\n
Dave:
Hey, everyone. Welcome to On The Market. I\u2019m your host, Dave Meyer. Today, we are going to be trying something a little bit new. For the first part of our show we have Clay Finck joining us, who is the host of the Millennial Investing podcast and is an expert on the stock market. And he\u2019s going to teach us and inform us about what is going on in the stock market right now.
And I know, listen, I work for BiggerPockets, I get that most of the people listening to this are active or aspiring real estate investors, but it is really important for real estate investors and investors of all type to understand what is going on in different asset classes. Because as Clay is going to explain to all of us today, you will see that there are correlations and that these asset classes, although they\u2019re different, are really interrelated and a lot of the same principles about investing apply.
During the second half of the show, Kathy, James and Henry joined me to break down what we learned from Clay and talk about how real estate investors should use the information that we learn and how to use the stock market to further your real estate investing career. I think you\u2019re all going to enjoy this new format, but if you have any feedback, thoughts about how we can improve, please make sure to let me know.
You can hit me up on Instagram, where I\u2019m @thedatadeli, or you can always find me on BiggerPockets. With that we\u2019re going to take a short break and then jump into our interview with Clay Finck from the Millennial Investing podcast.
Clay Finck, welcome to the On The Market podcast. Thanks so much for being here.<\/p>\n
Clay:
David, so excited to be here. Thank you so much for having me.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Of course. So, before we jump into what\u2019s going on in the stock market, can you give our audience a little bit of background about you and how you got into being such an expert on the stock market?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah. So, growing up, I was always pretty good at math. Math was kind of my thing and never really knew anything about investing growing up. Wish I learned about it sooner, but we all go on our own journey and figure it out one way or another. And never really talked about money growing up. But when I was 18 or 19, I read this biography of Warren Buffet.
Since I\u2019m from Nebraska, I was pretty familiar with Buffet and I was like, \u201cHow in the world did this guy become one of the richest people on the planet?\u201d And I was reading about this idea of investing and I\u2019m just like, \u201cWhy is no one talking about this?\u201d So, I just wanted to learn as much as I could about investing. And that\u2019s how I discovered the Investor\u2019s Podcast Network. Stig and Preston started that podcast back in 2014, and it was just very clear to me that they really knew what they were talking about.
They were founded on studying Warren Buffet and I just loved learning about it, learning about the markets, and just loved this idea of having your money work for you. And it\u2019s been said that the stock market is the most powerful wealth building machine that\u2019s out there. Some of your listeners might not agree with that. I know many people have become millionaires investing in real estate as well. Both methods work very well. And one of our hosts actually, Robert Leonard, he\u2019s my co-host on our Millennial Investing show, he actually provides these Buffet type principles to the real estate market where he invests in what he knows.
He invests in high probability type events where he can get high cash flow and has a high level of certainty. So, he has taken the ideas he\u2019s learned from the stock market and applied it to real estate. So, I went on to college and went the traditional corporate path. I worked in insurance for a few years and TIP had an opening for a host on their Millennial Investing show. And I was like, \u201cHeck, I\u2019ll just throw my hat in the ring.\u201d Didn\u2019t really expect to end up getting it, but here we are speaking today. I\u2019m about coming up on a year for being a host for the show and just having the time of my life, talking with some really good investors every week, it\u2019s a lot of fun.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Good for you. That\u2019s an awesome story, I really enjoyed hearing that. And I do think that our audience would probably debate on the stock market vs. real estate. But personally I believe that it doesn\u2019t have to be either\/or, that these things are supplementary. And that\u2019s the whole reason why we wanted to have you on to talk about how you can build wealth and even passive income through the stock market, which we\u2019ll get to in a minute. But I\u2019d like to start just by addressing the elephant in the room, which is the stock market\u2019s recent performance, at least over the over 2022, has been a fairly significant decline. So, could you give us a summary of where the market is today and maybe provide some historical context about the era we\u2019re in right now?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Absolutely. So, I just checked prior to this recording, the S&P 500\u2019s down roughly 20% year to date. A lot of investors are probably pretty spooked. And really what\u2019s been driving the markets, from our view, over the past few years is really driven by what the Federal Reserve is doing. And this is where it kind of goes over people\u2019s heads, but I\u2019m going to try and simplify things as much as I can here. So, the Federal Reserve just really has its hands in the overall financial markets.
If you just simply plot the money supply or the assets on the Fed\u2019s balance sheet, and you plot that against the S&P 500, which is just the general stock market trend, those are very highly correlated. So, if the Federal Reserve is printing more money, we\u2019re seeing the prices of financial assets like the stock market go up, and when they stop printing money or they kind of taper things down or normalize, then you see the stock market throw a fit and pull back.
And right now we\u2019re seeing that time where the Federal Reserve isn\u2019t being as accommodative to the markets and we\u2019re seeing the market pull back. And it\u2019s not the first time we\u2019ve seen this. Around March 2020, we had the COVID pandemic hit and financial markets were in a mess. We saw a really sharp draw down in stocks in March 2020, and the Federal Reserve was very accommodative during that time period, because they really needed to be, to prevent a global recession like 2008.
So, they were accommodative to the financial markets, they printed more money, they handed out these stimulus checks and these PPP loans, and the Fed said that inflation wouldn\u2019t really be a problem. Well, it ended up being a huge problem, and that\u2019s where we\u2019re at today. You have inflation running at, call it 8%, and the bond market, which a bond is really just a contract. You put down $1,000 today, and you might get some sort of yield on that until the bond\u2019s maturity and get your $1,000 back.
So, if bonds are yielding 3%, you lock in a contract to get a 3% yield. But inflation\u2019s 8%, then that\u2019s not really a good deal because you\u2019re losing purchasing power. So, that just really throws the markets in for a loop. And once the Fed realized that inflation wasn\u2019t really transitory, it looked like it was going to stick around, that\u2019s when they decided they wanted to contract the economy and try and not be as accommodative. And, again, that\u2019s why we\u2019re seeing things pull back. So, to put it really simply, the Fed\u2019s either expanding the money supply or they\u2019re contracting the money supply.
Since March 2020, they were really just expanding it, and we saw asset prices explode, stocks go up, real estate as well is kind of correlated with that. So, real estate markets went up as well. And interest rates play into it too, because the Fed has influence on where interest rates are set. So, right now the Fed isn\u2019t expanding or providing that easing, they\u2019re doing the opposite. So, the money supply is contracting a bit, they\u2019re taking some money out of the system. So, it\u2019s natural to think that the prices of those financial assets that were influenced by the expansion of the money supply is now seeing the opposite.
And I guess I\u2019ll also mention that if you look back at history, you look at, like I mentioned, March 2020, when the Fed needs to be accommodative to the markets, they will. So, it\u2019s my expectation that eventually things are likely to break down, so we\u2019re going to see some sort of breakdown in the economy. I don\u2019t know where exactly it\u2019s going to be. And once the Fed recognizes that liquidity needs to be added to the system, they need to provide more money to help fill the gap somewhere it\u2019s needed, they\u2019re going to do that.
They did that in March 2020. The repo market, which we don\u2019t have to dig into, it\u2019s essentially the plumbing of the financial system, that had liquidity issues in September 2019, and they stepped in and provided liquidity there, because that\u2019s really their job. They\u2019re the lender of last resort, they\u2019re the bank for banks. And since our economy is largely driven by credit and all these loans out there, a lot of the money out there is just loans given out by a bank. You can run into issues when there\u2019s liquidity issues, especially with these larger institutions.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Thank you for that. That\u2019s super helpful. So, it sounds like similar to the real estate market, we\u2019re just seeing that the Fed was being very supportive to the economy, and in particular when monetary supplies increase, you see asset values go up. That happened in real estate, that happened in the stock market. And now that the Fed is changing course, we are seeing that reverse in the stock market. Now it\u2019s not reversing yet in the housing market. We\u2019ve talked a lot about it on this show, so we\u2019re not going to get into that here.
But it sounds like what you\u2019re saying is that the Feds raising rates until inflation goes down, or until economic activity declines to the point where they\u2019re like, \u201cOkay, we can live with a little bit of inflation, but we have to add monetary supply to make sure this recession that we are likely in, or going into, doesn\u2019t get too deep and too serious.\u201d And if that\u2019s the case, do you expect the stock market to be in a bear market, or remain relatively flat until the Fed again changes course and starts adding liquidity in the market by lowering rates?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah, 100%. I think we could definitely see more downside given that the Fed is taking money out of the system and they\u2019re raising interest rates, and we can talk about that relationship if you\u2019d like, but yeah, I expect\u2026 I guess I shouldn\u2019t say I expect, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see more downside from here. The Fed is really trying to tackle the inflation problem. They don\u2019t really mind or care if people\u2019s stocks are going down now, because they really need to get a grip on inflation. But like you said, they\u2019re going to try and tighten as much as they can until something breaks in the economy.<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s just a terrifying statement, right? I keep hearing people say that. It\u2019s like, \u201cThey\u2019re going to tighten until something breaks.\u201d I can\u2019t believe that our economy is basically like inflation or breaking right now. Those are the two options it seems like.<\/p>\n
Clay:
Right. Well, in 2008 they started their quantitative easing program. They printed over a trillion dollars. So, they turned on that spigot and we\u2019ve come to find out over the last, call it 14 years, that it\u2019s really, really hard for them to turn that spigot off. And that\u2019s just the reality of the situation and the way I see it. So, I could see more downside for any financial asset market. It could be real estate, stocks, crypto, or whatever, but I do expect once they do reverse course, we\u2019ll see a strong rebound in the stock market for sure.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Yeah. I mean everything you\u2019re saying makes a lot of sense logically. So, we\u2019re seeing the stock market on a whole has a lot of interest rate sensitivity. Are there certain segments of stocks or certain types of stocks that do better or worse in this type of rising interest rate environment?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah. So, from a high level, I would say the valuation of stocks is really driven by two things currently. I talked about the money supply and how that has an effect on the stock market and how those are really correlated. But the other major driving factor is interest rates. The value of really any asset is based on the discounted future cash flow. So, if you\u2019re a real estate investor, say you have a, call it a property, that\u2019s $100,000. That might be the price someone\u2019s offering it to you. You can look at what\u2019s that going to produce per month or per year, and kind of project that out.
And using those cash flows, you can come up with some sort of reasonable or conservative value what you would pay for that property. So, it\u2019s the same idea for the stock market. In terms of which types of stocks are hurt more by higher interest rates, it\u2019s pretty obvious just looking at the past performance of some stocks. In the low rate environment we saw in 2020 and 2021, the \u201cgrowth names\u201d are the ones that tend to do really well in that environment. So, the companies that ARK invest in that grow at 100% per year, don\u2019t really have much earnings today. They may in the future.
Companies like Tesla growing very fast, don\u2019t really have too much for earnings today. Very fast growing companies do well in a low rate environment. And when you look at it through the discounted cash flow lens, that makes sense, because they have earnings really far out into the future. Tesla, they may have a lot of earnings in 10 years. When you discount that at 2%, that really doesn\u2019t bring down those earnings too much. But if you discount it at 6% or 8%, that really hurts the value of Tesla today. So, that\u2019s why you\u2019ve seen the higher growth companies get hurt more.
And then you look at say a stable company that isn\u2019t growing near as fast, you can call that a value stock. I\u2019ll just pull a company like Costco. It\u2019s a very stable company, they have strong cash flows and it\u2019s very reasonable to think that those cash flows are going to continue to grow over time. Well, Costco isn\u2019t down near as much as many of these other growth names, because of the way it\u2019s valued and also how the market perceives the riskiness in that sort of company. So, I guess the big takeaway here is that the value of stocks are really driven by Federal Reserve policy, for sure, and then also interest rates as well.
So, a big question might be, where are interest rates going to go in the future? You have some people saying that we\u2019re going to see higher rates because of the high inflation. I would maybe push back on that, because the Fed wants to maybe be accommodative in the future. So, that would mean they would need to lower rates to stimulate the economy. But in terms of my strategy, I just look to try and buy and hold really good companies, or just simply index funds. And we can dig into that if you\u2019d like as well.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Yeah, that\u2019s a great segue, because I do want to talk to our audience who is mostly real estate investors, aspiring investors, but I would imagine that the vast majority of people listening are also interested in investing in the stock market. And even if you\u2019re not, understanding the stock market is vitally important because what happens in one major asset class like the stock market, or you reference the bond market earlier, has a huge implication on what happens in the real estate market and vice versa.
Because investors are always chasing yield, they\u2019re chasing the best opportunity, and so if some asset classes are performing poorly and other ones are doing well, you could see money going from the stock market or crypto into real estate or vice versa. So, even if you\u2019re not interested in investing, it\u2019s super important to understand this. But I do want to talk about if there are opportunities right now, because I am a complete novice, but I look at the stock market and I\u2019m fortunate because I\u2019m not trying to retire anytime soon.
And so, although I don\u2019t like seeing my portfolio go down, I have confidence that it will go back up in the future. And I\u2019m looking at some of these stocks, I\u2019m like, \u201cOoh, it\u2019s a sale.\u201d There\u2019s all this stuff discounted. Is that a stupid way to look at it, or are there actually opportunities right now?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah, absolutely you can find opportunities out there. I guess zooming out a bit, TIP was really founded on studying Warren Buffet\u2019s value investing principles. So, we are looking to pay a fair price for the investments we have. For those who aren\u2019t familiar with Buffet, he\u2019s really looking for businesses that are really easy to understand, companies that have a strong moat or competitive advantage, so their earnings are expected to continue far into the future. And he is looking for a company that\u2019s trading at a price that\u2019s attractive to him.
And then it\u2019s also companies that are growing and have stable earnings and have good management. So, I do have like a watch list of stocks that I\u2019m keeping my eye on. And we have a tool here at TIP, there are a lot of stock investing tools, but TIP has one called TIP Finance that I use to determine an expected return I can get on a stock. So, I could punch in what\u2019s the stock going to earn maybe next year? What do I expect those earnings to grow at? And then essentially there\u2019s a calculator that says if you bought the stock today, you would get this return.
So, that\u2019s kind of my process for how I\u2019m looking at stocks. At any point in time you might have good opportunities, it\u2019s just depending on what sort of yield or rate of return you\u2019re looking to get. Apple might be trading at $150 today, say I could punch it in the calculator, say I come up with a call it a 6% or 8% expected return. Obviously the price could go even lower, but that pushes my expected return even higher. So, when you find those companies that you want to own for the long term and they\u2019re really good businesses and they aren\u2019t materially affected by these short term swings in the market, then you can treat any dip as a buying opportunity given you\u2019re applying those strict principles and buying those really good businesses.
Outside of that, I\u2019m always dollar cost averaging into index funds. I specifically do VOO and QQQ. VOO is just an S&P 500 fund, which is just the general stock market. And then QQQ is just a technology ETF, which is like the Nasdaq, so it\u2019s many of the big tech companies.<\/p>\n
Dave:
I love the idea of dollar cost averaging. It\u2019s actually something I do both in the stock market, still doing it now buying in at a regular interval. I do it with real estate as well, but could you just explain to our audience what dollar cost averaging is?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah. So, dollar cost averaging is essentially taking the timing out of the market completely. So, say you get paid from your job every two weeks on Friday, you can set up, say with Vanguard, you can set up an automatic purchase of say an index fund, like VOO. So, I can set up on Vanguard every two weeks the day I get paid, I\u2019m going to put this much into the ETF. There\u2019s a ton of benefits to this. You\u2019re taking timing and the emotions completely out of it. If you just let the money pile up in your bank account, you might try and buy when things are really hot. So, you\u2019re buying really high, which is not a good thing obviously. And then when things dump down to the drain, you might be trying to sell.
So, it really just automates your whole process and takes the human emotions out of it. So, I think both of those are really key. And you mentioned the real estate. I hear so many people saying that, \u201cOh, I don\u2019t want to get into real estate, because the market\u2019s going to crash,\u201d or whatever. Well, eventually it might crash. It\u2019s crashed occasionally in the past, but if you apply that dollar cost averaging strategy, say you buy one or two properties a year for five years, maybe you have one bad year, but all the other years are going to more than make up for that. So, that\u2019s kind of how I think about it in terms of real estate, and I think dollar cost averaging is a really good strategy for real estate investors as well.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Totally. It makes so much sense. I mean I\u2019m someone who spends half of my life analyzing the housing market and data and what\u2019s going on there. And I think I know what might happen in the housing market, but no one knows for sure. And I imagine you probably feel similarly about the stock market. You are informed, educated, have good opinions and logical thoughts, but things happen that you can\u2019t foresee. And I think that the dollar cost averaging is so great, because it\u2019s just the humble approach.
It\u2019s just admitting that you don\u2019t know what is going to happen in the market. But what you do know is that over time asset markets, both the stock market and real estate market, go up. And if you could just attach yourself to the average over time, you are going to have tremendous benefit to your financial situation. So, thank you for explaining that. That\u2019s something I really like. One specific part of the stock market I wanted to ask you about was dividend stocks. Because a lot of people who listen to this, and myself included, get into real estate because they\u2019re interested in financial independence and the FIRE movement, and that is centered a lot around cash flow.
And that\u2019s why a lot of people love real estate so much, is because it offers cash flow in addition to appreciation and tax benefits and all the rest. But to me, dividend stocks are sort of the equivalent of a cash flowing house in the stock market. So, I\u2019m curious if you could just first tell our audience what a dividend stock is, and is now a good time to look at any particular dividend stocks?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah. Well, I wanted to say to your point earlier, people look at the real estate market or look at the stock market and they just see all this risk. The market could crash this year. Well, what\u2019s your alternative? Just hold cash your whole entire life? Well, you have to look at what are the opportunity costs? What are you going to do if you don\u2019t invest in real estate, or don\u2019t invest in stocks? Holding cash is a guaranteed losing strategy.
So, like you said, dollar cost averaging helps reduce that risk in the market. And then having that long term approach also almost eliminates your risk. Buying and holding quality real estate or quality companies and holding them for a very long time takes that risk out of it. So, having the right mindset and just being educated on why you\u2019re buying what you are, I think is really powerful. In terms of dividend stocks, so companies essentially earn money, earn profits, and they can do two things really, I guess, three things with that money.
They could either pay out those earnings as a dividend. So, if you own Coca-Cola stock and they pay out a dollar per share in dividends, then the shareholders get that dividend. Other things the company could do with those earnings is either buy back shares. So, many companies do this. Apple is one that is very popular for doing this and has led to the stock performance doing very well. So, they can take some of those earnings and buy back the shares. That makes the existing shareholders own more of the business. Buffet\u2019s a huge fan of share buybacks.
And the third thing a company can do with their earnings is just simply reinvest back into the business. And different strategies are good for different companies. A company that\u2019s more in growth mode, say like Tesla, they do not want to pay a dividend because they have all these opportunities in the market in terms of electric vehicles and reinvesting back into the business. And essentially they believe they can get a high rate of return on their money should they just reinvest back into the business and go out and produce more cars, or do whatever Elon thinks is best.
While a company like Coca-Cola is a whole lot more mature, so they\u2019re going to want to reward shareholders for owning their stock and pay a dividend. So, that\u2019s the reason dividends even exists in the first place. For someone who\u2019s newer to investing, I think index funds are a really good place to start for dividends. I\u2019m going to mention two here. One is VYM, which is a Vanguard high dividend ETF. I think it\u2019s a really good option. They pay a dividend quarterly, which is every three months. So, you get four dividend payments per year.
And at the time of this recording the yields about 2.7%. So, every $100 you put in, you\u2019d get around $2.70 In that first year based on what the dividend performance has been over the last 12 months. And it looks like the stock price right now is around $100 actually. And I did add up the dividends over the last 12 months and it was actually $3.20. And just to try and look at how has that changed over time, the dividend five years ago was $2.30. So, the dividend itself has increased by 40% over time, meaning that those companies earnings have grown over time, they\u2019ve decided to increase those dividends over time.
So, a lot of these really good companies that pay dividends are going to increase the dividend rate at least by, call it 5%. At least the rate of inflation is what I would expect. And another option newer investors might consider is VIG. This one is geared more towards dividend appreciation. It\u2019s another Vanguard ETF, and the yield on this one\u2019s about 1.7% and their dividend per share has grown even more than that 40% for VYM. And outside of that, investors might consider individual stocks. To get a start, you could just look at the holdings of these index funds to get ideas.
And some companies that stand out to me are Home Depot, Walmart, Microsoft, and Lockheed Martin. Some of these might pay a dividend higher or lower than these index funds, but I just wanted to run a few rules of thumb I have when it comes to picking dividend stocks. Number one would be do not chase a yield. If a stock has a yield of over 5% in today\u2019s market, that is a huge red flag to me. So many people I see got suckered into buying AT&T. It had a 6% dividend yield at 30 bucks a share and people were thinking that there was no risk buying this company, they paid an incredible dividend, it will be around forever.
Well, they ended up cutting their dividends substantially, and now the stock\u2019s trading at around $21 per share. So, when the dividend yield is 5% or more, that\u2019s the market\u2019s way of telling me that this is probably not a great stock to hold and it\u2019s probably a lot riskier than you might think. Then again when it comes to dividend investing, you want to be in it for the long haul. So, it\u2019s probably not the best place to park cash that you need within the next year or two. Dividend stocks probably aren\u2019t your best bet for short term cash.
And then if it were me, I\u2019d, again, try and stick to Buffet\u2019s principles. Companies that are easy to understand, they have a strong moat and competitive advantage, and they have generally a lower PE and they\u2019re more of a value stock rather than a gross stock.<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s awesome. Thank you so much. I think there\u2019s this thought process in the world of real estate that there\u2019s no way to get cash flow from the stock market, but clearly there is, but the cash flow rates are probably not what you would expect in real estate. I actually tend on the lower side of caring about cash flow right now, but you still want 5%, 6% cash flow minimum. Some people are only looking for deals over 10%.
But if you are looking for a diversified portfolio that produces cash flow, dividend stocks can provide the dual benefits that cash flow in real estate do, which is the ability to generate some cash, albeit probably less in terms of cash on cash return, but still can appreciate and provide appreciation as well. Clay, this has been super helpful. We do have to go soon, but is there anything else you think our audience should know about the current state of the stock market or any opportunities you see?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah. I guess one thing I wanted to mention is that given all this stuff with the Fed, two billionaires that have had a huge impact on TIP is obviously Warren Buffet, but another one\u2019s actually Ray Dalio. And Ray Dalio is actually very popular for this thesis he put together related to the long term debt cycle and what I was talking about earlier. Essentially the Feds kind of in this really difficult situation where they want to tackle inflation, but they want to keep markets stable.
And they just really have this big conundrum. And what I will say is that I think we could be heading for a really inflationary time period. They really want to tackle inflation now, but they might not have a good way to really do that. They might not have a way to tackle that inflation problem without things really breaking down and we enter a really bad recession. So, given what we\u2019ve learned from Ray Dalio, we think money printing is likely to continue and that might mean a really inflationary time period.
And you might think about how you might position yourself if we enter that sort of time period. And I can\u2019t help but think about real estate investors. They are in the perfect situation for this type of scenario where they\u2019re taking on a loan and they have these, it\u2019s likely a 30 year fixed loan or 15 year, whatever the loan term might be, but oftentimes it\u2019s a fixed mortgage. So, you\u2019re making those fixed payments every month. So, if you have high inflation, that means your payments are getting easier to pay off over time.
If you have good real estate, you likely have tenants occupying that real estate every single month. So, rents are increasing over time, because there\u2019s inflation. So, that\u2019s just extra profit for you. Also, obviously your expenses are going to increase some as well, but I guess extra icing on the cake is what you real estate investors might call it is the appreciation. If there\u2019s an inflationary time period, the dollar becomes worth less over time. It might be a different currency for you given you\u2019re in Europe, depending on where you\u2019re investing, but the dollar\u2019s becoming worth less over time.
So, that means the appreciation of real estate. So, it\u2019s just this really good scenario for real estate investors, I think, given they\u2019re buying and holding quality properties. And then the same thing kind of applies to quality individual stocks. The great companies are able to increase their prices over time, they have that pricing power to be an inflation hedge and help them weather through that storm.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Clay, that was awesome. I wasn\u2019t expecting a real estate investing pitch from you, but I certainly appreciate it. This has been super helpful. And I think on behalf of our audience, who might not be as familiar with this topic, this has been a great primer and helps understand the state of the current stock market and the economy as a whole. If people want to learn more about the stock market or you, Clay, where can they do that?<\/p>\n
Clay:
Yeah. I host the Millennial Investing podcast. That\u2019s the name of the show. It\u2019s under the Investors Podcast Network is the company. They have two different shows under their network. My co-host, Robert Leonard, actually has a real estate show as well. It\u2019s called Real Estate 101. So, he hosts a show that\u2019s released on Mondays, and then I host a show on the Millennial Investing feed that we release on Tuesdays and Thursdays.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Awesome. Great. I was actually chatting with Robert earlier today and hopefully we\u2019re going to have him on the show at some point too, because he seems like a great investor to connect with. Clay, thank you so much. If you want to learn more, check out Clay\u2019s podcast. We really appreciate you being here.<\/p>\n
Clay:
Thanks so much, David.<\/p>\n
Dave:
For the second part of our episode today, I am joined by Kathy Fettke, James Dainard and Henry Washington to talk about what everything we just learned from Clay means for aspiring and active real estate investors. Henry, what do you think of the conversation with Clay?<\/p>\n
Henry:
I enjoyed it, man. Here\u2019s why I enjoyed it. One, he was a bigger fan of real estate than I thought he was going to be, so that\u2019s awesome.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Totally. I thought he was going to just be slamming on real estate the whole time, but he\u2019s kind of supported us.<\/p>\n
Henry:
Absolutely. I love the way he summed up the economic market that we\u2019re in and that we may see an inflationary period continue and the best hedge in his eyes for doing that. He felt like real estate investors were in the best position given that economic environment, because we\u2019ve talked about it many times as real estate being an amazing hedge against inflation. So, that\u2019s comforting to hear in a world of not comforting news every day. And also there was a lot of reinforcement around, because I get questions a lot around real estate versus a stock market versus crypto and where should I be putting my money and should I be investing in any of them, because they all seem to not be doing great based on some sort of outsider\u2019s perspective.
And the theme that I heard was longterm investing, no matter your market or investment platform, seems to be what people should be looking at. Is you buy things that you feel like, A, are good companies or are good properties and you buy them when you feel like the market conditions best suit you. And then you hold those things for the long term and you see the trajectory of the stock market. If you take a zoomed out look at the stock market over the last 50 years, you\u2019re going to see a growth, right? Same thing with real estate. And so be smart about your injuries, buy things that you feel like are valuable that fit your investing strategy, and then hold those great things and you should see a decent return.<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s great input. Yeah, it seems like the same foundational principles hold true whether you\u2019re talking about rental property investing or holding onto a good stock, it\u2019s really about long term growth. And I know that in the stock market, people do day trade or swing trade during good times. Maybe that\u2019s not true right now and they should be focusing on those principles, like Clay said. James, what did you take away from the conversation?<\/p>\n
James:
At the end of the day, investors are just looking for the same types of investment engines. As he walked through the simplicity of the stock market and just the basic investment engines, it\u2019s just so similar to real estate in general. There\u2019s the growth stocks that are just like flipping properties, there\u2019s the dividend stocks that are like holding properties. Like for me as an investor, I\u2019m doing buy and hold, I\u2019m doing development, I\u2019m doing fix and flip. And I kind of have this pie chart I work with of how I want to work my capital, and it\u2019s really no different than what they do in the stock market. And it\u2019s amazing that they\u2019re all tied together so dramatically.
With the stocks, like what he was talking about with the Fed and how they printed too much money and how much these growth stocks increased rapidly, it was the same things with flips. Flips did the exact same thing. As the Fed printed more money, these things grew so quickly, and so everybody has been crushing it the last couple years. And now everyone\u2019s trying to also figure out what\u2019s that magic portfolio. Where do you put your money? How do you grow it steadily? And the growth stocks or those flip properties are going to be harder to do in the near future.
But the biggest takeaway I had was, at the end of the day we\u2019re just investors buying different types of assets and we\u2019re all trying to beat inflation. And there\u2019s tons of different ways that you can cut up your investments, it\u2019s a matter of what you want to do and how much risk you want to have.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Yeah, I love the parallel. He did really make it simple. I sometimes feel like I know something about the stock market, then I\u2019m quickly reminded that I don\u2019t know anything about it. But he did really make it understandable in a way that you can relate to, like you were just saying, like there are flips and growth stocks, there\u2019s different levels of risk. And it seems like when monetary policy was so easy recently, just like it was in real estate, people were just taking risks and now people are becoming more risk averse. And it\u2019s easy in the stock market to sell something when you become risk averse. And that\u2019s why prices can fall so much faster, relatively to real estate. Kathy, what about you? What do you think of the conversation with Clay?<\/p>\n
Kathy:
Well, it just reminded me that there\u2019s a big difference between active and passive investing. And a lot of what we talk about here and at BiggerPockets is active investing, but when you\u2019ve got lots of people who are busy with the job that they\u2019re doing, the stock market exists for them because it\u2019s really passive, right? And you can have somebody manage that for you if you don\u2019t have the time to study it. Like I wouldn\u2019t. Today obviously there\u2019s a lot of options that didn\u2019t exist when I was in my twenties where you could just go on your phone and all of a sudden you\u2019ve bought a stock or sold a stock.
It\u2019s really easy to do today. But the bottom line is stocks are investing in businesses. So, if you pick a business that you believe in or that\u2019s relevant, it\u2019s got to stay relevant. So, any investment, it\u2019s so important to pay attention if you don\u2019t have somebody managing it for you, because big companies that seem steady can become obsolete when new technology wipes them out. Look at Netflix, for example. They were able to adapt with the times. But think of all the companies that went under, who didn\u2019t. Netflix went to streaming and they really nailed it, although I don\u2019t know if they\u2019re making any profit and I wouldn\u2019t necessarily invest there because I would need somebody to manage my stocks, because I don\u2019t have the time to study.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Do you invest in the stock market though?<\/p>\n
Kathy:
Yeah, we do a little, because we wanted to play with the new things that are out there and then just buy stocks on our phone and see what people are doing. And in 2020 it just made sense. So many solid companies were down, so we bought the dip and that worked out really well. And even with stocks going down this year, we made money. So, that was just fun. I look at it more like a gamble, a fun little gamble that we were trying to learn. But if I were going to put millions in the stock market, you better believe I would have someone manage that for me, who has an excellent track record. And that\u2019s the same in real estate. I feel like sometimes passive investors get snubbed a little bit, because they have to trust someone else. They\u2019re busy or they\u2019re retired and they don\u2019t have time to be active.
And that\u2019s why syndications can be so great, because it\u2019s like a stock. It\u2019s usually in an LLC, which is you\u2019re buying a unit versus a stock, because it\u2019s, again, in a LLC. But it\u2019s the same idea, you\u2019re trusting someone else to manage this investment for you because they know it better, they have more experience, and they have the time and maybe you don\u2019t. That\u2019s what I\u2019ve been doing for years. And I sometimes see in the comments, \u201cWhy would someone buy a \u201cturnkey\u201d property? Well, because they\u2019re busy.
I have people from all over the world that can\u2019t come to America to do the things that active investors do. There\u2019s lots of passive investors out there that need the stock market, that need syndications, that need turnkey property.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Totally. I mean BiggerPockets was basically invented because most people don\u2019t want to take the time to learn about other asset classes. It\u2019s just like sort of the default, right? You grow up and you\u2019re taught the way to invest is the stock market. You don\u2019t even really necessarily learn that there are other ways to invest. And I think that\u2019s changing largely because of BiggerPockets and crypto and what you all are doing. But I think that\u2019s a really interesting point about how syndications and passive real estate investing is a good alternative for people who might have heard this episode and think, \u201cNo, stock market\u2019s not for me.\u201d Henry, what is your personal experience and exposure to the stock market?<\/p>\n
Henry:
I started investing in the stock market, well, probably late 2020, early 2021, and I did it. Like a lot of people we were home during the pandemic and I found myself with more time to research things than I typically had. And so I had also started a side hustle that started to produce income, more income than I was expecting it to produce. And so I had cash sitting in a bank account and that scared me. And so I wanted to put that somewhere where I could put it fairly quickly and yield and get a return on it. And so like with real estate, yes, I could have put it to work in real estate, but not as quickly. I\u2019ve got to go out and I\u2019ve got to find a good deal to put the money into and those sorts of things.
And so I started to learn about the stock market, and what I learned was there\u2019s a lot to learn, just like with real estate. And so I wanted to be as simple and as hands off as possible while still managing it myself. And so I just decided to buy about two to three companies that I believe in, and I would dollar cost average into those. They talked a little bit about that on the show, what dollar cost averaging is. And so I dollar cost averaged into two to three stocks that I believed in, or individual companies, and then as well as two to three ETFs.
And I haven\u2019t veered from that strategy. The plan is to hold them for at least 10 years. And so I don\u2019t pay attention to when it\u2019s up and when it\u2019s down, because I haven\u2019t hit my time to look at whether I should liquidate those or not. And so it literally takes the emotion out of it for me. If things are tanking, the news doesn\u2019t scare me, because my plan is to hold and I will just stick to that plan regardless of what the market\u2019s doing. I<\/p>\n
Dave:
I am surprised, honestly, Henry and Kathy both pick individual stocks. I thought all three of you would say, \u201cOh, I just put in an index fund, or I just use betterment,\u201d or something like that or one of those robo-advisors, but I respect it. But I guess if you\u2019re just treating it as something fun, Kathy, you would just pick something because that is more fun. James, are you the same way? Do you pick individual stocks?<\/p>\n
James:
Unfortunately I do. One of the worst things I ever did was download the trading app on my phone, because like Kathy say, it\u2019s kind of gambling for me.<\/p>\n
Dave:
It\u2019s just a game. Yeah. They make it into a game. It\u2019s fun.<\/p>\n
Kathy:
Yeah.<\/p>\n
James:
It is a game that I\u2019m not good at, that\u2019s what I\u2019ve learned. Because I\u2019m a buy it whole guy, but I\u2019m also a flipper and on the short term I\u2019m not good at being patient. I would say I have made the mistake and the funny thing is when people come into my office as a real estate broker, I always tell my clients, \u201cDon\u2019t buy what you don\u2019t know, because it\u2019s high risk. And if you don\u2019t really understand it, learn about it, go to BiggerPockets and get educated. Because if you make uneducated decisions, you can have some major consequences out of that.\u201d And then soon as I tell people that, I turn around, get on my little app, and I start buying stuff and selling stuff and it goes red.
I pick the individual stocks. I have a self-directed IRA. I did roll into one that\u2019s in just more of an index fund, works for steady growth. I kind of go that route. It was a very small IRA. Other than that, I have slowly pulled my cash out of my app and what I have learned is, Henry is completely right, buying the long term, like buying and steadily growing is the right move, because I don\u2019t know what I\u2019m doing. If I\u2019m a flipper and I get into the market, or I\u2019m a buy it whole person, I get into start flipping and I haven\u2019t learned my processes, it\u2019s not going to go that well.
And if I don\u2019t know it, I go for steady growth. Because other than that, I\u2019m just making uneducated\u2026 Actually a good buddy of mine, he\u2019s a financial planner, he just said, he goes, \u201cWhat you\u2019re doing is no different than gambling, and you might as well have more fun and go to Vegas.\u201d He\u2019s like, \u201cBecause you\u2019re sitting in your bed playing on your app when you could be having this great time in Vegas.\u201d He goes, \u201cAnd your odds are better there than what you\u2019re doing right now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kathy:
And you get free drinks.<\/p>\n
James:
Free drinks. But I have definitely got some tax write offs this year from the trading app.<\/p>\n
Henry:
Took some losses.<\/p>\n
James:
I took a bad one. I went up against Elon Musk and that was a bad idea.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Oh, I sold my Tesla stock way too early. It was a huge mistake.<\/p>\n
James:
You know what\u2019s a bigger mistake, shorting the Tesla stock.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Oh, okay. I didn\u2019t do that bad. So, I actually saw something, and we all mentioned like going on these trading apps that make it super easy, and I saw this study that showed that there is a negative correlation between how frequently you look at your portfolio and your returns. So, it\u2019s basically like they get you to open it and the more you open it, the worse you do. Because you\u2019re just, like Henry said, you\u2019re supposed to buy it for long term, unless you are a super sophisticated day trader and you really know what you\u2019re doing there.
But I thought that was super interesting. So, one thing that I started looking through old BiggerPockets forums to look at questions about the stock market before we recorded this episode. And one thing that people have asked is should they put money into the stock market to save up for a deal? Maybe you\u2019ve done one deal, you\u2019re waiting for that second deal, you\u2019re putting money in. Would you put it in the stock market? Have you ever done that, or is that something you would consider, Kathy?<\/p>\n
Kathy:
Oh no, I haven\u2019t done that. I really like, talking about passive investing, I would prefer to do notes and lend to flippers who have a track record. Because to me that\u2019s a solid, safe return, it\u2019s secured generally to the property, and it would be three or four month hold. That\u2019s where I put it and generally get about 10 to 12% that I can really count on and I don\u2019t have to worry. One of the things they said is we\u2019re talking about the Fed and when the Fed makes decisions, it affects the stock market a lot, and we have no control over that. We don\u2019t know what they\u2019re going to do and sometimes they don\u2019t get it right.
And you can see people in the stock market follow every single word that is said at any Fed meeting, because they know that then it\u2019s going to matter in a moment. So, I don\u2019t want to be nervous all the time. So, I had a roommate who was a day trader and he would just be depressed all the time. It was like bipolar, he\u2019d be up and he\u2019d be down. I can\u2019t do that. So, something like just lending, that\u2019s where I put my short term money.<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s fantastic advice, because I honestly have put money into the stock market between deals, because it\u2019s more liquid. But that\u2019s obviously when it\u2019s easier to do that in a bull market that you have confidence is going to continue like the last couple of years, because there\u2019s, sure, short term fluctuations, but you can wait a week and sell it and probably do okay. Right now, I mean according to Clay, he thinks there\u2019s more downside risk in the stock market. So, right now just parking it somewhere to buy something in six months you could come away with less. So, definitely a little bit riskier. James, do you have anything you do to in between deals, or anything you recommend to people, like Kathy said, for parking your money in between investments into real estate?<\/p>\n
James:
Yeah. I think when you\u2019re making that decision, the first thing that you want to really look at is if I\u2019m trying to get to buy into another deal, I need to figure out how much money do I need to buy that deal. So, I have to figure out what kind of deal do I want to buy? How much capital do I need for that? Is it a cheap single family house where I can put very little money down, lever it up and get most back? Is it a multi-family where I\u2019m going to leave more money in? And then based on that you have to go the stock market is going to make me 5% or 6% for the year. Is that going to grow fast enough for me to get to that down payment?
And many times, for me, it doesn\u2019t get there fast enough. And so you have to kind of move your money around into higher yield items, like Kathy said. I do a lot of hard money lending. I\u2019m buying and selling notes all the time. I\u2019m doing short term loans. I like it, because I know how to underwrite it correctly and I can mitigate my risk. If I\u2019m buying that stock and it\u2019s going down or there\u2019s a probability it\u2019s going to go down if I\u2019m buying it, I don\u2019t know that as well as I know underwriting. So for me, I\u2019m a real estate professional that\u2019s actively in the market, so I can look at things, I can evaluate the risk on those a lot better as far as lending on a house than I can evaluating a stock.
And so if you want to grow that nest egg, you want to do what you\u2019re good at, because you don\u2019t want that to go down. And as an investor, you want to evaluate what are you good at? What is your talent? And then I would invest in those sectors. If you\u2019re good at shorting stocks, then go short some stocks and try to earn a little bit more money that way. If you\u2019re not good at it, but you want steady yield, the one big thing you want to do is make sure you\u2019re beating inflation or staying with inflation right now.
Because if you are saving up for that next deal and your money\u2019s going down every year, that\u2019s a problem. And so depending on your talents, you want to pick the right engines and either just mitigate risk by not getting eaten alive by inflation, or if you want to grow faster, which I\u2019m a fast person, I\u2019m always looking for those high pop, high profit things or high yield, because I\u2019m trying to grow that nest egg bigger so I can go buy more. And I\u2019m always about trying to get that nest egg as big as possible. And so the higher, the yield, which are short term notes, flips, shortening stocks, could be crypto bubbles, those things, those growth, that\u2019s what\u2019s going to get you a little faster.
But you have to be comfortable with risk. Just like anything, you can lose it as quick as you can make it. And so you want to evaluate yourself and then make the right investments.<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s really interesting, because it sounds like all three of you are saying that the traditional idea that you should diversify your portfolio, at least across different asset classes, is not how you look at your portfolio and how you allocate capital to your investments. Henry, I saw you laughing. What do you think about that?<\/p>\n
Henry:
Yeah, no, I totally agree with you. So, I would say less than 10% of my net worth is invested in the stock market and crypto combined. And so I don\u2019t have a ton of my wealth in those markets, because I just love real estate, I understand real estate, for all the reasons James just said. If I need money quick, I know how to do that in real estate better than I know how to do that in any other type of market. If I need money long term, I know how to do that in real estate better than I know how to do that in the stock market or crypto or anywhere else.
And so I am going to diversify my portfolio within real estate first, because I understand most investment strategies in the real estate realm well. Whereas in the stock market, I understand one strategy, and it\u2019s not a strategy that returns me tons and tons of dollars a month over month. It\u2019s a long term play. And I don\u2019t even know if that worked yet, because it hasn\u2019t been 10 years of me holding those stocks, right? So, like you said during the interview, it\u2019s putting the average to work for you.
If I zoom out 10 years, I can see that there\u2019s probably going to be growth within that 10 years based on history in the stock market, and I\u2019m betting that that continues over the next 10 years. It\u2019s just taking the averages and putting them in my favor. TBD on how well it works and\/or doesn\u2019t work. So, if I need money quickly, I\u2019m going to look within real estate, just like Kathy or James is, to turn some money around quickly, versus anywhere else.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Kathy, I\u2019m curious with the people you work with, you often, correct me if I\u2019m wrong, raise money from a lot of passive investors. Are a lot of just generally speaking the people who invest with you, primarily invested in other asset classes and then they turn to you for real estate diversification? Or are these people who are like primarily real estate investors?<\/p>\n
Kathy:
It kind of started with people who maybe sensed something was wrong. Our company started in 2003, so you could kind of see this might not turn out well. And people who could sense that wanted to get their money out of the stock market and into something else that just felt more stable. And at the time we were helping people buy cash flow properties in Texas [inaudible 00:57:55]. They were brand new and they cash flowed, and it made sense. So, we had a lot of people self-direct their IRAs, get it out of the market, buy these solid properties in Texas, and they didn\u2019t even feel that downturn.
So, that was exciting to be able to help people avert catastrophe. And if you\u2019re in your fifties and sixties and seventies, you are not taking risks. My nephews take big risks. They live in their cars, they make over $100,000 and they totally gamble with it. And my sweet nephew, he lost all of it because he betted against some things and he was wrong. But that\u2019s okay, he\u2019s young, he\u2019s in his early twenties. But when you\u2019re in your fifties and sixties, you don\u2019t want to start over.
So, a lot of these people just saw what happened in 2008, are starting to get the jitters again, just don\u2019t want to lose everything again. So, when we can show them, look, we have syndications where you\u2019re secured in a first position, or there\u2019s low LTVs on this. When we can show them it\u2019s a hard asset, that cash flows and isn\u2019t a growth market, that feels better to people who are looking at retirement or well into retirement.<\/p>\n
Dave:
And do you see it as risky yourself being almost primarily invested in real estate? Almost entirely, I should say, almost entirely invested in real estate.<\/p>\n
Kathy:
The biggest risk I\u2019ve taken in real estate is not listening to myself, honestly. I give all this advice and then sometimes don\u2019t take it. But a lot of the syndications we first did were slam dunks, because we were buying in 2010, everything was so cheap. Then we\u2019ve been very much into land development and that has been highly challenged and doesn\u2019t cash flow. So, I\u2019m not looking for more ground up development deals, even though I\u2019m sure people have made lots of money in them. That tends to be a little bit more risky. So, just as a passive investor, you just kind of got to know which investments are riskier than others. If you\u2019re going to go into an apartment, say that\u2019s a C class apartment, and it has a deep, deep renovation. There\u2019s a little bit more risk there, because you\u2019re renovating something.
We had a lot of challenges with something like that that we did, whereas you\u2019re going to buy more of a B or A class newer property that only needs a little bit of renovation and is in a really good part of town, that\u2019s going to be less risk, especially if the loan is lower. So , if the LTV is going to be\u2026 I have older investors who they don\u2019t want to invest in anything where the LTVs over 65%, and others just don\u2019t want risk. And that\u2019s fine.
And so that\u2019s a lot of what we focus on is we offer different things where it\u2019ll be just a lending fund at 60% LTV, that\u2019s\u2026 You\u2019re not supposed to say safe, but that\u2019s pretty secure versus the land development where I\u2019ll go into it saying, \u201cLook, this is risky, but the return could be really amazing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s great advice. I mean within every asset class, crypto, stock, real estate, there are levels of risk. And even if you want to pick one, if you want to invest entirely in real estate, you can diversify your portfolio across types of real estate investing, just like you can do in the stock market too. I don\u2019t know enough about crypto to really comment on strategies there, but I\u2019m with James. My crypto record looks like James\u2019s stock record, I think. But I will just say before we go, I guess I take a little bit more diverse approach here.
I\u2019d say probably 25% of my net worth, 30% maybe is in the stock market. And honestly, I think it\u2019s mostly because of FOMO. I don\u2019t want to like miss out if the stock market goes on some run. But I do generally, at least over the last few years, have put money into the stock market, tried to let it improve while I\u2019m waiting between deals. But that\u2019s because the stock market was clearly in a bull market over the last decade and it was pretty, relatively safe to just buy into index funds.
So, there are definitely different approaches to it. It sounds like the three of you almost entirely in real estate, but I do think there\u2019s a good amount of smaller investors, myself being one of them, who do a little bit more diversification. Because I am a lot passive, just like Kathy was saying, have a full-time job and like to look for different ways to invest passively. Okay. Well, thank you, all three of you for that. That was super helpful. And if you all listening to this, like this kind of episode, we\u2019d love to hear from you.
You can find any of us on Instagram, but I think what we\u2019re really looking for is are these types of shows where we look at other asset classes or alternative types of investment through the lens of real estate investing, are helpful to you? We would love to know. So, please reach out to us. Before we go, we do want to go back to our real estate roots. We actually have a deal scenario, but first let\u2019s take a quick break and move to our crowd source.
All right, today\u2019s deal scenario for our crowd source is contributed from the BiggerPockets forums by a member named Ryan Williams. And Ryan says that this scenario is very common in his market, which is Denver. And he says that multifamily prices are very high. For the most part they don\u2019t cash flow with just traditional rentals. If you had the capital to swing an initial loss or get close to breaking even, is trusting future appreciation and rent growth enough to make purchasing these high price multi-families a good deal for investors? James, let\u2019s start with you. What do you make of the situation?<\/p>\n
James:
I think my first question would be is how much liquidity do you have to feed this engine? And is that going to prevent you from doing other investments in general? I know in 2008 I made a big mistake and bought a lot of properties just for appreciation and long term investments, and wasn\u2019t considering the cash flow as much. It was more about accumulating wealth and property, and that hurt at the end of the day, because when we go into any kind of recession, the economy slows down and things happen. And every time it slows down, the negative cash flow can really hurt and it can snowball very quickly. And so you want to make sure that minimum, if you\u2019re going to buy that way, I would have at least 12 months of mortgage payments set aside to cover that gap.
I personally do not buy assets unless they are paying me, because for me it\u2019s a liability, it\u2019s not an asset. I need to generate cash flow off of it. If I\u2019m buying something for appreciation and that I\u2019m not making income on it, then it\u2019s a turn. I make an income by selling that property at that point. I won\u2019t feed the beast, I want the beast to feed me. And especially as you go forward as in your investment career, it really depends on where you\u2019re also at. When I was younger, I had a lot more appetite for getting higher equity position properties rather than cash flow, because I was really trying to springboard that wealth, but big profit hits, then I could reinvest that into more stable investments. But be careful buying on appreciation.
Right now we\u2019re probably not going to have a whole lot of it over the next 24 months. And so you\u2019re going to be just feeding an asset to where you can get better growth somewhere else. So, make sure that the assets are paying you or they\u2019re not assets. Another thing you can do is maybe just forget\u2026 people often time they hear like, \u201cI\u2019ve got to go buy a multifamily,\u201d because that\u2019s what I hear online. That doesn\u2019t mean that\u2019s the right strategy for you. You might want to look at a different asset class that can pay you to get you going, gets you into real estate, gives you an investment and you don\u2019t have to feed it.
Like single family housing, we\u2019re starting to see good cash flow on those again, because the rates have spiked, things are slowing down, and now we can kind of get into the right type of deal. So, look at different types of assets and explore your other options rather than just being fixated on one specific type in a specific market that might not be right for you.<\/p>\n
Dave:
That\u2019s good advice.<\/p>\n
Kathy:
Yeah. I have so many questions about that.<\/p>\n
Dave:
All right. Well, Kathy, I wanted to bring this to you next, because you just gave a great answer about the spectrum of risk in real estate investing. Where does this one fall on your spectrum?<\/p>\n
Kathy:
It\u2019s so funny, because I\u2019m in California and I go to these groups and people are buying like that all the time. Where are you going to find something here that cash flows? I watch people do it and they seem to make money. It\u2019s not my thing, but California has been known for appreciation over time, so people take that risk and they just assume that rents are going to go up and values will go up over time. Again, it\u2019s not for me. In Denver, there\u2019s so many questions I would have about this property. Is it new? Is it old? Does it need fixing? Are you going to be, like James said, are you going to be feeding it? So, it\u2019s actually going to be severely negative cash flow over time, or is it newer in an up and coming area?
Are you going to get bonus depreciation? That\u2019s the big one. If you have a tax problem, this apartment might be your saving grace. It might be the thing that makes you so much money just from the tax benefits alone if it qualifies for the bonus depreciation. So, I would look into that. But my first reaction was doesn\u2019t sound like a great deal to me, it sounds like a headache. But, again, if it\u2019s a really well located property that doesn\u2019t need a lot of work, it could make sense. So, too many factors there that we just don\u2019t know the answers to. If it\u2019s an old building, not in a growing area and it just breaks even, I would run and I\u2019d run fast.<\/p>\n
Dave:
All right, Henry, what\u2019s the last word on this?<\/p>\n
Henry:
So, my gut\u2019s telling me I wouldn\u2019t buy that, and here\u2019s why. For exactly what James said, you\u2019re typically going to have to feed that for a while. And so even if you rent it out, there\u2019s some additional, you\u2019ll have to add to that mortgage payment every month since it\u2019s not going to cash flow. And then you have to consider your maintenance, your taxes, your insurance, your vacancy, all these other things that are going to cost you money every month. So, all that leads me to believe if that\u2019s a strategy that you\u2019re looking at because you\u2019re banking on the appreciation long term, then you probably have some cash sitting in your bank account. And if you\u2019ve got some cash sitting in your bank account, I always tell people like, \u201cYes, you can\u2019t find some cash flowing multi-families on the market in a lot of areas of the country, but you can find them off market.\u201d
And so your strategies are, it\u2019s not that there aren\u2019t properties for you to buy, it\u2019s that just you haven\u2019t figured out how to go find those properties that meet that criteria that you\u2019re looking for yet. And if you\u2019re in a position where you\u2019ve got a day job, you don\u2019t have the time to go figure out how to find those properties, and you do have that cash, which I\u2019m assuming you do, then do exactly what Kathy talked about earlier and partner with somebody who already does that for you. So, find somebody who has a fund, who\u2019s going out and they\u2019re finding these off market properties that do hit the numbers and get you the return. And you can put that money to work in that fund that still produces you monthly cash flow.
And some funds will pay you monthly, some funds will pay you quarterly. So, do your research and find a fund who already does the hard part for you and goes out and finds those good deals, and you can get a return on your investment on the money you have sitting in your account, all through real estate, without you having to go and buy something that\u2019s going to cost you money month over month. And then as you build up that capital, maybe things change in the market and you can start to find more cash flowing assets later. Real estate\u2019s just like any other thing you\u2019re going to buy.
Somebody\u2019s figured out how to go buy that thing at a discount, right? If you want to buy cars and you say, \u201cWell, cars are crazy overpriced right now.\u201d Well, dealers are buying them cheap, right? They figured out the way to go buy cheap property. So, it\u2019s just you\u2019ve got to find that method to finding the deals in the type of product you\u2019re looking to buy. And if you don\u2019t have the time to do that, then leverage somebody who does, that you trust.<\/p>\n
Dave:
All right. That\u2019s great advice for Ryan who is mostly investing in Denver. So, Ryan, hopefully this is helpful to you. This is great advice. Generally agree with all of you. I think if this is one of your first deals, that is a lot of risk that I would take on. If, like Kathy said, this is part of a tax strategy or part of a much broader, more sophisticated portfolio strategy, there could be ways that this works. But if this is relatively new to you, one of your first properties, I think that\u2019s going to be a little too risky, at least for me.
All right, Henry, Kathy, James, thank you all so much for being here. We threw you all a curve ball, made you talk about the stock market. You all handled it very well. So, thank you very much. And if you are listening to this and have any feedback for us on this show, make sure to reach out to us on Instagram. I am @thedatadeli. James what\u2019s your handle?<\/p>\n
James:
It is @jdainflips.<\/p>\n
Dave:
Henry?<\/p>\n
Henry:
@theHenryWashington.<\/p>\n
Dave:
And Kathy?<\/p>\n
Kathy:
@KathyFettke.<\/p>\n
Dave:
All right. Thank you, everyone. We will see you again soon. On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer and Kailyn Bennett. Produced by Kailyn Bennett, editing by Joel Esparza and Onyx Media. Copywriting by Nate Weintraub and a very special thanks to the entire BiggerPockets team. The content on the show, On The Market, are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions, and investment strategies.<\/p>\n
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