{"id":3424,"date":"2022-08-10T19:02:06","date_gmt":"2022-08-10T19:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/?p=3424"},"modified":"2022-08-10T19:02:06","modified_gmt":"2022-08-10T19:02:06","slug":"heres-why-this-housing-market-isnt-like-2008-but-why-you-should-still-be-concerned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/10\/heres-why-this-housing-market-isnt-like-2008-but-why-you-should-still-be-concerned\/","title":{"rendered":"Here&#8217;s Why This Housing Market Isn&#8217;t Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div :class=\"{ 'hidden': $store.proContent.showFullPrompt() }\">\n<section class=\"px-4 relative border border-slate-200 mobile-toc lg:hidden\" x-data=\"{open:false}\"><button class=\"flex items-center gap-4 my-2 border-none w-full\"><br \/>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"h-6 w-6\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" d=\"M4 8h16M4 16h16\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"font-semibold text-slate-800 text-base m-0 js-toc-ignore\">In this article<\/h2>\n<p><\/button><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Those not living under a rock for the past year could skip these opening paragraphs as they are well aware the real estate market has been on fire. They are also aware that inflation is out of control (<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/inflation-is-not-going-away?fbclid=IwAR109nxE7FPVU8P_jU81C6DzXaKJuaYHudeuzBqK15VMeG3VxC_5D6JS-9k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">and likely to stay that way<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">), having hit\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/cpi-report-june-2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">9.1% in June<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, the highest since the early 80s. On top of that,\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/us-gdp-shrinks-white-house-and-experts-push-back-on-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">GDP shrank 0.9%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0in the second quarter of 2022, meaning we have had two negative quarters in a row, i.e., the United States is in a recession.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Add the stock market being down almost 20% year-to-date,\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2022\/07\/26\/1112439917\/amid-the-hype-they-bought-crypto-near-its-peak-now-they-cope-with-painful-losses\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the crypto collapse<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, near\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-06-10\/us-consumer-sentiment-slumps-to-record-low-on-inflation-woes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">record low consumer confidence<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.economicmodeling.com\/2022\/05\/06\/new-jobs-up-but-labor-force-participation-down\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">labor force participation<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, along with strong indicators that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Yet, as noted, real estate prices have skyrocketed in the middle of all this economic turmoil. In June of 2022, the median list price was up\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/june-2022-data\/#:~:text=The%20June%20national%20median%20listing,to%20last%20year%2C%20on%20average.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">16.9% year-over-year<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0and up 31.4% as compared to June 2020! This chart really drives that point home:<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><picture class=\"wp-image-144157 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 2\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11.webp 1168w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-300x116.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-1024x395.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-768x296.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11.png 1168w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-1024x395.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11.png\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-144157 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 2\" alt=\"median sales prices of homes sold in the US\" height=\"450\" width=\"1168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11.png 1168w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-1024x395.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fredgraph-11-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption><em>Median Sales Price of Houses Sold in the United States \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/MSPUS?fbclid=IwAR3zA-xww_LOk14TUwDHbOEsItngBYcbhtAqbq-VmoKcKyzFn8EauUaf7lY#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">So, are we about to see the real estate market collapse like it did in 2008?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Well, for those who skipped the first few paragraphs, the short answer to whether 2008 is about to repeat itself is almost certainly not.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Why This Time is Different (Although Still Bad)<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There\u2019s a cautionary saying amongst military strategists that goes something like \u201carmies prepare to fight their last war, rather than the next war.\u201d Indeed, there were calvary charges at the beginning of World War I. Then the French attempted to build an impenetrable super trench called the Maginot Line to prevent a German advance if a second world war broke out. When it did, the Germans were able to simply blitzkrieg their way around it through the Netherlands and Belgium, marching their way into Paris within six weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A similar effect goes on when thinking about economics. Having lived through the real estate bubble of the late 2000s and subsequent Great Recession, this is the economic calamity at the top of everyone\u2019s mind and thereby what many believe will see itself repeated in 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But our current woes bear much more resemblance to\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/economics\/08\/1970-stagflation.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the stagflation<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0of the 1970s and early 1980s. That \u201clost decade\u201d saw low growth and high inflation throughout. And it required a pretty nasty recession in 1982 to get out of after Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volker jacked interest rates up into the teens to\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/i-knew-paul-volcker-who-slew-the-great-inflation-and-jerome-powell-is-no-paul-volcker-11653500709\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cbreak the back of inflation.\u201d<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">High inflation and low growth (or even shallow recessions as we have now) are probably\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/inflation-is-not-going-away\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">what we have to look forward<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0to for the foreseeable future. But\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=U3mmU0mRlL0&amp;t=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">an all-out collapse, particularly in real estate, is unlikely<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For one, many of the scary headlines out there lack a lot of context. For example, as you\u2019ve certainly seen in the news, mortgage defaults rose from 0.6% in April 2021 to 1% by the end of the year, but they are still\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.consumerfinance.gov\/data-research\/mortgage-performance-trends\/mortgages-30-89-days-delinquent\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">way below<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0what they\u2019ve been over the last decade.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><picture class=\"wp-image-144158 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 3\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM.webp 676w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM-300x225.webp 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM.png 676w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM.png\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-144158 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 3\" alt=\"Percentage of mortgages 30\u201389 days delinquent: national average (January 2008 \u2013 December 2021)\" height=\"507\" width=\"676\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM.png 676w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.27.20-PM-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption><em>Percentage of mortgages 30\u201389 days delinquent:<br \/>national average (January 2008 \u2013 December 2021) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.consumerfinance.gov\/data-research\/mortgage-performance-trends\/mortgages-30-89-days-delinquent\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Consumer Finance Protection Bureau<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Property sales have also fallen 14.2% year-over-year from June 2021. But once again, starting at a date in such an extreme seller\u2019s market is misleading. Sales are still above what they were in 2020 and\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-4c7?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;fbclid=IwAR1CmWhFBFNmyzN8R2H13YcUrG_Vij6CD5NhtaZ4nH2ot6l1nr_9M9jNyHs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">about equal to 2019<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. The market was hot in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The real estate market was so ridiculously hot in 2021 that it had only one way to go. It literally had to cool off before prices outpaced all semblance of affordability. Fortunately, there are several major factors that should prevent any sort of collapse.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>1. <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">General Inflation<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Living through the current bout of high inflation makes it as good a time as any to learn the difference between\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Real_versus_nominal_value_(economics)#:~:text=In%20economics%2C%20nominal%20value%20is,had%20not%20changed%20on%20average.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">real and nominal prices<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. Nominal prices are just what they appear to be. Real prices take inflation into account. So, if inflation is 9% and real estate prices go up 10%, in real terms, values have only gone up 1%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In other words, general inflation makes nominally high real estate appreciation rates less meaningful. Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, inflation rates\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usinflationcalculator.com\/inflation\/current-inflation-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">were low.<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0They most certainly aren\u2019t low today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Indeed, nominal prices for real estate were never negative during the 1973-1982 stagflation. They were, however, negative in real terms for several years and for the economically troubled decade. Overall they just about\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.edwardthomasauthor.com\/single-post\/2017\/09\/18\/how-would-1970-s-style-inflation-impact-us-home-prices?fbclid=IwAR2ax6A31P6SN706MIXtcJyTGku5okKGkP76wzToCPZFdLIIJIzjcMoMbWg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">kept pace with inflation<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">; not good by any means, but not a catastrophe either.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes has-medium-font-size\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Year<\/th>\n<th>Inflation Rate (YoY)<\/th>\n<th>Home Prices (YoY)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1973<\/td>\n<td>6%<\/td>\n<td>16%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1974<\/td>\n<td>11%<\/td>\n<td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1975<\/td>\n<td>9%<\/td>\n<td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1976<\/td>\n<td>6%<\/td>\n<td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1977<\/td>\n<td>7%<\/td>\n<td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1978<\/td>\n<td>8%<\/td>\n<td>12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1979<\/td>\n<td>11%<\/td>\n<td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1980<\/td>\n<td>14%<\/td>\n<td>3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1981<\/td>\n<td>10%<\/td>\n<td>6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1982<\/td>\n<td>6%<\/td>\n<td>1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Average<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>9%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>9%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><figcaption><em>Inflation rate and home price appreciation YoY (1973-1982) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.edwardthomasauthor.com\/single-post\/2017\/09\/18\/how-would-1970-s-style-inflation-impact-us-home-prices?fbclid=IwAR2ax6A31P6SN706MIXtcJyTGku5okKGkP76wzToCPZFdLIIJIzjcMoMbWg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Edward Thomas Author, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We\u2019re likely to see something like this again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">And while it\u2019s not good for home prices to grow slower than inflation, a fall in real value is better than a fall in nominal value because of the way debt works, as will be elaborated on below.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>2. <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Lending Environment is Different (and Better) than 2008<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Everyone remembers the insanity that preceded the 2008 collapse. If you had a pulse, banks would lend to you. It was not uncommon to get 100% of the property financed with an 80\/20 loan (80% LTV on the first mortgage and 20% second). Stated income loans (where you simply stated your income, verification optional) were all the rage, and the infamous NINJA loans (No Income, No Job, No Assets) were being handed out like candy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I mean, why not? Housing always goes up, doesn\u2019t it?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Then there were the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/teaser-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">teaser rates<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. Many unscrupulous lenders would offer very low starter rates for a few months or a year, and then they would rocket up four or five percentage points after that. On top of this, many loans started as interest only or were even negatively amortized, where the principal balance grew with each payment. These homeowners relied strictly on appreciation to have any equity in the home.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">So, when the music stopped, they had nothing to lose.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fortunately, with the exception of high LTV loans, most of this nonsense has stopped. The teaser rates are mostly gone and\u00a0<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Investopedia<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/n\/ninja-loan.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">notes<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, \u201cNINJA loans largely disappeared.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The quality of borrowers has also indisputably gotten better. Before 2008, subprime loans were being made en masse. The Credit Union National Association\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/news.cuna.org\/articles\/print\/116675-subprime-mortgages-and-the-financial-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">states<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, \u201cWhile \u2018subprime\u2019 isn\u2019t easily defined, it\u2019s generally understood as characterizing particularly risky loans with interest rates that are well above market rates.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Credit Union National Association uses the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data to determine how many subprime mortgages are taken out each year, and the number of such loans being made has plummeted since the crash:<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><picture class=\"wp-image-144159 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 4\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM.webp 1996w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-300x170.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-1024x582.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-768x436.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-1536x873.webp 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1996px) 100vw, 1996px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM.png 1996w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-1536x873.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1996px) 100vw, 1996px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM.png\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-144159 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 4\" alt=\"subprime mortgage originations 2004-2017\" height=\"1134\" width=\"1996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM.png 1996w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.48.22-PM-1536x873.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1996px) 100vw, 1996px\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption><em>Subprime mortgage originations (2004-2017) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/news.cuna.org\/articles\/116675-subprime-mortgages-and-the-financial-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Credit Union National Association<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Even the loan-to-value ratios aren\u2019t as bad as before for two reasons. One, just about the most you can get is 96.5% with an FHA loan, which is at least something down. Two, given how much appreciation has occurred just in the last year, anyone who has bought a home a year or more ago has a substantial amount of equity in their property.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This means that even if the market fell 20%, the vast majority of people would still have positive equity in their homes. In 2008, with so many people having near-100% mortgages on properties that were collapsing in value, many fell \u201cunderwater,\u201d where the property had more debt attached to it than it was worth. Thus, a vicious cycle began as many homeowners opted for\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/strategic-default.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cstrategic defaults\u201d<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0because it simply didn\u2019t make sense to pay for a property that was worth less than nothing. This caused the market to fall even further.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But as noted above, in a high inflation environment, it\u2019s highly possible that real estate values could go down in real terms without going down in nominal terms. (For example, real estate values go up 3%, whereas inflation is 7%). Given that mortgages are unaffected by inflation, a nominal loss can make a strategic default the rationale option for homeowners. But a real loss that is still nominally positive will never make a strategic default the rationale option.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">And again, we are in a high inflation environment, unlike the low inflation environment that preceded the 2008 financial crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The other factor that made loans unpayable were the interest rates that shot up after the teaser rate expired. As noted above, those are mostly gone. But in addition, there are fewer adjustable-rate mortgages than there were in the years before the crash. As\u00a0<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Financial Samurai<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/adjustable-rate-mortgages-as-a-percentage-of-total-loans\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">points out<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, only 4.7% of mortgages taken out in 2021 were adjustable-rate mortgages! The rest were fixed-rate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For comparison, back in 2006, almost 35% were adjustable-rate mortgages.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Thus, if the Fed\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/interest-rate-hike-75-basis-points-federal-reserve\/#:~:text=Economists%20expect%20Fed%20officials%20will,2019%20before%20the%20coronavirus%20pandemic.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">continues to raise rates<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0as expected, it will soften the market by making it more expensive to take out a mortgage, but most current homeowners won\u2019t be affected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We\u2019ve spent the past year refinancing all our investment loans with fixed-rate terms until at least 2027 to hedge against rate increases. My personal home mortgage is at 3% on a 30-year fixed rate. Obviously, I\u2019ll never refinance that one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Indeed, as many people now have incredibly low-interest loans fixed for 30 years and nearly every landlord\u2019s rent increases have not kept up with\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/interactive\/2022\/rising-rent-prices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">rapidly increasing market rents<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and more cities and states limit the amount landlords can increase rent; you have to wonder whether anyone will ever move again? But that\u2019s a topic for another time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The last point is that if unemployment shoots up, people won\u2019t be able to make their payments even if they have great interest rates. This is true, and a recession would undoubtedly increase the number of foreclosures. But we\u2019re already in a recession, and unemployment\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/pdf\/empsit.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">is only 3.6%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. If anything, employers can\u2019t find enough people willing to work.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That could change, but it would seem the dynamics of this recession are much different than in 2008, and reaching 10% unemployment is unlikely. But even if that were to happen, plenty of well-capitalized investors, including on Wall Street this time around, are looking to buy. And since sellers will have equity in their homes, high unemployment is unlikely to set off a spiral of foreclosures like in 2008.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But moreover, many more property owners don\u2019t even have mortgages to begin with. The percentage of cash buyers versus those buying with a mortgage was\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/all-cash-home-purchases-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">30% in 2021<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0according to Redfin, the highest its been since 2014. In the three years preceding the 2008 crash, the rates were 23.1%, 21.6%, and 23%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Since 2008, it\u2019s been at least 25% each year and often over 30%.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><picture class=\"wp-image-144160 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 5\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM.webp 1650w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-300x216.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-1024x739.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-768x554.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-1536x1108.webp 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1650px) 100vw, 1650px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM.png 1650w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-1024x739.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-768x554.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-1536x1108.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1650px) 100vw, 1650px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM.png\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-144160 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 5\" alt=\"us homes purchased with cash 2001-2021\" height=\"1190\" width=\"1650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM.png 1650w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-1024x739.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-768x554.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-10-at-1.53.00-PM-1536x1108.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1650px) 100vw, 1650px\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption><em>Share of U.S. home purchases paid for with all cash (2001-2021) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/all-cash-home-purchases-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Redfin<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It\u2019s hard to get foreclosed on when you don\u2019t have a mortgage in the first place.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>3. <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There\u2019s Still a Housing Crisis<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, the biggest reason a housing collapse is unlikely is because supply and demand are still undefeated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">And when it comes to housing, demand is blowing supply out of the water.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to Freddie Mac, in 2020, the United States had a record\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/research\/insight\/20210507-housing-supply\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">3.8-million-unit shortfall<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the U.S. faced the opposite situation. Indeed, the country was littered with\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thefiscaltimes.com\/Media\/Slideshow\/2011\/08\/03\/9-Worst-Recession-Ghost-Towns-in-America\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201crecession ghost towns\u201d<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0and all-but-empty, newly built subdivisions. Nowadays, 50-plus people show up to an open house.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What happened was very simple; we stopped building. Prior to the 2008 crash, there were\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/08\/housing-starts-increased-to-1496.html#google_vignette\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">over a million housing starts each year since 1991<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0and over two million between 2004 and the bubble bursting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Housing starts cratered to 500,000 in 2009 and only topped 1.5 million in 2019. Then Covid hit and virtually every project was significantly delayed.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><picture class=\"wp-image-144161 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 6\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit-.webp 1009w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit--300x224.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit--768x573.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1009px) 100vw, 1009px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit-.png 1009w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit--300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit--768x573.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1009px) 100vw, 1009px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit-.png\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-144161 sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 6\" alt=\"US housing starts total and one unit structures\" height=\"753\" width=\"1009\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit-.png 1009w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit--300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/housing-starts-total-and-one-unit--768x573.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1009px) 100vw, 1009px\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption><em>Housing Starts: Total and One-Unit Structures (1968-2022) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/08\/housing-starts-increased-to-1496.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Calculated Risk Blog<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">All the while, the American population kept growing. And all those people need somewhere to live.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Unfortunately, houses and apartments can\u2019t be wished into existence. The entire process, from permits to move-in, often takes over a year. In other words, this is not a problem that can be ended quickly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For the housing market to collapse, it would have to collapse in spite of demand being far higher than supply. This would be an exceptionally odd thing to happen.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Closing Thoughts<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We are undoubtedly\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/fact-tank\/2022\/03\/23\/key-facts-about-housing-affordability-in-the-u-s\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">reaching the limits of affordability<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0for Americans to buy a home, especially with rising interest rates. This by itself should cool the real estate market off (which we\u2019re already seeing) and could cause a correction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But everything else, from lending standards to economy-wide inflation to the ratio of fixed mortgages to adjustable-rate mortgages to the still massive housing shortage make a 2008-like collapse highly unlikely.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">And there\u2019s one more factor to consider. As I noted in\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/inflation-is-not-going-away\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">my previous piece<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, inflation will likely be around for quite some time in part because there is little political will to stop it. That\u2019s because really putting a stop to inflation will likely throw us into a significantly deeper recession.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Right now, the political divide is\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2014\/06\/12\/political-polarization-in-the-american-public\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">as wide as it has been in many years<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. Washington does not want to throw fuel on this fire.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If somehow a housing crisis started anew, the evidence indicates that the political class would stomach as much inflation as necessary to prevent another collapse. In other words, expect the Fed to drop interest rates back to zero and the government to bail out homeowners and Wall Street this time around and not just Wall Street with as much quantitative easing as necessary. Also, expect banks to learn their lesson (at least partially) and do more short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure than last time, especially in the early going.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But alas, the evidence also indicates that such decisions won\u2019t need to be made as a housing collapse does not appear to be around the corner.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Of course, that doesn\u2019t mean the economy is good. It wasn\u2019t good in the 1970s and is not good today. But it\u2019s not 2008 either, and we can at least be thankful for that.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide is-stacked-on-mobile\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><picture class=\"wp-image-137225 size-full sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 7\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1.webp 450w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-300x300.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-150x150.webp 150w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-200x200.webp 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1.png 450w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-200x200.png 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1.png\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-137225 size-full sp-no-webp\" title=\"Here's Why This Housing Market Isn't Like 2008, But Why You Should Still Be Concerned 7\" alt=\"recession proof 1\" height=\"450\" width=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1.png 450w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/recession-proof-1-200x200.png 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h3>Prepare for a market shift<\/h3>\n<p>Modify your investing tactics\u2014not only to survive an economic downturn, but to also thrive! Take any recession in stride and never be intimidated by a market shift again with <em><a href=\"https:\/\/store.biggerpockets.com\/products\/recession-proof-real-estate-investing?utm_source=blog&amp;utm_medium=blog%20banner\" class=\"rank-math-link\">Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"italic\"><b>Note By BiggerPockets:<\/b> These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/this-housing-market-isnt-like-2008-but-you-should-still-be-concerned\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this article Those not living under a rock for the past year could skip these opening paragraphs as they are well aware the real estate market has been on fire. They are also aware that inflation is out of control (and likely to stay that way), having hit\u00a09.1% in June, the highest since the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3425,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/2008-crash-not-likely-1024x517.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3424"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3424\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3426,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3424\/revisions\/3426"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}