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Dave:
Hey, what\u2019s going on, everyone? Welcome to On The Market. I\u2019m your host, Dave Meyer. I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving, and had the opportunity to spend some time with friends and family, hopefully eat some amazing food, and take some time to reflect on all the things that all of us have to be grateful for. I have so many things that I am thankful for, friends, family, getting to work at BiggerPockets. But one of the things that came up this year for me when I was thinking about the things I am thankful for is all of you. We started On The Market just seven months ago. We\u2019ve already surpassed 50 episodes.
We have more than a million downloads already, and it\u2019s all because of all of you. So, thank you all so much for being a part of our community, for listening, for sharing the episodes, for writing us great reviews. We greatly appreciate everything that you do to be a part of On the Market community. Today, we have a great episode for you. It\u2019s just going to be me today. We gave the rest of the panel the holidays off, but I have some really important updates about the two biggest topics of 2022, which is inflation and interest rates. If you\u2019ve been paying attention over the last couple of weeks, some big news has come out about both inflation and interest rates.
I actually think there\u2019s a lot of evidence that inflation has peaked, which I\u2019m going to talk a lot about. We\u2019ve seen mortgage rates go down in the last few weeks, then they\u2019re back up. They\u2019re all over the place, and we\u2019ve seen the Fed come out with some additional guidance on what they\u2019re thinking for the next couple of years. Get ready for a great episode. I do have one suggestion for you if you are going to listen to this episode, and that is to take this opportunity on the day after Thanksgiving to make what is possibly the greatest sandwich of the entire year.
If you follow me on Instagram, my handle is called the data deli. the reason I do that is because two things I really love are data and sandwiches. I love the day after Thanksgiving, which is the day this episode comes out, because it gives you the only opportunity of the year to make the Thanksgiving leftover sandwich, which is basically you take everything you got in your fridge from the day before, and stick it on some bread. I like going and getting a huge Italian loaf of bread, throw in some Turkey. You got stuffing, mashed potatoes.
You got carrots. Whatever you got, throw it on there. Drizzle some grazing on it. Have yourself a sandwich. Sit down and listen to this episode of On The Market about inflation and interest rates, which we\u2019ll get to in just a second. But first, we\u2019re going to take a quick break.
So first things first, back on November 10th, we got new inflation data. Inflation data comes out once per month in terms of the CPI at least. On November 10th, we got data for October. The news was very, very encouraging. This is one of the best, most encouraging inflation reports that we\u2019ve seen in quite a while. The top line consumer price index, which is measured on a year over year basis fell from 8.2%. That\u2019s what it was back in September to 7.7% in October. Now, make no mistake about it. 7.7% inflation is still incredibly unacceptably high. It is way, way, way too high.
Remember, the target for the Fed is about 2%, so 7.7% is nuts. But this is really encouraging, because it\u2019s the lowest it\u2019s been since January of 2022, and was a pretty significant beat for what people were expecting. A lot of experts were thinking that inflation would go down just a little bit, and having it go down from 8.2% to 7.7% in just one month is very, very encouraging. The other thing I love to see is that the core CPI, which is basically a subsection of the consumer price index, but it removes food prices and energy prices like gasoline and electricity, because it\u2019s really volatile.
Those go up and down a lot, and so just to understand what core prices are doing, they have this number called the Core CPI. That is really, I think, what the Fed cares the most about. The Core CPI also fell. It had gone up in September, and it fell in October from 6.6% to 6.3%, so both very encouraging things. But just remember, I just want to be very clear that 7.7 is still very, very unacceptably high. No one should be cheering about 7.7% inflation, but we can be cheering the fact that inflation seems to be on a downward trend, and it is quite possible that the worst of inflation is behind us.
I\u2019m going to take a few minutes now just to explain that, because I think a lot of people are probably wondering what am I basing that off of. There\u2019s three things, but the biggest thing is just math. I\u2019m not projecting any policy changes, that anything in the political climate or economic climate is really even going to change. I\u2019m just going to explain the math behind how the consumer price index is calculated, and why it is probably going to go down in 2023. First, let\u2019s talk about the first two things. I said there are three reasons why I think inflation has peaked and is going to start to come down.
The first is, of course, interest rate hikes. Back in March, we saw the Federal Reserve start to raise interest rates. They\u2019ve been doing it really, really rapidly, and it went from a federal funds rate, which is what the Federal Reserve controls. The federal funds rate went from 0% up to 4% where it is now. That is one of the fastest rate hikes in history, but the truth is that rate hikes, which are designed to help curb inflation, take a little bit of time to ripple through the economy. The whole idea about raising interest rates to cool inflation is that it slows down demand.
When money is cheap, when interest rates are low, people want to buy, right? If you can borrow money at almost no interest, it makes a lot of sense to buy a new car that you\u2019re financing, or to buy a house, or if you\u2019re a business to expand and hire people, and acquire a new company, whatever it is. There\u2019s a lot of demand when interest rates are low. When interest rates go up, that dissuades people from buying things, and that lowers demand, but demand doesn\u2019t just turn off overnight. It\u2019s not like all of a sudden, \u201cOh, the Fed raises interest rates 75 basis points. We\u2019re no longer spending money.\u201d
That takes time, and it usually takes at least six months or even longer for the impact of interest rate hikes to hit the demand side of the economy, and cool inflation. Now, we are probably now, because rates started rising back in March, just starting to see the first effects of the first rate hikes. Now going forward, we\u2019re going to continue to see the impact of more and more rate hikes. They\u2019re still raising rates. They raised rates two weeks ago in the beginning of November. The impact of that most recent rate hike is not going to be felt until probably the second quarter of 2023.
So, we should expect demand to continue to taper off in a lot of areas, particularly for leveraged assets, so things that you use a loan to buy is a leveraged asset like real estate or a car or for businesses if they\u2019re going to take on a small business loan to expand or whatever. Demand for those leveraged assets should continue to decline for the foreseeable future as long as the Fed keeps raising interest rate. When there\u2019s less demand, that cools inflation. We\u2019re also starting to see the effect of these rate hikes in the labor market. This is a really important thing, because having really tight labor market like we have right now is one of the core drivers of inflation.
The Fed has stated that they basically want the unemployment rate to go up. I know that sounds terrible, because no one really wants people to lose their jobs, but the Fed believes economically that it is important. It is so important to lower inflation that they are willing to accept job losses, and they are going to keep pushing the boundary of how much they can raise rates until the labor market starts to crack, and we see significant job losses. They\u2019ll tolerate a bit of job losses, but probably not a lot. The data that we\u2019ve seen so far is that the labor market is still really, really strong.
I know there have been a lot of media headlines about some high-profile layoffs. Companies like Meta, and Amazon, Twitter, Stripe, really big tech companies, banks, are laying off a lot of people. Those are big high-profile things,` but in the aggregate in the country, the labor market is still really strong. The last numbers that came out showed that there is still 1.9 jobs available for everyone who is looking for a job. The labor market still has a long way to go, but the sign that we\u2019re starting to see high profile layoffs and specifically in the tech industry might be a sign of things to come.
That could mean that we\u2019re going to see more layoffs tick up in the unemployment rate, probably not anytime in the next one or two months, but maybe in 2023, and that could further cool inflation. That\u2019s the first reason why I think inflation has peaked is that the impact of interest rate hikes have only just started to be felt, and it\u2019s probably going to keep intensifying the impact of those interest rate hikes over the next at least six months. The second reason has to do with supply shock. Now, inflation goes up for a few reasons, but it\u2019s often described as too much money chasing too few goods.
What the Fed is doing in raising interest rates is trying to address the too much money part. By lowering demand, they\u2019re pulling money out of the system, and that will help inflation, but there\u2019s a whole other side of this equation, which is the supply side, right? Too much money chasing too few goods. A big part of why inflation has been so high over the last year is that too few goods part, right? Everyone\u2019s experienced this, right? We\u2019ve had back orders on everything from garage doors to appliances to just regular everyday items like baby formula or all sorts of different things.
A lot of this is really nothing to do with America. Yes, we had shut downs in the United States that caused lags in manufacturing, but so much of American goods are manufactured overseas in places like China, which has continued to have a no-COVID policy, and they\u2019ve continued with lockdowns well beyond much, much longer than the United States has. That means that China and their manufacturing, which supplies a lot of the United States, has continued to have supply side shock, which means we have fewer goods in the U.S. than we would want that would meet demand. That has continued, but is tapering off.
We\u2019re seeing the cost of goods to ship stuff from China to the U.S. has gone down. We\u2019re seeing a lot more output from China so we\u2019re going to see an easing of the supply side shocks. The second thing about supply side shocks is the Russian invasion of Ukraine created havoc, particularly on the energy and food markets. Ukraine and Russia are huge exporters of wheat in particular and a lot of other food products. With the sanctions that the U.S. and western country and NATO basically have put on to Russia, we no longer have access to those large markets, and so that creates more supply shock.
Just at the time back in February when we were starting to see some supply shock start to ease, then Russia invaded Ukraine. Now, we\u2019re seeing huge supply issues both in food and energy, which is a big reason why the CPI spiked up so much in the second quarter, third quarter of 2022. Those are not going away right away, but the world and the economy eventually adjusts to that. The other manufacturers, other producers start to produce more when there\u2019s a supply shock. Now that the Russian invasion is nine months old, we\u2019re starting to see the world react. Other producers are producing more, and so across the board supply shock is starting to come down.
Those are the first two reasons why I think inflation has peaked. One is, again, the Fed raising interest rates, the effects are starting to be felt. The second is that supply side shocks are starting to come down. Now, the third and perhaps most important reason is because of what is known as the base effect. This is just basically math, right? It\u2019s regardless of policy, geopolitical situations like what\u2019s going on in Russia and China. This doesn\u2019t even factor in any of that. It\u2019s just basically the way that the consumer price index is measured, and how the numbers work out.
Let me just explain this quickly, because this is super important and, I think, is perhaps the most compelling of any of the reasons why I think inflation has peaked. When we talk about inflation, when I say that inflation was at 7.7%, what I\u2019m really saying is that inflation went up 7.7% year over year. Year over year basically just means comparing the same month for two years. What happened is in October of 2022, the prices in the United States as measured by the consumer price index were higher by 7.7% than they were the previous year in October 2021. They went up 7.7 over the course of a year.
Because of that, it doesn\u2019t just matter what inflation is right now, right? That\u2019s one part of the equation. What\u2019s inflation in October 2022? It also matters what inflation was a year ago. What happened in October of 2021? In 2021, inflation started to tick up, and it was starting to go up, then it started to go crazy. Prices really started to get insane towards the second half of 2021. So for most of 2022, so most of this year, when we were comparing this year to last year from inflation, we were comparing really high numbers for 2022 to relatively low numbers in 2021.
They weren\u2019t super low. They were well above what they should be, but they were relatively lower. That makes the gap, the difference really high. Now as we\u2019ve gotten into later 2022, we\u2019re comparing high numbers in October of 2022 to numbers in October of 2021 that were already high. That makes the comparison relatively lower. Hopefully that makes sense to you guys. Basically, we were comparing a high number to a low number. Now, we\u2019re comparing a high number to a high number, and so the difference between the two numbers, which is how we measure inflation, is going down. It\u2019s important to note that what I\u2019m not saying, I am not saying that prices are going to go down, and that\u2019s not actually what we\u2019re expecting.
It\u2019s not what you want. Inflation is not a good thing for an economy. You don\u2019t want prices across the board to go down. If it goes down for housing, or it goes down for cars in an individual sector of the economy, that\u2019s fine, but you don\u2019t want widespread deflation. We could talk about that in another time. The Fed actually wants 2% inflation. That\u2019s what we\u2019re trying to get to is 2% year over year inflation. What I\u2019m saying is that if we continue at the pace that we are at right now, year over year inflation is going to keep going down because we\u2019re already at these high numbers, and the rate of inflation, of price increases is not going up.
I actually did the math to figure out what this looks like over the next year or so. Let me explain to you why I believe so strongly that inflation has peaked is because the math really checks out. Over the last month, just this past month, inflation, prices went up. Not year over year, I\u2019m talking about month over month. Now, they went up 0.4%. Just in a month from September to October, prices in the CPI went up 0.4%, right? If we continue at that monthly trajectory, the CPI, the year over year CPI will get down to about 4.9% by this time next year.
I want to be clear about what I\u2019m saying here. If we continue at the same rate of price increases as we are doing right now, we will be at a 4.8 inflation rate a year from now. Remember, we\u2019re at 7.7% right now. As long as we stay even, we\u2019re going down to 4.8, 4.9%. That is why I think it\u2019s going to decline, because it would actually take inflation to accelerate on a monthly basis for inflation on a year over year basis to go up above where we are right now. Now, that .4% month over month inflation that I\u2019m talking about is high. Over the last couple of months, we\u2019ve actually averaged closer to 0.3%.
I did the math for that too. If we averaged 0.3% like we have for the last quarter, if we average that going forward for a year, a year from now, we\u2019ll have inflation of 3.66%. That is still higher than the Fed\u2019s target of about two to 3%, but way, way, way better than where we are today. Now, if inflation actually starts to fall, which is what people are expecting due to the supply side fixes and the interest rate hikes that I was just talking about, if they fall 2.2%, which is not that crazy, we\u2019re at 0.4% right now. If it goes down to 0.2%, then year over year inflation will get down to 2.4% next year.
That\u2019s right in the Fed\u2019s target rate. All that really needs to happen is if we stay at current inflation rates, or go slightly lower than we are right now, we should expect that inflation ends somewhere between the 2% to 4.5% by the end of next year. Now, that\u2019s not saying necessarily we\u2019re going to get to the Fed\u2019s target rate. In fact, we would have to see inflation month over month go to about 0.15% to get to the Fed\u2019s target rate next year. But over the course of 2023, we should expect inflation to go down. That is just simple math. It has nothing to do with anything else.
Just to summarize why I think inflation is going down or has peaked is, one, it has actually peaked because it hit its highest point year over year back in June where it was about 9%. Now, it\u2019s at 7.7%, and the math and all of the major indicators are showing that it\u2019s going to continue to go down. That\u2019s our inflation update. But next, let\u2019s move on to mortgage rates and interest rates, because what everyone wants to know is, \u201cAre mortgage rates going up or down?\u201d We all know that the housing market is in a correction. The reason the housing market is in a correction is because mortgage rates continue to skyrocket. That lowers demand. That lowers affordability, and that sends housing prices down.
Now, I personally believe that this housing correction will last as long as mortgage rates continue to go up or stay above 6% or 7%. If they start to come back down, that will probably end the housing correction. That\u2019s just my opinion. But the question is, \u201cWhat is going to happen to mortgage rates next year?\u201d Now ,the prevailing logic, the prevailing belief is that mortgage rates are going to go up, because interest rates for the Fed are going up. We\u2019ve seen the Fed started raising rates in March, and since then, interest rates have more than doubled. There are 3.1% was the average 30-year fixed rate loan back in January.
Now, we\u2019re at some time\u2026 I\u2019m recording this on November 16th. The average 30-year fixed rate today is about 6.7%, which is down from where it was a few weeks ago, which was 7.1% or 7.2%. Most people believe that the interest rates will at least stay this high or keep going up. There\u2019s definitely logic to that, right? It seems to make sense. The Fed has said they\u2019re going to keep raising interest rates, and so perhaps mortgage rates will stay where they are right now, or continue to go up. The idea there is that as the Fed raise interest rates, bond yields tend to go up.
Mortgage rates are based off bond yields, and so over time, if the Fed keeps raising rates, bond yields will actually continue to increase, and therefore mortgage rates will go up. Now, a lot of people think that mortgage rates will go up to 9% or 10%. I personally don\u2019t. I think that if they continue to go up, they\u2019ll probably go somewhere around\u2026 They could surpass 8%, maybe get somewhere between 8% and 8.5%, but based on what the Fed has said, and where they intend to pause interest rate hikes, it makes more sense that it will peak somewhere around 8%, presuming bond yields continue to go up.
Now, that\u2019s the prevailing logic, and a lot of people think that, but over the last couple of weeks, there\u2019s actually been more and more economists and housing market analysts who believe that mortgage rates are actually going to go down next year. I know that\u2019s super confusing, because I just said the Fed was raising interest rates well into next year. But there is actually some very sound economic logic to this, and let me just take a couple minutes to explain it, because I think it\u2019s super important and could really impact prices in the housing market next year. Let me just quickly recap how mortgage rates are set. The Fed does not control mortgage rates.
They control the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other. It\u2019s wonky. It doesn\u2019t matter, but right now, it\u2019s up to 4%. That 4% is not dictating mortgage rates or car loans or student loans or whatever. It basically sets the baseline for interest rates across the entire economy. So if the federal funds rate is at 4%, it is almost impossible to find a loan less than 4%. That\u2019s just how it works. Now, mortgage rates are correlated to the federal funds rate. When the federal funds rate goes up, mortgage rates tend to go up too, but they\u2019re actually not directly tied together.
In fact, mortgage rates are much more closely tied to the yield on a 10 year treasury. A 10 year treasury is a U.S. government bond, and a U.S. government bond is basically you or an investor lending money to the U.S. Government. A 10 year treasury specifically is you\u2019re lending the U.S. government money for 10 years. Now, mortgage rates and the yield, which is the interest rate, the profit that you earn on a 10-year bond are almost exactly correlated. They have a 0.98 correlation. That means they move together. When bond yields go up, so do mortgage rates. When bond yields go down, so do mortgage rates. They work in lockstep.
It\u2019s pretty incredible how closely tied they are to each other. This happens for a very logical reason. It\u2019s basically because of the way that banks make their money. Imagine for a second that you\u2019re a bank. Imagine you have billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars to lend out. It must be very nice. You choose who to lend it to. That\u2019s how you make your money. Now, the bank is sitting there thinking, \u201cAll right, I can lend my money to the government, the U.S. government, at 4% interest.\u201d Remember, the yield on a 10 year treasury right now is 4%. I can earn 4% with basically no risks.
Lending to the U.S. government in the form of treasury bills is basically the safest investment in the world. Generally speaking, the U.S. has never defaulted on its loan. It\u2019s the most creditworthy entity in the entire world according to all the credit rating agencies. Therefore, a bank can say, \u201cI\u2019m going to lend my money to the U.S. government for 4% interest.\u201d Now, they want to earn more than 4%, don\u2019t we all? So, they take riskier loans. They\u2019re going to also make riskier loans, but to make a riskier loan, they\u2019re going to charge more in interest. They have to have more potential for reward to take on that risk. That\u2019s how risk and reward work.
So when someone goes and applies for a mortgage, let\u2019s just say me, Dave goes and applies to a mortgage, the bank is thinking, \u201cI can lend\u2026\u201d Let\u2019s say I want a mortgage for $500,000.\u201d I can lend Dave $500,000, or I can lend the government $500,000, and earn 4% interest. I know the government\u2019s going to pay me back 4% every single\u2026 4% a year. That\u2019s locked in. That is guaranteed. Dave, even though he has a good credit score, and he\u2019s paid his mortgage rate every single month that he\u2019s had a mortgage, which is a long time, I still think he\u2019s just a normal dude.
He could default on his mortgage. So because of that increased risk, we\u2019re going to charge him more. This is why they move in lockstep. Basically, when the opportunity to lend to the government goes up, banks are like, \u201cWell, that\u2019s great. We can earn 4% lending to the government. Now, we have to raise interest rates on mortgages to compensate for the additional risk on top of that 4%.\u201d That\u2019s why the 10 year treasury and mortgage rates are almost directly correlated with one another. There is typically a spread, right? Yields are 4% right now.
Normally, the difference between a 10 year yield and a mortgage rate is about 1.9%. So if you had a yield of 4% like we have now, you would expect mortgage rates to be 5.9%, but they\u2019re at 6.7% or 7% right now. That\u2019s because there\u2019s all sorts of uncertainty. This difference between the yield and mortgages are due to uncertainty. When there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy, banks are basically saying, \u201cWe have to charge even more than normal for that risk premium. We don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen to the economy. Are people going to lose their jobs? Is there going to be more inflation?
To cover our asses, instead of charging 1.9% above yields, we\u2019re going to charge 2.5, or we\u2019re going to charge 3%. Actually right now, the spread between a yield and a mortgage rate is the highest it has been since 1986. Normally, remember, it is 1.9%. Right now, it is about 2.9%, so significantly, significantly higher. That\u2019s how mortgage rates are basically set. Now, remember at the beginning of this rant than I am on, I said that there are two reasons why interest rates might actually fall this year. Now that I\u2019ve explained that, you should be able to understand this.
The first scenario where interest rates fall in 2023 is because of a global recession. We don\u2019t know if we\u2019re in a recession right now. The National Bureau of Economic Research gets to decide that. A lot of people believe we were in a recession, because we had two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Now, GDP went up. It\u2019s all very confusing. Honestly, I don\u2019t really know what to even say about it at this point, but the idea here, and the reason that a lot of prominent economists and analysts are saying that mortgage rates can go down next year is because we enter a global recession where the entire global economy takes a big dip, and that will have these serious impacts on interest rates.
Here\u2019s how it works. When there is a recession, investors from across the globe tend to seek really safe assets. Remember, I just said that treasuries, government bonds are the safest investment in the entire World. So when there is a global recession, there tends to be this flock, this huge increase in demand for bonds. Everyone around the world wants to get into bonds because they can earn 4% guaranteed when no one knows what\u2019s going to happen with the stock market, the real estate market, the crypto market, whatever. When there is an increase in demand, just like for anything else, it actually sends up prices. When demand goes up, prices go up.
The thing about bonds, which I\u2019m not going to get into, is when prices go up, the yield goes down. Just in short, basically, more people want the bonds, so the government\u2019s like, \u201cGreat. Everyone wants these magical bonds that we\u2019re giving out. We\u2019re going to give you less interest rate. We\u2019re going to pay you less to borrow the money from you,\u201d and people still want it, so they\u2019re like, \u201cOkay,\u201d and they\u2019ll take a lower yield, and yields tend to go down. Just to recap, recession means there\u2019s more demand for bonds. When more demand for bonds, yields go down. Now remember when I said when yields go down, so do mortgage rates, right?
The Fed does not control mortgage rates. What controls mortgage rates almost directly is the yield on a 10 year treasury. So, that\u2019s scenario number one. There\u2019s a global recession. People from around the world are like, \u201cGive me some of that safe, safe bond yield from the U.S. government that drives up demand, sends down yields, and takes down mortgage rates with it.\u201d That\u2019s scenario number one. Scenario number two is that the spread declines. Remember, I just said that the spread between bond yield and mortgage rates are at the highest they have been since 1986, and that is because we\u2019re in this period of extreme economic uncertainty.
The spread between these two things between yields and mortgage rates really spiked during uncertainty. There have actually been only three times in the last 22 years since the year 2000 where the spread is above 2%. That\u2019s during the great recession, the first few months of COVID, and right now. So, hopefully, let\u2019s all hope that over the course of 2023, the economic picture, the economic outlook becomes a bit more clear. That means the spread could come down. This could come from the Fed deciding to pause their interest rate hikes. It could come from inflation continuing to trend downward or perhaps the end to the war in Russia or something like that.
Any of these reasons, if for any reason over the course of 2023, the economic picture becomes more clear, and banks have a better sense of what\u2019s going to happen over the next couple of year, the spread might start to come down. Although I\u2019m not saying interest rates are going to come down next year, I think it\u2019s important for everyone listening to understand that there are two very, very plausible scenarios where mortgage rates do come down next year. That\u2019s because a recession comes, and then bond yields fall, or because the uncertainty in the economy starts to be mitigated, and the spread between bond yields and mortgage rates comes down.
Now, make no mistake about this. I am not saying that any of this means that the Fed is going to pause raising interest rates anytime soon. They have been very, very clear that they are going to keep raising interest rates. And for that reason, mortgage rates could go up. I just want to explain that it is not as cut and dry as people are saying. A lot of people say, \u201cSee, interest rates\u2026 The Fed raising their federal funds rate,\u201d and say, \u201coh my God, the mortgage rates are going up to 8%, 9%, 10%.\u201d It is not clear. That, personally, I don\u2019t see them hitting 9%, nevermind 10%. I could see them hitting 8%, but I could also see them going down to 6%.
It is really unclear. If you want to follow this, I highly recommend you keep an eye on the yield on a 10 year treasury and what is going on there. That is one of the most important things you can do to understand what\u2019s going to happen in the housing market over the next couple of years. Because if the yield on 10 years stays where they are or starts to decline, mortgage rates will probably go down, and that will really help us end the housing correction, and maybe send prices the other way. If bond yields continue to rise, we will see mortgage rates continue to rise, and that will put more downward pressure on housing prices, and deepen the housing correction, so really important thing to watch.
Now, another thing to watch is the Fed is going to meet, again, in December just a couple weeks from now, and most analysts expect a 50 basis points hike rather than the 75 basis point hikes we\u2019ve seen over the last couple of months. That\u2019s nice. It\u2019s cool, whatever, but it doesn\u2019t really matter, right? To me, what really matters is where the federal funds rate ultimately settles, and where bond yields ultimately settle in the next year. That is going to dictate mortgage rates, and that is going to dictate bond yields. What happens with bond yields is going to dictate mortgage rates.
So, just pay attention to this stuff, guys. I know everyone wants to know what\u2019s going to happen, and you want just someone to tell you. Unfortunately, no one really knows, but you can look at some of these lead indicators that will help you predict what\u2019s going to happen over the next couple months. To me, the two things that you need to be looking at are inflation, which we talked about, and the yield on a 10 year treasury, because that is going to dictate what happens to mortgage rates and affordability in the housing market.
All right, that is the end of my rant. I hope you all learn something. Hopefully you ate a delicious Thanksgiving sandwich while we were listening to this, and you learned something, filled your belly, had a great time off from work, hopefully. Thank you all so much for listening to this. If you have any questions about this\u2026 I know this is a wonky, complicated topic. If you have any questions about it, you can hit me up on BiggerPockets, or you can find me on Instagram where I\u2019m @thedatadeli. If you like this episode, please share it with a friend, or give us a five-star review on Apple or Spotify. We really appreciate it. Thank you so much for listening, and we\u2019ll see you next week for more episodes of On The Market.
On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer, and Kailyn Bennett, produced by Kailyn Bennett, by Joel Esparza and Onyx Media, research by Pooja Jindal, and a big thanks to the entire BiggerPockets team. The content on the show, On The Market, are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions, and investment strategies.<\/p>\n
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Note By BiggerPockets:<\/b> These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n
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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inflation may have just peaked. And with it, mortgage rates could come crashing down sooner than economists expect. But what would cause a scenario like this, especially as the Federal Reserve continues to bombard Americans with higher and higher interest rates? And, with supply chain shortages abound, how do we know that inflation won\u2019t boomerang […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/OTM_55_YT_.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4381"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4383,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4381\/revisions\/4383"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}