{"id":4633,"date":"2022-12-23T15:43:19","date_gmt":"2022-12-23T15:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/?p=4633"},"modified":"2022-12-23T15:43:19","modified_gmt":"2022-12-23T15:43:19","slug":"sales-slump-rates-drop-and-the-forever-renters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/23\/sales-slump-rates-drop-and-the-forever-renters\/","title":{"rendered":"Sales Slump, Rates Drop, and The Forever-Renters"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>There are few things more critical to a real estate investor than <strong>home prices, <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/mortgage-rate-outlook-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>mortgage rates<\/strong><\/a><strong>, and rent<\/strong>. Thankfully, those are three subjects that <strong>Redfin <\/strong>decided to tackle in their new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/on-the-market-46\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>2023 housing market predictions<\/strong><\/a><strong> list<\/strong>. But are these housing market projections the truth, or is the data showing something else entirely? We\u2019ve got Dave to fly solo this episode to break down these <strong>hot housing market takes <\/strong>to see which could truly come true in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Welcome back to <em>On the Market<\/em>. As we wind down the year, we\u2019re wrapping up as many <strong>real estate predictions and forecasts<\/strong> as possible so we can give you, the investors, the best chance of success in 2023! And although many of you have asked for<strong> Dave\u2019s crystal ball <\/strong>(it\u2019s just his head, people), he\u2019s brought something even better today to share: <strong>cold, hard housing market data<\/strong>! We\u2019ll be pinning it against Redfin\u2019s<strong> predictions on mortgage rates, housing prices, home sales, rents, and construction for 2023<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Some of these predictions seem far more likely than others, as the future remains mysteriously shrouded in possibilities of a<strong> global <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/on-the-market-23\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>recession<\/strong><\/a> or depression rocking the housing market over the next year. But let\u2019s get to what you really want to know:<strong> which markets will be saved<\/strong>, how low rates will go, and when you can expect to <strong>get even better deals on investment properties<\/strong>. All that (and much more) is coming up, so tune in!<\/p>\n<div style=\"overflow-y: scroll; max-height: 400px; background: #eee; padding: 20px; border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\n<p>Dave:<br \/>Hello, everyone. Welcome to On The Market. I\u2019m your host Dave Meyer, and I\u2019m doing this one solo. I\u2019m all by myself here, but we\u2019re going to have an awesome show. We\u2019re going to talk about and sort of summarize some of the major predictions for the 2023 housing market.<br \/>Now if you follow the show and hopefully you listen to lots of episodes, you\u2019ve probably heard a recent episode where we had the full panel and everyone came on and talked about their expectations for 2023, which was a really fun show. But we\u2019ve also want to know what other experts in the industry, perhaps people who maintain or build their own financial models or forecast models think are going to happen next year.<br \/>And one of my favorite sources for data in the entire real estate industry is Redfin. If you listen to this show or follow me on social media, you probably hear me quote it a lot. They actually have a ton of free data too. So if you want to download data or use their, if you want to just understand data about your local market, highly recommend you check out the Redfin data center.<br \/>This is not some paid sponsorship, I just use that website all the time, so you should check that out. But they also put out some reports and predictions based on all of their research. And today, I\u2019m going to go through some of the predictions that they are making for 2023. I\u2019m going to explain mostly why they think these things are going to happen.<br \/>I\u2019ll provide my own opinion on these predictions, provide some color, and I think it will give you a really good sense in a holistic manner of what is going to happen or what is sort of the most probable thing to happen in 2023. Of course, no one knows what\u2019s going to happen, there\u2019s just so much and unending uncertainty with the economy.<br \/>Just in the last couple of weeks we\u2019ve seen inflation numbers that were very encouraging, but then a few days later, the Fed raised the interest rates anyway, very uncertain if there\u2019s going to be a recession next year. So we don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen, but we always, as investors should be developing our own investment thesis.<br \/>Right? We should keep in our minds what we expect or at least think is the most likely scenario in the coming months so that we can make decisions. Because if you just have no opinion or just say, \u201cThere\u2019s, I have no idea what\u2019s going to happen,\u201d it\u2019s really hard to make decisions.<br \/>Whether even if your decision is to hold off on investing, that\u2019s okay, but that should be based on some thesis or belief about what\u2019s going to happen in the housing market and what\u2019s the best way to use your money in the coming months. So hopefully, this show\u2019s going to be super helpful to you. I think there\u2019s some really fun and interesting facts in here. We\u2019re going to take a quick break and after that we\u2019ll come back with these predictions.<br \/>Redfin\u2019s first prediction for 2023 is that home sales will fall to their lowest level since 2011 with a slow recovery in the second half of the year. So I actually strongly agree with this. If you\u2019ve been following data over the last couple of months, you\u2019ve seen that the volume of home sales, and I just want to make sure that you know that this prediction is not about home prices.<br \/>This is about home sales, the number of homes that transact every single year. That is what Redfin is predicting is going to fall to the lowest level since 2011. And I actually agree with this. I don\u2019t know necessarily know if we\u2019ll fall to 2011 or something similar to that, but I do think we\u2019re going to see a very big decline in home sales volume.<br \/>And this is really important. I think most people who are casually looking at the housing market sort of pay attention to housing prices first and foremost. But housing volume drives the entire industry. It has a huge impact on prices first of all, because if volume goes down, that usually signals that there\u2019s less demand in the market and that can soften prices.<br \/>But it also has huge implications for all of the different services, for example, being a real estate agent or loan officers or all the different things that tangentially touch the real estate investing world. And so what Redfin is saying here is that they think that there\u2019s going to be a huge decline in 2023.<br \/>And I agree, but let me just caveat saying why I agree with this. It\u2019s because I think the first half of the year is going to see big declines in a year over year sense. And when we compare things in a calendar year, that\u2019s how everyone wants to talk about things.<br \/>But when we look at 2022 and what\u2019s happened over this last year, you see two very different markets. In the first half of 2021, things were booming, prices were going up like crazy, homes were transacting really quickly. Second half of 2022, we\u2019ve seen a change to that.<br \/>So when we look at 2023 and we compare the first half of 2023 to 2022, it\u2019s going to look like a huge decline, right? Because last year the first half was crazy and we all know the market is cooled and it\u2019s not going to go crazy again in the first half of next year in my opinion.<br \/>And so we\u2019re going to see a really dramatic change in year over year numbers for the next couple of months, but that to me doesn\u2019t really necessarily signal that things are necessarily getting worse from where they are right now because we\u2019ve already seen home sales volume tank. Right? Since June, they\u2019ve been going down. We\u2019re now, I\u2019m recording this in the middle of December and we\u2019re see already seeing that home sales volume is down.<br \/>And so this is why I think Redfin is saying that they\u2019ll see a slow recovery in the second half of next year because again, first half of the next year we\u2019ll be comparing to a crazy 2022. Second half of next year, we\u2019ll be comparing to a slow half of 2022. And so we might see a recovery in home sales on a year over year basis towards the second half of next year.<br \/>So why is this happening? Why are we seeing this decline? Well, it\u2019s pretty obvious, right? It\u2019s because we have low affordability, right? Buyers just don\u2019t want to buy right now. Sellers don\u2019t want to sell right now. That is a perfect situation for lot, very few homes to start transacting. I\u2019ve called it a stalemate, we\u2019ve called it a standoff, a tug of war, whatever you want to call it.<br \/>Basically, sellers have anchored in their mind the prices from June of 2022. Whether that\u2019s right or wrong, I think it\u2019s a little bit crazy, but basically they\u2019re like, \u201cIf I had sold in June, I would\u2019ve made 20% more.\u201d And now they\u2019re going to hold out for that number for better or worse. That\u2019s what they want and they don\u2019t want to sell. Buyers on the other hand, just can\u2019t afford prices the way they are right now.<br \/>Prices went up and they were affordable when interest rates were two and a half or three percent, but now that they\u2019re six and a half percent, or I think they\u2019re actually lower than that as of this recording, but they\u2019re averaging around six and a half percent right now. Six and a half percent, it\u2019s just not affordable so they don\u2019t want to buy. And until one of those things change, I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see home sales volume increase. And to me, the thing that has to change is mortgage rates.<br \/>And we\u2019ll talk about that with the second prediction. Prediction number two from Redfin is that mortgage rates will decline ending the year below 6%. To me, this is the single most important variable in 2023. And all of the other predictions that Redfin is making, all the other things that I am saying here are really predicated on what happens with mortgage rates. I just said this, right?<br \/>What is going on in the housing market is affordability is too low and that is preventing people from buying, it\u2019s pushing down prices, so people don\u2019t want to sell. The main thing, affordability has three components. Right? It\u2019s home prices, debt, mortgage rates, and wages. And wages are still going up a little bit, but that happens pretty slowly. Home prices are coming down, but probably not enough to offset the increase in mortgage rates so far.<br \/>So what has to happen to restore some energy to the housing market is mortgage rates have to go down. And so this prediction, mortgage rates will decline ending the year below 6% would I think restore some energy to the housing market. But I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see this. Again, I think 2023 is going to be just like 2022 in the sense that it\u2019s going to be a tale of two halves, right?<br \/>2022, you can\u2019t describe the housing market in 2022 because the first half and the second half were totally different. I think we\u2019re going to see something similar in 2023 where the first half of 2023, we\u2019re going to still see a lot of uncertainty in the economy.<br \/>Mortgage rates are probably going to hang out where they are right now. And the mid-sixes might go up near seven, again, might hover near six, but let\u2019s say between six and seven is probably going to be the average in my opinion for the next couple of months. But then in the second half of next year, a lot of things could play out, right?<br \/>Inflation, there is a case that inflation goes down, there\u2019s a case that there\u2019s a huge recession and mortgage rates go down because of that. There\u2019s a case that the Feds cut interest rates. I think there are a lot of different scenarios where mortgage rates actually go down. And I know that is confusing to people because just two days ago the Fed raised interest rates again and actually mortgage rates went down right after that.<br \/>So let me just take a second and explain some of the different scenarios as why Redfin believes mortgage rates will go down in 2023. And I tend to agree with this. So the first is the more obvious scenario, which is that slowing, inflation slows and the Fed stops raising their Federal funds rate. Now the report that came out in mid-December reflects November numbers and shows that inflation on top level came down from 7.7% to 7.1%.<br \/>Don\u2019t get me wrong, 7.1% inflation is unacceptably high. It is crazy. It\u2019s still one of the highest numbers we\u2019ve seen in decades. But that is the fifth month in a row that the CPI has fallen. And I think the most important thing to take away from the CPI report from the other day is that prices only went up 0.1% in March. That is one of the slowest monthly increases that we\u2019ve seen.<br \/>And when we talk about the core CPI, which takes out the volatile food and energy sectors, that only went up 0.2%, which is the slowest monthly increase since August of 2021. So we are really seeing the pace of inflation start to come down. Now I know most Americans are not happy with inflation. It\u2019s still way too high. I totally agree. But this is the beginning of potentially a trend.<br \/>And if this trend continues, for example, if we see 0.1%, month over month inflation rates will be below the Fed\u2019s target by June. So this could signal that inflation is starting to get under control. And if that happens, the Fed could start stop raising their Federal Fund rate, which would stop putting upward pressure on bond yields and could make mortgage rates settle down. We could also see the spread between bond yields and mortgages start to come down.<br \/>So that is one scenario that is looking more and more likely right now because we\u2019ve seen good inflation prints the last couple of months. And in my opinion, there are some things that point to the inflation coming down even more. Mostly shelter costs. So this is kind of wonky, but the way that the, this last month, the main thing that was keeping inflation high was shelter, which is basically rent and something that they call owner\u2019s equivalent rent.<br \/>Basically, what a homeowner would buy, would pay in rent if they were renting their house instead of owning it. And the way that is collected in the CPI just kind of sucks. It\u2019s really lag, it lags a lot. And so it\u2019s still showing in the CPI that rents are going up really rapidly. But if you look at more current private sector data, there\u2019s tons of it out there, RealPage is a really good one if you want to check it out.<br \/>You can see that rents are flat or falling in most markets. And so that reality has been happening since July or August, but it\u2019s not reflected in the inflation report yet. And that is the main thing showing inflation going up in CPI. So when the real data starts to flow through the CPI in the first quarter of 2023, I think we\u2019re going to see inflation come down even more.<br \/>So I think this is one likely scenario. The second likely scenario that could push down mortgage rates, and I\u2019ve talked about this before, is basically a recession. And I know that is confusing, but basically what happens if the Fed over corrects, if they raise interest rates too much, which is another likely scenario right now, right?<br \/>Inflation is going down, but they\u2019re still raising interest rates. So another likely scenario is that there they over-correct and that there is a global recession. What happens in a global recession is that investors tend to look for safe investments. And one of the safest investments in the world is US treasuries like the 10-year bond.<br \/>And when people want that bond, that increases demand and that pushes down to yields. Again, I\u2019ve said this many times on the show, but bond yields dictate mortgage rates. And so when that pushes down yields, that could push down mortgage rates. So that is another very likely scenario. Right? We could have a big recession, bond yields could go down and mortgage rates could come down with it.<br \/>At the same time, if there\u2019s a big recession, the Fed might realize that they over-corrected and cut interest rates. Another thing that can help bring down mortgage rates. So those two scenarios I think are probably the more likely and why I agree that mortgage rates will probably come down in 2023. There is one scenario where mortgage rates rise though, there\u2019s probably few, but the most likely that I see is where the Fed raises rates like they are right now, but we don\u2019t go into a recession.<br \/>They call this kind of a soft landing. But maybe they keep raising interest rates, which will put upward pressure on bond yields and mortgage rates. But if we\u2019re not in a recession, then we won\u2019t see this huge demand for bonds that pushes down yield. So that is another scenario that could happen.<br \/>I don\u2019t know which of the three is most likely, but to me, two of the most likely scenarios push mortgage rates down and only one of the three likely scenarios pushes rates up. And so to me, I think the more probable outcome, and again, we don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen and you should be thinking in probabilities, that\u2019s the best way to think as an investor, in my opinion. I think the most probable scenario is that mortgage rates go down in the second half of 2023.<br \/>I don\u2019t think this is going to happen right away. So that\u2019s my reaction to prediction number two, that mortgage rates will decline. I don\u2019t know if they\u2019re going to be below 6% too. That\u2019s a specific forecast that I don\u2019t know, but I think they\u2019ll be somewhere between, let\u2019s say five and a half and six and a half.<br \/>Right? So they will come down from their recent average, and I think that will probably reinvigorate the housing market a little bit. The third prediction, home prices will post their first year over year decline in the decade, but the US will avoid a wave of foreclosures. Strongly agree on both of these. So number one, Redfin is predicting a 4% year over year drop. I\u2019ve made my predictions on YouTube, you can check those out.<br \/>But my estimate, and I don\u2019t maintain financial models, I basically, I\u2019m a data analyst. Right? I don\u2019t have all these economic models, but I can look at historical data and trends. And my opinion is that we\u2019ll probably see a national level decline in housing prices somewhere between three and eight percent next year. And remember that this is on a national basis.<br \/>Every market is going to behave differently and you have to really understand each of your markets. So I\u2019m just talking about on a national basis. And I think the really interesting thing here about Redfin\u2019s prediction is that they\u2019re basically admitting, if you look at the details, that they don\u2019t really know. That this is a really hard one to predict.<br \/>So in each of their predictions, they provide what they call a base case, which is what they think is going to be the most likely. They provide upside, so this is what happens if everything goes well. Or downside. Basically, if everything goes poorly, what\u2019s the worst case scenario. In data analytics or data science, you often see something called a confidence interval. Right? Or you see basically a band of likely outcomes.<br \/>And again, this is sort of, maybe this is becoming a theme for this episode, but you want to think in probabilities. Right? People are making these predictions like, \u201cIt will be 4%.\u201d But really when they do their analysis, it shows that it\u2019s the most likely is 4%, but they are really confident that it\u2019s going to be between 3% and negative 11%. Right? That\u2019s really what the math comes out to be, and that\u2019s actually what they say on their website.<br \/>So this is the headline that they decline 4%, but when you look at the details, what they\u2019re saying is that they see a scenario, it\u2019s not their most probable scenario, but they see a scenario where home prices actually go up 3% next year. That\u2019s probably if mortgage rates drop considerably. They are base case what they think the most likely scenario is negative 4%.<br \/>And they also think the downside is negative 11%. So they also see a scenario, again, not the most probable scenario, but they see a scenario where national housing prices could go down 11%. So I think that this is a good analysis honestly. I do think that the most likely scenario is mid-single digit declines. Again, I\u2019m saying negative three to negative eight percent is my belief. But there is downside risk.<br \/>There is a chance that things go way worse. If there\u2019s huge job losses or foreclosures or mortgage rates go to 10%, yes, that can happen. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the most likely scenario, but that can happen. There\u2019s also a case that mortgage rates fall and home prices go up next year. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the most likely scenario, but that can happen.<br \/>So I think this is a pretty good sober analysis of what\u2019s happening in the housing market. And I am personally anticipating a, like I said, a single digit decline in national housing prices next year. Now there was a second part of this prediction, which was that the US will avoid a wave of foreclosures, and I definitely agree with that.<br \/>In the next couple weeks, we\u2019re going to have Rick Sharga from ATTOM Data on. He is an expert in foreclosures. We already did the interview. We\u2019re banking a couple shows before the holidays. So I already spoke to Rick yesterday and he was talking about foreclosures. And although there is going to be a tick up, we\u2019re still far below normal levels and there\u2019s very low risk of foreclosures.<br \/>People, very few people are underwater on their mortgages right now. Even, Redfin came out and said this, that even if their base case of negative 4% growth next year, if home prices go down 4%, only 3% of people who bought during the pandemic would be underwater. So that\u2019s very few people would be underwater.<br \/>Being underwater doesn\u2019t mean you\u2019re going to go under into foreclosure as long as you keep making your payments. So that means very few people are at risk of foreclosure. And this is why Redfin, and I totally agree, I strongly agree with this, that there won\u2019t be a wave of foreclosures. If you want to learn more about that, check out the interview with Rick Sharga.<br \/>It\u2019s coming out in a week I think. Really fascinating conversation with Jemele, Rick and I, so check that one out. All right. So that\u2019s what everyone wants to know, right? That\u2019s the big headline. Right? I think housing prices are going to go down on a national level in the single digits. So does Redfin. Prediction number four, the Midwest and Northeast will hold up best as overall markets cool. I tend to agree with this one as well.<br \/>I do think that most markets are going to be impacted and go flat or even slightly negative, but when we look comparatively, it\u2019s kind of obvious. Right? The cities that grew the most during the pandemic are at the biggest risk. You see these cities like Reno and Boise and LA and Seattle and Phoenix and Austin that grew 20, 30, 40 percent. It\u2019s not sustainable.<br \/>The houses are not affordable in those markets. And so they have the largest likelihood of coming down, and most of them are already coming down. A lot of them have come down on a month over month from their peak. But what we really care about, again, don\u2019t believe everything you see on the internet when people say things are crashing, look year over year.<br \/>That\u2019s what you should care about when you look at a regional housing market. Year over year, they are starting to come down and that\u2019s to be expected. So I do think that this is a good analysis. If you look at some of the lead indicators for markets in the Northeast and the Midwest. And lead indicators are just data points that basically help predict future data points.<br \/>I think I like to look at inventory days on market, new listings. If you look at those things in cities like Boston or Philadelphia or some areas of Connecticut, Chicago, Madison, some of these cities in the Midwest and the Northeast, they look more stable. They don\u2019t look like they\u2019re reverting back to pre-pandemic trends in the same way as some of these West coast cities.<br \/>Look at Denver, look at Austin, look at California. You see inventory is spiking, days on market is spiking, and that puts downward pressure on prices. So I agree with this. I do also think that there are some areas in the Southeast that are overheated, and but there are some areas that are going to do well. So think about a city like Tampa in Florida.<br \/>Florida in general probably has some markets that are going to see some declines, like the villages. I think, I don\u2019t even know much about it, it\u2019s a planned community. But it just went crazy. And there\u2019s a lot of analysis out there that shows that the villages, for example, is going to take a hit, big hit. But I think areas Tampa, for example, seem to be doing really well.<br \/>So I think there are still subsections in the Southeast, in the West that are still going to hold up. Okay, but we\u2019re just talking generally speaking. If you want to talk on a regional basis, then yes, I agree, Midwest, Northeast are probably going to do best as a whole. But there are still markets in North Carolina that are going to hold up great and in the Southeast.<br \/>In Texas, there are markets that are probably still going to do well. Even in California, even in the West, there are some markets that\u2019ll do well, but on overall I agree with this. Brings us to prediction number five. Rents will fall and many Gen-Zers and young millennials will continue renting indefinitely.<br \/>All right, I have a lot of opinions about this. I\u2019m going to just say I don\u2019t necessarily agree with this. Rents will fall. Yes, I think rents are falling in some cities. We\u2019re seeing household formations slow down. But I think the rent is going to be very, very regional. Right? Some markets are definitely going to see rents continue to go up, right?<br \/>Areas with large population growth, wage growth are probably still going to see rents go up. And I do think some markets will see rents go down, probably in areas where there\u2019s a lot of large multi-family complexes coming online. If you look at some of the data coming out, there are areas where there\u2019s just so many multi-family units coming on, specifically in the second quarter of 2023.<br \/>Those areas could see rents come down. I mean, it\u2019s areas like, honestly, Arizona is one of the most guilty areas, Texas and Florida. So you might see rents come down, but generally speaking, rent is very sticky and I don\u2019t think it will fall that much. You might see 1%, 2%, 3% drops. On a national basis, I would be surprised if we see rent go down more than one or 2%.<br \/>So that could change. It could be wrong, but rent is generally really sticky. Just for context, back in 2008, the peak to trough home prices fell over 20%. Rent fell six to eight percent depending on who you believe. So it\u2019s a fraction, it\u2019s a third roughly of what home prices fell. And I think that\u2019s probably going to be true. Rent is just stickier than home prices generally.<br \/>Now I take exception to the second part of this prediction where they say that Gen-Z and young millennials will rent indefinitely. Now I don\u2019t know what that means. Does that mean they\u2019re going to rent for the next two years? Yeah, sure, probably. But I feel like for the last 15 years people have been saying, \u201cMillennials don\u2019t want to buy houses, they\u2019re renters forever. We\u2019re becoming a renter nation.\u201d And it\u2019s just not true.<br \/>I don\u2019t know how to say it in more ways, but the data just does not support this. First of all, the home ownership rate in the United States is relatively stable for the last 60 years. It goes between 63% and 69%. Right now we\u2019re at 66%. So we\u2019re right in the average over the last 60 years. So saying that we\u2019re a renter nation, not true currently. Of course things can change in the future, but right now that is not true.<br \/>And at least as of the last census reading, it was trending upward. So I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s going to continue, but the idea that we\u2019re all of a sudden all renters is just not accurate. The second thing is that people, since the Great Recession have been saying millennials don\u2019t buy homes. They don\u2019t want to buy homes. It\u2019s not that they don\u2019t want to buy homes, it\u2019s that they couldn\u2019t afford homes.<br \/>If you look at all the data, it shows that they couldn\u2019t. They weren\u2019t earning enough money. This was the aftermath of the great recession. Wages were really suppressed and they couldn\u2019t afford homes. Now when interest rates dropped and there was an infusion of cash into the market during the pandemic, millennials bought a ton of homes. It wasn\u2019t that they didn\u2019t want to buy homes, it\u2019s that they couldn\u2019t afford homes.<br \/>And as soon as macroeconomic conditions allowed them to buy homes, we saw this massive increase in demand for homes from millennials. And that is one of the major drivers that pushed up home prices over the last couple of years. So this idea, I don\u2019t know if Redfin is saying this, I don\u2019t know if they\u2019re saying that they\u2019ll never buy homes, but this idea that millennials or Gen-Z or any generation for that idea doesn\u2019t want to own their own home, I think is really overstated.<br \/>And it\u2019s just a matter of affordability. When people can afford homes, they tend to want to buy homes. And I think that is not going to change. So again, I do agree that given the low affordability in the entire housing market right now, young people are going to be hit the hardest by that. Right? They have the least time to save, they\u2019ve tend to have the lowest income.<br \/>And so it\u2019s likely that Gen-Z and young millennials will not be jumping into the housing market right now. But as soon as they\u2019re able to, I think they will jump in. All right, last prediction. They did make 12 predictions, but I sort of picked my favorite so not to keep you forever here. But the last prediction that they\u2019ve made here is builders will focus on multi-family rentals.<br \/>And this is another one I\u2019m a little bit conflicted about. So if we\u2019re talking relatively, are builder\u2019s going to build more multi-family than single family homes in 2023? Sure. Yeah. I believe that because there is a national housing shortage and it is more efficient to build multi-family than it is single family. But I just generally think construction is going to be down in 2023.<br \/>We are seeing, I just said sort of in the last when we were talking about rents, that there is a lot of supply coming online in multi-family rents in the next year. Not so much that it\u2019s going to make up all of the housing shortage over the last couple of years, but it\u2019s a lot. And so I do think if I were a builder, I would sort of want to see how things play out over the next couple months with rents, with cap rates, with interest rates.<br \/>And I wouldn\u2019t be building a lot. That\u2019s just me. I\u2019ve never built a house, so take that with a grain of salt. But I know I talk to a lot of syndicators, people who build, and I think that\u2019s the general sentiment is, yes, maybe if you are building, you\u2019re going to build multifamily instead of single families.<br \/>But generally think speaking, I think we\u2019re just going to see lower construction, which might help stabilize the market a little bit and not see a glut of supply. But overall, the US just needs more housing. And so I hope that I\u2019m wrong about that and I hope that we see more construction. Because generally speaking, to get the market to a place of more affordability where investors and homeowners can buy and the market becomes less volatile, right?<br \/>It\u2019s just so volatile right now. And that\u2019s not good for everyone. And I know people think that\u2019s odd coming from a real estate investor like, \u201cYou don\u2019t want to see the market go up like crazy? No, I don\u2019t. I want it to be predictable. And that is we, for that to happen, we need a better balance of supply and demand. And that is not where we\u2019re at. We need more supply.<br \/>And so I hope I\u2019m wrong about this, but I do think we\u2019re going to see construction come down quite a bit in 2023. All right. That is it for my predictions for, or I guess they\u2019re not my predictions, my reactions to Redfin\u2019s predictions for 2023. Thank you so much for listening. If you liked this episode, please make sure to give us a review.<br \/>We really, really appreciate it on either Apple or Spotify or subscribe to our YouTube channel. It really helps us and supports us in making the show. If you have any thoughts or questions about my reactions or thoughts of your own hot takes on the 2023 housing market, feel free to go on the BiggerPockets forums, we have an On The Market forum there. Or you can hit me up on Instagram where I\u2019m at the Data Deli.<br \/>Thanks again for listening. We\u2019ll see you next time for On The Market. On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. Produced by Kaylin Bennett. Editing by Joel Esparza and OnyxMedia. Research by Pooja Jindal. And a big thanks to the entire BiggerPockets team. The content on the show On The Market are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions, and investment strategies.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>Note By BiggerPockets:<\/b> These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/on-the-market-63\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are few things more critical to a real estate investor than home prices, mortgage rates, and rent. Thankfully, those are three subjects that Redfin decided to tackle in their new 2023 housing market predictions list. But are these housing market projections the truth, or is the data showing something else entirely? We\u2019ve got Dave [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/OTM_63_YT_.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4633"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4633\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4635,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4633\/revisions\/4635"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}