{"id":7735,"date":"2023-05-22T22:09:07","date_gmt":"2023-05-22T22:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/?p=7735"},"modified":"2023-05-22T22:09:07","modified_gmt":"2023-05-22T22:09:07","slug":"2023-summer-housing-market-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/22\/2023-summer-housing-market-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 Summer Housing Market Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div :class=\"{ 'hidden': $store.proContent.showFullPrompt() }\">\n<section class=\"px-4 relative border border-slate-200 mobile-toc lg:hidden\" x-data=\"{open:false}\">\n<button class=\"flex items-center gap-4 my-2 border-none w-full\"><br \/>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"h-6 w-6\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" d=\"M4 8h16M4 16h16\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"font-semibold text-slate-800 text-base m-0 js-toc-ignore\">In this article<\/h2>\n<p><\/button><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>It\u2019s difficult to predict what will happen in the housing market, even during normal times. Given that the economy is anything but normal right now, predicting what will happen in the housing market over the coming months is pretty much a fool\u2019s errand. But it\u2019s important to have an investing thesis, and it\u2019s also fun, so I will try anyway. <\/p>\n<p>Below I will share my five predictions for the housing market in the summer of 2023 and three important indicators to watch that could change my predictions completely.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>1. Mortgage Rates Will Fluctuate, But Will Remain Between 6.25% and 6.75%\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>As of this writing (mid-May), the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate 25 basis points at their last meeting but indicated that they are considering a pause going forward. I think the assumption the Fed is done tightening is overconfident, as core inflation remains high and the labor market is exceptionally tight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153223 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 2\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1-1024x358.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1-300x105.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1-768x269.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1-1024x358.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1-768x269.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:358\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153223 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 2\" alt=\"30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (2018-2023) - St. Louis Federal Reserve\" height=\"358\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:358\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-1.png\" alt=\"30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (2018-2023) - St. Louis Federal Reserve\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (2018-2023) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Regardless of what the Fed does, I think mortgage rates will stay relatively similar to where they\u2019ve sat for the last few months. Since peaking (so far) in November, mortgage rates have stayed in the mid-6s, despite the Fed raising the FFR several hundred basis points during that time. Bond yields have stayed steady, which means mortgage rates are steady.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>2. Home Prices Will Rise From Winter Lows, But Will Remain Down on a Year-Over-Year Basis<\/h2>\n<p>When we look at home prices, we need to look at month-over-month and year-over-year data. Monthly data shows the most recent information but neglects long-term trends. Yearly data does the opposite.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153227 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 3\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2-1024x763.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2-300x224.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2-768x572.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2-1024x763.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2-768x572.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:763\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153227 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 3\" alt=\"4-Week Rolling Average of the Median Sale Price of Homes Sold (2020-2023) - Redfin\" height=\"763\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:763\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-2.png\" alt=\"4-Week Rolling Average of the Median Sale Price of Homes Sold (2020-2023) - Redfin\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>4-Week Rolling Average of the Median Sale Price of Homes Sold (2020-2023) \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/data-center\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Redfin<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>When I look at sales price data, I see two things. First, seasonal patterns are holding. Prices have risen over the last couple of months after bottoming out in February. This is what typically happens. Secondly, although prices are rising, they are sitting below last year\u2019s prices and are down year-over-year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I believe this is likely to continue. In my view, the market will follow seasonal patterns but will remain under last year\u2019s prices at least through August. Although I don\u2019t think it\u2019s the most likely scenario, I think there\u2019s a decent shot the national market actually shows positive price growth sometime after the summer.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re wondering about my track record with predictions, the last time I made a price prediction was back in the fall of October 2022, and I said I believed the national housing market would be down somewhere between 3-8% by the end of 2023. Right now, the national median sales price is down 2-3%, depending on who you ask, so I\u2019m in range and still see this as the most likely scenario\u2014but a lot can happen before the end of the year!\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>3. Home Sales Will Not Recover<\/h2>\n<p>Seasonally-adjusted home sales volume is the lowest in about a decade. This tends to put downward pressure on housing prices but also has broad indications for the entire housing industry. Low sales volume hurts agents, loan officers, and other professionals serving the housing industry.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153229 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 4\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3-1024x643.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3-300x188.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3-768x482.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3-1024x643.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3-768x482.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:643\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153229 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 4\" alt=\"National Home Sales (2012-2023) - Redfin\" height=\"643\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:643\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-3.png\" alt=\"National Home Sales (2012-2023) - Redfin\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>National Home Sales (2012-2023) \u2013 Redfin<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That said, I don\u2019t believe that volume will recover anytime soon because there just aren\u2019t enough properties on the market, even if demand recovers. Which brings me to my next prediction:\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>4. July and August Will See the Lowest New Listings On Record<\/h2>\n<p>New listings measure how many properties are put up for sale in a given period and are in the gutter right now. Nationally, they are down about 22% year-over-year; in some markets, they\u2019re down more than 60%. There is not much on the market, and I don\u2019t see any signs of that changing in the coming three months.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153230 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 5\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4-1024x618.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4-300x181.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4-768x463.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4-1024x618.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:618\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153230 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 5\" alt=\"National New Home Sale Listings (2012-2023) - Redfin\" height=\"618\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:618\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-4.png\" alt=\"National New Home Sale Listings (2012-2023) - Redfin\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>National New Home Sale Listings (2012-2023) \u2013 Redfin<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As such, I see this July and August being the lowest totals for those months as far back as I have data. In other words, this July will have the fewest new listings of any July in the last 20 years. Expect the same thing for August. People just don\u2019t want to sell right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>5. Regional Differences Will Reign<\/h2>\n<p>So far, my first four predictions have all been about the national housing market, but we all know real estate is local. Here are my regional predictions:\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Northeast will see the most price growth over the summer, followed by the Midwest.<\/li>\n<li>The South will be a mixed bag. Some markets (like Miami, Florida) will continue to grow, while others (like Austin, Texas) will struggle.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>The West will see some markets rebound. It\u2019s been well documented that the West has seen the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/the-housing-market-correction-has-begun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">biggest price corrections<\/a> to date, but I think that might end in certain markets. Some cities like Salt Lake City, Utah; Los Angeles, California; and Denver, Colorado, have already shown signs of bottoming out, while markets like Boise, Idaho; and Las Vegas, Nevada, still show weakness.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153231 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 6\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5-1024x701.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5-300x206.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5-768x526.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5-1024x701.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5-768x526.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:701\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153231 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 6\" alt=\"Median Sale Price of Selected Western Metros (2018-2023)\" height=\"701\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:701\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-5.png\" alt=\"Median Sale Price of Selected Western Metros (2018-2023)\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Median Sale Price of Selected Western Metros (2018-2023)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Things To Watch<\/h2>\n<p>The predictions above represent what analysts call a \u201cbase case.\u201d This is what I believe to be the most likely scenario. But obviously, I don\u2019t know what will actually happen, and there are reasonable probabilities that the market will outperform my predictions or underperform them. To me, the most likely thing that could shift the market away from my base case are:\u00a0<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>A U.S. debt default<\/strong>: As of this writing, the government is in a stalemate trying to negotiate an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. If that doesn\u2019t happen and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/a-us-default-could-be-catastrophic-for-real-estate-investors\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. defaults on its debt<\/a> for the first time in history, it will almost certainly send mortgage rates up. Zillow recently predicted they would go up above 8%\u2014and when they come back down would be anyone\u2019s guess. If this happens, I think the downside case becomes more likely.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>The labor market<\/strong>: The labor market has been shockingly resilient in the face of rising interest rates, with almost every measurement of unemployment historically low.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153232 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 7\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6-1024x356.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6-300x104.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6-768x267.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6-1024x356.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6-300x104.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6-768x267.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:356\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153232 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 7\" alt=\"Percentage Change of Continued Claims, Insured Unemployment (2021-2023) - St. Louis Federal Reserve\" height=\"356\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:356\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-6.png\" alt=\"Percentage Change of Continued Claims, Insured Unemployment (2021-2023) - St. Louis Federal Reserve\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Percentage Change of Continued Claims, Insured Unemployment (2021-2023) \u2013 St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The labor market is strong even when you account for part-time jobs and people leaving the workforce. If the labor market \u201cbreaks\u201d and unemployment shoots up, it will likely cause a recession, possibly bringing down mortgage rates and helping the housing market. That is, of course, unless the unemployment situation gets really bad (over 6-7%), and then it might negatively impact the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><picture decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153233 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 8\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7-1024x352.webp 1024w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7-300x103.webp 300w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7-768x264.webp 768w,https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7-1024x352.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7-300x103.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7-768x264.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" type=\"image\/png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7.png?twic=v1\/cover=1024:352\/max=1000\/output=preview\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-153233 sp-no-webp\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 8\" alt=\"Employment to Population Ratio of Adults, 25-54 (2018-2023) - St. Louis Federal Reserve\" height=\"352\" width=\"1024\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=1024:352\/*\/max=1000\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/summer-housing-market-predictions-7.png\" alt=\"Employment to Population Ratio of Adults, 25-54 (2018-2023) - St. Louis Federal Reserve\"\/><\/noscript><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Employment to Population Ratio of Adults, 25-54 (2018-2023) \u2013 St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li><strong>Geopolitical turmoil<\/strong>: We all know there is a lot of tension with Russia, China, and generally in the world right now. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/how-the-war-in-ukraine-can-affect-u-s-housing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">International conflicts<\/a> can really impact the economy, but there\u2019s no way to know how without knowing the nature of the conflict. I just want to say that if there is some big international issue, it could throw off my predictions.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>This represents my current thinking about the housing market and where it will go over the summer of 2023. But all of this is far from certain. We\u2019ll have to check back in the fall and see how I did with these predictions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>In the meantime, I\u2019d love to hear your predictions for the 2023 summer housing market in the comments below.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"hero-block_62df1a82bfc88\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-slate-200-background-color has-text-color has-slate-900-color\">\n<div class=\"gap-10 lg:gap-20 flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n<div class=\"relative z-30 lg:w-2\/3 \">\n<main class=\"py-4\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size\"><strong>Analyze Deals Like a Pro<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:16px\">Deal analysis is one of the first and most critical steps of real estate investing. Maximize your confidence in each deal with this first-ever ultimate guide to deal analysis. <em>Real Estate by the Numbers<\/em> makes real estate math easy, and makes real estate success inevitable. <\/p>\n<p><\/main>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"lg:w-1\/3 first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/REBN_cover_mockup_01-e1679000020543.png?twic=v1\/cover=2306:2868\/max=1000\/output=preview\" alt=\"real estate by the numbers\" title=\"5 Big Predictions (And 3 Unknowns) That Will Define the Summer Housing Market 9\" data-twic-src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/REBN_cover_mockup_01-e1679000020543.png\" data-twic-src-transform=\"cover=2306:2868\/*\/max=1000\"\/><br \/>\n<noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/REBN_cover_mockup_01-e1679000020543.png\" alt=\"real estate by the numbers\"\/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"italic\"><b>Note By BiggerPockets:<\/b> These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/summer-2023-housing-market-predictions\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this article It\u2019s difficult to predict what will happen in the housing market, even during normal times. Given that the economy is anything but normal right now, predicting what will happen in the housing market over the coming months is pretty much a fool\u2019s errand. But it\u2019s important to have an investing thesis, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":7736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/neighborhood_matt-donders-boz4mBOeR2U-unsplash-1024x517.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7735"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7737,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7735\/revisions\/7737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}