{"id":8275,"date":"2023-07-13T00:13:41","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T00:13:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/?p=8275"},"modified":"2023-07-13T00:13:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T00:13:41","slug":"is-the-airbnb-collapse-actually-happening-heres-what-we-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/13\/is-the-airbnb-collapse-actually-happening-heres-what-we-know\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Airbnb Collapse Actually Happening? Here&#8217;s What We Know"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div :class=\"{ 'hidden': $store.proContent.showFullPrompt() }\">\n<section class=\"px-4 relative border border-slate-200 mobile-toc lg:hidden\" x-data=\"{open:false}\">\n<button class=\"flex items-center gap-4 my-2 border-none w-full\"><br \/>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"h-6 w-6\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" d=\"M4 8h16M4 16h16\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"font-semibold text-slate-800 text-base m-0 js-toc-ignore\">In this article<\/h2>\n<p><\/button><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There\u2019s no doubt that\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.airdna.co\/blog\/airbnb-hosting-tips-for-occupancy-in-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">occupancy rates are declining<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0for Airbnb properties amid a supply increase, but whether we\u2019re entering an Airbnb apocalypse or just seeing a heated market moderate depends on who you ask. Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure Consulting, began a\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/the-airbnb-collapse-is-real-rental-revenue-has-halved-in-some-parts-of-the-u-s-says-this-chart-83d72bbd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">viral debate<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0over the future of Airbnb revenue when he\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nickgerli1\/status\/1673774695693385728\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">tweeted a chart<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0based on data from short-term rental analytics firm Alltherooms, which depicted average revenue per listing falling up to 47.6% in some cities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Airbnb collapse is real.<\/p>\n<p>Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin. <\/p>\n<p>Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xjGkj7bFC5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/xjGkj7bFC5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nickgerli1\/status\/1673774695693385728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">June 27, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Gerli suggested the trend would impact the housing market, inducing a \u201cwave of forced selling from Airbnb owners\u201d in the affected cities. But data from AirDNA, a competing short-term rental analytics firm, tells a different story.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For example, the company reported that the year-over-year change in three-month-average revenue for Sevierville, Tennessee, was -9.4%, compared to the -47.6% supported by data from Alltherooms. AirDNA data revealed the largest revenue decline of the cities in Gerli\u2019s chart was in New Orleans, with a -14.9% drop, which was still a far cry from the -37.1% decrease in revenue shown from Alltherooms data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What\u2019s the True Airbnb Story?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It\u2019s difficult to say with accuracy. Tax revenue reports from local governments are not readily available for 2023, and\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/news.airbnb.com\/airbnb-q1-2023-financial-results\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Airbnb Q1 2023 financial results<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0aren\u2019t broken down by city, leaving data from the two analytics firms as the best available estimate of what\u2019s happening in these cities\u2014and data from the two sources differ drastically.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">To provide some context, we asked rental property management company\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/evolve.com\/vacation-rental-management\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Evolve<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0to look at their internal data. \u201cWhile it\u2019s difficult to get a true apples-to-apples comparison of the data between all three sources with varying inputs and slightly different calculations, Evolve\u2019s analysis most closely aligns with AirDNA,\u201d says Eric Schueller, executive vice president of revenue at Evolve. \u201cWe see these changes in revenue as a normalization of the market coming off of the peaks in 2021 and 2022. This is not a market crash\u20142023 will still bring the most nights ever booked, and investing in a short-term [rental] still remains a sound long-term option for owners.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Cities like Denver saw tax revenue from short-term rentals\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.denverpost.com\/2023\/03\/06\/denver-airbnb-spending-record-high-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">peak in 2022<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0as tourism recovered, but there was also a 21% year-over-year increase in short-term rental licenses in the city as of February 2023. Data from Airbnb and Evolve paint a similar picture\u2014demand for rental properties is booming, and Airbnb had its most profitable first quarter on record, but the supply of available rentals also increased 18% when compared to the first quarter of 2022. New investors flocked to the short-term rental strategy during peak demand, and increased competition is putting pressure on average daily rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cNationwide, both short-term rental market supply and demand are growing, with demand still hitting all-time highs,\u201d says Schueller. \u201cHowever, market supply growth is happening at a faster clip than market demand growth, causing total revenue per property to be down year over year.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But while the short-term rental strategy may not be reaping the same peak profits for Airbnb hosts in 2023 as in previous years, that doesn\u2019t mean vacation properties aren\u2019t profitable. AirDNA data still shows occupancy rates well above 2019 and 2020 levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But success for short-term rental property owners is both market-dependent and property-dependent. In some cities, there\u2019s too much competition to expect just any short-term rental property to flourish, but a showstopping property may still achieve high occupancy rates and revenues. In other cities, there may be enough demand to support new rentals. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen revenue increase year over year for markets such as Mammoth Lakes, California, and Baltimore,\u201d says Schueller.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">AirDNA listed Fairbanks, Alaska, as the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.airdna.co\/blog\/best-places-to-invest-in-us-vacation-rentals-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">top city for Airbnb investors in 2023<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, where occupancy rates reach 65%, and properties earn an average of $49,000 annually in revenue. The city scored highly for rental demand, a metric based on combined occupancy and booked listing growth rates. Other cities on the list include Evansville, Indiana, and Rockford, Illinois.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A wave of new\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/cities-fighting-airbnbs-with-regulations-for-short-term-rentals-2022-5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">short-term rental ordinances<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0in popular vacation destinations has also wiped out the potential for short-term rental investments in some of those areas, although most cities have not limited rentals for more than 30 days, meaning that the medium-term rental strategy is still viable. It\u2019s also growing in popularity\u2014there\u2019s been more than a\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.igms.com\/airbnb-long-term-rentals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">30% increase<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0in extended stays on Airbnb since 2019. Traveling professionals and digital nomads are using the platform to book rentals for a month or longer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">How Will Declining Revenues Impact Investors?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">While data from various sources differ, the sentiment from experts at AirDNA, Airbnb, and Evolve is consistent: The market is normalizing rather than crashing. Hosts still stand to make more money now than they did in 2019, before the boom in demand for vacation rentals.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It\u2019s possible the growth in supply will slow down as hosts on social media outlets issue warnings of\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/airbnbust-why-it-may-be-time-to-rethink-short-term-rentals\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">#Airbnbust<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, potentially deterring newbie investors from jumping into the market. In some of the most impacted cities, investors who bought properties when mortgage rates were elevated may opt to sell due to falling occupancy rates and low-profit margins, which would affect the supply of vacation homes. If supply growth slows, it\u2019s possible that falling revenues could plateau above 2019 levels rather than decline indefinitely.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Airbnb\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/airbnb-profit-revenue-travel-1b4ab1329ad4cb01ea5fae905a6826f7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">predicts<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0a slowdown in bookings growth and a decrease in average daily rates in the second quarter when compared to last year during the post-pandemic vacation rental frenzy. AirDNA still\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.airdna.co\/blog\/2023-us-mid-year-short-term-rental-outlook-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">forecasts<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0demand growth and an increase in average daily rates for the remainder of 2023, but revenue per available rental is expected to decline.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If you\u2019re looking to break into the short-term rental market, you should be very conscious of the available data for your market and always have a backup plan. There are several paid analytics platforms that can help you estimate the revenue potential for the markets you\u2019re interested in, and Evolve can also provide guidance for would-be rental property investors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">With more competition, you\u2019ll want to choose the optimal property as well as the right market, so gather local insights on the preferred amenities and number of bedrooms. Research other properties in the area, and make sure yours stands out from the pack. And in case you need to switch gears to remain profitable, calculate the expected revenue for the property in a medium-term or long-term rental scenario.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Schueller also has some advice for existing vacation rental property owners who are feeling the pain of decreased revenues, including:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Set competitive rates: <\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cLeveraging competitive rates adapted to today\u2019s market is one of the best ways for owners to lock in harder-to-win bookings,\u201d says Schueller. \u201cDepending on a region\u2019s activity, this could mean rates should be set differently from last month, last year, or even years past.\u201d Note that listings with the lowest prices have the highest occupancy rates, according to Airbnb.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Capture last-minute bookings: <\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Schueller notes that more travelers were booking rentals last-minute over the spring break holiday. \u201cOwners should also use booking trends to inform when to lower rates to capture interest from last-minute bookers and avoid having an empty property,\u201d he says.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Set a flexible cancellation policy: <\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A Vrbo study revealed\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/host.expediagroup.com\/vrbo\/en-us\/tools\/reservations-and-rates\/cancellation-policies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">77% of travelers<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0would be more likely to book a vacation home with a flexible cancellation policy. Travelers can filter out properties without free cancellation, so choosing a flexible cancellation policy may get more eyes on your property. Vrbo data also shows more frequent bookings for properties with flexible cancellation policies.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Collect great reviews: <\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Airbnb data\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.airbnb.com\/resources\/hosting-homes\/a\/why-reviews-matter-41\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">shows<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0travelers are more likely to book a listing with a high star rating, so ensure you\u2019re providing a great experience across categories: Provide an easy check-in process, maintain the property\u2019s cleanliness, ensure your listing is accurate, and communicate promptly with guests.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Consider getting help from a property manager: <\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Managing a rental property in a competitive market can be overwhelming and may require more effort than you\u2019re willing to put in. Says Schueller: \u201cUltimately, we find that vacation rental owners that manage their own properties are most successful when they treat their business like their full-time job, so for owners who are unable to dedicate that amount of time and energy,\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/evolve.com\/blog\/homeowner-tips\/how-to-hire-a-rental-property-management-company\/?utm_source=earned&amp;utm_medium=pr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">partnering with a property manager<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0who already knows what success looks like is often the better option.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Bottom Line<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The high revenue that short-term rental property investors captured in 2021 and 2022 may have been unsustainable\u2014while plenty of people still want to travel, the new supply of properties brought by eager investors is driving down the average revenue for each host. It may be too early to tell whether a crash is underway, but most data sources seem to support a revision from the peak rather than a collapse. There\u2019s still an opportunity for investors to profit from short-term rentals, according to Schueller, but it\u2019s necessary to exercise caution, especially in oversaturated markets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"hero-block_62df1a82bfc88\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-theme-gold-light-background-color has-text-color has-theme-gold-color\">\n<div class=\" flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n<div class=\"relative z-30 w-full \">\n<main class=\"py-4\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-theme-gold-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:800\">Get the Best Funding<\/p>\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:16px\">Quickly find and compare investor-friendly lenders who specialize in your unique investing strategy. It\u2019s fast, free, and easier than ever!<\/p>\n<p><\/main>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\" first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  shadow-xl rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Lender-Match.png\" alt=\"find a lender with lender match\" title=\"Is the Airbnb Collapse Actually Happening? Here's What We Know 2\"\/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"italic\"><b>Note By BiggerPockets:<\/b> These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/is-the-airbnb-collapse-actually-happening\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this article There\u2019s no doubt that\u00a0occupancy rates are declining\u00a0for Airbnb properties amid a supply increase, but whether we\u2019re entering an Airbnb apocalypse or just seeing a heated market moderate depends on who you ask. Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure Consulting, began a\u00a0viral debate\u00a0over the future of Airbnb revenue when he\u00a0tweeted a chart\u00a0based on data [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8276,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/lake-house-1024x517.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8275"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8275\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8277,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8275\/revisions\/8277"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8276"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}