{"id":8735,"date":"2023-08-08T04:37:13","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T04:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/?p=8735"},"modified":"2023-08-08T04:37:13","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T04:37:13","slug":"the-housing-recession-is-over-says-nar-is-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/08\/the-housing-recession-is-over-says-nar-is-it\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;The Housing Recession is Over&#8221; Says NAR\u2014Is It?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div :class=\"{ 'hidden': $store.proContent.showFullPrompt() }\">\n<section class=\"px-4 relative border border-slate-200 mobile-toc lg:hidden\" x-data=\"{open:false}\">\n<button x-on:click=\"open = !open\" class=\"flex items-center gap-4 my-2 border-none w-full\"><br \/>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"h-6 w-6\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" d=\"M4 8h16M4 16h16\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"font-semibold text-slate-800 text-base m-0 js-toc-ignore\">In this article<\/h2>\n<p><\/button><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Home prices have increased steadily\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/home-prices-rose-for-the-fourth-straight-month\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">month-over-month since February<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. In fact, home prices went up a whopping 4% between February and May alone, according to the CoreLogic S&amp;P Case-Shiller Index released in July.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">And while today\u2019s prices are still slightly below year-ago numbers, the continued uptrend has many wondering: Has this latest housing downturn already come to an end?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to one major industry player, it has. Here\u2019s what they have to say\u2014and the data that might just back them up.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">NAR: Recession is Over, But Recovery is Not<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The National Association of Realtors\u2019 (NAR) latest pending sales report shows pending home sales were up slightly in June\u2014the first increase since February of this year. This, combined with a dearth of inventory and subsequently rising prices, has the trade group\u2019s chief economist calling the recession officially over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cThe recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,\u201d says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. \u201cThe presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That lack of supply Yun mentions has been a problem for years. But recent mortgage rates\u2014which are considerably higher than what the majority of homeowners have on their current mortgage \u2014have worsened the issue, keeping many existing homes off the market.\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/us-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to Redfin data<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, the number of for-sale homes is down 12.5% compared to last year as of June.\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/zillow.mediaroom.com\/2023-06-22-Affordability-crisis-United-States-needs-4-3-million-more-homes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Zillow data<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0from 2021 also shows that the U.S. market is about 4.3 million homes short of demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That\u2019s why, despite the recession being \u201cover\u201d by Yun\u2019s assessment, we won\u2019t see a total about-face in the market anytime soon. This means there won\u2019t be skyrocketing prices like we saw in 2021, nor will rampant bidding wars likely be the case.\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/us-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to Redfin<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, about 40% of homes sold for above listing price in June\u2014down 15% compared to last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What Will the Market Look Like?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Instead of a complete turnaround, the near-term housing market will likely look more stable than we\u2019ve seen over the last year or so. Mortgage rates have \u201ctopped out,\u201d Yun posits, and\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-rose-0-3-in-june-first-increase-in-four-months#:~:text=%22The%20recovery%20has%20not%20taken,up%20production%20and%20hiring%20workers.%22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">NAR estimates<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will finish out 2023 at 6.4%. For 2023,\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/48386\/display\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fannie Mae projects<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0a 6.6% average, and the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/docs\/default-source\/research-and-forecasts\/forecasts\/mortgage-finance-forecast-jul-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=130f078e_1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Mortgage Bankers Association predicts<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a05.9%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">All of these projections are lower than\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">today\u2019s 6.9% rate<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, but they don\u2019t amount to any significant drop. And until rates fall more considerably, they likely won\u2019t cause any major influx in demand that could rock the market. According to Yun, \u201ca rush of buyers\u201d would take what he calls a \u201cmeaningful decline\u201d in interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That meaningful decline isn\u2019t likely until next year or beyond, according to most. Here\u2019s a look at how major industry players think rates will shake out by the end of 2024:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">NAR:<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a06%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fannie Mae:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">5.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">MBA:<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a04.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">These slightly lower rates could spur minor increases in demand, sales, and prices, per NAR\u2019s estimations. While the group expects home prices to remain fairly steady this year, with a small decline of just 0.4% across the year, by the end of 2024, the organization predicts prices will increase by 2.6% and sales by more than 15%.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Construction Factor<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Though mortgage rates play a role in how much inventory hits the market, so do home builders. And they\u2019ve been largely under-building since the crash of 2008.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">While that likely won\u2019t change this year (housing starts are projected to come in 5.3% under last year\u2019s numbers by the close of 2023), next year could mark a turning point. NAR expects 1.55 million starts next year\u2014up 5.4% for the year. Keep in mind, though, starts on single-family homes take\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/avg_starttocomp.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">about 8.3 months<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0from start to completion, so it could be a while for that supply to trickle down to consumers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cIt is critical to expand supply as much as possible to widen access to homebuying for more Americans,\u201d Yun says. \u201cHome prices will be influenced by how much inventory is brought to market. Increased homebuilding will tame price growth, while limited construction will lead to home price appreciation outpacing income growth.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll just have to see how it all plays out.<\/p>\n<div id=\"hero-block_62df1a82bfc88\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-slate-200-background-color has-text-color has-theme-gold-color\">\n<div class=\"gap-10 lg:gap-20 flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n<div class=\"relative z-30 lg:w-1\/2 \">\n<main class=\"py-4\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-slate-800-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:800\">Find an Agent in Minutes<\/p>\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:18px\">Match with an investor-friendly agent who can help you find, analyze, and close your next deal.<\/p>\n<p><\/main>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"lg:w-1\/2 first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/bpimg.twic.pics\/https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Agent-Finder-Block-2.png\" alt=\"find an investment-friendly real estate agent\" title=\"&quot;The Housing Recession is Over&quot; Says NAR\u2014Is It? 2\"\/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"italic\"><b>Note By BiggerPockets:<\/b> These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/housing-recession-is-over-according-to-nar\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this article Home prices have increased steadily\u00a0month-over-month since February. In fact, home prices went up a whopping 4% between February and May alone, according to the CoreLogic S&amp;P Case-Shiller Index released in July. And while today\u2019s prices are still slightly below year-ago numbers, the continued uptrend has many wondering: Has this latest housing downturn [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/realestateinvesting_tom-rumble-7lvzopTxjOU-unsplash-1024x517.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8735"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8737,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8735\/revisions\/8737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}