{"id":8859,"date":"2023-08-20T22:00:57","date_gmt":"2023-08-20T22:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/?p=8859"},"modified":"2023-08-20T22:00:57","modified_gmt":"2023-08-20T22:00:57","slug":"chinas-property-troubles-worsen-ramping-calls-for-bolder-policy-help","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/20\/chinas-property-troubles-worsen-ramping-calls-for-bolder-policy-help\/","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s property troubles worsen, ramping calls for bolder policy help"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-107287878\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Aerial photo shows a rural residential area in Chengdong town of Hai &#8216;an City, East China&#8217;s Jiangsu Province, April 1, 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>China&#8217;s real estate troubles are accelerating. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/20\/chinas-homebuyers-are-running-out-of-patience-with-the-real-estate-slump.html\">Prospective home buyers are holding back<\/a> on making purchases, leading to weak sales that compound the urgent need for policymakers to step up support for the industry.<\/p>\n<p>New home sales for the top 100 developers dropped by about a third in June and July from a year ago, after double-digit growth earlier in the year, said Edward Chan, a director at S&amp;P Global Ratings. With most apartments in China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/10\/china-property-market-roiled-by-default-fears-country-garden-spooks-investors.html\">sold before they are completed<\/a>, weak new home sales will likely lead to significant cash flow issues for developers.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We think the situation is probably getting a little bit worse because of this Country Garden incident,&#8221; Chan told CNBC in a phone interview Thursday. He added he hasn&#8217;t seen any improvement in new home sales so far.<\/p>\n<p>At a time when rafts of data are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/15\/china-economy-july-industrial-output-fixed-asset-retail-data.html\">pointing to a rapidly slowing economy<\/a>, this lack of improvement, along with <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/2007-HK\/\">Country Garden<\/a><span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>&#8216;s looming default, is making it more difficult for property developers to raise funds.<\/p>\n<p>Late Thursday in the U.S., the world&#8217;s most indebted property developer Evergrande <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/18\/china-property-developer-evergrande-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-in-us.html\">filed for bankruptcy<\/a> protection, further shaking up investor confidence.<\/p>\n<p>The deepening crisis of confidence is adding to pressure on the world&#8217;s second-largest economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-107287197\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-107287197\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000312082\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/107287198-16921509521692150949-30776802708-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1692158533&amp;w=750&amp;h=422&amp;vtcrop=y\" alt=\"China: Analyst discusses Country Garden's exposure to upper and lower tier cities\"\/><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote data-test=\"Pullquote\">\n<div class=\"Pullquote-pullquote\" style=\"border-top-color:#002f6c\">\n<div>\n<p>The debt troubles at Country Garden and the uncertainty of government support are feeding into broader unease in the Chinese housing market.<\/p>\n<div class=\"Pullquote-sourceWrapper\">\n<p>Louise Loo<\/p>\n<p>Oxford Economics<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The Chinese property sector has been reeling since 2020, when Beijing cracked down on the debt levels of mainland property developers.<\/p>\n<p>Years of exuberant growth led to the construction of ghost towns where supply outstripped demand as developers looked to capitalize on the desire for home ownership and property investment.<\/p>\n<p>These measures, known as China&#8217;s &#8220;three red lines&#8221; policy, point to three specific balance sheet conditions developers must meet if they want to take on more debt.<\/p>\n<p>The rules require developers to limit their debt in relation to the company&#8217;s cash flow, assets and capital levels, with highly indebted developer <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-10\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/3333-HK\/\">Evergrande<\/a><span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> the first <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/12\/10\/evergrande-slides-into-default-while-some-ratings-agencies-keep-quiet.html\">headline-grabbing default<\/a> in late 2021.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"\/>Country Garden&#8217;s woes<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>A default by Country Garden could add $9.9 billion to the year-to-date global emerging markets high-yield corporate default tally, taking the total default volume for the Chinese property sector to $17 billion to-date in 2023, JPMorgan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/16\/jpmorgan-hikes-em-default-forecast-as-country-garden-drives-china-contagion-fears-.html\">said in a note<\/a> dated Aug. 15.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. investment bank expects China property to account for nearly 40% of all emerging market default volumes in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Much of Country Garden&#8217;s problems have to do with its outsized exposure to less developed parts of China known as lower-tier cities. About 61% of developments, according to the company&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https:\/u23309732.ct.sendgrid.net\/ls\/click?upn=LDLJfNMe7DQhCl-2F-2B2GVIJxieq5HglqLia3Fcva9knElD-2BUQMFoBSiCojncRGwiUjiRAHsS8Gch2c6zSltkA-2BxLRKsYeisvRuuY-2FzHdBTmkCBN8HuF1cYPdbX-2Fsw5ca-2B9Sg_C_zZFJguFAbovdERyfo7WtZkbQS2Ii3y5T2aL0mUxp-2Fh1QnCv2XQ0QD-2F1H8350LTiBYwYZq8C1V3FxGKwPPJnRQM1zraU7LfZtNHYzxHWN2h6nNsDgbv9AWn-2FGkBC3Be45m2tPEFggl50c8pqplMP5O4GdQ-2BcgRqVLA9kUQ6T2EcrHdgAN06PVLzZeQZUFDRemjOG5VkWSakxp8RiNU9iQGBMyZ-2FSuSTCTJ5k2xK2rWdg4EcML3e-2Be36y0lF34EQP9wlhY0XOq0C5FaB-2FKrdQuqqdYZ6LhCqlVzrIIkBbtEFct4bwl8zXP6hJm0m6ucfPyw0nuzLscC-2Fz18AL4QDJ8ZeZyxOfPLY4SMivBYa0lKdAShSjjF5glOlm882D1fUMMYg92UeaYU2-2BHh2jVwN83pGEiEQHg73pxOgFckRlnxgqRUm1HiRGcKzoOT08waRk7fwzX0jdOl0VTb-2BPSGaVeuLTVoEc32v05rO2TJrsbNoVOIdYuGJEybK6xTCd7oj5SSqI8Wus5nZVb68xb4pbjCBUsJ1EUzwNcH-2FUuucDy92Dn3bYJo1vTSZ0HatA0QHLFKHjsQdxpl4eXMR2ssUNKknRAvyfl1KZ1HL4B8TZj90iiCz1VPXRRPAXXbz-2B-2B9Nx8F-2FF28tbIlnVi2QvgzQuB7Q-3D-3D__;!!PIZeeW5wscynRQ!qOMzNDzgVVFmFHpDVnMIkw112DO1km2DF_m_D2rqvNa-LCe_ZXZEp0OlwTjrIrRxbss2q3cu4lZLy7gvXC1HeuLBRu8$\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2022 annual report<\/a>, are in these lower-tiered cities, where housing supply outstrips demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-107287470\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-107287470\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000312140\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/107287471-16921976541692197652-30783921377-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1692198030&amp;w=750&amp;h=422&amp;vtcrop=y\" alt=\"Country Garden's economic fallout comes to light as China's real estate woes continue\"\/><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>&#8220;Country Garden sales performance has been kind of disastrous,&#8221; S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Chan said, noting that sales in June and July dropped by about 50% year-on-year.<\/p>\n<p>Chan said that lower-tier cities started to see sales weakness in May, while higher-tier cities started to see sales worsen in subsequent months.<\/p>\n<p>As a result of Country Garden&#8217;s troubles, Chan said it&#8217;s &#8220;becoming more and more challenging&#8221; for China&#8217;s overall real estate sales to reach S&amp;P&#8217;s base case of 12 trillion yuan to 13 trillion yuan this year.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Instead of an L-shape it could be a descending staircase,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Chan said S&amp;P&#8217;s bear case for China&#8217;s property sector is for 11 trillion yuan in sales this year, and 10 trillion yuan for 2024.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s still only nearly half of what the country&#8217;s real estate market sales were at its peak 2021 \u2014 at 18 trillion yuan, according to figures Chan shared.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>At their mid-year economic review meeting in July, China&#8217;s top leaders vowed to &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/07\/24\/china-vows-to-optimize-property-policy-in-tortuous-economic-recovery.html\">adjust and optimize<\/a> policies in a timely manner&#8221; for its beleaguered property sector.<\/p>\n<p>To date, they have yet to clearly demonstrate their plan to adapt to &#8220;major changes&#8221; in the demand-supply dynamics in the property market.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The debt troubles at Country Garden and the uncertainty of government support are feeding into broader unease in the Chinese housing market,&#8221; Louise Loo, lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note dated Aug. 11.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"\/>Land sales divergence<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>As China&#8217;s property sector consolidates amid the debt and credit malaise, state-owned developers are better positioned to grow than non-state ones.<\/p>\n<p>State-owned developers saw contracted sales grow by 48% in the first seven months of this year from a year ago, while developers that were not state-owned saw sales fall by 19%, according to data from Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.<\/p>\n<p>This is enhancing state-owned developers&#8217; ability to buy land from local governments since robust home sales are boosting their cash flow.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Nowadays, 87% of the land purchases are by [state-owned enterprises], so how do you expect [privately owned enterprises] to grow further?&#8221; Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, said in a phone interview Tuesday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-107272816\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-107272816\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000308376\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/107272817-16896741401689674137-30354722699-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1689732928&amp;w=750&amp;h=422&amp;vtcrop=y\" alt=\"Expectations on China property investment have shifted: Portfolio manager\"\/><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>For this year through July, 87% of land purchases by value were by state-owned developers, similar to last year, Natixis data showed. That&#8217;s up sharply from 59% in 2021, the data showed.<\/p>\n<p>Ng expects state-owned developers to have greater ownership in China&#8217;s real estate market going forward. But he said that while non-state-owned developers have had leverage problems in the past, having so many state-owned developers in the industry might make it more difficult to forecast actual demand.<\/p>\n<p>Still, underlying housing demand in first-tier cities remains somewhat resilient and untapped, and may be unleashed once there&#8217;s greater policy clarity.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Timely policy in stabilizing the demand and sales in the higher-tier cities would be very important,&#8221; said Chan from S&amp;P Global.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If that could be achieved then over time, the stabilization could be spilled over to the lower-tier cities. But that will take an even longer time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more about China from CNBC Pro<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/18\/chinas-property-troubles-worsen-ramping-calls-for-bolder-policy-help.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aerial photo shows a rural residential area in Chengdong town of Hai &#8216;an City, East China&#8217;s Jiangsu Province, April 1, 2023. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images China&#8217;s real estate troubles are accelerating. Prospective home buyers are holding back on making purchases, leading to weak sales that compound the urgent need for policymakers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8860,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/107287878-1692248610087-gettyimages-1250413357-Rural_Infrastructure_Construction_In_China.jpeg?v=1692323081&w=1920&h=1080","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8859"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8859\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8861,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8859\/revisions\/8861"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8860"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/imsfund.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}