October 2022

Is Florida’s Housing Market About To Get Even More Unaffordable? What You Need To Know


The Sunshine State is hot, both in temperature and in its housing market. Siesta Key Beach on Florida’s west coast is consistently ranked one of the best beaches in the world. The area has an obvious draw that brings new residents in droves—it’s been one of the fastest growing parts of the country over the last decade—along with travelers willing to pay an average of $248/night in popular destinations like Sarasota. But Hurricane Ian is estimated to have caused $67 billion in privately insured losses and an additional $10 billion in losses from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), according to risk modeling company RMS

What will happen to the area’s real estate, rental, and insurance costs after this catastrophic event? That remains to be seen, but Florida’s coastal homes may become even more out of reach for everyday homebuyers, shifting the market into the hands of wealthy investors who can still make a killing on vacation rentals. 

What Happens to Real Estate Prices After Hurricanes?

After each of the most expensive hurricanes over the last 32 years, the areas impacted saw greater home value appreciation in the year following the event than the year before. For example, Miami’s appreciation before Hurricane Andrew was 3.5%, but it grew to 8.7% in the year following. The trend was the same even when the appreciation was taken as a percentage of overall appreciation for the nation, which helped to remove other factors affecting home values. 

A separate study looking at zip code-level data found a temporary dip in home values in the immediate areas directly hit by a hurricane but a strong recovery in the long run. Eventually, growth in areas hit by a hurricane outpaced growth in similar unaffected areas. That’s consistent with the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s data, which found that the hardest-hit area of Florida after Hurricane Andrew experienced a decline in transactions and stable appreciation immediately following the hurricane, with accelerated growth later on. 

A National Association of Realtors case study looked at hurricanes that made landfall in Florida in 2004 and 2005 and found that even five months after the 2005 hurricanes hit, affected regions were seeing a reduction in home sales, which the authors attributed to rising insurance costs. But the area eventually rebounded as well. 

Supply and demand explain the phenomenon. When homes are destroyed, people seek new places to live. The shortage of homes and increased building costs raise the prices of available homes in the surrounding areas. What’s surprising is that people are increasingly moving into hurricane-prone areas. It’s not just the locals relocating.

Will Florida’s real estate market accelerate as historical data suggests? Or will this be a different crisis? To answer this, it’s important to understand what was happening with homebuilding and insurance rates before the storm struck. 

Development and Insurance Before Ian

When the demand for housing in a coastal state is high, real estate developers will build. Even if it means building on top of a natural wetland marsh that would leave inland areas even more vulnerable to a storm surge. The dredge-and-fill technique, which involves piling up land taken from underwater, was used to increase the availability of waterfront housing in Florida through much of the 20th century, despite the environmental fallout. 

Then, in 2011, Florida’s former governor, Rick Scott, eliminated the state agency responsible for evaluating the risk of development and limiting new construction in vulnerable areas. Rampant development went unchecked, potentially causing more destruction when Ian made landfall and angering reinsurers. 

After Hurricane Andrew devastated Miami in 1992, most major national property insurance companies stopped doing business in Florida or began writing fewer policies. All that was left were smaller insurance providers that heavily relied on reinsurance companies, along with Citizens, a state-mandated insurer that is designed to provide last resort coverage to homeowners who lack options for private insurance. It’s a nonprofit funded mainly by homeowner premiums and special assessments. 

Before Ian, reinsurers were already raising their prices for coverage, and Citizens could only get half of what the company needed in reinsurance. Overall, Florida’s property insurers have been losing money for the past five years. Insurance costs in the state were already becoming unaffordable before Ian struck. 

What Will Happen to Florida’s Real Estate Market as a Result?

For many real estate agents selling homes near Ian’s path, demand hasn’t slowed. Some housing experts predict a temporary downturn followed by a return to the pre-hurricane, overheated market. But others say the rising cost of insurance premiums and building materials coupled with high-interest rates will eventually cause home values to decline in the area, putting an end to southwest Florida’s real estate boom. Analysts say real estate recovery from Ian may look different from past disasters because the effect of weather events is typically transient, but Florida homeowners are looking at ongoing high costs of ownership due to unaffordable insurance premiums.

More insurers in Florida may face bankruptcy. Those that stick around will raise premiums significantly. People were already paying $20,000 per year or more for modest homes, and Ian will only make costs more dramatic, says a Miami agent. Some people may not be able to get property insurance at all—and without insurance, financial institutions will not issue a mortgage. Most prospective homebuyers rely on financing, so this would greatly reduce the number of buyers, causing the value of homes in the area to fall. 

Investors may see this as an opportunity. After all, Florida’s coast won’t cease to be a beautiful place to live and vacation. Historically, homebuyers haven’t seemed deterred by disasters—the dream of owning oceanfront property remains for many. If the insurance market collapses, some experts say hurricane-prone areas of Florida could become neighborhoods for homeowners wealthy enough to buy and rebuild with cash, along with rental buildings owned by companies with plenty of reserves. The home affordability crisis will mean those building owners can charge high rents. 

But natural disasters are getting more costly and more destructive, leading some experts to wonder if we should be moving away from these vulnerable places—and whether the availability of flood insurance through the NFIP is hurting more than it’s helping. 

The Problem With Subsidized Insurance and Climate Change

Most flood insurance is provided to homeowners through NFIP policies, which are underwritten by FEMA. The program is funded by insurance premiums and by money from Congress. But after each natural disaster, the NFIP borrows from the Treasury. And the program’s borrowing authority keeps increasing as storms get more severe. 

The premiums homeowners pay for flood insurance from the NFIP reflect less than half the level of risk. The median value of properties in the program is about double the value of a typical home, so the benefits of the subsidies are going to more affluent homeowners. Some say the program incentivizes development in flood-prone areas: People choose to live in places they know are at risk of flooding because they know they can get flood insurance. When their homes are eventually destroyed, the burden falls on taxpayers. If coastal homeowners were forced to deal with the cost of their risky decisions, we might see a different migration trend. At the very least, builders might be encouraged to use more weather-resistant construction materials. 

FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0 is designed to make pricing for premiums more transparent and equitable, reflecting the actual risk of a specific home to flooding. But the fact remains that affordable flood insurance premiums won’t cover the damage from new hurricanes. Stronger building codes could lessen the cost next time around. But some experts say we should rethink rebuilding in dangerous areas altogether and that policy decisions going forward should discourage people from living in flood zones, not the reverse. 

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Pending home sales fell 10% in September from August


Pending home sales plunge 31% versus one year ago amid rising mortgage rates

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, dropped a much worse-than-expected 10.2% in September from August, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Economists had predicted a 4% decline. Sales were down 31% year over year.

This marks the lowest level on the pending sales index since June 2010, excluding April 2020, when the Covid pandemic was in its early days.

Realtors point squarely to sharply higher mortgage rates, which had sat at record lows for the first two years of the pandemic. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was right around 3% at the start of this year, but then rose swiftly, crossing 6% in June, according to Mortgage News Daily. It pulled back a bit in July and August, but then began rising again, crossing 7% in September, when these contracts were signed.

A Coldwell Banker “Under Contract” sign stands outside a property in Washington, D.C.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“Persistent inflation has proven quite harmful to the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve has had to drastically raise interest rates to quell inflation, which has resulted in far fewer buyers and even fewer sellers.”

Mortgage demand and new listings are dropping, too, because homeowners are unwilling to give up their record-low interest rates to trade up to a much higher one. For potential buyers, the increase in rates means the monthly payment on a median-priced home, with a 20% down payment, is now close to $1,000 higher than it was in January.

“With wages falling behind on account of inflation, and rates rising, buyers’ purchasing power has been reduced by over $100,000,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com.

“As we look to the remainder of the year, we can expect interest rates to continue their upward trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening has not yet made a dent in inflation, which means that the bank is expected to hike its policy rate further,” he added.

While red-hot home prices are starting to cool and even drop in some local markets, the decline is not enough to make up for the increase in interest rates. Home prices are up more than 40% since the start of the pandemic, fueled largely by those rock-bottom interest rates early on.

Regionally, pending home sales dropped 16.2% month to month in the Northeast and were down 30.1% year over year. In the Midwest, sales were down 8.8% for the month and 26.7% from one year ago.

In the South, sales retreated 8.1% for the month and were down 30.0% year over year, and in the West, the most expensive region in the nation, sales fell 11.7% for the month and were down 38.7% from the year before.



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Real Estate Horror Stories: Navigating Six-Figure Losses


There’s a dark side of real estate no one talks about. Crime, destruction, theft, violence—you name it, we’ve dealt with it. With the spookiest day of the year coming close, we’re going to tell you all our terrible real estate tales. Everyone on podcasts and YouTube wants to show you how easy it is to invest, how it’s an assured path to wealth, and rarely what type of mistakes you can make. But we’re flipping the script, bringing in some of the best and brightest in real estate to show that the grass is usually greener where the septic tank is.

Today’s guests, who have all collectively succeeded at failing, are Andrew Cushman, Jamil Damji, and Matt Faircloth. If you’ve been a BiggerPockets listener, these names may sound familiar to you, but if you’re brand new, let us introduce you to these industry giants. Andrew is a multifamily expert and one of the smartest names in the game on screening and underwriting (analyzing) properties. Jamil built the nation’s largest wholesaling operation and is an expert guest on On the Market. And Matt, CEO of the DeRosa Group, literally wrote the book on Raising Private Capital.

But these titans of industry only made mistakes at the beginning of their careers, right? Not quite. They share today a selection of stories that will make you realize that the only successful investors are the ones who can both literally and figuratively weather a strong storm. And if you think it’s all cash flow and cruises for these investors, you couldn’t be more wrong.

David:
This is the Bigger Pockets podcast, show 681.
And this was a big one. Because we put the insurance carrier on notice the day before we got in line before everybody else. If you have a fire at your property, okay, you’re probably the only one making a claim. But if you’re in a situation where a hurricane devastates a hundred miles of coastline, can you just imagine the volume of claims the insurance carriers are processing? We saw properties that sat untouched, unrepaired for two to three years because they didn’t get their claim in fast enough.
What’s going on everyone? I am David Green, your host of the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast here today with a special Halloween episode, brought to you by me and some of my good friends, including today’s co-host Jamil Damji. Jamil, Happy Halloween.

Jamil:
Happy Halloween, man. I’m super happy to be here. And it’s a scary, scary, scary show.

David:
Yeah, it’s a scary and fun show. In today’s show, we are telling real estate horror stories in the spirit of Halloween. We are going to be joined by my friends Andrew Cushman and Matt Faircloth as we all share things, basically deals gone wrong and what we did to try to survive them. Jamil, what were some of your favorite parts of the show?

Jamil:
Oh, man. Just how prepared Andrew is, first and foremost. Secondly, Matt’s hat? Get out of here. And third, you are the best Sergeant Slaughter I have ever, ever seen.

David:
Flattery will get you nowhere, Jamil.

Jamil:
Yeah.

David:
But that’s probably not true. This is my first time ever dressing up for Halloween and it’s here with you guys today. Before we bring in the show content, let’s get to today’s quick tip. And it is, it’s very tempting to want to skimp on insurance and when nothing goes wrong, that can feel like a good idea. But reconsider that after listening to today’s show, you may never want to skip on insurance again. Make sure that you are underwriting thoroughly and preparing for what could go wrong, not assuming everything goes right. All right. Without any further ado, let’s get to the show.

Jamil:
And today we are going to be sharing our multi-family horror stories. Andrew, I hear you’ve got something to share with us.

Andrew:
Yes. I’m Andrew Cushman. I’m addicted to multi-family and I have some horror stories.

David:
Hi, Andrew.

Jamil:
Hi, Andrew.

Andrew:
Hi, guys.

Jamil:
You’re in a safe place, Andrew.

Andrew:
Thank you.

Jamil:
Tell us about it. What happened, Andrew?

Andrew:
Well, this was back in the early part of my career, 2013, so we were two years in. This was Dallas, Fort Worth, Texas, and this was our maybe third or fourth deals. And it was one of those situations where the broker tells you it’s a C property, but that’s because no broker or seller will ever actually tell you that it’s a D. It’s always just a C. It’s like a Dove bar. If you bite into a Dove chocolate bar, it’s pretty sweet. But if you bite into a Dove soap bar, it’s kind of bitter. And we were sold chocolate and we got soap.
And so on the day of closing, I’m sitting there in the office and it’s getting in the afternoon like, “Man, what is that smell?” And it just kept getting worse. And a couple hours before the end of the day, we found out that the sewer pipes underneath the building… It had crawl spaces and this was built in the ’60s, that means plywood floor and then there’s two to three feet of space under there. The sewer line had broke and spilled the entire crawl space with about two feet of sewage water and all the stuff that floats in that. And not only affected the office, it affected every other unit in the building.
That was Friday afternoon of closing. That was a great start. Saturday, the first weekend that we owned it, one little red flag that we missed at the time was that there is a convenience store right next to our property where let’s just say unsavory transactions would occur. And on that Saturday evening a transaction went bad, started a little scuffle, which somehow ended up over our fence and onto our property. And we ended up that night with a quadruple homicide plus four stabbings. I was like, “All right, probably can’t get a whole lot worse from here.”
And then at the other property that we bought, basically at the same time, five o’clock in the afternoon, somebody climbed up on top of the leasing office, busted out the skylight and threw Molotov cocktails down through the skylights into the office in an attempt to burn it down. That was my intro to Dallas, Fort Worth. It was very exciting. Needless to say I figured, “well, it can’t get a whole lot worse from here.” We did eventually sell those properties and get out of them and everything turned out. But what came out of it and what changed is way back in episode 279, we talked about the screening process for properties. Those two nightmares are a big part of where that came from.
The mistake we made is we did go to the market in person to check them out, but one of the things we do now is we do Google Street View, we take the little yellow man and make him walk around the neighborhood and see if he gets robbed. What we missed is that convenience store, because it’s in a low income neighborhood, is going to be a real problem. The median income there was too low to support the rents, and then crime was high. When you take low income, high crime and then unsavory neighbors and put those together, you’ve got a very rough property that has been extremely difficult to turn around because you can turn around a property but you can’t turn around the neighborhood.
Now what we do is we screen. We won’t buy a property that doesn’t sit in a median income area that’s high, and that’s going to vary by market, but for us it’s 40 to 50,000 at least. We only buy in low crime areas. We do a thorough street view and then we send somebody in person if it looks good. And for us, we don’t buy 1960s properties anymore because the physical decay, it can be overwhelming, especially if you haven’t budgeted for it. Yeah, that was some of our early horror stories and it framed what we did for every deal after that. And fortunately we haven’t had anything like that after that. But yeah, it was quite the fun introduction to multi-family.

Jamil:
Wow. I mean, that’s obviously a nightmare, but it gave you a lot of tools that will keep you out of a nightmarish situation in the future. And I think that that’s the whole purpose of waking up in a nightmare, is to not have them over and over and over and over again.

Andrew:
Exactly. I mean, we don’t regret it because it made us that much better for the… I don’t know, whatever, seven or eight years afterwards. And we also did things like hire Mr. Slaughter here to come live at the property and patrol it for every night and every day. I think we had two or three officers on there. We let the police practice with their canine units on the property, try to help tamp things down. Yeah, we learned a lot and it heavily affected our process going forward. And again, fortunately we have not had to deal with that any further since then.

Jamil:
Incredible. I’ve been accused of being an unsavory character myself as Hugh Hefner, and I would have to say that I take pause and a little bit offense to you wanting to stay away from unsavory characters. I think everybody deserves a place to rest their head and wear a bath robe. But thank you so much for sharing that horror story with us, Andrew. It was enlightening to say the least. Matt.

Matt:
Howdie partner.

Jamil:
Howdie to you. I also hear you’ve got quite an interesting horror story that you’d like to share with us. Hopefully, you’ll be able to tie in how this horror story and that hat came to be.

Matt:
The hat, brother, is just sometimes you got to be the sheriff on a property as a property owner and you got to knock heads, whether that’s on a C class property, B class property, whatever it is. There’s going to be things that an owner needs to police and remove, whether that’s improper management, bad books, theft, which is what my story is about my friend, or whatever that may be. Or tenants that are bad actors and making bad choices or having bad deals go down at the convenience store across the street. Almost called it a drug store. No, convenience store. Probably was a drug store as well. But yeah, we are kind of cops and bringing multi-family to the next level.
This story is that. This involves probably my first triple digit multi-family property; it was 198 units. This is the first time that we had bought something anywhere near that large. And it was in Fayetteville, North Carolina and Fayetteville’s all one syllable, Fayetteville. And we had bought it and the property manager that we had hired was new to North Carolina and they had a regional manager, which is property managers are structured with a regional manager that’s over typically a bunch of properties that have site managers that work and that sit at the property and have maintenance teams and that.
But the regional sits over the whole thing and it’s really their job to grow and manage the existing portfolio. Regional was really solid and she put a great site team in place and a week after we closed, she quits. And so the property management company had a change of heart and decided, “Well she quit. We don’t really want to hire a new person right now, so we’re going to try and manage this property in Fayetteville, North Carolina from Atlanta.” And so they tried to manage it way remote. And so what that equated to was the site team was really left to run the property by themselves. And so you got somebody that’s hours and hours away that’s responsible for keeping their eyes on the property.
And when the cat’s away, the mice will play, my friend. And that’s just how it goes. Nobody with this hat was watching the property aside from us. What happened, very quickly, two things. We had identified to the property manager, to the site team that “Hey, we want to renovate all these apartments because they’re all very circa 1970 with lovely wood paneling on the walls and 1970s stock kitchens and whatnot. And we knew that the tenants were paying $500, $600 a month in rent for ones and two bedrooms, whereas the market was 800 $900 a month. And we were going to make major investments in the property to bring those units up to new condition.
The site manager took it upon themself to write a letter to all 198 tenants, telling them, “Hey, new manager is going to make some major investments in this site. And just so you know, when your lease renews, you’re going to go from 500 to $800, just be on notice.” They put that on every tenant’s door. We went from 80%, we went from 80% occupancy to 30% occupancy in two months after that notice was posted. Again, without a little bit of tact and that kind of thing, and then when the cats away, the mice will play. That was obvious nightmare number one is just occupancy falls way off and that. Fast forward, we ended up having to remove that property manager, not just because of that, because a lot of egregious issues that we had had.
And the second issue, horror story that came up had to do with yet again, not having a regional sitting over this property. The maintenance technician was there and I still remember his name, still remember his face. Every time I came on site, man, he’d be outside picking up trash with this little long stick with the claw on the end of it that they use and with a little bucket. And he’d plant new flowers. I was told by other site team members that a couple days before I would come down, he would plant some new plants just to show off a little bit, the property and all. He [inaudible 00:12:12] call me sir. Yes sir, no sir, the whole time. And very respectful, got my cell phone number, would call me every here and again to tell me how things were going. And yes sir, no sir, the whole time.
And he had a bunch of vendors lined up to do work on the property and people that he knew from the neighborhood were renovating apartments and stuff like that. And he was the best and he was my best friend and I thought that he was the one that was going to bring that property around. And I defended him when other people started to tell me, “Hey, that guy’s not doing his job sometimes and this and that.” “No, you know what? He’s great. And not just because he calls me sir, he’s amazing and I love the way he shows up.”
We terminated the PM company and my business partner, Justin, goes to the site a week later and a guy in a beat up pickup truck… Any real estate investor knows what the truck of a local scrapper looks like. The guy who’s there, whose job is to collect scrap metal and take it to the scrap yard and they get dollars per pound for it. Local scrapper truck pulls up with a truck full of metal that he’s found around the neighborhood and he says, “Hey man, you got any appliances to sell me today?” And I’m like, “What are you talking about appliances?” And my partner Justin was like, “Well no, we don’t sell you guys appliances.” And he says, “Well no, the guy that works here, the maintenance tech, he’s been selling me appliances that you guys pull out of these turned apartments. He’s been selling them to me for $300 for a full set of appliances.” And I’m like, “What?” “Oh yeah, yeah.”
And so in a business, when you’re in multi-family when you’re turning apartments, the appliances that you pull out of one apartment when you renovate and upgrade, those appliances could be used for parts and spares and maybe a tenant loses their refrigerator where you can give him the refrigerator you just pulled out of the apartment after it’s been cleaned and use it until it’s soon enough to buy a new one. This guy was selling all of our appliances to the guy in the beat up pickup truck.
Then it turns out, did a little bit of digging, that there was a homeless guy living on site. And we approached him and we said, “You’re living in one of these apartments?” And it was furnished. He had taken furniture he had found in the neighborhood and had a furnished apartment that he was living in, with a key. Guy had a key. And we were like, “How did this happen? How are you living here?” “Oh, the maintenance guy has been renting me an apartment. I just pay him in cash, $400 a month in cash, then he’s been letting me live here.” And I was like, “Where are you getting the money from?” “Oh, well, I do work orders for him and some of the other guys and I do some odd jobs around the site and they pay me and I just pretty much give the money back to him in rent.” This maintenance tech was selling used appliances to a local scrapper guy and had a homeless guy live in one of our apartments who was also doing his work orders.
And the third, again, it keeps going. The third time, the thing that came up, on that same site visit, the guys that were turning the apartment… When you’ve got a multi-family property like this, you tend to find a local contractor, a couple guys in a truck or a bigger outfit or whatever to go and replace cabinets and clean out the apartments and put in new flooring and you end up spending somewhere between four to 7,000 a unit to turn these apartments around.
Well they said to us, “Well, okay, who are we paying our commission to?” And we said, “What do you mean, your commission?” And they said, “Well, every time we turn an apartment we had to give a $500 commission to the maintenance technician as his fee for him referring us to this job. Do we have to give that to you guys now?” And we’re like, “No, no, no, no.” There was more, but it was just one of these lessons, Jamil, that you’ve got to have oversight and you can’t just trust a yes sir, no sir kind of person who’s going to tell you what you want to hear. And by the way, the fact that he was planting flowers two days before I came should have been a sign. You should be planting flowers period, not just when the owner’s going to come to town to put your best foot forward when the owner’s in town to make yourself look good.
Just bottom line is oversight, oversight, oversight. People watching, watching staff. Because again, can’t say it enough, you need people wearing this hat here and when the cats away, the mice certainly do play.

Andrew:
Sounds like you had yourself quite the entrepreneur there.

Matt:
He did well.

David:
I would think so, yeah.

Matt:
Yeah. You can’t slight him for trying and that, but he certainly did try very hard. But unfortunately he was an entrepreneur with our money in that. I’m glad to have gotten him on down the road to whatever his next venture was.

Andrew:
You moved him into the business development role, right?

Matt:
We hired him. Yeah. Let me use your superpowers for good.

Jamil:
Ever had a moment like that, David, where the cat was away and a mouse came out to play.

David:
First off, let’s get something clear right now. This is my podcast and I still run it and you’re welcome in my ring. But Matt Faircloth, the next time you show up for a Halloween episode dressed in your three year old’s cowboy hat, think that that kind of effort is going to fly here. You got another think coming? Okay, brother? Now I’m going to let it slide because that was a really good story. You bring me some good content, but I expect more and I’m going to see more in the future.

Matt:
I promised to get a full sized cowboy hat next time. Well said.

Jamil:
Speaking of the future? Why don’t you tell us about your multi-family horror story, David, because I’m sure with all the experience you have in the business, there’s got to be some spooky things that have happened.

David:
You asked me a question before I went onto that ridiculous tirade right there. What was it about?

Jamil:
I asked you if you had ever had an opportunity to see the mice come out to play when the cat went away?

David:
That happens more I’d say with employees in my businesses than it has with any actual investment property. I haven’t had a situation like that yet, but oh my goodness, have I had some horror stories. By the way, I think Andrew might have one that we’re invested together on one of those properties, the hurricane one, so he’ll probably get into that. But I just had a big 1031 that I didn’t really want to do. Long story short, somebody had stolen title to my properties. We’re a bit of a target, we’re in a platform like this, so I had to sell them very quickly, which forced me into a 1031 that I didn’t want to be in. And then I learned in the middle of the 1031, there’s a rule that no one had told me the entire time.
And that is when you sell your property, you have 45 days to identify your next properties and 180 days to close. We all know that. No one told me that you can only identify twice as much real estate as you sold. If you sold $5 million of real estate, you are only allowed to identify 10 million, which is the ones that you can pick from. Now, normally that is not an issue because most people don’t have that much capital to deploy. In my case, my portfolio was almost free and clear. I sold about $4 million worth of real estate and I could only identify $8 million worth of real estate. However, I had to reinvest almost $4 million, which is very difficult to do if you can only identify 8 million. What makes it worse? I did not know that this was a problem until day 44 of my 45 day identification period, which created a very interesting 24 hour period where I had to identify properties and basically if I identified anything that I didn’t have in contract, it wasn’t going to close.
It was too risky to put a house on there that I didn’t know I could put in contract. I had to go out and put properties in contract in one day that then I had to close. There’s no way, I couldn’t not close on these properties. A lot of your inspection strategies, they’re not going to work in that scenario. First story, that set me up for some of these horror stories that are going to come, as if that wasn’t a horror story enough.
During this period of time, one of these properties, we had a survey conducted and it turned out that there was a 30 foot encroachment of the neighbor’s lot onto my property. Basically, 30 feet of the property I’m trying to buy, the survey reported was hanging over the neighbor’s lot, meaning if they wanted they could just come take a chainsaw and cut 30 feet off of my house. Now, it’s not that uncommon to have some form of an encroachment. Boundary lines don’t always get drawn super clear. It’s very odd that you have 30 feet of a house. It’s usually like a gutter hanging over or something like the fence didn’t get put in the right place.
This was very significant. And this was a house, it was more than a million dollar house, it was like 1.2 million and it appraised at 1.35 million, so I was excited about buying it. It was coming with a lot. This is what’s funny is I bought this property and I got the lot next to it. And even though they had all that space, they still chose to build their house as close to this other lot as they possibly could get. I’m in this position now where if I don’t close on this thing, my whole 1031’s going to blow up. We had to tell them that we were in a 1031 to get them to go into contract in one day. So the seller was actually a pilot. He’s flying his plane and we’re desperately trying to find houses that we could put into contract.
What we did was we had his agent look… The seller’s wife looked up who the flight attendants were on the flight, sent them a text message via the plane’s wifi. They go knock on the cockpit door and they’re like, “Hey, I got to read you the terms of this deal to know if you want to put in a contract.” And he’s like, “I’m flying a plane, I don’t want to deal with this, I’ll deal with it later.” And they’re like, “No, no, no. We’ve got four hours and you’re not going to land for three and a half. You have to make the decision right now.”
He already wasn’t super happy with how this whole thing went down and I don’t think he got the price he wanted. He got the price he was willing to get. He didn’t know about the foreclosure, but basically the seller’s like, “I’m not fixing it. You can just go to HE double hockey sticks here.” And I’m like, “I don’t want him to know that I have to close, but I also don’t want to buy a property that’s 30 feet hanging over the neighbor’s lot.” I’m in a bit of a horror story here. We went back and forth for probably three weeks on this. I tried to buy the portion of the lot that my house was hanging over into from the other guy. He didn’t want to do it. I tried to make the seller buy it. He didn’t want to pay any extra money.
Long story short, it turned out that it was just the surveyor was an idiot. Didn’t know how to do their job, it wasn’t a problem. We had a second survey order that showed there was nothing here, so there was this three weeks of sphincter tightening that did not have to happen. I suppose that muscle doesn’t get worked out very much. It definitely got worked out during that period of time. That horror story ended up being just a haunted house that didn’t have real ghosts.
But during that same 1031, I did run into a cabin that I bought in the Smoky Mountains that came with a pool. Now, pools out there tend to be inside of a structure. They’re not just built out in the open because they would freeze during the wintertime. The pool was awesome and it would almost double how much I could rent this cabin out for. It’s very hard to find those. They rent for a lot more. It’s a really big pool in a huge structure. The problem is the pool is leaking. The pool is being redone. When I put it in contract, I wrote into the contract I, the pool has to be evaluated by a licensed professional to the buyer’s satisfaction. And if I don’t like it, I can back out, get my earnest money back.
However, this 1031 disaster could stop me from being able to back out of the deal. Now I’m locked into it and I don’t want the seller to know that I’m locked into it. I want them to fix the pool. And the work that was done, basically, they plastered it. It was still leaking afterwards, so you don’t know how bad the problem is. I don’t know a ton about pools and no one out there could really give me the answer of, “Is this an issue where we’re just going to fix some leaks and plaster, or is this the plumbing itself is leaking and it’s not going to hold water?”
I’d already negotiated about $25,000 in closing cost credits when I put it under contract. The seller wanted an early close. I wanted a delayed closing. He was threatening to just basically not close at all if I went past the close of escrow. That forced me, like I can’t bluff anymore if he threatens to not do it. I was able to negotiate an additional $30,000 credit in order to fix that pool from the seller, not knowing how bad it was going to be. It was kind of like, well I don’t know if that’s enough, but it’s better than losing the entire 1031 here, so I went forward with it and we get done, we go fill up the pool, it’s leaking again. We send out another pool specialist, they say, I think you need to redo the whole pool.
It’s probably going to be like 55 to $65,000 I would guess, just because it’s hard to get people out there. I’m kind of working with traveling contractors now to go out there and rebuild an entire pool, which technically I got most of the closing costs put towards the pool. It just made the deal not quite as good because I was intending on using those for furnishing the property. It was a new construction cabin even though the pool had been built by some terrible builder. That was a bit of a horror story that we’re still trying to work out.
There’s another cabin that I have under contract right now. Funny story, Did you guys know there was a Nashville, Indiana?

Jamil:
No.

Andrew:
No.

Matt:
No.

David:
Freaking south man. They’ve got the same names for cities in all kinds of different states. I didn’t know that either. What I thought I was doing was going under contract on a cabin with an appraisal of 1.365 in Nashville, Tennessee, and I’m getting it for 1,000,050, so I feel really good about this. And then [inaudible 00:25:36]

Jamil:
There’s a book you should read, Long Distance Real Estate Investing.

David:
Yeah, that’s exactly right.

Matt:
I want David Green money where I can just buy houses wherever they are and whenever they are, just because I don’t want to pay taxes.

David:
I hadn’t closed on it yet, but I’d realize about two weeks in, “Oh, this is not Nashville, TN. This is Nashville, IN.” That T and the I is a very big difference in [inaudible 00:25:57]

Matt:
One more dash across that I.

Andrew:
Talk about cross your T’s and dot your I’s.

David:
Very nice there, thank you. The good news is the fundamentals of the deal don’t change. It’s underwritten with the same information the seller has. Previous guests that are booking. We have a very good understanding. Right now it’s bringing in about $160,000 a year in revenue. There’s ways that we can bring that up higher. But I just was shocked like, “Oh, this is not even in the same state that I thought I was buying this property, but it was still almost $300,000 of equity. I’m going to move forward with it.” Well it turns out it’s in a very rural area.
Now, we’re having a hard time finding a lender that wants to lend on it because they haven’t heard of Nashville, Indiana either. It’s in a very remote location. It is making good revenue, but that still makes a lender nervous. And it’s also on six acres of property, which is another thing that lenders don’t like. They like the actual improvements to have more value than the land. Luckily the seller has extended escrow like three times on this because we have to go find different lenders and then we have to order a new appraisal. That hasn’t turned into a horror story yet, but it was very, very close to one when I realized I was buying a house in a completely different state than when I had looked at the contract and looked at the numbers and said, “Sounds good. Sign me up.” Didn’t notice that it was in Indiana and not Tennessee.
I barely averted a horror story in Jacksonville. I had a property that was leaking sewage similar to what Andrew was saying from underneath the house. And the property manager came and said, “Hey, it’s going to be about $26,000 to fix this.” And I’m like, “The whole house is only worth like 110,” it might be worth it to just let the house go. “What on earth are you talking about? $26,000.” “We’ve sent three plumbers. This was the cheapest bid we could find.” And I was like, “Well, what’s going to cost that much money?” Of course, crickets, they can’t ever tell you what the person’s doing, they’re just relaying this information.
The plumbers were saying, we basically got to rip apart the entire foundation of your home to try to figure out where the leak is coming. I sent a couple other plumbers out that I made a phone call and I found one that said, “Oh no, I can tell you it’s coming from either this bathtub or that one. If it’s that one, I don’t even need to dig into the foundation. If it’s the other one, I’m just going to cut right down through the bathroom, figure out where it is, I can fix it.” And then long story short, that was a $4,500 problem, not a $26,000 problem.
One of the things you got to learn is when you get the first piece of information, don’t freak out. It’s usually coming from someone who’s not very interested in saving you money. They’re interested in saving themselves time, which is frequently the case with property managers. And then the last example I have came from a house that I closed on in the Smoky Mountains. This is before the market shifted. It was listed at 1.6, I think that we ended up getting it for 1.64. But with a $65,000 closing cost credit. Very, very big number, which we were basically going to have set up where the seller, rather than running the money through escrow, was going to put it towards a contractor that was going to go and make the repairs that needed to be made on the house. And I gave it up to them. You could make the repairs before we close or you could do it this way and you could make it after. I believe that was the details.
Well, they ended up, once they realized the deal’s going to close and we had waved our financing contingency, they just turned off the air conditioning to the entire cabin. And this was a cabin with a pool inside of it where there’s a lot of mildew, so you can imagine in a couple days, it’s amazing how fast that mold spreads. It’s like a peach redition there. Super humid, middle of summer. The entire pool room is mold everywhere. Basically, the agent was like, “Well there’s nothing you can do, you got to close.” I was like, “No, no, no, no, no.” “There’s nothing you could do. You’ve got to close on this.” They still have to deliver the property in the condition that it was in when we put it into contract, even without a contingency, that’s part of the contract.
The sellers didn’t want to budge. They were like, “Nope, you have to buy.” We ended up at a standoff and I was like, “Well, good luck trying to keep our earnest money with this and you’re going to be taking back a cabin with a ton of mold in it. You’re not going to be able to sell it for a couple months as you try to get that fixed.” We negotiated an extra maybe 10 or $15,000 of credits to get the mold closed. We closed and then we had to go in there as soon as it was closed and fix all the mold, which actually worked out well because we also needed time to get furniture ordered and get some tweaks made so the property could be ready to be rented out to other tenants and get pictures taken.
We didn’t actually lose any time of having that house on the market because we just fixed the mold at the same time we were doing other things. But those are all situations that could have easily blown up a deal and cost a ton of money and just made someone not want to invest in real estate at all.

Andrew:
Sergeant sir, may I make two comments?

David:
I’ll allow it.

Andrew:
All right, two things. Number one, I love all these stories because we all get on this podcast and we talk about these deals and these successes and it sounds so easy. And the reality is, that even someone like you who’s been doing this for a long time, tons of deals, tons of knowledge, still has challenges and real world problems. And so everyone listening, you go out and do this, expect problems. And if you get problems, it doesn’t mean you’re necessarily doing it wrong or you’re not going to succeed. We’re all still having problems even today.
The second thing is, I love the story of you hunting down the flight attendants and getting them to message the pilot. One of the things you ask at the end of most podcasts is what is the one thing that separates successful investors from those? That right there, the relentless persistence and creativity. Who would’ve thought to, “Well, let’s see, I can figure out who the flight attendants are, get through the plane’s wifi, message them and have them interrupt the pilot.” One out of a hundred people would do that. But that’s what separates us. I love those stories you told.

David:
I appreciate that. Everyone in your world will typically tell you it can’t be done. It’s not hard to get a lawyer, a CPA, an agent, and anyone like, “Oh we can’t do it. He’s flying right now.” Rather than asking the question, “Well how could we do it? How could this work?” And so I appreciate what you’re saying there, Andrew, but I think if we just ask different questions, how could this happen? A lot of the time the answer isn’t that wild.

Andrew:
That’s true.

Matt:
Before you get there, I wanted to compliment you on something because I’ve seen a lot of newer real estate investors think that no matter what happens, the seller’s in control and they’re going to tell me, “Oh you got to close and oh, too bad with the mold. Yours.” There’s like this three pages deep in the contract that says that the buyer agrees to take the property as is. But I think that it took some strength to come forward and say, “No realtor, I’m not going to close. They have to give me a credit,” because you underscored something that most contracts say and that the seller has to deliver the property pretty much in the condition that it was when I saw it.
If the conditions changed, if I’m buying a house and a storm comes through and a tree splits that house down the middle, guess what? That’s not the same house that I looked at. And that mold story should get underscored to anybody listening that you are in control. You don’t have to close. You do have the right to raise a flag and say, this is not the condition that I was aware of and I want some consideration or something because conditions have changed.

David:
Well thank you, Cowboy.

Jamil:
I experienced something very similar to that David, when I was trying to sell the Playboy mansion and they did an inspection of the grotto. A lot of things happened at the grotto.

David:
You could imagine what would show up in that inspection. How did the conditions change?

Jamil:
That was wild David. Incredible, incredible story. But it absolutely shows just how seasoned of an investor you are and the fact like we’ve heard from Andrew and Matt that you can remain in control and with the right mind and the right knowledge, you can absolutely take control of the deal and put yourself in a better situation. Thank you for sharing that with us. I think we all became a little bit smarter and wiser for it.

David:
Well, before I throw it to you, Jamil, I think Andrew also made a point that’s worth mentioning. When you listen to a podcast, there’s this concept called survivor bias, which means you typically only hear the stories of the people that survived and did well. We hear about Elon Musk, we hear about Bill Gates, we hear about their empires. We don’t hear about the hundred of thousands of entrepreneurs that failed because no one wants to interview them on a podcast. And if they did, nobody would listen to it. We’re like, “What did you do that made you suck? I want to be like you.” It’s always the opposite.
What happens is you only hear the people sharing their best stories because not only are they the ones on the podcast, but they don’t want to come and show you their warts. They want to put the filter on their portfolio that makes it look as good as possible. And we were kind of joking around earlier that you ask an investor how many properties they have and they tell you how many doors they have. They’re like, “Well technically it’s got a garage door, a side door, a screen door, a bathroom door, a front door. Yeah, I got 12 doors.” Maybe they have one house. That is just how investors, especially when they’re at meetups and they feel the pressure to look cool, they want to talk.
And it creates this air that mistakes never happen. Nothing goes wrong. People don’t lose money. And that the baseline expectation is that and if you get anything less than the baseline, you’re not good at this and you should feel bad and you shouldn’t invest. But if you actually sat and watched some of your heroes at work, you would find that it’s complete chaos. In fact, I’ll even tell you this, in the military, it’s not much different.
I had this impression of the military my whole life that it was like this disciplined, orderly place because you always hear about discipline, discipline, discipline. And then I met friends that were in the military and they said, “No, it’s complete chaos. It’s madness, it’s logistical nightmares. It’s frantically trying to figure out why this thing got delivered to the wrong place and how we’re going to get these people this thing. And there isn’t enough shoes of this size for this area,’ and the reason that they value discipline so much is it’s so necessary in the chaos.
And then I started to notice as it became more successful and I started to meet other successful people, man, the pretty buttoned up version that you see on Instagram of any of these guys walking through their flip is never what their business looks like. They have employees doing dumb things. They have maintenance people running side hustles off of their own properties and selling their appliances. They don’t even know what’s happening in their CRM. They probably don’t know what’s happening on their tax bill. It’s absolute madness for every single successful person that you see, they just don’t share that. Nobody wants to get up there and say, I don’t know what my numbers are, I just know that I’m making money because I still have capital in the bank.
That’s a much more realistic picture of what this is than this super tight, perfect edited video that you get where someone says, “Here’s how you analyze a deal.” As everyone knows, you cannot control for everything that goes wrong in a deal. I’m going to wrap this up by just saying, if you’re making success, if you’re staying somewhat profitable, if you’re acquiring properties, you’re probably doing better than 90% of the people that are out there. It’s not perfection that you’re striving for, and don’t let that become your baseline.

Matt:
David, can I add to that? Because I just want to, first of all, high five you and I think it’s brilliant and I think that what really creates success is trying again after failure. Like the property I talked about in Fayetteville that got down to 30% occupancy. We brought in a new manager, we refinanced the property, we renovated it, we got it up to 95% occupancy. Had you accepted, “Oh, moldy pool room, guess I got to just take it. No, I’m going to put my boxing gloves on and fight and stay in the ring. I’m not going to lay down.” And I think that that’s really what failure is. Quitting at a setback.
The real success is trying again at a setback, because it’s funny, I just listened to Ray Kroc’s personal story called Grinding It Out. Two of my gut buddies in GoBundance referred it to me, so I just listened to it. Ray failed a ton of times, but he tried again. He grinded it out and he tried again after failure. And I think that that’s what really underscores success as a real estate investor as well. As you said, you’re going to have stuff stolen, you’re going to have a broker try and push it to close on a deal where you’re getting duped on or something like that. It’s really being willing to fight again and try again and then that’s really what defines success. Not no failures, certainly not.

David:
That’s a great point. Yeah. Jamil, I want to ask you, you’re sitting there in a bathrobe, you’re obviously in a posh hotel, you’re looking fantastic. It would appear that everything in your world is working out about as perfect as it could be. I mean, your beard is symmetrically perfection. I can’t imagine that you could have any horror stories. Am I wrong?

Jamil:
You are absolutely wrong. In fact, you spoke of warts and I’ve got a wart juicier than the end of any witches nose that we would see on Halloween.

Andrew:
I hoped I would never hear the words wart and juicy used in the same sentence again.

Jamil:
Well, let’s get into it. Let’s get into it. As you all know, I’m on a Bigger Pockets podcast called On the Market and had an opportunity to dive into a deal that I was in escrow in Phoenix, Arizona. And this is where I’m going to actually blame my co-hosts for helping me push me along and getting into this deal. Because for those of you that don’t know, I’m a wholesaler. I primarily wholesale property. Very rarely do I hold. And here was an opportunity. And the reason why I even got into the opportunity is I had a massive tax bill last year and I keep being told from my fellow real estate investors and every single one of my co-hosts on the On The Market podcast to buy houses, buy property, so I can depreciate it and lower my tax bill. And here I find this opportunity in Phoenix, Arizona.
It’s a 53 unit off market property in a class neighborhood. It’s a B class building, but it’s an A class neighborhood. In fact, it’s around the corner from my house, so walking distance. I can go there, I could hang out, if I ever got in trouble at home, I could stay in one of the units. That would be my doghouse. I’m looking at this opportunity because a) it would provide me a great depreciation situation. I would write off a lot of income. I was able to get into the deal at 12 and a half million dollars. Now that deal, although it seems like,” Hey Jamal, that sounds a little bit pricey at 12 and a half million dollars for 53 units,” right two days after we had gotten under contract, I had a potential wholesale buyer. I had a multi-family buyer who wanted me to sell my contract to them at $15 million.
That would’ve been an immediate two and a half million dollar wholesale fee. Now, as a wholesaler, to me that would’ve just been an incredible situation. I would’ve been able to get their earnest deposit to replace my earnest deposit. I could have assigned the contract over and possibly have made two and a half million dollars. I bring this situation to my brothers and sister on the On The Market podcast and I say, “What should I do? Should I buy this property or should I wholesale the property and make a quick fee?”
Now I was convinced, thoroughly convinced that Jamil, it’s really important that you hold, it’s really important that you invest for cash flow and it’s really important that you keep more of your money instead of just generating cash or your wholesale business and giving it all to the IRS. And so I make the decision that we are going to move forward with purchasing the property. Now, to kind of set the stage for you guys where this is in my career, this is just recent. This is two months ago. We get into contract on the property. Well, a few months ago we get into contract on the property in April, and market is really hot right now. We’re not seeing really anything coming around.
There’s talk of potential rate hikes, but we’re still not there yet. And my business partner, who was very, very experienced in the world of multi-family, a multi-family broker herself, had assured me that we would have lenders just throwing us money for this deal. And we had a financing contingency. Our earnest deposit on the property was $475,000. Immediately, guys, I just want to explain to you, I’m getting nervous because I don’t… Even though I do a lot of transactions, typically in my wholesale business, I can do anywhere between 50 to 80 transactions a month, so I’m really not afraid of buying and selling property. But I’m nervous to put out all of this money in earnest deposits.
And as we’re checking the boxes through our escrow time, the financing contingency date is coming around. And I’m nervous because we don’t have a loan quote. We don’t have any commitments from lenders yet. And I asked Sophia, my business partner in the deal, if she is confident that we are going to line up lending. And she was so confident that the lenders who had all given her commitments were going to come through. In fact, her answer was “Jamil, it’s not how much, it’s how little we’re going to have to put down. We have lenders right now who want this building, they want to be the lenders on this loan. I can almost guarantee that we’ll be able to get this thing done at 90% leverage.”
And I imagine that, a building 53 units and 90% leverage… As somebody that’s not primarily investing in multi-family real estate, this just seems like an amazing opportunity. And I’m with someone who I trust, who I will absolutely… Who I believed would have the contacts and the relationships in the industry that would actually come through. And so there we go. We blow through our financing contingency and we deposit another couple of hundred thousand dollars into the file. And now we are in $475,000 hard in earnest money.
And the rate hikes start and they happen fast. And it was so dramatic how quiet the lenders became because as I’m reading the headlines and as I’m watching the retail housing market just come to a grinding halt, I get very nervous about whether or not we’re actually going to have a lender that’s going to come and make this deal happen for us. And I’m calling Sophia daily. I’m asking, “Do we have anything? Has anybody given us a firm quote? And as the days progress, her responses become less and less assured. In fact, we get to a point where she made a phone call to me and she was in tears.
She said, “I’ve been in the business for near a decade and I’ve done hundreds of deals and I’ve never had my lending partners ghost me before.” And we are talking about a multi-family horror story here and it’s a Halloween episode, guys, but this isn’t the kind of ghost that you want. This is the kind of ghosting that when you got near a half a million dollars up for grabs it’s the scary kind of ghost. And I feel terrible. I feel terrible about the situation as a whole. Because for me, the first thing I had said to myself before I got into this deal was, “Jamil, you are so talented at what you do,” and this is me talking to myself in the third person so I apologize if I’m offending anybody with that.
“But you know what? I’m really talented at finding deals. I’m really talented at wholesaling and I always tell myself, don’t get out of your lane. Stay in your lane, fool. You’re good at what you’re good at. You understand what you understand. And now you’re playing in this world that I had not ventured into before and I truly am worried. What am I going to do?” As the days get closer and closer to our close of escrow, it’s obvious that we are not going to find a lender. In fact, all of the loan quotes that we were getting back had the building valued at $8 million. Now imagine that. You get into escrow on a property and it’s 12 and a half million. You’re able to find a buyer immediately for a two and a half million dollar lift.
So I would go so far as to say that the value of the building was 15 million. If I could find a buyer two days after going under contract for an additional two and a half million dollars, I’d say the value of the building was maybe even more than 15 million, considering how fast that buyer would come to the table. But the fact that I allowed myself to get bullied into moving forward with this deal and purchasing this deal instead of just wholesaling it like I should’ve, because I would’ve at least gotten that earnest deposit from the buyer. At the end of the day what ended up happening was we had to walk. We had to walk away from the deal. We did not close. There was no way that we could finance the property at the purchase price. The lenders did not like the deal.
We tried to go back to the sellers and renegotiate. We explained to them that everything had changed, that the world had been flipped upside down. And this building was no longer worth the 12 and a half million that we were in contract at, not even close. And they were not willing to negotiate with us. They had us pinned up against the wall and they walked with our $475,000. And that was a really tough lesson for me at this level. Now, I’ve been in real estate since 2002. I’ve been doing this for 20 years. And the first time that I ever went broke was when I got out of my lane in 2007 and I started investing in condo conversions.
And so this whole game of wanting to get involved in something that’s outside of your expertise, and again, that was the first time I was in multi-family was back. This is the second time I tried to get involved in a deal and I got burned. And it was really tough. It was a really tough pill to swallow, especially because I consider myself an expert. I consider myself somebody who should have known better and I didn’t.

David:
Well, that is a situation where the market shifted so drastically and so quickly. I guess Andrew and Matt could probably support this if I’m right or not, but I imagine you had cap rate expansion at the same time as interest rates rising, at the same time that lenders are pulling back and saying, “Oh, we don’t know what’s going on in the market so now we don’t want to lend out all of our capital.” And it went from all systems go full steam ahead to slamming on the brakes at the same time. And when you had all three of those things happen, you get put in a situation where it looks like you made a mistake, but at the time you put the deal under the contract, there was no way of knowing that was coming.
And I think we get used to real estate just, well this is the way it works. This is just what we do. Do you know what’s in the contract as an agent? No, but I don’t need to, because it always just goes fine. I don’t have to understand the mold situation like Matt brought up. We had a similar situation at the one brokerage where we had probably 50 clients that had rate locks and rates went up so fast so quickly from what the Fed did that the lenders literally said, “We are not going to honor the rate locks. We will not lend at that. We’re just not giving the money.” And we had to go call over 50 people and say, “Yes, your rate was locked. We didn’t realize that this could happen but lenders are just saying whether they have a legal right to or not, we’re just not doing it. We’re not funding. If you want the money, it has to be at this.”
“Yeah, we told you 15% down and we changed our mind. We don’t want to lend our money at 15% down. Now it’s 25% down.” And we’re talking about people that were in the high fours to mid fives that were bumped up to mid sevens. And this is at the last couple days for some of them before they closed. You look like a total butt head having to tell somebody that. But it just happens. The market shifted so radically fast. And we’ve been talking about how hot the market gets, but it could cool off just as fast. And we’re used to seeing this type of thing with cryptos and securities and equities and now it’s happening in the real estate space and it’s absolutely wild.
That’s a horrible story. Jamil. I remember when you reached out to me, I was like, “Oh, I bet he just needs a little bit of capital. We’ll bridge the gap,” and then you explain it more. And I was like, “Oh God, that’s true. It went from 15 million to 8 million.” There isn’t a thing that you could do on this one.

Andrew:
That’s one thing that I think a lot of people miss or underestimate is how quickly the capital markets can shift.

David:
Yes.

Andrew:
You go back to 2007, you could hear the collective sphincters of lenders just tighten and it just shut off. There was no nothing-

David:
In synchronicity throughout the entire country.

Andrew:
And then the domino effect goes from there. That’s probably one of the most important things to watch.

David:
We saw that in COVID. Remember that when there was [inaudible 00:51:00] in place and they were like, “Nope, no loans going out at all. Fannie’s not lending. Freddy’s not lending. Doesn’t matter where you are in your escrow.” Nothing you can do.

Matt:
Hey Jamil, I appreciate your vulnerability because, and David talked about this before about how people… There’s a real estate investor persona on social media that we’re all superheroes and we’re either closing deals, going on vacation or going to a Mastermind, one of those three. And because that’s all real estate investors do according to social media. That’s it. We don’t ever deal with anything else, any problems or whatever, we’re just hanging out with people or closing deals. That’s it. And I appreciate your vulnerability because it is those things that are listed are maybe 3% of real estate investing. The 97% is grinding it out and dealing with deals and dealing with curve balls and that, and it takes courage to put out the other 97% of real estate investing that sometimes you lose, sometimes you end up having the wins that you can’t control change. Kudos to you on getting real man.
If you had that deal over again, aside from not doing the deal, what would you do different? If you don’t mind just throwing that out there.

Jamil:
Well, first things first, I should have put together the wholesale situation because truth be told, if I had put together the wholesale deal, which is what I am good at doing anyways, I would’ve had the buyers earnest money locked in. The buyer that was going to take the property from me in the first place. They were all cash, so they wouldn’t have even been subject to this situation with the lending. It would have been the perfect scenario.
Now, on the other side of that, I wouldn’t feel good about this person buying this property from me at an inflated price anyway, so there’s that other side of the coin. I’m not interested in finding a bigger fool. I don’t believe in that. I believe that everything that we do finds a way back to us. And again, my intentions weren’t bad in originally wholesaling the deal. My intentions are always good when I wholesale. I want to provide value to my buyer, I want to provide value to my seller, and I love being in the middle, and I love being able to create value for myself by connecting the dots.
First things first, Matt, what I would’ve done is I would have followed my instinct to always take the bird in the hand. That’s the man that I was built to be, and I should always eat my birds when they’re in my hands.

Andrew:
Yes, I guess that is the next step. That’s why you have the bird in your hand.

Jamil:
Right.

David:
Yeah. Why not eat it. Even if it’s crow.

Jamil:
Even if it’s crow.

Matt:
I love it.

Jamil:
I should have-

Andrew:
Oh man, good job, David.

Jamil:
I should have just done the thing that I know how to do.

David:
You need to make a YouTube video about it. Have a bird in your hand as the thumbnail for the video and tell this story. Yeah. However, we’re also resulting. You guys know the poker term where we look back and we say it didn’t work out. We’re like, I should done something different. If you’d to close on that deal and saved all of your money and paid no income taxes for the year, this would be an example of you telling everybody else, “Hey, this is the way you got to do it. I wholesale. Instead, I went into this thing. I like Matt’s question because maybe on the next deal you do the same thing, but you figure out a way to protect the earnest money deposit.

Jamil:
No, you’re absolutely right, David, and Matt, the thing that we actually made an error on with the contract is in that we put this thing under contract when everything had gone bananas. Sellers were dictating terms and it was a very oppressive contract. But when I spoke to Sophia, my business partner in the deal, and I asked, “Is this normal? Is this level of aggressiveness part of the way that people are transacting in multi-family right now?” Because for me, even though the market had gone crazy, when I’m buying distress property, I still have an out. I still have an inspection period. I still have a way to negotiate a change in condition and accordingly, that just wasn’t available in the multi-family space at that time.
I think it’s really important to understand this and for the greater Bigger Pockets audience that’s listening in, guys take notes to this. When things start to get super heated, when the market just gets so crazy that people are throwing away due diligence, that people are putting caution to the wind. When you are starting to see these conditions present themselves, understand that they can’t last long, and that just might be the time when you sit something out. Matt, I would’ve written a different contract. I wouldn’t have gone into that deal where the earnest deposits were so aggressive, I wouldn’t have gone into the deal where the timelines were as tight as they were. I felt nervous about it right out the gate.
I took another individual’s word. This is another thing, the reason I’m a real estate entrepreneur is because I don’t like putting my destiny into the hands of other people. But when I’m ready to write a check for $450,000 and somebody else is telling me that, “Don’t worry about it. We got the lending covered.” I mean, what’s wrong with me? Really though? Where was my discernment at that time? And so there’s a lot of lessons here and it’s a lot about me. I really think that I allowed the heat of the market. I allowed greed, because I thought I had an incredible deal and the greedy goblin inside of me let me make decisions that were outside of the benefit of my family. And I made a huge error. And you know what? You’re right. I had to be vulnerable and I’m sharing this so that people can understand what it looks like when you’re making a wrong turn.

Matt:
Oh, thanks again for your vulnerability, man. I feel that. What I got is that I think it’s only time to get great in business at one or two things. And dabbling at $12 million is one of those things where it’s like, man, this could go great. It might not. If I want to buy a fixer upper or a wholesale or an Airbnb in a market that your wholesale business is playing in, I’m calling you. Somebody that’s closing 80 wholesales a month, dude? What? That’s insane. The fact that you built that level of a business is off the charts. If I want to either learn how to wholesale or to buy a wholesale deal in one of your sandboxes, you’re the guy. And if you’re looking for a negative K-1 or something like that for passive losses, maybe a lesson is there’s others that can help with that kind of thing that could have helped you structure a better contract or whatever, man.
I love your attitude around it. I think you obviously shook it off. I appreciate you going there and I think that it’s one of those lessons just this business can deliver really, really bad right hooks. And as I said before, it’s one of those things where the successful real estate investor is the one that doesn’t let the right hook knock them down, they just stay in the ring. You’re going to make that money back with your wholesale business. I mean, you’ll just double down on wholesales and this’ll be just a really expensive but lesson you’ll easily recover from because of what you built already because of your core genius and your core greatness in the business.

Jamil:
Thank you Matt.

David:
And your amazing sense of fashion.

Jamil:
Yeah, I think I’m going to start adopting the look. Yeah, I’m going to adopt the look as an everyday thing.

David:
It’s very natural for you. Andrew, did you want to share your last horror story about the flood?

Andrew:
Yeah, this is a horror story that unfortunately is very timely.

David:
I was almost going to say, not to cut you off, but we may be hearing horror stories when this comes out from the actual situation going on in Florida right now where there’s a hurricane coming and you can’t control that. You don’t know what’s going to happen. This is a great example of the fact that trying to blame yourself for things you couldn’t have seen coming never works.

Andrew:
Right. The previous example I got, I talked about we sold those properties, basically investors broke even. We just got out of it and moved on. This one has a much happier ending. We purchased 150 units down in Lynnhaven, Florida, which is Panama City beach area, Florida panhandle. This was fall of 2016, I believe we closed in November. It was a C plus property in an A minus area for real, and so a ton of opportunity. We renovated it, took us about 18 months. We bumped the rent. We had just gotten to stabilization.
Our manager, we said, did a great job, and she moved up in the management company, went offsite. New manager came in. Three days later, 1:30 PM on October 10th, 2018, Hurricane Michael came through with 161 mile an hour winds, the strongest hurricane in recorded history to hit the Florida panhandle. And I have a screenshot that I keep of the eye wall of the hurricane directly over our property. And in three hours time we went from a hundred percent occupied to 9% occupied. The property used to be covered in beautiful tall pine trees. They all came down and sliced up the buildings like bread. And we actually had a guy who the next day we had to chainsaw him out of his unit because he was trapped in the unit.
What did we do to make that potential tragedy, potential horror story not be any worse than what it could have been? For one, I am a wannabe athlete trapped in a nerd’s body, and one of the benefits of being a nerd is I’ve always loved meteorology. I was watching this storm since it formed. It was a wee baby storm in the Northwest Caribbean, and I had a gut feeling that this wasn’t going to be good. One of the things we did is our team… And if you have a property in any area that is subject to disaster, whether it’s hurricanes or fires or whatever, sit down and think through what can you do to prepare for the event that you might not be able to control. There’s still ways to mitigate it.
Number one, we got tons of supplies in advance. We had cases and cases of bottled water. We had mounds and mounds of sandbags. We have tons of plywood. We basically forced everybody except for a few stubborn folks to just get the heck out of town, get out of your units. That’s a big reason why we had no injuries despite 18 inch trunks coming through the buildings. The next thing we did… These two things made a huge, huge difference.
We actually had one of our big contractors from Atlanta come down to the Florida panhandle and stay at a hotel the night before about 50 miles inland. He was still safe, but he was very close to that. He’d be able to come help us out that very next day. Again, I mean, we knew this was coming. Also, the day before the storm, we filed a claim with our insurance carrier, even though the storm hadn’t hit yet, we knew this is not going to be good. And the thing is, you can actually go back and cancel that claim and just say, “Oh nope, nevermind. Zero claim.” We put the carrier on notice the day before that we were expecting a claim.
And then we also knew we were in hurricane country. So we had $350,000 sitting in the properties reserve account just in case something happened and we needed it. So what happened? Three hours later, knee deep water in the parking lots, buildings either flattened, destroyed, ripped apart. Again, I think I mentioned this, we had no injuries. The next day we were able to start remediation because we had our contractors already lined up. They came straight to us. We were able to bring water to the residents. We were able to have a generator and have one unit with power. Power was out for something like three months. We had one unit that had power so people could come in, cool down, charge phones, all that kind of stuff.
We were able to pay contractors immediately with our 350,000 to get in there and start cleaning up, get water out of units, get the trees off of the unit so that the building doesn’t suffer more damage from additional rain. It’s Florida, it’s humid. Those things will turn black with mold in 72 hours if you don’t deal with it. And this was a big one because we put the insurance carrier on notice the day before, we got in line before everybody else. If you have a fire at your property, okay, you’re probably the only one making a claim. But if you’re in a situation where a hurricane devastates a hundred miles of coastline, can you just imagine the volume of claims the insurance carriers are processing?
We saw properties that sat untouched, un repaired for two to three years because they didn’t get their claim in fast enough and it took that long for them to get through the process. We had our first quarter million dollar check from the insurance carrier two weeks in. Also, we had what’s called loss of rent insurance, meaning with 14 units left, we didn’t obviously have the income to pay the mortgage or those expenses or salaries anymore. Well, the loss of rent insurance, the insurance company cuts a check to cover all of that, and so we were able to keep our staff and still pay the bills and still pay the mortgage. We never defaulted. We were never late.
And then this is a beautiful thing from our side and from our investor’s side, we bought that property for $4,125,000. When it was all said and done, 18 months later after we’d renovated it, the insurance carrier invested a little over $6 million on our behalf renovating and repairing that property. So now we basically have a 2019 construction property and it’s like, “Well, wait a second, Andrew, how do you buy a property for 4 million and get insurance proceeds of 6 million? It’s called making sure that you get full replacement value policies that are rated for whatever disasters could hit your area. If you’re in Texas, you need to be covered for hurricanes, wind, and hail, all that kind of stuff. You’re in California, maybe earthquake.
On the Gulf Coast it’s called category rated insurance for named hurricanes. And the lender will say, “Oh, you only need $70 a square foot.” We said, “No, no, no, no. It actually would probably cost us a hundred. We’re going to pay more on our insurance premiums to make certain we’re covered.” And a lot of times if you gamble and just get a lower premium by lower coverage, it’s going to work out just fine until you have a building burned down or a hurricane takes out the whole property and you max out the limits just trying to get the place rebuilt.
Today, that property, like I said, it’s effectively 2019 construction, the net operating income is 50% higher than it was before the hurricane. And the building that we bought for 4 million, even in today’s environment is worth 18 to 20 million. People will ask, “Oh man, what do you think about buying in areas where you can get hurricanes or fires or all this kind of stuff?” And you can do it, as long as you properly evaluate and mitigate the risks. Honestly, that was probably some of the 18 most stressful months I’ve ever had in multi-family. And that first 24 hours of just sitting here on my computer watching the hurricane pass directly over us knowing what was happening, the amount of rain and 160 mile winds, and I had staff and people who lived there, was again probably one of the worst experiences I’ve had multi-family. But with proper mitigation strategies, even horror stories can end up working out well.

Jamil:
I think this is not a horror story, brother. I think this was a hero story. The amount of planning, the things that you had in place there, there’s maybe this many people on the planet who care, who care to have stockpiled water, to have had resources, to have done the things that you had done as a property owner, as a business owner, as somebody who has been given the position in life where you’re truly in charge of people’s safety and of people’s livelihoods. I’ve never heard of somebody being that well prepared for a disaster before because look, it’s not human nature to do so.
But I have to say, Andrew, you impress the hell out of me, man. That was an incredible, incredible foresight. And I think that anybody who had the opportunity or has the opportunity to live in one of your properties or to be anywhere near you with respect to how you do business is a lucky person.

Andrew:
Well, and I got to give credit to our onsite team and staff. They are the ones who enacted everything and made it happen and delivered the water and cut the pine tree and got the contractors, all that stuff. I mean it really… I’m sitting out here in California, safe and warm and dry and they were the ones walking through knee deep water and knocking on doors and making sure everyone was safe. It really came down to having an awesome team in place. And then like you said, having some things set up in advance so that they could do that.

Matt:
I commend you too, Andrew. And I think that on the analytical side with regards to insurance, it is tempting when you look at a deal to say, “Okay, well maybe I’ll do some co-insurance here,” which is where the insurance company kicks in some money and you’re pretty much self-insured, where if you need a hundred thousand worth of damage, if that happens to one of your properties, the insurance company kicks in maybe 80% and you have to kick in 20%. In exchange for that co-insurance your premium’s going to be much, much less. That is penny wise, pound foolish when you have an issue like you did because you would end up losing 20% of that money that the bank kicked in to renovate your property.
I commend you for being more analytical about it. And I’ve seen many, many real estate investors make insurance errors. And as you said, maybe you never need it, maybe you just keep that cash flow and you drop your premium by 10%, 15%, and that just goes right to your bottom line. Or maybe a real catastrophic issue happens that you need insurance on. And the more real estate you buy, the more likelihood of having an insurance claim is going to come up in the future. I commend you for not being penny wise and pound foolish on your insurance, which enabled you to pretty much build a brand new apartment complex with the insurance company’s aid.

Andrew:
And there’s one other thing that’s really important that I forgot to mention. If you have a little kitchen fire that’s going to cost five grand, don’t worry about it. But if you have a building burn down or something significant, go get a really experienced public adjuster. Because the insurance company’s going to send out their own adjuster and their goal, they run a business, it’s not nefarious, but their goal is to collect premiums and not make payouts. And so they will send an adjuster out and try to give you as little as they can for the damages. A public adjuster will basically argue on your behalf of, “No, this shouldn’t be a hundred thousand, this should be 150.
On any kind of catastrophe like that, it is a full-time job. The contractor scope for repairs was 1,100 pages. There is no way I had the skill or ability to negotiate with the insurance company over that kind of thing. The public adjuster, again, who we talked to a couple days before the storm, we made sure we were front of his line. He really is a huge piece of why that worked out well is because we had somebody advocating who knew how to advocate in that kind of scenario on our behalf.

David:
Jamil, before we get out of here, where can people find out more about you?

Jamil:
You can find me on my Instagram @jdamjil. I also have a YouTube page where I share all kinds of tricks and tips on how to get a great wholesale deal. And that’s just youtube.com/jamildamji.

David:
Andrew, same question.

Andrew:
Yeah, I shouldn’t be but I’m a social media ghost, so best way to find me is just Google Vantage Point Acquisitions. It should bring up our website, which is vpacq.com. There’s a couple different ways to contact us on the website or you can also connect on Bigger Pockets and on LinkedIn.

David:
And Matt?

Matt:
Sure, it’s Sheriff Faircloth here. You can get a hold of us at derosagroup.com, wearing my son’s sons cowboy hat. D-E-R-O-S-A group.com, D-E-R-O-S-A group.com. You can pick up a copy of my book, Raising Private Capital, Bigger Pockets best seller over there. You can join our investor mailing list and you can check out our social handles on our website, derosagroup.com.

David:
Guys, this has been one of the better shows I think that we’ve ever done. We showed the warts, we showed the cream that we use to fix those juicy warts. We got to see Jamil in a robe and we got to see me actually for the first time in my life dressing up for Halloween. We also got to share some amazing horror stories that I hope everybody benefits from.
Each and every one of you, I want to thank you guys for being here, for sharing the ugly as well as the good. I hope to see you again. We’re going a little long, so I’m going to get us out of here. Listeners, if you like this, let us know in YouTube, log in, go to the comments, tell us what you liked, what you didn’t like, and if you want to see more of this content in the future, and then be sure to share and subscribe. Thank you very much.
This is David, Sergeant Slaughter Green for Jamil Hugh Hefner Damji, Andrew Hang Loose Cushman, and Matt didn’t know we were doing this today, Faircloth, signing off.

 

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The 1% Rule, Turnkey Rentals, and Escrow Accounts Explained


Is the 1% rule in real estate still relevant? Who shouldn’t be buying turnkey rentals? And why is an escrow account favorable for scaling real estate investors? All these questions and more are coming up in this Rookie Reply.

We’re back at BPCon 2022, and joining us is fellow investor and turnkey operator, Zach Lemaster. You may have heard Zach’s episode on the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast or maybe you’ve used his turnkey company, Rent to Retirement, before!

Zach helps us answer an array of questions, some from semi-passive turnkey investors and some from active investors. We touch on investor lines of credit and how to secure them, the 1% rule’s relevance in 2022, whether or not to get preapproved before finding a deal, buying off-market, and much more! Zach also poses three questions every investor should ask BEFORE investing in turnkey rentals.

If you want Ashley and Tony to answer a real estate question, you can post in the Real Estate Rookie Facebook Group! Or, call us at the Rookie Request Line (1-888-5-ROOKIE).

Ashley:
This is Real Estate Rookie episode 230.

Zach:
I think when a lot of people start shopping for investment properties, especially the rookie investor that’s just building out their criteria. It’s okay not to have all of your criteria in the very beginning because I think that’s a dynamic process. But often they’re looking at proformas and looking at properties and trying to mash that to make sense for them instead of coming up with their criteria first and I think you build that over time. But it’s all about taking action at the end of the day and critiquing your investing goals.

Ashley:
My name is Ashley Kehr and I’m here with my co-host Tony Robinson.

Tony:
And welcome to the Real Estate Rookie Podcast where every week, twice a week we bring you the inspiration, information and stories you need to hear to kickstart your investing journey. We always like to start these episodes by shouting out some folks from the Rookie audience and this week we want to give a shout on someone who left a five star review on Apple Podcast. This is Big Brand Investor. So this person said, “I’m a motivated rookie and I just wanted to say this is by far the greatest platform I utilize on a daily basis. The information you guys provide for a rookie investor is so invaluable, I look forward to getting my first property. Thank you.” With three praise hand emojis. So Big Brand Investor, we appreciates you and if you haven’t yet, please do leave us an honest rating review on whatever podcast platform that you listen to. So Ashley Kehr what’s up? How are you?

Ashley:
If you leave us a five star review, Tony will read it.

Tony:
I will read it. If you leave a one star review, I will delete it.

Ashley:
I wish you could actually do that but instead I would just be crying. So we are at the BiggerPockets Conference live in San Diego.

Tony:
Beautiful, sunny San Diego. This is the dopest backdrop for a podcast I think I’ve ever seen. So moving forward, we’ve already told the BiggerPockets crew that we are only recording podcasts in this room moving forward. So we need you guys to leave a bunch of five star reviews for this episode specifically and talk about how much you love the backdrop that way we can keep this going.

Ashley:
And we’re trying to figure out how to fit this in the back of Tony’s car. Did you bring your truck?

Tony:
I did bring the truck.

Ashley:
Okay, perfect.

Tony:
I did bring the truck.

Ashley:
We’re loading this thing into the back and taking it home.

Tony:
But we’re excited, it’s cool to be here at BPCON, there’s so much energy. I walked into their morning session this morning and it was like a sea of people. It was so crazy to have so many investors kind of all in the same space here to learn, here to network, it’s been fantastic.

Ashley:
So last night it officially started with a kickoff party and event and then today is all day sessions, tomorrow sessions and another ending party. But I feel like I’ve already met so many people, learned a ton of things just from walking around the hotel, going on yacht parties, from coming in just a day early even. So I think if you are going to some kind of conference, an event either maybe come in a day early or stay a day late to do even more networking out of the conference setting because that’s so overwhelming. Getting into the conference setting, meeting people, you’re trying to get to your breakout session, things like that but…

Tony:
When you can come early and share a drink with someone and just get to know them in a more relaxed setting, it makes the rest of the conference so much more enjoyable because now you’ve got that buddy you’re going to be hanging out with. And I remember one of the first big conferences I went to, I bumped into a friend that I had met at a meetup a few months before and I hadn’t seen him since a meetup. We met at that conference just by chance, we both ended up going there. We spent that whole weekend together and then he was actually the person that introduced me into short term rentals. So it’s like you never know where these networking opportunities are going to take you or the impact they’ll have on you.

Ashley:
I agree. So our first guess that we’re having on today is going to help us with the Rookie replies.

Tony:
Yes.

Ashley:
So we are excited to have Zach on today. He is from Rent to Retirement and he is going to help us answer the Rookie reply questions.

Tony:
Yeah. Zach, he’s got a really crazy backstory. He was interviewed on the OG Podcast. We’ll link his episode in the OG Podcast in the show notes. But he’s built Rent to Retirement to be this really big company but even before that, he had a pretty wild ride as an investor himself. So anyway, we brought him on to kind of talk turnkey properties and just some other issues that rookies might be dealing with that his expertise could lend itself to.

Ashley:
We know that on Saturday you guys get sick of Tony’s dry monotone voice and my laugh. So we thought it would be great to have somebody else come in and answer some questions to really break it up. So let’s bring Zach onto the show.

Tony:
So, Zach. Welcome to the podcast, excited to have you brother.

Zach:
So excited to be here, man. This is BPCON, it’s awesome, pleasure is all mine tony.

Tony:
Yeah, awesome. So we’re going to jump into some questions we have from the Rookie audience. The first one comes from Heidi G [inaudible 00:04:40] and Heidi’s question is, can someone explain a non-key log line of credit? We’ve been told to check into a commercial line of credit to have cash for off market purchases. We’re looking at four to five doors, we have about $600,000 in equity across our rentals with no mortgages on them. But I don’t have a firm grasp of requirements and a process for commercial lines credit. So what is your insights or your thoughts on there?

Zach:
That’s a loaded question. Historically in our experience with commercial lines of credit or business lines of credit, which is not what you get in the mail saying you qualify by for $75,000 credit that’s usually just the advanced credit card. Generally we have the most success working with a local bank that you’re building a business relationship with and you’re building up your line of credit if it’s non-secured over time. And typically, they want you to have the same amount of liquid cash available that you’re taking out, you build it up over time. But based on that question, Tony I think it would make, at least in my opinion, a lot more sense to maybe just take out a mortgage on those properties or even a [inaudible 00:05:43] that they have significant equity on. I think that’s going to be a lot more accessible and allow them to expand the portfolio.

Tony:
That’s a really good point. I mean, think about if they have no mortgages that might be the easiest path. Just go get a mortgage and you don’t even have to worry about the line of credit. But you mentioned that the smaller mobile banks, what does that process look like? So if someone walks through a bank, what am I asking for? What documents do they need? Just kind of break it down for us.

Zach:
I think it’s all relationship based, when you’re talking about local credit unions, local banks this is really where it gets relationship based banking where you need to have experience with them. They need to see significant deposits coming in. Usually you’re building rapport with them all the time. I think it’s very unlikely for someone to normally just get a business or commercial line of credit that’s not secured, just walking in the first time in a bank without building that report and that relationship over time. So it really is relationship based banking and I think having a business with them, developing that over time.

Ashley:
Think about a retail store or something, if they’re going to get a commercial business line of credit they’re probably putting up their inventory or something like that as collateral. Is that correct?

Zach:
Oh, A 100% yeah. If you half collateral a true commercial line credit or business line credit, that’s not secure. That’s what we kind of talked about when we think of a line of credit. But if they’re actually securing it against a business or an asset, something like that, it’ll be much easier to collateralize that. But in my opinion, again, I think they just collateralize the properties they own free and clear.

Ashley:
I think so too. I think that’s the best option. And the only loan that I would say that they would be better off is if they actually have a brokerage account where they’ve invested a bunch of money into the stock market and then do a line of credit against that. Because you’re going to get the best rates because it’s so liquid. But other than that, yeah, definitely going that route with putting the dot on the properties because you’re probably going to have to show them a lot less if you’re trying just to get it an unsecured loan.

Zach:
They’re in a good position [inaudible 00:07:46]

Ashley:
Congratulations, you have lots of options. Okay, we’re going to go on to question number two. Help me out here, I found an off market deal two weeks ago and agreed in a price with seller. He said he was ready to move out and wanted this done quick. Let me note that I have not been pre-qualified, so I started my search for a lender and today I spoke with a local one. I stopped by the seller’s home today and told him that wheels were rolling and I’ll have an answer for him upon a pre-approval of the loan. He raised the price by pay because he installed a new AC unit, he paid 4k. I brought him down to 93.5 and he said, okay, just three minutes later, sorry, I’d rather not sell because a new home will be more expensive. So now in order to avoid this from happening again, I realize I need to get them in contract as soon as possible. My dilemma is this one, do I submit my application with the lender, find out if I’m pre-approved even though I don’t have a home to buy or just wait until a good deal is on the table again? Only reason I’m a little unsure about qualifying is due to my DTI, but at the same time, I don’t want to hurry to pay the credit cards if not necessary.

Zach:
Good question.

Ashley:
Yeah.

Tony:
Sounds like a lot of sellers we’ve been dealing with for recently change their mind.

Zach:
I believe the question we’re hearing is you get qualified with the lender first and then find the dealer for vice versa, is that the base question?

Ashley:
Yeah.

Zach:
I think you know what your financing options are because otherwise, you don’t want to be putting things under contract if you can’t actually qualify for financing, and you need to know what those terms look like. We work with a lot of newer investors looking to build their portfolio and often the concern is, well I don’t want to run my credit, they don’t want my credit to be. But people really don’t understand. I think fundamentally where your credit needs to be to qualify for loans and how minimal of an impact a credit search or a credit report can actually have. We run our credit like multiple times a month all year round. We’re still able to stay above at 740, which is kind of the highest threshold, at least from a conventional standpoint. What do you guys think?

Ashley:
Well the first thing is if you have credit card debt, I recommend you paying that off because that is probably the worst debt that you can have. And I wouldn’t wait until you decide to get a home or not. I would pay that off just because the interest rates on that are astronomical. So I would take care of that first definitely.

Tony:
Yeah, I agree with you Zach. I think understanding what your financing option should be set, number one. It’s easy to go out into your properties under contract, but like you said, if you get a property in your contract with half a million, which only prequalified for 250, now you’re in a really sticky situation. So you’ve put down EMD or you’ve got some other contractual things you’re obligated to now you can’t close. I think understand that [inaudible 00:10:33] is important. Now if you are in that situation where you do have a good property, gets a great deal under contract and something Ashley and I talk about a lot is if you can’t get qualified for that loan, you don’t have the capital available, can you find a part of it does or can you get a hard money loan? So it’s kind of bridge that gap. So best route is getting the financing first, but if you get a good deal under contract and you can’t get the financing, I would say find a partner, then you kind hard [inaudible 00:10:56] to help you out.

Zach:
A 100% partnership is huge.

Tony:
Yeah. All right. So let’s look at the next question here. So this one comes from Derek Moore. Derek says, I have a duplex that I’m looking into that is off market. The numbers are good and the house appears to be in decent condition, though I haven’t yet had a GC or inspector walk through it yet. The duplex comes from active tenants that are current on the rents, allegedly. The place doesn’t need much repairs mostly [inaudible 00:11:20]. Here are my questions. One, should I pay to get the house appraised before I do any repairs? Two, when asking for the rent roll, is it normal to ask for base bank statements shown that the rent was actually paid? And three, is it a good idea to keep the tenants in the home if they are occurrence on rent have lived you home for two more than three year? So question number one, let me just repeat it for you because I know it was lot. So question number one is, should I get the house a free before I make any repairs?

Zach:
Well, I think it really depends on your buying situation, but generally the bank is going to require an appraisal and you want the appraisal to be at the highest value. So I would say you wait until the home is repaired and then you have the appraisal.

Tony:
Maybe I’m reading into it, but he said it’s an off market deal. Maybe he’s going with some kind of hard money or something to that extent. So say that he’s going hard money or he’s got the cash, but do you still get an appraisal in that situation?

Zach:
We buy a lot without having state for appraisal, but we also know what the value is. We run our own DPOs or we run comps to know. I think appraisals are good to have, but they’re also very subjective in some cases. And if a bank requires an appraisal, then you’re going to have that. But I think the more important thing is know your numbers, know your ARB, the repairs that are going into it because the appraisal really does matter in that case.

Tony:
So if you’re buying off market and then say for Derek’s situation, say he is buying off market, it’s a cash transaction or hard number transaction, would you still recommend you get an inspection done on that properly or what’s kind of your process?

Zach:
I got an inspection down and appraisal is an inspection to some degree on its own. But yeah, I think inspections are something we always recommend to everyone no matter how experienced or new you are. And it gives you better negotiation standpoint as well.

Tony:
One of the things that we love to do is we’ll do an inspection room property and we’ll send our handyman to meet the inspector on the same day and they are hanging on, just walk behind the inspector, take it down of everything they’re calling out. And then as soon as the inspection’s done, we have a scope of work and a bid on what it would take to repair that inspection report. So I agree, I think it’s a great negotiating tactic once you’ve got a property in your contract to allow this, that would be a little bit more reasonable, which was probably more difficult than last year because everything is going crazy. But I think is we get into the back half of this year and early next year, those will give you a little bit more witness.

Zach:
You’re so dialed in on your systems, you’re going to bid and the inspection [inaudible 00:13:50].

Tony:
Yeah love it. Okay, so question number two, when asking for the rent roll is as normal to ask for the bank statements showing [inaudible 00:13:56].

Zach:
With our experience with sellers, you get rent rolls in all shapes and forms. I don’t know if it’s inappropriate, I’m curious to hear what your guys’ opinion is on this, but I think kind of most of mom and pop owners maybe don’t have their finances prepared well enough to really give you a clean accounting, at least historically when we’re buying rentals that are already rentals, usually there’s an issue there. They’re not monitoring the income on it but don’t know.

Ashley:
Yeah, what we usually do is we send out an estoppel agreement to the tenants. So we have them fill out the name, the contact information we have them state basically the things that are in the lease. So what’s the rent you pay, when’s the last time you paid rent, what repairs and maintenance need to be done in the property, Things like that. So we kind of match what they say with what the landlord said and kind of see how that correlates.

Zach:
And for anyone that doesn’t know for estoppels, because I think this is more common in the commercial space and maybe not so much in the residential, but basically the tenants verifying that the lease is correct and they’ve been adhering to the leases. Did I say that correctly?

Ashley:
Yes.

Tony:
What happens if there’s a discrepancy between what the tenant says is happening and what the landlord says is that happened?

Ashley:
Yeah, so then that’s where you go back to the landlord and say, this is what your tenant stated and signed and then ask for the follow up proof. So that’s when it would probably be appropriate to ask for the bank statements or if they’re using some kind of property management software where they can show that the ACH went through for print off that report for you or copies of the canceled checks to show that the tenant did pay and what the amount was that they actually paid.

Zach:
So actually, are you asking every seller to allow for a tenant to estoppels every property-

Ashley:
There is a tenant in place, yes.

Zach:
I love that. That’s great due diligence. Leave the tenant place.

Ashley:
Yeah. Is it a good idea to keep the tenants in the home if they are current on run and have lived in the home for two or three years?

Zach:
I think you have to adhere to that lease, you can’t evict them if there’s no grounds to do that. But if they’ve been a good tenant, why would you change that? I mean if they were vetted appropriately, a lot of times would be inherit tenant they don’t have a history of being a great tenant, at least with properties that are underperforming. But if you have get a good tenant, those are hard to come by, so keep them.

Ashley:
Them. Yeah, I think in Derek’s situation, he mentioned that he wanted to do repairs in the beginning. So I think it really depends on what kind of repairs you’re doing. So if you need the tenants out to do a major remodel so that you can get the appraisal, refinance, pull your money back out, then yes you probably want to ask the tenants to leave. But it really depends on the lease. If they are in a two or three year lease, you can’t just ask them to leave. You can ask, but they don’t have to leave. But if they have been paying, they keep the property in good shape, you can do the repairs around them, you might as well hold on to a good tenant.

Zach:
We’ve had a lot of tenants that have been extremely happy that we’re coming in and repairing and improving their living situation as well. That also opens the door to if there’s been poor communication with the previous landlord, you can repair those relationships, improve the house and actually rekindle that relationship with a tenant as well.

Ashley:
Yeah, one thing we’ve done too is getting the option to the tenant say, we’re going to do these repairs, your rent is going to increase to this amount on this date or you may vacate at the end of your lease. So I think getting the option too is a good-

Zach:
I love that idea. You find that most tenants end up staying?

Ashley:
Yeah. And another thing that we’ve done too with coming into a property where there’s tenants in place, if they’re paying way below market rent already and there’s not maybe a couple things that need to be fixed, we do a slow rental increase too, which we’ve found people love that. We show them comps like, okay, if you’re going to move into a similar property that’s the same amount of bedrooms, bathrooms, same kind of upgrades that we’re still going to be a little bit below market rent or at market rent. So if you move, you’re going to end up paying more or the same amount, plus you’re moving expenses. So then we slowly do a rental increase, maybe $25 a month till they get to that point, or $25 for two months in the next two months, it’s $50 increase. So we’ve learned that that has really helped a lot too, doing it that way to keep these tenants of paying. We had one tenant that lived there for 30 years and she was about $200 below market rent when it was, and that’s what we did that gradually increased with her and-

Zach:
I think just took the goal for longest occupancy.

Tony:
30 years?

Ashley:
And that was also bought it five years ago. So 35 years now.

Zach:
That is golden bucks, I love that.

Tony:
All right, so next question for you Zach. This one comes from Nodi [inaudible 00:18:44], I hope I got your name right. So Nodi says rookie question here, I’ve been looking at different deals out there in order to learn how to run the numbers and I’m especially interested in rental properties that are turnkey. I used the BP rental calculator on this deal and I recently saw a house that was on sale for $149,000 with a monthly rent up 1150. Clearly this doesn’t meet the 1% rule. I run the numbers myself on BP calculator and had a positive cash flow $200 per month. My question is, what am I missing here? I thought that if the problem doesn’t meet the 1% rule, it would have a negative cash flow. Is this common to find with turnkey properties?

Zach:
We have these conversations all the time because people want to invest based on rules of thumb. But I encourage them to invest based on their criteria and their goals. The 1% rule really doesn’t exist in today’s market, and if it does, maybe it’s a property that’s at a low price point that may not be in a good area. I can tell you with it’s the main turnkey properties that we offer, there really isn’t any 1%. We can go into a C or D plus area to try to on paper show a 1% rule. But remember when you’re evaluating based on those numbers and proformas just an anticipated performance, you could have a tenant that moves out in the house of vacant for six months out of the year and then it really doesn’t matter at that point. So I guess the way that I would encourage people to approach their investing is to have a baseline criteria, know what numbers do work for them based on their financing and investing needs, and then try to obtain those and also be conscious of the locations that they’re investing in. I think the 1% rule really doesn’t exist to be quite honest anymore. And I think if you are looking at 1% rule type properties, be cautious about the neighborhoods that they’re in.

Tony:
I think so many rookie investors, they come to us and they want to know what market should I invest in? What city should I invest in? What’s a big deal? Should I buy this or not? And a lot of times it’s almost impossible for us to get those answers because like you said, everyone has their own criteria, their own level of return they’re looking for. So people ask me that question, I always say, depends, what’s more important to you? Is appreciation more important to you? Is cash flow more important to you? Is the return on your investment.More important to you? There’s so many different things you can look at when you’re evaluating a yield and there are ways that the 1% rule, 2% rule, all these other rules can be beneficial, but at the end of the day they’re just rules of thumb, they’re not laws of real estate investing. So it’s answer no, just question I think [inaudible 00:21:20] said, it’s like what is your goal? If $200 in cash flow is good for me, you getting a decent cash from cash return and it’s invited to you, doesn’t matter if, is that on [inaudible 00:21:28], right?

Ashley:
And kind of touched on your point that you know are hitting the 1% role in today’s market or in the last two years that it’s probably low income area, more affordable house and going to be a headache property. And I can completely attest to that where I buy $20,000 duplexes that were way of more than hitting the 1% rule, but they were cutting properties and also I was not hitting 50% rule. So per deal, you’re supposed to have your expenses 50% of what the monthly rental income is, and since the property taxes were so high in this market that you weren’t hitting that rule. So that should show that you can’t just rely on one rule of thumb or even one ratio or one statistic. It’s all about what your criteria is, what your goal is, and then building out all of the ratios, the rules, and then pulling from that as to building the big picture instead of just one thing.

Zach:
I think when a lot of people start shopping for investment properties, especially the rookie investor, that’s just building out their criteria. It’s okay, not to have all of your criteria in the very beginning because I think that’s a dynamic process. But often they’re looking at proformas and looking at properties and trying to match that to make sense for them instead of coming up with their criteria first. And I think you build that over time. But it’s all about taking action at the end of the day and critiquing your investing goals.

Tony:
All right. So I’m going to jump into the next question. This one comes from Christina [inaudible 00:23:02] and I hope I got your last right. So Christina says that she’s about to close in her first property. It’s a turnkey condo with tenants and proper manager already in place. The original plan was to self manage but keeping the PM was part of the propriety of the deal and the numbers works every area. Do I actually get the keys to the condo or does the PM and the tenant keep them? Am I required a 90 day notice to terminate with the PM? I’m sorry. She says I am required a 90 day notice to determining with PM but am required to keep them through the end of the lease. Tenant is required a 60 day notice. Should I provide contact info to the tenant and build a relationship if I’m thinking of self-managing opportunity? I’m not required to ask for insurance as a better pay out of pocket annually versus escort with what else should I need to know?So I’m going to try and rephrase that so I get the big questions here. Okay, so the first question is, does she actually get the keys to the condo once she closes it or does a PM intend to keep them? And then should she start building a relationship with that tenant now knowing that once that contract is able terminated, she plan self-manage, and then is there anything else she should know and the insurance, she should ask her that.

Zach:
Yeah, 10 more questions, we’re trying to get through them. I think this is very applicable to your last point about it just depends, you what I mean? First of all, consult with your local attorney. State laws vary depending on how you interact with the tenant. Personally we do not self-manage any of our properties at this point because our time is better spent for building our business. And so we want to have management but have right management in place. Typically the keys go right to the management. I never see those keys when I’m moved by our property, nor do I want them, I don’t want to have them. We don’t engage with our tenants. I personally like the anonymity of not having tenants to know who we are. They should be engaging with the management and that’s why you have a professional property management in place.
As far as escrowing, this is one thing for tax and insurance, we actually paid it on our own. You don’t escrow with mortgages, whether it is a conventional loan or commercial property that we buy. We always pay our own tax and insurance because I just don’t like, even though it’s more convenient, I don’t like having to the bank, they prepay it basically they collect it up front so you’re paying it in advance and that can be a lot of money when you have a lot of property. But you also need to remember to do that if your taxes are due twice a year… Don’t let that lapse. You don’t ever want that lapse. So it depends.

Tony:
I’m the other way, I’d like to have my insurance and taxes compounded with my mortgage monthly payment because I like the convenience of it and I’m the king for getting [inaudible 00:25:45]. So I know that I’ll be the first guy who doesn’t have insurance on any of his rental properties business for getting to make that payment. So I like that convenience. But your point too about the manager has the keys, it’s like yes, the owner, obviously you own the property so if you want get the keys, you can get the keys. But the whole reason you’re paying this property manager is so that they can hold the keys if [inaudible 00:26:04] we’re supposed to do. We’ve sold off all of our long term results for what we did have ours, I didn’t know what any of my tenants looked like. They were in multiple states away. So if I bump into them on the street, we wouldn’t know each other from some other random person. I love that.

Ashley:
I’m a little bit different. I like to maintain control. So at close I like to get a study keys, I like to have the tenants contacts information and I like to have a copy of the lease all upfront instead of it just going directly to the property manager. I like to have those things with me too so that I always have some kind of control over my property. Especially as you’re starting out, I think your first property even, I mean I understand as you get to build and grow and scale, it’s just not feasible to have this rack in your basement of all the keys for all your units. But yeah, I think it’s perfectly acceptable to ask for keys at closing for the property that you are purchasing. But when the tenant moves out or anything like that, you’re going to be probably putting in a new lock, getting new keys on too for the property.
As far as the property taxes and insurance goes with escrow, right before BPCON started on Saturday, we released an episode about my property tax bill that wasn’t paid. And I’ve actually had a couple people come up and talk to me about it already. Great timing for me to vent on a podcast and it’s a release for BEPCON but it was where a property tax bill wasn’t paid and Tony and I talked about and he’s like, Well you should just put them all into escrow. So that’s something I have to talk to my commercial lender about. On the residential side it’s very easy to have that happen, but on the commercial side it wasn’t. And I think one reason that I was always kind of against it was that you’re paying the money up front where instead it’s just one bill, you pay it in here. So if you’re purchasing the property and then your insurance is due every… You’re usually you pay it up front, you pay a years of property taxes up front, years of insurance up front. Well then if you’re escrowed you start paying and adding to the following years where instead I could use that money for something else and then the end of the year pay it. So that’s kind of my reason to be against it. But after having a hard back, I’ll probably be more expert to escrow.

Zach:
So is that how you get tenants to stay for 35 years person? But that’s a good clarification point, Ashley. I think generally conventional loans, single family, small multi, it’s expected for the lender to escrow though.

Ashley:
Usually almost always required, don’t have an option.

Zach:
Every see kind of on the commercial side and grow your portfolio. Sometimes they will refuse or escrow, they won’t even escrow into it. Like our property management for some of the retail centers we buy, they actually pay the tax and insurance but it’s not technically escrow into the loan. But yeah, I’m right there but we need something to make it or we’re paying it.

Tony:
So I just want to touch on that last piece, so is there anything else maybe a new [inaudible 00:29:10] we should know about buying turnkey properties?

Zach:
Turnkey is a great way for people to get started to diversify, especially if their local market is too expensive to get started or to scale beyond what they’re doing on their own. Even if they’re an active investor, turnkey is a great way for them to just add doors to their portfolio strategically, which in my opinion is kind of the name of the game here. I think what we’re all trying to achieve.
But do you know who you’re working with? You obviously want to invest in the right locations with the right people. Just because you’re buying turnkey does not mean that you are safeguarded from any normal risk that real estate would you still have tenant issues potentially. So just know that going into it, I think that’s the biggest disconnect when we work with investors that are wanting to buy turnkey is just thinking that this is going to be completely passive and it still is active to some degree even if you have a great tenant property management set up. But it can be a great way for people to get started, avoid some pitfalls to diversify and scale over time.

Tony:
So let me ask this question Zach. So we reinvest in fair Airbnbs vacation rentals and it’s very kind of sexy asset class right now. A lot of people looking get into it, but also caution and lot people know that it’s not for everyone. Not everyone should be buying vacation rentals and managing themselves because there’s definitely more work to do is that asset class versus others. So who would you say maybe is turnkey not for? What kind of investor does it maybe not work for?

Zach:
Oh that’s a great question because I want to conform it to everybody come by house with us now. I think the person that can do better on their own, being an active investor that understands the risks of being an active investor that really enjoys that. And two, short term rentals, they’re full on management. Even if you have management, that’s why you pay them 20, 30% possibly more. But the people that are really excited and passionate about doing their own thing with real estate, they don’t want to be a passive investor yet. You probably can obtain better returns actively investing, but there is more work and potential risk with that course.

Tony:
And the thing I always say is to be good anything and investing be time, desire, and ability. And if you’re missing any one of those key ingredients, you’re going to struggle. And if you can I guess fill that gap with a terms company or whatever it is, you’ll probably find more success. Because if you don’t have the time, it’s going to be very difficult to find an undervalued asset to rehab it, to get it stabilized, to manage those in its long term. If you don’t have the desire, even if you have the time and the ability, you’re going to hate doing it. So you need the [inaudible 00:31:55] of all those things.

Zach:
And it’s just important to be honest with yourself. I think. That’s excellent points to be honest with what your goals, what your time, experience level is and then take action accordingly.

Ashley:
And it’s such a great way for new investors to get started to learn from what other people are doing. You get a whole team, you get everything there so that you can say, okay, this is how this operates, this is how this operates. And then if you want to go on to start borrowing yourself or something, you have already kind of watched firsthand, those resources, the team you need kind of go into play. So I think for rookies turnkey is a great option just to get started. Especially, if you’ve been in analysis paralysis, you’ve been delaying taking action cause you don’t have time. And it’s been years that you’ve been wanting to do this, like that I think is a perfect candidate for getting into turnkey.

Zach:
The mindset aspect of it, actually I’m so happy that you said that because so many people and especially in the VV community, they get stuck, they’re excited about real estate, they get stuck in the analysis paralysis. That first property in my opinion is not important financially. It’s important to mentally, emotionally. And if turnkey’s an access way to get you started, then do that. We have so many investors that come back years later and they haven’t bought from us for five or six years, but they’ve gone out and built this insanely large portfolio and been extremely successful and they’re like, hey, those first couple properties gave me the confidence to go out and do that. And I love hearing those stories, so thanks for mentioning that point.

Ashley:
Yeah, that’s really awesome. Just one last question about turnkey is what are maybe three questions that someone should be asking a turnkey provider when vetting them?

Zach:
I definitely would say track record is the most importance. Let’s talk about the markets and make sure that their model and their business, it meets real criteria, because not all turnkey is created equal. People work in different markets that you have different niches in business. Some people do short term, long term, multi-family, new construction and development. So just make sure one, that business I think matches your goals and criteria at least fundamentally make sure that they have a quality and track record and you want to check references and due diligence just like with anyone that you jump into business with. And the third question is to do these properties makes sense for my criteria. And if they do, then I think you take that.

Ashley:
Well, that was great and thank you so much for joining us here live at BPCON. Can you tell everyone where they can find out some more information about you and possibly reach out you?

Zach:
Absolutely. You can visit renttoretirement.com. That’s rent T-O retirement.com. We have all links to social media. We’d be happy to talk about anything you’re doing investing, We do short-term rentals, we do multi-family new construction. We have our hands in a lot of stuff. And we’re here to add value. Please reach out. And you guys, thank you so much for having me. This has been a lot of fun, BPCON2022.

Ashley:
I’m Ashley at WealthfromRentals and he’s Tony at Tony J. Robinson on Instagram. Thank you guys so much for listening and we will be back on Wednesday with a guest. (singing)

 

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80% of US Housing Is Overvalued


US housing markets have started to shift. The massive run-up in home prices eventually led us to high interest rates, high inflation, and a generation of renters who can’t afford to buy, even with price cuts. This should come as no surprise, as Moody’s Analytics estimates that some eighty percent of real estate markets are overvalued. Of those markets, where are the opportunities to invest the highest as prices naturally start to decline?

Instead of speculating, we brought Cris deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, onto the show to explain why this is happening, what his team is forecasting, and how investors like us can stay prepared. Cris and his team diligently look through data to predict how the housing market will move. He knows that it’ll take time for the market to finally reach equilibrium again. But, unfortunately, this may not happen any time soon.

Cris’s team is focusing on looking at a few things: demographics, supply, and demand. Each influences the others severely and leaves hints at where the housing market is headed next. Dave and James tag-team this episode, touching on whether US housing will become even more unaffordable, long-term home supply predictions, affordable housing, and a demand drop-off that could end real estate investing over the next decade.

Dave:
Hey, what’s going on everyone? Welcome to On The Market. I’m your host, Dave Meyer, joined today by James Dainard. James, what is going on, man?

James:
Oh, doing well. Just grinding through this market right now. We are in rapid wrap things up. It has definitely been transitioning pretty aggressively in the last four to six weeks.

Dave:
Well, as we’re going to hear from our guest today who is incredible, the guest today is Cris deRitis, who is the Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household financing, housing credit markets, and public policy. He’s incredible guest. We had an amazing discussion. He talked about, spoiler alert, he thinks markets are going down over the next couple years and he’s going to explain that in more detail, but with that information, maybe, do you have a quick tip for anyone listening to this on how to keep investing and keep improving your financial position in a market that is potentially declining in the next year?

James:
Yeah. It’s all about just proper underwriting and buying right now and just mitigating risk. I think the biggest thing that we’ve been doing and we’ve been talking to our clients about is just not rushing into that deal, really running your core metrics numbers, putting some padding in your proforma, putting some padding in whatever your exit plan is. Like what we’re doing or my favorite strategy in 2008 to ’12 was I just ran everything so worst case. As long as I knew I would break even no matter what on the deal, we would buy it. So just be super conservative on the numbers.
We are seeing extremely good buys right now in the multifamily sector, though. I mean, we are getting pricing I haven’t seen in a while. So just really look for where the actual opportunities are, and if you were doing something in the last 24 months, you might want to switch it up and look at in a different investment platform at this time.

Dave:
Awesome. That’s great advice. Yeah. Everyone listening to this, I mean, it’s what this show is about, right? There’s always opportunity. You just have to adjust your strategy to the market conditions. I think you’re going to learn a lot from this episode. I loved this episode. This was really helpful. Finally, we’re talking to someone who really does economic forecasting and modeling and has, I think, a very sound understanding of what’s going to happen in the housing market, not just in the next two years, which is important, but over the next 10 or 20 years, which is perhaps even more important for real estate investors who are trying to build a long-term strategy, trying to find that financial freedom. So definitely stick around for this. We’re going to take a quick break, but then we’ll be back with Cris deRitis from Moody’s Analytics.
All right. Let’s welcome Chris deRitis, who is the Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics to On The Market. Cris, thank you so much for being here.

Cris:
Oh, thanks for having me. Looking forward to it.

Dave:
Well, James and I have been nerding out about some of your economic studies and we will get into some of the Moody’s forecasts for the next few years, but first, can you just tell us a little bit about yourself and your role at Moody’s?

Cris:
Sure. So I am the Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. That’s distinct from the rating agency that most people think of when they think Moody’s. We have a different division that focuses just on risk analysis. Particularly, my group focuses on economics and economic scenarios. So we do a lot of forecasting across the United States. We’ve got a lot of local markets, as well as international forecasting as well. So we’re constantly looking at the data, trying to figure out where economies are headed, and hopefully providing some guidance that leads to better or more useful decision making.

Dave:
Well, we’re super excited to have you. We do a lot of speculating on this show where we read a lot and I think we’re all pretty informed about what’s going on in the housing market, but none of us actually maintain for economic models or do our own forecasting. So we’re really excited to have you on and talk about what you all see happening in the short-term and, perhaps more importantly as we were just discussing before we started, the long term trends in the housing market.
So before we pin you down and ask you what you think will happen next year, can you just tell us a little bit about the variables? What are the factors that you’re looking at that impact the forecasting you’re doing for the housing market at least over the next few years?

Cris:
So forecasting housing is like forecasting any other asset. We look at both supply and demand. On the supply side, we’re looking at the factors that impact builders’ ability to build homes, so construction costs, how much are building materials. Lumber prices had been a big issue throughout the pandemic, for example. Wages of construction workers and even availability of construction workers is an issue when it comes to building homes. Perhaps more than anything right now, the builders tell us that it’s zoning restrictions and other regulations that they face, which really limits their ability to find buildable lots and put up housing.
Then on the demand side, we’re certainly looking at the cost to borrow. That’s the major factor impacting home buyers. Most homes are still financed in the US. So as interest rates go up, demand comes down, and we’re seeing demand come way down, of course, as affordability gets impacted. So those are just some of the factors that we’re looking at, household formations, right? So how many households are actually being added to the population? Well, that’s a direct corollary or highly correlated with demand, right? You have more households coming in, you have more immigration or higher birth rates. That’s going to impact the demand for housing that we need in the country.
Aging of the population might impact how many second homes or vacation homes people want as well. So there are a number of factors that we’re looking at, but it helps to really break it down into that supply and demand side of the equation. Then from there, we can try to estimate what an equilibrium level of housing might be and where we are today relative to that equilibrium.

Dave:
Now, I’ve seen there’s been a lot in the media coverage of Moody’s forecasts and it seems, I’ll just summarize and let you do the detailed analysis, but I’ve seen that on a national scale, Moody’s is predicting year over year price declines in 2023. Can you tell us a little bit more of the details about those predictions?

Cris:
Sure. So we run models, as I mentioned, that look at those supply and demand factors, and we are estimating what the equilibrium or trend housing values should be. What should house prices be if we just considered incomes or rents and look at historic ratios between prices and incomes? So that is a core or fundamental basis of our model. That then defines what the fundamental value is, and we compare that to what values we are currently observing in the housing market.
Right now or during the pandemic, we saw tremendous run up in home prices, about 40% increase from the beginning of 2020 till today. That far outstrips what incomes did during that time. Although we’ve had some nice income growth, it’s nowhere near 40%. So as a result, our calculation leads to the conclusion that most housing markets across the country are indeed overvalued. So of the 400 plus metropolitan areas that we have in the country, we stated that about 80% of them are above their fundamental value.
Now, there’s some measurement error in the models as we know, and you said you’re a data nerds, so you know there’s a lot of volatility in the data. So you don’t want to get overly excited by a market that’s only one or two percent overvalued, right? So you want some threshold or some cutoff that really sticks out. So we tend to look at those markets that are more than 20% overvalued as being once that we might be particularly concerned with, and then we rank order the markets to see which of these metropolitan areas we particularly want to be focused on.
When we do that, what we find is that many of the markets in the South, and particularly in the Mountain West did experience very sharp rises in home prices relative to their incomes, and those would be the ones that are most vulnerable to a double digit type of correction here. So we’re thinking about Boise, Idaho, Phoenix, Arizona, Austin, Texas, some of the major markets, but then particularly concerning to me are some of the second tier or third tier markets as well that might be sitting next to major metropolitan areas that also saw a big run up in prices, and my concern there is that as things turn, they might start to weaken.

James:
So Cris, you were just talking about and I was reading online as well, so Moody has predicted some decline in the market about five to 10 percent over the next 12 to 24 months, but what you were just describing to me is the perfect mixture of what also could be a disaster where cost of housing going up by 40%, cost of money now up about 40% on the mortgage cost and then salaries just haven’t quite kept up with that pace. I know even in the expensive markets like our tech buyers or our tech markets, we saw salaries increase 15 to 20 percent. They made a lot more money on their stock growth than they did anything else, which is now also down.
So it is looking like this perfect mixture of what also could be a disaster as well, not just a five to 10 percent pullback, but it could rapidly bring pricing down. Why are you guys predicting more of a conservative drop rather than a rapid with all these things going on?

Cris:
Yeah, great question. Parallels to the housing crash in the late 2000s are obvious. So what’s different this time are really two key factors. One is demographics, right? So back in the housing crash of 2006, 2009, we had a small Gen X population turning 30 or in their earlier 30s, prime age for home buying. At the same time, we were building over two million units, new housing units per year. So we had the supply-demand imbalance there. We had a lot of flipping and speculation going on.
Today, we don’t have that. We have actually the reverse. We have a very large millennial population that is looking for housing. We have a housing deficit in this country because we haven’t been building over the last decade. By our calculations, we’re about 1.5 million housing units short of where we should be. That’s on top of just what we should be building each year to keep up with population growth.
So you have that underlying demand out there. You have the lack of supply. So the demographics are actually more favorable today. So even as prices start to come down, our expectation is you will have buyers stepping up as prices come back into a more reasonable zone. You’re right that the interest rates are a big weight in terms of affordability, right? So that is the reason why we do expect to see house prices come down, housing demand coming down over the next couple of years to begin with, but to really cause more of that snowball effect you’re referring to, you’d really need to have labor market declines, so higher unemployment, people actually losing jobs, losing their incomes, and unable to make their mortgage payments.
The other key difference, of course, today is that the lending standards for mortgages have been much, much stronger than they were back in ’06 and ’09, right? Back then, we had very loose lending. People didn’t have to put a whole lot of money down on their properties. Today, home buyers are much more qualified. They don’t have these crazy option ARMs or negatively amort using ARMs or adjustable rate mortgages, and they have much more equity in their homes.
So even as prices coming down, most home buyers are still going to be in a positive equity situation, and the fact that they have been able to lock in very low interest rates, record low interest rates over the last couple of years means that they are more likely to fight for their homes, right? They’re not going to let those homes go quite so easily into foreclosure, right? They’re going to do what they can to avoid a default because the consequence is going back into the market and then facing a much higher interest rate, facing much higher rent prices as well. So for those reasons, expect to see the market cooling here. We allow time for the market to catch up in terms of incomes and rebalance the price to rent or price to income ratios.

Dave:
Yeah. Cris, I saw something the other day, just to reiterate one of your points and all those are very helpful, thank you, but just about the adjustable rate mortgages and how that got us into a big part of the mass in 2008, that back then 40% of mortgages were adjustable rate and now it’s less than 2%. So that just shows you the scale and difference of how lending standards have changed.

Cris:
Yeah, and even the adjustable rates we have today, the adjustable rate mortgages are quite different than what we had back then, right? Today, we do have adjustable rate mortgages. You can get a five one ARM or 10 one ARM, but even those have very limited or more limited risk than the adjustable rate mortgages we had back then, which may have been adjusting every month or every six months, may have had negative equity. So very different situation.

Dave:
Okay. So I have this question I’ve been longing to ask someone and it seems like you’re the person for the job. So you said that the basis of your model is that you derive this intrinsic value in home prices based off income and home prices, and traditionally what people pay. That makes sense, but in other countries, like if you look at Canada or Australia or New Zealand over the last couple of years, that dynamic has just fundamentally changed, right? The proportion that people are paying for their home out of their total income has gone up and up and up, and we’re probably seeing corrections in those markets too, but I’m just curious, is there risk of that happening? Is there maybe a chance that the United States is heading in this way where people are just going to have to pay way more for housing than they have historically?

Cris:
Yeah. I think it goes to certainly the demographics and the demand side of the issue, right? So from my viewpoint, we do have this housing deficit. We have much more underlying demand than we have supply. So you obviously see the homeowners and you see the renters out there and you get a sense of housing market from those populations, and you can look at the home ownership rate to see what that looks like in terms of are people able to buy homes, are we seeing home ownership rates increase.
What gets unnoticed is that whole population of young adults in particular who are unable to access the housing market in any way, they’re not able to rent because the rents are too high relative to their income, they’re not able to buy because of the affordability issues, and so they’re living with parents or they’re living with roommates. So they fall out of our housing statistics. We don’t really have visibility into them.
So at the moment, given the demographics, yes, I would agree with you that there’s so much demand out there that is forcing individuals who want to join the game, want to start their own households to face even higher house prices because of the supply issues. If you look ahead, and I think we’ll get to this a little bit later, the demographics are forecasted to change here, right? We have falling birth rates, immigration rates remain low. So this dynamic could change very rapidly as you go 10, 15 or 20 years out.
So I don’t expect to see these types of constraints in terms of how much households are spending on their housing costs to persist forever. I don’t think they can. I don’t think that’s sustainable. So over time, it will adjust as those other demographics adjust, but in the meantime, you certainly can have a bit of a pressure on those households and see that they’re spending a lot on housing.

James:
Well, yeah, because there’s no other logic behind this that you can come up with. If you look at certain parts like Vancouver, Canada, it’s just very expensive real estate, very expensive housing. Right now, even with what we’ve seen in the market pullback, we’ve seen about a 20% drop off of the peak, peak pricing, not medium home, but the highest comparables that we were seeing. I was even talking to Dave about this earlier is that you would think it would have more impact with the cost of money. If the cost of money’s up 40% and we’ve just seen this, I would almost think that the housing price would come back even further, almost drop as fast as it appreciated over the last 24 months. We’re seeing a pullback, we’re not seeing that free fall, and that’s where I’m like, “Yeah, we might just be in an expensive housing, but housing might just be a privilege going down the road.” You’re going to have to expend a lot of money and that’s going to go into a lot of your earned income. It’s going to be going towards housing costs, but that’s obviously not the healthiest housing economy in general. So how do you even fix that before it just goes off? I think once it water falls over, it’s going to be stuck there for a while.

Cris:
Yeah, I’d agree with that. So again, our forecast does have the prices coming in, but basically going flat for the foreseeable future until incomes can approach the type of house price to income ratio that we’ve had historically. Supply, though, is the real barrier here, right? Obviously, rates matter and higher costs do restrict the opportunities for folks to actually purchase homes, but without more supply of housing, this is going to persist, right? You’re still going to have too few homes and too many people looking for housing. So that involves changing zoning laws. That involves changing other regulations, things that are very difficult to do because of the NIMBYism or the other trends that we’ve seen.
Another fact I can throw out there in terms of a Vancouver mark is also the reduction now of foreign home buyers given the strength that the dollar, in particular you are seeing that foreign home buyers no longer find the US or Canada particularly attractive for them to invest in. So that actually could have some beneficial effect for the home buyer, the domestic home buyers who might be looking to buy. So that could have some offsetting impact, but, yeah, that is a delicate equation there in terms of how that dynamic plays out over time.

Dave:
Yeah. Cris, I really want to get into that supply issue and some of the long-term things, but before we get off the short-term forecast, you had mentioned Mountain West markets, Boise, Phoenix, you named a few. What is the downside forecast for that? How bad do you think it could get in some of those markets? Then on the other side, are there any markets that you think will keep growing even in this environment?

Cris:
Yeah, great question. So I think 15, 20 percent down from the peak. So peak was probably second quarter of 2022 for most markets or maybe a little bit of variation there, but if you tell me Boise is going to be down 15, 20 percent over the next couple of years, I wouldn’t debate that, but that’s off of a 40, 50 percent increase, right? So for the homeowner who’s been there a while or the homeowner who tends to stay there a while, this isn’t catastrophe, right? This is something they, to a large extent, could ride out. It’s the buyer who bought recently, bought at the peak, that’s the one, of course, that’s most at risk. So there is the chance that things could snowball a bit, but by and large, there’s a lot of equity that folks have that we have to burn through until we really start to do damage to those markets.

Dave:
So the second question there, are there markets that are going to grow? I think we saw some in maybe the Midwest or Northeast. Do you think, maybe not even grow, but at least be a little bit insulated from downside risk?

Cris:
Yeah. There certainly are markets that didn’t experience quite the run up that others did in the Northeast and the Midwest. There was a lot of migration out of those areas into the South and to the Mountain West states that drove the prices up. So there are values there and certainly, again, for these millennials or younger home owners or home buyers looking for a place that there are more opportunities perhaps in some of those areas than what they face in those more competitive markets, and with remote work being an option for more and more people that I would expect to see some stabilization in those markets, even potentially some growth for the ones that really didn’t experience much of a rise during the pandemic.

James:
So is that how you guys came up with most of those metrics was … I saw Albany, Georgia, Columbus, Georgia, where areas that you guys predicted would it actually have 5% growth in those markets. The basis behind that is based on housing prices and income, right? Those are the two main factors that they’re looking at, and because those markets didn’t skyrocket in the second quarter, that’s why you’re predicting more steady growth. The ones that basically didn’t hockey stick up in that second quarter are the ones that are going to be the healthiest.

Cris:
Yeah, for the most part. There are some markets that actually did experience a lot of price appreciation that we don’t have as being at high risk because they maybe were dominated by individuals who brought a lot of wealth with them, right? So you did have folks moving out of the Northeast accelerating the retirement from wealthier individuals moving to Naples, Florida, for example, and prices in Naples really did go up or Miami. They went up a lot, but they also brought a lot of income with them or a lot of other wealth that might offset the risk that they would have to or be forced to sell in any type of downturn. So you want to be a little cautious to just jump on the markets that saw a lot of house price increase and assume that they’re going to reverse. There are some other factors out there that might offset those risks.

Dave:
All right. Well, that’s super helpful, Cris. Hopefully, everyone listening to this appreciates that. It’s really, really good, informed analysis of what might happen in the market over the next couple year or two, but real estate investing is a long-term game for most people and we’d love to pick your brain about what’s going on long term. I mean, you said it very succinctly and I loved it. You just basically said we need more supply. That’s the problem with affordability in the United States. That seems to be causing a higher, maybe I’m wrong here, but it seems like there’s a higher degree in pricing variance than we’ve seen traditionally in the housing market. Can you just tell us a little bit more about the nature of the housing supply shortage in the US and then James and I will ask you a hundred more questions?

Cris:
Yeah, absolutely. So there’s definitely a shortage, particularly at the lower end of the market, and we do break out home prices in these different markets by tier, right? So we’ll group each market into low, medium, high tiers by price in that market. What we’ve seen is that prices have risen the fastest at the lower tier. There’s lots of demand in that lower tier. People are looking for starter homes, looking for homes that they can then maybe live in for a while and turn into investment properties, right? So there’s a lot of demand in that particular segment, much more than the available supply.
So prices have gone up across the board. I want to say that high tier markets or high tier homes aren’t rising as well. They just haven’t risen as fast as the lower tier, and that’s very much a consequence of the fact that you do have so many people looking to enter the housing market.
You do have regional variation as well when we think about the affordability of housing where people are wanting to live or choosing to live, right? So there is quite a variation in terms of affordable housing in terms of the demand. Then on the supply side, there are certainly land constraints that will drive up home prices as well and limit the amount of affordable housing that you might be able to build in a San Francisco or in the Bay area versus areas like a Dallas, which until recently at least have a lot of land to build on, but now are actually facing constraints in terms of travel time and other considerations that buyers may have. If you have to commute to work still and you’re living two, three hours away, that’s not going to work either.

Dave:
It’s not commuting, that’s traveling. Yeah. So that’s fascinating. So you mentioned at the top of the show some of the issues that are contributing to this, but I’d love to talk about a few of them. One of them is this idea of NIMBYism, which is not in my backyard, what it stands for and is this phenomenon where people always speculate that they want more housing but they don’t want it built near them because that would add more supply in their neighborhood or maybe they don’t want multifamily units in a single family neighborhood, something like that. Can you just talk about that phenomenon and how that specific issue is contributing to the housing shortage?

Cris:
Yeah, it’s pretty interesting, right? What I find particularly interesting is that it seems to cut across the political divide, right? You ask folks on the left, “You want more housing?” “Of course, we want more housing. Housing is right and everyone needs a place to live. We want more housing.”
“Okay. How about we build it? There’s a nice lot not too far away from you. We’d like to put a multifamily complex there. We need to achieve density. That’s one of the ways we can lower housing costs as well or build up a lot of housing units in a short period of time.”
“Oh, well, well, wait. Wait, well, no, there’s traffic congestion issues or there’s a million different reasons why we want more housing but we don’t want it near us.”
The same talk does apply on the right as well. The argument typically given over on that side are, “Well, everyone should have a right to do with their property what they wish then.” So there’s property rights issues, and yet then there’s still this concern about traffic and congestion, “oh, well, maybe we do need some zoning and restricting things.” So it’s very difficult when we have local control of communities that are deciding on their own zoning laws to then impose or change the system, right? There are ingrained interests, right?
If you’re already in the club, if you’re already a homeowner, it is in your interest in some sense to keep restricting the supply that does drive the price of your individual property upward. So it’s a very difficult situation to get around. There are a few states now that are challenging or have introduced some relaxation on zoning and that will help, but even those will take some time, and even though you might have the right to build multiple units on your property today in some jurisdictions, it’s still maybe difficult to actually execute on that option in a cost effective way. So it’s not a short-term solution. It is part of the solution, but it’s not something that gets us there rapidly.

James:
Yeah, and that’s actually been a struggle for us in the local Seattle market is we had a lot of upzoning over the last 24 to 36 months, where they actually allow you to expedite your permits to put in affordable housing or detach ADUs and DADUs, and what they’ve gone with the zoning, they want no more McMansions. They actually shrunk the FAR ratio, the floor air ratio coverage or floor area ration coverage, and they’ve done that because they don’t want these big houses getting built and they want a bunch of smaller properties and more affordable housing, but the main issue is the cost to build is extremely expensive because the units are so small and you still have kitchens, you still have bathrooms, and the core costs.
So there was this big fad of these things getting built throughout all of Seattle for 18 month period, and now the brakes have been hit because the cost. That’s the problem is they’ve upzoned it, but they haven’t thought of it all the way through because the replacement cost is still so high you can’t really make it work right now in today’s markets with the current rates and the current pricing.
So we actually did see this oversupply and we have seen a little bit of pushback. A lot of the people in Seattle, they wanted the affordable housing, but now with all these little detached ADUs throughout, it does affect the neighborhood profile. It affects how the neighborhood feels in the character, and then the parking and the traffic is an issue. These are things that I think it was working well in some markets for a two-year period. Now, it’s like, “Here, here’s this pause. We need to rethink a couple things through.”
Mostly, I think that inventory’s going to stay lower though just because the cost to build is too high. It was costing us. We build town homes in Seattle for around $300 a foot start to finish, and the ADUs and the DADUs or the cottages that you could build were costing us nearly $400 a foot because they’re just so small. So why would you build them at that point? It just didn’t make any mathematical sense, and then that’s caused the dirt to come down quite a bit over the last two months.
It’s like they’ve started to figure out the affordable housing, but it’s like they haven’t figured out how to make it affordable. So it’s just the pricing is so high on these things. It didn’t fix the issue. I think the only way to really fix it is, to be honest, the government’s probably going to have to subsidize building costs a little bit on those. If they really want affordable housing, they’re going to have to keep that number down because it’s causing pricing to be up 20% across the board.

Cris:
Yeah. Well, one problem in housing in general is just the haphazard nature of the rules and regulations, right? It’s not that we plan these things in a very systematic or well-thought out way. It’s reacting, right? We make a change here. We don’t fully think through all the consequences. Maybe we can get there is a fad or a trend that starts in one area, but now all of a sudden we do have congestion and all these concerns of the NIMBYs do have some legitimacy. So how do we think through those in a more constructive manner?
You’re right. The builders, they have a profit motive, obviously. So even to the extent that they want to build more affordable and they’re onboard with building more affordable housing, they face challenges, and when it comes to building costs, availability of labor, so it’s a shifting market from that perspective as well.

James:
Yeah, and going to your point, the inefficiencies of the city, the debt cost is actually one of the worst costs of the whole thing because it takes so long to get permits with the pandemic and supply chain. I mean, labor shortages, plans, permits, everything take 30% longer than it used to. So the debt cost too, so unless they can figure out how to build that faster and cheaper, it’s not a solution that’s really working in today’s market.

Cris:
Yeah. I would think that a shorter term play could be to focus a bit more on all the vacant housing that is out there. Now, there are millions of vacant homes that are not used even seasonally or occasionally. They’re just in need of repair. They need some attention to be brought into active use, but they do tend to be scattered, right? So along the same lines of, “Okay. It’s great we can build accessory dwelling units,” but that’s not the same as open tracked development, right? The costs are much higher because they’re one-offs, right? It’s one unit here, one unit there. So there is an opportunity, I think, to rehabilitate vacant homes and bring them online a bit faster because they don’t have all those permitting restrictions. The home already exists, right? Just needs to be fixed up, but I think that only happens with some type of support to kickstart the process as well.
An individual is going to face a lot of challenges. If they want to fix up their home, bring it back in the market, they may not be able to capture the full value in terms of the market rent until all the other properties around them are also reaching the same level of amenities or building quality. So I think you do need to see some government support out there to provide the incentives for the builders to either fix homes or build new homes and provide that additional housing. So I think there are other solutions that we can come up with here beyond just trying to find another place to build and facing all the permitting and regulations that you mentioned.

Dave:
Are there any other solutions? I know you’re not a politician or a policy firm necessarily, but are there any other proposals or ideas that you think could help alleviate building costs and bring more supply online?

Cris:
Well, now, there’s this whole idea of office conversions, right? So now, we have another imbalance caused by the pandemic, retail and office. We have too much retail space, too much office space. Should be converting that. That’s, I think, a lot of analysts say, “Oh, it’s obvious, right? It seems like a coincidence of wants, right? You have these empty office buildings that are getting underutilized and you still have a lot of need for housing, right? Why not just convert them over?” That’s a promising solution, but as we know when we talk to builders, it’s not that easy, right? The footprints of buildings are quite different. The location of office buildings may not be zoned for residential. So you have, again, some regulatory or zoning issues.
So I think there is opportunity there to do some of these conversions, but that, again, is going to be a slow process. It probably needs to happen, right? We don’t want empty billings sitting vacant all over the place. So there is economic value to them, but no, I don’t see any quick fix. A lot of the proposals that have been put forward really are focused on the demand side, right? They’re looking to bring down the cost of financing, and that’s all good, provide more opportunity, open up the credit box. That’s good. We need to focus on those opportunities as well, but until we fix the supply issue, I don’t see that we’ll really address the needs of all the people who want to start homes or start households and buy homes.

Dave:
Yes. I’m so glad you said that because I agree. Short-term demand side alleviation can help and people need housing. We need short-term stuff, but the only solution is more supply. I just don’t understand how. It seems like not even in the either side, political discourse, people are talking about long-term housing issues and how it’s going to be addressed over 10 or 20 years.

Cris:
Well, so that gets to long term if you look beyond the next 10. So next 10 years are going to continue to be a struggle because you do have this millennial population that is the largest generation, in their early 30s, looking to buy homes. They’re delaying those home purchases because they can’t afford it, but they’re going to continue to want to purchase homes over this period. At some point, they will start to age out, right? At the same time, we have baby boomers, their parents, who at the moment are choosing to age in place and they even have two, three properties, a vacational, maybe investment property as well. So they’re actually soaking up some of the demand for housing as well.
Well, eventually, they’re going to be downsizing as well, either by choice or as they move on, right? Then you’re going to have more supply coming online from them. So there is a potential here for the verse problem to occur in terms of oversupply of housing, I should say, 20 years from now. So as the population ages, as the birth rates come down, if we don’t change our immigration policies, we could be in a position at some point where actually you have too many houses, not too many houses. It’s likely that we have houses in places that people won’t want to live. So I always look to Europe as my guidepost or I look to Italy as a good idea of where the future is. You have this aging population.

Dave:
The $1 houses?

Cris:
Yeah. So very possible that you will have some areas of the US where people will no longer want to live. It won’t be cost effective for them to live there, so you could have that phenomena, and perhaps even more importantly, you might have housing structures that are incompatible with the demand, right? So we have these five-bedroom, six-bedroom homes, but in the future we’re going to have even more single person households or one child, two child households. So we might not need those types of structures. So how do we then redesign or redeploy that housing as well? So when you think about how does this housing deficit get resolved, well, it will resolve itself to some extent because of the demographics, but it still might not be efficient use of all the housing stock we have once we get there.

James:
There’s going to be a lot of house hacking going on where people are just renting out these big mansions room by room.

Dave:
Where you’re just living in by yourself, just partying, staying in a different bedroom every other week. Well, to your point, Cris, I was joking, but in Italy, there is a dollar, they do offer these incentives to people to move where there’s housing supply and no one wants to live. Obviously, it feels like we’re very far away from that in the US, but to your point, with a declining population, that does seem like where we’re heading unless something changes in terms of population or lower construction rates or something like that.

Cris:
Yeah. So I would assume that the construction rates will adjust if that plays out. So it’s really the demographic story, the immigration. If birth rates all of a sudden start to pick up, then that’s maybe a different story, but we don’t see those trends, right? Even on the immigration front, either from domestic policies, it doesn’t look like we’re changing anything, but then we may even miss the boat. Other countries are experiencing the same type of population slow downs or declines. So there may not be as many immigrants globally that are available or they may choose to go to other countries, go to Canada. Other countries may soak up some of that immigration as well. So I do see a slow down certainly as we start to look at 2040 or 2050, start to go out aways. In our forecast, we have construction coming down as household formations are coming down as well.

James:
If you guys are predicting that, as demographics population shrinks, that there’s going to be oversupply of housing or affordable housing for people to actually purchase, there’s still going to be … What about the rental market and the apartment market? Do you feel like there’s going to … We’ve seen a rapid amount of rent growth too over the last 24 months. Do you guys feel that there’s going to be oversupply in that space too or because of the need for smaller households, that’s going to be in high demand and there could be higher rent growth on those areas because they don’t need the three-bedroom house, they just want a one-bedroom apartment, is that going to be where you think there still could be a lot of growth over the next 10 to 20 years because that’s just where the demand is, small living, affordable costs instead of buying? Is that something that you guys have forecasted out or looked at on the smaller apartment scale? Is that where the major growth’s going to be?

Cris:
Yeah, I think so.

James:
Because there has to be growth somewhere.

Cris:
Right, right, no, and the other thing is these demographic trends, right? they play out over decades, right? It’s not something that you’ll see very obviously, right? You’ll see things slowing perhaps, but you also have the cyclical volatility in the economy. So you might not actually recognize it year to year if you’re looking at things. Next year, it could very well be an up year when it comes to construction if things were to turn around, right? There is still this housing deficit that I mentioned. So I think short-term, multifamily apartments, clearly, there’s a lot of demand. So the lack of affordability and home buying does mean that you will have more households renting, looking for rentals, but even there at some point, as you mentioned, you do have these double digit rent increases over the last couple of years and affordability is being hit hard there too as well.
So I don’t expect to see those rent trends continue at this pace, but I do expect to see the demand for rentals hold up better than the demand for purchases in this current environment, but there will be demand destruction, right? You have households that would’ve been formed if they could that just won’t because it’s just too expensive to either buy or rent. So I do expect to see that rental market hold up reasonably well. I don’t think we should count on those double digit type of rent growth rates coming back anytime soon. I think that was a unique situation when it comes to the pandemic, but going forward, I would expect to see that demand, certainly in those particular markets where people want to live, continuing for the foreseeable future versus building those larger luxury single family homes.

James:
The McMansions are over.

Dave:
Yeah, and maybe so. We’ll see. People really like them, so we’ll see.

James:
I’ve seen about the affordable housing that actually, this is a sidebar, but in California, they outlawed the big mansions in some areas. So now, they’re doing McMansion basements-

Cris:
I saw that as well.

James:
… because you’re not going above ground, so you’re allowed to do that. People have pools and gyms and they’re like, “All right. Well, you won’t let us do it above ground, so we’ll just do it below ground,” and these things are massive. It’s like a whole city underground. So I think no matter what, there’s always going to be a demand for McMansions as well.

Dave:
The amount of people will find a way around any rule never ceases to amaze me. It’s just like they will figure out the way to do it if they want to do it and still stick to this letter of the law.

James:
I mean, it is pretty cool.

Dave:
Yeah, a basement pool, it just sounds weird. All right. Well, Cris, thank you so much for being here. This has been super helpful. I have a whole line of questioning. Maybe you can come back sometime. I’d love to talk more about not even just housing, but the economic implications of declining population because I think that is a big juicy topic we’d love to talk about again, but this was phenomenal. Super helpful for myself and I’m sure James and for all of our listeners. So thank you so much for being here. If anyone wants to connect with you or follow up, where can they do that?

Cris:
They can follow up with an email, [email protected] or I’m on LinkedIn or Twitter. MiddleWayEcon is my Twitter handle.

Dave:
All right. Thanks again, Cris.

Cris:
Thank you. Thank you.

Dave:
All right. We got to debrief about that, but did your lights go out during the middle of that recording?

James:
It did. All of a sudden, it got into mood lighting. All of a sudden I’m like, “There we go.”

Dave:
Yeah. It looks like there’s like a spotlight on you right now if you’re not-

James:
I’m looking pretty oily right now, actually, but-

Dave:
Well, you got a beam right in your face. I mean, yeah, if you’re not watching this on YouTube, right in the middle we had a little snake bit recording here. We were having a lot of technical issues and we finally resorted them and then James’s light went out. I was like, “What the hell is going on? Why is everything breaking right now?”

James:
It just auto turned off. As we’re doing the recording, I was like, “Did anybody notice that?” Obviously-

Dave:
I was messaging Kailyn about it. It must be a full moon or something today. I don’t know what’s going on.

James:
Yeah. That is a first.

Dave:
Anyway, that was awesome. I mean, that was super interesting. I’m curious what your main takeaways were.

James:
My main takeaway was I’ve always thought real estate is this super safe investment over a 20-year period and it’s really actually making me double fit, not that I do believe in real estate and it’s always an asset you want to own, but going forward, just with the demographics and how we ended it, and I definitely want more information about this because where you buy and how you buy today can make a big, big difference down the road for you. Now, I am glad we’ve transitioned out a lot of a single family into apartments over the last five years because the demand’s going to be there.

Dave:
Yeah. It was really interesting just the timeline and it makes sense, right? We’re probably going to see a pullback over the next year or two, but the 10-year horizon, just based on demographics alone, pretty encouraging for the housing market as a whole, but beyond that remains a question, right? Once the millennial demand is done and we get to Gen Z, which is a smaller generation and with declining birth rates and declining immigration rates, that could potentially lead to less demand, but like we said, that doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be demand because we’re at a shortage right now. So it’s something I think we need to look at more, right? Is the declining demand just going to reach equilibrium and then we’ll actually be in a better place or is there a potential that prices or demand could fall so much that we actually get in the opposite where we have too much housing? We’ll have to look more into that over the next couple of years, but luckily, we’ve got five to 10 years to figure that out.

James:
Yeah. We got some breathing room, and that’s why it’s so important to really watch these trends over into the next. We just came out of the craziest two-year run and I think the data’s all messed up everywhere, to be honest. It’s really paying attention over the next 24 months of what’s trending is going to make a big difference in how you’re going to invest down the road.

Dave:
Absolutely. Well, thank you for joining us, James. For anyone listening, we appreciate it. Just a couple of things. First and foremost, if you like this show, I think you will because this show was awesome, I love talking to Cris, share this. We would really appreciate if you share these episodes with your friends or if you have people who are freaking out about the housing market, want to know what’s going on. This is a great episode. Share it with them. Help inform other people in the investing or home buying communities about what’s going on in the market, and give us a review if you liked it. If you have any feedback about this show or thoughts, you can message me. I’m on Instagram, @TheDataDeli. James, where can people find you?

James:
Best way to get ahold of me is on Instagram, @JDainFlips.

Dave:
All right. Sweet. James. Thank you so much. Appreciate your time today, and thank you all for listening. We’ll see you next time for On The Market.
On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer and Kailyn Bennett, produced by Kailyn Bennett, editing by Joel Esparza and Onyx Media, copywriting by Nate Weintraub, and a very special thanks to the entire BiggerPockets team. The content on the show On The Market are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions, and investment strategies.

 

 

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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Australian borrowers in good shape to weather higher interest rates


Retail customers are going into an uncertain period in 'very robust shape,' says ANZ

Many Australian borrowers are ahead on their mortgage repayments, and this should cushion them from a hard landing as interest rates rise, according to Shayne Elliott, chief executive officer at major Australian bank, ANZ. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked the official cash rate six times in a row this year to 2.6%, forcing up mortgage rates from lows of around 2% to about 5% to 6%. The housing sector in Australia is set to bear the brunt of higher interest rates as the central bank fights inflation.

Elliot told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday that many borrowers would be able to weather these changes, citing that about 70% of ANZ’s customers with variable rates had accelerated repayments. That would lower cash-flow pressures on borrowers as rates rise.

“As interest rates fell over the last 10 to 20 years, what people did is they used their savings to get ahead on their repayments,” Elliot said. 

“As of today, 70% of our customers are ahead on their home loan repayments and of that 70%, a half of them are more than two years ahead.”

“As interest rates rise for many of those customers nothing changes. Why? They are reducing the amount of time they are ahead on their repayments. Customers are in pretty good shape.”

Delinquency rates will rise over the next year due to interest rate increases, cost-of-living strains and falling property prices.

But for those with fixed rate mortgages, they could face some stress when their mortgage repayments surge in the coming years after their fixed terms end. Even then, most people should be able to cope given that banks in Australia had been buffering mortgage applications by 3%, Elliot added.

In 2019, the Australian financial regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, told banks to apply a loan “serviceability buffer” of at least 2.5 percentage points before it rose to 3 percentage points in 2021.

It has implemented a 2% buffer since 2014 as part of its efforts to manage risks, such as containing a runaway housing market benefitting from historically low interest rates at the time as well as high levels of household debt. Home loans made up a large chunk of banks’ lending.

Mortgage rate increases for many borrowers, however, were edging closer to the buffer applied, the RBA said during its monetary policy meeting earlier this month.

The central bank noted that high levels of savings during the pandemic and a strong labor market with high incomes mitigated debt serviceability concerns.

“This, along with forbearance for some borrowers, had resulted in low levels of loan arrears,” the RBA said in its statement. 

Elliot agreed, saying ANZ’s customers are heading into an uncertain time in “very, very robust shape.”

Many Australian borrowers are ahead of their mortgage repayments, and this should cushion them from a hard landing as interest rate rises.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

He said customers are not only increasing their savings and paying down their home loans but also other loans such as credit card loans. Wages of many customers have also kept up with inflation, he added. 

“We’re very confident about our home loan book. The bite is going to be delayed because of all those factors that I talked about,” he said.

“As of today, people who are under stress with home loans that are 90 days past due are beginning to fall.  So we have not yet seen a pickup in distress.”

Moody’s said in a report this week that while delinquencies over the 12 months ended in May dropped in most states in Australia, it predicts that “delinquency rates will rise over the next year due to interest rate increases, cost-of-living strains and falling property prices.”

“Falling house prices will increase the risk of home loan delinquencies and defaults, because a weakening housing market will make it harder for borrowers in financial trouble to sell their properties at high enough prices to repay their debt,” Moody’s said.

According to Moody’s, over the September quarter, house prices declined 6.1% in Sydney, 3.7% in Melbourne and 4.1% on average across Australia.



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Rent Growth Has Peaked—And Could Start Declining


15% ROI”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/large_Extra_large_logo-1.jpg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”SFR, MF & New Builds!”,”body”:”Invest in the best markets to maximize Cash Flow, Appreciation & Equity with a team of professional investors!”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/renttoretirement.com\/”,”linkTitle”:”Contact us to learn more!”,”id”:”60b8f8de7b0c5″,”impressionCount”:”286765″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”161″,”impressionLimit”:”350000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1040″},{“sponsor”:”The Entrust Group”,”description”:”Self-Directed IRAs”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/TEG-Logo-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Spring Into investing”,”body”:”Using your retirement funds. 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SimpliSafe users may even save up to 15%\r\non home insurance.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/simplisafe.com\/pockets?utm_medium=podcast&utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_campa ign=2022_blogpost”,”linkTitle”:”Protect your asset today!”,”id”:”624347af8d01a”,”impressionCount”:”148017″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”104″,”impressionLimit”:”200000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”2222″},{“sponsor”:”Delta Build Services, Inc.”,”description”:”New Construction in SWFL!”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Image-4-14-22-at-11.59-AM.jpg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Build To Rent”,”body”:”Tired of the Money Pits and aging \u201cturnkey\u201d properties? 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Donald Trump opposes New York Attorney General James’ watchdog request


Former U.S. President Donald Trump throws caps as he attends a rally in Warren, Michigan, U.S., October 1, 2022.

Dieu-nalio Chery | Reutersm

Former President Donald Trump and related defendants are opposing New York Attorney General Letitia James’ call for an independent monitor to oversee the Trump Organization’s submission of financial statements to third parties as part of a bombshell fraud lawsuit, according to a new court filing.

James has asked a judge to name a watchdog who would review financial information that the company and defendants give lenders, insurers and accountants pending the outcome of the lawsuit.

The attorney general’s office requested the watchdog as part of a sweeping September lawsuit accusing Trump, three of his adult children, their company and others of a decadelong fraud related to financial statements.

In their court filing Wednesday, Trump’s lawyers said James’ request for an outside monitor for the company is “a politically motivated attempt to nationalize a highly successful private enterprise.” The lawyers argued that it “is precluded under our Constitution and must and should therefore be rejected.”

CNBC Politics

Read more of CNBC’s politics coverage:

James’ suit in Manhattan Supreme Court accuses the former president and the Trump Organization of repeatedly misstating the value of various real estate assets and his net worth on financial statements that were used to obtain loans, insurance policies and tax benefits.

She claims Trump overstated his net worth by billions of dollars, and has asked federal prosecutors in Manhattan and the IRS to investigate him for possible federal crimes. James said evidence obtained during her three-year civil probe of Trump indicated possible crimes of bank fraud and making false statements to financial institutions.

James’ suit seeks about $250 million in penalties.

The Trump defense filing Wednesday flatly rejects her allegations of fraud.

“Even the excerpted and selected transcripts and documents fail to show the Trump Parties have ever even been late on so much as one loan payment over the past decade much less engaged in any actual fraud,” the filing said.

Trump’s lawyers accuse the attorney general of manufacturing “a bill of grievances based on nothing more than a misapplication of standard accounting principles and gross exaggeration of routine valuation differences between counter parties to complex commercial lending transactions,” according to the filing.

The filing said the monitor she requests would possess “staggeringly overbroad” powers because the person would have access to “all of the Trump Parties’ financial records, compelling the Trump Parties to make onerous informational disclosures to the monitor, and grant the monitor operational oversight over the financial affairs of private businesses.”

James’ request “would effectively allow the NYAG to nationalize the Trump business empire,” the lawyers claimed.



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