January 2024

Weekly mortgage demand drops as buyers struggle to find affordable homes


Prospective home buyers look from the balcony of a home for sale during an Open House in a neighborhood in Clarksburg, Maryland on September 3, 2023. 

Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty Images

After rising for several weeks, mortgage demand fell last week as buyers faced increased competition for a limited supply of homes.

Total mortgage application volume dropped 7.2% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

Buyer demand was behind the drop, offsetting a slight increase in refinance demand. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) remained unchanged at 6.78%, with points rising to 0.65 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 11% last week from the previous week and were 20% lower than the same week a year ago.

“Low existing housing supply is limiting options for prospective buyers and is keeping home-price growth elevated, resulting in a one-two punch that continues to constrain home purchase activity,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.

The average loan size for purchase applications has risen for several weeks, hitting $444,100 last week, the largest since May 2022. Lower mortgage rates are putting more pressure on home prices, and are bringing more buyers into the market, increasing competition.

Applications to refinance a home loan increased 2% for the week and were 3% higher than the same week one year ago. There are still very few current homeowners who have loans with interest rates higher than today’s rates, but interest rates are a full percentage point lower than they were in October, so there are some who can benefit.

Mortgage rates have barely moved in the last two weeks, but that could soon change. The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, and while it is not expected to announce any change to its benchmark interest rate now, there is always the opportunity for news.

“If the Fed is to have an impact on mortgage rates [Wednesday], it would only be due to the market’s interpretation of comments pertaining to the future,” noted Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.

Friday’s monthly employment report could also impact markets and swing mortgage rates in either direction depending on what it says about the broader economy.

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From Homeless at 17 to Solving the Affordable Housing Crisis


The affordable housing crisis is an ongoing challenge here in the United States, but this developer has cracked the code in her own backyard—providing more opportunities for low and median-income households without gentrifying their communities. The cherry on top? She’s making a huge profit while doing it.

In 2005, during Hurricane Katrina, Terrica Lynn Smith couldn’t scrounge up a few hundred dollars to evacuate her and her two children from New Orleans. After this traumatic event, Terrica was determined to break the curse of generational poverty and create a better financial future for her family. Little did she know that she would be creating a better life for countless people in her community as well. After seven failed attempts, Terrica passed her real estate exam and started selling homes. She jumped at any opportunity to learn something new, which allowed her to advance from a real estate agent to an investor, and finally, to a developer.

If you want to have a powerful impact with real estate but lack the resources to do it, this episode is for you. Terrica provides the blueprint for delivering affordable housing to your community at a profit. She also shares the best ways to bring value to a real estate investing partnership, how to get bank financing for large developments, and why cultivating the right mindset is so crucial to your success as an investor!

Rob:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show 883. Hey everyone. I’m here with my good friend Henry Washington for a very, very powerful investor story today.

Henry:
Man, that’s right, Rob. We are here talking to Terrica Smith. Terrica is single-handedly solving affordable housing in Louisiana while turning a profit. This is one of the best episodes that I’ve ever been a part of. It is an understatement. Terrica is an investor who started out with nothing in terms of resources, in terms of finances, in terms of understanding what real estate investing is. We hear all the time that affordable housing is this puzzle that no one knows how to solve, and she’s literally doing it right now in her backyard and started at ground zero where a lot of new investors find themselves right now without money and without knowledge. And so if you are in that boat where you know I want to do something extremely powerful with real estate and I just don’t feel like I have the resources to be able to do that, this is the show for you because this is somebody who was in your shoes and is now changing her community and it’s now changing the lives of the people within her community and building wealth while doing it.

Rob:
And she’s solving affordable housing for Louisiana and actually turning a profit, which just makes this whole story all that more inspiring. So you’re going to definitely want to stick around until the very end. I know you’re going to love it. And without further ado, let’s bring in Terrica.
Terrica, to start the show, can you tell us a little bit about your upbringing in New Orleans?

Terrica:
Oh yeah, absolutely. So for those who don’t know, my name is Terrica Lynn Smith. I’m a real estate developer and coaching. So I actually got started in real estate back in 2005, and that was the year of Hurricane Katrina. We were trapped in the city and honestly thought I was going to die. I thought it was the end of the world during that time. And so I had two kids at that particular point in my life and I knew that I did not want to leave them here without a mother. I also didn’t want to lose our lives because we didn’t have any money. So it was a life-changing moment for me being trapped in the city. And I said, “If I can get out this city, then I’m going to work and not rely on the government ever again in my life.”
And that’s what I did. We relocated to a foreign city called Lafayette, Louisiana. I didn’t know nobody, didn’t have no referrals. I had nothing. I started with nothing and I ended up at CENTURY 21, and I got started selling real estate. I think the key point of that though is I didn’t just go get my real estate license. I knew absolutely nothing about real estate at this time. I just knew I was trapped in the city for a few days and I did not want to experience that again. I wanted to be able to fly out the next time a natural disaster happens. And so because I knew that and I knew because I didn’t have no money, I couldn’t leave the city, I was one of those people who was poor in New Orleans at the time. I had to do something to be able to better my life for my children.

Rob:
So you mentioned you didn’t really know much about real estate or anything like that. What were you doing? Tell us a little bit about some of the careers or some of the jobs you had growing up.

Terrica:
Well, I was homeless at 17, so I didn’t really have no career. I didn’t go to college and have no fancy degrees or anything like that. At that point in time in my life, I was working at a temp service during Hurricane Katrina and I would hold stop signs at the construction sites early in the morning to be able to let people know when to stop and slow down and do different things like that. So I absolutely knew nothing about real estate, but before Hurricane Katrina, I actually traveled the road selling magazines going door to door. I would ask people what they did for a living, and these people would always say that they were in real estate. So the term real estate always stuck inside my head because I never knew what it was. I always thought it was buildings. I never knew it was actual dirt.
So after Hurricane Katrina and being trapped in the city, when I realized I needed to find something to be able to make money, I remembered all those people doors I was knocking upon and they lived in these big beautiful homes and they all said they were in real estate. And so for me, that’s why I ended up going into real estate because of the simple fact I was a door knocker and that’s really how I got my start in real estate.

Henry:
I think that’s super cool. There’s a lot of people who get their start in real estate because they, through whatever profession they have, see people closing real estate deals and they end up on that. I’ve talked to people like title agents, they’re closing transactions all day long and they’re all of a sudden they’re like, “I want to be receiving some of these checks. How do I do that?” And then the same thing, people see real estate agents, they know they get commissions and that’s kind of what gets them in. It’s interesting too that you were knocking on doors because as real estate investors, that’s still something we have to do and we’re getting started sometimes.
So I wanted to kind of clarify, you said you were trapped in the city during Hurricane Katrina. I just want to clarify for the audience what you mean by that. You don’t mean trapped in the city in terms of like you couldn’t get out because traffic was bad. You mean you were trapped in the city because you just financially didn’t have any way to leave? Is that what you’re saying?

Terrica:
Right. Both. So when I say trapped in the city, I mean that, one, we did not have no money to be able to leave ahead of time to be able to evacuate when they told us to evacuate. If you don’t have much money and you’re living on welfare, that is a lot of money when you have to up and leave and you have that small amount of income. So not only that, it took us three days to be able to get to a city called Breaux Bridge, Louisiana, which is only two hours away from New Orleans. That’s how bad traffic was, and that’s how long it was taking people to be able to evacuate because people was running out of gas, the gas stations wasn’t opening. So we stayed trapped in the city literally in the same area until we was able to get assistance with the police, the army, and all those different people that came in to help us evacuate. But we literally was trapped in the city.

Henry:
Okay. So essentially, what you’re saying is, because of the conditions and your financial situation, there was no other options for you. And then you kind of put two and two together and said, “I know all these people that have this money are in real estate and I never want to put myself or my family in a position where I can’t get away from trouble like this if I need to due to my own financial circumstances,” so you said “I’m going to get into real estate because of those situations”?

Terrica:
Absolutely. Let me tell you this. They were asking for our city council and all these different people and they were like, “Yo, they flew out already.” So it just planted a seed when I heard that, right? So we asking for help from our leaders, but they not there. They already gone. So it’s like, “Okay, well I don’t want to be here next time something like this happened.” So it just really resonated to know, yo, people really did leave. And if we would’ve had money to be able to leave, we wouldn’t be in this situation. And so it was a big eye open for me.
You never know what you need until you really need it. And at that time, if we had the resources to be able to evacuate… And I’m talking just a few hundred dollars, I’m not talking thousands of dollars. If we had a few extra a hundred dollars, we could have left and evacuated and stayed at a hotel again. For those who don’t know what evacuation is, you got to literally leave your house. You got to go and stay at a hotel room, you got to be able to afford the hotel room. You got to afford the food when going to that. So it’s not just oh, up and leave and go by a cousin or a relative. It’s also counting the cost of that as well.

Rob:
Absolutely. It’s hard. I think it’s hard for anybody to move so you put in any kind of financial constraints or stress and it’s super, super difficult. So thank you so much for sharing that with us, Terrica. I want to move along a little bit in your story because eventually you do end up getting into real estate. Did you know getting into real estate when you were doing this, did you know what it would become? Did you have an idea? Were you like, “This is my way out”? Or were you like, “I’m going to try this and see how it goes”?

Terrica:
Rob, I was poor with a negative bank account, okay? Let me just be clear. I just needed some money at the time. I didn’t join real estate because I was going to be Warren Buffett or Donald Trump. I joined because I needed some zeros in my bank account and I seen people with big houses and it looked like they put zeros in their bank account with real estate. I failed that exam seven times. I could not pass that exam. I did not know what a mortgage was, a lien was, an encroachment, an encumbrance. I knew no real estate terms. So for me to literally know nothing, be the dumbest one in the classroom, asking the most simplest questions to those who got family who’s been owning real estate, it is unheard of, right? So I had no clue that I would be a leading woman in my area, pioneering smart girl. I just didn’t know that. My mind didn’t comprehend that. It comprehended I needed a few more zeros at that time. So I started where I was.

Rob:
Cool. And give us a little bit of clarification. When did you go to real estate school? Give us what was that timeframe relative to Hurricane Katrina? Yeah, give us some context there.

Terrica:
That’s a great question, Rob. So I got started in real estate. So Katrina was in August of ’05. So right after Hurricane Katrina, we got relocated to a place called Lafayette, Louisiana. By December, I was already going to real estate school. I was sitting in the class trying to figure out what the heck real estate was and just trying to figure out how to pass exam. In early ’06, I got my license and I finally passed it. Got my license and I became a real estate agent during that time.

Rob:
Got it. Okay. And you said you took that test a few times?

Terrica:
Seven.

Rob:
Okay, seven times.

Terrica:
Let’s not dismiss that seven, okay?

Rob:
Okay. Okay. I love that by the way. Most people would not do that. So that just honestly just goes to show your tenacity and how much you wanted this. You pass. I’m sure that’s a really big day for you. And you get into your first year of being a real estate agent. What was that like?

Terrica:
I made a whopping $5,000 my first year. I could have made more money working at McDonald’s is what my exact thought was. I’ll never forget that moment. I just knew when I passed that exam hearing… I just knew that I was going to be rich. I just was like, “Oh my gosh. I got the paper that everybody had been getting to get these big houses.” And my first year I was a WOB. I call that walking around broke, okay? I did horrible my first year. But, I didn’t give up. I went back to my roots. I found my niche in real estate. I door knocked for business. You know what I’m saying? I door knocked to sell magazines. I door knocked to get my real estate doors and I went on to be CENTURY 21 Rookie of the Year Top Producing Agent, and then they honored me with the Centurion Award and different things like that. So my second year was a lot better. I did over a million dollars in sales.

Rob:
Wow, okay. Yeah, that’s a big jump.

Henry:
When you said WOB, walking around broke?

Terrica:
Walking around broke. That’s right. I was a WOB.

Henry:
Man, it made me chuckle because I’m like, “I think there’s a few real estate investors online right now look like who look like they got it, but they’re wobbing around too.”

Terrica:
Yeah, that’s it.

Henry:
But no. So you talked a little bit about 5,000 the first year and then the second year, Rookie of The Year, and all these awards. So obviously, a lot went into how you go from one to the other. But you said to yourself, I could have made more working at McDonald’s. What made you stick with this plan that didn’t work like you thought it would in the first year versus just going ahead and saying, “You know what? I’m going to go get a different job.” What drove that decision for you?

Terrica:
So I always tell people this, “I’m street strong. It take a lot to break you, girl, okay?” I’ve been through hell and back. I feel like you literally got to kill me to take me out this game. And so I refuse to go down. I refuse to be defeated. I didn’t get this far just to get this far. And I knew that if I went and took that test seven times and I eventually passed, I can eventually pick up how this is supposed to go into real estate and start making money from it. So I was always very conscious of my mindset and the way I thought about things because the moment I say I’m done with something, the moment I don’t want to do something, I’m done and I’m not doing it. So I had to be very careful not to let those words come out my mouth because I would’ve walked away if I would’ve been like, “Oh, I give up,” or “I quit.”
I made $5,000 this year. This is horrible. But when you see people around you doing 1, 2, 3, 5, $10 million, you’re like, they’re no different than me. And I’ve always told myself that I’m no different than the next person, other than they just kept on going to the next opportunity. If I stop here, I won’t get to my next opportunity. So I think that’s what was different for me.

Henry:
There’s a lot of value in what you just said. There’s a lot of lessons for new investors in what you just said because what you expressed is really the mindset that people need to have when they’re not just approaching real estate, but any new business venture. It ain’t supposed to be easy. It’s not supposed to be easy. The only thing in my opinion that sets apart successful investors from those who haven’t found success yet, it’s not that the successful people found the super secret sauce or super secret bag of money nobody else found or the super secret deal source nobody else found. It’s just that they didn’t quit. They didn’t quit when it got hard. They didn’t quit when they didn’t make any money. They didn’t quit when they spent money and didn’t get a return. They didn’t quit when a tenant destroyed their property. They didn’t quit when the deal fell apart at the closing table. It’s the tenacity.
When people say you have to have the right mindset, I think a lot of the times it kind of just goes in people’s one ear and out the other. There is so much gold in this story already. We’re about to learn how Terrica has used that grit and tenacity to learn how to turn any deal into a yes and build a massive portfolio right after this break.

Rob:
And we’re back. We’re here with Terrica Smith who is sharing her astounding story on how she got into real estate on the heels of one of the hardest times in her life. She committed to real estate hard. She took the real estate exams seven times to get her license. We’re about to see how that tenacity paid off throughout her journey.

Henry:
That’s huge. Not allowing yourself to say, “Hey, this isn’t going to work,” or “Hey, I’m done with this.” Even playing it in your mind can really change the actions that you take, so I love that. I think that’s valuable lessons for people.

Rob:
I mean, I think pretty much what it comes down to is like, we all suck when we get started at something and the really successful people are just willing to be bad at something for a lot longer. And that’s really the big difference in this world. I think people look around at real estate investors and they say, “Oh, they’re all smarter than me.” But it’s like, what are the chances that every single successful real estate investors actually smarter than you? And it’s like zero. They’re all just regular people that who are willing to be bad at something for a long time until they’re good.
Terrica, I don’t want to gloss over this whole thing. I mean, you said the first year you made 5,000 bucks. It sounds like this is rough math here, but that means you sold roughly 150K worth of homes that first year. Then the second year you said you did about a million dollars in sales, which rough math here would say you almost 10X your revenue or your closed sales. So what was that? What happened? What was the big moment there that was like, “Oh, okay, I’m just going to 10X the amount of output that I’m doing this year.”

Terrica:
I’ve always been big on research and education. I have self-taught myself a lot of things. Literally, it’s by giving myself access to information. And I remember the big change for me was buying this CD. It was like a comeback CD. It was literally being able to get over every single objection that a seller and/or a buyer would face you with. I would listen to that. It was like how I read my Bible from sunup to sundown. Soon as I get in the car, I get out the car. If I’m in the shower, I have the cassette playing in the bathroom. I’m constantly doing it and I’m constantly role playing. So now when I get on the phone, I need enough tenacity to be able to get prepared for these notes I’m about to get, because I already know Ms. Jones is about to tell me no. I already know I’m about to get 10 of them nos, right? So I got to prepare myself to be able to get to the yes with all of those notes. And for me, once I had that mindset, I was like, “Yo, that’s really cool.”
The second thing was when I door knocked, I ended up getting my own subdivision from a lady because she was impressed with me door knocking. She wanted to know why should she go with me versus going with the top agent that she was going to go with, and I said, “Well, I can tell you. Number one, I have time, okay? I got way more time than anybody. I’m out here knocking on doors trying to get your business. Okay, your realtor’s not knocking on doors. That’s the first thing. The second thing is, you’re not going to be a number to me. You’re going to remember me.” So I made my relationships more personable with the sellers. I treated them as if they were actually a friend of mine and that their property was the only property in the world for me, and it landed me my first subdivision. So-

Rob:
Hold on really fast, Terrica. What do you mean by that? When you say it landed you your own subdivision, is it one of those subdivisions where a lot of them are pre-built and you’re just the exclusive agent?

Terrica:
Yes. At that point in time, yes. This was a lady who she had, I think it was like 60 lots or something like that. And so she literally allowed me to be the listing agent for that community. Every single property she built, I was the listing agent to be able to sell those homes back there.

Rob:
Wow.

Henry:
Whoa.

Terrica:
Yes. So that went for me. And this is important for those that’s on here, that’s in real estate, I went to a foreign place. I knew nobody, I was not a Thibodeau or Recio or a B [inaudible 00:18:52]. I didn’t have a popular last name. I didn’t have no referrals in the pipeline. I literally just started with what I was good at. And some of us have superpowers that we just don’t access, but I think if we start accessing the superpowers that we have, we’ll realize our talents is more than enough.

Henry:
So what a cool… Well, first of all, the story’s amazing, but you knock on the door and you kind of have, this lady kind of gives you your moment, right? She said, “Okay, tell me why you.” There’s not many people that can point to a very specific moment that probably changed their life. But that 30-second elevator pitch moment right there was probably extremely life-changing for you because it seems like, and I’m speculating here, but it sounds like you being the listing agent for this developer probably gave you a lot of insights and education into the other side of the real estate world on the investor side. Is that kind of how you transitioned?

Terrica:
Well, yeah, absolutely. So this is a funny story that goes into this, right? So of course it gave me name recognition in the area. When you have a whole subdivision, of course people are going to see your names. Real estate is its own world, so everybody know everybody in real estate who’s doing something. If you ain’t doing that, nobody know you, right?
Well, long story short, I had started working with investors only. I realized there was a niche for investors that agents wasn’t really working with. And so I would start working with investors. I remember sitting at the closing table with one of my investors, and I literally would do all of the work on these projects for them. Meaning, I would find a property, I would bring the contractors in to fix up the property, I would oversee the contractors, pick out the paint colors. I would do everything, list it, sell it, everything, right? I was sitting at the closing table one day and the attorney gave me the folder, the closing folder, which was supposed to have my commission check in it as a realtor.
Now I should be grateful because I have investors that’s let me come in or whatever, and they’re buying it with me, they’re selling it with me. I should be very grateful. Well, they end up giving me that investor folder. And when I seen those zeros in his folder, I couldn’t unsee what I see. I was like, “Yo.”
Now mind you, I said, “Oh, I’m sitting at the wrong end of the table. I need to be on that end where they’re getting the big zeros and doing the least amount of work.” So I had a conversation with all my investors at that time and I said, “Hey, I’m going to work for you guys, but we’re going to split it 50/50 and I’m not putting up no money. I’m not putting up no money. I’m going to do all the work, I’m going to do everything I’ve been doing, but you got to split it with me 50/50.” I lost all my investors except one. One investor stayed with me. Me and him did about 10 homes following. And then he started telling all his friends about me. And guess what? When his friends came to the table, they knew if they was going to work with me, it was going to be a 50/50 deal and I wasn’t putting up no money.

Rob:
Okay, all right, so let’s go back because I love this. So you’re basically saying, “I want to use OPM. I want to use other people’s money to fund my real estate journey,” I suppose. So you go, you’re a listing agent and you’re starting to talk to investors. And basically you come in, I don’t want to say making demands, but you come in with your terms. You say, “Hey, I want this.” And you had a group, I think you said, of 10 or so investors. Most of them said, “Yeah, those terms don’t work for us. Thanks, but no thanks.” They all left. And then one person was like, “Actually, I’m good with this.” And then that was kind of the beginning of working with someone to fuel the empires of that. Did I hear that correctly?

Terrica:
Yeah. It was way more than 10 investors. I lost all my investors except one. But that one investor went on to do 10 deals with me, and that got the attention with his other friends.

Henry:
And the draw for the investor was you were the workhorse. You were finding them the property, managing the build, the renovation, the contractors. All they had to do was show up and get paid essentially.

Terrica:
That’s it.

Henry:
Okay.

Rob:
I like this. Were you negotiable at all on this or were you like, “This is what I want”?

Henry:
Rob, Rob, have you been on this interview? Do you think she was negotiating?

Terrica:
Rob, let me just tell you something. I mentioned earlier, right? I said, I’m street strong. One thing I know how to do is make it out of a struggle. So if I had to struggle back from the beginning with zero to get to where I’m at, I was willing to do it. And pretty much I did. I only had one buddy that stayed with me. Shout out to him. We still rock together to this day.

Rob:
Well, I ask because most of the time we’re like, “Hey, this is what I want.” And when someone’s like, “No thanks,” it’s always like, “Oh, okay, well, I mean, what do you want? And then maybe I can come down a little bit.” But you didn’t take.

Henry:
I love it. It is sticking to your guns. This guy did 10 deals with you. Of those 10 deals, it was a 50/50 split for you and him, but he didn’t have to do any work. And so you said you did 10 deals, but you guys are still working together now. Is the relationship different? What?

Terrica:
Oh, it’s much different. Yeah, it’s much different because I’m a developer now, so…

Rob:
You make him do the work.

Terrica:
I think I’d impasse him on what he’s comfortable with doing. But yeah, no, we still work. I mean, we still hang out. We go out and eat. We do things like that. But I’m pretty aggressive in this market. I like filet mignon. So that mean I like to eat good in this market. He still does a lot of the fix and flips. And from here at everyone, I feel bored in developments, I go dabble over there. We go make it like old times. But for the most part, we’re just really good friends.

Rob:
Okay. So you keep revealing just massive aspects of your story that I’m like, “Hold on, wait.” So you’re working with these investors, you do the work, you split it 50/50, and then there comes a moment in this, I guess, transition of doing renovations and flips where you’re like, “I want to start developing.” Tell us a little bit about that. What was that moment or that change in your career?

Terrica:
So what happened was-

Henry:
Wait, let me guess. Every transition in her career, it’s because she saw somebody was making more zeros and she said, “I’m going to go figure out how to be better than you at that and get them zeros.”

Terrica:
That’s right. That’s right. So I was at a builders meeting and I was sitting on the UDC board, which is the Urban Development Committee. That’s a committee where all of the builders and developers and everybody like that join together. They give input on ways that they can get different developers to come into the areas and things like that. And so I was sitting there and one builder was talking about the new home he was going to build. Now mind you, I never thought about building new homes. At this point in time I’m just a fix and flipper. He was saying how he was buying lots and he was just putting them up in different communities and I’m like, “Wait, you’re building new homes in older communities? I never even thought of that.”
So I went and partnered with a builder. What that partnership looked like was, I found the lots and I paid for the lots and then I had the builder come in and we would build on those lots together and we would split the profit 50/50. The reason why I did that was because I needed to understand how to build new construction. I knew nothing about it. And being in a fix and flip, depending on the type of home, you’re pretty much rebuilding it anyway. So I knew that I could possibly do it, but I wanted to make sure that I had some type of experience from someone with experience. And so I partnered with a builder. We built four homes in an existing community. We sold those homes before we even finished building them. And I’m like, “Yo, this is some really great money.”
So then I was like, “Okay, if I can do this, then I’m sure I can be a developer.” But I didn’t know how to be a developer until one of my friends at a dinner said, “Hey, I’m putting my grandchildren name on the street sign” and I’m like, “What? You can put people name on the street signs. I didn’t even know that was a thing.” I didn’t know people sit down and have conversations about that, right? It’s about being in the right room and having the right access to the right information you start learning these things. So me being who I am, I’m like, “I want my children name on the street sign too.” So I go and I develop a community, it’s called Madeline Cove, and then I put my son name on the street sign.
Now, I didn’t just become a developer. What I did was I actually worked with the builder. We built a few more properties, and then I eventually ended up in a few more development partnerships with other builders who wanted to be developers. So I was able to witness on the back end that operation, and then I was like, “Okay, I felt confident enough to be able to go do my own development.” And that’s how I was able to start Madeline Cove and put my children name on street signs.

Henry:
First of all, I think you’re just a good storyteller because within these stories, there’s so many great lessons for people if they’re wanting to get into real estate or into development. I think one of the lessons that we’re hearing here is you didn’t just say, “I’m going to go be a developer and jump off the cliff” because there’s a lot of risk in being a developer, right? Especially if you have to go acquire the land and you don’t know what that land has use for or if you can even do what you want to do and the cost of it. There’s so many variables and so much money gets spent with development before a 2X4 is ever put in the ground. And so what you did that was super smart was you said, “I’m going to go partner with somebody who knows how to do this and I’m going to structure it in a way that’s beneficial to that partner and myself so that I get a lesson while I make money.”
I always stress to people, if you’re going to get into something that’s not your bread and butter, there are people who are good at it, and there are ways that you can set yourself up to partner with those people or be successful. You need to bring them the thing that they don’t have. I wanted to do a self-storage deal. I wanted to do one so bad, and I thought the only way I’m going to do a self-storage deal is I got to go find a self-storage deal. Because if I get a self-storage deal, I know I can find a guy who does self-storage to come be a 50/50 partner with me. And that’s exactly how I did my first self-storage deal. I got a lead and it just so happened to be a lead on a self-storage facility that this guy had been trying to market to.
And so once I got the lead, I called him and I was like, “Hey, I think this is a good deal. How do we take it down? And if we do, do you want to be 50/50 partners?” And that ended up netting us our first storage deal. So I think that there’s a valuable lesson there. Find someone who’s doing it and bring them some value and you can get a deal. And then you worked with this developer, you built this relationship, you did a few projects until you felt like, “Okay, I know how to go do this,” and then you went and found your neighborhood to put your family’s name on. Is that what I’m hearing?

Terrica:
That’s absolutely correct.

Henry:
It gives me goosebumps.

Terrica:
Yeah, it’s amazing. So can I ask a little bit about the details of working with the developer? I think you mentioned you found someone, you said, “Hey, let’s split this 50/50.” How does that work? Do they have a fund or do they have a commercial line of credit with the bank and then they fund it all through there and they’re basically on the hook for that commercial loan financially? And then yeah, basically after all that loan is paid back and you make your sale, you’re just splitting profits from there. Is it that easy or is it even more complex than that?

Terrica:
No, it’s not even complex. So I think it all depends on the builder/developer, whatever, whichever route you want to go. For us, we had a relationship with a local bank. So this is how development goes, whenever we find a partial of land and we do the subdivide and we do all of our civil, we are already pre-selling lots. So by the time we get to 50% sold in our community, before we even do shovel, before we even shovel ready, we’re already 50% sold, we go to the bank and we pledge that book of business with the bank.
And they see the LOIs, the letter of commitments we have, letter of intent, but the letter of commitments we have from other builders in the area who has agreed to purchase these lots from us. And then they give us the finance and for the hard costs to be able to get started with the infrastructure. And then of course, you got your lot allocation with the bank where they’re going to have a certain portion that’s due on each lot. Every time you close, you got to pay down your loan on it. And then from there, we’re able to split the profits.
Now how you come in as a partner, for me, I’m adding value is I’m going to do all the city council meetings. I’m going to go to all the civil. Most developers, they want to do that anyway, but if they have somebody that’s going to be in the weeds with them, it’s a great partnership opportunity. And so I’m also going to put in whatever the bank requires for that 20% down. I’m going to come in, I got to bring in my 10% of the portion if I want to be an equal partner in that deal. And that usually looked like me bringing in other investors on the back end of under me creating some type of GPLP situation to be able to get my 10% if it’s a multimillion dollar development.

Rob:
For anybody at home that may not know that is, that’s general partner and limited partner.

Terrica:
Thank you, Rob. Thank you, Rob. Yeah, and so we put those together. And then from there we’re able to go and acquire it and split the profits at the end whenever we sell the property.

Rob:
Very cool. Very cool. Okay. This is really amazing, by the way. I mean, I think you know. This is such a cool story. Obviously, you’re crushing it. You go into the development world. I’d imagine it’s a little competitive. So what was sort of your angle or what was your idea for making your neighborhood different or your subdivision different from some of the competition in New Orleans?

Terrica:
So just so we cleared, this community is in a few hours away from New Orleans. People be trying to dagger you on the internet. But anyways-

Rob:
Yeah, I do know, unfortunately.

Terrica:
Yeah. So I’m big on prevent and gentrification and I’m big on community projects and allowing people that come from situations such as myself, low income, Section 8, affordable housing subsidy. I’m big on catering to that audience. So Rob, I see no competition in my lane. There’s nobody in the United States that can compete. And I say this aggressively. Now, this is national builders. If they want to come on down to this level, I think it’ll be a party for 80% of Americans, right? But there’s nobody building homes less than $200,000 in this marketplace today, but me. So I am okay with making 40,000 to $60,000 on a real estate deal. New construction home, brand new, three bedrooms, two baths. I’m talking a garage. I’m not even putting these people in carports. Granite countertops, energy, fish and windows, architectural shingles. It’s a really nice home that we’re building for the people. There’s nobody who can compete with that.
And so whenever I’m bringing these communities to these neighborhoods, I’m door knocking back to my roots, back to my superpower. If you put me in front of you, Rob, I can sell your furniture back to you when I go to your house. That’s how good I am. I really believe that. So because I know who I am when I go and knock on these people doors and I’m addressing their pain points and I’m letting them know, “I’m not coming in here to push you out your neighborhood. I’m coming in here to include you in your neighborhood. What is it that you would like to see in the neighborhood?”
“Oh, we’ll like to see the violence calm down.”
“Okay, great. How about we create an opportunity where, one, we create some type of recreational activity where kids have a place to go and play.” Maybe we have a bookstore in the area because bookstores don’t go into the hood, period. So maybe I create bookstores that go into these neighborhoods that don’t normally get bookstores. Maybe I create a coffee shop where kids can go sit down, study and want to learn. Maybe I create these environments that these neighborhoods wouldn’t normally see, and now you’re able to address the pain points of what some of these people have.
Another pain point they have is that they don’t feel like people are here now. Their voices are not heard. So I’m like, “Not only do I hear you, I am here physically. I’m from where you from. I come from where you come from.” So I’m not afraid of these gang bangers and all these other people that may scare people in the area. I’m not scared of them. I’ll just look at the drug dealer. I don’t care. I’ll stand up to him, period.
So because I have that tenacity about me and because I’m that hometown girl and because I’m not an outreach developer, people in the community, they rock with me more. We went door to door explaining to everyone what we was doing, passing out flyers, but also just doing neighborhood cookouts, community events, making them know that, “Hey, we’re here for you guys. We want this to be for you.” And my audience, the people who I build home for, the people who I’m selling homes for is the cafeteria workers in the hospital. I’m focused on that median income of anywhere from 30,000 a year to about 60,000 to 70,000 a year. That’s who I’m focused on building homes for, because that’s kind of like what the middle class in the south is making. So if I can focus on providing homeownership to those individuals who’s been working at the same job for 10 to 15 years, then I feel like there’s no competition in my lane, Rob. I hope that answered that question.

Rob:
It did. It absolutely did.

Henry:
I’m just going to be frank. This is why I wanted to have you on here telling this story, because all we hear right now is there’s no affordable housing. There’s no way to build affordable housing. We can’t solve this problem. No one wants to solve this problem. And you’ve essentially laid out a blueprint for how people can solve this problem. So I think what you’re proving is that, yeah, this problem can be solved, right? This problem is being solved. What it’s taking is for somebody to get down and go meet people where they’re at. And I think that’s what sets you apart from everybody else, is nobody else is willing to do that.
And you are building homes and improving communities without displacing the people within that community. And so many times we see people come in and build these beautiful homes and these beautiful neighborhoods and these beautiful amenities, but they’re not for the people in that neighborhood. They price them at a price point where the people in that neighborhood can’t have access to those amenities. And you’re doing the exact opposite. You’re building these beautiful communities, but building it in a way that allows the people within that community to have access, and I want to commend you for that. I think that that’s incredible. More people need to see that it is currently happening and can be done and can be profitable.

Rob:
That’s huge. I think a lot of people get super scared to go into the affordable housing side of things because they think that there’s no money to be made. But you said that these are, I mean, each build is a relatively profitable build?

Terrica:
That’s right. And I don’t use the government money. So a lot of people associate affordable housing with subsidy. I don’t use government money. This is my own money that we use to go to the bank. I’m using traditional funding just like anybody else. So I’m not getting no tax credits, I’m not getting any of that. This is literally us working with Home Depot and working with the Lowe’s around the world and getting corporate discounts and being able to sit down and have these hours at a time meeting to drive the pricing down, price per square foot so we can build them at the price that these people need. And also not just focusing on building homes. It’s more than that, right? There’s a food desert, there’s a healthcare desert.
In the area that I’m building it, if a railroad train is passing, there’s no healthcare. That means you can’t get to an emergency room if a train is passing. So we’re more focused on bringing those type of opportunities back into these communities where these people don’t have transportation. They rely on public transportation. So if we can provide food, housing, and medical, I think that that’s a start to getting our community back to where it needs to be.

Henry:
This is incredibly powerful and there’s a lot more depth to explore here. Now that we’ve uncovered how Terrica is single-handedly tackling the affordability crisis, let’s dive into how she opens up opportunities for other investors in her region. Plus, we’ll discuss the insightful advice she offers to new investors. Right after the break.
One thing you mentioned was that you go door to door and you talk to the people in the community and you ask them what they want. Obviously, I think strategically that helps you know what to build. But are you also doing that because is it a way you get approvals for the things that you need from the city based on what the community members are asking for?

Terrica:
I do it because they be having my back, Henry. I’m not going to lie. People be stealing in these neighborhoods and robbing you blind. You know what I’m saying? So I’d be needing a few people to have my back in this neighborhood. So if they know Terrica is in here and I’m trying to help them, and I’m trying to keep them in an environment that they’re used to, that they’ve been there for generations, but I’m just trying to uplift them and bring them better product in their community, then I need for them to have my back. But also if they have a particular pain point, like for instance, they want children to be able to have a basketball court or things like that, I do put those into my designs because that is so important for them and it helps them know that I’m a woman of my word and that I’m going to be true to what they’re asking. Absolutely.

Henry:
Irritates me, every time I go into a community and I see somebody build a park and not put a basketball court because then I know you ain’t built that park for the people that’s there. You’re trying to push the people that’s there out. If I see a new park go up with a basketball court, I’m like, “That’s for my people right there.”

Terrica:
Yes. Yes.

Henry:
I love it.

Rob:
So let me ask you, Terrica, because you’re building and you’re developing a lot of new homes, what does that do to the equity of existing homes? Does that help them? Does that hurt them? Does it build up the entire community? How does that look from a grander view?

Terrica:
Oh, that’s such a great question, Rob. So where I build that, nobody want to come at right now anyway, unless they want to come bulldoze everything down in the area and then just start fresh. So everything that I do, like where I’m building at, before I started building, home values have not increased in over 10 years. Could you imagine not having appreciation in your house in over 10 years, right?
So we took a property, these homes didn’t sell for more than 30,000 to $40,000 in this area. Now they’re selling at about $85,000 because of our new construction homes that we’re building in proximity. Not only are those home values increasing, now we’re increasing the property value in those areas so you just can’t come and steal it from nobody anymore. You got to pay what it’s worth. And so now with us having homes that’s being built at 175,000, 180,000, everything of under 200,000, now people are like, “Yo.” First, the bank didn’t even want to give us no money, Rob. I didn’t tell you that. They was like, “Yo, nobody’s going to buy over there.” So the first 12 homes we had to build out of our own pocket without the bank. Now they’re throwing money at us because we can’t keep them on the ground. It’s a high need for, it’s a high demand. So that’s why I say we don’t have no competition because nobody can build and do what we’re doing right now. They can, they just don’t want to.

Henry:
And I believe that somebody listening to this is going to be inspired. I believe that you are going to light a fire under somebody who’s going to hear like, “Oh my goodness, this is what I need to be doing for my community. This is what I need to be doing in the community around where I live.” And so what advice or what would you say to those people who are new and they want to implement a strategy like what you’re doing in 2024?

Terrica:
I would say this, get around people who’s doing exactly what you want to do. This is to me… I mean I can be biased, but I think BiggerPockets is the number one podcast in the world on real estate information. I don’t know of another podcast in the world that gives as much resources as this podcast. And it’s not to fluff y’all feathers because I’m on here. It’s true.

Henry:
No, go ahead.

Terrica:
Right. It’s true, right? And so being in rooms like this, listening to conversations like this, going to BiggerPockets and looking at the fix and flip calculator, looking at the multifamily, all of the resources and tools, if there’s an article on anything real estate, I bet you your last dollar, it’s on BiggerPockets. And so, just becoming a sponge with all of the information and the resources that are already given to you, I think people dismiss that. They dismiss all of calculators that you guys give just for free. I’m like, “Yo, I’d be charging for this. I don’t get this away for free.” So you know what I’m saying? So to know that it’s a platform out there that’s a hub of information that’s given this, I would say start there.
The second thing I would say is get a coach or a mentor. If you hear my story, I had to learn it through someone else, and I was okay with paying for what I needed to learn. I was okay with paying to take my real estate exam seven times. So I think it’s important to know that you have to be willing to make some type of investment in yourself to be able to get where you want to go and not be afraid to make that investment. And then I would say the most important thing is to believe in yourself. Everybody’s going to tell you it’s crazy. They’re going to say it don’t make sense. They’re not going to understand it. But I think I go to the bank more than anybody in my family, and now they can appreciate advice from me when it comes out my mouth.

Rob:
That’s amazing. Well, Terrica, we so appreciate this. This is what I always dub as an instant classic. I think a lot of people are going to listen to this and they’re going to be super inspired to take action today. And for anyone that was at home that if you’re in need of some of these tools and resources, you can always head over to biggerpockets.com. There’s a little tab there that’s called tools. If you click on that, it’ll take you to all of our calculators. And if you want to connect with Terrica or Henry or myself, all of our contact information, all of our good stuff for connecting on the internet will be in the show notes at the bottom of this podcast. Thank you again so much, Terrica. We greatly enjoyed having you on.

Terrica:
Thanks for having me.

Rob:
Yes, of course. And we’ll catch everyone on the next episode of BiggerPockets.

 

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From Homeless at 17 to Solving the Affordable Housing Crisis Read More »

How Do I Start Investing When There’s NO Cash Flow?


A few years ago, everyone was wondering how to start investing in real estate, but now the question has switched to “Is it too late?” If you’re stuck on the sidelines but want to get into the real estate investing game, this Seeing Greene is for you.

The man of the people is back for another Seeing Greene-style show! This time, David is answering questions from new investors, experienced investors, and everyone in between. First, we’ll hear from an investor who’s wondering about the value of a low mortgage rate, especially when buying a new build. Is a lower rate worth a higher price? Then, David tells you how to convert your home equity into a new investment property and what you MUST know before getting into commercial real estate. A college student wants to know how to use his $20K savings, and a “late starter” searches for cash flow in a market that’s dry as a desert!

Want to ask David a question? If so, submit your question here so David can answer it on the next episode of Seeing Greene. Hop on the BiggerPockets forums and ask other investors their take, or follow David on Instagram to see when he’s going live so you can jump on a live Q&A and get your question answered on the spot!

David:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show 882. What’s going on everyone? Guess what? We got a green light special for you. If you haven’t seen one of these shows before you’re in for a treat. Today we have a Seeing Greene show where I take questions from you, our listener base, and I answer them for everybody else to hear so we can all build well together. Today’s show is awesome. What to do with $20,000 if you’re in college and looking to start investing? How to get started later in life in a market where finding cash flow is harder than ever? And more in today’s Seeing Greene.
And if you’re new to the show I’m David Greene. I’m a former law enforcement officer who saved up a bunch of money working overtime and working in restaurants, bought some rental properties, then bought a bunch more, learned how to use the Burr method, bought out of state, built a pretty big portfolio, got a real estate license, got a brokers license, run real estate teams, run mortgage companies. I’ve basically been immersed in all things real estate. And my guess is you have to and that’s why you’re here. In these shows, I take my experience in real estate and I share it answering the questions that people have where they’re stuck in their journey or they want to accelerate their success. Our first question comes from Tomi, a frequent question asker, who wants to know about valuing a lower mortgage rate when purchasing a property subject to.

Tomi:
Hey, David, this is Tomi in San Antonio. I was wondering, when do you think it’s a good time to go with the builder’s contract in order to get their incentives on a new build considering our high interest rate environment? I would love your info. Thanks again for all the knowledge. Following you has been awesome. Take care.

David:
And thank you, Tomi. What a great question. And thank you for always asking such good questions on Seeing Greene, we’ve had you on before, you’re always bringing up such good points. And if you would like your great question answered on Seeing Greene head over to biggerpockets.com/david where you can submit it there. And if you like these shows and you’re excited to hear what we are getting into today, please leave us a comment on YouTube and let us know what you think about Seeing Greene.
All right. So Tomi your question was, how much value should I ascribe to a lower interest rate? And I love the way you’re asking that because I can see what your mind’s doing. You’re trying to transpose the deal terms into something that fits on a spreadsheet. Your mind is looking for some clarity here. You’re like all right, normally a house is worth $500,000, and you’re looking at the interest rate as one of the factors that makes it worth a hypothetical $500,000.
So you’re saying, well, if it’s worth $500,000 at 7% and it’s … If it goes down to 5% it should be worth more because you’d theoretically be getting more cash flow. The problem is real estate values are not as easy to predict as what we would like them to be. I mean, if we’re getting honest here, the whole idea of what a house is worth is actually subjective. No one likes subjectivity. So we’ve created this idea of appraisals or different ways to value real estate like cap rates and NOI for commercial property because we want to have some baseline understanding of what a property is worth, but you want to know what it’s really worth, what somebody’s willing to pay for it. And that’s why marketing is so prevalent within the world of real estate because if you can make somebody want something they will pay more for it.
Now, we still do use a comparable sales approach because banks are going to be lending on properties and they want to make sure that you’re not buying it for significantly more than they could sell it to somebody else. Meaning, they want to make sure you don’t value it significantly more than what the rest of the market might. Now here’s the bad news. You can’t say, “Well, I’d pay this much money more for a lower interest rate.” But what you can do is compare the property with the lower interest rate that you could get in a subject to deal to the other properties that are available for you and the prices they’re at. That’s a much better way of looking at it, okay? I have this option, option A, and then I have all these options over here on the market, options B, C, D, and E.
Does that deal with the lower interest rate cash flow significantly more than the deals that have the higher rates? Is it in a market where you think that the value is going to go up significantly? So is the lower rate going to allow you to hold it longer so that it will be worth more later? Or is it a market where values are not going to be going up much, you’re not going to get much appreciation there? So getting the lower rate is going to get you some more cash flow in the beginning but that’s all you’re ever going to get. These are the questions you’re going to have to ask Tomi. Unfortunately, you’re not going to be able to say, for every 1% it goes down I add 5% to the purchase price of what I’m willing to pay for the house.
Here’s my two cents. I don’t think you should pay more for a house because you’re getting a lower interest rate, I think that that’s a marketing tactic that people use. They go in there and they pay more than what they could sell the house to somebody else for and they say, “Well, it was worth it because I got this lower rate,” and they look at it like they’re buying the rate. The problem is you can’t get rid of the house if something goes wrong. You’re not going to be able to sell it to someone else or you’re going to lose money. It’s also a very shortsighted approach that says, “I’m going to pay X amount of money for cash flow.” So if I’m getting a lower rate I’m buying cash flow. The problem is the mortgage rate affects one of the expenses of your home which would be your principal and your interest.
And even though it seems like the biggest expense because it’s the most consistent, it’s really not. The killers of real estate are rarely ever going to be the interest rate, they’re going to be the maintenance, the capital expenditures, the vacancy, the way that you operate the property. One tenant that trashes your property and leaves, and you keep a $2,000 deposit but you got to spend $6,500 to repaint, do new flooring, fix the drywall, get rid of whatever smells they caused, fix all the landscaping, get rid of all the trash they left there, it could be the equivalent of 15 years of the interest that you think you save getting the better interest rate. So let’s all avoid getting into the starry-eyed rate talk and thinking that that’s the only expense you’re going to have. These are the ways that we need to be analyzing real estate deals and, unfortunately, it doesn’t all fit on a spreadsheet.
However, I love the way you’re thinking, Tomi. Your brain is working like an investors is, you’re on the right journey. Keep asking questions like that and eventually, the algorithm in your mind will develop itself to where you’ll know if it’s a good deal or not. All right, we’re going to take a quick minute to hear a word from today’s show sponsors. But after that, we are going to be getting into a question that is very close to something that I experienced myself. They’ve got a property with $265,000 of equity in Jacksonville, Florida, where I had a pretty sizable portfolio at one point, and they want to know what to do. So stick around because we’re going to be back after this short break where we are going to hear from someone who has a portfolio similar to mine.
And welcome back everybody, I missed you. I’ve been waiting this whole time for you to finally listen to that ad and I’m so glad that you’re back here. Our next question comes from Summer Wheatley in Florida. Wait, no, I got that wrong, it’s actually Summer Berkeley. I don’t know what Summer Wheatley’s up to. If anybody else knows if she ever made it to the dance with Napoleon let me know in the comments how we think that that went. All right. Summer says, “I live near Jacksonville. I have one owner-occupied-single-family home that I’d like to sell with about $265,000 in equity. I want to deploy that equity into a bigger income-producing property. What are your thoughts, David? Would I have any issues getting a commercial loan since it’s usually based on the operating income and my credit is as high as credit can be? Plus I have lots of cash reserves as well as experience in this business?”
Well, first off, Summer, congratulations on being the most popular girl in Napoleon’s high school. And congratulations on having all this cash saved up and a lot of equity in your property. This is a great problem to have and I’m happy to help you here. Summer also mentions that she wants to move from a family-friendly area where she lives now to more of a beach nightlife area as she’s a single person and wants to upgrade her living situation. And that she would like to pay cash for Airbnb-type property or a commercial property, but is also willing to get a loan if that would make more sense.
All right, Summer, so here’s what I would do if I was you. First off, I’d split up the goal of finding a commercial property that I could operate like a hotel or an Airbnb, that you asked about with the lending, and my goal of moving to an area that I want to live. It’s very difficult when you try to combine or stack goals together. For instance, if you say, “I want to buy a property in a high appreciating area that has a ton of equity in it, and I want to buy it below market value, and I want it to be move-in ready, and I want it to cash flow really, really high, and I want it to have a cute kitchen” you’re just going to be looking forever, you’re not going to find that.
Now, if you said, “I want to buy a property that has a lot of equity and I can buy it below market value stop,” you might be able to find one of those. Or I want to find a property that has a cute kitchen that I would like to live in, you might be able to find one of those. Or I want to find a cash flow property. But you’re probably not going to find them all in the same deal. You’re better off to separate those different things and say, “I want to find a property with a lot of equity to flip, then I want to put those profits into a property that cash flows. And then I want to use the cash flow to help supplement the mortgage of a house that I want to live in.” You see what I’m saying? When you try to stack everything into the same deal you end up just staying house single forever. But when you’re willing to say, “Okay, I’m looking for different things and different opportunities,” and then you combine them all into one portfolio, you’re much more likely to be successful.
So let’s talk about what you can do in this case to find an area that you want to live in but it doesn’t break the bank. You should house hack. You should look for a property in an area that you want to live where other people also want to live. And you should look for a specific floor plan that would work for you to either rent the rooms out to other people … Maybe there’s a master bedroom on one side of the house that you can stay in, and then there’s other bedrooms on a different floor or a different story where other people could stay in. Maybe you find a house with an ADU that you live in. Or, you live in the main house and you rent out that ADU on Airbnb. A lot of the Airbnb restrictions in areas don’t apply to primary residences so you can get around some of that red tape if you take that road.
So now we’ve solved your first problem. You’re living in an area that you want to live and the cost of it is being supplemented by rental income. That takes a lot of pressure off of you and now you can focus on something that you could find which would be a cash-flowing commercial property. There’s probably going to be more opportunities in this space than almost anywhere else because the commercial markets have been trashed. Interest rates skyrocketing, balloon payments that are going to be due on commercial properties. There’s been a lot, a lot, lot of fluxx within that market. And there’s been a lot of people that have lost a lot of money when they were operating the property well but their note came due or their investors had to be paid off. And at the time they needed to refinance or sell, things didn’t work out.
It’s like musical chairs. When you’re walking around the chairs … If you’re in front of a chair when the music stops you’re good. That’s like having favorable interest rates when your note comes due. But if you happen to catch the bad luck of not being by a chair when the music stops, that would be rates being too high to refinance or sell, you’re stuck. Even if you are playing the game the right way sometimes things work against you when you’re in commercial properties. So I like this as an opportunity for you.
Now, when it comes to getting the loan you’re exactly right, you’re typically going to get approved based off of a little bit of your credit score but it’s going to more be the net operating income of the property which means the lender’s going to want to know well, how much money does the property generate? This is typically figured out by looking at all the leases that are in place and adding them up and that’s your income, and then looking at all the expenses that are going to be in place.
Now when you’re going to get financing for a commercial property, like what you mentioned, it’s usually a little bit trickier than if you’re trying to get it for a residential property because not as many people offer them. So I’m a loan broker. You could come to me and I would say, “Hey, you want to buy a house? Let’s look at all these different lenders we have and find the one with the best rate, the best terms, and the best service.”
But with commercial properties, you can do that it’s just way harder. A lot of these loans are done directly meaning you go to this specific bank and they tell you what they’re willing to offer. And it can be complicated. You’ve got different balloon payments, you’ve got recourse and non-recourse loans, you’ve got interest rates. A lot of these interest rates are adjustable. The minute it becomes adjustable there’s a lot of different ways that they can adjust. It’s not the same as getting a 30-year fixed rate loan like in residential real estate where you don’t have to be an expert. You do have to be an expert if you’re going to be getting into commercial financing, or you have to know an expert that can help you through this.
So while the gist of it is yeah, they’re going to look at the income that the property makes and underwrite it based off of that, and your credit will be involved. If it’s a recourse loan, it’s very easy to not understand the loan documents that the bank is coming up with and they’re not written to protect you. I just want everyone to hear this. When you’re buying a house that’s Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac backed, there are tons of protections built into that because these are insured by the federal government and they want to look after their tax-paying citizens. But that is not the case with these commercial loans that are not insured and you don’t have protections. And many of them have tiny little provisions that you would never see coming where you could technically be in default and they can foreclose on you even if you didn’t realize you did anything wrong.
I’m basically getting at the point that I’d love to see you take the equity that you’ve got and get deeper into investing. But I don’t want you to wander into that territory thinking that commercial works the same as residential, that the financing works the same, or that you’re going to combine your dream of living in an area with great nightlife, and a wonderful location, and great weather with cash flowing opportunity. Maybe 100 years ago, maybe 50 years ago when nobody really knew how real estate worked, and you could go in there and you could buy a commercial property and it’d probably have some residential spot above where you could live in the same building that you just bought. I don’t see very many opportunities out there like that now, and the ones that are often being chased down by big conglomerations, corporations, equity funds. There’s a lot of demand to find these kinds of properties so know who you’re going to be competing with.
All right. Just to sum that up for you there, Summer. Remember, commercials very different than residential. The financing is very different. Make sure you have an experienced person read through the loan paperwork and you understand all the deals if you’re going to get into the commercial property. And don’t try to combine all of your goals in the same property, split them up into different properties and put them all into a portfolio, what I call portfolio architecture, and architect your dream life.
All right, we’re going to be getting into the next segment of Seeing Greene where we share comments from YouTube, from you, our listener base, which I love doing, as well as some of the reviews that you’ve left for the show. Remember, I want to see your comments too and I’d love to have you featured on an episode of Seeing Greene. You can do so by going down if you’re watching this on YouTube right now, and leaving a comment as you listen, or by going to wherever you listen to your podcast and leaving us a review. Those help a ton so please do it.
All right, let’s get into our first comment. This comes from episode 869 from Hellermann Industries. I love affordable housing and high-price markets right now. First-time home buyers are always active and not concerned about leaving their golden rate behind. Pick a strong market with strong fundamentals and appreciation and buy under the median price point. Your flips will have a solid audience. And small multifamily housing makes killer rentals right now because renters are getting priced out of full-sized homes. That’s a pretty insightful comment there, Hellermann, well done. This is the kind of stuff I like to see on Seeing Greene. Apparently, all of you listening to this are smarter than the average bear.
All right, our first Apple Review says, “Five-star values, hosts, and content. I’ve been listening for two and a half years and I’m so thankful for all I’ve learned and the connections I’ve made from this podcast. It’s the perfect blend of inspiring stories, investing fundamentals, real estate strategy, and up-to-date information on the market. I am now an investor myself.” This comes from Courtney Cozens via Apple podcast. And I happen to know Courtney if you weren’t aware. Many of you that are listening to Seeing Greene actually become friends of mine. I recently had Courtney interview me on my Instagram talking about how I became an agent, how I built a team, what my experience was like in law enforcement, working in restaurants. A lot of the stuff that’s in my book, Pillars of Wealth. Go give Courtney Cozens a follow and like her comment.
And our next comment says, “Trailer trash to trailer cash. Been following you guys since the beginning. If I can change my life in this business anyone can. Love this podcast.” From CD Kid Cat. That’s pretty cool. And it rhymed, trailer trash to trailer cash. I wonder how Eminem has never worked that into one of his verses. I haven’t heard that yet but I feel like it’s staring him in the face. If anybody here knows Eminem make sure that you let him know that he has missed a potential goldmine to put on one of his songs.
All right. I appreciate and love all of the engagement that y’all are giving us in the comments. Let me know what you think about today’s show and the advice that I’ve given so far, as well as what you’d like to hear on a Future Seeing Greene show so that we can grab that and throw it into our production process. If you’d like to be featured on the show you can do so by heading to biggerpockets.com/david and submitting your video question. All right. We’re going to take a quick break and then we’re going to be back with a question about what to do with 20K and what to do as an investor stuck in your 50s. All right. Our next question comes from William Warshaw.

William:
Hey, David, my name is William Warshaw, I’m from Los Angeles, California. I’m 19 years old and I’m in my dorm room so bear with me. I have 20 grand saved up and I just simply need help taking action in LA, Southern California. 20 grand’s not going to get you much. It’s going to be hard even with an FHA loan. Should I go long distance here? It’s, obviously, very scary going long distance. I’m halfway through your book. Or should I do something like Airbnb arbitrage? I know how you guys feel about that but I feel like I could build my capital even though the short-term aspect is a lot more demanding as a college student. What do you guys think I should do here? Give me options. Let me know what you would do in my situation. Big fan of the podcast. Thanks.

David:
All right. Thanks, William, that’s great, man. If you guys weren’t watching this on YouTube you should be. William looks like a combination of Justin Bieber and Shawn Mendez got together and turned their hats backward. If you ever wanted to see the personification of Southern California check out Old William here. All right, William, here’s the first thing I want to say. Congrats on saving up 20 grand. First thing I want you to do, don’t lose it. Don’t go spending it on anything stupid. Don’t go invested into cryptocurrencies that you don’t understand. Don’t go buy an NFT, and don’t go start some online trading corporation or something that you think is going to make you a bunch of money. Second, congratulations on going to college and not just putting all of your efforts into becoming an online influencer, but I need to know a little bit more about what you’re studying in college so I can give you some advice on if I think that that’s a good idea or not.
Third, you’ve got 20 grand, why can’t you get more my man? You’re doing good. When I graduated college, and I’m not trying to compare me to you I’m just saying it’s possible, I graduated with my school paid off, no student debt, my car paid for in cash, and over $100,000 in the bank. I did that by working in restaurants and just staying late every single night. Perfecting my craft of being a waiter working as hard as I possibly could and saving all my money. You’re in school, you’re going to have to finish school. Do you want to finish school with 20 grand or do you want to finish school with 50 grand? Do you want to finish school with 20 grand or do you want to finish school with 100,000 grand? What are you doing for work right now that you can improve?
Remember, wealth building is not just about buying real estate though that is, obviously, an important component to it. It’s also about saving your money and making more money. William, I’d love to see you have the goal of buying a house, your first house hack, that you could rent to other people with as many bedrooms as you could get, maybe even bunk beds so that your friends could be paying you rent, and staying in this property or renting out to other college students that don’t want to live in the dorms, and I want you to make that the carrot that you pursue.
If you want to be a homeowner, and you want to buy your first house, I want to see you working more hours at a good job. If you’re working at some pizza joint, or if you’re doing DoorDash, there’s nothing wrong with it but there’s also nothing right with it. Find a job that challenges you. Find a job that every day you have to go to work and actually pray before you go in there, I hope I don’t make any mistakes because it’s that hard. It’s very good for a young man to be in a position where you’re doing something challenging, and difficult, and having to sharpen your sword of the skills that you’re providing in that workspace and pushing yourself. Too many people think that if you’re a young kid in college you’re not capable of anything but putting pepperoni on a pizza. It’s not true. Again, there’s nothing wrong if that’s what you’re doing, but if your goals are to be a millionaire through real estate there’s also nothing right with it. So push yourself, get a better job.
Now, the goal should be when you get out of college you want to buy a house but the money isn’t going to be your only problem, the financing is going to be a problem too. You’re going to have to show a debt-to-income ratio that a lender is going to be comfortable giving you a loan to. You’re going to have to show a debt-to-income ratio that’s going to satisfy a lender’s requirements which means you’re going to have to keep your debt low, you’re going to have to make more money. You see how making money just keeps working its way into this equation of real estate investing. We talk a lot about finding deals, acquiring deals, and though that is a way to make money it’s much harder. So put some focus towards your career, what you can do to bring value to the marketplace, and how you can build your skills.
And then in the meantime, start analyzing house hacks. Run three-bedroom properties, four-bedroom properties, five-bedroom properties, run duplexes, run triplexes. Find an agent that’s going to work with you, and have them send you deals to look at, and run the numbers of what the expenses would be, and what the income would be and look for patterns. What you’re looking for is a pattern that five-bedroom properties cash flow but you know you need at least three bedrooms, but you know need at least three bathrooms, you want to make sure that there’s plenty of parking. You want to get to the point that you know rent’s too low on this side of town to make it work but over here it could work. That way when you graduate, and you get the job, and you’re pre-approved to buy a house you’ve already got the information that you’re going to need to find the perfect one to start with.
Now, as far as how much money you want to have saved when you get out of college here’s what I would tell you. Look at what the average houses are going to cost that would work for a house hack, let’s say it’s $800,000. Assume you’re going to have to put 5% down on a conventional loan to get that house, that’s 40 grand. You’re going to need $10,000 for closing costs, and another five to $10,000 to improve the property. That’s going to put you right around 55 to $60,000. Now, you’re also going to need some money in the bank for reserves so add another 15 to 20 to that. And ideally, you want to be graduating college with 75 to $80,000 before you think about buying your first property.
With that money, you want to be able to invest it in something that gets you a return but my advice to you is avoid risk. It’s more important that you keep it than that you grow it, okay? So go find yourself a certificate of deposit in a bank, I think I saw one for around 5% the other day, put it in there, collect your 5%, it makes it harder for you to take the money out and spend it on something dumb, and just keep putting the money that you make into that account to earn you some money until you graduate, you’re ready to buy the house.
All right. And our last question of the show comes from Cleven in Las Vegas. “Hi, David, we’ve tried to find rental properties for a year but cannot figure out how to get positive cash flow based on the current mortgage rates. We’re in our mid-50s and we moved to Vegas in 2022 after selling our house in New York where we capitalized on some gains. However, both my wife and my jobs became insecure recently. I don’t know if we should stop looking until the market gets more stable, and so do our jobs, or we should continue looking before the markets get crazy again. Thank you.” Oh boy, Cleven, this is a problem that most people are having right now so first off don’t feel bad.
Largely, cash flow did go away when the mortgage rates went up. The good news was that houses weren’t selling for as much over asking prices as they used to be but there’s always going to be a pick-your-poison element to real estate investing. We complained about the fact that you had to overbid on these properties, even though they cash flowed, now we complain about the fact they don’t cash flow. If something changes we’re going to be complaining about that. Properties will cash flow but under different conditions, you’re going to have to put more money down. So if you’re putting more capital into the deal you’re going to watch your ROI go down even though your cash flow is going to go up.
And my two cents on this is that if you have to stick a lot more capital into a deal to make it cash flow so that it’s safe, you need to have significantly more upside which means you need to be investing in an area that is likely to get more appreciation, or getting a deal that you bought for less than what it’s worth by a significant amount. So it’s one thing to think about there. You can still get cash flow but you’re going to have to put down more than 20%. So if you’re looking to invest in Vegas, my advice would be to find the neighborhoods or the areas that you think are going to appreciate more than their competition. I call this market appreciation equity. It’s the idea that not all markets appreciate at the same level.
The other thing that you could do is look for a different primary residence for you and your wife that has an element of it that could be rented out. Can you find a property that’s got a guest house, that’s got a basement that you guys can live in and rent out the rest of it? I know that’s not ideal, I know it’s not what you want to do. But if cash flow really is impossible to find, the other way that you can build wealth is by saving on your expenses.
Can you eliminate your mortgage or cut it down by a significant amount and save the difference? Remember, $2,000 a month saved off of your mortgage is the same as $2,000 a month in cash flow. It’s actually better because cash flow is taxed while savings are not. It’s very easy as investors to forget that saving money is just as powerful as making money. And you really don’t need to be super focused on cash flow until you’ve already reduced your budget by as much as you possibly can. So those are two things that you can work on while the market is currently in this stalemate.
Now, I just want to remind you, if we do get lower rates and you think you’re getting cash flow again you’re going to have to be ready to jump in fast because all the other investors are going to realize the same thing. And like locust, they’re all going to converge on these markets and bid the prices up to where guess what? They no longer cash flow. Easy cash flow is a thing of the past. I don’t think we’re going to see it again maybe ever. Cash flow is now going to be something that you have to work really hard to find or something that you have to work really hard to create, or something that you have to wait to materialize on its own through rising rents. But remember that there are other ways that you can make money through real estate so focus on those.
All right, that was our last question for today’s Seeing Greene. And I’m so glad you’re here we haven’t done one of these for a while and I’m really glad that we did. Remember, I want to have you featured on this show so head to bigger biggerpockets.com/david and submit your questions there. And comment on YouTube and let us know what you thought of today’s show, what you wish that I would’ve said, and what your favorite part of it was. Thanks, everybody. You can find my information in the show notes if you want to follow me and leave me a message. You can also find my books at biggerpockets.com/store if you want to read those. And leave me a comment there, I’d love you for that also. We will see you on the next one.

 

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.





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Analyst discusses Evergrande liquidation order


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Charlene Chu, China macrofinancial senior analyst at Autonomous Research, discusses the Evergrande liquidation order and says “the real question about the winding up petition is to what extent are the mainland authorities going to recognize what was decided in the Hong Kong courts.”



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Two Unique Ways You Can Fund Your Kids’ College With Real Estate


Got kids? Then, eventually, you’ll (most likely) also have college bills. And spoiler alert: They will be big. 

While it’s certainly not a parental requirement, footing the college bill (or any part of it) and allowing your kids to graduate debt-free is an enormous gift—one of the biggest you can give your children. Conventional savings vehicles, like 529s, are amazing tax-free-withdrawal vehicles, but they’re not the only way to get to the finish line. You can also use your real investing superpower to build the college trove, and you don’t need to have started saving in utero (although that always helps)

Here are two ways to fund college with real estate, whether you’re starting early or a little later.

1. Starting Early: Buy a Single-Family Home When They’re Born

Each kid “gets” their own home. Put 20% down, buy something reasonable and steady, and rent it out. This is base-hit, not home run time—you have almost 20 years for the thing to appreciate, after all. 

Then you can do one of two things: squirrel away the yearly cash flow (in a 529 or another tax-deferred vehicle) to pay for school, or keep (reinvest) the cash and, 18 years later, sell the house entirely and likely have more than enough to pay the bills and then some because of your smart focus on appreciation.

Even better (and more generous), use the cash flow you’ve socked away for two decades to fund college, then transfer ownership of the single-family home to your college kid when they graduate. Work with your legal team to buy it initially in a trust or an LLC where your kids are already named so you don’t pay a transfer tax. Now you’ve gifted them their first income stream before they even have their first W2.

Of course, you’ll teach them how to handle this revenue—how to save it or reinvest it—so your gift pays massive dividends. Do this for each kid, and you’ll set them up for massive success.

2. Starting Later: House Hack in Their College Town

You may need to rely on your 529 or other savings with this strategy to fund the first year of college since you probably won’t be able to predict where they’ll enroll in advance, but once they decide, turn on the house hack engine. 

Sometime during your kid’s first year, buy a duplex or house with multiple bedrooms in their college town. Make sure it’s someplace that college kids actually want to live, close to campus and amenities. (Your kid can help advise on this.) 

Then, when your kid is allowed to move out of the dorms, move them—and their (respectful, well-behaved) friends into the rental—one bedroom per kid. Collect reasonable rent from the friends and/or from the tenants in the other half of the duplex and enjoy free room and board for your kid while using the proceeds to pay the rest of those college bills.

Is your kid good at finding roommates and keeping an eye on repairs? Offer to provide them with a little spending money in exchange for basic property management. Some universities will eventually allow you to declare in-state residency after a bit (if they’re going to college out of state), which will save you even more on bills. Four years later, decide whether you want to keep the original college house or rinse and repeat wherever they’ve decided to go to graduate school.

What did we miss? How are you planning to use real estate specifically to fund your kids’ college education?

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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Fannie Mae’s Mortgage Rate “Range” to Expect in 2024 and 2025


Home prices will rise, home sales will jump, and mortgage rates will fall to a familiar range, according to Fannie Mae’s Doug Duncan. In their newest consumer sentiment survey, Fannie Mae points to a “tale of two housing markets” where both buyers and sellers are stuck. Rates aren’t low enough to get back into the housing market, and with prices set to rise, why should homeowners sell?

Doug provides some incredible insight on today’s episode, explaining why housing market sentiment is still so low, what could boost homebuying demand, and where Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to be in 2024 and 2025. If you’re praying for rates to hit the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021, Doug has some news you NEED to hear.

But rates and prices aren’t the only factors impacting buying/selling. Our huge undersupply of housing is making the market even more competitive as builders remain stuck, forced to pay high interest rates and high labor costs, all during a time when most of America doesn’t want to purchase. How do we get out of this housing market stalemate? Stick around as one of the top minds in housing gives us his answers.

Dave:
Hey, what’s up everyone? Welcome to On the Market. My name is Dave Meyer, your host. And today we’re going to be talking to one of the most well-respected and knowledgeable housing economist in the country. His name is Doug Duncan. He’s the senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. You’re probably aware Fannie Mae, one of the biggest government-backed entities that provides mortgages to the entire country. And so Doug and his team are really up on what’s going on with the housing market.
And today there are a couple things that I’m really excited to talk to him about. First and foremost, his team collects information and consumer sentiment, not just consumers, but home buyer sentiment. And so we’re going to talk about how people are feeling about the market, and not just how they’re feeling, but how their opinions of the market actually go on to influence behavior and actual results in the marketplace. And then, Doug has one of the most nuanced and most specific understandings and predictions about mortgage rates that you are likely to hear. So if you’re curious about where mortgage rates are heading this year and well beyond where you can expect mortgage rates to live over the next couple of years, you’re definitely going to want to stick around for this episode. So we are going to take a quick break and then we’ll bring on Doug Duncan from Fannie Mae.
Doug, thanks so much for joining us today.

Doug:
Happy to be here. Good to see you again.

Dave:
Likewise. Recently, Fannie Mae released an economic outlook and a national housing survey. So before we get into the outlook, I’m just curious a little bit about the sentiment. How are American consumers feeling about the housing market according to the data you’re collecting?

Doug:
Not very good. There’s been a little bit of an uptick recently in toward the positive direction as interest rates have started to come down a little bit, but in general, people don’t view it as a very good time to buy or frankly even to sell because affordability is really challenged. The pace at which prices rose in the 2020 to ’22 time period was very dramatic, much stronger than history would suggest. And then, even though interest rates were very low, which was one of the reasons for the price appreciation as people took advantage of those low interest rates, once interest rates rose, then the combination of high house prices and high interest rates really socked affordability significantly. It’s probably the worst it’s been for three decades or thereabouts, and people not very happy about that.

Dave:
Well, I appreciate your candor just saying not very good. That’s very blunt and appreciate it. How dramatic is it? Is it significantly worse than it’s been even after the ’08, ’09 era?

Doug:
Well, this is very different causes for the perspective. In the ’08, ’09 area, there was very weak or poor underwriting decisions made about credit qualifications and many loans made to people that really were realistically unable to sustain them. And as economic conditions changed, that proved out. There were huge levels of foreclosures. And so house price declines. Even with low interest rates during that time period did not lead to very happy consumers. And so we had to work through those foreclosures caused by that weak underwriting and the decline in the economy.
Today’s the basis for dissatisfaction is much more on the affordability side. Loan quality is very good. The number of delinquencies in the mortgage space are at very low levels, close to the lowest in history for Fannie Mae. And in part, that’s because in that 2020 to 2022 time period, a lot of people who already had mortgages refinanced them down to interest rates that are lifetime… It’ll be a once in a lifetime opportunity to lock in a 3% mortgage rate for a 30-year time period. So that side of things is very positive.
Our CEO called it a tail of two housing markets. If you’re in the market already and an owner, it was a great time to improve your position. You’ve seen that price decline, add equity to your household balance sheet. You’re in a really solid position. The problem is if you’re on the outside looking in trying to buy for the first time, high home prices and high interest rates are a toxic mix for you. In our sentiment survey, you do see a difference between current owners and those who are renters, and the owners are in a better position than the renters are.

Dave:
That makes sense. And what does this mean to you? Obviously, it’s interesting to see sentiment, but does it tell you anything about the housing market in the near future?

Doug:
Well, it says it’s going to be a gradual improvement, a slog, if you will, to get better. Our forecast is for home sales in 2024 to be around 4% higher than in 2023, but 2023 was a very low year historically. So it’s an improvement, but it’s certainly no gangbusters’ improvement. House prices are still, in our view, going to appreciate just because there’s such a lack of supply in the market and there’s still strong demand out there. Every increment that interest rates come down is going to put some pressure on activating that demand against that low level of supply and create upside risks in the house price area. And it’s really on the back of the builders to improve supply. But that’s going to take time.

Dave:
I guess one of the questions I’m continuously wondering and have been asking people is, as you said, lower rates and every time they tick down increases demand. But is there any chance that it will also increase supply because it improves those buying conditions for people who might now be willing to sell to buy into a slightly more favorable buying market?

Doug:
Well, at the margin, that’s possible. And if you look into the sentiment survey, you can see among the people who currently own a home, that their sentiment suggests it’s not a great time to sell a house because the combination of higher prices and interest rates reduces the group of people who could afford to buy that house. And so they don’t want to sell into a falling price market. So there’s a little bit of a give and take there with the improvement in affordability, and it really all comes back to revolve around supply.
So in order to make things return to more historically common relationship, you got to see one or a combination of up to three things change. One is there has to be some increase in supply. Some people are looking to that to the late life boomers releasing supply back into the market as one possibility. Obviously, the builders’ acceleration among the builders and adding supply to the market. The second thing is a rise in real household incomes. That’s important. If we see growing real household incomes, that helps. And a third thing is reduction in interest rates. So some combination of those three things is going to be required to return affordability to longer term, more average levels. And we don’t see that happening in 2024.
We see the Fed cutting rates four times in 2024. That’s what gets us to that 5.8% mortgage rate, which we think may occur in the fourth quarter of this year. So gradual improvement. We’ll see whether the bond market bears that out in 2025. We actually have another four rate cuts in our forecast, and so we see mortgage rates coming down into the mid-fives range.
When we are asked to think about what should people think of as a go forward mortgage rate, I take a look back at the history of the 30-year pick street mortgage. And from the post-World War II time period after the VA was in operation and employment stabilized shifting from the war footing of the economy, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage from that time period up to the year 2000 is about 6%. During that time, the economy grew at about 3% annual even including recessions.
So if you think about that relationship and then think about the CBO today projects the potential growth of GDP going forward at about one and three quarters percent annually, and think about what would mortgage rates relative to that look like. What I tell mortgage lenders is I would be doing my planning on a interest rate path across the housing cycle of between four and a half and 6%, four and a half when we come out of recession. And so things are getting started again, the Fed has eased, rates have come down. Then across the expansion, you see rates gradually move up as incomes move up. And prior to Fed tightening on the other end of that expansion, mortgage rates probably hit around 6%. So the middle of that, it’s about five and a quarter percent mortgage.
It might be a little lower, depending on what you think about all of the treasury issuance that has to be done to fund the debt in the United States because that number is going to be bigger this year than last year and even bigger next year. So that underlying treasury issuance may put some up upper pressure on rates that would suggest it wouldn’t go as low as it might given the lower level of economic growth under which the housing market operated.

Dave:
Okay. But it sounds like given what you’re saying about the range, and if the Fed you believe long-term tightens around six, gets back down to four and a half, does that mean you think the reason it’s going to take a few years to get back down to maybe low fives is because we’re going to be in a extended period of slow economic growth or perhaps even a recession?

Doug:
Well, we flipped our forecast in December. We still had a mild recession in the first half of 2024, but we’re just not seeing the weight of change resulting in that at this point in time. We’re still monitoring a series of things that are highly correlated with recession that are still indicating recession. But one of the reasons we felt the recession would be mild was because of the supply demand imbalance within housing. That certainly has played out to be true. That part of the forecast we absolutely got right. But housing now starting to improve would suggest it may actually keep us from going into recession and lead the way to, if not strong growth, at least slow growth. And our forecast does reflect slow growth over the next couple of years. So that slow growth suggests that the Fed will continue to bring rates down and move mortgage rates back to that low to mid-fives range.

Dave:
I want to get back to something you said earlier, Doug, about supply and where it comes from. And it sounds like you’re of the belief that I think is shared by a lot of experts in the housing market that affordability long-term does need to return to more historical averages, but it doesn’t need to happen quickly, and it could happen over the next few years as the combination of variables, you said, take effect. You said basically real wage growth that for our listeners means inflation adjusted wage growth, perhaps more building, lowering interest rates. Is that how you see the housing market operating over the next few years?

Doug:
Yeah, we don’t see the supply problem going away immediately. That’s a longer term challenge, and there’s been a lot of analysts that have run their forecast ship on the ground expecting some sort of a catastrophic decline in house prices because of a demographic shift. We don’t see that.
Most recently, there was an article written about who’s going to buy all these big suburban homes now that the boomers are empty nesters. Well, the shift toward work from home suggests even if you have a smaller family, now you need at least one office and maybe two if you’re a two income household. And so that’s going to absorb some of those extra bedrooms that were considered to be the risk. And so once again, the shift in economics and demographics has suggested there’s not waiting out there some catastrophic decline in house prices. And in fact, gen X population group, depending on the years that you calculate, is actually larger than the boomers, and they’re still a pretty significant group at the tail end of that age group. And the uncertainty is we don’t know how much immigration is going to backfill behind that. So predicting some sort of a dramatic drop-off in house price has been a fraught area to be in, and we’re not in that area.

Dave:
Yeah. Yeah. I’m with you there. The last question, Doug, before we let you go is you mentioned something about construction and that it would take a really long time. This is a question we get a lot here on the show. What would it take for construction to bail us out of the supply problem?

Doug:
Well, you’d have to see a continued acceleration of acquiring resources by builders in order to push that forward. People talk about the three Ls or the five Ls. Land, labor and lumber being the three Ls, and they’re still in the builder community surveys. You will still see that one of the constraints that they recognize is the lack of skilled labor. It’s not basic labor carrying bags of cement or blocks or whatever, but it’s people who are really good at drywall and finishing products and things like… Some of that takes time to build. And if everyone’s trying to expand, it’s reasonable that you would see in their surveys that is a problem for them. If everybody’s trying to hire skilled labor at the same time, there’s going to be, in the surveys, a reflection of that as a challenge for them.
You would say, okay, we’ll just raise their wage rates and you’ll get more. Okay. They still need to make a profit. If you raise the cost of labor, then the question is, what happens to the cost of materials? Well, the cost of material has been going up as well. Okay, well, then what happens with the cost of land? Well, the cost of land has been going up as well. So it’s a gradual process and they expand according to the pace at which real incomes will allow households who would like to buy a new home to be able to purchase it. So there’s a simultaneous change of economic factors that needs to take place, and that will be gradual, not sudden.

Dave:
That’s a very good explanation. Thank you. I think we were all hoping it will happen, but obviously there’s some barriers to that just picking up overnight.

Doug:
Yeah, that’s right.

Dave:
Well, Doug, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate your time.

Doug:
You bet. Good to be with you.

Dave:
Another big thanks to Doug for joining us today. I hope you all enjoyed it. I think Doug is one of the most knowledgeable guys out there and really shared some really helpful information. For me, I find the range that he provided about mortgage rates to be one of the more useful tidbits and stats that I’ve heard in a long time because, frankly, people guess where rates are going to be in the end of 2024. But for me as an investor, it is more important to me what the range is going to be going forward because that actually allows me to make more long-term decisions. Like, do I want to do a rate buydown? How much debt do I want to put on? Should I refinance this year? Rates are going to be lower. And I generally think that his analysis of the range of rates is good.
It sounds like we need another year to at least get into that range of six to 4.5%. And I agree with Doug. I personally don’t see it going. I think it will probably stay in the sixes for most of ’24, maybe dip into the fives. But I do think we have a ways to go with mortgage rates. But it’s helpful still to just understand that not likely to get down into 3% again, probably not even into the low fours anytime soon, maybe not even in our lifetimes. And so that will hopefully get people selling when they realize this. And as an investor, that hopefully helps you make decisions about what you’re going to purchase, when you’re going to purchase and your financing strategy.
So hope you learn something. I appreciate you all for listening. If you did learn something and you liked it, share it with a friend or leave us a five star review on whatever platform you’re listening on. Thanks again. We’ll see you next time.
On The Market was created by me, Dave Meyer, and Kailyn Bennett. The show is produced by Kailyn Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico Content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

 

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Bilt Rewards is the first neighborhood loyalty platform, says General Catalyst chairman Ken Chenault


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Ankur Jain, Bilt Rewards founder and CEO, and Ken Chenault, General Catalyst chairman and managing director and Bilt Rewards board chairman, join ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the company’s rewards program, how Bilt partners with real estate owners and allows its users to earn points when paying their rent, and more.

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The Real Estate Investment You Missed Out on in 2023


This article is presented by Ignite Funding. Read our editorial guidelines for more information.

As an investor, you have many options when it comes to where you put your money. Day after day, whether you are driving to work or watching your favorite reality TV show, you’ll see advertisements telling you to invest in gold, stocks, digital currency, mutual funds, etc. 

And because of those ads, people have become familiar with those types of investments. But very few people are familiar with trust deed investing, although it’s a form of investing as old as money itself. 

What is Trust Deed Investing?

A trust deed investment is when a lender (you) lends money to a borrower (homebuilder/developer) that is secured/collateralized by real estate. Trust deeds allow investors to get a passive introduction to investing in real estate without the need for large capital outlays. 

Investing in trust deeds means you are loaning your money against collateral. The collateral—real estate/land, in this case—serves to protect the lender’s investment.

This leads us to one of the most important considerations in trust deed investing: the true value of the collateral. It’s especially important that trust deed investors consider the size of the loan they are making in relationship to the real estate collateralizing the loan. This is why a detailed underwriting process is helpful to justify the value of the property, evaluate each piece of collateral at hand, and ensure the borrower is accountable for what they are borrowing. 

Before investing in any trust deed, ensure you are provided the following: 

  • Location
  • Type of loan
  • Terms and funding date
  • Interest schedule
  • APNs or property address
  • Collateral history, if applicable
  • Property details
  • Borrower use of proceeds

As an investor, you get to choose which projects you invest in, as well as which borrowers your funds are lent to.

Why Trust Deed Investing?

A loan made via a trust deed is similar to a mortgage. The basic difference is that there are three parties in a trust deed: the borrower, the lender, and the trustee. 

The trustee holds the deed while the loan is being paid. Also, there is a signed promissory “note” that defines all the terms of the loan. If the borrower defaults on the loan, the trustee starts the foreclosure process. In a mortgage, the lender has to go to court to get the foreclosure started. 

Trust deed investing is so popular because it pays a comparably high rate of return, and the investments are secured by real estate, while other investments like stocks, bonds, and mutual funds don’t provide investors with collateral. Further, once the loan has been made, the rate of return associated with the trust deed is fixed and does not change throughout the duration of the loan. 

Trust Deed Investment Best Practices and Considerations

Before choosing a company to invest with, always research the company. As with all investments, there are inherent risks. It is highly recommended that consideration and proper due diligence be given to the company you are entrusting with managing your real estate portfolio. 

While trust deeds provide a sense of security through the collateral of the property, they are not entirely risk-free. Economic downturns, changes in real estate values, or defaults can impact the return on investment. 

Trust deed investments also lack liquidity, something most investors have become accustomed to, specifically in the stock market. Selling or exiting a trust deed investment may take more time and effort compared to selling stocks, as the terms and conditions may not allow an investor to prematurely exit the investment without penalty, if at all. 

Defaults are always a possibility for anyone lending or investing in real estate. How the default situation is handled can be detrimental to the return on your initial principal investment. The default process can be overwhelming for investors who have never taken property back through foreclosure, which is why it is important you work with a reputable and experienced loan servicer. 

So when is a good time to invest in trust deeds? The simple answer is now. 

Trust deeds don’t follow the volatility of the stock market. They more or less beat to the sound of their own drum. They also provide investors with instant diversification through different geographic locations and phases of real estate (acquisition, development, and construction). Depending on your investing time horizon and risk tolerance, where you invest your money can make a big difference in your financial future. 

In each example in the chart, if you invested $100,000 over five years with annual compounding in each of these investment vehicles, the results vary significantly based on the potential performance:

Every investor deserves to have a reliable source of passive income in their portfolio. Had you invested a portion of your portfolio in 2023 in trust deeds, you could have made a consistent 10% annualized return on your investment. 

This being said, Trust Deeds are not meant to be the “grand slam” investment of your portfolio. They are meant to provide passive, fixed income that diversifies you from other investment types but still allows you to have control in terms of selecting where you want your funds to be invested. 

If this type of investment intrigues you at all or you would like to speak to someone about questions you may have about getting started, check out the Ignite Funding website or call us at 702-761-0000.

This article is presented by Ignite Funding

Ignite Funding Short Long logo Orange no contact info 2023

Ignite Funding offers real estate investments backed by collateral. More specifically, we provide an alternative investment option that matches quality real estate Borrowers with Investors seeking capital preservation in collateralized turn-key real estate investments while earning a 10% to 12% annualized return. Since 2011, Ignite Funding has funded over $1.5B in loans with Investor capital.

Ignite Funding, LLC | 6700 Via Austi Parkway, Suite 300, Las Vegas, NV 89119 | P 702.739.9053 | T 877.739.9094 | F 702.922.6700 | NVMBL #311 | AZ CMB-0932150 | | Money invested through a mortgage broker is not guaranteed to earn any interest and is not insured. Prior to investing, investors must be provided applicable disclosure documents.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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