By Nic DeAngelo, CEO at Saint Investment Group, an award-winning real estate investment platform.

Leadership is a quality that comes naturally to some and requires a conscious effort from others. Being an effective leader can be the difference between the success and failure of a business or team. As such, it is essential to learn from experience and gather insights to help navigate the path to success. In this article, I will discuss seven key leadership lessons that can help individuals achieve business development success.

1. Know Yourself And Own It From Top To Bottom

The first lesson in leadership is to know yourself. This means exploring your experiences and thoughts to fully embrace and accept yourself. Leveraging your strengths, weaknesses, flaws and unique qualities can help you achieve success and boost your self-esteem. These practices can also help you build confidence and develop a more authentic leadership style.

2. Be Laser-Focused And Curious

Focus is a superpower in today’s age. You’ll need a focused mindset to set yourself apart from the competition and yield astronomical results. Lack of focus can lead to distraction and hinder long-term fulfillment and results. To excel at something, it’s important to intentionally choose what to focus on for the long term, as wasting time on uncertain interests can be detrimental.

To provide an example of focusing in the investing place, say an investor wants to specialize in a specific industry, such as technology or healthcare. Instead of trying to invest in every industry, they would focus their research and analysis on companies within their chosen industry. This would allow them to gain a deep understanding of the industry and make informed investment decisions. By staying focused on their area of expertise, they can better identify potential opportunities and potentially outperform the market.

However, curiosity is crucial for companies and leaders to innovate and develop new ideas. If they don’t make progress, they risk being replaced or left behind. It’s not just about learning from others through books, podcasts, etc., but also about taking the time to record and reflect on personal experiences so you can bring the insights you gain into the future.

3. Get Your House In Order

Taking care of one’s own personal housekeeping is crucial to staying on track and achieving goals. It’s easy to let small things slide, but they can quickly snowball into larger issues. Make sure to hold yourself accountable and practice discipline in handling whatever needs attention, including your health, fitness and spirituality.

4. Learn To Forgive In Order To Make Progress

Forgiveness is a powerful tool that can help one move forward in life. It’s easy to hold onto resentment and bitterness, but ultimately, these negative emotions only hurt the person who harbors them. Learning to forgive is not only beneficial for others but also for yourself. When you forgive others, you release the emotional burden you carry and allow yourself to move on. Similarly, if you can forgive yourself for your past mistakes and shortcomings, you’ll be better able to let go of shame and guilt and focus your energy on achieving your goals.

In a business or workplace setting, practicing forgiveness can improve relationships and promote a positive work environment. For example, you could accept apologies instead of holding grudges, let go of past mistakes to move forward with a positive attitude, and offer second chances to colleagues or business partners who may have made mistakes. By practicing forgiveness, it’s possible to resolve conflicts more effectively and improve productivity and teamwork.

5. Stay Curious And Embrace A Growth Mindset

A growth mindset involves developing one’s abilities through dedication and hard work. I believe this mindset is crucial for business development success. Staying curious and open-minded is essential for growth. A leader should never stop learning and should seek out new experiences and challenges.

To develop and implement a growth mindset, it is important to embrace challenges, adopt a positive attitude and prioritize learning and improvement. This may involve setting goals, seeking feedback and trying new things outside of your comfort zone. If you’re working to overcome mental barriers, I would recommend reframing negative self-talk, practicing more self-compassion, and acknowledging that your mistakes and setbacks are opportunities for professional growth. To put a growth mindset into practice, make sure to reflect on your progress and challenges, seek out new opportunities for learning and development, and stay open to feedback and new perspectives at your company. With time and practice, a growth mindset can lead to increased resilience, creativity and success in business and in your personal life.

6. Communicate Effectively And Listen Actively

Leaders need to learn to communicate effectively in order to be successful. They should be able to clearly communicate their vision, goals and expectations. Active listening is equally important. A leader should listen to their team members, clients and stakeholders and take their feedback into account. This information can give them a deeper understanding of what motivates team members and clients, resulting in better outcomes.

7. Lead By Example

Leading by example is one of the most powerful tools a leader has available to them. A leader who models the behavior they expect from others inspires trust and respect. If they work hard, are honest and have integrity, they’ll likely encourage their team to do the same.

Leadership is a journey of self-discovery, focus, discipline and forgiveness. By embracing these seven key lessons for business development success, we can create a strong foundation for our personal and professional growth and lead ourselves and others toward excellence. Let’s commit to becoming better leaders and inspiring others to do the same.

Institutional investors (those who own 1,000 or more homes) have been selling off their inventory in 2023. These big investors have reduced their buying activity by nearly 80% from Q4 of 2022 compared to Q4 of 2021, according to John Burns Research and Consulting. 

This change in activity has led to 90% fewer purchased homes in January and February of this year than in the first two months of 2022. 

This is a sharp contrast to the pandemic purchasing of houses in the U.S. These were times when it was easy to borrow money and interest rates were at rock bottom—coupled with rising rents and soaring home prices making it a perfect storm for institutional homebuyers to add to their portfolios. So, why has the trend reversed? 

We’ll take a closer look at the trends of institutional homebuyers, the reasons why they are backing out, and what this means for individual investors.

Selling Homes and Shrinking Portfolios

American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes have been net sellers in the first quarter of this year. As of March 31, 2023, American Homes 4 Rent—a leading builder in single-family rental communities—had a portfolio of 58,639 homes, which was reduced by 354 homes compared to 58,993 homes (666 homes sold, while 299 newly constructed and 13 acquired) as of December 31, 2022. 

In the first quarter of 2023, Invitation Homes purchased 194 homes and sold 297. As the U.S.’s biggest owner of single-family rentals, its portfolio decreased from 83,113 to 83,010 single-family homes.

What’s more, data from Redfin shows that institutional investors are fleeing once sought-after towns such as Las Vegas, Nevada, and Phoenix, Arizona, due to home prices dropping. How much have they dropped? Newly built homes in Phoenix dropped 15% year over year in March, according to Realtor.com. 

Rising interest rates

With the Fed increasing rates rapidly, it has caused mortgage rates to creep up. According to Forbes, a 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.22% in early 2022 but has since risen to an average of 7.17%. Consequently, the deals aren’t as lucrative compared to during the pandemic. 

What’s in store for the remainder of the year? Experts—including Dave Meyer—are predicting more volatility in interest rates and that we may have or will reach a peak during the summer, with rates steadying by year-end. 

Housing prices are fluctuating

We’re seeing limited inventory as new home listings have reduced by over 20% compared to last year, according to Realtor.com. In an April report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), data shows that the median existing-home sales price dropped 1.7% from one year ago to $388,800. 

Overall, we’re seeing limited inventory and a decline in home sales, along with home prices bouncing back in half the country, while the other half is declining from pandemic peaks.

Rent growth has declined

Recently, rent growth in the U.S. has been flat. In April, asking rents in the U.S. increased by only 0.29% annually to $1,967—the smallest year-over-year rent growth in 37 months. New Orleans, Louisiana (-15%) and Austin, Texas (-14%) were the hardest hit. During the pandemic, we witnessed millennials starting families and buying homes, but now households plan to stay put.

Even though rent growth may have slowed, renter demand will likely increase. The issue of housing affordability will make it challenging for Americans to become homeowners. 

Are Institutional Investors Scooping Up All the Inventory?

Contrary to popular belief, institutional homebuyers aren’t sucking up inventory and pushing prices even higher. In fact, according to NAR, although institutional homebuyer share increased in 84% of the states, they only made up 15% of single-family home purchases in 2021. So, everyday investors shouldn’t worry too much about a battle scenario between David versus Goliath. 

What This Means For Everyday Investors

These factors mean the return on investment isn’t nearly as lucrative during the pandemic. Ultimately, with rising interest rates, overinflated housing prices, and rental growth slowing down, the financial gains aren’t what they used to be. 

However, you may have noticed higher-than-usual institutional homebuyer activity if you live in certain Sun Belt regions, including Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Alabama. These regions have made up a larger portion of overall homebuying activity. So, it depends on where you live in the U.S. to determine how much of an impact this will have on you. 

Another study by Yardi Systems shows that in 2022, institutional investors who owned single-family rentals made up only 5% of the market (700,000 out of 14 million). Furthermore, MetLife Investment Management (MIM) predicts it could grow to 40%, or 7.6 million homes, by 2030. 

Is It a Good Time to Buy a Rental Property? 

Only time will tell when institutional homebuyers will get up from the sidelines and actively buy more inventory. If mortgage interest rates and home valuations decrease, we may see an uptick in purchasing activity. Sheharyar Bokhari, a senior economist at Redfin, predicts it’s “unlikely that investors will return with the same vigor they had in 2021.” This is welcome news for mom-and-pop real estate investors who feel they are competing with institutional investors. 

What’s more, it comes down to crunching the numbers to see if it makes financial sense. With mortgage rates inflated and low inventory, we’re seeing Americans holding out as well. But with rising home prices nationwide, there will be growing demand for renters in the long term. You’ll need to determine whether any potential rental property will add value to your portfolio based on your individual financial goals.

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

At the heart of harnessing this transformative power of Synergy is team coaching.

Recently, I have found myself deeply contemplating the profound concept of Synergy, particularly its transformative role within a team context. One quote that has incessantly resonated with me is from Stephen Covey, the author of “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People”: “Synergy is better than my way or your way. It’s our way.” These words serve as a compelling reminder of Synergy’s immense power. They evoke the notion of collective effort, the value of shared solutions, and the extraordinary potential that lies in unity. More than an idea, Synergy is an empowering force, a catalytic energy that can propel a team to surpass achievements that would be impossible to reach individually.

Synergy is often discussed in abstract terms, especially in business. But in reality, it’s far from just a conceptual idea; Synergy represents the dynamic heart of high-performing teams. The true power of Synergy is its capacity to drive a group of individuals toward unprecedented levels of success. This potent force underscores the principle that a cohesive, harmonious team can achieve outcomes that far outstrip the combined achievements of its members. But the magic of Synergy isn’t simply additive—it’s multiplicative. It lifts the potential of a team from simple aggregation to a high-octane fusion of talent, creativity, and productivity.

At the heart of harnessing this transformative power of Synergy is team coaching. A proficient team coach excels at transforming a collection of individuals into a single, symbiotic entity. They are essential in blending individual skills, talents, and strengths into a powerful concoction culminating in exceptional team performance. Under the guidance of a skilled coach, communication becomes seamless, goals align harmoniously, and collaboration occurs as naturally as breathing.

A significant part of a team coach’s role revolves around honing communication skills. They work diligently to ensure that ideas, feedback, and knowledge flow freely within the team, creating an environment ripe for innovation and problem-solving. The coach also meticulously facilitates the alignment of team goals, another crucial element of Synergy. This alignment forges a shared vision and purpose that each team member can passionately support and rally behind.

The coach’s interventions significantly amplify the lifeblood of Synergy—collaboration. A team coach fosters a culture where team members highly value their colleagues’ contributions. They help everyone understand that each role, regardless of its perceived importance, is vital to the team’s success.

However, the genius of team coaching extends beyond merely fostering Synergy—it also lies in sustaining it. A coach works tirelessly to ensure the team’s synergistic functioning becomes ingrained, almost second nature. Through continuous feedback, reinforcement of positive team behaviors, and celebration of shared successes, the coach helps the team maintain its peak performance, even as challenges and setbacks occur.

Team coaching represents the ignition and maintenance of Synergy’s rocket fuel, driving teams to reach new heights of success. It’s a dynamic process that transforms individual potential into an unstoppable collective force, helping teams surpass what they could have achieved. The power of Synergy through team coaching is undeniable, proving that together, we indeed are more than the sum of our parts.

Creating a synergistic team starts with improving communication, aligning goals, and fostering collaboration. Then, the power of Synergy is within your reach. Start today, and unlock the full potential of your team. You can turn “my way” and “your way” into “our way” for unprecedented success.

There are plenty of platforms that short-term rental real estate investors can use to market their space, but two of them make up the lion’s share of the industry: Airbnb and VRBO (Vacation Rentals By Owner). While their primary functions are similar, Airbnb and VRBO have many key differences in the types of properties available, target audiences, fees and commissions, and much more. 

Let’s match Airbnb vs. VRBO to determine which platform best suits your investment strategy.

What is Airbnb?

Airbnb’s mission is “to lock the power of sharing space, resources, and support in times of need.” The platform started in 2007 when two hosts welcomed three guests to stay in their San Francisco home. Sixteen years later, the platform has grown to more than 4 million hosts and over 220 countries and regions across the globe.

As of December 31, 2022:

• Over 100,000 cities and towns have active Airbnb listings
• There are 6.6 million active listings worldwide
• Hosts have accommodated more than 1.4 billion guest arrivals

What is VRBO?

VRBO’s mission is to “find every family the space they need to relax, reconnect, and enjoy precious time away together.” They have been pairing homeowners and families seeking places to stay since 1995 and have grown into a global vacation brand with more than 2 million whole homes actively available on their platform. VRBOs are currently available in nearly 200 countries.

Airbnb vs. VRBO: Property Types

The most distinct difference between Airbnb and VRBO is the types of homes available on each platform. 

Airbnb offers nearly every space imaginable. You can stay in mansions, treehouses, houseboats, tiny homes, private islands, caves, containers, windmills, and everything in between. 

These spaces are broken up into four distinct categories:

• Entire space: Guests have the whole place to themselves, which typically includes a bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and a dedicated, separate entrance.
• Traditional hospitality spaces: These rooms indicate that the host provides the same customer service and hospitality that guests would experience at a hotel. Hostels, bed and breakfasts, and comparable properties are also included in this category. Hotel rooms typically have a common area for guests to interact with one another.
• Private rooms: Instead of getting an entire space to yourself, you’re renting a room in a property others may occupy. They’re great for guests who want a little privacy but don’t mind sharing common areas. 
• Shared rooms: Shared rooms are great for travelers who want to socialize with others and don’t mind a lack of privacy. You’ll sleep in shared spaces when booking a shared room. 

VRBO only offers entire spaces, such as condos and vacation homes. This is one of the reasons why VRBO has around 2 million listings, while Airbnb offers more than three times that amount.

Related: Ultimate Guide to Top-Notch Airbnb and VRBO Listings

Target Audiences

Airbnb markets to a wide range of people looking for an alternative to hotels. VRBO’s target market is more specific. It markets to families who are vacationing together and want to spend more quality time with one another.

Here’s a breakdown of who stays at each:

Fees and Commissions

Airbnb and VRBO let you set up and list your property for free and offer liability coverage at no extra cost. Both platforms require you to pay host service fees when monetizing your property but offer different options for you to consider. 

Airbnb host fees

Airbnb offers two fee structures: a split fee and a host-only fee. 

Split fees let you split the costs between the host and the guest, with the guest paying the lion’s share of them. Here, the host pays a 3% fee (or more if you have “super strict” cancellation policies or are listing in Italy) that’s determined by the booking subtotal and gets automatically deducted from your payout. The subtotal calculates:

• Nightly rate
• Cleaning fee
• Additional guest fee (if applicable)

The guest service fees usually come to less than 14.2% of the booking subtotal, including the abovementioned fees.

Here’s what this looks like if a guest books your Airbnb for four nights at $200 per night:

• $200 x 4 = $800 + $100 cleaning fee = $900 subtotal
• $900 x 3% = $27 host service fee
• $900 – $27 = $873 total profit for the host
• $900 x 14% = $126 guest service fee (including taxes and occupancy)
• $900 + $126 = $1,026 total cost for guest

Host-only fees mean that you, as the host, cover all of the added costs, usually between 14-16% of the booking subtotal. This fee structure is mandatory if you offer a traditional hospitality space (i.e., hotel rooms, hostels, bed and breakfasts, etc.). 

Here’s what this looks like if a guest books your Airbnb for four nights at $200 per night:

• $200 x 4 = $800 + $100 cleaning fee = $900 subtotal
• $900 x 15% = $135 host service fee (including taxes and occupancy fees)
• $900 – $135 = $765 total profit for the host
• $900 = total cost for guest

VRBO host fees

VRBO also offers two fee structures: subscription and pay-per-booking methods.

The subscription model covers unlimited bookings for an entire year for $499, paid a year in advance. This plan is the way to go if you make more than $6,250 in bookings annually. 

The pay-per-booking model charges you 5% of the booking subtotal and an additional 3% payment processing fee for the total amount. Like Airbnb, the subtotal includes: 

• Nightly rate
• Cleaning fee
• Additional guest fee (if applicable)

Here’s what this looks like if a guest books your VRBO for four nights at $200 per night:

• $200 x 4 = $800 + $100 cleaning fee = $900 subtotal
• $900 x 5% = $45 host service fee

Let’s assume the taxes and extra fees come to $150:

• $900 + $150 = $1,050 total payment amount
• $1,050 x 3% = $31.50 payment processing fee
• $45 + $31.50 = $76.50 total host fees
• $900 – $76.50 = $823.50 total profit for the host

Airbnb vs. VRBO: Property Damage Protection

Compared to other rentals, vacation homes are more likely to incur property damage because more people use them. Understanding this risk, Airbnb’s Aircover for Hosts and VRBO Host Insurance offer host damage protection.

Aircover for Hosts provides “top-to-bottom protection for hosts,” including: 

• Reservation screening
• Guest ID verification
• $3 million for host damage protection
• $1 million for host liability insurance
• $1 million for experiences liability insurance
• 24-hour safety line

Aircover for Hosts protects your property while you’re hosting guests. However, you’ll still need personal insurance if something happens to your property when you don’t have guests. 

VRBO Host Insurance offers $1 million in primary liability coverage at no additional cost, which protects you against any property damage or travel injury claims made against you. If you file a claim, it’s recommended that you do so as quickly as possible. VRBO’s insurance services are available 24/7. 

Airbnb vs. VRBO: Cancellation Policies

Airbnb and VRBO each have several cancellation policies. Here are your options for each:

Airbnb cancellation policies

• Flexible: Guests are fully refunded until 24 hours before check-in. If they cancel within that window, you’ll be compensated for each night they stay + one additional night.
• Moderate: Guests are fully refunded until five days before check-in. If they cancel within that window, you’ll be compensated for each night they stay + one additional night + 50% for all unspent nights.
• Firm: Guests are fully refunded until 30 days before check-in. If guests cancel between seven and 30 days before check-in, you’ll be compensated 50% for all nights booked. You’ll be fully compensated if they cancel within seven days of check-in. Also, if a guest cancels within 48 hours of booking, they can receive a full refund if they cancel at least 14 days before check-in. 
• Strict: If guests cancel within 48 hours of booking, they can receive a full refund if they cancel at least 14 days before check-in. If a guest cancels between seven and 14 days before check-in, you’ll be compensated 50% for all nights booked. You’ll be fully compensated if they cancel within seven days of check-in. 

Airbnb hosts can also set long-term “firm” and “strict” policies, “super strict” policies, and a non-refundable option. 

VRBO cancellation policies

• No refund: All bookings are non-refundable.
• 60-day policy: Guests are fully refunded until 60 days before check-in. Bookings are non-refundable within 60 days of check-in time.
• 60/30-day policy: Guests are fully refunded until 60 days before check-in and receive a 50% refund (minus service fees) if they cancel between 30 and 60 days of check-in time. Bookings are non-refundable within 30 days of check-in time.
• 30/14-day policy: Guests are fully refunded until 30 days before check-in and receive a 50% refund (minus service fees) if they cancel between 14 and 30 days of check-in time. Bookings are non-refundable within 14 days of check-in time.
• 14/7-day policy: Guests are fully refunded until 14 days before check-in and receive a 50% refund (minus service fees) if they cancel between seven and 14 days of check-in time. Bookings are non-refundable within seven days of check-in time.
• Custom policy: Hosts can set their cancellation policy terms.

Which Platform is Best for Me?

Airbnb is more flexible simply because you can offer all kinds of spaces, while VRBO requires renting out an entire space. However, Airbnb and VRBO are great platforms for beginning investors and homeowners interested in entering the short-term rental space. 

Many real estate investors have turned hosting into full-time jobs by operating multiple vacation rentals all at once, and with enough experience and know-how, you can too! 

Build long-term wealth with short-term rentals

Vacation rentals can be an extremely lucrative way to boost your monthly income—but only if you acquire and manage your properties correctly. This ultimate guide to analyzing, buying, and managing vacation rental properties will set you up for immediate success and long-term wealth.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

When we think of startup culture, we often associate it with innovation, risk-taking, and a fast-paced environment. This doesn’t necessarily mean that you cannot benefit from traditional values and practices.

It might sound counterintuitive, but even as a startup founder you need to control (and even reduce) the ways in which you are innovative. The reason is that innovation is very costly because it is highly risky. The more layers of innovation (i.a. unproven ideas and practices) you employ, the more you increase your risk of failure.

Consequently, conservative values can significantly benefit founders. This realization is why we’ve focused on applying ancient wisdom to startups in our latest articles.

So, in this article, we’ll lay down some fundamental conservative business values that require no disruption. Hopefully, this will show you how not to reinvent the wheel.

1. Prudence And Risk Mitigation

Prudent and cautious decision-making principles can get you a long way, especially when it comes to financial decision-making. Startups often face resource constraints, and prudent founders make careful financial allocations to ensure optimal utilization of available funds.

This may involve negotiating cost-effective contracts, avoiding unnecessary expenses, and maintaining a buffer for unforeseen circumstances. By practicing prudence, founders can better manage risks, make informed choices, and increase the chances of long-term success.

It’s important to note that prudence should not be mistaken for excessive caution or an aversion to taking risks altogether. Startups inherently involve risks, and prudent founders understand the need to take calculated risks that have the potential for significant rewards. It’s about finding the right balance between risk-taking and risk mitigation, ensuring that decisions are grounded in careful analysis and consideration.

2. Ethical Business Practices:

Conservative values emphasize honesty, integrity, and ethical conduct. Startup founders who adhere to these principles establish a reputation for trustworthiness, which is essential for building strong relationships with customers, investors, and stakeholders.

It’s important to realize that as a startup founder, you are playing a long-term game. Your current project will likely have an outcome very different from the vision you are painting to your partners. This means that your reputation of competence and integrity is more valuable than the actual outcome of your current project because if you foster healthy relationships and a healthy reputation people will be happy to work with you in the future. And with more experience and a stronger professional network, your future success will be much more likely.

It’s important to note that ethical business practices are not limited to compliance with laws and regulations. They go beyond the minimum requirements and reflect a commitment to doing what is morally right. Startup founders who prioritize ethics as a core value instill a culture of integrity within their organization, attracting like-minded stakeholders who share their values.

3. Respect For Tradition And Experience:

Acknowledging the wisdom gained from established businesses and experienced entrepreneurs allows founders to leverage existing knowledge and avoid common pitfalls.

For example, engaging with mentors who have successfully navigated similar challenges can provide invaluable guidance, advice, and perspective. These mentors can share their experiences, offer practical insights, and help founders avoid costly mistakes. By tapping into the wisdom of those who have come before them, startup founders can accelerate their learning curve and make more informed decisions.

4. Work Ethic

Startup founders with a strong work ethic understand that success is not achieved overnight. They are willing to invest their time and energy into the development and growth of their business. They prioritize tasks, set clear goals, and exhibit discipline in their work habits. This value inspires them to work long hours, overcome obstacles, and persevere through challenges.

Moreover, a strong work ethic extends beyond individual effort. It also encompasses fostering a culture of hard work within the startup. Founders who prioritize a strong work ethic instill values such as discipline, accountability, and determination in their team. This creates a positive and productive work environment where everyone is driven to give their best and contribute to the startup’s success.

It’s difficult to predict what will happen in the housing market, even during normal times. Given that the economy is anything but normal right now, predicting what will happen in the housing market over the coming months is pretty much a fool’s errand. But it’s important to have an investing thesis, and it’s also fun, so I will try anyway.

Below I will share my five predictions for the housing market in the summer of 2023 and three important indicators to watch that could change my predictions completely. 

1. Mortgage Rates Will Fluctuate, But Will Remain Between 6.25% and 6.75% 

As of this writing (mid-May), the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate 25 basis points at their last meeting but indicated that they are considering a pause going forward. I think the assumption the Fed is done tightening is overconfident, as core inflation remains high and the labor market is exceptionally tight. 

Regardless of what the Fed does, I think mortgage rates will stay relatively similar to where they’ve sat for the last few months. Since peaking (so far) in November, mortgage rates have stayed in the mid-6s, despite the Fed raising the FFR several hundred basis points during that time. Bond yields have stayed steady, which means mortgage rates are steady. 

2. Home Prices Will Rise From Winter Lows, But Will Remain Down on a Year-Over-Year Basis

When we look at home prices, we need to look at month-over-month and year-over-year data. Monthly data shows the most recent information but neglects long-term trends. Yearly data does the opposite. 

When I look at sales price data, I see two things. First, seasonal patterns are holding. Prices have risen over the last couple of months after bottoming out in February. This is what typically happens. Secondly, although prices are rising, they are sitting below last year’s prices and are down year-over-year. 

I believe this is likely to continue. In my view, the market will follow seasonal patterns but will remain under last year’s prices at least through August. Although I don’t think it’s the most likely scenario, I think there’s a decent shot the national market actually shows positive price growth sometime after the summer. 

If you’re wondering about my track record with predictions, the last time I made a price prediction was back in the fall of October 2022, and I said I believed the national housing market would be down somewhere between 3-8% by the end of 2023. Right now, the national median sales price is down 2-3%, depending on who you ask, so I’m in range and still see this as the most likely scenario—but a lot can happen before the end of the year! 

3. Home Sales Will Not Recover

Seasonally-adjusted home sales volume is the lowest in about a decade. This tends to put downward pressure on housing prices but also has broad indications for the entire housing industry. Low sales volume hurts agents, loan officers, and other professionals serving the housing industry. 

That said, I don’t believe that volume will recover anytime soon because there just aren’t enough properties on the market, even if demand recovers. Which brings me to my next prediction: 

4. July and August Will See the Lowest New Listings On Record

New listings measure how many properties are put up for sale in a given period and are in the gutter right now. Nationally, they are down about 22% year-over-year; in some markets, they’re down more than 60%. There is not much on the market, and I don’t see any signs of that changing in the coming three months. 

As such, I see this July and August being the lowest totals for those months as far back as I have data. In other words, this July will have the fewest new listings of any July in the last 20 years. Expect the same thing for August. People just don’t want to sell right now. 

5. Regional Differences Will Reign

So far, my first four predictions have all been about the national housing market, but we all know real estate is local. Here are my regional predictions: 

• The Northeast will see the most price growth over the summer, followed by the Midwest.
• The South will be a mixed bag. Some markets (like Miami, Florida) will continue to grow, while others (like Austin, Texas) will struggle. 
• The West will see some markets rebound. It’s been well documented that the West has seen the biggest price corrections to date, but I think that might end in certain markets. Some cities like Salt Lake City, Utah; Los Angeles, California; and Denver, Colorado, have already shown signs of bottoming out, while markets like Boise, Idaho; and Las Vegas, Nevada, still show weakness. 

Things To Watch

The predictions above represent what analysts call a “base case.” This is what I believe to be the most likely scenario. But obviously, I don’t know what will actually happen, and there are reasonable probabilities that the market will outperform my predictions or underperform them. To me, the most likely thing that could shift the market away from my base case are: 

1. A U.S. debt default: As of this writing, the government is in a stalemate trying to negotiate an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. If that doesn’t happen and the U.S. defaults on its debt for the first time in history, it will almost certainly send mortgage rates up. Zillow recently predicted they would go up above 8%—and when they come back down would be anyone’s guess. If this happens, I think the downside case becomes more likely. 
2. The labor market: The labor market has been shockingly resilient in the face of rising interest rates, with almost every measurement of unemployment historically low. 

The labor market is strong even when you account for part-time jobs and people leaving the workforce. If the labor market “breaks” and unemployment shoots up, it will likely cause a recession, possibly bringing down mortgage rates and helping the housing market. That is, of course, unless the unemployment situation gets really bad (over 6-7%), and then it might negatively impact the market. 

3. Geopolitical turmoil: We all know there is a lot of tension with Russia, China, and generally in the world right now. International conflicts can really impact the economy, but there’s no way to know how without knowing the nature of the conflict. I just want to say that if there is some big international issue, it could throw off my predictions. 

Conclusion

This represents my current thinking about the housing market and where it will go over the summer of 2023. But all of this is far from certain. We’ll have to check back in the fall and see how I did with these predictions. 

In the meantime, I’d love to hear your predictions for the 2023 summer housing market in the comments below. 

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.