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Artificial Intelligence Is Taking Over Marketing

Artificial Intelligence Is Taking Over Marketing


Artificial intelligence (AI) has been around for decades. I won’t bore you with its long history, summarized well in this article. It has even had a significant role in the marketing industry for many years (e.g., predictive analytics used in many advertising platforms). But what has recently caught storm is the use of generative AI in the creation of many marketing creatives. Largely because the technologies are more accessible and easier to use than ever before. I feel the industry is at the cusp of a major inflection point, and you better learn what is going on in this space, or you may be left behind.

Industry Research

There was a very good industry research study completed in March 2023 by Botco.ai, a generative AI cloud chat communications company. They surveyed 1,000 marketing professionals across over 16 different industries and company sizes from 1 to 5000+ employees. The results were fascinating—they learned that a whopping 73% of the respondents are already using generative AI to help create text, images, videos or other content. That was the weighted average of B2B companies at a 78% usage rate and B2C companies at a 65% usage rate (I would have guessed the reverse of that). With me being in the 17% that were not materially using AI today, I figured I needed to learn more here, and fast, to stay competitive with our industry peers.

Content Being Produced by Generative AI

The content getting created by generative AI is broad in scope. The survey respondents said they were using it as follows: email copy (44%), social media copy (42%), social media images (39%), chatbots for customers (37%), website images (36%), SEO content (35%), blog post copy (33%) and marketing/sales collateral (33%). The rationale for using generative AI being: (i) you can improve your marketing performance (58%); (ii) you can improve your creative variations (50%); (iii) it is more cost effective than traditional ways of building creatives (50%); and (iv) it is materially faster creative cycles (47%). I would add the additional benefits of better personalizing the content to the exact user, instead of applying a one-size-fits-all approach to your marketing creatives.

And to be clear, the content being produced by AI is across all forms of creatives: text, images, videos, coding, etc. It is revolutionizing pretty much everything a graphic designer or copywriter or website developer used to do for you. As an example, check out this corporate video produced for my Restaurant Furniture Plus business by Synthesia’s AI technology. It was produced in a couple minutes from a simple copy and paste of our About Us copy on our website, without any human involvement or professional actors involved. That is pretty amazing (and scary if this life-like technology is not used in positive ways).

The Generative AI Tools Most Used

According to the survey respondents, these were the technologies most used by the marketers. ChatGPT (55%) for human-like text. Copy.ai (42%) for natural language processing. Jasper.ai (35%) for copywriting. Peppertype.ai (29%) for full article copy. Lensa (28%) for image editing. DALL-E (25%) for text-to-image generation. MidJourney (24%) for text-to-image generation. I am sure there are many others to experiment with, but these are the ones that the early adopters are using today. I personally played with a few of these. I would summarize my experience as the text based solutions were a lot more impressive in terms of producing high quality output than the image based solutions, understanding we are still early in the learning curve and technology advancements here.

How to Prepare… and What Happens if You Don’t

First, it’s time to embrace the simple fact that you need generative AI and that you can’t ignore it. It isn’t going away. So, slowly but steadily, immerse yourself in some (or all) of the tools above — how they work and what they can potentially offer. And if you are working with a marketing agency, make sure that it, too, is well-versed in all the advancements (if your agency is not currently using AI to improve campaigns, it may be time to look for a new one).

The ramifications for non-action will be swift: you either jump on board or prepare to eat the dust of the other AI first-movers — you will essentially be going into a marketing battle with one arm tied behind your back. Performance will suffer (including lower engagement rates compared to competitors), as will profits.

What Does This All Mean?

Hopefully, you have a better understanding of all the advancements that are taking place in the marketing world today. Will generative AI end up replacing your human teams? Not entirely. I think it will make the humans materially more efficient, and you may need less humans than before, but humans will still be needed for strategic direction and quality control, to protect their brands. For example, if AI generated copy will upset Google and hurt your search rankings, someone will need to review that content and make sure it follows all of Google’s rules. So, think of AI as an augmentation tool built for speed and efficiency, not as a full human replacement. You will still need to engage your marketing agencies or marketing teams, but they will be doing their work in material different, and presumably better, ways.

Every decade or so, the marketing industry appears to go through a rapid period of innovation. It feels like we are in the “early innings” of this most recent revolution, and I am excited to see how these AI technologies improve from here, and what additional AI advancements we will see in the coming years. It is time to pull up your boot straps and buckle in, as it is gonna be a helluva ride! Good luck as you experiment with these technologies on your own.

George Deeb is a Partner at Red Rocket Ventures and author of 101 Startup Lessons-An Entrepreneur’s Handbook.



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The Beginner’s Guide to Real Estate Development

The Beginner’s Guide to Real Estate Development


Getting into real estate development with low money down!? Many rookies assume that you need more money to develop, but there are a variety of ways to fund these projectsIt all depends on how creative you’re willing to get! Today’s guest learned quickly that you don’t need a huge pile of cash to start building your own properties.

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Today, we’re chatting with Terry Harris—a former professional basketball player turned real estate developer. When we last spoke with Terry, he was wholesaling real estate for a decent profit. Since then, he has transitioned into the development side of real estate and grown his business dramatically. Simply by bringing great land deals to developers and providing a valuable service, Terry was able to learn the ropes and gain enough knowledge to develop his own properties.

Whether you have huge dreams of building city skylines or an end goal of owning a rental property or two, you’ll want to hear Terry’s story. In this episode, he talks about how to find the best land dealscreative ways to fund projects, and how to assemble a top-tier development team. He also touches on our favorite topic as of late, partnerships, and how to bring real value to another investor when you don’t have the capital!

Ashley:
This is Real Estate Rookie, episode 301 niner.

Terry:
So for me as a developer, one of my deals actually, we bought the land for 25,000. We spent another 25 to pre-develop it and all in, that’s $50,000. We just got the plans approved. That is all that I needed for my construction loan.
Now my construction loan comes in and we’re able to build the whole house. And now the choice is mine of what I want to do after if I want to refinance it and keep it or if I want to sell it.

Ashley:
My name is Ashley Kehr and I am here with my co-host Tony J. Robinson.

Tony:
And welcome to the Real Estate Rookie podcast where every week, twice a week, we bring you the inspiration, motivation, and stories you need to hear to kickstart your investing journey. And I got to say, Ashley, I appreciate you throwing the J in between the Tony and the Robinson.
So for our rookie audience, there’s a reason why I like the J. First, there’s Tony Robbins who I get confused for all the time, and I’ve disappointed quite a few people because they’re like, “Oh my God, it gets me Tony Robbins.” When really it’s just me. And there’s also other guys in the real estate space named Tony Robinson. So I got to find a way to separate myself. That’s where the J comes from.
Terry shares a lot about his journey of going from a real estate wholesaler to a developer, and he shares some really interesting nuggets on what it costs to develop. I’m telling you guys, you’re not anticipating, you’re not going to believe what he says when he shares the price.

Ashley:
One of my favorite things about this episode is how we go so in depth about what you need before starting new development and who you need. Terry’s going to do a great job of outlining those first steps that you need to take.
He started out wholesaling, and he’s going to explain that pivot, that transition into new development, in case that’s something you are thinking about doing.

Tony:
So for all of our rookies that are listening, we promise you’re going to get a ton of value from hearing Terry’s story for a second time, and we can’t wait to share it with you.
But before we do, I want to share a review by someone of the username, ginalou. And Gina love to say, 5-star review on Apple podcast that says, “Wealth of real estate information. What a great podcast, full of excellent real estate investing nuggets. Thank you for sharing your journeys, finding inspiring guests, and providing a wealth of information for new real estate investors. When I was looking to get started in real estate investing, I came across BiggerPockets in the Real Estate Rookie podcast and it totally changed everything.”
So Gina, we appreciate you. Thank you so much for leaving that honest rating and review. And for all of our rookies that are listening, if you haven’t yet, it only takes a minute or two, please do leave us an honest rating and review on whatever podcast platform it’s you’re listening to. The more views we get, the more folks we’re able to reach and the more folks we can reach, the more folks we can help.

Ashley:
Terry, welcome back to the show. Thank you for joining us again on BiggerPockets Real Estate Rookie. Start off with telling us a little bit about yourself and maybe a little bit about your first episode with us.

Terry:
Yeah. So appreciate you guys always. It’s always great speaking to you guys. My name is Terry Harris. I started off playing professional basketball in the NBA G-League. From the NBA G-League, I got into real estate, just kind of found a passion with real estate and just started reading as much as I could about it, talking to as many people as I could and just got into it.
Was able to buy my first home on a FHA 3% down in Delaware where I was playing. And I believe our first interview was kind of me going over of how I got into real estate and the kind of niche that I was in currently, during that first episode, which was wholesaling real estate. And through wholesaling real estate, I was wholesaling land to land developers.
And the beauty about that was I was learning from developers as well, how they were buying land, what they were doing with the land and how they were developing it. And at the same time, I was also making a little assignment fee from the wholesale deal, so it was like a paid internship for me. So now I kind of switched the gears a little bit and got into developing real estate.

Tony:
Terry, how many wholesale deals would you say you completed and are you still actively wholesaling?

Terry:
I think I completed around about, I would say about 30 wholesale deals. 30 wholesale deals. It was a point where I was doing around three to four deals a month at my prime, you can say. But now, it’s to a point where I’m looking to wholesale deals for myself, my partners, to do land deals. So the wholesaling techniques and the marketing that I’ve used, I still implemented in my real estate strategies today.

Ashley:
Terry, how long did it take you to get that first deal and what did you have to do to get it?

Terry:
That first deal? I would say it took about four and a half months for that first deal. And that was kind of with learning and trial and error and everything. It took me a lot of calls and I didn’t really know how to do it. I didn’t know how to wholesale in efficient way.
I remember I just got PropStream, I bought a list of about 1500 names and numbers, and I would sit with three highlighters, red if they said no, yellow if they didn’t answer and green if it was a lead. And I would every day call 60 to a hundred. That was my goal. And I do that and get some appointments going, visit some property, see if I can get deals on the contract. And it took about four months to close something.

Ashley:
Can you just walk us through the process of pulling a list and what a list is and what PropStream is for maybe somebody who has no idea what that process looks like? Can you kind of break it down for us into steps real quick?

Terry:
For sure. So PropStream is just a software technique, where anybody can go on PropStream, you can see who the property owners are, of properties when they purchased it, if they have a mortgage or a loan on it, what it’s sold for. It gives you a lot of data on properties.
And I use PropStream, so I picked the area that I was actually, at the time I was playing basketball and I was training in, so I picked the area that was that specific area in California, and I bought a list of about a 1500 high equity vacant homeowners. And the reason I sought high equity vacant homeowners is because another wholesaler said this was a good list to target because one, they would probably be willing to sell at possibly a discount, and if it’s vacant, they’re probably not making money off of it.
So getting a deal like that under contract could be really enticing for an investor. So that was my initial target of what I was going to look for and I wasn’t going to stop until that list was complete or I got somebody who wanted, was willing to sell their property to me.

Tony:
Terry, you said you weren’t going to stop until that list was complete, just like ballpark, how many people or calls do you think you had to make before you got that first deal?

Terry:
That first deal was probably about 600 to 700 calls. 600, 700 calls, and I was doing that. I was doing a little bit of driving for dollars, so I would put your guys’ podcast on and I would just drive around the local neighborhoods and if I see a vacant house, I just put it on the list, probably about 600, 700 calls.

Tony:
Terry, I mean, kudos to you brother, because I think so many people listen to this podcast and naturally, hear the success stories of investors and sometimes they can gloss over the hard work that goes into being on this podcast. And a lot of people would’ve given up after 100 calls or 200 calls or 300 calls or 400 calls or 599 calls, but you push through, man. So I think there’s an important lesson to take away from that for our rookie audience.
One thing I want to ask, because you mentioned this a little bit earlier, but you said that you basically had an internship in land development by wholesaling first. So I’m curious, why exactly would these developers be willing to take one of their wing and give you free education, and what were some of those things that you learned by being kind of close in person with them as they were doing that?

Terry:
So it’s quite simple. I was providing them value. I was able to give them deals, off market deals that were below market value. So at the time I knew something, I was like, “I really want to develop, I really want to build something and create a cool looking home and I want to develop.” So my thing was like, “Let me wholesale land, let me wholesale something that I want to get into.” And that’s what I recommend, honestly to anyone to go and wholesale something that they’re looking to get into.
So land deals were my way of getting into real estate, and as I started wholesaling land to developers, they were like, “Keep them coming, keep them coming.” And it was just like a relationship and they were like, “Hey, we need something in this area.” And then at the same time, I was like, “So how’s that property that I just developed, that I just wholesale to you five months ago?” And they would say, “Oh, it’s good. We just took a loan for 400,000. We’re going to build this property for 400,000 and we’re going to look to sell it for 800K plus.”
And I’m over here thinking, “Wow, I made $8,000 off an assignment fee, but you’re going to develop this and make over a 300K profit.” I was like, “Hmm, this might be a better game that I can get into.” And that enticed me. Obviously the money, that was something enticing, but then again, it was just so cool to see something, see a developer’s plans, hit the paper, come to life, and then for them to do whatever they want to, keep it, sell it or make an Airbnb. So I was just like, “Man, that’s what I want to do.”

Ashley:
Terry, a hard part of being a wholesaler is first finding deals, but the second part is finding buyers. So how did you create that buyer’s list of developers? I mean, it’s such a specific niche that you’re looking for. It’s not like you’re selling a single family home. That could be a rental or it could be a house that you’re flipping. So how did you find these developers to actually sell these lots to?

Terry:
I speak to a lot of people and they’re like, “Oh, but finding the buyers is hard, isn’t it?” I said, “It’s the easiest part. It’s the easiest part.” And it’s just the same way where I go and find the sellers or the property owners is the same way I found the buyer. So I would go on PropStream and pull a list of everyone who’s bought vacant land in the same area of where I was looking to wholesale, and probably in the last two, three years, because if you bought vacant land in the last two, three years, you’re probably buying it to develop or maybe to hold onto it to see if it appreciates over time.
So I pulled the list of all the people who’ve bought land in the last two, three years, and I would blast out a text to them of all my deals, and of course, some people wouldn’t answer. And the people who did answer, I would make sure I get on the call with them, see how they’re interested and see, “What are you looking for if you’re not interested in this land?” And that just starts to build up, slowly over time.
You start building your own buyer’s list and you start to know now specifically what they’re looking for. And now, you’re not just building a buyer’s list now, but you’re also building a developer’s eye for deals. Because now, like, “Oh, these three of the best developers in this area want properties that are this size this big and this much utilities, and they want this because of this.” So I started to get that developer’s eye as well. So it also, you build a buyer’s list and then you’re also learning how to be a developer. So it’s two full things that you can get.

Tony:
So Terry, I want to comment on that before I lose this thought. You talked earlier about why the developers were willing to give you all of this free information and it was because you provided value to them. And Ash and I have talked about this a lot on the podcast, where we oftentimes get messages from people in the rookie audience who want to pick our brain or offer to take us out to lunch or dinner, and unfortunately we are busy running businesses right now, so we don’t have a ton of free time.
But if someone came to us and said, “Hey, Tony, I know you invest in these three markets and I’ve got a deal that’s 50% discount on retail value and I want to give it to you.” That was a great way to build a relationship with someone. And I think you found that as a good path forward.
And just as a quick side story, someone actually reached out to me recently asking to partner with me on a deal. And they’re like, “Hey, Tony, I’ll do whatever you need me to, this, that and the other.” And I said, “Look, I’ve got my team in place, but if you find me a deal, I’d be happy to work with you on it.” And his response was something to the effect of, “Well, no, thanks. If I find a good deal, I’m going to keep it for myself.”
And I thought it was such a weird response because they had reached out to me asking to work with me, and I gave them a very clear like, “Hey, if you can do this thing, I’d be happy to work with you.” But their thought process was almost shortsighted in the sense they were focused on like, “Hey, if I get a good deal, I’m going to keep it for myself. Not work on this relationship lead me long-term.” Whereas for you, Terry, you now have been able to elevate your own real estate business because you were so focused on giving value to the people that were a few steps ahead of you.

Terry:
And what’s crazy is in the beginning, I was kind of the same way a little bit. Even when you say that, when you’re starting to get going, you want to establish yourself, and I was like, “I want to get my own properties. I want to be a hundred percent owner, a hundred percent owner.” And when I sat back and really thought about it, “Okay, if me doing my own properties.” I have the capacity at the time to do two at max on my own. That’s it.
But I had the same kind of thing as I find deals and I found an investor who was like, “Hey, if you can find us deals, we can make you a partner and you can oversee these builds.” And now it’s come to a point where we together have bought eight properties together. So now I get two on my own and eight with them. I’m able to do 10 projects now.
So, I’m now, it’s like, “The power of partnerships can help you grow astronomically.” And that’s something that I have to mature and grow from, but it’s just in order to grow, I believe working with other people, working with partners is just the right way to do it and it’s the more efficient way to do it. But it’s so funny that you say that, because I can definitely relate.

Tony:
And Ashley and I are both smiling right now, because you said partnerships twice in that last sentence. And Ash and I just recently released a book with BiggerPockets called Real Estate Partnerships. So if you guys head over to biggerpockets.com/partnerships, you can pick up that book and learn how Ashley and I have leveraged partnerships to scale our own real estate portfolio.
So thank you for that little tea up there, Terry. I appreciate that, man. But one thing I want to go back to, you talked about building your buyer’s list and you said you would pull a list of all the folks that had purchased land in the area that you were focusing on.
My question is, Terry, were you waiting until you had a deal to present to them before you reached out? Or were you just reaching out preemptively to say, “Hey, my name’s Terry, I saw you bought land here. If I have something in the future, can I share it with you?” Which approach were you taking?

Terry:
I got the deals under contract, and I would have about two to three of my own buyers in the beginning. And then every time of course, I’d blast out to the people who I knew, but I would do the blast of just, I mean, I would not have any type of communication with them. I would just give a little bit of details on myself and give mainly details about the land. I’d give the Google coordinates and then just talk about the deal just very, very briefly.
And the thing is that I would message thousands of buyers, and I always knew two to three would be interested and about probably 40 people would answer, “Ah, not what I’m looking for maybe.” And then I would go and get that conversation going.
So I would always get the deal under contract first. But now I, in today’s market where buyers are about a little more slim, I would try to find, I would today in today’s market, try to find the buyers to find the active investors in the areas and kind of know what they’re looking for and then go after that area.

Tony:
Terry, I want to ask, so at what point did you kind of feel the confidence to make the switch from wholesaling the land to actually developing it? What was that moment or that milestone where you said, “Okay, today’s the day that I’m ready to take that next step”?

Terry:
I would say when I submitted my plans for my third project, I believe I had one that broke ground, another one that was about to be broken ground on, and then it was the amount of time that I really wanted to pay really close attention to detail. And I knew I wanted to be a developer, I wanted to be a full-time developer, and I started building partnerships and I knew a lot of people wanted to build.
So I was like, “You know what? Let me lock in on this. I want to spend time, instead of spending a lot of time on wholesaling, I want to spend more time learning how to read plans efficiently, learning how to maneuver through planning departments the correct way, read more about developing, connect with more developers.” So I really just was like, “I want this to be my full-time thing. I don’t want to be known as a wholesaler, I want to be a developer.”

Tony:
But Terry, even that first one, because you said it was like that third one where you kind of mentally made the transition to do it full-time, but I mean, even going back to that first development deal, how did you know that you were ready for that one?
Because development is such a, it’s a big step beyond wholesaling. I’m sure a lot of the skills translate in terms of finding the deal, but like you said, there’s so much more nuance that goes into the development. So when you did that very first one, how did you know you were already in that moment?

Terry:
I didn’t. No, no, it was, it’s just you’re going to learn. And the way I look at real estate is you are always going to learn. If you hold an asset long enough, it’s going to make you money and you’re constantly just going to get better and better and better. I’m not going to be, you go into anything, I’m not going to be the best right away, but you’re going to learn, you’re going to get better. You’re going to grow.
So I knew the first one was just like, “Look, it’s going to be a crazy learning curve and I’m going to just learn new things. I’m going to become, get more efficient, learn how to develop quicker, faster, and more affordable prices.” But I knew I was like, “All right, this is something that I’m going to, this is new, but I’m ready for the challenge.” And I was just super excited to get into it, really.

Ashley:
Terry, who were the first people that you brought onto your team? So as a real estate investor that’s buying rental properties, you may seek out a property manager. So were you going after architects, engineers, what did that kind of look like? What’s different from already buying a building than doing new development?

Terry:
I think the first thing was finding a good architect. That’s probably the first person that you want to get on your team, that is after you purchased the land.
And what’s good about finding a good architect and some that didn’t know before in my first development deal is I hired anybody on the first one. And it was, the challenging part was that, I had to go and find the civil engineer, I had to go find the surveyor, I had to go find, do all the other resources.
But now once I found, now on my third one, I’m using a local architect now, somebody who’s been developing the area for 20 plus years, has good image and knows how to develop in the desert. But he knows great local civil engineers. He knows a good local surveyor or a good local, somebody who could do a perc test.
So it was just doing things like that, it makes it way more efficient, it makes it easier for you. He lives right near the planning department, so he drops the plans off instead of me dropping the plans off. So that first step was getting an architect, and I think that can also find the right architect can make or break your project too. So that is very huge.

Tony:
I just want to add something Terry, because you’re kind of alluding to this, but there there’s an incredible amount of value in hiring professionals that are local to the market that you’re investing in.
We’ve had issues in Joshua Tree where we both invest Terry, with appraisals where sometimes these out of town appraisers would come in and they wouldn’t really understand the nuances of that sitting in that market. And we get these super low appraisals and we’d have to challenge them, get them reappraised and someone who’s local who better understood the market could come in and knock it out quickly.
Same with general contracting crews. They don’t understand the nuances of building in Joshua Tree, so they run into delays, that GCs that are born and bred in the desert, they already know how to navigate those things. So I think for most people when they’re trying to build out that team, if you can go local to someone that understands those nuances, there’s a tremendous amount of value there.

Ashley:
Terry, you had mentioned that you found the architect after you purchased the land. So let’s go back a little bit. If you’re doing the land purchase first, tell us about what made the land a good value. What were you looking at as to like, “These are the things I need in this parcel to be able to develop on”? And even the location of it.

Terry:
Every market is a little bit different. So I’m developing two markets right now in Joshua Tree in Los Angeles. So one of the things that’s common in every market that you have to look for though is your zoning code.
So if you’re buying in Joshua Tree most of the time or developing in Joshua Tree, you’re probably trying to develop a luxury single family home to make it an Airbnb. So what we want to make sure is, “Okay, are Airbnbs allowed in this area? Are single family homes allowed to be developed in this area?” In Los Angeles we’re developed, we’re multifamily, so we want to make sure, “Can we develop these X amount of units? Can we develop to this height? Can we develop to this square footage?” Just simple zoning codes.
So you want to make sure, I know some people, they buy some stuff on some lot, they think they can build three different homes and make them Airbnbs, but the zoning code will tell you differently. The zoning code will say, “No, only one house can actually be on this lot.” That’s it. So I think knowing your zoning code is the number one thing you want to do while you’re in escrow or even before really, before you even make an offer for the land.
The next thing you want to do is also know utilities know, “Okay, I’m buying this land here, does this land have water? Does this land have power? Does this land have sewer? Or do I need to put a septic or do I need to do a perc test and get a septic tank here?” Knowing this prior, so you don’t have any of these big hiccups coming into the process.
And then Joshua Tree specifically also is you have to be 40 feet away from a Joshua tree. So you also want to look, we can look at the satellite image and kind of tell how many trees are on a lot. So that affects us if we want to build or how big we want to build. So there’s a lot of little things that you have to look at, but you can do a lot of your due diligence while you’re in escrow before you purchase the land.

Ashley:
Terry, where are you finding this information? Where can you suggest somebody’s just starting out, they want to look at the code and find out this information? What are some resources they can go to?

Terry:
Oh, for sure. Well, first I think whoever’s looking to develop, know what you want to develop first. So if it’s that single family home and you know that’s what you want to develop, and let’s just say it’s somewhere in Florida, Boca Raton, Florida, you can look up easily Boca Raton city zoning and the city, it’s all public information. The city zoning code should be right there.
And if it’s confusing, I mean it takes a little time to read it through, but if it’s confusing, another thing that somebody can do is easily, you can call up the local city building department, say, “Hey, I’m looking to develop or build a single family house in this location.” You can give them the address, they won’t shame you or anything. “I’m a new person I don’t really know developing. Can I develop a single family house here?” And they’ll tell you straight up, “Yeah, you can build something here.” Or “No, you can’t.” And even I do this till this day.
I just bought actually something in Los Angeles, I made an appointment with the Los Angeles building department. I came in with the paperwork, “Hey, this is the land I’m looking to buy. This is, I haven’t bought it yet, but I want to make sure, can I build what myself, what I think I can build?” And when my architect says, “We can build.” And that’s just extra due diligence just to make sure that we’re not going to buy something and come to find out we can’t build anything whatsoever.

Ashley:
Terry, I think one of the points you made too, will play value into this as far as figuring out the code is if you are hiring a local architect who knows the area, they’ll also know the codes, but they may also know the code enforcement officer.
What can actually be a huge advantage if they’ve already worked directly with this person, have a personal relationship with them too. I think has been, in my experience, a huge advantage of seeing those relationships play together as far as getting your project continued on.

Terry:
For sure. And to piggyback on what you just said, when I first went to a local architect, one of the things, what I had issues with with my first architect was all the time you get corrections from the city and when you get corrections from the city, the architect has to fix those corrections, then you have to resubmit them. And that can make the process a bit longer.
So when I went to the local architect, I said, “Well, how long are you going to take to actually do the corrections when the city gives you corrections?” And the first thing he said to me, “I’ve been doing this for over 20 years with the city, I don’t get corrections.” So I mean to hear that.

Ashley:
Love the confidence.

Terry:
Yeah, I loved it too. And he still got corrections to this day on my project, but needless to say though, it was like he knows the city, the city knows him. It’s always a little more comfortable when you’re in that process and when you have respect for somebody.

Tony:
Terry, I just want to comment on the whole corrections piece because I’m good friends with the builder out in Joshua area as well, and he’s third generation and he’s been building out there for decades now. So he knows the ins and outs of everyone at the county’s office and he’ll bill the same exact blueprint, the same exact property on multiple parcels at the same time.
So he’ll have three lots that he’s building on in different parts of the city. He’ll submit three sets of the same exact plans to the city for the same exact property, that’s getting built in just three different locations. Each set of plans will go to a different plan checker and he’ll get back three different types of revisions on the same set of plans. Makes no sense, right? So there’s a lot of, I think nuance and depends on who you get that determines on what kind of corrections you get back.
But Terry, I want to go back because, you talked about how to find the zoning code, but what about the utilities? If I’m looking at a parcel of land, how do I know if I have water, power, sewer or what it’ll cost to get that installed if it’s not there?

Terry:
Two ways. In my local market in Joshua Tree, you can actually go online to the water district and there’s a map that shows you the waterline on every single street. And for a newbie though, to kind of define that website and kind of get into that, that can be a little tricky.
But another thing they can do is you can call the local water district. You can call them up, say, “I have this parcel of land under contract and I want to make sure we’re connected to water.” And they’ll tell you straight up like, “No, you’re not connected to water. It’s going to cost you 50,000, it’ll cost you 5,000 or it might cost you…” I’ve heard water parcels coming up to 150 grand. So you can find that with a two-minute call easily in your water market.
Electricity, electricity is pretty easy. You can kind of see the electric pole on the parcel maps and if you’re unsure either like for SoCal, SoCal, Edison out here, you can call them up and just say, “Hey, just wanted to make sure this parcel has electricity or is it going to be a process to connect to the electricity here?” Simple as that. And those are the two main utilities that you have to look for and it’s really quite simple for the single family houses.

Tony:
Yeah, interesting. We’re working on some development right now as well, and we have to call the local electric utility to try and get some cost estimates for that as well. So glad to know I’m doing it the right way.

Ashley:
Tony, I have a follow-up to that too real quick, is sometimes on the tax record it will actually say if there is a well or public or if it’s public water or the well, or a septic or a public sewer system too. I haven’t seen that it says that there’s electric access to it or not. But another thing near us is gas.
So if there’s natural gas that may heat the house or if there’s propane. Where propane, you actually have to come and get propane delivered to your house too, which can actually be, first of all a huge inconvenience but also can play a part into the cost of having the propane versus having the natural gas supplied to your property too.

Tony:
Terry, I want to ask about the architect piece because you said that once you found this local architect, that person knew the civil engineer, they knew the surveyor, and that just kind of became your linchpin for the rest of your team and that market.
So the million-dollar question is how did you find that architect? Was this person on Yelp? Is there a resource or database of architects that build in markets? How did you find this person?

Terry:
Referral for this one. Now, when I find architects though, what I do now is if I see a home or I see a building that I like, I really like, I’ll do research, I’ll go put the address in, I’ll go and find that architect. I’ll figure it out some way somehow. But the reason I do that is because if that’s the style of build that I like, and that’s kind of the vision, more than likely me talking to that architect will help to encapsulate that vision or what they’re trying to create.
And most of the time for somebody, if they’re trying to develop in Joshua Tree, go drive around, find the houses that you really like. Just a quick little pie, 30 minutes of some investigating. I’m sure people do more investigating with their partners or whatever, but if they just do a little bit of investigation, they’ll be able to find out, they’ll be able to find out who that architect is. But for mine, definitely it was a referral for one, but now I like to find an architect whose vision is very similar to my vision.

Tony:
So I just want to pull that thread on the investigation piece. So say, I find 123 main street in the city that I’m looking at, am I then going to the county and saying, “Hey, who is the architect that submitted these drawings?” Or what is that? Is that the right next step?

Terry:
You could that. I think you could do that. So Los Angeles, the data’s public, so if there’s an address or a building that I like, usually if you look it up on, there’s this website website called Urbanize. Urbanize writes to article about every building that’s being proposed, who the architect is, who the developer is, and I’ll go and gather.
I’ll say, “Okay, that’s the architect. All right, let me call him. Let figure out. Let me try to work with this guy, see what he is saying.” And most of the time they’re willing to work with you.

Tony:
One other follow-up question on the architect piece, are you finding the architect developing the plans and then looking for the land? Or do you find the land and say, “Okay, what can I build that matches this land?”

Terry:
I would say depends on the market, but I’ll find the land first. I’ll find the land first. And then for instance, if somebody put me in Tony’s lap, a beautiful land in South Joshua Tree right near the park, let’s say two acres, Tony. We’re going to need a very, very sophisticated architect that can do a magnificent build, because we want to maximize the opportunity of that lot.
Now, if it’s another lot that’s let’s say way up north in Joshua Tree and a bit of an okay area, not that many views, we’ll use a good architect, probably a smaller build, but it’d be a different architect than the one over there by a greater area. So I feel like there’s an architect for every project or there could be an architect for every project. So I like to find the land first.

Ashley:
Yeah. So let’s talk about pivoting into development. For somebody who’s listening to this and now has shiny object syndrome and how they want to go into development, what are some things that somebody can actually do to switch these roles, get into this strategy?

Terry:
I think the first thing really, is I think a lot of people think that developing is a lot of money out of pocket. And actually I’m developing some single family houses that have been less money out of pocket for me, less investment than some of the rehabs and flips that I’ve done. And at the end of the day, I’m putting a better product on the market.
So I think that one thing I want let a lot of listeners know, I remember I was speaking to somebody they told me, “Don’t develop unless…” Somebody said, “Don’t develop unless you have a million dollars cash.” And that was complete absurd to me. And then I found out that person didn’t develop, but it is just absurd.
So for me as a developer, one of my deals actually, we bought the land for 25,000. We spent another 25, let’s just concise number, 25 to pre-develop it and all in, that’s $50,000. We just got the plans approved. That is all that I needed for my construction loan.
Now my construction loan comes in and we’re able to build the whole house. And now I get to build the whole house. And now the choice is mine of what I want to do after if I want to refinance it and keep it or if I want to sell it.
Does it happen all the time like this? Maybe, it can, but my initial investment was about close to $50,000 just for one development deal.

Tony:
Terry, can we talk about the debt that you’re using? You said construction loan, what is that? What are the terms? How are you only able to allow the land costs in your pre-development costs to be all you have to put in, walk through the terms of that debt?

Terry:
So, I work with a couple construction lenders, but I found a new construction lender that works at 60% loan to value. So what they’re going to do is once you get your plans approved, then they can come in and the way that they come in at 60% loan to value, is that they’ll take your plans or your renderings of what the house is going to look like when it’s all said and done, and you will pay for a local appraiser to appraise those plans as if the home was built today.
So when they do that, so one of my homes for example, got appraised for a million dollars and at a million dollars the lender’s able to give me 60% loan to value. So they’re able to fund me $600,000. The contractor bidded the home to be built for 500K. So now what I’m allowed to do that, what I’m also allowed is I’m allowed to put the fees of the loan in the loan as well. And on top of that, the interest, obviously the interest will probably be six to eight months.
I also prepay those interests inside the loan as well. So now my initial investment is just the land and the pre-development costs, and if we build it on time, we don’t have to expect to being incurring other months of interest. And personally, I like the 60% loan to value because it gives me two options.
It gives me an option to refinance at 70 or 75% LTV. Now, I know I can pay the first back and then I get a little bit of money, cash out, refinance for myself. And then option number two is to sell it. And I always want to have two options when I’m doing development deals because I don’t want to bank on a sale, especially with high interest rates while I’m paying on these construction loans, things can get out of whack. So I just like to have two options to know I’m safe in these deals.

Ashley:
Terry, how many have you kept and how many have you sold?

Terry:
I’m keeping all of them. I plan on keeping all of them, and I like the strategy. I like the strategy to keep it because it also, a lot of times when you have to sell, you put it at a price where you have to sell it for. When I hold these properties with an intent to keep them, some of them I just throw on the market. I’m like, “Hey, if it goes at this price, it goes, if not, it’s the Airbnb and it’s still going to be cash flow for me.”

Ashley:
Do you want to walk us through the numbers on one of your deals and your experience of it? Doing a new development? Okay. Yeah. You got a deal in mind?

Terry:
Yeah. Similar to the one I did, but I’ll be more precise on the numbers.

Ashley:
Yeah. Yeah. We want to hear the numbers’ breakdown.

Terry:
Okay. Actually I want to show this. I want to really, really go deep into it with how I was able to develop this with no money out of pocket for me.

Ashley:
Okay. Yeah. Cool.

Terry:
So I found a deal, I got a deal under contract. I wanted to wholesale this deal for $22,000.

Tony:
A land deal.

Terry:
Land deal, correct. I blasted it out, I blasted out and I thought it was such a good deal. I blasted out. It was such a good deal. These two investors, never met them before. They were like, “Hey, come show us the land.” And usually I virtually wholesale land so I just like, “I don’t need to go out there.” But they were really adamant like, “Hey, show us the land.”
So I drive out there, I show them the land and I was looking to make, on this one, I was looking to make about 15, $20,000 assignment fee from wholesaling it. So they come out, they check out the land and they’re like, “Ah, what do you think you can do with this land?” I’m like, “Ah, this is a really good lot. I think you can get a nice single family home here. You can put it on Airbnb. If it’s a three bedroom with a pool, you can do upwards of high hundred thousands a year.” And they’re like, “What? You could do all that?” I said, “Yeah, for sure.”
And then I started showing them numbers of my Airbnbs performing and then I started showing them, what I was looking to CALCAP on my new constructions. And they, at first they didn’t want the deal, so they were like, “Huh?” They were like, “You know what? How about this? What do you have the property for under contract?” And I was just completely open. I said, “I have it under contract for $22,000.” They said, “How about this? We buy it at the price that you have it under contract for, but we bring you in as an equal partner and you run the show, you bring in the construction loans, you run the Airbnb and you’re an equal partner.” And I’m like, “Man, I don’t got the capital right now. This is everything I wanted.” There was a no-brainer for me, no-brainer, no-brainer for me.
Although, I haven’t really met these guys for a long time. The partnership just worked out so perfect and I was so grateful for it. So we go, we buy the land for $22,000. We spend about $25,000 for plans, permits. Plans and permits and all the pre-development fees. And we’re all in about 47. So you can say, let’s just say 50 for these numbers. And we bring in the construction lender. The construction lender comes in, and our property appraises for 1.05 million, so $1,050,000 and they give us the construction loan for 660.
So we had so much extra cushion in there. We packaged six months of construction loan interest in there. So really that’s all we’ve invested so far in the project. Can we go a little bit, can we splurge and probably do a little extra stuff here and there maybe and come out and be a little bit more money out of pocket? Yeah, we could, but that’s just the power shift of understanding how to use debt and understanding how to work with partners and to bring value to other people.
And these were older gentlemen, so a lot of the older generation, they don’t really understand the Airbnb game and they don’t understand short-term rentals. So it’s like a lot of us, like the newbies, rookies in this game, this is what we understand and this is real value that we can bring to other people. And for me it’s a deal that I’m $0 out of pocket for. So it’s a win-win in my opinion.

Ashley:
And that’s a super great point at the end that they put on the older generation as to, they didn’t have BiggerPockets when they were just starting out. They started building, they were just doing real estate investing and now that there’s BiggerPockets and you can reach out to people and find out all these different things that are going on, especially if they’re not on social media either, then it’s a lot harder to learn about all these different things that you can actually do with real estate investing.
So I think that is a huge advantage of knowing of all these new creative strategies that come out. Even midterm rentals, 30-day stays for traveling nurses, how that has exploded in the last couple years too. And that’s something someone may not have even have heard of or thought of that you could do. Or there’s somebody that has been doing that forever and they don’t know that you can put it on Airbnb. They’ve always just rented it to somebody else and all these things. But I think that’s definitely an advantage.
And Tony even and I have been talking about that a lot as to how not just the capital that you’re bringing to the table is the biggest benefit. There are so many other things you can bring as a rookie investor and knowledge is one of those for sure.

Tony:
And the only other thing I’ll add to that is that, I think that there’s, it just goes to show that a reinforce our point earlier about when you can provide value to people, they’re more willing to give you value in return. You bought these guys not only an amazing deal, but you brought them a skillset that they didn’t have. And that’s a big part of any successful partnership is that there has to be puzzle pieces that fit.
The second thing, Terry, was that you kind of had the courage, I guess, to partner with people that you didn’t know all that well. And I think sometimes people have this hesitation around, “Okay, I just met this person. Is this the right person to work with?”
Honestly, typically Ash and I would probably say like, “Maybe date them a little bit first.” But if you get a good vibe from them and it all works out, it just goes to show what happens when you kind of take that leap of faith. So just kudos to you man, for what turned out to be a really, really awesome deal. I guess last question on that piece, do you plan to continue working with them?

Terry:
Yeah. It’s actually a great partnership. It’s just like, “Look, we’re retiring, we’re trying to lay by the beach. You handle it.” And they come in obviously, and they put their input in here and there, but it’s one of those good partnerships where they see value in what I bring to the table from bringing in the construction financing to bringing in the Airbnb knowledge, all the data analytics that I put together for them. So they see a lot of value and a lot of upside to it. And I definitely see myself work with them.

Ashley:
Yeah. What a huge advantage, especially if somebody who’s looking to retire, they don’t want to go and take the time to learn and do research on everything you need to know to do this, when you can just partner with someone.
And I think a lot of people that have already become successful in one thing, that’s their next step is they go and partner with other people in other things that are successful at what they’re doing. So they don’t have to go and become an expert at a whole different business. So I think that definitely adds a lot of value.
So one last point I want to touch on here is what environment did you need to succeed? And do you think there were transferable skills that you gained from wholesaling?

Terry:
Mm-hmm. I think the environment in developing, there’s always obstacles. There’s always little hiccups here and there. It’s just part of the game and it’s really part of it. And just like wholesaling, there would be obstacles, things, but you’re constantly problem solving. You’re really constantly problem solving.
And I think I made sure I kept the circle of developers and if they needed value about the market or anything, I was always super adamant, I was going to give it to them, just be on the phone talking to them. But at the same time I knew that, “Hey, this is my first one. I need a little help here. Do you mind checking it out for me or going by?” And I made some really good friends from it.
And I remember one of my buddies, he’s a GC, he would just come by and check on the project, because he had some projects nearby and some days I’d be like, “Oh my gosh, these guys are doing this wrong. The inspector’s not passing this. What’s the deal?” And he’s like, “Brother, relax. It is developing. It’s supposed to be fun.” And sometimes it’s just in life in general about anything that we’re doing, it’s like, “Yeah, you’re right. Just have some fun. We’re developing. It’s fun.”
So I think being able to just do that is probably one of the most important skillset that you can have. And I would say developer, just anything, just to enjoy it. So that’s the skillset I’m working on the most of this day. It’s, once you get past that learning curve, you can really just say, “All right, cool. Now this is fun.” So that’s what I’m kind of veering to, but.

Tony:
Just one comment on that piece. I think it’s a super important point because it is easy to get overwhelmed. But I was reading some book recently, I can’t remember which book it was, but it was talking about how the version of you 10 years ago would probably be excited to deal with the stress that you’re dealing with today.
Because it’s, think about the ways you had to grow and evolve as a person to even be in a position to deal with that kind of stress. And when you can kind of frame it that way where, “Hey, the things that are kind of on my plate today are a result of the progress and growth that I’ve had as a person, as an entrepreneur, as a real estate investor.” It kind of reframes a situation. So yeah, man. Just a thought that came to mind.
Terry, dude, so much good conversation, but I’m so glad that we were able to get you back on the show. Before we let you go we got a couple more segments here.
All right, so Terry, our question today comes from Voltaire Gannet and Voltaire says, “Can you 1031 exchange into new construction homes?” So have you ever had any experience doing a 1031 exchange? And if so, do you know if you’re able to do that with new construction? I

Terry:
I keep most of my properties to be honest. So I haven’t had that experience yet. But I do hear that with 1031s, Tony, you would know probably better, but you have to kind of 1030 worth up into a property that’s worth more. Correct?

Tony:
Yeah. To an extent, right? So I’ve done one 1031. Ash, have you done any 1031s yet, also?

Ashley:
Not for myself, but for another investor, I did.

Tony:
Yeah. So there’s some limitations on what you can do. It has to be a kind exchange. So I couldn’t sell my single family home and go buy a car wash. So it has to be a single family home for another type of real estate. And I’m not a 1031 exchange expert either, but you can’t necessarily go, there are limitations on the value of what you’re selling versus what you’re actually acquiring.
I think based on what I’m looking at here, I think you should be able to 1031 into new construction as long as you’re able to check those boxes of kind exchange. So the biggest thing Voltaire is that, if you are thinking about doing a 1031, you need to use a qualified intermediary. So you can’t just go out there and sell your property and then tell the IRS, “Hey, I didn’t touch it, it’s just sitting in my savings account.” You have to hire a qualified intermediary to hold those funds for you, and there’s a bunch of paperwork they fill out to make sure that you executed the right way.
So if you’re thinking about doing a 1031, Voltaire, my first piece of advice would be go find a 1031 exchange intermediary who can help you facilitate that process.

Ashley:
Yeah. One 1031 exchange I did with another investor, I helped him with is he sold, I think it was a 20-unit apartment complex, and he ended up buying two commercial buildings and a vacant piece of land. And then he actually ended up keeping, I think $50,000 in cash that he ended up paying tax on that.
So he didn’t even 1031 exchange the whole amount. He did keep some of that, and that was just because he couldn’t find anything else and he was hitting his deadlines. But he ended up getting those, which a 20-unit apartment complex, which is a residential commercial property to two other commercial properties that were retail stores and then also vacant land.
So I mean, those weren’t exactly the same type of property, but they still fit into that model of kind exchange.

Tony:
I’ve also heard, and actually this is from a mutual fund of ours, Ashley Taro, but he told me about a reverse 1031 exchange where you can, there’s a way to do it backwards. So if you’ve already sold and bought the new property, there is a way to kind of go backwards and retroactively apply at 1031 as well, which I didn’t know about. But anyway, Voltaire, go talk to a professional. Ash and I are just podcast host, who knows if you can trust us.
Anyway, moving on to the next piece. It’s the rookie exam. So the three questions we ask every single guest. Terry, are you ready for question number one?

Terry:
Yes. Ready.

Tony:
All right. Now that you’re a developer, what’s one tool, software app or system that you use in your business?

Terry:
As a developer? I still use PropStream a lot. I still use PropStream. I like to look at the satellite images of all the properties. I like to know the comps. I want to know what new developments are selling for. I’m always constantly looking at what new developments are trading at or what’s going on. So definitely still PropStream, still PropStream.

Ashley:
What is one actionable thing that rookies should do after listening to this episode?

Terry:
I would connect with developers. I would connect with developers in your local market that you’re looking to develop in, and I would just talk to them and say, “Hey.” Whether it be starting to wholesale or, “Hey, is there any way that I can find you some land or anything? I have a marketing vehicle that gets me great off market listings and deals. So you guys are looking for anything?”
And then reel them in a little bit and then say, “What are you working on now?” See what they’re doing, and so now you’re able to start building that developer’s eye yourself. So that’s what I would definitely say. Just start connecting with them.

Tony:
All right. And question number three, Terry, where do you plan on being five years from now?

Terry:
Five years from now, I want to be building skyscrapers in New York City.

Tony:
Dang. I love that. That’s a good one, man.

Terry:
Yeah. Five years. I need my first skyscraper in the city. Yeah.

Tony:
Harris Tower.

Terry:
That’s a good name. We’ll go back to this podcast in five years and see that.

Ashley:
Well, it’s not quite five years ago, but a couple years ago. You can go back and listen to Terry’s episode on biggerpockets.com/rookie153. And I don’t think we had this segment then, but it’d be interesting to know how, if we did, what you’d be on track for that five years. So we’ll definitely have to have you back in five years to talk about that skyscraper development.
Terry, where can everyone reach out to you and find out some more information?

Terry:
I think the most responsive on Instagram. Instagram is terryharris15. I kind of did a little pause on Instagram, because I was learning a lot of developing and in the ground, but I’m starting going to get back on YouTube and putting more content out there as well.
So YouTube page is TCash, T-C-A-S-H, and those are the two, I, where on the YouTube page, I teach a lot about wholesaling, really go in depth of every software and everything I use in wholesaling. So if anyone wants to get into wholesaling, I think that’s a good little, check that out. And then Instagram if you want to reach out and just ask questions on developing in general, I’m there for that.

Ashley:
And for today’s social media, shout-out. I want to give a shout-out on Instagram to account I found, and this one is ladygina_real_estate_investing. And here we have Lady Gina shares her investment journey. She is a full-time real estate investor and she specializes in apartment buildings. So go give her a follow and see her story.
I love that we do these social media shares because sometimes it’s people that we see that are sharing value, they’re sharing their tips, and then other times it’s just literally telling you what they’re doing day-to-day or as what they’re doing as an investor. And I think both of those aspects are so valuable to keep you motivated, keep you inspired. So clear your feed of meme accounts and start following more real estate investors.
I’ll tell you a funny story real quick. So our partnership book came out, Real Estate Partnerships, and my mom was telling her friends about it. My mom was telling her friends about it, and she texted me and she’s like, “Oh my God, so-and-so was freaking out that you co-authored a book with Tony.” Blah, blah, blah. And I knew right away. I knew because I was like, “There’s no way my mom knows. My mom’s friend knows who Tony is. There’s no way.”
And so I was just like, “Oh yeah, how?” And she’s like, “Oh, she’s read his books, listens to his podcast, all this stuff.” I’m like, “Does she mean Tony Robbins?” And she’s like, “No, no, no. I’m sure I said Tony Robinson.” And I was like, “Okay, well Tony’s podcast is my podcast. So she listened to my podcast?” And she’s like, “Oh yeah, it was Tony Robbins.” She thought, but her friend was ecstatic. “Oh my God! Ashley’s associated with Tony Robbins? That’s amazing!”

Tony:
Add another name to the disappointment.

Ashley:
Yeah. Maybe it will sell more books because people will keep making that confusion. Maybe we should have left the J off the book title. A slight blur off the ending there.

Tony:
That’s funny. Yeah, I should lean into that more often. That’s true.

Ashley:
Thank you so much for joining us on the Real Estate Rookie Podcast. I’m Ashley, @wealthfromrentals, and he’s Tony J. Robinson, @tonyjrobinson on Instagram. And we will be back on Saturday with a Rookie Reply.

 

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Entrepreneurs, Create A Startup In A Specific City Or Region You Love By Understanding Its Problems

Entrepreneurs, Create A Startup In A Specific City Or Region You Love By Understanding Its Problems


For the most part, entrepreneurs create companies based on identifying and solving a problem without considering a specific location. But what if, based on lifestyle and other goals you first started with a location and then worked to try to find a problem worth solving. Granted, most startup companies today usually have a technology focus and could be run from anywhere. However, it is possible to start with a location, especially if you love to live there. So, how do you find a problem in a specific location?

You thoroughly examine its ecosystem. Let me explain. Every location, small town or big city/county has an ecosystem. And most ecosystems have similar components. The variables are the makeup of the population, the weather, the infrastructure and the local trends. While this approach may initially create a lifestyle startup, who knows. Patagonia started with a specific focus on climbing gear (could have been started in a mountain town) and has expanded its product line and marketplace over the years.

Here are eight ecosystem components that probably exist in almost every place with some variations. Understand and examine them in correlation to where you live or want to live and see if you can find a problem worth solving.

Education. No matter where you are, you can examine the education component of a local ecosystem and see if people are tolerating problems. The problems may be a local situation but often can be extended to other places as well. What does the education system need? What resources are they lacking? Do they need a local certification program for a developed workforce? How will remote learning create or solve problems? Keep researching the education component until you find problems worth solving.

Transportation. Bird scooter thought they were solving a major transportation problem, but for a variety of reasons, they have failed. Was there a real problem? Not sure. But take the time to study transportation by any and all means in your location and see if there are underserved customers or if there is a problem worth solving. Does not just have to be customer transportation, could be last mile delivery which seems to be exploding with meal delivery and Amazon next day package delivery.

Food. While seemingly ubiquitous, food, however you define, is can be different by region or city location. Local populations have preferences and are impacted by trends. In 1997 for example, there was one brewery in San Diego. Today, according to the San Diego Brewers Guild, there are more than 150 independent breweries in San Diego. Could Stone Brewing (sold recently to Sapporo) have grown so rapidly if they had not been embraced locally by craft beer drinkers in San Diego?

Water. Who would ever have though that in 2023, the water aisle in a local supermarket would be worth $46 billion in USA sales. And that’s just water in bottles. Now, with increased scarcity, you have lots of potential problems and opportunities surrounding water. Grey water systems in the house, drip irrigation, crop maximization and so on. Water and its problems and solutions are not going away any time soon.

Housing. With the cost of housing rising, more and more people are becoming renters. Study your local market and see what the opportunities might be. Rent collection software, home sharing, ADU dwelling construction, prefabricated homes, 3D printed homes…what does your local marketplace need?

Population. Every regional location has population statistics. Number of people, sex, income, children, etc. But examine the numbers and the data. Lots of Baby boomers who need extra services as they age? How many Gen Z and Millennials do you have and what are they doing? Are people having families or are they living like singles? What are the population trends, people moving in or people moving out?

Health. This not only encompasses the healthcare systems in your area but also the health and wellness of the local population. What are the health trends? What is the population age ranges? How are people currently living, how do they want to live? Are there healthy food choices or wellness clinics for quick care?

Hospitality/Tourism. Some towns and cities, especially if they are popular, are also tourist destinations. For example, you might want to live in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Nearby is Grand Teton National Park, close to Yellowstone and outdoor activities ranging from running, hiking, fly fishing, etc. The current population of Jackson Hole is 11,015 people. The annual number of visitors is 2.6 million. What do they need or better yet, want?



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Home Prices to Stall as “Deflation” Concerns Pop Up

Home Prices to Stall as “Deflation” Concerns Pop Up


Home prices are about to slowly slump, real estate agents get their listings held for ransom, “deflation” concerns begin to grow, and multibillion-dollar lawsuits could change real estate investing forever. In other news, it’s just another day in the 2023 housing market. Some say the sky is falling, others are optimistic, but what do the equally named yet unequally-haired Daves think will happen? Tune into this BiggerNews to find out!

David Greene and Dave Meyer are reviewing some top headlines on today’s real estate market. Whether you love them or not, real estate agents are at the center of this episode as new lawsuits and cybersecurity attacks put their careers at risk. And this is no exaggeration—one of these stories could foreshadow “the beginning of the end” for real estate as we know it, and David has some strong opinions to share.

We’ll also touch on how “deflation” could push prices down as the US economy enters shaky territory and what would have to happen for us to realize this notorious economic event. And if you’re ready to buy or sell a home this year, we have good/bad news for you (depending on what you’re doing) as Goldman Sachs releases their newest home price predictions for 2023 and 2024. 

David Green:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show 814.

Dave Meyer:
I think BlackRock is going to come along and develop something to do this. And oh, by the way, when you go to them to sell their house, they will buy your house first offer and they’ll say, “Well, if you sold it on the MLS, we predict this much, but if you sold it to us, we’ll give you 98% of that.” They’re going to be soaking up even more of the inventory and it’s going to be harder and harder and harder for your everyday person to be able to buy a house. And I feel like this lawsuit, we may look back in 10 or 20 years and say, “That was the beginning of the end.”

David Green:
What’s going on everyone? It’s David Green, your Host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast. And if you didn’t know, it’s the biggest, the best and the baddest real estate podcast on the planet. Joining me today will be my co-host, Dave Meyer, and yes, you guessed it. That means we’re doing a bigger news show. These are my favorite shows to do. In a bigger news show, we bring you news from across the real estate world, the financial market, the economic market, and more so you can understand the environment that you’re investing in and most importantly, how to use information that is relevant, up-to-date and current to make your investing decisions. Dave, welcome to the show.

Dave Meyer:
Thank you. I’m glad to be back. I feel like it’s been a while since we’ve done these kind of shows and obviously a lot is happening, so we have a lot of good stuff to talk about today.

David Green:
(Singing).

Dave Meyer:
Who sings that song?

David Green:
(Singing).

Dave Meyer:
Is that Creed?

David Green:
Stained.

Dave Meyer:
Stained

David Green:
It has been a while since we’ve seen cashflow in real estate. It’s getting harder and harder. But nice Creed reference there.

Dave Meyer:
Thank you. Well, it was a wrong Creed reference.

David Green:
That’s what interest rates have been saying, “Can you take me higher?” And the Fed said, “Hold my beer. Watch as I do so.”

Dave Meyer:
That was a really good reference.

David Green:
In today’s show, you’re going to be hearing about deflation. Goldman Sachs forecast cyber attacks hitting the multiple listing service and lawsuits that could impact real estate agent commissions. I’ve been paying a lot of attention to that one personally and it could change the way that real estate is bought and sold in a very, very, very significant way. All that and more in today’s show. But before we get into it, today’s quick dip, make sure to check out the BiggerPockets blog at biggerpockets.com. One of the articles we’re going to talk about today is actually from the blog, so stay tuned. All right, Dave, you’re ready to get into this thing?

Dave Meyer:
Let’s do it.

David Green:
First headline, deflation could soon hit the United States as real estate and stock prices are at risk of crashing, economists say. As a side note, I’m going to start adding “economists say” to the end of every single thing that I say in life and just see how well that plays out.

Dave Meyer:
Do you think people will just assume you’re wrong every time you say that?

David Green:
I think it’s more like or you have no responsibility for what you say as long as you claim economists said it. No one ever says which economist or where did they say that? So if you’re working at a restaurant and you’re like, “What do you guys like more, the salmon or the trout?” They could say, “Well, economists say salmon’s a better option.”

Dave Meyer:
I always want to know what the economist orders at every restaurant I go to.

David Green:
So according to economists, the US economy could soon be at risk of deflation, according to the Weymouth Asset Management Company. That actually helps that. We’ve got Weymouth here.

Dave Meyer:
All right, they’re on the hook.

David Green:
Yes they are. We’ve got some accountability. Wobbling commercial property values and a correction of lofty stock valuations would drag prices lower. And inflation accelerated 3.3% on an annual basis in July, well below the pace of inflation recorded last year. Dave, I know that you, like me, pay attention to this type of stuff. What say you about this prediction?

Dave Meyer:
I’ll just start by saying no, I don’t think that the US is at risk of deflation, at least the way the government tracks it, like the consumer price index because the way the CPI works is it tracks goods and services, but it doesn’t track asset values like the stock market or housing prices. When we talk about, yes, there is, I think, a risk that the stock market will go down, there is a risk that the housing market will go down, but that won’t be reflected, at least, in the official consumer price index. The other thing is that goods and services, which are what the consumer price index actually does track, are incredibly sticky. There’s very few times in US history and really even globally where you see deflation in terms of a service like going to get your haircut. When was the last time you actually saw that go down in price? Yours has gone to zero, David, so I know that that is deflated, but-

David Green:
That’s the secret to how I save so much money. If everybody wants to know.

Dave Meyer:
Just shave your own head. It’s so easy. But in reality, services in particular are very sticky and so no, I don’t think that we’re at risk of deflation. I think the real thing that’s going on, which is good, is what people call disinflation, which is basically the slowing down of inflation. So my belief is that prices won’t go negative, but they’ll go up less quickly all.

David Green:
So before I comment on that, Dave, can you just explain briefly to our listeners your definition of deflation?

Dave Meyer:
Yes. So deflation is just basically when prices go down. And disinflation, which I was mentioning, is basically the slowing down of price growth. And I think there’s a really big and important difference there because deflation where price goes down, that sounds good to people, but it’s actually really bad for an economy because it disincentivizes people to spend. If you just think about it a little bit, like if you were assuming prices were going to go down, you probably wouldn’t buy anything this month. You would wait till next month or the following month or the month after that because there would be a discount. And that reduces consumer spending, it reduces business spending and that slows down economic growth. So inflation is bad, deflation is bad. What you want is slight inflation, is at least what as you would say, economists say.

David Green:
Economists say. That’s exactly right. And it makes all the sense in the world because it’s the same way with the market. If you had a perfectly even buyer and seller market, in general the fear that buyers have would outweigh the incentive that sellers have. And you would get a form of a stalemate where a buyer goes and puts a house in contract, they find a reason to back out because that fear makes it easy to back out. So what I’ve always believed is you want almost like a 49, 51%. You want it to be a little bit more of a seller’s market at any given time because now the buyer thinks, well, if I back out because there was a crack in the sidewalk or there was a roof tile that’s broken, someone else will get that house and I might not get one at all.
It actually helps to make you get over your indecisiveness, and I think the same thing works with the economy. If you think there’s a chance prices will go down, you’ll wear that same pair of underwear for another nine months longer than you should. You won’t spend money. That slows the velocity of money and as the velocity of money slows, we all become poor, in a sense. You’re not spending money so the person that you’re spending it on, they’re not getting it so that they can’t buy anything. And it’s kind of taking the oil out of a car engine. It doesn’t take long before the whole thing gridlocks, you agree?

Dave Meyer:
Oh, absolutely. I think that’s a very good analogy too. The same thing that you just described in the housing market is true of basically the entire economy. You want people to have the incentive to keep spending and like you said, velocity, recycling money through the economy. That leads to economic growth. So yes, I agree with you. I think that that’s probably what will happen eventually. Inflation is taking longer than I think anyone would’ve hoped to come down, and I think there’s still a bit to go, but we’re probably trending in that direction. But again, that’s talking about goods and services. Asset prices are not typically measured in the traditional inflation measurement.

David Green:
That is a great point you made earlier that I didn’t want to gloss over. It is very rare that you ever see the cost of a haircut go down or the cost of an oil change go down or it’s tire rotation or really any… Prices tend to work like a ratchet. It can click up or it can stay the same, but it doesn’t go the other direction. It only moves one way. And so that’s what scares me about when inflation is rampant is it doesn’t go up quickly and then correct itself. It just goes up quickly and stays there. And that can happen much easier with the cost of goods and services than it can with wage growth. Employers aren’t just going to be shilling out money like vendors can shill out price increases. So you almost never see the money you’re making keep up with the cost of living and the wider that gap gets, it tends to stay at that same level of wideness.
I’m not articulating that well, but I think you know what I’m saying and it actually creates poverty, which is what we’re trying to avoid. We want everybody to become wealthier, so we just want, like you said, a slower increase in inflation. A nice predictable two to 3% is enough to keep people spending money, not hoarding things, not leading to a scarcity mindset where you’ve got people putting stockpiles of toilet paper somewhere so no one else can get it and at the same time doesn’t make anybody broke. So let’s hope that this is the case, as economists say. Last question, if we were to see deflation, what do you think would actually need to happen to the economy before prices would come down?

Dave Meyer:
This is not my area of expertise, but I would imagine it would have to be just a massive increase in unemployment. Where we get to the point where so few people are spending money that there’s sort of this race to the bottom. Where the different services have to cut prices in order to attract the fewer dollars that are going around. But I don’t really know. We saw a huge uptick in unemployment around the great financial crisis and it didn’t really lead to any significant deflation, so I don’t really see it happening just because the history of the US economy shows that goods and services, like you said, are pretty darn sticky.

David Green:
There you go. Thank you, Dave. What do we got next?

Dave Meyer:
All right. That’s actually a great segue to our second headline, which comes from the BiggerPockets blog and the headline is, Is Slow Growth, The New Normal For Home Prices? Goldman Sachs and Their Economists Think So. So basically what they’re saying is that housing appreciation from the pandemic, not likely to come back. Low supply, it’s putting upward pressure on home prices and a lot of people are hesitant to sell and they basically think that because rates are likely to stay high, they think above 6% for a while, that the average home price growth will be about 1.3% for 2023 and about 1.7% for 2024. So pretty slow, almost basically flat growth for the housing market. What do you think about that prediction?

David Green:
It’s hard to see prices coming down, so prices are frequently ticking up. We’re used to seeing that. And if you understand the way that psychology plays a role in prices, I think it makes us a lot simpler to understand. People tend to look at this frequently from this perspective of pure logic that, well, if the cost of living’s going up and interest rates went up, the math says prices should come down, but people don’t make decisions on math. I’ve never met a seller of their home who listed it at $600,000, who saw that inflation came out at a certain level or unemployment was too high and they said, “Let’s drop it to 592.” That’s the appropriate response. They don’t make the decision to drop their price until emotionally they’re in so much pain because they can’t get anyone to buy it that they finally do and they never drop it from 600 to 400 and create a bidding war and get it back up to 580.
They always say, “Let’s go from 600 to 595 and see what happens.” Those three words, “See what happens,” are frequently spoken about in these situations. It doesn’t work though because buyers don’t care. It’s hard for the seller to think of it from the perspective of the buyer, and it’s hard from the buyer to think of it from the perspective of the seller. Sellers drop their prices when their house has been on the market 90 days and nobody wants it and they have no choice. And if you get any kind of stimulus that happens during that 90-day period, they usually don’t have to drop the price, especially when we’re in the situation we’re in now where there is not enough supply. All the good inventory is still getting a ton of demand. Investors want these homes. People that are tired of their rent increasing want these homes.
People that want a place to invest that they can beat inflation want these homes. People that don’t have $600,000 cash that want to leverage money from the bank, they want these homes. It’s still the bell of the ball. Everybody wants the real estate, so it’s hard to see prices coming down. When they do come down, they tend to crash. I’ve only seen in my lifetime, prices come down when there was an extreme difference in supply and demand. There was way more supply than demand. It’s not talked about, but in the 2010 era, there was a lot of new home construction that was being built way more than was needed. So builders are watching prices go up. The lay person who doesn’t understand the fundamentals of real estate is watching prices go up. Everyone’s buying homes and builders were like, “Shoot, let’s just build them and sell them like hotcakes.” And people are scooping them up. Poor construction quality, bad areas, not understanding the taxes of it.
But when the interest rates started to adjust, it wasn’t just that the homes became more expensive, it was also we had way more houses than we needed. Now the speculative buyers back out of the market, prices are crashing because there’s way too much supply there. That would have to happen. But like I said, prices don’t tend to tick down. They tend to tick upwards because they can’t fly upwards because of our appraisal system. If somebody sells their house, that same buyer that put on the market for 600, if someone’s willing to pay 800, but they’re using financing, the appraiser’s not going to let us sell for 800, he’s going to say 625. So they have to tick upwards and they don’t tick downwards. They tend to crash downward.
So it looks sort of like the stairway as they go up and then a slide as they go down and then a stairway as they go back up again. So if people are expecting prices to just continually slowly drop, it’s hard for me to see a scenario where that would happen. I think it’s more like what you mentioned in the last segment, the disinflation, that they will not be going up as fast, but in general, people feel more comfortable buying homes when they see prices going up and people feel more comfortable selling their home when the price is going up.

Dave Meyer:
I agree with this whole premise that the market will be relatively flat over the next few years. I could see that coming, whether they drop a little bit this year, a little bit next year, go up a little bit this year, next year. Obviously no one knows. But to me, this whole concept of where the market’s going over the next year comes down to the idea of affordability and houses have just become deeply unaffordable. They’re at a 30 or 40 year low, but there are different ways that affordability can improve itself, and I think a lot of people assume that the way that affordability is going to get better is by the housing market crashing because that is a way that affordability can improve. But we had a guest on the market recently who was talking about how another way for affordability to improve is just for the market to grow steadily and slowly while wages catch up over the next couple of years.
And I can see some validity to that logic where I think we’re in for this kind of stalemate for the foreseeable future where there’s going to be relatively low supply and relatively low demand. So I don’t see prices moving too far in one direction or another, but hopefully. We have seen now, two months in a row, where wage growth has outpaced inflation. That’s a very new trend, and so it’s uncertain, but if that improves, I do think that is a good hypothesis, at least, here by these economists that maybe the market’s relatively flat, wages get a little bit better over the next few years, but this guest that we had it on the market said it’s going to take till 2027. So it’s not like this is going to happen overnight, it’s probably going to take several years, even if this scenario plays out at all.

David Green:
There’s a lot of very smart people that are all still buying real estate. The people who analyze all the different financial options that are out there to put money into find the most growth, a lot of these big firms and funds are all getting into the space of real estate. So just because it’s not as good as it used to be does not mean that it is bad.

Dave Meyer:
Yes. No. And honestly, I think people are constantly surprised by this, but as an investor, a flat market is fine for me, I don’t see that as this real negative detriment. I would like it to outpace inflation. I would like to see something where home prices at least keep up with inflation, but I’m not counting on that as being the main profit driver for an investment, but I don’t want it to lose value against inflation.

David Green:
The fundamentals of real estate are actually almost designed to make it make sense even in a flat market. So the amortization of your loan, every loan a little bit more goes towards your principal reduction as opposed to the interest rate. That benefits you. Even if the growth is flat, you’re still making a little bit more every month than you did the year before. The leverage component of it. So you buy a $500,000 house, if inflation is at 5% and your house goes up by 5%, that would be about, a year ago, from 500 to 525. But you probably only put $100,000 down on that $500,000 home.
So that 5% increase in the home value of 25,000 in equity equals a 25% on the increase in the money that you put down. So even when real estate appears to be growing slowly or staying flat, it exponentially benefits the person who used leverage to buy the asset. And this is before you get into the tax advantages or the rent increases, the ability that you could have bought it below market or you could have added value to it. It’s just so better than all your other options. There’s nothing I could do if I buy Apple stock to make Apple perform better, but it is the case with real estate.

Dave Meyer:
Very well said. Housing prices are not your returns.

David Green:
All right, next article here. Real estate agents grapple with cyber attacks on Rapattoni. A ransomware attack has crippled Rapattoni, a Southern California data host for property listings. So for those that don’t know, Rapattoni is like the software that is used to power a lot of the MLSs across the country. So if you’re a realtor and you work in Tennessee versus Alabama versus California, your MLS doesn’t look exactly the same, but there are companies that make software that the MLSs will purchase and that’s what the agent is trained in when running their specific MLSs in their area. In California, it’s weird, I can be looking in the Bay Area and then I can move out to the Central Valley and it’s two completely different forms of software.

Dave Meyer:
That’s weird.

David Green:
I have five different MLSs I belong to and if they’re not made by Rapattoni, it’s a completely different learning curve, to have to learn all of the different ways. It’s not fun.
Bay Area real estate service information and clients fell victim, the hacker encrypts the victim’s data and demands a ransom for its release. Some agents are now unable to add a new property price, adjust or access latest property information. So this is similar to what we see happening with social media where if they can figure out your password, they can hack your Instagram and say, “Hey, those 400,000 followers that you have, you don’t have them any more unless you pay us what we want.” They can actually hold people’s Instagram’s ransom. Now this is happening with the MLS, so if you’re selling your home and you have a listing agreement with the broker, they put your house on the market and you want to update the information, you want to adjust the price, you want to add another property in there, they can’t do it unless these ransoms are paid. What do you think, Dave?

Dave Meyer:
Unfortunately these types of things are happening more and more and it always hurts when it happens in your own industry, but I guess I’m not super surprised. I don’t know Rapattoni that well, but the MLSs I’ve been exposed to don’t seem like the most sophisticated software technologies that I’ve seen, and unfortunately this has real impacts on the lives of these agents and people who are just trying to go about their business. So I don’t know. It’s hard. It’s something that I hope will get resolved but maybe will be the impetus for more real estate agents and the whole real estate industry to take cybersecurity a bit more seriously because unfortunately, that just seems like the reality is that everyone is at risk, as you said, whether it’s your Instagram account or your bank account or whatever. These are things that unfortunately are just a part of modern life right now.

David Green:
The threats are all from the technology element, and nobody would’ve thought before this happened that this was a thing that could happen. I know a lot of people are unaware of how significant wire fraud is, but as a Real Estate Agent, I’m acutely aware of this one. It’s like the most brilliant crime, if you’re the criminal, where you find out somebody is selling their house and you email them and say, “Hey, I’m the title company. Wire your funds to this wired number or bank and the person does and $100,000, $400,000, $800,000 is gone.” There’s no way to get it back. And it’s so simple. They could just send out a bunch of these emails. There’s no recourse. You don’t have to go meet anybody in person.
So when we’re selling houses as an Agent, it’s like double, triple, quadruple checking. This is your title officer, this is what their voice sounds like. They’re going to be calling you. Don’t wire the money until we’ve confirmed and they’ve confirmed that this is the right place to actually send it. And we were talking before we recorded about how easy it is to deepfake someone’s voice. That just got me thinking, oh man, how many people are going to be fooled by that in the beginning?

Dave Meyer:
Oh, it’s terrible. It’s so scary. Now, if I fund a deal, I invest a lot in passive deals, I’ll insist on doing a $1 wire transfer to them to make sure that it goes to the right person, even though you pay a little fee. Just to make sure because wire fraud is terrifying. There’s absolutely no recourse if something goes bad for you.

David Green:
There’s no insurance for that. No one’s covering it. It’s just gone.

Dave Meyer:
One of the questions I have about this is just about the MLS in general. In my opinion, I’m not an agent, so you have way more experience with this than I, but it seems like a very antiquated system and that the way that all of these, like you said, different MLSs work together and the data’s aggregated is perhaps not a great system. And so not that I am happy that this happened, but maybe this will help spark some innovation in the MLS industry because I think there’s a lot of room to improve there.

David Green:
Well, there’s some room to improve in the entire real estate market in general. It’s funny you say this because I was just at a Keller Williams event. I was speaking there and I’m in the investor world and I’m in the agent world, and so I see where both sides don’t see the other’s perspective. And I had this little paradigm shift where I realized a lot of agents do not want to work really, really hard to find that client, like a wholesaler will, because their commission’s going to be a lot less and it’s not a guarantee that they’re actually going to close that buyer. There’s a lot of work that goes for the agent after you find the client, now your job starts, now you have to do a whole bunch of stuff. You probably only close one to 3% of the buyers that you’re working with.
People don’t realize that when they wonder why is a buyer agent commission so high? Well, if they close 100% of people, it’d be a lot lower, but it’s not that way. Then they have all the regulation, they have all the paperwork, they have all the lawsuits they have to worry about. They have a ton of education on how the MLS works and what the rules are of the MLSs and what the rules are for all the documentation that has to be done and the compliance issues. It’s incredibly complicated to go through the process legally, of using a realtor, versus the wholesale side is kind of the wild west. You, in most cases, do whatever you want and if you did break a rule somewhere, there’s not a whole lot of people that ever find out about it. It’s very rare that there’s any kind of recourse.
And so trying to convince an agent that they have to have the lead generation skills of a wholesaler with a much smaller amount of money they’re going to make and all of the fear of what could go wrong and all the work, you can see why it’s hard to get a good real estate agent. And so I agree with you. There is a lot of things that need to change with the way the industry works, but I understand why it’s tough, and I think for people that are on the outside looking in, they can’t understand why it’s so complicated. But whenever there’s a lot of regulation like this, it makes it complicated. And now we add pirates hacking into this stinking software and holding people hostage.

Dave Meyer:
It’s terrible. Well, that is a good segue to our last headline today, which I’m very curious to hear your opinion on because this one affects you directly or could. The headline is, The Multi-Billion Dollar Lawsuit That Could Radically Reshape How We Buy and Sell Homes Forever. On On The Market, we just actually had an expert on this topic come and talk to us about it, and basically what’s going on is there’s two class action lawsuits that could impact how agent commissions are paid out. They are looking to “decouple how agents are paid,” so basically buyers and sellers would pay for their own representation. That’s not usually how it works. Now, typically, the seller’s agent collects the commission and then pays out the buyer’s agent, and so this could be a really important thing that will obviously impact agents, but could have all of these ripple effects in how buyers and sellers work in the housing market. So I’ll just leave it there because, David, this obviously is right in your wheelhouse. I’m curious to know what you think about it.

David Green:
So here’s how it works right now, and then I’ll explain what this lawsuit is trying to accomplish, and then if it passes, how things would change. The way it works now, the seller pays the commission for both agents in general. So the listing agents will go and negotiate the commission that they’re going to get for their side as well as the buyer’s side. And sellers do this because they’re trying to get as many buyers for their houses as they can. And if the buyers had to pay for their own commission, there would be a lot less people that are interested in buying homes. Now it actually comes at a price. You can’t get in the car and drive around and look at houses for four months and it’s free to you. You’re going to have to pay. The same reason that people don’t call lawyers and have long conversations with them like they do with real estate agents because they’d be billed for every hour. The industry would be a lot different.
But what will frequently happen when the market gets too hot, which is what we saw, it was out of balance. The sellers have had way, way, way too much leverage in general. It’s unhealthy when you get to 90, 10 in favor of the seller as opposed to the 51, 49 I mentioned earlier. As listing agents realize that when they go say, “Hey, it’s going to be a 6% commission,” which typically has been 3% to buyer, 3% to seller, that the people selling their home would say, “Well, I don’t want to pay 6%. I want to pay five. I want to pay four and a half.” That’s always the struggle that you get into. So if a listing agent said, “No, I don’t do that,” they would just go find a discount agent. They’d go find a person who’s willing to do it.
That person sucks. You get a terrible job. Nobody blames themselves and say, “That’s what I get for paying a low commission.” They blame the real estate agent, they blame the industry. They call and yell at the broker. It causes all kinds of problems. And then you had a lot of brokerages that formed that were like, “Well, we’re here because we’re cheap, not because we’re good.” Which brings down the reputation of real estate agents as a whole. And all the agents listening to this are all saying, “Amen, hallelujah,” in their cars because this is a struggle that a lot of them have. Well, instead of losing the deal to somebody else because that person will take a lower commission, they said, “Yes, I’ll do it at 5%.” And then they kept 3% for themselves and gave 2% to the buyer’s agent. Now the seller doesn’t care.
All they care about is if they get their house sold, they probably didn’t even pay attention to what was happening. Or if you took it at 4%, they would pay 3% to the listing agent and 1% to the buyer’s agent. Now, that used to be something that wouldn’t work because all of the buyer’s agents would see there’s a 1% commission on this house. I’m not going to recommend it to my client because I’m going to make a third of the money as if I showed them a different house. But when realtors sold their rights to the MLS to Zillow and Redfin and realtor.com and Trulia, now everybody can see the house regardless of what the commission is. And realtors didn’t want to tell their clients, “Hey, that’s a 1% commission. You’re going to have to pay me the other 2% yourself if you want to buy it.” Because then the client would say, “Fine, I’ll go use another realtor.”
And you get into the same thing or there’s always someone willing to do it cheaper, and you don’t think about the fact that the cheaper person usually is going to give you a worse experience and you probably lose money because this is such a high ticket purchase to be gambling with. This lawsuit is a bunch of sellers that got together, my understanding of it, and said, “We don’t think we ever should have had to pay the commission for the buyer’s agent.” Now, I’m sure this was a class action lawyer that went and got a bunch of people that sold their house and who’s not going to say, “Yes, I’ll take some free money. I sold a house in the last 10 years.” And they said, “We never should have had to pay the buyer’s agents. They should have paid their own. So now we’re suing every brokerage that sold our home, even though we agreed to this in our listing agreement…” A contract that was signed. Saying, we should be compensated for all the money we pay to buyer’s agents.
Now, if this passes, buyer’s agents will no longer be compensated by listing sides. Now let’s talk about what the future would look like if that was the case. If you have to pay for your own buyer, I think a lot of people are not going to pursue home buying as much as when you got free representation. That’s one of the big perks of when you’re scared of being a home buyer. You have theoretically this licensed professional with experience that will hold your hand and walk you through a complicated process and you don’t have to pay them. In fact, you don’t have to pay for a lot of the stuff that goes into buying a house. You’re probably putting 3.5%, 5% down if this is a primary residence. So the bank’s putting in way more money than you. The listing agent is paying the commission for your person.
You’re paying for a home inspection and appraisal and whatever closing costs you have on the loan, and a lot of the time those closing costs can be wrapped into the loan. So even though we feel like real estate is expensive, it is still highly leveraged in most cases. If buyers had to pay for their own agents, I think many of them wouldn’t, or they would pay a very small fee. You would see brokerages pop up and they’re like, “Hey, we’re going to use AI to draft up a contract for you. We’re going to ask you a series of questions. We’ll fill out the form, we’ll submit it on your behalf, and now it’s up to you to try to get that offer accepted,” which is not good when there’s 10 offers on every house or five offers on every house. So now you’re going to have to call the listing agent and represent yourself, more or less, because you’re not going to get a professional that’s good at doing this, that’s going to do it for $500.
And I think that’s putting a lot more leverage on the hands of the sellers. This is creating even more imbalance to where the sellers are going to gain even more power. It’s like commercial real estate. You don’t go get an agent to represent you buying a commercial property. The listing agent is the only agent involved in the transaction most of the time, and they are clearly there to represent the seller because that’s where their bread is getting buttered. The expectation is that if you are buying commercial real estate, you are doing this because you already know how it works. You do not need your handheld, you do not need a person to walk you through this transaction. It is a buyer beware scenario. It’s ridiculous to expect a residential home buyer to have that level of understanding and acumen when it comes to buying a home, especially if they’ve never done it.
That will put even more power in the hands of somebody like us who buys real estate all the time and understands what we’re doing. It makes it harder for the average Joe to buy wealth. That’s why I hate this potential outcome. It’s going to give more power to sellers. It’s going to give less power to the people we want buying real estate, which are the people that are just trying to get into the game and want a fair shot. I can see this just becoming really ugly and making it so that real estate ownership is something that only the elite privileged wealthy people are able to do because you’re going to need a lot of money just to pay for the person to help you buy it.

Dave Meyer:
It’s super interesting. I have a hard time wrapping my head around it because like you said, it could obviously give sellers more power. I wonder would it decrease the number of buyers, which would just, like you said, could increase the number of investors or I think one of the worst possible outcomes is that there’s just a lot of really bad buyer’s agents who will do it for almost no money, and I think that seems like a really bad potential outcome, and I certainly hope that’s not… It’s a huge financial decision and agent-

David Green:
It creates a race to the bottom. That’s my prediction is that probably 75% of buyer’s agents will not be needed. So everyone who holds a license as a real estate agent, they typically start their career with buying, man, 87% of them are out within the first five years. Of the 13% that make it past five years, maybe 10% of them get into the era where I do mostly listings. It’s incredibly hard to get good at selling homes, but that’s where your skills come into play. It’s much less emotional and it’s much more like, “Well, how good are you at doing this?” Which is why I prefer selling homes. My knowledge of real estate benefits my clients a lot more than when it’s a buyer and you’re not competing with the other side, you’re competing with the 10 other people trying to buy the house. You don’t have leverage there.
Well, you’re going to knock out most of the buyer’s agents, the few that remain are going to have to take it for peanuts. So you’re not going to be getting highly skilled, educated, qualified professionals that are really good. You’re going to get more or less an Uber driver. I’m willing to take you to the house, walk you through it, ask your questions, use the software at my office that tells me how to fill out an offer, submit it, and you’re on your own because you’re paying 495 for my services or whatever. And there’s nothing wrong with driving an Uber, but I don’t think that you have to be a Formula One race car driver to be good at driving an Uber. You don’t really need to have any skills other than the ability to use navigation. I think that will happen to the buyer side.
Now you have all these other agents that can’t make money buying houses, so what are they going to do? They’re all going to chase after sellers. Well, now that sellers have five times as many agents that are competing to sell their home, you’re going to see billboards everywhere. We sell homes for half a percent. We do a flat fee of just $800, and AI is going to wretch into this space and take all of the personal element of it out. It’s just going to be a race to the bottom, who can sell homes for the cheapest, which means that the buyers and sellers will be at the mercy of whoever is better at playing that game.

Dave Meyer:
And it’ll probably be some big technology company like that.

David Green:
That’s exactly… I think BlackRock is going to come along and develop something to do this. And oh, by the way, when you go to them to sell their house, they will buy your house first offer and they’ll say, “Well, if you sold it on the MLS, we predict this much, but if you sold it to us, we’ll give you 98% of that.” They’re going to be soaking up even more of the inventory, and it’s going to be harder and harder and harder for your everyday person to be able to buy a house. And I feel like this lawsuit, we may look back in 10 or 20 years and say that was the beginning of the end.

Dave Meyer:
Do you think it’ll pass though? Do you have any sense of that?

David Green:
I, at first, thought this was complete BS, on its face, I really thought that there’s no way this makes it this far because when you fill out a listing agreement with a listing agent, it very clearly says, “This is the total commission. This is the portion that goes to the buyer’s agent.” And if you just blankly sign something like that, I don’t think you can come back and say, “I didn’t realize I was paying for the commission of the buyer’s agent,” or I believe their argument’s even worse than that. It’s, “I never should have had to in the first place.” If you said, “Hey, did you pay more than you wanted to for that car, would you like to come back and sue them because they should never have sold you a car for that much money?” Everybody in the country is going to say, “Yes, I’ll take some free money. I’m mad. I had to pay that for a car.”
So I’m not surprised that sellers were all jumping on this bandwagon to try to get money back, but I’m shocked it went this far. I thought a judge would’ve thrown this out a long time ago saying, “Hey, you agreed to do that. If you didn’t like it, you could have said no. Here’s a contract that spells out, in black and white, you saying this is something you want to do.” So I can’t say if it’s going to pass or not. I’m getting more scared, the more time that goes by, it seems like it’s getting more and more legit.

Dave Meyer:
It’s super interesting. I have no idea, but just objectively, you do see these lawsuits every couple of years. Like that Rex Company was suing NIR. I think that one just got thrown out, but for a long time, people have been trying to change the way that real estate agents get paid, and it hasn’t happened. So this does seem to have gotten further than many lawsuits, but it’ll be interesting. I think the trial, they’re slated to start this fall, I think in October, so that’ll probably take months, but we’ll see what happens probably in the next six to nine months here.

David Green:
I think in general, anytime you remove the guardrails, like having an agent to help you, you put power in the hands of the people that don’t need the guardrails. The professionals at these huge hedge funds that do this in their sleep, the people like us that already own a lot of real estate, the people that have invested $80,000 a month into sending out letters and pay per click and text messaging to try to find deals before they ever even hit the MLSs, they’re gaining power. The more that we take it away from the traditional way, which is that real estate agents represent clients and people can go buy a house without being an expert in it. I like the idea of owning a home, being the average American’s way of building really big wealth, getting out of the rat race and getting ahead. So I’d rather see them regulate wholesaling more.
I’d rather see, “Hey, if you’re going to be dealing in exchanges of real estate like this, you need to have a form of a license,” or I don’t even think it would be bad to say that if you want to be a wholesaler, the house has to be on the MLS for 20 days before you can buy that thing because the seller of the home, like the 80-year-old grandma who doesn’t realize that $100,000 is not a lot of money anymore, like it was a long time ago, might’ve got $400,000 for her house if it was in the open market. I understand that there’s a lot of people that listen to this, that make their living and do very well running a wholesaling business, and I’m not trying to irritate them or upset them by talking about it, but if we are looking to protect the people that are not experts in real estate, having in a market where you’ll get offers on that house from the public is better for them.
And if you’re looking at the people that want to buy a house that are not experts in it, having an agent that can walk you through the process and explain what a contingency period is, what an inspection should look like, how the appraisals work, what your financing contingency is, what all the closing costs are, and who pays what and how they could be negotiated is better for the people that aren’t experts in this. So if this lawsuit passes, I foresee the way we look at buying real estate, get online, look at houses, find a cute one, go look at it with your realtor, write an offer. I just think a lot of that could change, and this could turn into more high-powered stock brokering, like the boiler room type environment where inventory never hits a place where the public can see it.

Dave Meyer:
That’s not something I think would work out well.

David Green:
Unless you’re already super wealthy, in which case you’d love it.

Dave Meyer:
All right. Well, on the show, I think we’ll have to keep on top of these lawsuits on the future Bigger News episodes because this obviously, like you said, it impacts you as an agent, who knows exactly what would happen, but it would absolutely impact everyone whose even tangentially related to the real estate industry. So this one’s a big one that we’ll keep an eye on.

David Green:
Absolutely. Dave, thanks for joining me today. Always a pleasure when we get to do Bigger News together.

Dave Meyer:
This was a lot of fun. A great conversation.

David Green:
Yes, sir. Dave, for people that want to find out more about you, where can they go?

Dave Meyer:
You can find me on BiggerPockets of course, or on Instagram where I’m @The Data Deli.

David Green:
You can find me at DavidGreen24.com or at David Green 24 at any of your social media. Send me a DM and let me know what you think and let us know, a comment, if you’re listening to this on YouTube, what did you think about today’s show? Are you concerned about the industry changing? Are you worried that more real estate is going to fall into the hands of big hedge funds, firms, global conglomerates that have been able to raise money at much cheaper interest rates than we can get loans for in buying it? Or do you think that this is all overblown and it’s going to be fine? Let us know. Dave, any last words before I let you get out of here?

Dave Meyer:
No. Thanks for having me. I’ll see you all for the next episode of Bigger News Soon.

David Green:
All right. This is Dave and Dave signing out.

 

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Moving Prospects From Confused To Convinced

Moving Prospects From Confused To Convinced


Because you’re reading these words, chances are you’re an ideas person who shares your ideas through writing.

You write to attract new partners, new investors, new talent, new prospects, new clients. You write to educate, persuade, and inspire action.

You write because you believe in your ideas. You want your thoughts to reach others, make good things happen for you and your clients, and ultimately change the world.

This article on the topic of clarity—specifically content clarity—will help you attract what you want through your writing.

Our first stop will be the meaning of clarity. Then, we’ll explore why straightforward content is essential and look at five questions you can ask whenever you feel unsure about your writing or need deeper clarity. The questions will expose potential weaknesses in your content and guide you toward writing more straightforward text that resonates with your audience, builds awareness and trust, and, ultimately, wins sales.

First up—what does “clarity” mean?

What is clarity?

The word clarity comes from Middle English in the sense of glory or divine splendor.

With that etymology in mind, I like to think of clear ideas as glorious ideas, and clear writing as glorious writing. Clear thought leadership, then, shines in the minds of readers as if splendid, as if divine.

Hyperbole and etymology aside, according to Oxford Languages, clarity is the quality of being:

  • Coherent and intelligible.
  • Certain or definite.
  • Transparent or pure.

An image from The Free Thesaurus provides a clear path to further insights.

Synonyms of clarity, denoted by green circles, include lucidity, explicitness, obviousness, and straightforwardness.

Antonyms often give as much or more insight into the meaning of words. Antonyms of clarity, denoted by red squares, include haziness, dullness, and imprecision.

Picture a hazy sky, waiting for a storm to blow away the particulates and pollution, revealing the cerulean heavens.

Imagine dull scissors that tear and mangle what you’re cutting and how much you wished you had a sharp pair to finish the job well—and in half the time.

That’s why you want your content to exhibit the qualities of clarity’s synonyms, never its antonyms.

There’s no one-step shortcut to clarity in your marketing content

Leaving the definitions behind, another crucial thing to note about clarity—particularly content clarity—is that it’s the sum of many elements:

  • Conciseness—the content communicates without unnecessary words and ideas.
  • Simplicity—ideas in the content are easy to understand.
  • Familiarity—new ideas in the content relate to what readers know.
  • Connection—the content tells readers, “I see you.”
  • Precision, specificity—the content lacks vagueness.
  • Honesty—the content says, “No tricks or half-truths here; this is who I am.”

Why is content clarity important?

We all know, intuitively, why clarity in the words we write and the content we produce is essential. That intuition is correct, but let’s make it conscious by putting it into words.

1. Content clarity wins in times of information overload

To readers, a lack of clarity is the same as information overload. In the old trade journal Direct Marketing, direct response copywriter Dean Rieck expressed why this is so.

“When a person does not understand something, information is nothing more than random data. Even short messages can overwhelm people if the meaning is not clear. In advertising, this is often caused by too many writers working on a single project—a sure way to muddle a message. It is also caused by regurgitating facts without understanding them, by not having a tangible purpose for the writing, and by striving to impress rather than communicate.”

2. Content clarity boosts credibility, leading to confidence

In an interview with WordRake, Ben Riggs, senior communications specialist at Kettering Health, had this to say about clarity and confidence:

“Clear communication—and the plain language that enables it—leads to confidence in readers. People make decisions primarily when they’re confident.”

I’ve found that true in my experience. Have you?

Imagine this scenario:

You’re interested in buying software and begin researching vendors. One vendor’s website lays out its features and functions clearly, seemingly answering your questions and eliminating your objections as you read.

After reading, you feel confident in the vendor. You might not choose them because you have more vendors to review and more due diligence.

But you noted that clarity. Or, rather, you didn’t notice a lack of clarity.

That’s what clear content accomplishes; it lets readers read on without disruption, stumbles, and questions. Confidence is the result.

If your content is unclear, that’s when readers take note.

3. Content clarity reduces cognitive load

Every topic inherently contains a certain level of complexity. When you teach or convey your subject, you’ll add more complexity—it’s unavoidable. But the more precise your thinking and writing, the less complexity you’ll add to your content, and the easier the reading will be.

A study in Communication Reports examined the link between clarity and cognitive load and found that clarity reduces that extra dose of cognitive load, allowing readers to process information more deeply.

Another thing to keep in mind is that readers can’t ask you questions while they’re reading your content. If they get confused or have a burning question, they’ll have to hold on to it—unless they call you immediately or your organization offers immediate chat. Like cognitive load, burning questions take up a lot of mental overhead, reducing clarity.

4. Content clarity fights the curse of knowledge

Knowing a lot about something can make it harder for you to understand what it’s like for someone who doesn’t know as much. This situation is known as the curse of knowledge or hindsight bias.

Hindsight bias arises when we speak or write about something we know well. It’s hard to put that knowledge aside and think like someone lacking the same background and expertise.

For instance, if I were to start speaking to you about how prescriptive grammar often violates organic grammar, you might scratch your head, wondering what I’m talking about—unless you’re a word nerd into such topics. In that case, you’d share my curse of knowledge, and lack of clarity wouldn’t be an issue.

I might write about the topic clearly, but readers may not pick up on that clarity if I fail to consider my audience.

5. Busy, picky readers prefer content clarity

Your readers are smart and busy.

Yes, they could certainly work hard to understand what you mean in your content, but who has the time?

Readers don’t want to re-read a piece three times, Google what you’ve written about, or draw diagrams to figure it out.

If your piece needs more clarity, busy readers will drop it fast in search of another source whose author did focus on clarity.

Questions to ask in pursuit of content clarity

If you’re struggling to write a piece or wondering whether your writing is clear, the good news is that you’re on the right track—you’re thinking about your readers.

Ponder these questions centered around the elements of clarity to get unstuck and clear about the clarity of your message.

1. Does your content connect you and your readers?

As experts, we sometimes get wrapped up in our heads and forget about the people we’re writing for. To add the clarity that comes from connection, try this simple exercise.

Imagine you’re at a coffee shop with your ideal customer. You’ve been telling them about your company and its products and services. Your ideal customer is leaning in. They’re fascinated and are waiting for you to say more.

Now, write, speaking directly to that customer. Use second person—pepper your content with the words “you” and “yours.” Doing so lets readers know you see and hear them.

You may also need to produce more formal content, like research reports, policy documents, and academic articles, without writing in the second person. In those cases, introductions and executive summaries are the places to create connections.

2. Can readers grasp the topic of your content quickly?

Imagine your readers as astronauts, used to NASA-style, state-of-the-art training that doesn’t mince or waste words. That’s the kind of clarity you’re aiming for.

To help your readers grasp your ideas quickly:

  • Structure and organize your ideas well; pull out your table of contents and evaluate it independently.
  • Add headings and subheadings that tell the full story to readers as they skim through.
  • Use bullet points and lists to summarize key points or steps.
  • Write in active voice and use straightforward words and sentences.
  • Use images, charts, and infographics to break up and illustrate text.

Love or hate them, Buzzfeed helps readers grasp topics quickly through easy-to-read listicles.

The Economist helps readers understand complex topics using charts and data visualizations to complement in-depth articles.

3. How would you explain the big idea in your content to a child?

I realize that many people cringe at this advice. However, expert-written content is often full of jargon and $1 words. To write for clarity, substitute more understandable 25-cent words instead. For instance:

  • Utilize ► Use.
  • Ameliorate ► Improve.
  • Disseminate ► Spread.
  • Ascertain ► Find out.
  • Endeavor ► Try.

Use simpler words and eliminate word baggage to improve clarity in your content

Copywriter Bob Bly once said that no one ever complained about his content being too easy to read. Those are my sentiments, exactly.

4. What baggage in your content gets in the way of clarity?

Baggage, in this sense, means unnecessary ideas and words. When you consider your content, examine every thought and expression to see if you need it to convey your idea.

Need guidance on what baggage to eliminate? I can’t help with idea baggage in this article, but I can help with unnecessary words. To get closer to clarity, scrub these words from your content when it makes sense to do so:

  • Just
  • Very
  • I think
  • I believe
  • Kind, sort, type of
  • Really
  • Basically
  • That
  • Definitely
  • Actually

5. Are there places in the content where explanations are vague?

Specificity is an element of clarity. To add specificity, shun vagueness and embrace precision. Here are several examples adapted from the San Jose State University Writing Center.

Example 1

  • Vague: I failed the class for many reasons.
  • Clear: I failed Engineering Statistics because the professor was visiting from Russia, and I struggled to understand him.

Example 2

  • Vague: My daughter is in the orchestra.
  • Clear: My daughter plays principal viola in the Asheville Symphony. (She’s still in college, but a mother can dream.)

Example 3

  • Vague: The sales presentation flopped.
  • Clear: The sales presentation flopped because it needed more convincing numbers to sway the CEOs at the Clarity Conference..

Asking those questions about your content will help you produce materials more likely to achieve your desired outcomes—influence, conversion, and sales.

In my next article, I’ll take you on a deeper dive by providing 10 techniques for bringing clarity to your content. Stay tuned.



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A “Soft Landing” Looks Shaky as Recession Risk Starts to Rise

A “Soft Landing” Looks Shaky as Recession Risk Starts to Rise


The Chinese economy is facing one of its most significant tests in years. With real estate prices falling off a cliff, unemployment skyrocketing, and a currency crisis, Asia’s largest economy could hit even harder times ahead. But this doesn’t mean the rest of the world will remain unaffected. In the US, recession risks are starting to rise as hopes of a “soft landing” are gradually fading away. With inflation still rearing its ugly head and American households running out of cash savings, the worst could be yet to come.

To give us a global view of the economy is Bloomberg LP’s Chief US Economist, Anna Wong, who also served on the Federal Reserve Board, the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, and the US Treasury. Few people in the entire country have as good of a read on today’s economic situation as Anna, so we spared no questions about what could happen next.

Anna has some recession predictions that go against the grain of popular economic forecasts. From her data, the risk of a recession is far from over, and we could be heading into a shaky Q4 of 2023 and a dismal start to the new year. She details what could happen to inflation, unemployment rates, foreclosure risk, and why the Chinese economy’s failures could have lasting effects back home.

Dave:
Hey everyone. Welcome to On The Market. I’m your host, Dave Meyer, and today we have an incredible guest for you. We have Anna Wong joining us. Anna is the Chief US Economist for Bloomberg, which, if you’re unfamiliar, is an enormous media company that covers investing and economics throughout the world. Prior to that, Anna was the Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board, she was the Chief International Economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and she’s done incredible things all over the world of economics.
So if you’re one of those people who listen to the show because you are nerdy and wonky and really like understanding what is going on, not just in the US economy, but in the global economy, you are definitely going to want to listen to this episode. I will say that Anna is extremely intelligent and she gets into some complicated… Well, not complicated, just more advanced economic topics. So just a caveat there. But she does a very good job explaining everything that she’s thinking about and talking about.
So if you want to learn and get better, and better understand the global economy, I think you’re going to really, really appreciate this show. Just as a preview of what we talk about, we start basically just talking about the differences between a soft and hard landing. If you haven’t heard those terms, basically, when the Fed is going out there and talking about risk of recession, they think that there’s going to be a “soft landing,” which means that we’ll either avoid a recession or perhaps there’ll be a very, very mild recession.
On the other hand, a hard landing would be a more severe, more average type of recession where there’s significant job losses, declines in GDP, that kind of thing. So we start the conversation there. Anna, who has worked at the Fed and at the White House, has some really interesting thoughts and some very specific ideas about what’s going to tilt the economy one way or another.
And then after our discussion of the US economy, I couldn’t resist, I did have to ask her about the Chinese economy. Because we’ve been hearing for years about how real estate in China is dragging down their economy. And just in the middle of August, over the last couple of days, we’ve heard some increasingly concerning news about the Chinese economy, what’s going on there.
Actually, just yesterday, the Chinese government announced they were no longer going to release certain data sets because it really just wasn’t looking very good. And Anna has studied the Chinese economy for decades, and so she has a lot of really interesting thoughts on what’s going on in China and how it could potentially spill over into the US economy and specifically, honestly, a little bit into the real estate industry.
So that’s what we got for you today. I hope you guys enjoy it. We’re going to take a quick break, and then we’ll bring on Anna Wong, the Chief Economist for Bloomberg LP. Anna Wong, welcome to On The Market. Thank you for being here.

Anna:
Happy to be here, Dave.

Dave:
Can you start by telling our audience a little bit about yourself and how you got into economics?

Anna:
So I started being very interested in economics because of financial crisis back in early 2000s in college. And after that, I started working in DC for some former senior officials and the IMF and at the Federal Reserve. And in early 2000, it was a pretty exciting time to study global economics, partly because there was some very interesting phenomenon that was happening such as the global saving glut, and the dollar depreciation, and China accumulating international reserves via purchasing US treasuries and also predictions that maybe the US housing market was in a bubble and there will be a correction.
So when 2008 happened, I was in graduate school getting my PhD in economics from University of Chicago. After I got my graduate degree, I worked at the US Treasury on the international side of things. And there, I had covered G7 countries, I had been through the fiscal cliff in 2013 in the US and I also covered China in 2015 and 2016. And after Treasury, I went to work as a economist in the Federal Reserve Board where I also covered the Chinese economy. And I did that for a couple of years.
And during the trade war, I went to work for a year at the White House Council of Economic Advisors. So every year, the Federal Reserve would send an economist to the White House CEA. That’s historically been the case. So I was that economist from 2019 and 2020. And while I was really there to work on trade war, supply chain, resiliency, which actually started before the pandemic began, because of the trade war, there was already a lot of concerns about vulnerability of US supply chains.
So when the pandemic happened, I was also there to study, to forecast what would happen to the US economy if there were no fiscal stimulus and what is the appropriate size of the fiscal stimulus, and forecasting the collapse of the US economy in April 2020. And I will never forget that moment. It was very formative, that second part of my tenure at the White House during the pandemic.
And so that was why I became the Chief US Economist at Bloomberg because I thought this is the time to forecast and study the US economy, because it’s a time where if you have a view about where inflation’s heading, where GDP growth is heading, this is a very exciting time. Whereas in the previous 10 years, inflation just fluctuate around 1% to two point some big percent.
It’s just not as exciting as international side of things. So now as a Bloomberg Chief US Economist, I mainly focus on forecasting where inflation is going, where growth is going, whether there will be a recession and the Fed funds rate, where it would go. So that’s my job now.

Dave:
All right. Well, it sounds like we have someone extremely qualified to answer all of our questions that we have for you. So we feel lucky to have you here, Anna. And I want to talk about the Chinese economy in just a little bit because there’s been a lot of news coming out about it. And given that our show is so much about real estate and some of the trouble they’re having with real estate, we’re particularly interested.
But I’d love to just start at the highest level here given your experience at the Fed too. We’re hearing a lot from the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, a lot about a soft landing and if that’s possible. Could you just tell us a little bit about the concept of the soft landing, first of all? And what your views on the feasibility of it is?

Anna:
Yeah. I think the concept of soft landing is not very well-defined. It’s a nebulous concept. Because some people would interpret it as saying that there would be a recession, but it will be very mild where unemployment rate will still increase from today’s 3.5% to four-ish percent. But I think right now, most investors who are talking about soft landing are really of the mind that there won’t be a recession at all, and that inflation would come down painlessly where the labor market will continue to be tight.
I think that’s basically what people have implicitly in their mind. And in terms of the possibility of this, so Bloomberg Economics, my group, is still of the mind that there will be a recession, that getting inflation back to 2%, which is the Fed’s target, will be painful. And that a rise in unemployment rate to at least 4.5% is necessary to bring inflation back to 2%.
We are skeptical of the soft lending optimism for a couple of reasons. Number one, many people today cited resilient consumption. You saw the strong retail spending yesterday. Many people cite that as one reason of soft landing. Well, when we looked at the pattern of consumption over the past recessions in the last 50 years, it turns out that consumption always is resilient before a recession and even in a recession. In an average recession, consumption does not even drop off.
Consumption just maybe even tails off services consumption, in fact, on average, grow a trend even during a recession. So it’s just not the kind of indicator you want to derive comfort in because it has no forecastability of a recession. Second reason that people cited as why they’re optimistic, it’s just broadly speaking, economic indicators lately have been surprising on the upside. It turns out that two months before the Great Recession in 2007… So December 2007 is the beginning of that recession.
Two months before that economic data were all surprising on the high side as well. PMI was doing well and auto purchases was also solid, nonfarm payroll, just two months before that recession was going at 166,000 jobs added, just two months before it started to be negative. So currently, in the most recent jobs report, we saw that the economy added 187,000 jobs. And that number is likely to be smaller in the next month.
Because we have seen in the past couple of weeks bankruptcy of the trucking company, Yellow, and that already shaved off at least 20,000 from the headline. And also, we have been seeing a trend of downward revisions in these jobs number. And by looking at various benchmark series, our view is that the nonfarm payroll number is overstating the strength of the economy. And the disinflation trend, the low core inflation reading that we have been seeing lately is not due to painless reasons.
It is because the underlying job market and labor market is weakening more than these headline figures are suggesting. We are expecting consumer delinquencies to surge after October, and we’re already seeing small firms bankruptcy going up sharply. We are expecting by the end of the year, small firms bankruptcy would reach the level that you would last see in 2010, so would consumer delinquencies.
And in fact, I think the best economic indicators with proven forecasting ability for recession is the Federal Reserve, a survey of senior loan officers. And in that survey, the Fed asked senior loan officers in banks, “What are the plans for credit tightening in the second half of the year? What did they do in the past six months?”
And this is actually a causal channel of economic activity. Whereas consumption, resilient consumption, PMI, those are coincident indicators. But whereas lending, people can only spend if they can borrow. And lately this is what you’re seeing, consumption is propped up by borrowing. So the moment that it becomes harder for them to borrow or the cost of financing this borrowing becomes exorbitant, they will have to downshift their activity.
Similarly, on the corporate side, the mysterious things that has been why, on the corporate side, we see activity being very resilient is still very narrow corporate spreads. And usually, on a downturn, you will see widened corporate spreads. That’s because bankruptcies are happening and credit risk are worsened and there will be credit downgrades, things like that.
And we’re seeing the very, very beginning of that. And usually, when that happens, it’s a very non-linear process. One of the reasons that people have been citing as why we won’t have a problem like we did in previous recession this time on the corporate side, is that credit quality is very good. And looking at mortgage origination, you see the credit scores or consumers are very good, nowhere near what it was in 2006.
But what happens is that some of the pandemic policies, such as the student loan forbearance policies, have distorted credit scores. In fact, by some estimation, credit scores might be artificially inflated by 50 basis point. So if you look at the tranches of mortgage originations by credit scores, and you discount the lower 10th percentile, 20th percentile of mortgages by 50 basis point of credit score, in fact, credit quality is not that much better than 2006.
So I think that a lot of these things that are underneath the service will only bubble up to the service as you start seeing this snowball financial accelerator effect. And that’s why I just don’t think that the things that people have been citing for being optimistic about soft landing today, do not stand the test of history. So this is why we are still thinking that a recession will happen later this year.

Dave:
Great. Thank you. And you just answered one of my other questions. But just to summarize for everyone, it sounds like what a lot of prominent media outlets or other forecasters are relying on are variables that don’t necessarily have the right predictive qualities for a recession. And some of the data points that you just pointed to are in fact better examples of what we should be looking at if we’re trying to forecast a recession.
You said at the end of this year… And I want to just follow up on this conversation because it does seem from the other forecasts I read, people are split. The people who do believe there’s a recession, some say end of this year, some say in the beginning or middle of 2024. The Fed started raising interest rates. What is it now? 15, 18 months ago, something like that.
We know that it takes some time for these interest rate effects, rate hikes to ripple through the economy. But what do you expect to happen between now and the end of the year that’s going to go from this gray area that we’re in now to a bonafide recession?

Anna:
Yeah, a very good question, Dave. So resilience in the economy in the last two years. To be able to accurately forecast a recession, I think one needs to also have a good understanding of what is boosting the resilience in the last two years. And for us, we actually have been pushing against recession calls last year, Dave.
If you remember last year, there was a lot of people who were talking about recession at the end of last year, or in the middle of last year. But we were never in that camp. We have been consistently saying that the recession will be in Q3 of this year, Q4 or Q1 2024. And the reason why is precisely because of the lags that you just described of monetary policy.
So we estimated some models, and all those models would suggest that the peak impact of monetary policy would occur around the end of this year. So I think those are the tools that central bankers typically use, like top-down [inaudible] models. But we also look at this from a bottom-up perspective. Because there are some unique things propping up the economy these two years, one of which is that household to have built up this cash buffer from the fiscal stimulus, and also from savings during the last two years.
Because in the early part of the pandemic, they couldn’t spend if they have all this money. And also, from the stock market wealth effect, all that. And so we look at also income buckets, how much households have in excess savings. And what we see is that in terms of the runway, how many months that these cash buffers could support somebody’s normal spending habit without them needing a job or something like that.
It shows that by the end of this year, towards the end of this year is when probably the lower half of the population will be out of these buffers. So either they come back to the job market, and this is why labor supply has been increasing this year so far. It’s because of these people who were on the sidelines suddenly feel that desperation that they need this job because the cushion is gone.
So that’s one reason why, from a bottom-up analysis, we think that the second half of this year, around the end of this year, is the time. And second, I think from a natural experiment point of view, you also see the impact of these pandemic policies. One of which is that during the pandemic, the administration boosted the emergency allotment for people’s food stamp money and for a poor household.
And we’re talking about household in the perhaps lower 20 percentile by income bucket. And those people saw their food stamps allotment going from less than $100 to as much as $300. That’s a lot every month they got more. And there’s more pandemic policies such as childcare credit, and of course the three rounds of fiscal stimulus. But this SNAP program, this food stamp emergency allotment, it expired earlier this year at March of this year.
And immediately, you saw this plunge in demand for food. Not just trading down to cheaper food, but just plunge in demand in food. And you see evidence of that in the earnings call that is finishing up just around now from food company like General Mills, Tysons. They’re talking about a decrease in volumes of food demand. Because we saw early signs of that tremendous impact from this expiration of food stamp emergency allotment in plunging card box shipments.
That is actually one of former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan’s favorite barometer of the US economy, cardboard shipments and freight, railcar loadings. Both of them plunge at the same time. And it turns out that 30% of the demand for cardboard shipments came from food industry. And it turns out that one of the primary reason I think for that plunge is because of food demand plunge from this emergency allotment expiration.
And now, we are expecting to see the expiration household resuming student debt payment in October. And the average amount of a student loan borrower is about $300 per month in payments. So that basically subtracted $300 per month in spending power they could have in buying other stuff. And so that’s a tremendous amount that could shave off about nine billion per month in spending power for the US economy.
It’s a tremendous shock. Similar to the food stamp allotment program that also took away about $200 in spending power of a household. And this is what I meant by a natural experiment. You see these pandemic policies expire and bam, and then that’s where you get that plunge somewhere. So this is why I think that in October, once those payments resume, you’re going to definitely see consumers pulling back on consumption.
I mentioned earlier in this podcast that consumption is a poor predictor of recession. So if consumption is resilient, it doesn’t tell you about the chances of recession tomorrow. However, if consumption is not doing well, it definitely will tell you something about the recession probability tomorrow because consumption accounts for two thirds of the US economy.
And so that’s one non-linear shock that I’m expecting to see. And I think it will have ripple effects. Because I mentioned earlier that student loan forbearance policy inflated people’s credit scores. So the Biden administration extended the period of when credit agencies can dock people’s credit score if they are delinquent on their student loan by another year.
So after October, we won’t see credit scores deterioration yet from people who could not pay on the student loans. But I do think that on the margin, some people would be paying. And then you will see auto loans or other consumer loans, a credit card loans delinquency deteriorate. So while credit companies cannot dock a person for being delinquent on student loans, they could dock somebody for being delinquent on auto loans and credit card loans.
And all that means that we are going to see credit score deteriorate. And the pullback on consumption will also affect firms’ profitability, which also leads to more bankruptcies over time. And so I think we are going to see measures of various credit risk worsen starting in the fall and going into next year.

Dave:
Wow. Thank you for explaining that. I’ve just been wondering about timing because it does feel like we’re… For the last year and a half or so, we’re hearing a lot there’s going to be a recession. And it’s curious when the tipping point is going to be. But I appreciate that explanation on your thinking about timing.
You mentioned the unemployment rate of 4.5%. Just for context for everyone, I think we’re at about 3.6-ish percent right now. And this is in August of 2023. How bad do you think it’s going to get, Anna? Is this going to be a long-drawn-out thing, a short recession? They come in all sorts of flavors. What are you expecting?

Anna:
As Anna Karenina, the novel begins, “All unhappy families are unhappy in their own way just like recessions.” So the average recession being that unemployment rate have to go near 5%, at least almost 5%. But because the pandemic era has improved the balance sheet of… You have investment grade firms which are able to refinance some of their debt with the lower interest rate during the low interest rate period in the early part of the pandemic.
There are a lot of heterogeneity across credit risk. When I said that this recession would be prompted because of the worsening credit risk, I’m talking about on the consumption side, the poorer half of the country; on the corporate side, the less creditworthy path of the corporate world. But there are still pockets of resilience. And I think this is why, overall, this recession will be a mild one just because it’s not the kind of situation of 2008.
To have something of the magnitude of 2008, not only do you need vulnerability in the economy, and we do have vulnerability in the economy, you also need some amplifier, some propagation of those weak points. And in 2008, that propagation mechanism is the subprime mortgage and the packaging and tranches stripping the credit, each of the subprime into various tranches. And that leads to this and transparency of the credit quality of this assets you’re holding.
And when subprimes start getting into trouble, it is that fear of not knowing what you have in your hand, “Is it toxic? Is it not toxic?” And that everybody just pulls back. And you need that kind of propagation mechanism. And oftentimes, it’s unclear beforehand what it is because it is so hidden. Usually, you don’t know ahead of time. But as I said just now, suppose that if in fact that people’s credit scores were so inflated and their behavior, in fact, mimics somebody with much lower credit scores today, maybe the credit quality of a lot of assets on the consumer side today are mispriced.
Another potential shock today is, of course, a commercial real estate. Everybody has been talking about how it’s just a ticking time bomb related to the fact that a lot of commercial properties are vacant right now given the remote work trends that was started during the pandemic. So I cannot tell you exactly what would be the source of a potential amplifier of a downturn. But that this is why we are of the view that the baseline is still a mild recession, but with the caveat that I think, ex ante, it’s hard to say where that shock, that propagation mechanism is coming from.

Dave:
Yeah. It’s one of those things where it’s almost certainly not going to be the thing that you think it’s going to. If you hear about it so much that whenever it’s in the media enough that people maybe mitigate against it or-

Anna:
Yeah, exactly.

Dave:
I don’t know.

Anna:
Exactly.

Dave:
They focus on it when there’s a bigger creeping risk that no one’s really seeing.

Anna:
Exactly.

Dave:
You did, Anna, mention the commercial real estate market, but earlier mentioned something about mortgage quality and loan quality. And I’m curious if you have concerns or thoughts about the residential real estate market and any risk of foreclosures or defaults going up there?

Anna:
Well, Dave, I was looking at the mortgage origination in the residential market by different percentile of the credit scores. And my observation there was that on the lower 10 percentile, if you just take those numbers as given, you see that the average credit scores of the bottom 10 percentile by credit scores in mortgage origination, was about 60 or 70 points higher than before the 2008 crisis.
And a second observation is that that average credit scores of the bottom 10% and 20% has been deteriorating in the last three years in terms of mortgage origination. And those two things are pretty alarming to me, because why is mortgage origination deteriorating at a time where credit scores was inflated? And in those two years where credit quality was deteriorating in the mortgage origination, that was when credit scores was actually increasingly inflated. Not just inflated earlier on, but increasingly inflated.
So that tells me that in the last two or three years, the people who are buying, the higher the interest rate they’re getting on their mortgage, the likely that the average credit quality behind that mortgage is not as good as the one two years ago. And furthermore, if I adjust that credit score inflation by the amount that I think is feasible, 50 basis point, in fact, the average credit quality is not clearly better than 2006.
And in terms of foreclosure, now that’s a curious aspect of this housing market. What’s different today than back in 2006 is that we have significantly lower housing supply. And that has kept housing prices from falling too much. And there are many reasons why housing supply is not as high as before, but I think one reason is also that there’s been less foreclosure. And I think one of the reasons is also related to the administration policies from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, that I think there has been some remediation policies that has delayed and make it harder for foreclosures to happen.
And related to the pandemic also that there’s been policies that want to reduce the risk of homelessness on the part of people who are suffering. So from a humane perspective, I can see exactly why that would be the case for it. But from a housing supply perspective, that is one curious case. So I think underneath the surface, a lot of this resilience is perhaps just deferred and delayed because of actual policies, pandemic-related policies.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s interesting to see about the credit quality. I had never previously heard about the potentially elevated credit scores. That’s really interesting. Because I’ve definitely been reassured about the housing market based on some of those credit quality… And the fact that even a lot of these forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums did lapse more than a year ago, I think. And we’re still seeing pretty low foreclosures.
They are ticking up, but they’ve still been pretty low on a historic scale. And so I think that’s, to me, one of the more interesting things in the market to watch for in the next year or so is: will a potential recession, or really anything else, spur more foreclosures in the housing market over the next couple of years?
Anna, I wanted to shift a little bit out of the US, actually. We rarely talk about this on the show, but since we have an expert with your background, I would love to just talk a little bit about the Chinese economy. For the last year or so, we’ve heard a lot about how Chinese real estate has been a drag on their economy. From my understanding, a lot of asset values have gone down, and that’s depleted a lot of savings or net worth of a lot of citizens.
We also heard yesterday something pretty unique that the Chinese government will no longer be releasing youth unemployment data because it was growing so high. So it does seem like there’s a lot of economic turmoil coming out of China. So would love just your perspective on that. But I think for our audience, we’d love to know what impact will the Chinese economy, second-biggest economy in the world, have on perhaps the American economy?

Anna:
Yeah. Okay. On the Chinese economy, I think one of the driver of China’s growth has been real estate. And that’s related to multi-decade policies in China that suppressed investment options of Chinese household. So from Chinese households’ perspective, there were not many instruments that you could invest in, and that’s why it’s very typical for a household to over-weight on real estate. And this is why, in terms of a housing bubble, China does have a continuous problem there.
And every time the real estate market slows in China, you see significant impact on the economy. And economists have used more granular input-output tables to get at the direct and indirect impact of real estate sector on Chinese growth. And that number is actually massive. It’s a big number, and it’s much bigger than in US. If you think that in US, a housing market downturn would push the US into recession, in China, that’s several factor larger.
And in the past 20 years, every time you see that there’s a housing price cycle in China. And it’s very clear because you just need to look at the first-tier Chinese cities’ prices. Every time that happens, there’s hard landing fears in China and there’s capital flight away from China, the renminbi weakens.
And what makes the recent cycle, this current cycle pretty severe, is that it seems to be related to some scarring on the household side from the long pandemic policies of shutting down the economy. And so it seems like this time, this China shock, this is a serious China shock. So I would say it could be even worse than the 2015, 2016 hard landing shock.
Some of the indicators that had in the past been indicative of the Chinese economy is of course, as I mentioned, first-tier Chinese city housing prices. And in the past, whenever that has fallen, the government could stop publishing it. And in fact, whenever the government stopped publishing something, that’s when you know something’s not doing well.

Dave:
Yeah, no news is good news. No news is bad news.

Anna:
Yes. So number one. Number two is a thing called total social financing, TSF. And basically captures the credit impulse of the economy, and it’s just falling through the roof right now. It is worse than 2006. That’s in terms of level. That’s really bad.

Dave:
Wow.

Anna:
And I would say, as an economist, just as an economist focus on measurement issue from a statistical agency’s perspective, it’s actually easier oftentimes to collect price data than quantities data. So at times where all these economic indicators are sending mixed signals, I would focus on prices.
And some of the prices that you can observe here is, for example, Chinese PPI and US import prices from China because we also collect those data. You don’t necessarily need to rely on China’s data. You can see some of these data on the US side, and those are weakening very much. And deflationary spiral don’t come from nowhere. Similar, you can extend even the same analysis to the US economy in terms of our labor market.
A lot of people talk about labor market strength in the US. But you look at wages and you look at the jobs opening data. Is it possible that just a decrease of 34,000 jobs opening could lead to more than one percentage point decrease in wage growth? It’s that sort of stuff where if you believe more in the price data… Because it’s very easy to collect prices data in China’s case, prices of consumer discretionary.
In US cases, it’s very easy to collect prices on wages, but it’s harder to count the number of jobs, the number of jobs openings, the housing starts in US. And versus in China, it’s hard to count the exact unit of quantity. Whereas prices data, we have it everywhere.

Dave:
And you’re seeing deflationary data.

Anna:
Yes. So I think that the key indicators in China, the housing prices, PPI, and also using corresponding US data on counterparty data and also the total social financing data in China, those are pointing to some serious trouble on par or worse than 2015.
In terms of spillovers to the US though, when I was at the Federal Reserve, I wrote a paper on the spillovers from a China hard landing on US and global economy. And so you can think of it as the shock has three propagation channel. Number one, is through its impact on commodities. So China will lead to disinflation and deflation on various commodity prices such as iron ores and oil and zinc, copper, aluminum. China’s demand, historically, account for at least 40% of those commodities.
So number two, the second channel is through trade. So if we export less to China, then from a GDP accounting perspective, we have less growth. So these two channels are not so important for the US. Because in terms of our direct trade exposure to China, very small. Finally, the third channel, which is where it gets dicey, and this is the main channel of how a China hard landing could slow us down.
It is through the risk asset channel. So in terms of direct bank exposure to Chinese assets or even indirect US bank exposure to China related… So suppose we are highly exposed to UK bank, HSBC, which is very exposed to Hong Kong or China, that channel is not that important in terms of finance. It’s really the global risk asset channel. What happens if there’s a sudden hard landing in China, is that it would lead to global risk-off.
So you would see credit spread widened, sovereign spread widen. The dollar would appreciate. So my paper’s estimate is that if China falls four percentage point below expectations, then the dollar could appreciate by 6%. And usually, when the dollar appreciates, it tightens global financial conditions, it makes it harder for companies [inaudible] hire.
And VIX would also increase. If China’s GDP growth is four percentage point below expectations, our model expect to see about six percentage point increase in VIX. So that’s close to one standard deviation. Oil price would decrease by 40%. So it’s actually through that channel that pulls back people’s appetite to lend that could lead to problems in slowing US down.

Dave:
You gave us an idea about the US economy and timing. Do you think we’ll know anything about the extent of the Chinese economic situation and its potential impacts anytime soon?

Anna:
Well, Dave, as I was saying, when we encounter measurement problem, if the data is not available to you, what is available to you is actually what is happening to prices and the real world. And China does not have a monopoly to its own data. In fact, the US also measures a lot of counterparty data. We can say how much China is importing from us.
So if Germany’s export to China dropped, because Germany exports a lot of capital equipments to China, there’s a usual pattern of how China slowdown could affect the rest of the world. And you just need to tally up those signs to have a good gauge of how bad is the trouble with China.
So right now, we are also seeing people are debating on whether there’s a recession in Germany. And certainly the mood is very gloomy in Germany, which is another manufacturing powerhouse. That economy is very much tied to the Chinese economy. If they’re not doing well, I think it’s highly suggested that China is not doing well either.
So also, I would look at commodity prices where traditionally, Chinese demand account for the bulk of it, as I was saying, iron ore, zinc, aluminum. If those prices are falling dramatically, it does tell you that demand is slumping in China. So it’s pretty obvious, you can tell immediately.

Dave:
All right. Well, thank you so much, Anna. This has been extremely helpful. We appreciate you lending your expertise to us today here on On The Market. If people want to learn more about what you and your team are doing at Bloomberg and follow your analysis and writing, where can they do that?

Anna:
You will need a Bloomberg terminal. And once you have a Bloomberg terminal, you type in BECO, B-E-C-O GO. And there you can see all our insights and thematic pieces and reactions to data.

Dave:
All right, great. Well, Anna, thank you so much for joining us. Big thanks to Anna. I hope you all enjoyed that interview. Anna, clearly a very knowledgeable and smart person, knows a ton about the real estate market, knows a ton about the economy and I really appreciated what she was saying. I think there’s a lot of different conflicting data out there.
But what I really liked about Anna’s analysis is that she acknowledged that there’s a lot of conflicting data and said there are certain data sets, there are certain data series that just aren’t that good predictors of recession. Maybe they’re good at predicting something else, they’re important for some other reason, like consumption. She was talking about US consumption. It’s not a good predictor of recessions.
And so she and her team are able to distill what data points are important and which ones are not. I love that because I think as real estate investors, that’s something we also have to do, not just in broad macroeconomic terms, but also when you’re looking for property, you need to decide which data sets are important to you, which indicators, which numbers are really going to determine the performance of your deal.
And so I think learning from people like Anna about how to pick the right indicators, the right data sets is something that we could all learn and benefit from. All right. That’s what we got for you guys. Thank you all so much for listening, and we’ll see you for the next episode of On The Market.
On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. Produced by Kaylin Bennett, editing by Joel Esparza and Onyx Media. Research by Pooja Jindal, copywriting by Nate Weintraub. And a very special thanks to the entire BiggerPockets team. The content on the show, On The Market, are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions and investment strategies.

 

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A “Soft Landing” Looks Shaky as Recession Risk Starts to Rise Read More »

More unmarried couples are buying homes together

More unmarried couples are buying homes together


Gary Burchell | Getty Images

More couples are becoming homeowners before tying the knot.

Unmarried couples make up 18% of all first-time homebuyers, up from just 4% in 1985, according to a 2022 report by the National Association of Realtors.

The organization mailed out a survey in July 2022 and received a total of 4,854 responses from homebuyers who bought a primary residence between July 2021 and June 2022.

More from Life Changes:

Here’s a look at other stories offering a financial angle on important lifetime milestones.

“Unmarried couples have been on the rise [as homebuyers] and now they’re at the highest point that we’ve recorded,” said Jessica Lautz, the Washington, D.C.-based vice president of research of the National Association of Realtors. 

Buying a house is a bigger commitment than renting, so while these couples may be eager to own a home, there are a few things they should consider before purchasing a property together.

‘Housing affordability really is a struggle’

Many young, unmarried couples live together, often for financial reasons. About 3 in 5 unmarried couples in the U.S. live with their partners, according to a report by the Thriving Center of Psychology.

Splitting the cost of housing, which can be a big part of your budget, makes sense.

Even so, unlike married homebuyers, almost half of unmarried ones — 46% — made financial sacrifices, including picking up secondary jobs, to finance their purchase, the NAR report found.

“Housing affordability really is a struggle, so pulling your finances together as an unmarried couple can make a lot of sense to move forward on that transaction,” said Lautz, who is also the deputy chief economist of NAR.

The typical unmarried couple buying a home together for the first time was roughly 32-year-old millennials with a combined average household income of $72,500, according to Lautz. Additionally, these shoppers were more likely than married couples to receive loans — 4% versus 3% — or be gifted money from friends and family — 12% versus 7%.

One reason unmarried people may decide to buy homes with their partners is the strength in numbers that pairing up offers when it comes to qualifying for financing, as real estate prices and interest rates remain high, said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York.

Foreign buyers of U.S. homes fall to lowest level on record

While one could argue couples should simply get married if they’re already investing in a house, some people may opt to keep things, such as their estates, separate.

“There are reasons why people don’t get married; it’s not an automatic given these days,” Cohn noted.

But unmarried couples should carefully approach making a commitment of this scale.

There are often no legal protections they can fall back on, said Cohn. If one person decides to leave, the other can be saddled with the entire mortgage and may not be able to afford it, she said. 

How to secure each other’s investment

Four factors unmarried homebuyers should consider

Here are four things that certified financial planner Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning, in Oakland, California, says unmarried couples should think about before buying property together: 

1. Carefully weigh tapping into retirement accounts for a down payment: While it’s generally not the best idea to pull from retirement funds, millennials still have years to recover, said Curtis, who is also a CNBC Financial Advisor Council member. “The reality is, for most millennials, this is where most saving happens.”

Funds in a traditional IRA can be used for a first-time home purchase, up to the lifetime limit of $10,000. The amount will be taxed at ordinary rates in the year withdrawn but will not incur a 10% penalty if it is a first-time home purchase, said Curtis.

Roth IRAs can be accessed as well, but the rules must be followed closely, said Curtis. You can typically withdraw contributions at any time without incurring taxes or penalties, but there are age and time requirements for withdrawn investments to count as a qualified distribution.

Mortgage interest rates matter 'less today than they have historically': NAR's Jessica Lautz

Many companies allow employees to borrow from their 401(k) plans. An employee can borrow 50% of their invested balance, up to a maximum of $50,000. “If a person has $100,000 or more, they can borrow $50,000,” said Curtis. “If they only have $70,000, they can borrow up to $35,000.”

Loans must be paid back over five years or in full if employment ends. 

2. Review credit reports and scores to ensure you get the best mortgage rate possible: Make sure there are no inaccuracies, diligently pay your bills on time and reduce your debt levels as much as possible before the purchase. Keep in mind that lenders will look at both partners’ scores if both are on the mortgage application.

3. Keep credit activity low: Avoid making any large purchases on credit cards, as well as opening or closing new lines of credit as any of these could affect your credit score.

4. Save money in a high-yield savings account: Instead of keeping your down payment savings in the stock market, consider using a high-yield savings account. “The market could dip right when the cash is needed,” added Curtis. “Fortunately, rates are very good right now.”



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How To Achieve ‘Lean,’ Not ‘Mean,’ When Cutting Your Company’s Costs

How To Achieve ‘Lean,’ Not ‘Mean,’ When Cutting Your Company’s Costs


Uncertainty about the economy doesn’t do companies any favors. When business and consumer spending slows, leaders face tough decisions about which expenses to cut. And workers worry about whether those cuts will send them to the unemployment line. It’s not an unfounded fear, as 2023’s layoff announcements from big-name companies keep coming.

During this year’s first quarter, 136,000 employees got their pink slips. While tech giants have been in the news with headcount reductions, large banks, auto manufacturers and retail pharmacy chains are also letting people go. It’s decisions like these that make employees question whether leaders are on their side.

When times are tough, it’s convenient to slash the payroll. However, there’s more to running a lean operation than reducing staff down to a skeleton crew. With any cost-saving measures, you want to be attentive to your employees’ needs and enable your company’s long-term strategies. Here are some ways to achieve both.

Target Inefficient Processes

Yes, the salaries and benefits for the people on your payroll can be significant costs. But inefficient processes could be what’s truly costing your business in terms of lost productivity. You could be zeroing in on the wrong target and damaging employee morale by cutting your HR budget.

The phrase “work smarter, not harder” is about finding the most efficient way to accomplish your goals. Take a team of IT support techs as an example. From a high-level perspective, you notice their resolution times are too long. Yet it also appears they’re not devoting enough time to work-related tasks. Customers aren’t getting the service they deserve, while the company is apparently paying the team to twiddle their thumbs.

It might be tempting to call everyone into the office separately, asking them to explain what they do around here. You can take a different approach by focusing on the tools and processes the team has at their disposal.

In this case, support techs may be working with outdated software that doesn’t enable them to efficiently tackle the problems they see. The team feels their efforts are futile, so they compensate by slacking off. By identifying what’s driving the undesired results, you can implement more efficient tools and processes. This approach may take additional time upfront, but it demonstrates your willingness to address shortcomings human to human.

Be Strategic

To seem fair, leaders sometimes reduce costs across the board. They cut 10% of staff from all departments, for example, or tell every mid-level manager to stop ordering complimentary team lunches. These moves may save your company money in the short run, but they’re far from strategic. And they don’t always address long-term performance goals.

Gartner reports that only 43% of leaders achieve their savings targets during year one of a cost-reduction drive because of unrealistic objectives. Blanket cost cutting can actually set companies up for repeat failure since the measures don’t address the behaviors behind inefficient spending. You have to think about where the problems lie and the company’s ongoing strategy.

Say your sales numbers are down by 20%. However, you discover one product is behind the drop. There have been technical glitches over the past year, causing customers to lose faith. As a result, they’re discontinuing their use of your company’s other solutions.

Penalizing every business unit with equal cuts doesn’t make sense. It’s better to fix your problem child if your company’s strategy is to be a reliable market leader. The source of those technical glitches may be overlapping vendor relationships—you might simply have too many cooks in the kitchen. Streamlining the resources behind the product will do more to help your company meet its long-term objectives without alienating your staff.

Reskill Employees

AI may be here to stay, but there’s a sharp disconnect between how executives and individual contributors feel about it. Research shows 64% of executives think AI is exciting. Two-thirds of high-level leaders also believe AI will positively impact employees’ experiences. However, 46% of individual contributors think AI is scary, and 31% believe it will negatively impact them.

With AI’s capabilities increasing, employees fear bots will replace their jobs. Automating repetitive tasks may help companies implement lean processes. But relying on technology to completely take over for humans to save a buck is seen as cold. It discounts the contributions and talents of your staff. You’re writing them off in favor of cheaper and faster, but not necessarily better.

What leaders should instead is acknowledge where AI and humans can work together. It may mean automation does take over some of the tasks your staff currently performs. But instead of getting rid of people, reskill them to take on advanced responsibilities in areas of need. Chatbot software may handle insurance policyholders’ initial claim requests, but carriers can upskill employees to address claims with complex injuries.

Thoughtful Cost Cutting

Shaky economic conditions drive budget cuts as leaders worry about whether the balance sheet will even out. While dismissing the idea of cost cutting may be unrealistic, your decisions don’t have to demotivate your team. Targeting inefficient processes, aligning cuts with strategies and reskilling staff members will help you achieve “lean,” not “mean.”



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