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London’s rental market is in crisis. Here’s how renters are affected.

London’s rental market is in crisis. Here’s how renters are affected.


Stories about soaring rents and the search for a new place to live taking months are all too common in London right now. The city’s rental market is in crisis, and renters are facing the consequences. 

One of them is Daniel Lloyd, who lives with his flatmate in southwest London. After living in their two-bedroom apartment for almost a year, their landlord asked them to pay 27% more rent. 

“We were shocked at how high the rent increase was,” he told CNBC’s Make It. While they were expecting their rent to go up, they had not anticipated it being by that much. 

“We were willing to accept an acceptable level of increase. However, going close to 30% would have been an increase of just over £4,000 [$4,854], and we were not going to be earning an extra £4,000 by the end of the tenancy,” Lloyd explained. 

They would therefore not be able to afford the higher rent, and would be forced to move. But as rent prices have gone up across the city, they would likely have to move further from the center — somewhere with worse transport links and away from their local community. 

“None of the areas that we’ve found potential properties for would really suit our living situation,” Lloyd said.

Him and his flatmate also realized that most other renters in their building were facing the same issue. They got together and tried to push back against the rent increases after realizing that their landlord was breaching their tenancy agreements, which limit how much rents can go up. 

Some of Lloyd’s neighbors have heard back from their landlord through the property manager and new, lower rent increases have been suggested, but most are still worriedly waiting. 

Buying instead of renting?

The root of the crisis

The key issue that has led to this crisis, that saw rents rise by 17% throughout 2022, according to Zoopla, is demand and supply, Donnell explained. 

“Supply and demand are really out of kilter at the moment. On the supply side, the average London estate agent would typically have had 17 to 20 properties for rent on their books. That’s down to 10 or less than 10 at the moment,” he said. 

The rent shifts also link back to the coronavirus pandemic, and the sudden drop in demand for rental flats that occurred when London went into lockdown and people could not travel or move there. This caused rents to fall by as much as 10-15%, Donnell recalled. 

Laws and regulations also play a role: There are no rent controls in London, and landlords have the option of so-called “no fault” evictions. These allow them to force people to move out even if they have not breached their tenancy agreement, so for example if they do not agree to pay higher rent. 

This has led to intense competition for rental properties, Katinka Hill, the regional director for central London lettings at the estate agent Chestertons, said. 

“Viewing levels have increased dramatically year on year. Properties aren’t staying on the market long, if at all,” she told CNBC’s Make It. 

“We often don’t have to to ask tenants to offer over asking price. They just offer over asking price because they’ve lost out on the last two or three properties that they’ve bid for,” Hill added. 

As well as making higher offers, people are also providing bios and pictures of themselves, and are creating resumes for their pets to help secure them a home, she explained. 

Looking ahead, Donnell believes rent prices are likely to keep increasing, but probably at a slower pace. Long term solutions are needed, he said. “We really need to see more supply in London. A lot of that’s going to come off new build development,” he said. 

For now however, the situation is likely to remain difficult for London’s renters. 



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Why Startups Should Avoid Shiny Object Syndrome

Why Startups Should Avoid Shiny Object Syndrome


By Dalip Jaggi, co-founder of Revive Real Estate, a PropTech with a goal to democratize house flipping.

Attending a startup mixer and meeting other founders and entrepreneurs is energizing. When attending these events, I find that most people are young and hyped up. And even though everyone is secretly exhausted, you wouldn’t know it, as they’re having the time of their lives. As an entrepreneur and founder of several startups, I find these events invigorating.

However, during a recent meeting in Vegas, the most common theme I heard was of startups distracted by “shiny object syndrome.” Many of these companies have only been around for 12 to 18 months or so and are building products from the top down while also building out new offices with all the employee perks and high-end amenities.

They’re spending a ton of their VC funds on big hires, extravagant campaigns and events designed to capture “mindshare” instead of building a business that plays the long game: capturing market share. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but is it the best thing?

My favorite question to ask at these events is, “How do you like running a business?” Unfortunately, much of the time, the focus is almost singularly on product development instead of business management.

Know That You’re Going To Plateau

Having built and sold a few startups, I can personally attest to the fact that the growth cycle is almost universally the same. You create business momentum, often hit a hockey-stick growth spurt—and then plateau.

Smart businesses find a way to break out of the plateau, enjoy another hockey-stick jump, and then flatten again. It’s a rinse-and-repeat cycle.

The problem for many startups is that they don’t have the patience to go through these cycles. They want glamorous offices—now. They make big hires way too early. Many rank-and-file team members are brought on too quickly.

When my latest venture was in its infancy, my first instinct was to hire an executive assistant. I needed one, right? But I realized that I didn’t. A better business decision was to take on those administrative tasks myself. We were at a stage where every expense or hire needed to generate an immediate ROI.

The Plague Of Over-Systemization

Now, this may go against startup conventional wisdom, but way too much time is spent systemizing processes in a startup. When you’re a brand-new company, one of the first decisions you may make is deciding whether you want to automate the marketing funnel. The problem is that you are focused on building rather than doing. There’s a big difference between these two things.

One of the greatest weaknesses common among startups is rarely discussed: spending too much time on building. When you’re starting out, you need to figure out how to make the phone ring—today. It’s not sexy, and it’s not a fancy funnel. It’s your own actions, like picking up the phone, creating a connection and making the deal happen.

When we first hire someone, they often come to me, and the first thing they want to do is to try and automate whatever task they are assigned. Don’t start with automation. If you do, you will spend the next four weeks automating instead of just doing the task today. Right now, you probably don’t need automation to get good work done.

Knowing When Not To Automate

Today, in the startup world, it feels like we want to automate everything. But I worry that this approach is where we can lose quality. A better way is first to show that it works with a manual process. Yes, it is more tedious. Yeah, you must spend many days doing it. But if it works, you can focus on efficiency afterward instead of beforehand.

We have a theme at our company: We build technology from the bottom up, not the other way around.

I’ve learned the importance of doing this the hard way and have made several mistakes in my entrepreneurial journey. Building is the easy part. Building a new app, creating a new website and developing a new marketing campaign are all easier than the execution it requires to make these offerings a real business. It may feel to you like you’re moving the needle of the company, but to me, it feels like busy work—unless you’ve proved its worth. Then it’s time to find those efficiencies.

Investing In The Right Stuff

Good spending decisions have two sides: being mindful and being purposeful. Finding the right balance is the key. While you need to be acutely aware of how you spend, by the same token, don’t be afraid to invest in things that can make an impact.

For example, startups often spend heavily on industry trade shows, like on huge exhibits and top sponsorships. But how closely are you tracking the ROI?

If you have one dollar and you’re building a business, I believe most of that dollar should go to the sales department, hands-down. Sales is the backbone of any business.

The Danger Of Growing Too Fast

If you have been part of a startup, you have probably tried to serve too many markets too quickly in an attempt to accelerate your growth. It often begins with a feeling that you are racing against the clock and trying to beat competitors to the punch.

We all know that “more” doesn’t mean “better.” Focusing on quantity versus quality is often an Achilles’ heel of startups. But building out slowly and methodically to lock down quality is better than racing to create impact with a quantity-based strategy.

It’s much sexier to expand and grow your reach, but profitability can be far more elusive if you do this rather than hunkering down and putting quality before quantity. Once you’ve nailed quality, then it’s time to expand. Let’s not forget that we’re building a business for a profit at the end of the day.

That’s why one of the biggest lessons most startups need to learn is to avoid shiny object syndrome. Building a business takes patience. Be patient.



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Why This Recession is a HUGE Opportunity for Investors

Why This Recession is a HUGE Opportunity for Investors


The 2023 recession is both an opportunity and a danger for real estate investors nationwide. Falling prices, rising mortgage rates, and an uncertain housing market have made buying rental properties riskier than at any other time in the past ten years. But, the flip side of this coin is that a lack of buyers and harsh buying conditions makes it easier than ever to pick up homes in grade-A areas, many of which could help you realize massive returns in the future. So, is now the time to buy?

Welcome back to Seeing Greene, where expert investor, agent, broker, and author, David Greene, answers your recession-based real estate questions on the spot. We take questions from new investors struggling to find cash flow in today’s challenging market and long-term property owners who don’t know what to do with all their equity. We’ll also hit on the touchy subject of when to quit your job, when you have too much debt to invest, and the difference between a property manager and an asset manager (most people get this wrong!).

Want to ask David a question? If so, submit your question here so David can answer it on the next episode of Seeing Greene. Hop on the BiggerPockets forums and ask other investors their take, or follow David on Instagram to see when he’s going live so you can hop on a live Q&A and get your question answered on the spot!

David:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show 723. What I’m basically getting at here is we got to all stop trying to hit a home run with one pitch. Quit falling for that. That’s what gurus are selling. This is what the online media presence influencers are hyping. It is not realistic. I’ve been investing real estate for a long time. I’m not finding those deals. I’m not. I don’t think they’re out there because if they were out there, someone would even buy it before you find it. Okay. Let’s all take our goal of financial freedom. Let’s chop it up into little tiny pieces and let’s just take one piece at a time.
What’s up everyone? This is David Greene, your host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast here today with a Seeing Greene episode for you and it does not disappoint. Today’s episode is fantastic as we get into many of the raw and real struggles of what’s going on in today’s real estate market during this recession. That’s a lot of R words that I just threw at you.
In today’s show, we talk about what to do when you’re trying to house hack in a hot market and you just can’t find anything that cash flows. We talk about the angel decision of should I quit a job that I don’t hate to jump into making more money as a business person, and if so, what is the best way to do it? We get into when you should hire an asset manager and what the difference between an asset manager and a property manager is, as well as if you should take on more leverage or pay down some of the debt you already have and build your reserves. All that and more on today’s show.
Now, if you haven’t heard one of these shows before, I take questions from people like you, our listeners, and I answer them for everybody to be able to hear. So some of these are written questions, most of them are video questions, but either way you get to hear questions that other people in the BP community has and have me answer them in person, like the forums but 3D. Before we get into our first question today’s quick tip is remember during times like this where it’s more difficult to make money and much easier to lose money, that the one thing that nobody can take from you are your skills. Focusing on building up yourself, improving your skills, improving your knowledge is the best investment you can take because you can lose money, you could lose properties, you can lose time, but you cannot lose skills. So continue to build up your skills, continue to build up your value that you bring to the marketplace, and you will always find yourself in a position of financial strength that makes investing in real estate much, much easier. All right. Let’s get to today’s first question.

William:
Hey David. Thanks for answering my question. Any insight that you have for me is great. My name is William. I’m a 31 year old vet and I’m living just outside of the Washington DC area. It’s a tough market. I have a good realtor on board with me. I have a good local lender on board with me. I’ve already been approved for a loan. All that’s good to go. So I’m starting to build somewhat of a team around me the best that I can and trying to learn as much as I can. But in the area that I’m looking in, which is pretty much all outside of Washington DC, I’m trying to stay out of the actual city itself, so the surrounding area. It’s been real tough to find something that’s available. There’s a little to no multi-family, which is something that I originally wanted to get into.
There’s a few single family homes and there’s a lot of condos and a lot of townhouses that are available, but I’ve already been pretty approved for a loan for a decent amount, but I’m not trying to blow all that money on a condo or even a single family home. I’m trying to buy pretty modestly and be smart with this first investment the best that I can. My thought process so far is getting a single family home to try to build a little bit more equity and some appreciation since condos, So so, talent homes are the same way. It’s looking that I might have to go that way, but every number that I run man is like negative cash flow, bad cash on cash returns, the cap rate’s real low. So I’m having an issue here and I’m looking like mid threes, like all under four, and I’m still running into really bad numbers.
So my question to you is, man, if you had to start from ground one in my market area, what would be the best investment property that you’d have to go into and knowing that with the VA loan, I have to live in the property for at least a year, and that was my goal, was live there for a year, come back out, try to reinvest or refinance into another property and keep the ball rolling the next couple years to help build some financial freedom for myself. So thank you for any insight that you have, David. I appreciate the answer. Thank you.

David:
All right. William, thank you very much for your question and for your transparency and the struggle that you’re having. I got some good news and some bad news. I’m just going to give it all to you. Let’s start off with just acknowledging your situation is indicative of the market as a whole. I think this is what everybody in America is struggling with right now. We want to invest in real estate. We know that real estate is probably the most solid asset class as far as long-term returns we could get, but so does everybody else. There’s a lot of competition right now to get these assets, and this has been the case even though rates have increased. I don’t want to get into a long diet tribe of macroeconomic trends in the way that our government is trying to combat the inflation that they created, but it’s not going to work.
So your struggle is the same that I’m having and the same that all of our listeners are having. We’re all on this struggle bus together, so to speak, and maybe I’m driving it right now. So you guys are going to listen to my take on what’s going on. The first thing that I’ve had to do as I’m in your shoes is I’ve had to lower my expectations and I’ve had to widen my time horizon. So what that means is when I first got in real estate investing, almost everything that we were looking at was going to give you a positive cash return, but that’s because no one wanted to buy real estate. So the questions I would ask is, “Well, this one’s going to give me a 8% return. This one’s going to give you a 12, this one’s a 15. Should I go for the 15 or is it going to be too much work? The eight would be the least work. The 15 would be the most work. I’m going to go for the 12. It’s right down there in the middle.”
That was the way that we approach real estate. It wasn’t will it cash flow, everything cash flowed. Fast forward to where we are today, very little cash flows. In fact, if you’re in the same situation as William here and you’re having a hard time finding cash flowing properties, it doesn’t mean you’re a bad investor. Maybe that’s the first thing I should say. You’re not doing something wrong because you can’t find cash flow. The market is freaking competitive and as much as we hear people talk about a recession coming, there is still a lot of money floating around. Now, you may not have all that money. Okay. You’re trying to get into real estate because you want to get some of that money, but it is there, and that money is going after these asset classes that people like us all want. This is even more impactful in appreciating markets. Washington DC is one of those.
Washington DC has seen increasing prices significantly over time as well as rents for a long period of time. It’s one of the hotter markets. South Florida’s one of those hotter markets. Southern California is one of those hotter markets. There’s a lot of different places right now where it is very difficult to find cash and most of them are the healthiest markets. As weird as that sounds like the place you’re going to make the most money is also the hardest to get into and the hardest to cash flow.
So the good news for you is, do not be discouraged by this. You’re not doing anything wrong. This is the way the game is played right now, and I know a lot of people don’t want to hear this, but my opinion is this is probably a healthier way for real estate to work. It’s supposed to look more like this than what it’s looked the last eight years. It’s not normal to buy a property. It immediately cash flows. The rents go up a ton every year. You get 20 tenants for every vacancy that you have. It goes up 10 to 20% in value. We’ve had an incredible run that was mostly based off of foolish government stimulus that we created, but then we start to think that’s normal. That’s how real estate’s supposed to work.
We hear about somebody else making a hundred grand in a year and we’re like, “I want to get in on that.” So everyone floods into real estate and when they get here and they see that it, you’re not making a hundred grand in the first year. In fact, maybe you’re barely making any cash flow or you’re losing a little bit of money, immediately we get sour and we say, “I don’t want to do this,” or we say, “There’s something wrong with me. I don’t know how to find their deals so I shouldn’t invest in real estate.”
And I’m giving you this advice because I can hear the discouragement in your voice. You’re a man that has clearly been through hard times before. You’re a veteran. Thank you for your service. I appreciate that you did that. I don’t want you internalizing why real estate is hard for you right now. It’s not your fault. This is what we have. In order to stop ridiculously fast home prices rising from all the money that we made, we’ve had to bump interest rates up to a point that properties don’t cash flow and we’re stuck in a standoff. That’s all this is.
So the second part of my answer has to do with your time horizon. We’ve already talked about adjusting your expectations. Now I’m going to talk about the time horizon effect. You will still make money in real estate. You might have to wait longer than what you hoped. You might have to wait longer than what the gurus that sell courses are telling you to get you to sign up for their course. And when you follow the people on Instagram or YouTube that are like, “I made all this much money on my homes.” It’s what they’re not telling you that changes everything. They’re not telling you that’s because they bought it four years ago or even two years ago. The people that bought their short term rentals in 2019 are crushing it. It’s probably doubled in value since they bought it and the renter significantly higher.
If you bought a property today at half of the price and half of the rate of what you could buy for today, you’d be crushing it too. But those opportunities aren’t here. And when people are selling courses, they’re not explaining that. They’re not telling you, honestly, “Yeah, I have eight properties and I retire.” They’re not telling you they bought them between 2017 and 2020. So you’re just out here expecting that’s how real estate works and getting skunked and feeling like that must mean that something’s wrong with you.
The approach I’ve taken, the approach I’m advising other people to take is not popular. It’s not what people want to hear. I’m going to tell it to you straight though because I know in a couple years when my strategy worked at other, you’re going to come back and listen to this podcast because I was honest with you. I didn’t tell you, you wanted to hear to get 10 grand out of you to sign up for a course. It is taking a long-term position and it is not expecting real estate to be the magic pill. You still got to have a job right now.
There’s always a handful of people that can pull it off as a full-time investor if that’s you, don’t be discouraged. But if you’re the normal person, you still got to be working. You’re going to house sack and you’re not going to cash flow, that’s okay. If your rent would’ve been 2,500 and you’re only paying five or 600 a month, that’s a huge win. It’s a $2,000 a month win for you, plus every year it’s going to get better. Your rent would’ve gone up if you weren’t house sacking and instead your rent does go up because you are, you’re winning on both sides. Over time, this turns into big money, but what I’m preaching is delayed gratification. You cannot walk into this thing expecting that you’re going to just step in and crush it like we could at other periods of time.
Now, I don’t know how things are going to go down, but one very likely scenario that I don’t want to say I’m betting on, but I’m planning for is that the property’s not buying right now. I don’t love them. I don’t love the returns. I’m not super excited. I’m basically buying in the best areas in order to decrease the risk that I’m taken on by buying in a market that might not be at the bottom, but when rates go down at a certain point, I’m going to look like a brilliant genius. I’ll be the guy that could say if I wanted, “My property is making all this money and I don’t have to work anymore,” but I’m not going to be telling people it’s because well, I would be telling.
But I would have the option of not telling you, “Well, I bought it in 2022 when rates were 8%, but now I refinanced it into 3%, so my mortgage is significantly less than what it used to be.” And those people that are trying to buy at the 3% rate are going to be paying way more for the property than I did, and they’re going to be in the same boat as you that doesn’t cash flow. I don’t know, but I predict you’re not going to see cash flow in real estate for a very long time. There’s too much competition for people that want it, and when I say cash flow real estate, I mean strong cash flowing right out the gate.
The people that are going to make money in real estate now are the people that take a longer time horizon. They look three years out, they look five years out, they continue to save money, they continue to earn more at their job. They continue to push themselves and challenge themselves and their ability to earn income and bring value to the marketplace. They’re not the millennials that want to buy a couple houses and retire and run a blog or run a TikTok and say, “This is my life now.” I don’t think those people are going to be the ones that make it through the recession.
So my advice to you if I was starting over, find a property in the best neighborhoods you can with as many bedrooms as you can. Take a little piece of humble pie and buy a four bedroom house that you can add a fifth bedroom too, live in one bedroom, rent out the other bedrooms. Yes, this is not ideal. Yes, it’s going to be a little bit of a pain. Yes, there’s more comfortable ways to live. If you want to make money, that’s what you’re going to do. Okay.
So we got to all stop comparing where the market is now to where it was a couple years ago when it was like you could have missed. That is not where we are right now. The strategies are going to work right now are going to be more difficult, and when I say difficult, they mean less comfortable. That’s honestly what I would do, and I’d live in that property for a year renting out the room. I would learn the fundamentals of managing stuff. I’d rent it out to either other veterans or other people that you like. I’d make sure it has enough parking at a minimum of three bathrooms, and after a year, if the market still look like it does right now, I’d do it again.
I’d go buy another property, try to get five bedrooms, rent out the bedrooms. You’ll probably cash flow a little bit or come close to breaking even, but as long as you’re buying in the best neighborhoods, the best locations, the best literal real estate, over time, you’re going to do really well. And when you’ve got four or five of these things and you feel like this is too much work to manage five properties with five bedrooms each, sell the one that has the most equity, maybe sell the two that have the most equity, take that money, 1031 it into a multi-family building in another area where it actually works. Keep three of them and manage those three plus the two multi-families. Okay.
What I’m basically getting at here is we got to all stop trying to hit a home run with one pitch. Quit falling for that. That’s what gurus are selling. This is what the online media presence influencers are hyping. It is not realistic. I’ve been investing real estate for a long time. I’m not finding those deals. I’m not. I don’t think they’re out there because if they were out there, someone would even buy it before you find it. Okay. Let’s all take our goal of financial freedom. Let’s chop it up into little tiny pieces and let’s just take one piece at a time. Okay. One little goal. Get on base, get a walk, get to second base, get a sacrifice flag. Get to third base. Wait for that loose ball from the pitcher that comes at it.
If it doesn’t happen, maybe someone bunch you in. Okay. It’s not going to be the big glamorous sports center highlights that you guys are seeing, all the influencer posting to take your money. I don’t know anybody making money in real estate right now. I know a lot of people losing money in real estate right now, but they know over the long term they’re going to get it back. So to survive the difficult time we’re at right now, continue working, continue bringing value into the marketplace, continue improving your skills, which is something that all of us have control over and make wise decisions in real estate over a longer period of time. And when the market does turn around, you’re going to look really smart.
All right. Our next question comes from Joseph in Scottsdale. Love that area. Hey David, I really enjoy this show format and I hope you continue to provide this weekly podcast. My question for you is regarding my primary home in Scottsdale, Arizona and starting my investment journey. Purchase my home for 425K in 2017, it’s now worth a million. There’s a great example. This person looks like a genius because in five years they’ve made a million dollars through real estate and most of it could be tax free if they’re married, however they bought it in 2017, we all look like geniuses when we talk about stuff from five years ago.
I know you’re familiar with this market, and my question to you would be, if it’s the right time to sell or rent my home. Long-term, my home would likely rent for 5,000 a month or somewhere around $10,000 a month as a short-term rental. My mortgage is only 2000 a month and that is a very comfortable payment for me. With this type of cashflow, would you recommend keeping the property, or should I get out soon due the potential loss of equity? Either way, you’ll contribute to my long-term real estate investing journey.
All right. This is a good question. Now, again, I don’t have all of your financial background, Joe, so as far as giving you advice, but I will answer it based off what I would do if I was in whatever I imagine you’re in your life right now. I don’t think that the $2,000 a month, which is obviously a very comfortable payment for you is as important as if you could make some more money off this property. I don’t think Scottsdale is going to be one of the areas that gets hammered in value. I don’t think you’re going to lose a ton of equity. The reason being the demographics in Scottsdale are so solid that even when the rest of the country goes into recession, areas like that, weather the storm very, very well.
So I would not be worried about selling because of equity. I probably wouldn’t manage it as a short-term rental myself, unless you have the time to do that. I would probably think if it could make 10 grand a month and you could pay a management company 20% to manage it, you could keep eight grand a month, and that means that with your $2,000 payment, you could be cashing $6,000, which would be more than enough to cover your rent if you went and got a property somewhere else or your house act. So yeah, I would say turn it into a short term rental. If you can have someone else manage it, make five to $6,000 a month, then go buy another property somewhere else and house hack it, like I told to our last guest, William, who came in with their question.
If you’re an experienced investor, find a deal that doesn’t take a lot of work. If you’re you’re inexperienced, just buy another property in Scottsdale and live in the back unit and rent out the house or rent out the bedrooms. I’d find something and I’d put a lower down payment on it so that I kept somebody aside in case the market gets worse. But you’re actually in a position, you have so many options because you made a good decision in 2017. It’s very hard for you to screw this thing up, but you should do something because if you bought it for 425, it’s worth a million and you’ve got over half a million of equity in this thing and it’s not making you any money. The only benefit it brings you is a low mortgage.
The way I would compare this is I’d say, “Well, I could rent a house somewhere else for four grand,” so by only paying two grand, that half a million is really only saving me the difference between two grand I’m paying and four grand I would be paying. So it’s saving you $2,000 a month. That’s more than the cash you could get if you just rented it out normally. You could be making three grand a month if you just rented it out normally and potentially six grand a month if you rented it out as a short term rental and even more if you manage it yourself.
So the options there financially are clearly you’re better off to get out of that thing and turn it into a revenue generating machine and find another place to live. So all things being equal, you’re in a great position to do it. And what I like for everyone else to recognize is any property you buy right now in five years, you’re probably going to be in a similar situation to old Joseph here. And that’s what I’d like to see more people doing is to quit expecting, to have unlimited options when as soon as they buy their property and instead plan for the future. And when it does turn around that your property’s gained a lot of equity or the rents have gone up a lot, then you’re in the position that Joseph is in to make several different moves that could all be good. So thanks for sharing that, Joseph. Our next clip is a video clip from Mike Fernandez in Arabi, Louisiana.

Mike:
Hey David. Love your content and it was great meeting you at PB Con in San Diego. My name’s Mike Fernandez. I’m in a small suburb just outside of New Orleans. My question is one you’ve probably gotten a couple times before, but with I guess a little bit different context, I’m wondering should I quit my job? So in addition to my W2 income, I’m a realtor, I’ll probably do around 80 to 85 in GCI this year. We flip one or two houses a year, me and my business partner, and then I also have a few long-term rentals that we get some income from. So the data points to that we have the savings and we have the income to be able to make that jump successful. My concern is with this changing market, I could foresee a scenario where multiple of those income streams could lessen or could run dry.
And for context, my W2 job is with a big accounting firm. I really don’t hate my job and I’ve been able to negotiate down to 20 hours a week. So I have tons of flexibility. I work from home, but at the same time, I feel like I’m strapped for time and I think that, that lack of time is having an impact on the income that I could be making in real estate. So considering jumping full-time, but also a little bit weary of the market. So I would love to get your thoughts, input and any advice that you might have. So thanks again, really appreciate this.

David:
Hey, thank you for that, Mike, and thank you, Eric, our shows producer for picking a kick butt question. This is awesome. I love, love questions like this because they’re real life. We’re often like, “Do I buy the duplex or do I buy the triplex?” And that’s not how real life works out. This is a real life question. Do I quit my job or do I wait and not quit my job? Couple things, I’m probably the only person that I know in the BP community, in the real estate investing community, any community that tells people, don’t quit your job.
Now, that doesn’t mean never quit your job. I quit my job. I’m not being a hypocrite here. I was a cop. A lot of people know that, worked that for a long time. Left it to become an agent. Then I left being an agent to start a team as an agent. Turn that job into a business. Then I started other businesses, but I’m still working. I haven’t completely quit. So the question here is, “Should I quit this steady job that I don’t hate just to have more time to make money as a realtor?” Well, the first obvious metric to look at is if you got back to 40 hours a week you’re spending at your job, would you make more than you’re making at that job as a realtor, and I’ll throw this in there, you need to make considerably more than you would be making.
So I don’t know if you mentioned how much you’re making at your normal job, the accounting, I believe you said. Let’s assume you’re making 80 grand a year and then you’re making another 80 grand a year as a realtor. If you quit the guaranteed income of 80 grand a year from that job to make 80 grand a year as a realtor, you still lost. And the reason is that 80 grand at a realtor is not guaranteed, and there’s a value that we can place on knowing that paycheck’s coming in. So $80,000 guaranteed versus $80,000 not guaranteed, the 80,000 guaranteed has less risk and therefore has more value.
So if you’re going to give up 80 grand, you better be making at least 100, 120 grand with that same time. Does that make sense? It’s not all completely even because when you go take the leap into entrepreneurial ventures, you’re getting rid of the ceiling that stops you from making more, but you’re also losing the floor that protects you from dropping. Now at a time when the economy is just ripping and roaring like it has been, the floor is not as valuable because it’s easier to ascend. But as we’re going into a recession, I now put more value on the floor because it’s harder to get to the point of the ceiling, like the actual economic environment you’re stepping into starts to make a difference here, and it’s likely going to get worse before it gets better, which is not the ideal time to quit your job.
Now, the benefit you get when you get out of the guaranteed money and you get into the entrepreneurial money is that even though you lost some safety and security, you gained skill building and potential upside. So the longer that you struggle in the 1099 world, which is I’ve been calling the entrepreneurial world, for you this is being an agent, the more your upside starts to steamroll or snowball and the higher it can get. So even if you left 80 grand a month and you made 60 grand a month as a realtor, there is some additional benefit in that next year as a realtor you got better skills. So now maybe you make 80 grand, then you make 100, you make 120.
So to sum all this up, the W W2 jobs value is in its security. The 1099 jobs value is in the skills that you can build. Now, I think you’re a smart enough guy just listening. You already know everything I’m getting at here. So here’s what I would say, you’re going to be time crunched. You cannot avoid that. That’s okay. Right now is not the time for any of us to be saying, “I want all my time back. I only want to work four hours a week.”
Man, the people that talk about doing that, they usually have some advantage you don’t have. They are famous. They get tons of ad revenue coming in from YouTube so they can afford to take time off. Like Joe Rogan can say, he only works four hours a week if he wants, but unless you got a podcast like Joe Rogans, that’s not an option for most people. It’s not realistic to think that, especially when the economy is hard, none of us should be working. It just leads to unmet expectations, disappointment, and ultimately people feel bad about themselves because they weren’t able to do what the four hour work week person who’s been bragging about it on their social media was able to do.
I’d like to see you keep that job, continue selling homes and focus on adding more people into your database and getting more clients that you can market to in the future. And if you catch yourself running out of time, now you got to stretch yourself in a way that is more difficult for you, less comfortable, but doesn’t take more time, and that’s leverage. Now you got to make a relationship with someone in your real estate office to show homes for you when you can’t do it or get your listing ready for the market when you can’t do it.
It’s easier for all of us to do things ourselves. This is the reality. It is easier for all of us to say, “I’m just going to go do it.” So we do that, but what we don’t realize is we’re also being lazy when we just do it ourselves. It feels like hard work. It’s really not. We’re avoiding having to train and teach and pour into and mentor anybody else. I’d rather see your skills as a business person grow by keeping your job and being forced to go find somebody else in the office to do some of the work that slows you down as a realtor so you could double your production but not put any more time into it.
Now, that doesn’t come without a cost. The cost is the frustration, the headache, the sweat, the blood, the tears of trading a new person. But I’d rather see you put your effort into that than into doing it yourself and having to quit your job. Because if you end up quitting the job to double down as a realtor and you sell twice as many homes, you may end up in the exact same financial position you were at, but just more stressed with less security. So you can hold onto the security, you can hold onto the money, you can hold onto your ability to continue to get loans to buy more real estate, and you can sell more houses if you can learn how to leverage.
Now, I’ve written books that talk about this. I talk about it in my book Skill in the top producing series that I published with BiggerPockets, and I have a new book coming out very soon called Scale. So if you go to biggerpockets.com/scale, I talk about how you take your job of being an agent and you turn it into a business of running a team or a company just like what I did.
So the whole Top Producer series is designed to say, “Here’s how you learn how to make money as an agent selling homes. Here’s how you crush it as an agent being a top producer, and now here is how you take the business that you created, crushing it, and you turn it into a business that you basically run somewhat passively.” I’d rather see you on that path.
Now, I could also tell because I did some snooping in your video that you got some Keller Waves books behind you, which makes me think you’re a Gary K.W guy. So you’re probably hearing Gary Keller give very similar advice to you that I am right now. I learned a lot of this from Gary and I think you could do it, so I’d love to see that. I’d love for you to buy the books. Let me know what you think of them and overall, if you got a job that you don’t hate and it pays good, I don’t think right now is the time to let it go. Just work twice as hard as what you’re doing before and make sure you’re building your skills twice as much.
Okay. This is the section of our show where I read the YouTube comments. These are going to come from episode 702, the last time that we did as Seeing Greene. I love this part of the show because I get to share what our audience thinks of what we’re doing. I actually got this from Nate Bargatze’s podcast. He’s a comedian that I think is funny, and I was listening to him and he reads comments from his shows and I said, “Hey, we should start doing the same.” Now, you guys can help me make this part of the show better by leaving more funny comments than what you always do. So go on there, leave some funny insight, say if you like my haircut, say if my eyebrows look good today, say something that you enjoyed that I said, or something that you notice I say all the time that I might not even know that I’m doing anything that lets us know you’re paying attention to the show. I’d love to hear it and increase our engagement.
Our first comment comes from the Hillbilly Millionaire. Excellent episode, David. I love all the answers this week. It’s a good time to get creative on renting and buying or selling. Thank you for that Hillbilly. Next comes from Homes With Me Glad. As a fellow agent, I love the question about the seller covering the buyer’s lease after the sale. What a great idea for clients stuck in a lease. I wouldn’t have previously thought to do that, and I’m glad to hear this. Thank you for that.
When I give advice like that, it’s very unique. Most people don’t think that way, and it’s not that I’m smarter than everyone else, it’s that I see more angles of real estate. So if you took this microphone right here, there’s clearly an angle that I can see it here, but there’s another angle that the camera’s going to see looking at it here. Another one that my TV on the wall is going to see, and another one that the figurine of Brandon and I that’s on this side is going to see.
I have an angle as an agent, as a mortgage company owner and a loan officer, as a podcast host, as a real estate investor, as a short-term real estate investor, as a triple net investor, as a person that meets a bunch of other people that are in this space. As an author, as a business owner of other real estate agents, I have so many different angles of the same stuff you guys hear that… Insight comes to me that wouldn’t come to someone else because all they do is one thing. They only do creative finance. They only flip houses. They only have their specialty. So my commitment is to continue to push myself in ways that frankly would make me want to pull my hair out sometimes if I hadn’t already lost it, in order to gain that perspective so I can share it with you because it’s that important to me that you guys all build wealth through real estate and that I stay the top educator when it comes to teaching other people how to make money through real estate.
So I often come up with ways to structure contracts, make offers, psychological hacks that you can use to give yourself an edge when you’re negotiating. And I love it when you guys ask me questions where I get to share that stuff because I’ve spent years helping clients buy and sell homes, and I’m just going to tell you guys the secret, it is not the easiest part of real estate is trying to work as an agent, but I learned so much. So if you guys have a house you’d like to help sell or you want us to help represent buying a house, reach out to me and then make sure you ask questions about that stuff so I can share some of the advice I’ve given to the clients I’ve represented that my team represents that we’ve used to get them a better deal.
All right. Our last comment comes from Florian Wu from the investing in 2023 webinar that we did. So timely, this is one of my 2023 goals to become an active real estate investor. 2022 is my year of passive real estate investing. Thank you so much, Florian. Yeah, I wish you good luck on becoming an active investor. I’m going to be putting together a retreat where we’re going to be working as a group to set goals, and that’s going to be in Scottsdale at the property that I bought with Rob out there. So if you guys would like, go to davidgreene24.com/retreat and you can see, and maybe it’s retreats, try both. Try a retreat and then if that doesn’t work, add the S on the end, you could get signed up for that goal setting retreat with me and you guys can see how I set goals and I can work on helping you set goals to make 2023 your best year ever.
No matter what you do, I promise listening to this podcast needs to be on your list of things to do for 2023. So do me a favor, if you’re enjoyed the show, please go leave us a five star review wherever you listen to podcasts. That could be Apple Podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, whatever your flavor is. Go there and let everyone know how much you liked the show and I hope I get to see you at the retreat. All right. That was our Clement section. Again, guys, go on there and leave something extra funny or extra insightful. I’d love to read your comment on the next show. Getting back to our questions. The next is a video question from Darek Drake in Old Jacksonville.

Darek:
Hey, David. I wanted to send you a question regarding the episode with Rob Deer Dick. He was talking about how he had a trainer friend that made millions and then lost it all because he over leveraged. I’m just starting into my real estate empire business. Little quick background. I have a three bedroom, two bathroom in Tampa, Florida that I bought as my primary residence. I recently moved to Jacksonville and now I’m turned that home into a midterm rental.
In my personal finances, I’m already highly leveraged. I’m not quite living paycheck to paycheck, but I do have a massive amount of student loan debt. I have a mortgage on my home, and the question I have for you is, I’m thinking about putting in a HELOC and using that money to go buy my next property, but given what Rob Judeck was talking about, it did highlight a point that is a concern. I don’t want to get in a situation where I’m over leveraged and then be upside down or have to sell off my assets and be back to zero. So was wondering if you had any markers or flags that I should look out for when taking this approach. I appreciate your time and I hope you have a great day.

David:
All right. Derek, this is a really good question and is something that’s near and dear to my heart. I’m actually starting a group called Spartan League where we are going to be teaching the members to function like Spartan warriors in protecting their wealth. This is something very, very important, especially as we’re coming into what is likely a recession, and even if it’s not, is a tough real estate market to be in. I think you’re asking the right questions. I think you’re thinking the right way. Now is not the time to extend yourself. This may sound contradictory to people that have been listening to me for the last five to six years where I’ve been like, go, go, go. There are times to go, go, go, and the last five to six years was artificially skewed towards go, go, go, because I was watching how much money the government was printing.
Now that I’m watching how much the government is trying to slow the economy down by pushing rates up, I’m not saying don’t buy it real estate, but I’m saying don’t buy it. There’s not as much urgency to buy it right now. There’s more opportunity to get better deals. There’s more opportunity. Homes have been sitting on the market for longer. I don’t like you getting in the position of being super leveraged. I’d rather see you keep that HELOC as a potential reserves to make payments if something goes wrong with your real estate. Now, I don’t know what the actual debt is on your student debt. If it’s 2%, I’m not going to tell you that you should be paying that off. If it’s 10%, it might be a position where you want to start paying down some of that debt and giving yourself some breathing room before you go buy more real estate.
Now, I recognize this is a real estate podcast. People might be surprised to hear me say this. I’ve always been more conservative. I got into the less conservative approach because I was watching how much money was being created, and that’s the only way you’re going to win. You fall behind as inflation eats up your capital when we’re creating inflation, but it’s been slowed down some. I think in the future it’s absolutely going to be coming back. We’re not getting rid of this thing. But right now, the risk versus reward does not benefit you to try to go buy more real estate when the prices and values are not going up as quickly as they were, and it’s harder to get rid of if something goes down, if you’re already saddled with a lot of debt. I’d rather see you take the energy that you would’ve put into finding the next deal, putting it under contract, getting it ready, managing it, learning. That’s a lot of energy.
I’d rather see you put that energy right now into improving at your job, into making more money at that job into growing in skills, into growing an influence into impressing your boss or getting a better job. That does not mean I’m saying don’t buy real estate. Everybody always goes way too far and jumps to conclusions. You should still be investing in real estate. Just don’t put 100% of your energy into it like maybe before. Put 40% of your energy into it. Put 60% of your energy into other things you could do to prove your financial picture.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned being an investor for a long period of time, it’s that while the majority of my wealth came from investing in real estate, the majority of the safety that I had to invest in real estate came from making money in other areas, and you can’t forget defense. You cannot forget safety. We haven’t been focused on it as much because it’s been so easy to score. Well, now the rules have shifted a little bit, it’s harder to score, and defense is becoming more important.
So don’t feel urgency. Don’t feel like, “Everybody else has buy real estate. I have to go be able to buy some too. I just heard somebody else bought a deal. I haven’t bought a deal.” That isn’t the case right now. You can really pick and choose your spots. I like house hacking because you could put three and a half percent down, you could put 5% down. You can keep a lot of your capital reserves to cover those payments. I’d rather see you sleep well at night than have this sense of urgency that you don’t need to have right now to go buy real estate. That doesn’t make a lot of sense.
So if you have a little voice inside that’s saying, “Hey, maybe you need to get your house in order, listen to it.” That’s a very healthy voice. Don’t get caught up in the hype of people telling you that you have to go by because you see other people buying. There’s a lot of people that have pulled back right now and in the markets that we’re the hottest, we’re seeing prices continue to come down. There’s a couple cabins I was looking at in Tennessee that were brand new build construction. I wrote less than asking price. The builder said, “No,” they didn’t want it. They’re coming down less than what I offered.
Now, of course, I wrote those offers when rates were a lot better, so it would still be more money even though I got them at a lower price if I bought them today, but I’m seeing stuff is sitting there for a lot longer that used to be flying off the shelves. I don’t think that there’s any like, “I got to buy right now.” If you’re not in a strong financial position, hang tight, improve that. Make more money, pay off some debt. Keep some money in reserves, and when you’ve got a healthy amount of money in reserves that you know will help you to sleep well at night, then you can consider buying the next property. Thank you for the question.
All right. Our next question comes from Blake Z in Minnetonka, Minnesota. Hey, David. I love this show. I’ve been listening for about six months now and just recently finished How to Invest in Real Estate by Brandon Turner. The more I read or listen on the subject, the more excited I get and the more I’m thinking of what opportunities are available, whether that be now or in the near future. One opportunity that I cannot get off my mind is our family Cabin in Hayward, Wisconsin.
Side note, guys, am I the only one that is just now realizing how many different states share the names of cities? I think I’ve told the story before where there was a wholesaler that sold me a cabin in Nashville, and I was super excited about it, and I put it under contract, and after I put it under contract, I realized that it was in Nashville, Indiana, that it was not in Nashville, Tennessee, and it just looked exactly like it, and the numbers actually still worked on it, so I was still going to go forward to buying it until the appraisal came in way lower than the appraisal they originally had, so I had to back out. But there’s a Hayward in California that I go to all the time. There’s an awesome restaurant there called the Red Chili that I love, and now there’s a Hayward in Wisconsin. Is Hayward that popular of a name that every state out there wants their version of it?
And I’m seeing this like all the time. There’s all these different cities that different states have that you would assume is the main one that we’ve all heard of, and then you find out, “No, Wisconsin has their own version of this city.” Okay. Back to the question off of my rant. It’s been in the family for about 30 years now. While it could use a little work and as one of the best views on the lake, it has never been rented this day and my dad is nearing retirement. He has about 230,000 left on the mortgage and the cabinet’s worth roughly 650,000 in its current state. With talk of retirement, eliminating a monthly expense of $2,400, it’s becoming very enticing to him. Nothing would hurt me more than seeing that place that is most important to me go, but it is a real possibility the next few years if we don’t come up with a plan. My dream for the property be to take down the short-term rental route through Airbnb or Vrbo.
I put together an Excel sheet outlining all the costs, showing the comps in the area, and outline the annual yield that he could have at various occupancy rates. My end goal in this would be to set it up so that rather than selling it, I could help manage and work on this so that I can earn equity and hopefully purchase it from him myself. Do you think this is a realistic scenario and a good idea for something that could help me build my portfolio in the future? Thank you in advance.
All right, Blake Z. Here’s what I’m thinking. Let’s assume you can manage this thing. I would like to see you go that route. Now, your dad may want to sell it, but the first question is what does he need the money for? He’s got roughly 400,000 in equity in this thing. Does he need that cash? Maybe not. Let’s assume he doesn’t need the cash. He also doesn’t want that $2,400 a month of expenses just sitting there as he goes into retirement and his own income is going to drop.
So here’s a potential strategy that could work for all of you. You tell your dad, “I want a lease option to buy this house at whatever price you think if you think.” It’s worth 650, maybe you get a lease option to buy at 550. Maybe he hooks you up a little bit because you’re his son. Now that means you have the option to buy the house for this price in a certain period of time, but it doesn’t solve your dad’s problem of that $2,400 a month mortgage that he doesn’t want to have. While you have the option to buy that house, you’re actually going to gain control over it, meaning you can use it for purposes that you want to use it for. That doesn’t mean you have to live in it. Least options usually work with someone living in the house and paying rent.
But what you could do is take over the property, pay the $2,400 a month for your dad, so that solves the first problem he has of not wanting that money. And then you rent it out like you’re saying. And if you can manage this thing profitably, he gets $2,400 a month so he doesn’t have a payment anymore, you get some cash flow for managing the property and maybe you kick your dad some extra money because you’re managing it for him. So now he’s not in any hurry to get rid of that property. You also have a lease option to buy it for less than what you think it’s worth, but you’re not obligated to buy it, so you’re not in any distress, so you don’t take on any risk because if you don’t want to buy it for the 550, you don’t.
Your dad’s not taking on any risk because he’s getting that mortgage paid and some extra money coming his way from you. You’re also building up the skills of managing a property and your dad gets to feel good that he’s hooking you up, not giving it away to some stranger. I think that this would work for all parties involved. The keys you want to make sure you’re good at is you can manage this thing. If you don’t know how to manage a short-term rental, then this plan is going to fall apart and your dad doesn’t need the 400 grand for something else. If he needs that money for something else, the strategy is probably not a good idea.
But I like how you’re thinking. You’re approaching this the right way. I think this is something you could do and something needs to be done because if this cabin is just sitting there earning zero income for all of these years, and your dad’s just bleeding 2,400 a month for the right to have a vacation home that your family would go use. You could still use it, just don’t let it sit there and be useless in the meantime. Make that sucker generate some revenue, and if your family wants to use it, just don’t book it for those times. Nothing will change from your dad’s perspective other than he gets the right to use the cabin and doesn’t have to pay the 2,400 a month and you get to be the good son that makes money for yourself and money for him. All right. Our last question comes from Nick Anthony in Santa Monica.

Nick:
Hey David. My name is Nick Anthony coming to you live from beautiful Santa Monica, California. And my question for you is regarding asset management. I started a new gig, overseeing a portfolio of about 30 multi-family properties ranging from like six to 20 units here in Los Angeles. And I come from a long history of property management and leasing of these apartment spaces. So my question for you is pretty broad, but basic what your day-to-day roles were for your asset manager.
I assume you know, have properties throughout the country, but does she or they just focus on one area? What are the day-to-day things that they do for you and the things that you have your management team do for you? What are the differences between your property managers and your asset managers? And I don’t want to step on any toes with the management teams, but at the same time, I want to help out the principal as much as I can. Thank you so much for your time, and I hope this question makes sense. Thanks a lot.

David:
All right, Nick, this is a really good question. I like you asking it now. The person that was running my properties is my asset manager. Had another job. They were supposed to leave that job and come work for me. They got a raise at that job. They decided they didn’t want to do it, so they’re actually not managing my properties in that sense. I don’t have an asset manager. My personal assistant Krista is taking over that role of communicating with property managers. But I will still answer the question for you about how you want them to be working and then give you some advice of how this can go wrong.
First thing, say, when you advertise that you want an asset manager, a lot of people will say, “I want the job. I want the job,” because they love the title of asset manager. They love the fact that they get to say they do this, but there also is this understanding that it’s going to be less work because there’s already property managers in place. You have to be very careful with this because it can become a job where somebody makes a good income but doesn’t have to do a lot of work. And if you’re not careful, not only will they not do a lot of work, but they will not actively work to save you money. They will actively work to make their job as easy as possible. This is a frequent problem whenever you start to delegate stuff like this.
So in my experience, the people that I’ve hired to do roles like an asset manager, they were not often always an asset manager, could have been a chief operating officer for a company. Anybody that manages other humans can easily say, “Hey, this happened boss, this happened boss, this happened boss, what do you want to do?” And you say, “I want to do this.” And then they go, “Okay.” And then they tell people what you said and then they come back and say, “This happened.” And that’s not a job. This is just a person getting paid to be a notification system that an email could have served. You want a person that is actively working to save you or make you money in that business and that the salary you pay them is less than the money that they make or save you with their presence. That is the key.
So to define terms here, a property manager is the person that deals with the property directly and the problems that occur in it. So this would be a person managing a short-term rental, a medium-term rental, a long-term rental. I have a property management company for a lot of my regular rental properties that find the tenants that collect the rent, that tell me when something goes wrong and go find a person to go out there to fix it. That let me know when there’s a vacancy and if there’s an issue like an eviction or late rent, they handle it and tell me what happened. They’re actually doing work, and so they get a cut of the rent for that. All right.
An asset manager is a person that manages those people. So rather than your property manager coming to you and say, “Hey, here’s what happened.” They go to the asset manager and the asset manager makes the decisions. In addition to managing the property managers, your asset managers should be looking for ways to help you acquire more properties and run those properties more profitably. So let’s say you have a lot of short-term rentals, your asset manager should be looking at things like, “If we reinvested this much money in the backyard, we can increase our return by this much money and our investment would be paid back over a two year period of time.” Or if we sold this property and we reinvested the money into a property over here, we could increase our revenue by 50% because the return on equity would be much higher.
That is how an asset manager should be thinking. They should be looking at like, let’s say I have a triple net property that is a commercial deal, and so we have to review leases for that property when the tenant leaves or when we have a new person that wants to rent the space. You don’t want an asset manager that says, “Hey Nick. What do you want to do? This is what they’re offering.” You want an asset manager that goes and negotiates for you to get the rent as high as you can get it, or does the due diligence on the tenant to say, “Let’s skip this one, or Let’s go with this one.” They need to be actively looking for ways to save you money. That’s the key that I want to highlight to everybody here.
It is so easy when you hire an employee for that employee to get all of… I get a name tag on my desk. I get to say I’m the chief operating officer. I am the asset manager of so-and-so. I’m a big deal. But when you actually look at what they do all day, they’re not saving you money. They’re not actively looking to make you money. They’re actually just trying to collect the paycheck you give them and do as little work as possible. That’s what you want to avoid. The right asset manager will save you or make you more money than what their salary is.
So on the other side of this coin, if you’re listening to this and you’re thinking, “Well, I’d like to be an asset manager for somebody,” that’s your challenge. Can you figure out a way to know enough about real estate to know enough strategy to be savvy and smart enough to save somebody else more money than what it costs to hire you? Now, everyone will go out there and say, “Well, I can save you time. Hire me, and you won’t have to check your email inbox.” Well, that’s true, but how much is that really worth? Is that worth 100 grand a year to have someone that can monitor my emails and come say, “Hey David. This thing went wrong. What do you want to do?” No, I can have a personal assistant do that. And right now that is what’s happening is Krista comes to me and says… In fact, we just got out of our meeting right before we started recording this.
“Here’s all the things going wrong. There’s been a lot of storms in California. Here’s all the trees that fell over on the properties. What do you want to do?” And I say, “Go get quotes from these tree companies to get it cleared.” And she goes and makes notes and puts it in her CRM and she does that. “Hey David. We got the bid back for the home theater that you want to put in this cabinet. It’s going to be $6,600. Okay. Give me an itemized bid from the contractor that says what I’m going to be getting for the $6,600. Okay. I’m on it boss, and she comes back.” I don’t need an asset manager for that. I just need the person to keep it organized. You might not need an asset manager, you might just need a personal assistant and you might not even need them for 40 hours a week. It might be someone you could pay 10 or 15 hours a week to just keep you in the loop of what’s going on and you make the decisions.
When you hire the asset manager, you are paying them for their decision-making ability and the fact that they know more about real estate than you do. It typically doesn’t happen until you’re managing like big apartment complexes and you want to go hire someone that understands the balloon payment structure of financing and how to increase the NOI so that when you have to renew the mortgage, you’re going to get approved to do another deal. You want to have someone that understands value add and dealing with contractors and can save you money and increase rents, not someone that just says, “Tell me what you want me to do.”
So again, you want to increase your income, you want to climb the ladder, and you want to get to the position of asset manager. Don’t worry about saving people time, worry about saving people money. Thank you, Nick for that question. I hope it answered what you were looking for, and I also hope I help you avoid some red flags or bad hires in the future because they’re very easy to make even when you have the best of intentions.
All right, guys. That wraps up another Seeing Greene episode, and that one was pretty fun. We got to talk a lot of real life stuff. Asset managers, having a hard time finding properties in a hot market, when a job should be quit, when time should be put towards entrepreneurial ventures versus the W2 world. All that and more. I want to thank you guys for being here. If you’d like to learn more about me, you could find me @DavidGreene24 all over social media. There’s a E at the end of Greene. You could also go to davidgreene24.com, which is a website I’m having made at probably around this time this airs, it should be up and running, talk about more of what I could do to help you.
I also have a library of books that I’ve written with BiggerPockets publishing. You could check those out at biggerpockets.com/store. And most importantly, please make sure you leave us a comment on this YouTube channel. If you’re listening or leave us a five star review wherever you listen to podcasts. I’d love you guys for that because I working very hard to keep this the top real estate investing podcast in the world.
Thank you very much for being here. I know that you could give your time and your attention to anybody, so it means a lot that you’re here with me. I hope I help you make some money and save some of that money that you’ve already made, and I hope you get one step closer to the financial freedom that we all desire. Thank you guys. If you have a minute, watch another video, and if not, I will see you next week.

 

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.





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China’s real estate crisis isn’t over yet, IMF says

China’s real estate crisis isn’t over yet, IMF says


China’s real estate market has slumped in the last two years after Beijing cracked down on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth.

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China needs to do more in order to fix its real estate problems, the International Monetary Fund said Friday.

The property market contributes to about a quarter of China’s GDP and has been a drag on growth, especially since Beijing cracked down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020.

Chinese authorities started to ease restrictions on financing for the sector over the last several months.

“Authorities’ recent policy measures are welcome, but in our view additional action will be needed in order to end the real estate crisis,” Thomas Helbling, deputy director in the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, said in a briefing.

“If you look at the measures, a lot of them address financing issues for the developers that are still in relatively good financial health, so that will help,” he added in an interview with CNBC. “But the problems of the property developers’ facing severe financial difficulties are not yet addressed. The issue of the large stock of unfinished housing more broadly is not yet addressed.”

China is slowly coming back, Dassault Systemes CEO says

Apartments in China are typically sold to homebuyers before completion. Covid and financial difficulties slowed construction so much that some homebuyers halted their mortgage payments last summer in protest.

Chinese authorities subsequently emphasized the need to help developers finish building those pre-sold apartments. Still, residential floor space sold in China dropped by nearly 27% last year, while real estate investment fell by 10%, according to official numbers.

“I think it would be helpful to point to a way out and … how the restructuring could be done and who will absorb losses if there are any losses,” Helbling said. He also called for additional measures to address the large stock of unfinished apartments.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

“Otherwise the sector will continue to slump and remain a risk and also constrain households that are overexposed to the property sector, and will have cash tied up and their savings tied up which will be a handicap for the broader economic recovery,” he said.

Helbling declined to name a specific timeframe within which authorities needed to act before the situation got much worse.

“The sooner you address downside risks the better.”

China says it’s not a crisis

Chinese property developers such as Country Garden, Longfor and R&F Properties have seen their shares nearly double or more over the last 60 trading days — about three months, according to Wind Information. But trading in shares of one-time giants Evergrande, Shimao and Sunac have been halted since March 2022.

The IMF report pointed out that a significant portion of investors in Chinese developers’ bonds have been affected.

“As of November 2022, developers that have already defaulted or are likely to default — with average bond prices below 40 percent of face value — represented 38 percent of the 2020 market share of firms with available bond pricing,” the report said.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

“The sector’s contraction is also leading to strains in local governments. Falling land sale revenues have reduced their fiscal capacity at the same time as local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) have also significantly increased land purchases.”

The IMF on Monday raised its global growth expectations for the year due to better-than-expected growth in major countries late last year, softening inflationary pressures and the end of China’s Covid controls.

The new 2.9% forecast for the world is 0.2 percentage points better than anticipated in October. But it’s still a slowdown from 3.4% growth in 2022.

For China, the IMF projects growth of 5.2% this year, faster than the 3% pace in 2022.

— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed to this report.



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How To Show Your Business A Little More Love

How To Show Your Business A Little More Love


Entrepreneurship is a long, complicated road, often littered with unforeseen landmines and fires that need to be put out. It’s not a lifestyle for the timid, and its fast-paced nature rarely presents opportunities for contemplative reflection. As 2023 unfolds, however, it’s important to take a step back and look at areas where your business may need more attention in order to achieve your goals.

We interviewed prominent leaders at three companies and asked them why they thinking taking a step back to review company processes is a necessary task. Where should they begin?

“Entrepreneurs start their companies to pursue their dreams,” says Greg Alexander, CEO at Collective 54, the first mastermind community for boutique professional services firms. “Yet, in pursuit of these dreams, life gets in the way. Between emails, Zoom calls, and client meetings, it’s important to step back from time to time to sift through the noise and remember why you’re in business to begin with.”

Harshith Ramesh, co-CEO of Episource, a leading provider of risk adjustment services, software, and solutions for health plans and medical groups, said he tries to look at tasks in terms of the “Eisenhower Matrix,” a 2×2 table grouping tasks by how important and urgent they are.

“When you’re building a business — and especially in the early stages when you’re in high-growth mode — you end up spending all your time in the ‘important and urgent’ bucket,” he says. “In the early days, it’s okay; you’re doing everything you can to get and keep customers. You’re trying to survive and just get it done. However, you have to keep in mind that you start racking up organizational debt while doing so.”

What if ‘what if’ happens?

Larry Clarke, CEO at NanoGuard Technologies, which leverages the power of technology to prevent food and feed waste and aid food recovery efforts, understands the pressures of a startup lifestyle all-too-well. When asked how he’s doing, he answers matter-of-factly that he’s spinning like a top.

“While it is true, it is also seen as a badge of honor. In reality, my answer should be ‘I am quietly reflecting on the long-term business strategy and direction.’ Doesn’t have the same pizzazz, does it?”

While a startup requires that everyone be willing to step up and do a little bit of everything, a CEO needs to be able to look back and evaluate what’s working in order to sow the seeds of future success.

“That means allotting specific time to step back and review the greater marketplace, the long-term goals of the business, and how to articulate these to myself and stakeholders,” Clarke says. “Someone must always be thinking about the ‘what if.’ What if the technology doesn’t work? What if the markets change? What if someone else bring along a better, more disruptive mousetrap? Someone needs to be considering Plan B and C. And even D.”

Startups, by their very nature, run the risk of needing to pivot on a dime. But when they focus to the point of obsession, they can’t accomplish that easily and may miss out on prime opportunities.

“Taking time to let your mind wander is a good thing,” says Clarke.

Going from doer to thinker

The leaders of small companies are scrappy and prefer to get things done, so going from a “doer” to a “thinker” is not an easy transition. To force the issue, Clarke believes that blocking off a set period in the day for “big-picture” thinking is key.

“Making the time is time well-spent because it is the effort, that over time, creates value. I take time out at some point in each day to just think,” said Clarke. That structure—and the right tools—are helpful to get into that contemplative mindset.

“I like a whiteboard,” says Clarke. “Also, thinking out loud helps me. Having someone to listen and question your thoughts in a broad way, not trying to direct you, but creating an open dialogue to help the process along.”

Ramesh said he makes it a point to block off some time on his calendar on a weekly basis to address these “Important & Not Urgent” issues.

“Historically, our company ran pretty lean,” he said. “However, over the last few years, we’ve over-invested in our organization, hiring executives and managers in key positions in which one of their primary responsibilities is to focus on where the business most needs attention. We ask that our executives and managers dedicate around 20-30% of their time to these issues and how they can optimize the business. Thus, it’s important that entrepreneurs and business leaders take some time to step back and address what’s in the bucket of ‘Important & Not Urgent.’”

Asking the right questions

As you think about your business processes and procedures, here are a few guiding questions that you can consider:

● Are we properly investing in all areas of the business (finance, legal, compliance, IT, sales, etc.)?

● Do we have a strong people program and culture? Are we developing leaders? Do we have a strong hiring and training process? Do we have competitive compensation and performance management?

● What does our three-year plan look like?

● What are the biggest risks to the business? Do we have plans in place to mitigate those risks?

● Could we improve our consultants, advisors, and/or board of directors?

In Ramesh’s experience, a business can’t — and shouldn’t — be overly dogmatic about sustainability and scalability.

“In the early stages of growing a business, it’s especially critical to understand your clients, build solutions to solve their needs, and generate revenue,” says Ramesh. “If you consciously make the decision to move fast in the business’s infancy, know that down the line you’ll need to refocus your energies and strike a new balance to create a scalable, long-term business.”

While you’re looking forward, take the time to look backward, too. Twice per year, Alexander reviews the original business plan he wrote before launching his firm in 2019.

“A lot has changed since then. Many of my assumptions were wrong, and some were correct. But, what has not changed is the mission, vision, values, and goals I set forth pre-launch,” Alexander says. “I remind myself of these and screen the current reality against them. If we are not living the mission, vision, values, and goals, we recalibrate. These are the North Star, and they never change. But the business tactics change all the time.

“It takes 15 years to become an overnight success. As much as things change, the truly important items change very little.”



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How to Find Out Who Owns a Property and Direct Mail 101

How to Find Out Who Owns a Property and Direct Mail 101


You stumble across the perfect rental property, but you don’t know who owns it. So what do you do? Walk up the door and present an offer? Ask the neighbors? Or, is there a better way to do some sneaky searching that could land you the perfect off-market real estate deal? The rookies want to know, and on this Rookie Reply, we’ll get into EXACTLY how to do this, even if you’re starting without much money!

We’re back for one of our last live Rookie Reply episodes! This time, we’re touching on questions about finding off-market property information, what to include in your direct mail letters, and why a home wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage. We’ll also hit on commonly asked title questions and whether or not you can buy real estate while underwater on another mortgage. So, if you’re trying to get your next deal off-market, this is the perfect episode to listen to a few times through!

If you want Ashley and Tony to answer a real estate question, you can post in the Real Estate Rookie Facebook Group! Or, call us at the Rookie Request Line (1-888-5-ROOKIE).

Ashley:
This is Real Estate Rookie episode 258. So one of the first ways that you can look at a property for free and get some information on it is going to your county’s GIS mapping system. So if you know what county this property is that you just drove by, you’re going to Google Erie County GIS mapping system. It’ll take you to the county website where there’s a link to their mapping system where you can put in the address of the property. You can kind of zoom in on a map on the property and it’s going to give you some generic details about the property. My name is Ashley Kehr and I’m here with my co-host, Tony Robinson.

Tony:
And welcome to the Real Estate Rookie Podcast, where every week, twice a week, we bring you the inspiration, motivation, and stories you need to hear to kickstart your investing journey. And today I want to shout out Chad and Emily who left us a five-star review on Apple Podcast. They say, “Longtime VP listener, but I love the way the host keep it simple and actionable. If you’re just beginning and don’t need deeper understanding of the nuances in real estate, this is where to start. Using this podcast and other VP content, we have purchased an investment tri-plus last year, even during these hots market conditions and now have the lot next door in our contract with seller financing. This show really works.”
Chad and Emily, congrats to you guys on all that success, and thank you for that five-star review. And if you’re listening and haven’t yet love to say five-star review, please take just a few minutes out of your day, do that small favorite for us. The more reviews we get, the more folks we can reach, more folks we can reach, more folks we can help. Ashley Kehr, how you doing?

Ashley:
So once again, we are live in Phoenix. This is what, probably the-

Tony:
Episode 333 that we’ve done here.

Ashley:
But they’re all in different orders that we did, but for a while we’re going to be doing some live recordings. So let us know how you guys ended up liking these episodes in person. I feel like it’s a lot more fun to get to talk-

Tony:
Actually sitting here with me.

Ashley:
And actually for this episode, this is the last one we’re recording before we head to the airport. My actually flight just got delayed, so we’ll see if I actually make it home.

Tony:
I don’t know if you guys know this about Ashley, but she probably has the worst travel luck out of anyone I’ve ever, literally ever met. She went to Florida and it hurricaned in Florida when she was there last time. It’s like everywhere you go.

Ashley:
Yeah. And then I went back to New York, so Florida was a state of emergency. I went to New York, they had a big snowstorm state of emergency.

Tony:
And right now she gets a flight saying blizzard warning for her layover in Denver.

Ashley:
And that’s not even the flight that’s delayed. I’m delayed to Denver, so I’m sure if I do make it to Denver then [inaudible 00:02:35]-

Tony:
It’ll be even longer. So anyway, the lesson to take away from this is if you find yourself on a flight with Ashley, get off.

Ashley:
So we decided for our last episode here together for this one, we are actually going to have a drink. I think that probably during the episode we were talking so much we each only took one sip maybe, or two.

Tony:
[inaudible 00:02:59].

Ashley:
So if you’re listening to the show, feel free to have a drink with us.

Tony:
Well, you know it’s bad luck to cheers and not drink.

Ashley:
I’m focused on the cheers.

Tony:
[inaudible 00:03:08].

Ashley:
So Tony, what was your favorite part about being in Phoenix and the meetup?

Tony:
First, if you guys came out to the meet up, we appreciate you guys. If you missed it, please do go to the Real Estate Rookie Facebook group, we’re the BiggerPockets forums. Let us know where you guys want to see us next. We really do want to take the show on the road and meet more people from the rookie audience.
I think my favorite part of being here was hearing the stories. I met so many amazing people. I met a kid who was 19 years old already thinking about investing in real estate. Met another guy that was 20 years old already door knocking, trying to find deals. I met someone who flew all the way from Ohio. I met people who, just so many different stories and so many different achievements and so many different successes. And that’s what makes this role that we have as podcast hosts so incredibly …

Ashley:
Yeah. I mean, I’m on East coast time right now, so I was up pretty early, but I have to see the energy in that room yesterday motivated me to get to work right away this morning.

Tony:
People always tell us, they come up to us and say, “Tony, Ashley, thank you guys so much for everything you do on the podcast.” And I heard a little bit of that last night as well. And what always tell people is that, really, all we do is we answer the …

Ashley:
We facilitate it.

Tony:
Right, we facilitate the conversation, but the people that really bring the value are the guests for sharing their stories. And then really, it’s all the listeners who take those stories and turn them into action. Because we could put out this podcast, people could listen and do nothing with it and no one would really care. But it’s the fact that people are hearing these stories and doing something with it that makes all the difference. So kudos to you guys for taking action.

Ashley:
So if you guys want to find out more about meetups and events that BiggerPockets is doing, you can go to biggerpockets.com/events.

Tony:
All right, so we’ll get into the first question. Today’s question number one comes from Sam Ecmillian, and Sam, I hope I got your last name right there. But Sam’s question is, what is the best way to find the name and the number of a property owner? On the way home, I see this one home that’s been what appears to be abandoned for over a year, and I would like to get in touch with the owners to buy it. Any help is greatly appreciated. So Ashley, as you’re driving through Western New York and you see those houses that you want to buy, what steps are you taking to find those property owners?

Ashley:
This is why I don’t like to drive so that I can take action right away and actually look up the property.

Tony:
You have other people drive you.

Ashley:
Yeah, so-

Tony:
Wait, let me ask a question. Can that be a business write-off then? Say that you hire someone to drive you around-

Ashley:
Oh, definitely.

Tony:
… just so that you can look at deals.

Ashley:
Or even just so that I can do work-

Tony:
Work.

Ashley:
… in the backseat.

Tony:
Man.

Ashley:
Actually, we were talking today about how I put in a reservation for the Ford Lightning, the electric Ford. And part of the features of it was it actually had a desk tabletop that would flip out from the [inaudible 00:05:52] console. That was one of the selling points, like I can actually use it.

Tony:
So a new tax strategies unlocked here on the Rookie podcast.

Ashley:
So one of the first ways that you can look at a property for free and get some information on it is going to your county’s GIS mapping system. So if you know what county this property is that you just drove by, we’re going to Google Erie County GIS mapping system and it’ll take you to the county website where there’s a link to their mapping system where you can put in the address of the property. You can kind of zoom in on a map on the property and it’s going to give you some generic details about the property.
So you’ll have the address, you’ll have the current owner, sometimes it will include the sales history of the property, what the county property taxes are, and then also a mailing address for the owner. So that’s the address that is actually on the tax record where the property taxes are mailed.
So you can get an idea of, if the mailing address shows out-of-state, it’s probably an out-of-state owner. If the property taxes aren’t mailed to that property and appears to be vacant, well then that’s kind of a dead end because if you mail the property, mail to that property, you’re not really going to get anyone if you do know that it’s vacant or maybe it’s just really distressed and it’s really not vacant. So that would be the starting point is going on there.
You could also go to the town website and pull up the property taxes. Almost all municipalities have the property taxes online that you can go and you just put in the address and it’ll pull up the property tax record showing the mailing address and the current property owner. And then there’s paid services like PropStream where you can pay $99 per month to get access to information like that. And then also Invelo is a new partner with BiggerPockets where you can pull information like that too. So if you’re a pro member that is free.

Tony:
Yeah, I’ve used the paid software a lot to source all of our off-market deals and it’s super cool. 30 seconds or less, you find the property, plug the address in, skip trace the owner and you got some contact information.

Ashley:
Do you want to talk more about skip tracing because I touched on the mailing address if you’re mailing them letters.

Tony:
Yeah, so it’s a lot of times, these property softwares, they will give you as part of your initial subscription, the property owner’s name and address. But if you want a phone number, typically you have to skip trace. And skip trace comes from, I don’t know where it comes from, but anyway, the process of skip tracing is, I don’t know what it does in the backend, but it takes this person’s information, their name, their addresses, and it looks for some kind of records online that have phone numbers associated with that person’s information. And then it spits out a phone number for that person.
Typically, you’re going to get several phone numbers and you don’t know which one is the right one. You could get up to 10 phone numbers back for one person and you got to work through each one of those 10 to find the right phone number. And sometimes you’ll call, say you’re calling for Ashley and maybe you find Ashley’s brother and, “This is not Ashley Kehr, this is …” Ashley, what’s your brother’s name?

Ashley:
Chad.

Tony:
“This is Chad Kehr. What are you calling for?”

Ashley:
Malloy.

Tony:
Oh yeah, Malloy. But anyway, sometimes you have to work through some of those dead leads. Some of the other issues that I run into sometimes with some of these paid software is that when you look up the owner, sometimes it’s an LLC, and with an LLC it doesn’t really show what an owner’s name is. Sometimes it’s a PO Box, so it’s hard to figure out where to mail that stuff.
So what I typically do when it’s an LLC or some kind of entity is I look that up on the state, the Secretary of State website. So every state has an SOS website, Secretary of State, and if you plug in that entity’s name, so 123 Main Street LLC, and then it shows who the registered agent is, sometimes a mailing address. And then there’s one step further you can take to try and find that person’s contact information.

Ashley:
And if you remember when you were a toddler and you went to somebody’s house and they didn’t have a booster seat, they give you that big old phone book to sit on as a booster seat. So you can go online these days and go to the whitepages.com and you can even search the person’s name on there too by state. So if you do get their mailing address, you might even be able to get a phone number off of the white pages too.

Tony:
Have you used that with success before, the Whitepages?

Ashley:
Yeah.

Tony:
I know that it’s around, but I’ve never actually used it, but that you’ve actually had success with it.

Ashley:
Yeah. And also another way too is if you have the person’s name, so if it’s a personal name and maybe you have their mailing address so you know that they’re from the Buffalo, New York and you go on to Facebook and search their name on Facebook too and see if anybody comes up, that it shows that Tony Robinson from Buffalo, New York, he has it in his profile, comes up, you can take that risk and message the person, “Hey, are you the owner of this property?”

Tony:
That’s like some next level type sleuthing there. Have you seen You on Netflix?

Ashley:
Yeah.

Tony:
That’s like some Joe type activity. So for all my You fans out there, you know what I’m talking about. Cool. All right, let’s jump into the next question here. So question number two today comes from Will Harrington and Will says, “For those of you who do direct mail, do you list your offer price and terms in the letter or is the goal to get them on the phone first?”
That’s a great question, Will, and I’ll kind of share what steps I take in this. So when you send direct mail, think about it almost like dating. And you like the dating analogy with partnerships, but it works well for this as well. When you date someone, when you first meet them, you don’t say, “I love you and I want to marry you.” You say, “Hi, my name is Tony, what’s your name?”
And when you’re going off market, it’s very much the same process. Two reasons that I would recommend you don’t give the offer up front. First, it could turn that person off if the offer is way too low, they might not even take the time to respond to you and maybe they would’ve taken that offer had you really built some rapport with them first and communicated the value you can provide to them and all those other things. But they just see the number first. If it’s lower than what they want, they may not even take the time to communicate with you.
And on the flip side, if your number’s super high and they respond right away and say, “Yes, take my home,” it’s probably a sign that you could have gotten it for a lower price. So I think the purpose of that direct mail is just to express your interest in purchasing that property and then it’s the phone to phone or the face-to-face or on the phone conversations where you build that relationship and provide the value to get it at the right price.

Ashley:
The person that I want to refer you guys to is Nate Robbins. So on Instagram he’s N8, the number eight, Robins, and I have him onto every bootcamp session I do to talk about direct mail and cold calling.
So what he does is I agree, not putting the terms because you haven’t even seen the inside of the property yet most likely. So you don’t actually know what you can really offer the person, but when he actually sends out the letter and then maybe they call him or he’s just doing a cold call or door knocking, he likes to let the person know. And within the first 30 seconds, the reason for the call is, because there’s that kind of you’re getting a call from somebody unknown or you’re calling someone and letting them know, “I’m interested in purchasing your property.” And then that’s where you kind of lead into, “Let’s discuss more about it.”
And he tries to get as much information as he can and if they ask for an offer, “Well, what do you want me to sell it for? What are you going to pay for it? What’s your purchase price, what’s your offer?” And he goes on to say, “To give you a fair, reasonable price, I would really need to come and see the property. I don’t want to waste your time by giving you some number that I’m throwing out without actually seeing the property itself. I’m available to tomorrow, I can come out to the property, I can take a look at it and I can give you an exact number instead of a ballpark number as to what I would offer for.”
And really explains that it’s to the seller’s benefit that they’re going to take him through the property and show him instead of him just throwing out some random number because he is letting them know it wouldn’t be a number he could commit to without seeing the property anyways. So what would be the point?

Tony:
Yeah, that’s a great point. And there really is a framework you can apply to direct to seller conversations. And Nate Robbins is a great resource. Brit Daniels, he’s got a bunch of free stuff on YouTube where he breaks down his scripts with folks. Another guy by the name of Max Maxwell who’s also been on, I think on one of the BP podcasts before. He’s got a great kind of framework around how he speaks to people. So do a little YouTube university, you guys can find some great resources on how to communicate with those people when you got them on the phone.

Ashley:
Our next question is from Iva Forton. “Newbie here, what are the reasons a house wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage?”

Tony:
That’s a great question. Have you ever applied for a loan and it not gotten approved because of the condition of the home?

Ashley:
No.

Tony:
I haven’t either. But I think it’s because I have purchased homes that I think have been in pretty terrible shape.

Ashley:
You didn’t try to get the loan.

Tony:
I didn’t try to get a traditional loan. We went with private money are hard money. So I don’t know. What would your advice be to Iva?

Ashley:
So part of the reasons is that it’s inhabitable. So especially if you’re going for an FHA loan or maybe even a BA loan where it’s meant to be your primary residence and they want you living in the property pretty quickly after closing. So they will actually go through and FHA does their own inspection. This is separate than you hiring an inspector, they’re mostly going through to making sure that the property is habitable, all the mechanics are functioning, that it’s also up to code.
So I remember when my cousin bought a house with an FHA loan, they had to have handrails installed on the stairway because it wasn’t up to code without those handrails, and they couldn’t close on their FHA loan until that was done on the property. So there’s things like that.
But then if you’re going the conventional route where there is no FHA inspection, it’s more flexible, but also the bank may not go onto the property if it doesn’t have running water, things like that. Bank sometimes will require that you have a well and a septic inspection. So if those are not operating, that needs to be corrected. But that can get pretty expensive too to do.

Tony:
Yeah, and what we talked about so far is the physical nature of the home, but it’s also the nature of the contract you have. So another reason that a home wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage is if the amount that you have it under contract for is higher than what the property’s actually appraised for.
So say you’re trying to buy a house for half a million bucks, but the bank only thinks it’s worth 400,000, they’re not going to give you a loan for that $500,000. They’re going to give you a loan for the $400,000 and now you as a borrower are responsible for that $100,000 difference. So that’s the only other scenario I can really think of outside of the condition.

Ashley:
Actually, that made me think of one more, and it would be if you cannot get title insurance on the property. So a bank will not give you a loan on a property if they can’t get title insurance. And that’s basically saying when the title company went and did the title work to show that yes, the person’s selling it is the owner and you are now the buyer going on title and there’s no liens, there’s no judgments, nobody else owns it, you’re getting title insurance in case they made a mistake so that you’re able to, the insurance will pay out, you can pay off your loan and pay damages from having this corrected or you lose the house to the person was actually the owner, but the bank will not lend on it if you can’t get that title insurance. So I’ve come up with this in two circumstances.
One was a campground where it was actually sold at the county auction for back taxes. The bank actually that had the mortgage on it is the one who bought it from the county at the sales auction. During that time period, there was no title insurance put on the property to show those two transactions. So it going from the owner that defaulted to the county and then the sale from the county to the bank.
So a title insurance would not put title insurance onto that property for so many years, like a time period had to pass. And if nobody claimed ownership or called out an issue in the title, then they would go ahead and reinstate that. But that means that there was no bank that was going to lend on it, and that’s coming up with cash to hold that property in cash until it was bank financing.
The second time I ran into it as a lake property where they had a separate parcel that was included into the sale, but the separate parcel was actually where the driveway was, so it needed to be included with that house. The Lake Association had actually sold that piece of property to the current owners.
Well, it had actually been an abandoned piece of property and we couldn’t get title insurance on it because there was no record of any previous owner. And later on we actually did some digging and the sellers actually found a letter of abandonment. So with that letter then we were able to get title insurance, but if there wasn’t that letter then we wouldn’t be able to get title insurance and the bank wasn’t going to finance at that point.

Tony:
We should probably bring a title insurance expert onto the show.

Ashley:
Yeah, that’d be really cool.

Tony:
Just to talk about the purpose of title insurance, different claims that people have filed because title insurance for a lot of us is just something, like a box we check when we’re closing that your lenders typically make you get, but it’s not something that I think a lot of people understand in detail around what is it actually for? When can I use it? And what are the risks of not having title insurance?

Ashley:
Yeah, I actually did, last spring it was, I did a hard money loan and the closing was actually at the attorney’s office of the hard money lender and there was some issues with the title work there and they actually had a title attorney at the closing who was trying to figure out the situation. But it was a three-hour-long closing and we ended up not even figuring it out.
It was a Friday and we ended up having to wait until Monday to close. But we sat there and we literally just picked this title attorney’s brain going after all these scenarios and things and it was really interesting. I did ask him if he would like to come on the podcast and stuff. He’s like, “I do so many speaking events and things like that.” Here I am thinking here’s an opportunity, come, get some more clients, come to the podcast. He’s like, “Oh, I do so many speaking engagements, I’m really kind of burnt out.” I’m like, “Oh, okay.”

Tony:
You win some, you lose some. All right, so our next question here comes from Nathaniel Munier and Nathaniel’s question is, I have the opportunity to purchase four single family rentals from my wife’s relatives. They’re very upfront and honest about the houses. Would you do a title search on each of these properties or save the $1,000? This will save me some out-of-pocket costs, but it would be the property I’ve purchased without a title search. We kind of just touched on this, right?

Ashley:
Yeah, I would say no because they could not even know of the issue.

Tony:
Just because they think it’s clean doesn’t mean there wasn’t something happened before they owned. So I don’t think we need to spend too much time on this one because …

Ashley:
And usually it’s typically the seller that is paying for the title work because usually they should have the title search already or the abstract of title and give it to the title company and then it gets sent to your attorney and then you’re updating it from there.

Tony:
I think we pay for our title work.

Ashley:
Well, I think it’s split because it goes on both sides of it, but you can usually have the seller cover all of it, but there’s work that needs to be done on both ends. So there was actually a property I was selling that somehow we misplaced the title of abstract, the title search, so we had to pay for a new title search. So I’m thinking at the cost of that, that they probably don’t have the title search anymore, that being that it would cost $1,000 because usually it’s not that much to just update a title.

Tony:
And I was going to say, I’m not even sure what we pay for our title reports because it’s just something that’s rolled into our closing costs. So if you ask me what we pay, I can’t even tell you.

Ashley:
Yeah, my attorney, we usually pay around $1,200 per closing and she fronts the closing costs of doing the title work. So I know that she’s not making only $200 on it. So another thing that goes along with the title insurance is a survey. Sometimes a seller will ask you to accept the survey that they have.
So I actually just closed on a property last year where I accepted a survey from 1986. It was my attorney talked to the surveyors who had done it. The property was still went and staked out where the survey lines were and we accepted it as is. But that is something to also be cautious of if lot lines have changed and the survey has been different.
So there’s also been properties where we went to … the seller went to go have it surveyed and issues came up from the last time they had it surveyed until now, and they had to resolve those issues with the neighboring property owner before we could actually close onto the property. So that’s another thing to not skimp on if you’re not sure of the whole picture of the parcel.

Tony:
Yeah, I mean, I think for me, just the spirit of the question I think is what are some ways I can save money, but I think if you are making this several hundred thousand dollars investment into a property, spending that extra $1,000 to protect yourself is so worth that small investment because imagine if there was an issue with the title or the survey or whatever it was, that’s going to come back and potentially cost you way more headache, more cost and more time than the [inaudible 00:23:48] cost a thousand bucks or so.

Ashley:
And do people actually go and not do the title search? They must be just doing a quick claim deed and then updating the title, not actually going back and doing the title search.

Tony:
I’ve never not had a title report run, so I’m not even sure what the process is if you don’t. I literally couldn’t even tell you.

Ashley:
Yeah, because you’ll still have to pay a fee to have the title updated to show that you are now the deed, hold the deed on the property. Another thing to add on to that too is so within the last couple years, the market’s really hot. People are waiving inspections, everything like that, and you couldn’t have any kind of contingency on a property. But now that is kind of changing and also with this example where it’s your family, so I doubt that you’re competing against a ton of other buyers too.
So I think it would be perfectly acceptable to ask for these things. And even for anyone listening, if you’re putting in offers, now is not the time to skip an inspection. You’re at an advantage now that you can put an inspection into your property and it’s not going to be completely out of the bidding process, I guess.

Tony:
Yeah, I think in the last few years to be competitive, a lot of people were doing that, but for our rookies, I think it is a slippery slope because if you get into a property, there are some things this family, they might not even know that something’s wrong with the property. When’s the last time they scoped the sewer line or they check the HVAC or if there’s a septic tank, did they have the septic tank inspected? There’s so many things that are kind of behind closed doors that you can’t see unless you open up and do an inspection.

Ashley:
Or one thing may be okay to you or be okay to your father-in-law but not be okay to you like, “Oh yeah, every year I got to go in there and jiggle this thing.”

Tony:
It’s fine. It’s no big deal.

Ashley:
Yeah, no worries. The hot water tank, it maybe starts making noise, just give it a couple kicks.

Tony:
Everything’s good.

Ashley:
Because I think it’s way better to just go ahead with the inspection now and just be honest with them too and say, “You know what? I completely understand your honesty, but I would still like to do an inspection on all these things in case there’s things you guys don’t know about the property.” So if they’re rental properties and maybe it’s a septic or a sewer and you want to do a sewer scope is to, one of the tenants could’ve shoved something down there and it’s about to crack the pipe or something like that.

Tony:
Or even sometimes little things change in the code and what’s safe 30 years ago might not be safe today. We have a property where it was something about the wall in between the garage, the wall in between your home and the garage, there wasn’t enough fire protection in that wall. So it’s like there’s certain little things that pop up that you never know unless you actually do that inspection.
All right, so our next question comes from Emily P and Emily’s question is, does anyone know that if the housing market crashes, if you can buy a house for investment purposes if your primary residence is underwater? If I’m still making payments, but suddenly it’s value dropped by $200,000 and I owe more than it’s worth. So this is a great question, Emily, and just to paint a picture for the rookies in case that wasn’t clear.
What Emily’s question is, is say you have a primary residence that you bought for $500,000, that’s the amount of the mortgage that you have on that property. Your loan balance is $500,000, because the market shifts, say your appraised value to what your property would sell for today goes from 500,000 down to 200,000. Some big difference. So now you’re underwater on that property.
Emily’s question is, does the fact that I have negative equity, the loan balance on my house is higher than what the appraised value is, will that stop me from buying an investment property? The short answer is no, it shouldn’t. Typically when you’re going to apply for a new loan, what they are looking at to approve you for that mortgage is your debt to income ratio and your credit score. They want to know what is your profile as a borrower. As long as you are current on your mortgage, and as long as your credit score is still strong, you have the ability to get approved for that new mortgage with your debt to income ratio, typically they’re going to approve you for that loan.
What they won’t look at, and I don’t think you’ve ever had this happen before either, when you apply for a home, typically they are not going to go back and appraise all of the other properties that you own to make sure that they’re underwater or not underwater.

Ashley:
Yeah. The only reason they would do an appraisal on your primary residence is if you’re going to use that house as collateral for the loan. So if you’re getting a line of credit or refinancing your mortgage, or maybe you’re doing a portfolio loan where you’re including a rental property in your primary residence, but if you are not using that property as collateral, they’ll never go and ask.
And if they do ask what the value of that house is, you can tell them, I purchased the property for $500,000 in 2021 or whatever it is, and give them the purchase price of that property. Plus maybe if you did any improvements on it to show the value of the property.

Tony:
Yeah, I’m trying to think if there’s any risks associated with that happening where your primary residence goes underwater and as long as you’re like on long-term fixed debt and you have the ability to keep making those payments, I mean, hopefully eventually your house value’s going to rebound. Maybe the only time you get in trouble is if you’re on some kind of like adjustable rate mortgage or some kind of short term debt where the payment is one number today, but a year from now it’s going to adjust up to some higher number. Now you’ve got a mortgage that was 2,000, now it’s 5,000 or some other crazy high number, and now you don’t have the ability to carry both of those mortgages.

Ashley:
And that could happen even if your property has appreciated value, where that happens, where your payment changes, if you are on a variable, you switch to a variable interest rate. But the problem here is if you are underwater and you can’t afford what that new mortgage payment is, you can’t go and sell that property very easily without probably putting some money into the deal to pay it off or taking a big loss on it too.
Thank you guys so much for listening. I’m Ashley, @wealthfromrentals. And he’s Tony, @TonyJRobinson, and we will see you guys for the next episode.

 

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Eight Steps An Entrepreneur Can Take To Start Repairing Their Personal Brand

Eight Steps An Entrepreneur Can Take To Start Repairing Their Personal Brand


Everyone makes mistakes from time to time, and entrepreneurs are no exception. With so many pressures and responsibilities that affect not only themselves, but also their employees and customers, it’s almost inevitable that an entrepreneur will occasionally make a bad decision. However, sometimes big mistakes can lead to big consequences that can tarnish the entrepreneur’s reputation.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s no possibility of redemption. Here, eight Young Entrepreneur Council members discuss what an entrepreneur can do if they’re looking to improve their personal brand after making a mistake and why these methods are so effective at turning things around.

1. Own Your Past

Before you can improve a damaged brand, the first step is to own the choices you made that led to the mistake. While audiences don’t expect you to be perfect, they do expect you to be honest. Being accountable shows that you are responsible, that you have integrity and that you’re relatable. Audiences love when someone takes personal accountability and can get back up. Owning your mistakes makes you a much more powerful entrepreneur in the long run. – Shu Saito, All Filters

2. Highlight The Lessons You Learned

When presenting their personal brands, entrepreneurs often introduce themselves as relentless forces of nature. They are so focused on displaying their past victories and accomplishments that they often forget about the human aspect—something that makes your brand relatable. No human is error-free, as we have all made mistakes in the past and will probably continue making errors in the future. But, that’s how we learn, evolve and grow to be better than we were yesterday. So, if you’ve made some mistakes in the past and are looking to improve your personal brand, highlight those mistakes and the lessons learned. Don’t present yourself as a deity but as someone whom others can relate to and be inspired by. – Jared Atchison, WPForms

3. Ask Your Network For Feedback

One step an entrepreneur can take to improve their personal brand is to reach out to their network and ask for feedback. By asking for feedback from trusted contacts and colleagues, entrepreneurs can gain valuable insight into their strengths and weaknesses, both professionally and personally. This feedback can help entrepreneurs identify areas for improvement and develop a plan for success. Additionally, by demonstrating their initiative and commitment to personal growth, entrepreneurs can show their network that they are serious about their professional development. This can help to strengthen their personal brand and build relationships with potential partners and investors. – Andrew Munro, AffiliateWP

4. Communicate With Your Team And Other Stakeholders

No mistake should be a roadblock for your entrepreneurial journey. Mistakes are temporary. Don’t let them define your future. A mistake is just a detour on the road to success. By reflecting on what went wrong and identifying the lessons learned, you can use that knowledge to develop a plan for the future and take action to move forward. Primarily, you’ll want to communicate with your team and stakeholders. If the mistake affected your team or business partners, it’s important to be transparent and honest about what happened. This can help build trust and strengthen your relationships. Also, develop a plan for moving forward. This might involve making changes to your processes or seeking additional support or resources. – Kelly Richardson, Infobrandz

5. Gather Plenty Of Data

If someone has made mistakes in the past, it’s likely they didn’t accumulate enough information to make informed decisions. So, this time around, the entrepreneur should conduct thorough research to take action. They should carry out a detailed assessment of their brand, current market trends and the competitive landscape to gather relevant information that facilitates an informed decision. This is an effective approach because data never lies. Making decisions by trusting your gut may backfire, but the decisions backed by research often yield promising results. – Chris Klosowski, Easy Digital Downloads

6. Share Your Story And Your Knowledge In A Book

One way for an entrepreneur to improve their personal brand is by writing a book. This can be a memoir, a how-to guide or a fictional novel. Books are the most impressive way of telling your story and sharing your knowledge with the world. It will give you the opportunity to build your credibility as an expert in your industry. – Kristin Kimberly Marquet, Marquet Media, LLC

7. Be The Person You Wish To Be Seen As

It’s about actions over words. When you’re in a place where you’re confident that your mistakes are behind you, then you can announce your new intentions to the world. Don’t be surprised if you are met with cynicism early on. Continue to be the person you wish to be seen as, and eventually, your brand will catch up to where it needs to be. There is no magic pill for sincerity, but the good news is that people love a redemption story, and if mending your personal brand is yours, you’ll get more than enough encouragement to balance out the hate. Focus on the encouragement and try to be the person you want your brand to be as often as possible. – Tyler Bray, TK Trailer Parts

8. Showcase Your New Achievements

One step an entrepreneur can take to improve their personal brand is to create a blog or website that showcases their work and accomplishments. This is effective because it allows them to control the narrative and shape their public image. By creating a website, they can create content that highlights their strengths and accomplishments while downplaying their past mistakes. Additionally, it gives them an online platform to showcase their ideas and projects, which can help to build their reputation as an expert in their field. – Josh Kohlbach, Wholesale Suite



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“Catastrophic” Consequences of the US Defaulting on Its Debt

“Catastrophic” Consequences of the US Defaulting on Its Debt


The US debt ceiling has been hit; what happens next could send ripples through the economy. But is now the time to panic? Or is there still time to solve this situation? With the US economy relying so heavily on borrowing, the prospect of being unable to pay back its debts could come with a series of “catastrophic” consequences. Higher mortgage rates, a market crash, and an even harsher recession could be on the horizon. But what’s the likelihood of this happening? And are we really on the cusp of a debt debacle?

We brought on Sarah Ewall-Wice, Washington D.C.-based reporter, to help explain what is happening with the US debt limit. Sarah knows that many Americans are used to these types of debt ceiling congressional debates, but most people don’t know the impact these could have on their wealth, investments, and society as a whole. With COVID spending forcing the government to pay for even more, the debt ceiling has reached an almost unimaginable $31 trillion.

Sarah describes what would happen if the US defaulted on its debt, the programs that would be impacted the most, what republicans and democrats both want in their upcoming debates, and what everyday Americans can expect to happen over the coming months. Dave and Sarah also discuss the “trillion dollar coin” method, which could end the US’s debt quite quickly, while simultaneously acting as the most comical government bailout plan to date!

Dave:
Hey, what’s going on everyone? Welcome to On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer, your host. Today, we have a super cool new format for you. We are going to be bringing in a CBS News reporter to talk about an economic issue that has been making a lot of news recently, and that is that the United States just hit its debt limit. It’s this wonky but fascinating situation that’s playing out in Washington right now and could have potential impacts for real estate investors, all sorts of investors and just ordinary Americans. We wanted to help you all understand this issue in-depth so we’ve brought on Sarah Ewall-Wice, who is a reporter in Washington who covers this sort of thing in Washington DC and is going to teach us about the history of the debt limit, what’s going on in Washington right now, and what some of the implications could be for you and other investors. I really hope you like it.
We would love your feedback on this type of show. You can always go on the BiggerPockets forums and tell us about it. Or you can hit me up on Instagram where I’m @thedatadeli and let me know what you think of this show. With that, we’re going to take a quick break and then we’re going to welcome on Sarah to talk about the debt limit. Sarah Ewall-Wice, thank you for joining us On The Market today.

Sarah:
Hello. Good to be here.

Dave:
All right, Sarah, well, let’s start by having you introduce yourself to our audience and explain why you are here talking to us about this exciting, important, and somewhat nerdy topic.

Sarah:
Sure. I am a reporter for CBS News based in Washington DC. I cover both economic policy and also politics. The debt ceiling conversation is one that both hits on the economy big time depending on how long these talks go and also is a huge political talker for folks here in Washington, lawmakers, policymakers, experts all across the board. But we are back at that point where we’re talking about the debt ceiling again because the United States government hit the debt limit. So this becomes a conversation where members of Congress need to act now to avoid calamity.

Dave:
Okay. Well, that is definitely on my mind and many people’s minds. We’re going to get to that, but let’s just start at the beginning. Can you explain to us what the debt ceiling even is?

Sarah:
Sure. The debt ceiling, also referred to as the debt limit, is how much the United States government is allowed to borrow to pay the bills. This is very important to note. This is not how much the United States government is allowed to spend. This is the spending that’s already gone out the door across the board, across the federal government. It was actually first really saw the debt limit, it was back in 1917. There was a law and then it was expanded to cover all government debt right before World War II. But basically, Congress enacted this law and continually, every few years, they have to come back to it as the national debt grows and up that balance so that the United States government could continue paying the bills without going into default, which has never happened before in US history.

Dave:
Over the last couple of years, we are all hearing more and more about the debt ceiling. Has it always been of public interest?

Sarah:
It feels like it’s becoming more frequently and frequently talked about, and that’s because it’s become more of a political battle in the past couple of decades. Essentially, we’ve obviously always had this national debt and we’ve always really had a deficit depending on a few times where they’ve been able to balance the budget, but it does need to be addressed every so often. With that said, lawmakers have started using the debt limit to really come out as a tool to negotiate spending in Washington. We get to the point now every few years where we are hitting this limit and so that is when they come to the table and some lawmakers say, “Well, we need to cut spending.” Others say, “We just need to raise the national debt.” But the idea is is we get to this crisis point where it really needs to be addressed and then we kick it down, the can down the road rather than addressing the actual issue. And I say we, talking about Congress, rather than addressing the actual issue, which is how much the United States government is spending.
You keep in mind, the United States government has always really been borrowing to pay the bills. It comes down to tying the debt limit to the budget as they go, whereas these are two separate conversations that aren’t happening together. Then we get to this point where there’s a real freak out and a lot of concerns across the economy about what this means if the US stops paying the bills or is unable to pay the bills. So it’s become more frequent. It’s been used more of a tool lately. We saw in 2011, Republicans use this in negotiations with the Obama administration, and now we’re back here with the Biden administration, Republicans in a showdown over the exact same issue over a decade later.

Dave:
I do want to get into current events in just a minute here, but I just want to make clear. From my understanding, the debt limit has been raised dozens of times over the last couple of decades. The fact that it’s getting raised is not actually new. It’s just the political climate about it has changed a bit.

Sarah:
Yes. The debt limit has been raised dozens of times, many times in the past two decades. Just thinking back, we feel like we’ve had this conversation recently. It was raised in 2021, in December 2021. We had to reach a deal. Of course, it was raised or suspended three times under President Trump while he was in office over four years. So it’s an ongoing conversation. It’s raised multiple times in the Obama administration. Every time there’s this larger growing debt, they come back and they look at it and they move forward and they either raise or suspend it. Suspending it means they just kick the can down the road and it kicks back in later with the number at a higher level than it was when they suspended it.

Dave:
Okay. That makes sense. Obviously, we know during COVID, there was a lot of spending, but has the debt increased recently faster than it has historically?

Sarah:
I think it’s tricky really to say whose debt it is specifically. I think you can absolutely say during the coronavirus pandemic, the government, both under President Trump and then under President Biden, put out a lot of spending really to help save the economy from tanking, and that has added to it much more rapidly in the past few years. I would avoid saying, well, who’s added more to the debt, because it really is hard to tell because there’s been this accumulation of debt for so many decades in the United States. It’s tricky, but yes, I would say the coronavirus pandemic definitely did not help in speeding up the rising debt.

Dave:
Okay, great. You mentioned something earlier, which is that we have hit the debt limit. What does that mean?

Sarah:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders a little over a week ago, around January 19th. She said, “Hey, we’re starting to use these measures to move around money because we’ve hit the limit,” the limit being $31.4 trillion. That was the decide upon number back when they negotiated this last time in 2021. So they’ve hit that limit and now the Treasury Department is moving around funds to keep paying the bills. They call them extraordinary measures. It’s funny because these are not extraordinary anymore. We’ve used them many times starting in 1985 and onwards. We’ve heard it time and time again, but they’re so-called extraordinary measures still. Essentially, it means moving around money to keep paying the bills. But she did say that essentially, the ability to pay the bills would run out as early as June. There’s a lot of uncertainty because we do have revenue coming in, and as revenue comes in, the Treasury puts it out and pays the bills and is able to move things around. Starting in June, she says that could completely run out.
When it runs out and the United States government is unable to pay the bills, it’s the so-called X date. As we get closer to that timeframe, more policy experts will start to come out with their estimates on exactly what that date is. The Treasury Department will get a better idea of exactly what that date is. But when that date hits, the United States unable to pay its bills, and that is when the United States could go into default for the first time. That is where the real uncertainty happens. We’re in this period of this needs to be addressed and it’s a pressing issue, but we are not really sounding the red flags and the alarms aren’t going off at this stage. But of course, you know that Congress doesn’t do anything quickly, and so that is why it’s a pressing issue now rather than waiting till the last possible minute. Even if they reach a deal at the last possible minute, there could be repercussions.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. Let me just summarize that by saying basically, you’re saying that we have technically hit the limit and the implications in the long term are that if we can’t borrow more money, we can’t pay our obligations. As you said, the debt that we are financing is for spending that has already been approved.

Sarah:
Exactly.

Dave:
So that is the concern. But because the Treasury has some accounting tricks up their sleeves, they can continue to pay the debts of the United States even though we have technically hit the limit. Now, I think we were both about to just go to an idea that basically, I think it was 2011 where there was a negotiation over the debt ceiling and the United States did not default, but there were repercussions for it. Is that correct?

Sarah:
That is correct. There was a last-minute deal that was reached, and this was something that was negotiated between the Obama administration and House Republicans, which is a similar makeup to what we have now, where the White House is a Democratic president, but the House is run by Republicans. We have a Democratic senate currently. But they had to reach a deal and it came down to the wire where they were negotiating spending cuts to make this happen. Even though they were able to reach a deal, leading up to it, there was so much uncertainty that the stock market took a plunge and the US credit score or excuse me, credit rating was downgraded by S&P. So that had repercussions. There’s estimates that cost the US economy about $20 billion over a decade, which is one estimate that was done, but the S&P dropped about 6% leading up to that.
They were able to reach that deal, and we avoided a greater financial catastrophe, but that just goes to show that even leading up to this, as the clock ticks down to that so-called X date, or in this case, sometime in June as we’re seeing it, there are challenges and uncertainties that could lead to problems in the economy.

Dave:
That is something I think real estate investors in our audience will understand. Basically, what happened is that the credit worthiness of the United States was downgraded by credit rating agencies. When that happens, the debt, usually the person whose credit is downgraded has to pay more to get loans in the future. It’s a similar to taking out a real estate mortgage. If you have worse credit, you are going to pay a higher interest rate. What happened in 2011 is that the US basically became less creditworthy and had to pay a higher interest rate among other things and economic repercussions. That seems like just the tip of the iceberg. That is the tip of the iceberg of things that could happen if the United States were to actually default on its debt. Can you tell us a little bit more about what the repercussions could be if not just the debt ceiling has reached because we have done that, but the United States is unable to meet its obligations?

Sarah:
Yes. If the United States defaults, we started to get into it, this could be a catastrophe for the stock markets. We could see the stocks plunge across the board, not just the United States, but we’re looking at this from a global scale because the United States really sets the tone for the rest of the world. With that said, when you mentioned it, being able to borrow, this would boost interest rates on borrowing for the United States moving forward and that would cost the United States billions more on top of the trillions it already owes when it goes to pay its bills in the future. So that is one thing. The United States government, they’re supposed to be the most confident. It’s supposed to be risk-free investments. If it’s no longer risk-free and we’re facing all these challenges, what does that mean for everything else?
So that also has further waves or repercussions when it comes to how much Americans are borrowing because that boosts interest rates. When you’re going to get a mortgage, when you’re going to pay a car loan, now you want to buy a car, when you’re paying for credit card bills, your interest will go up across the board and this is on top of the already challenging time power in where we know inflation is high and the Fed is boosting interest rates. We’ve seen record high credit card interest rates already. So those are different things that are happening. At the same time, we have the repercussions that happen in the government itself because the government pays billions of dollars on a monthly basis to different parties across the board. Different groups of Americans receive different things. So for instance, if the United States is unable to meet its debt obligations, it will be unable to pay veterans benefits, for one thing.
Social security payments, one of the most important things for our senior citizens, those could be delayed, not go out in time when many people need those payments and rely on those payments. There’s also the things like the SNAPs program, formerly Stamp, so food benefits for low-income Americans. Different types of benefits that people rely on are going to stop and be delayed should we reach that point. The military would go unpaid, of course. We just hope they just continue working on the job. But that’s the reality and that has repercussions in the economy me because when they are getting the money, guess where that money’s going? It’s going out to businesses when they go and buy things. It’s going out for housing. It’s going out and it has this long ripple effect across other sectors of the United States coming from the government. So that is important to keep in mind. This won’t just impact those who rely on government payments, it’s anyone who’s relied on people who get any kind of government payment. Who knows really where this could go, but all in all, it’d be really, really bad.

Dave:
Yeah. That’s a question no one wants to answer. Yeah, no one wants to know what happens if the United States defaults on its debt. I think people on both sides of the aisle have basically said, we cannot default on our debt. But it does seem that given the importance of paying our debts, that that is basically why it’s being used as leverage for this broader conversation about spending and fiscal policy in the US.

Sarah:
That’s exactly right. It’s funny because it’s being used as a negotiation tool in a way where it’s really something that there should be no conversations about even going there. It’s just too risky to even consider, but it’s been tied into this political battle here in Washington that happens over and over again, when the reality is is lawmakers are setting budgets and paying for things and putting money out the door and borrowing to do it regularly anyway on both sides of the aisle. They have to come up with a budget every year, every couple of months, depending on how they go about it and that spending is happening anyway. So this just becomes one tool that has really brought people to the table, but in a way that could be really brutal and catastrophic for all entities. It’s a poor way of looking at the situation, but it’s the way that it’s come about for multiple scenario or multiple years now in recent decades.

Dave:
Yeah. It seems like basically, Congress has used this as a forcing function to talk about spending, even though it sounds like they’re not necessarily even related. The spending and what the Congress and the government is spending on is done during appropriations. That’s when they are spending money, but this is basically just a check mark to say, yeah, we will actually send you a check, basically for all those things we paid. So that’s interesting, but I think a lot of people feel that this is an important conversation to be had and I guess the debt ceiling somehow has evolved as the time when we talk about this. I’m just curious. You said House Republicans are negotiating with the White House. What is it that they’re hoping for and what are they asking for in exchange for raising the debt limit? That’s basically the conversation. They want reduction of spending in exchange for approving an increased debt limit ceiling.

Sarah:
This is the trick here. I should say the Republicans say they want to negotiate. We aren’t even at the point where they actually are negotiating yet. Just to be clear, there’s been a standoff on the start point of talks. I’ll talk about it in terms of the press office has said, the White House is not going to negotiate. This is not something they can negotiate on. This is a risk that will not be addressed and they need to raise the debt limit point blank. They’ve done it before under Republican presidents, why are they holding this hostage now? That is the White House messaging essentially on this. At the same time in Congress, Republicans are saying they absolutely need to negotiate on this and they also need to negotiate it in terms of spending cuts. They’re not actually saying specifically they want to see cut.
Democrats will point at them. Democrats in Congress point at them and say, “Well, they’re looking at Social Security and they’re looking at Medicare.” Some Republicans are in fact bringing up those two entitlement programs as a part of this conversation, but other Republicans are saying, “Well, no, we need to cut spending across the board.” So there’s really a standoff right now specifically on, well, what’s the plan? Who’s going to decide the plan? Because that’s where you can then go and point fingers depending on who actually comes forward with that plan and say, well, they wanted to cut this or that. So it’s still at the point where both sides haven’t taken a seat at the table and are asking the other side to sit down first and lay out a map of what they want to see. But that is where we’re at, where the White House wants it to raise the debt ceiling, we’ll talk about spending, but we’re not going to do it in this conversation. This is not where we’ll negotiate at this point in time.
And Republicans are saying, “Well, no. We have to negotiate spending at this point in time to address the debt ceiling and the debt limit.” So that’s where it’s at. I think in the coming months, coming weeks, really, we’ll get more information on where there could be places where there is a path to a compromise, but right now, it’s really a lot of posturing and not a lot of sit-down, hard conversations being had. There will be, I’m sure, other proposals about how to go about addressing this so we’re not in this situation again in two years moving forward between now and June, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Dave:
I’m guessing that you, being a reporter in Washington, you can describe a lot of things you cover as posturing.

Sarah:
Oh, most of it is posturing, I will say, and then suddenly something happens usually.

Dave:
Yeah. It just seems like what’s going to happen, is both sides are talking at each other, but there’s not really a conversation going on right now. What do you think happens? You said there’s posturing, but what do you think happens over the next couple of months? Is there going to be progress? Are the people like me who look at this very anxiously going to be worried for the next several months or do you think there’ll be steady progress towards a resolution?

Sarah:
I think people are going to remain anxious for a little bit of time. I will say, I think the White House and Republican congressional leaders are supposed to meet and start these conversations or just start a conversation in general. We are in a new Congress in the coming days and months. So that is a starting point. It’ll go from there. Every time this happens, there’s a standoff and at some point, somebody blinks. We felt that in 2021, where there was a standoff specifically in the Senate because they needed 60 votes in the Senate and that wasn’t happening. Then finally, essentially, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell blinked, and in that instance, they were able to use just Democrats to raise the debt limit. So that’s going to be one of those situations where one side does have to blink. There are other ideas being floated out there about how this could go about where it doesn’t happen in this way moving forward.
I don’t know if they can reach any meaningful way to address this differently between now and June, but that is something that I think there’ll be another conversation so that we aren’t just kicking the can down the road. There will be a separate group. But the makeup of this Congress is different than it has been in the past and that’s why there’s different uncertainty surrounding this issue. In 2021, they needed to get Republicans in the Senate to step down so that they could pass it, but it was a Democratic-controlled Senate House and White House, so they were able to reach that deal. This time, there’s such a small majority of Republicans in the House that it’s harder to pass anything in the House, and there’s a group of very hard-line Republicans that are simply saying, “We will not vote on this.” So it comes down to they need to reach a compromise.
We’ve spoken to some Democratic congressmen who’ve said it’ll end up being a group of Republicans and a lot of Democrats who come and address this together to pass something in the House. So the makeup of how the House is made up has made this uncertain in a different way. Then of course, it comes down to what will the relationship really be between the White House and Speaker McCarthy and Congressional Republican leaders as they start to have these conversations, because like I said, we had a new Congress that came in in January.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s very interesting. It seems like one of the first tests of the relationship between the new Congress, the White House, and that everything that’s going on happening at a crucial economic period. We’ll have to see what happens, but thank you for explaining this to us. One of the options I’ve heard about, I really don’t understand this, have you heard of the trillion-dollar coin?

Sarah:
Oh, yes. I love this.

Dave:
What is that? I don’t get it.

Sarah:
The idea is there is a law in the books from 1997, which essentially says that the Treasury Department can mint a coin of absolutely any denomination. This has been floated by a former director of the mint. It’s been called for by some lawmakers, I believe more recently from some Democratic lawmakers. The idea is the Treasury could simply mint a trillion-dollar coin. It could be taken and that could be used to address the national debt.

Dave:
Oh, wait, so is that basically just money printing though, but it’s-

Sarah:
Pretty much. Well, the Fed has to step in and accept this.

Dave:
Okay.

Sarah:
So that’s one uncertainty. I can say point blank that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been asked about this and she’s called it a gimmick, so not really onboard. So it can toss this out the window in reality, though it comes up every couple of years when we talk about the debt ceiling. She’s also said this would be one of those things where you’re overriding the independence of the Fed. So that’s part of it where it just comes down to, okay, so we are not going to get the Treasury secretary to say yes to this. Then at the other side of this is, well, if the US can simply mint a coin of any denomination, what does that mean for the markets moving forward and any future situation the United States might be in, period?

Dave:
Yeah, that seems like a terrible idea. Okay.

Sarah:
So if it is something that’s okay, it’s out there, it might be doable. It’s never been tried before.

Dave:
Oh, I get it. So it’s basically saying that normally, the Fed controls monetary policy. Just for everyone listening, when we talk about Congress and spending by the government, that is fiscal policy. When we’re talking about how much money is in circulation, federal funds rate, stuff we talk about a lot on this show, that is called monetary policy. Usually, the Fed controls money printing, that sort of stuff. So what you’re saying though is there’s basically a loophole where the Treasury, which is part of the executive branch, I don’t even know,-

Sarah:
Yes.

Dave:
Executive branch?

Sarah:
It’s the executive branch under, yes.

Dave:
Okay. So it’s part of the executive branch. Could get through a loophole, print a trillion-dollar coin. Glad to hear that’s not going to happen, but man, they would’ve to have a cool design. I feel like a trillion-dollar coin would have to look pretty cool.

Sarah:
That would be fantastic. I should add the specifics on this is that it has to be platinum.

Dave:
Ooh.

Sarah:
That is also a part of this rule,

Dave:
Baller. Okay.

Sarah:
So yes, a coin of any denomination, but it must be platinum and it must be cool-looking, I’m sure.

Dave:
Yes. Wow.

Sarah:
And the Treasury Secretary has been like, not going to happen.

Dave:
What weird law was like, yeah, you could print anything as long as it’s platinum?

Sarah:
I think it had to do with coin collectors and valuation on that front. That’s a really wonky random loophole and a really random law that just materialized as this debate moved on and now we have lawmakers who are like, that sounds like a potential way to address this ongoing crisis that we face every few years. But no one’s tried it. I think the folks, of course, the Treasury secretary also used to be the chair of the Federal Reserves, Secretary Yellen, so she’s gone mm-mm.

Dave:
Okay. All right. Well, we won’t know what happened, but glad to hear that a trillion-dollar coin is not one of the realistic options.

Sarah:
Not yet. We’ll see where we go in a couple of months, but I’m holding off on that for now.

Dave:
Okay. Well, thank you, Sarah. This has been super helpful. Is there anything else you think our listeners should know about the debt ceiling as it pertains to investors or just everyday Americans?

Sarah:
I think right now, it’s one of those conversations where the bigger problem will need to be addressed in how we go about spending moving forward, but that doesn’t seem to be something that is addressed when we get to this debt limit crisis and counting down the clock to the so-called X date. So big picture, I think there will be conversations about this, about how the US is spending money. But the other aspect of this, I think, is people will yawn when they hear about this now because it’s happened so many times, and it shouldn’t be something that people panic about at this moment. I really don’t think it is at the stage where there should be the panic, but it is a pressing issue and it’s one that will continually to become more and more dire as we get into the coming months. So that is where, take a deep breath now. Stay calm. Don’t change up your pattern so much yet in terms of how you’re spending or your investing at this stage.
I don’t think anyone, when we see these warnings coming out of the White House or Treasury secretary’s office specifically, or Congress are like, “Ooh, need to sell off immediately.” That’s not where we’re at right now, but it is something to keep an eye on moving forward. Everyone says we absolutely cannot default on our debt. Let’s see if they hold that up in Congress and keep on playing a game of chicken moving forward.

Dave:
All right. Well, thank you. This has been super helpful. I have learned a lot. I really appreciate your expertise on this. If people want to follow you and your reporting, where can they learn more about you?

Sarah:
Sure. Well, follow our reporting at CBS News at cbsnews.com, your local stations, our national news. We have the morning show and evening news as well. Then of course, you can always find me on social media @ewallwice. It’s my last name, E-W-A-L-L-W-I-C-E, on both Twitter and Instagram.

Dave:
All right. Thanks again, Sarah.

Sarah:
Thank you.

Dave:
Big thanks to Sarah for joining us for this episode. I learned a ton from this. I learned that I don’t need to be anxious about this just yet, and that we have a couple of months. Even though we had hit the debt limit, the US is still paying its obligations and there is time for Congress to figure this out. I would love to know what you all think about this type of episode. We’re trying something new just to help you stay on top of the important things that impact investors and ordinary Americans related to the economy. This is an important issue, and hopefully you learn something. You can always hit me up on Instagram where I’m @thedatadeli. You can find me on BiggerPockets and send that feedback as well.
Thank you all so much for listening. We’ll see you next time for On The Market. On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer, and Kailyn Bennett, produced by Kailyn Bennett, editing by Joel Esparza and Onyx Media, researched by Pooja Jindal, and a big thanks to the entire BiggerPockets team. The content on the show On The Market are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions, and investment strategies.

 

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