David:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show.
What’s going on, everyone? It’s David Greene, your host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast, the number one real estate podcast where we arm you with the information that you need to start building long-term wealth through real estate today. As always, on Seeing Greene, we are answering questions from you, our listeners.

Rob:
Yeah, today we’re going to get into questions like, when is house hacking no longer a smart strategy? How should property taxes factor into your market analysis? And how do you know to sell a property even if it’s cash flowing? And even if you love it, David?

David:
And most importantly, if you want a chance to ask your question, please go to biggerpockets.com/David. The link is in the description. And if you have a burning real estate question, pause this podcast, send me your question and then jump right back in.

Rob:
And before we jump into this episode, a quick tip. Are you doing something you haven’t heard on this podcast before? Well, we want to hear your tips and tricks. Apply to be a guest on our show over at biggerpockets.com/guest. People ask me this all the time, it’s very easy to remember, biggerpockets.com/guest. Fill out a form. And if you’re a fit for the show, you will get to share the mic with me and David Greene.

David:
We hope to see you there. All right, let’s get into this thing. Our first question comes from Gabriel in Greenville, South Carolina.

Gabriel:
Hey David, my name is Gabe. I’m located in the Greenville, South Carolina market, and I’m a beginner investor. I’m looking for my first deal, really want to do a house hack, but I have a question about when you draw the line as to say house hacking is no longer a good strategy. I know you mentioned all the time that house hacking is mainly a savings strategy where you try to get your largest expense, your mortgage payment covered by rent from tenants. But in my area, it seems like most of the properties I look at, the rent from your tenant, while you’re house hacking, would probably only cover about 50 to 60% of the mortgage payment. So in that situation, do you think it’s still a good idea to invest in a house hack or do you think I should pursue a different option such as a live and flip? I’m pretty bullish about it. I still want to do it, but just want to know what your thoughts are. Thanks.

David:
All right, good question. Gabriel speaking for the masses here. I think there’s a lot of people that are thinking the same thing. I can answer this one somewhat succinctly. My thought would be is 50 to 60% of the mortgage less expensive than if you had to pay all the mortgage or all the rent. If so, you’re winning and you own a home and you’re getting tax benefits and you get future appreciation. And when the rents go up, that 50 to 60 slowly becomes 60 to 70, 70 to 80 and so forth. Rob, what say you?

Rob:
Yeah, I guess there is this idea, this misconception that you have to pay all of your mortgage and you have to subsidize your entire mortgage with house hacking. That’s just a really nice bonus on the top, right? The first house hack I ever did, I got 400 bucks a month for my buddy. My mortgage was 1,100 bucks, so that meant out of pocket I was paying $700 a month, which was still less than 1,100 bucks a month or whatever my mortgage was, right? So at the end of the day, look, as much as I want you to subsidize all of it, let’s not get spoiled here. It is a gift to have a lower mortgage payment. And if it gets you into ownership a little bit faster and makes it cheaper to own than it would be to go out and rent to property, I think it’s always fine to house hack.

David:
Yeah. And I would say if you’re only seeing 50 to 60% of the mortgage covered, are you looking at the wrong houses? Are you just looking at a regular house that’s not an investment property and you’re saying, “Well, a three-bedroom, two-bathroom, if I rent out two of the bedrooms, I’ll make this much money,” but you should be looking for a five-bedroom or you should be looking for a triplex or you should be looking for a house with a basement and the main house and an ADU? The property itself makes a very big difference when you’re trying to generate income. The floor plan, the asset itself makes a difference. I mean, Rob, is this a mistake that you think people may be making where they’re looking at the wrong house and saying house hacking doesn’t work?

Rob:
Honestly, I really just think the mistake is in the mindset of how much you should subsidize. I think ultimately the way I look at it is if I were going to go out and rent a place and it’s going to cost me 1,500 bucks, but I get the opportunity to go buy a place and it’s going to cost me, let’s say 17,00 or $1,800 a month, if house hacking gets that monthly price to be less than what I would be paying renting, then it’s always a viable solution for me.

David:
The idea of house hacking is to cut into your housing expense. Now, if you can live for free, if you can make money, that’s amazing. We would never say don’t do it. But the better way to look at this is it better to keep paying rent and not own a home? Or is it better to save money on your housing allowance and own a home? And that’s what we’re talking about. And the advice that I often give is just when you’re looking for the area that you’re going to house hack in, look for a house itself that either has more bedrooms or more units. Look for ways you can bring in more income on the house instead of just saving the expense by buying a cheaper house.

Rob:
Good question, Gabriel.

David:
Thank you, Gabe.
All right, moving into Jeff from Austin. He says, “What role should property tax play in determining where to invest?” Oh, this is good. I’m glad I got you here for this one, Rob. “For example, in Texas, they have a fairly high tax rate because there’s no estate income tax. Does that make the investment bar higher in Texas than in another state that has a lower rate? Wouldn’t it in theory change the equation when analyzing for cash flow?”
Oh, I love this. Thank you, Jeff. This is a case of the clearly over-analyzing Alfred, which I think we’ve all been there. I started off my career I think in the same kind of thought. So basically, because property taxes are higher in some states than other, should you have a higher expectation on the 1% rule or someone else when look at properties? What do you think, Rob?

Rob:
I wouldn’t necessarily a higher expectation. It’s just, yeah, does it fit the 1% rule if that’s your metric, if that’s your golden metric? And it just means it’ll be harder in some of these areas, but I would imagine that when that’s the case, if property taxes are higher, then my assumption here is that rents would probably be higher to match the landlord. Landlords will charge more because they pay more in property taxes and thus rents might stay abreast with that, with property taxes. What do you think?

David:
Never heard you say abreast on this podcast before. I’m still-

Rob:
I was trying to work it in when I can.

David:
Yeah, I’m still trying to acclimate to that. Yeah, this is not that complicated. When you’re running numbers in Texas if you’re going to invest there, you just use a higher number for the property taxes to see if the rental is going to work.
Here’s something I’ve learned about things like higher property taxes. Life is like this. It is very easy to focus on the negative and not think about the positive that comes with the negative, right? So for example, when it comes to investing in Hawaii, they have HOAs in most of the condos. I’ve got a couple condos out here, that’s where I am right now in Hawaii, and everyone says, “Ooh, I don’t want to invest in somewhere where there’s HOAs. That’s an extra expense.” But property taxes are insanely low in Hawaii, so it almost balances out. The condo fees are about the difference of what property taxes would be in most properties. So it kind of breaks even.
In Texas, yes, you have higher property taxes because they don’t have a state income tax, so it’s harder for an out-of-state investor to make that work. However, that means more people move to Texas. As more people move to Texas, rents go up. So in five years or 10 years later, your property value and your rents have increased substantially because it’s such a desirable area that people want to move to because there’s no state income tax. Now, the flip side is you have higher property taxes, so you just deal with it. I want to encourage everyone, don’t throw something away the minute you hear something that makes it bad or hard without asking the question of, “Well, how would that also benefit me?” You really want to weigh the two together. Robbie, it looks like you’re deep in thought over there. I like this.

Rob:
Well, yeah, it’s all relative. In Florida, you would have higher insurance costs, so that wouldn’t necessarily be a reason to not get into the Florida market. You would just have to underwrite four higher insurance costs, right?

David:
Yep.

Rob:
That might be not the best example because those can always increase, but I will say, man, those Texas property taxes do bite you in the booty, man. Houses in California, when I would underwrite them, always work better than in Texas because the property taxes here are crazy, man.

David:
Yeah. So then you say, “Should I invest in California?” Well, it’s wildly competitive. There’s 10 offers on every single house, so I don’t want to deal with that. But what does that do? That drives the price of homes up all the time. So then you make a bunch of money if you own in California for a long time.
Every market is going to have these ups and downs. So Jeff, the idea is you find the strategy that works in that market. And because I’ve been around long enough, I’ve seen, if you’re going to invest somewhere that does not have appreciation, you have to buy at a better price. You have to buy equity. Because you’re not going to get what I call market appreciation equity. If you buy in California, you buy in Florida, you buy in Texas, 10 years later, it’s most likely gone up quite a bit. If you buy in Indiana, if you buy in Kansas, it’s probably going to more or less be the same so you got to make sure you get in for a better price when you go. There are strategies that work in all these markets. You just can’t cross collateralize them. You can’t take the, “I want a huge discount” strategy and apply it to an area that’s also going to have massive growth. You’re not going to walk into Miami right now and get it at 70% of ARV like you might if it’s an area that doesn’t have as many buyers.

Rob:
Great question, Jeff.

David:
All right, our next question is also from a Jeff in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Jeff:
My name is Jeff Mileback. And thank you for taking my sell or hold question. I have 450K in equity on a great property. It’s a low interest cash flow and I love it, but the equity sits there. I’m also in contract on a property in a good location that costs 450. So, do I sell the great property and buy the new property? This will increase my cashflow about 1,000. It’ll sell an asset I love and it’ll trigger a 75K tax bill. Or do I sell the great property and 1031 exchange it into two new properties? This will increase my cashflow a little, but exchange a great property for two good unknowns. Or 3, keep the great property and buy just the one new property. This will decrease my cashflow by 800, yet it’ll keep a property I love and add a new one I believe in? I think do 3, but I feel fear because it hits my cashflow. Any other ideas?

Rob:
That’s a good question. Okay, so I guess scenario 1 is sell the great property, buy a new property and he’s going to trigger a tax event there. 2, sell the great property, 1031 into two. So-so properties that are good but he doesn’t really know. And then 3, just keep the great property that he has and just buy the one new property. I would say if you really love a property, you should hold onto it, right? It’s always a bummer when you let go of a property that you really like. It’s never a bummer to let go of properties that you don’t like, right? You’re usually pretty happy about that. But the pain is equal on both sides. And so if you have a lot of heart for a property and you really like it, then I would keep it because you probably will kick yourself for a long time that you sold something that you really liked, especially considering that selling it is not really going to increase your cashflow substantially. I really don’t see a reason to do that.

David:
It’s hard without knowing more of the goals here. Because if you’re trying to go big, it usually makes sense to buy more properties. But the downside of going big is it could put you back. Sometimes it takes longer to get those properties up and running. Sometimes those properties don’t do as well as the one that you had and you were like, “Man, I wanted to increase my cashflow and increase my net worth, but I’ve decreased my cashflow.” And then you got to think about the economy that we’re in, the market itself, right? If rates tomorrow went really low again, it would look really smart to buy more properties because the value of them would likely go up. If rates keep going up and we slip into a recession, because from what I’ve been hearing, Americans are starting to run out of reserves and their debt is starting to go higher and higher and higher, this would look really bad.
So there isn’t a clear cut answer because we don’t know about the environment that we’re investing into, which makes me think we want to kind of play it right down the middle. I would probably be leaning towards keep the property you have, use the money you have to buy the next property. And that will cut into your cashflow, but it’s the safest way that I can think about maintaining value without risking all the cash flow. If you sell, you buy two new ones, you don’t know how those ones are going to work out. You might find yourself with nothing. Any flaws in that logic, Rob?

Rob:
Mm-mm. No, I agree with you.

David:
Yeah. And I think to factor into our decision-making here, it is work to get a property stabilized, right? You don’t always think about it, especially if it’s a short-term rental, or in this case if it’s like several units over one property. You don’t just buy it and the money comes in. You buy it, you got to make some repairs, you got to get to know the tenants, you put new management in place. It takes a while for things to settle out. So it’s a shame once you’ve got it sort of smooth rolling to just sell it to someone else who buys it and gets to enjoy all that work you put in and then have to start all the way over at scratch doing the same thing with new properties.

Rob:
Yeah. So one little question I have is, why would buying the new property, if he keeps this property, why would that affect his cash flow?

David:
Because I think the new property he buys, he’s assuming isn’t going to cash flow. It’s going to take him a while to get it back up.

Rob:
Oh, I see. I see. So the plan is for it to cash flow. It’s just the stabilization is unclear at the moment.

David:
Yeah. And I know what you’re thinking Rob, is like, “Why would you buy anything that doesn’t cash flow?”? Which is, that should probably go into this conversation. Like, why would you buy a property if it’s not going to cash flow? Unless he has a plan, there’s like a ramp up period. So assuming that these are multifamily properties or these are properties that are like commercially operated, it can take a while to stabilize them and get them turned around.

Rob:
Yeah. So moral of the story, I think hold onto a great property that you really like. And I think scenario 3, keep the property, buy the new property and play the stabilization game.

David:
Yeah. And if you’re worried about losing cash flow on the new property, just don’t buy something that doesn’t cash flow right off the bat. Just keep waiting. And if we continue down the road we’re headed, you’re going to see more and more people dumping their properties on the market when they realize that, “Hey, this didn’t work out like I thought it would.” All right, good question there. Thank you for that Jeff.
All right. If you have questions that you think that I could help answer, remember, you can submit your questions, and we sure hope you do, at biggerpockets.com/david. We have more listener questions coming for you shortly about when to pay off your HELOC and recommendations for long distance investing from two long distance investors ourselves, Rob and I.
But before we get to that, a few comments and reviews from fellow BiggerPockets listeners. All right. The first one comes from Captain Christian, “Superb and relevant content.” This is an Apple Podcast review. “Huge fan of the podcast. I listened to it on double speed and it makes you guys sound like you are incredibly witty and quick.” So that’s an added bonus for you. Very nice.

Rob:
I think that’s a nice thing.

David:
Yeah. I just need to figure out how to do that in real life.

Rob:
We’ll just talk faster.

David:
Like the Micro machines guy? “I love the content, the real life application of the demonstrate. You have to ask specific questions about the location, the prices, about that [inaudible 00:15:07] deals and how people are putting them together. This market requires tenacity and creativity and I’m glad you’re able to pivot and show your audience how this market is still absolutely wide open for serious investors.”
Captain Christian, what a clutch review. Very well said, well-spoken. This seems like a brilliant person. What do you think, Rob?

Rob:
Yeah, nice guy. Nice guy. Can I read the second review here? It’s also a five star review.

David:
Yeah.

Rob:
From our friend Boatguy545, and he says, “Too good to be free. Excellent source of real estate knowledge. No period.” Meaning there’s more that he wants to say, but he’s restrained. He’s a man of few words and he just wants to give us a quick little compliment in and out. We appreciate you Boatguy545.

David:
Remember everyone, there’s even more free content at biggerpockets.com, so go check it out. There’s the best forums in the world of real estate investing. There are blogs, there’s an agent finder tool, there’s calculators you can use to analyze properties, all kinds of stuff to help you build that dream portfolio.
All right, moving into the YouTube comments from episode 840 from Travis Andres. “This is great, guys. I love how you both talk out the deal and possible scenarios. It really helps in seeing the thought process of how to come up with potential solutions.”
Yeah, that’s the harder part, right? Because we could give our advice, but then you have to remember to go back and say, “ell, here is what I was thinking when I gave that advice” so that you can take our logic and apply it to the situations that you come across with your own investing because not everyone’s going to have the exact same question. So thank you, Travis, for acknowledging that.
Remember everyone that we love and we appreciate all of your feedback, so please keep it coming. And remember to comment and subscribe to the BiggerPockets YouTube page. Also, if you’re listening in your podcast app, take some time to give us an honest rating and review. Those help us a ton. Let’s move on to the next question.

Rob:
Travis in Michigan writes, “Late in 2021, I use a HELOC, a home equity line of credit, as the down payment on a duplex in Michigan. The duplex was turned key but has the potential to add a couple of bedrooms in the future. Currently, it is fully rented, so we’ll probably add rooms at the next turnover. My question is, should I be working to repay the HELOC or should I wait? The HELOC is a ten-year interest-only draw period currently in year two. And after 10 years, the loan locks an interest rate and is amortized over 15 years with no future draws. The rate is variable and currently at 4.5%. The monthly payment on the $40,000 that I’ve borrowed is $125. I have about $10,000 of cash reserves that I keep for all three of my properties for vacancy CapEx and repairs. The property cash flows even after the HELOC payment. So I’ve been paying $500 a month to knock out the principal balance. But because it’s a lower rate than I could refinance at today, I’m not likely to do that.”
“Should I be putting that 8K in reserves against the HELOC? The HELOC is completely liquid. I can just borrow it back out if I needed a repair or even vacancy. For some reason, the cash in the account feels safer than the HELOC debit card. Should I even be paying the extra principle every month? Am I thinking about this wrong? Appreciate all the advice. Rob, you’re my favorite guy in the world.”
Oh, that was very nice, Travis. All right, that was a lot, but I think the gist of the question is he got a HELOC, it’s at a variable interest rate, it’s 4.5%. He’s got eight years before that starts to change and fluctuate. Should he pay it off sooner than that?

David:
Well, the 4.5 rate surprised me. I thought it’d be much higher than that. That’s a very low rate.

Rob:
Yeah, but variable, wouldn’t that imply that it jumps around? Or is he saying it’s variable after the 10 years?

David:
No, it jumps around, but it’s currently… Usually they only jump once a year and sometimes they can only jump by one point a year. So he probably got it at 3.5%. It’s been bumped up to 4.5%. Next year it could be 5.5%. It could go up to usually a percent every year. A lot of these adjustable rates are not completely adjustable. There’s limits of how much they can adjust up or down. And he says after 10 years of having the HELOC open, it basically turns into an amortized loan. That’s a normal thing that a lot of HELOCs will do.

Rob:
Got it.

David:
They don’t want make it a balloon payment that the whole thing is due. It just turns into a loan that’s paid back over a 15-year period that’s amortized. So he doesn’t have a whole lot of pressure that this thing needs to be paid back. The loan balance isn’t huge and it’s at a low rate. In this case, I’m probably okay to build up those reserves, because 10K really could be a little bit bigger.

Rob:
Yeah, I would say that. I mean, I think I agree, David. I mean really at the end of the day he’s paying $125 a month on this HELOC. That’s not a lot. If he told me that he was paying $2,000 a month and he only makes $25,000 a year and most of his money goes to this HELOC, I’d be like, “Get out of that if you can, if there’s a way.” But considering it seems to be really insignificant to his overall cash flow and return in my guess here, then I would say I’d probably just ride that one for as long as you can have a low interest rate.

David:
Yeah. And I like the idea of adding the bedrooms after the turn when the current tenants are gone to be able to increase different ways you can rent it out.. Hopefully rent it out by the room because you’ll probably make more money here. I think you’re probably overthinking it a little bit, Travis, but that’s okay. That’s what we’re here for. If something goes wrong, it’s nice to have that money in the account that can get you through it. I’d like to see you with 30,000 instead of 10,000, so maybe make that one of your goals for 2024, Travis, how to build up that savings account. Get after it, brother.
All right, our next video is coming from Chase who’s looking to buy in Alabama.

Chase:
Hey David, my name’s Chase. Thank you for all that you do at the BiggerPockets podcast and BiggerPockets network. I’ve been listening for the last couple months and learned a ton, so thanks for all that you do. So I have about $50,000 to work with and I’m new to real estate investing. My goal is not to become a professional real estate investor, neither full-time. I currently live abroad, planning to stay here, but I would like to get a rental property or two. Now, I’m looking at a suburb in Southeast Alabama. It’s a growing place, but a very small market nonetheless.
My question for you is, with the numbers I’m running, I could get a 30-year mortgage on one property that would generate about $250 a month in cash flow. The same property would be about -100, -$150 a month on a 15-year mortgage. Now, since I know my limits and I don’t plan to be a professional real estate investor, would you all consider this 15-year option as an effort just to build equity in a home? Thanks.

David:
All right, Rob, interesting take here. What do you think?

Rob:
It is an interesting take. It is. I rarely endorse a 15-year mortgage to be honest, just because I do like people using leverage and getting into more properties, but that’s not what he wants to do. And so if he’s just looking to pick up a property to build equity and when he retires have a couple of paid-off houses, then I don’t think I actually mind the 15-year mortgage because that means that in 15 years… He seemed like a young guy. When he is 40, 45, 50, if he has a couple of these that he’s stacked up, they’re all paid off, gives him options, gives him the option to retire early, right? If he can pay off a couple like six-figure houses, then he could effectively retire from his job a few years early and just live on that income. So I, for the first time ever, might be okay with this. What about you?

David:
I actually cover a strategy in the third pillar in Pillars of Wealth called the 15/15. And it’s really simple. You just buy a property, you put it on a 15-year mortgage. And even if you don’t make money, you just break even, or let’s say you lost a little bit, God forbid, in the very beginning, but you’re paying off massive chunks of principle, in year two, you do the same thing. You buy another property, put it on a 15-year mortgage. Third year you do the same thing. Fourth year do the same thing. By the third or fourth year, that first one that might’ve been losing money with rent increases should be breaking even or starting to make money, okay? And if you just repeat this for 15 years, the stuff you bought in years 1, 2, 3 by year, 6, 7, 8 should be cash flowing to make up for the properties that are losing money because the 15-year mortgage is higher. So overall the portfolio will eventually balance itself out.
Now here’s the beauty of it. In year 15, the property you bought in year one is paid off. You do a cash-out refinance on that property on another 15-year note. You live on that money for the rest of the year tax-free. Remember, when you do a refinance, you don’t get taxed because you didn’t earn money. You just took on debt and were paid in money. So let’s say you borrowed 150 grand, 200 grand against that house, that’s the money that you live on for the year. Next year, the house you bought in year two is paid off. You do the same thing. Next year you do the same thing with the house you bought in year three. When you get all the way to 15 years of that, the house that you refinanced the first time is paid off.
So essentially, if you just can buy a house and put it on a 15-year note every year for 15 years, you’ll never work again. You’ll never pay taxes again. You’ll just live off of the money that kept coming in. And it doesn’t need to be something that you put a whole lot of thought into. You just have to be able to live beneath your means to pull it off.
So for someone like Chase here, if you’re going to be focusing on making good money at work, saving that money and putting it as down payments, you’re going to be living beneath your means so that you have some cash in case something goes wrong, I don’t think this is a bad strategy at all. What do you think hearing that, Rob?

Rob:
No, no. I think it’s a perfectly viable strategy. The only thing I would say because I am kind of teeter-tottering on this one is when you get a 30-year fixed mortgage, your overall payment’s going to be less. I think you could still aggressively pay down your principal as if it were on a 15-year amortization schedule.

David:
Totally that. Yeah.

Rob:
But it gives you options in case he’s ever in a time where, I don’t know, maybe he loses his job or he just needs extra cash flow, he could pull from that at that point because he’s making more absolutely from a 30-year. So I would consider that as just like a, “Hey, when times are tough, you may want the lower mortgage payment,” right? And then also if you ever lose your job and you got to ever cover the mortgage on a 15-year mortgage, you’ll be a little bummed that it’s higher than it could be, right? So something to consider. But all in all, I would say, yeah, that seems like a good strategy to me, David. And yeah, 15-year, I think it actually makes sense for Chase.

David:
The only real upside with getting a 15-year mortgage instead of a 30 is your interest rate’s a little better.

Rob:
It’s lower, right?

David:
Yeah. Yeah. But it comes with risk. So I like your idea there. Put it on a 30-year mortgage and just make extra principal payments so that it’s paid off in 15 years. Or maybe in times when you’re doing really well financially, you make even bigger principal reduction payments and you get it paid off in 10 years and you speed up that process. Now, we never talked about this. If you’re wondering why, “David, why have you never said this in any of the years on the podcast?” It’s because interest rates were like 3% and it didn’t really make a whole lot of sense to pay that debt off when they were so low. But now that we’re getting up into 7, 8, 9, 10% interest rates, this strategy can start to make sense because that extra principle you’re paying off is giving you a much higher return than when rates were at 3 or 4%.

Rob:
Lurve. All right, well great question, Chase. That’s a good one. Makes me rethink… Yeah, I guess I never really thought I’d flip for my original stance on that.

David:
Well, it is. And not everybody has to be like you or me. You and me are knee-deep in this stuff. We love real estate. We talk about real estate. We have businesses surrounded by real estate. We give advice on real estate. You can like it but not love it. You can date it but not marry it. You don’t have to jump in with both feet completely obsessed with real estate investing.

Rob:
That’s right.

David:
All right, that is our last question for today. Rob, thank you for joining me here on Seeing Greene.

Rob:
Hey, of course.

David:
What were some of your favorite parts of today’s show?

Rob:
I honestly really like answering the HELOC question, for example. I mean a lot of these questions, it’s kind of funny because they just have different answers in 2023 than they had in 2021. You know what I mean? And so it’s always nice to kind of go back and take a look at some of these not basic concepts, but fundamental concepts such as 15-year versus 30-year, home equity lines of credit, and kind of analyze them kind of in the landscape of 2023 with the way interest rates are. So it’s an interesting way to figure out if and how my perspective has changed. And I feel like pretty much every time I do the show with you, I’m like, “Oh yeah, I guess that’s different than what I thought a year ago,” which is how real estate works.

David:
All right. In today’s show, we covered a wide range of topics including how property taxes should factor into your market analysis and property analysis, when to sell a property even if it’s cash flowing and what to do with the capital, and when a 15-year mortgage might make sense. We even painted a picture for everybody of how you can work hard for 15 years and then really never work again, especially with the advent of DSCR loans that you can use to qualify for future refinances if you just make smart financial decisions and put that money into a growing asset like real estate.
If you’d like to connect with us, check out the show notes for this episode where you can get the contact information for both Rob and I. And if you’re not already doing so, please make sure that you subscribe to the BiggerPockets YouTube channel as well as the podcast app. We are on major podcast platforms all across the country. Please subscribe there and leave us a review. Hopefully, we can read your review on a future show. This is David Greene for Rob, putting the Rob in Robin to my Batman, signing off.

Rob:
Nice.

Mat Ishbia, UWM CEO, joins ‘Closing Bell: Overtime’ to discuss his outlook on the housing and mortgage market.

Dave:
Hey, everyone. Welcome to the BiggerPockets Podcast Network. I’m your host today, Dave Meyer, and we are going to be digging into the state of multifamily in 2024. And to talk about this really important topic, we’re bringing on two of the best in the business. Honestly, these two investors are guys I’ve been following for most of my career. They’re people I look up to. And I promise, you are going to learn a lot from each of them. The first is Matt Faircloth. You’ve probably heard him on this podcast before, you’ve been listening for a while. He’s the owner of the DeRosa Group. He’s a BiggerPockets Bootcamp instructor. He wrote a book called Raising Private Capital, and knows a ton about real estate investing. The other is Brian Burke, who is the president and CEO of Praxis Capital. He has been investing for a long time, over 30 years, and he has bought and sold over 4,000 multifamily units.
So if you guys want to learn about what’s going on in the multifamily market, these two are the people you want to be listening to. And the reason we want to talk about multifamily right now is because it’s facing market conditions that are very different than the residential market. If you paid attention in 2023, the residential market was flat. There wasn’t a lot going on in terms of sales volumes, but things chugged along, and honestly outperformed a lot of expectations.
But when you look at the multifamily market, things are very different. Prices have dropped anywhere from 10 to 20%, depending on where you are in the country. And this obviously creates risk for multifamily investors. But the question is, does it also create opportunity in 2024 to buy at a discount and get some great value? So that’s what we’re going to jump into with Brian and Matt today. So with no further ado, let’s bring them on.
We are, of course, here today to talk about the multifamily market. And so Brian, I’d love just to have your summary first of all about what was going on in the multifamily market in 2023.

Brian:
Well, nothing good was going on in the multifamily market in 2023. I always say that there’s a good time to buy, there’s a good time to sell, and there’s a good time to sit on the beach. And so this beach here in the background is just really a demonstration that I live by what I say, and I actually put my money where my mouth is. There’s really no reason to invest in real estate in 2023. It’s just better to be on the beach or play golf, which is what I think I’m going to do after I get done recording this podcast. Because I’m not really paying that close of attention to making acquisitions right now, because there’s just no reason to. 2023, I think, was a year of challenge when you had a bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, where nobody could get on the same page. Buyers wanted to pay less than sellers are willing to take, and sellers wanted more than buyers were willing to pay. And there was no bridging that impasse, and I don’t think that 2024 is going to look much different, frankly.

Dave:
Matt, what do you think? Would you concur?

Matt:
Well, it’s easy when you’re Brian Burke to say, “I’m going to just chill out and not do anything.” But it’s through no harm in trying that we didn’t do anything, either. We worked really hard to try and do deals last year. But Brian’s correct, the bid-ask spread was too far apart for most deals to get done. And those that I saw do mid-size multifamily deals, which is just what we are targeting and what Brian’s targeting as well, those that were targeting those kinds of deals and that got them likely overpaid. If you look at where the market is now, and you look at where things are starting to settle down, I think that we hit the peak in 2023 of the market. I’m not sure if Brian disagrees with me on that one or not, but I think that the market hit its apex. And it’s tough to do deals when that’s happening.
And so now on our way back down, we really spent 2023 tightening up our company. We made a lot of hires, changed a lot of things around, and tried really hard to get deals done. Didn’t. Just through no harm in trying, but just the numbers weren’t there. What sellers were asking and what properties were trading for. Other people were buying these properties, just not us. It just didn’t make sense. Didn’t pencil out. Would not have achieved anywhere near the investor returns that we wanted to see. So we tried, but we didn’t. We struck out last year. And I don’t think that’s going to happen this year, though.

Brian:
Matt and I did a podcast in August together on On the Market, and if you remember, we had a pact to disagree with one another. So I’ll start it off this time. I’m going to disagree with Matt’s 2023 calling the top. I think the top was actually in 2022. And so we started selling in 2021, and continued selling into the early part of 2022, and then I think the market started to fall. So while Matt was out digging for needles in haystacks, he could have been out here on the beach with me the whole time. Come on, man.

Matt:
I could have been joining Brian on the beach, but I’m stubborn. I kept trying to get deals done. And Brian ended up, I’m not going to say this very often on the show, but Brian was right, that there was not deals to be had. And maybe the market did peak in 2022, but I still think that there were a lot of stragglers, a lot of lasts of the Mohicans, so to speak, for folks trying to get deals done, Brian, in 2023. And I mean, we got bid out on a lot of deals, so there are still people that are literally trying to force a square peg into a round hole with a very big hammer, trying to hammer that square peg into that round hole to make deals work. And a lot of deals fell out, but they still went under contract, and we got beat at the bidding table. So I, again, don’t think that’s going to happen moving forward, though.

Dave:
So let’s dig into that a little bit, Matt. You said that things were not penciling. You were trying to bid.

Matt:
Yep.

Dave:
Prices are starting to come down in multifamily from 2022 until now. What about the dynamics of the market makes you want to bid less than you would have in 2022 or 2023, and what is preventing deals from penciling?

Matt:
Well, it’s very simple, in that unless you’re going to go and do a deal and just buy it straight cash, you’re going to have to borrow money. And the cost of money. The cost of money has gotten much more expensive. In some cases, it’s doubled if not more, meaning a 3.5, 4% interest rate is now getting bid at 8% on a bridge loan, if not more. And so that same deal that would’ve maybe made fiscal sense to a degree, maybe even would’ve been pushing the envelope at debt quotes of 2020, 2021 is now subject to debt numbers in the 6, 7, 8, 9% range today. So that’s the main thing that makes the numbers not pencil.
In addition to that, I think that we were getting beat by folks that were underwriting to 2021 and 2022’s rent increased numbers, saying, “Well,” let’s say Phoenix, Arizona or a market that’s seen a lot of rent growth, and I’m not throwing shade at Phoenix, I’m just saying that market has seen a lot of rent growth. And so if I underwrite a deal, assuming… and you know what happens when you assume, right… That rent growth in Phoenix is going to continue, it may be that deal pencils out, but we weren’t willing to do that. And we felt like rent had capped, and the data now shows that it has, but we were assuming that it had six months ago.
And so you go in with new numbers for debt, and not numbers for rent expansion, it’s not going to pencil. Now again, other folks are making other assumptions. And when you underwrite a deal, you have to make certain assumptions. We were making more conservative ones, and that added up to the numbers coming in at best case, 10% below what the seller was asking. But the deals were still trading at or around asking up until recently.

Dave:
All right, Matt, so as you’ve said, the price of debt and borrowing money has made deals really difficult to pencil in 2023. Now we got to take a quick break, but when we come back, Brian, I want to hear if you agree with Matt’s analysis.
Brian, what about you? You said that you basically sat out 2023. If you weren’t looking at deals, were there any macro indicators or anything that you periodically peeked in on to know it’s not even worth looking at individual deals at this time?

Brian:
Yeah. We’ve been following it pretty closely to see when the right time is to get back in. And Matt’s right. I mean, God, I hate to say that. Matt’s right, but the cost of debt has definitely been a factor in why deals haven’t been trading. There’s no doubt about that, but it goes beyond just the cost of debt. It’s the cost of the entire capital stack. Even equity, when you think about it, three years ago, investors were trying to find places to put their money. And they were getting a quarter of a percent in a savings account. So these alternative real estate investments looked pretty darn good. Well, now they can get 5.5 in a money market. And so taking on a bunch of additional risk to maybe start out at 3% cash-on-cash return, if you can even find a deal that throws that off in year one, followed by maybe getting up to 6, 7, or 8% cash-on-cash return in a few years, the risk premium just isn’t there.
So it’s more difficult for investors to fund these kinds of deals. So I think availability of capital and the cost of the whole capital stack is part of it. The other part of it is expenses are growing. Insurance is getting much more expensive in some markets, utilities are going up, payroll is going up. All of those things are getting more expensive. And then layering on top of that, the income stream isn’t growing. And really, the reason that people were paying so much money for income streams, which is really what we’re buying. Yes, we’re buying real estate, but the reason we’re buying the real estate is because it throws off an income stream. Income streams were growing and growing rapidly a few years ago, but now they’re not doing that. Income streams are shrinking, rents are declining, vacancies are increasing. As we see some trouble in the job market, we’ll probably see increases in delinquency.
At the same time expenses are going up, interest rates are going up, the whole cost of capital is going up, so you just can’t pay as much for a shrinking income stream as you could pay for a growing one. So really, what this whole thing comes down to is price. You can make any deal out there work at the right price. And the problem that we’re seeing is that sellers want to price the assets they want to sell based upon the things they were seeing in the market two or three years ago, and that just isn’t reality.
So what am I looking at, Dave, in terms of indicators? I’m looking at more of the psychology than I am specific numerical indicators that are very easy to quantify. I want to see when people start hating on real estate. Then that’s going to be when it starts to get interesting. When you start to see more foreclosures, that’s going to be when it’s going to be interesting, especially if no one’s bidding on them. When you see pessimism about the economy, it’s going to get more interesting. That’s what I’m looking for. I’m not looking for, “Oh, rates have to hit X, and rent growth has to hit Y.” And while certainly, those factors will make it easier to quantify future income streams, that isn’t telling me exactly when I think we’ve hit bottom.

Matt:
Well said. I still have perhaps just more optimism. I’m not sure Brian’s familiar with the term, but I have optimism for 2024, with regards to where things are going to go. Did we hit the bottom? No, but I think that we’re going to see more things. And we even were starting to see more opportunities open towards the end of Q4 of last year. There was one deal that we looked at that was being sold for lower than what the seller paid for it. The seller paid 90,000 a door for it. Two years ago, it was on sale for 75,000 a door, pretty much what they owed on it. And this is a seller that bit off way more than they could chew, bought way more than what they could handle, and just needed to unload. And they were end up cutting a lot of their equity.
That was the beginning of what I think we’re going to see more of that. But you’ve got to have a really small haystack if you want to find a needle. And so our company’s only hunting in a few markets. And we were starting to see a few distressed deals show up in those markets, and I think it’s an indicator of what we’re going to see more of this year.

Dave:
One of the things I keep wondering about is when this distress is going to come, because it seems like people have been talking about it for a long time.

Matt:
Yeah.

Dave:
You barely go a day without a top media outlet talking about the impending commercial real estate collapse, and how much commercial real estate mortgages are coming due. But it hasn’t really happened. Matt, it sounds like you’re starting to see a little bit.

Matt:
Yeah.

Dave:
But let me just ask you this. Are you surprised that there hasn’t been more distress to this point?

Matt:
Well, let’s comment on that. Because they’re our lovely friends in the media. And Dave, I just commend you, because you’ve done a great job on this show, and on your outlets and on your Instagram channel as well, in breaking down a lot of the reports that we see on the real estate market in the media. So there’s a lot of media about “This pending tidal wave of less commercial real estate that’s going to be with all this debt that’s coming due.” Okay, that’s true, that there is a lot of debt that’s coming due. That properties are performing at lower interest rates, 3, 4, or 5% interest rates. And those properties are cash flowing or just getting by now, and then those rates are going to reset, right? That’s what they’re saying is those rates are not going to go from 3, 4, 5% up to 6, 7, 8%. True.
The thing that they leave out there in a lot of those articles or in folks that are screaming that from the mountaintop is that most of that debt is retail and office. And that’s not a space that Brian and I are in, and I don’t want to be in retail and office. There’s enough to do in the multifamily space, and in a new space that we’re trying on. That’s not like retail shopping centers and office space. So we do believe there’s benefit in other asset classes, but not there. Multifamily is starting to see some shifts, but I don’t think it’s going to be a “blood in the street” kind of thing like a lot of folks are predicting, like a lot of media is predicting it’s going to be. There’s not enough debt that’s in distress that’s going to come due. The number that I saw was something like Bloomberg issued an article, 67 billion in debt that’s marked as distressed.
The thing is, that sounds like a lot of money, but it’s not. Compared to the amount of debt that’s in all multifamily. So 67 billion in multifamily debt is marked as distressed. But in the trillions in multifamily debt that’s out there, that is a smidge. And so what I think that we’re going to see is the strategic outlets of bad debt and deals that are going to get released to the market. But is it going to create a crazy market correction? No, I don’t think so. I think over time, cap rates are going to go up and sellers are going to have to get real. But I disagree with Brian that there’s going to be this panic in the multifamily market, and that it’s going to become a space of bad emotion of “You know what? Multifamily, forget that. I don’t want to be in that market.” And that’s when you really want to buy anything you can get your hands on.
But I think that the opportunity is going to be in niches of markets. Meaning if I choose Phoenix as a market, I want to target, me just really drilling in on that market and then finding the opportunities, maybe the broker’s pocket listings or the off-the-market stuff that is going to be passed around to a small circle. I think that’s where good deals are going to be had, is inside of market niches.

Dave:
And Brian, it sounds like you think there might be more of an inflection point where distress hits a certain level and things start to accelerate downwards, I would say?

Brian:
Well, I think I would say not quite those extreme set of terms, but I saw an article recently, it was talking about Atlanta, Georgia, right? Atlanta, Georgia is a big multifamily market. There’s lots of multifamily units in Atlanta, Georgia. And it was somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 or 40% of the properties in Atlanta had loans maturing in the next two years. And a large percentage of those that have loans maturing in the next two years were loans that were originated in this height of the market period of 2020 through 2022. And so those were bought at very high valuations.
Valuations now are lower. And when those loans come due, there’s going to be some kind of a reckoning. Something has to happen. Either capital has to be injected into those deals, or the deals will end up selling or getting foreclosed. And 30% is a big number. And certainly, not all of those are going to wind up in some kind of a distress, but that would be a major market mover, if 30% of the properties started going into foreclosure. And that would cause a cascade of negative effects in properties that weren’t experiencing loan maturities.
Do I think that’s going to happen and play out that way? Not really. What I think is more likely is that there’s going to be a lot of these loans that are going to end up trading behind the scenes, where large private equity is going to come in, absorb the loans, buy them at a discount, and then ultimately, either they’ll foreclose and take the properties and they’ll get them at really good basis. Or they’ll sell them at current market value, and probably make a profit based on the spread between the price they purchased the loan for and the price they sold the asset for, which will, by the way, be a lot less than what that asset sold for when it was bought by the current owner. We had a deal that we sold a couple of years ago, and the current owner is trying to sell. And I calculated based upon their asking price, it’s a $17 million loss in two years.
So the distress has already begun to happen. Prices have already fallen. Whether or not people realize it or can quantify it yet, I don’t know, because there just hasn’t been a lot of transaction volume. So maybe it’s being swept under the rug, where people are like, “Oh, the market’s not going to crash.” No, I’m sorry to tell you, it’s already crashed. Prices coming down, 20 to 30% has already happened. The question is going to be, do they come down another 10 or 20%? And that’s what I’m waiting to see play out, whether or not that happens. Because one could easily argue, “Oh, prices are down 23%. It’s a great time to buy.” It is, unless there’s still more downward movement. So what I want to see is I want to see that those prices have troughed, and that they’re not going to continue to slide downwards before I’m ready to get in. I’d rather get in once they’ve started to climb and maybe miss the bottom, than to get in while they’re still falling and then have to ride the bottom.

Matt:
Rather not catch a falling knife. Right?

Brian:
Exactly.

Matt:
Yeah. The data that I’m reading, I mean, man, that sounds crazy for Atlanta. That means, first of all, I’m just going to throw it back at you, what you just said, what I heard, 30% of Atlanta traded in the last three years, right? That’s a lot of real estate. And that means that 30% of Atlanta is in a distressed position.

Brian:
Yeah, 30% of the outstanding multifamily debt is maturing in the next two years. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they traded. They might’ve refinanced, but 30% of the debt is maturing in the next two years.

Matt:
Yeah. Here’s what I’ve read, right? Not everybody is scrappy syndicators like you and me, right? There’s way larger corporations than mine and yours that own thousands and thousands of doors, and these guys are putting in loans backed by insurance companies going in at 50, 55% loan-to-value on their properties, because they’ve owned them. These are legacy assets they’ve owned for way more than 5, 10. They’re buy and hold forever kind of companies. And the data that I’ve seen are that those companies are going to be just fine. That if they end up having to take a little bit of a haircut on valuation, their LTV is so low that, “Oh, I can’t refi out at 55. I’ll have to refi up to 60 or 75.”

Dave:
So I just want to say something about the 30% number, because that number is actually not that high to me. Because if you think about the average length of a commercial loan, I don’t know if you guys know, what’s the average length of your term on commercial debt?

Matt:
Five to seven years.

Brian:
Or 7 to 10.

Matt:
Wait, wait, wait, hang on. You got bridge debt in there, Brian, and stuff like that. So I think that the bridge two-to-three-year product may pull down the 5-to-10-

Brian:
Fair enough.

Matt:
… agency. So meet me at five. You accept my terms [inaudible 00:21:43] percentage.

Brian:
All right, I’ll meet you there. You got it. I got it. Five it is.

Matt:
The answer is five.

Dave:
Okay, if five is the average debt, then doesn’t that reason in the next two years, 40% of loans should be due? Because if they come up once every five years, right?

Matt:
I’m going to let Brian answer that one.

Brian:
Yeah, well, the problem is that the debt is coming due at a really bad time. Certainly debt is always mature. That happens all the time, but how often does debt mature that was taken out when prices were very high and is maturing at a time when prices are very low? That’s the disease. It isn’t as much the percentage of loans, it’s the timing and the market conditions upon which those loans were originated, versus when they mature. That’s the problem.

Dave:
I totally agree with that. I just want our listeners to not be shocked by this number of 30%, and that it’s some unusual thing. Because if you consider five to seven years being the average debt, then always, somewhere between 28 and 40% of debt is always coming due in the next two years. So it’s just something to keep things in perspective.

Matt:
I think it’s somewhat of a shocker number, right, Dave? It is one of those things where it’s like, “We’re at 40%.” And it makes people say, “Oh my goodness, that’s so much debt.”

Dave:
And I actually think, I read something that I also think actually, that number might be low. It might be higher in the next few years, because it sounds like a lot of operators were able to extend their loans for a year or two based on their initial terms, but those extensions might be running out. And so to Brian’s point, we’re getting some really distressed or bad situations coming due at an inopportune time.

Matt:
Here’s what I’m hearing. Brian and I are plugged into very lovely rumor mills, and have lots of other friends in the industry. So here’s what the coconut telegraph is telling us that I hear, anyway. Banks are doing workouts. They don’t want these things back, although they’re very pragmatic and very dollars-and-cents-oriented. And if you owe $15 million on a property that is now worth seven, the bank’s probably going to say, “Yeah, probably going to need to go and take that thing back and collect as many of our chips as we can.” But if you are in the middle of a value-add program and you’ve got some liquidity, and you’re doing what you can do, what I’m hearing is that banks are doing workouts. And this is on floating rate bridge deals, right? That’s the toxicity that’s in the market, these bridge deals. It’s not so much someone that’s got an agency loan. That they’ve had interest rate locked for the last five years and they got a refi. That person’s going to figure it out.
I’m talking about this bridge loan that they bought two years ago on an asset that they needed to do a ginormous value-add program on, and try and double the value of the property in a year or two, and it didn’t work out, right? I’m hearing banks are doing workouts and they’re allowing people, they’re negotiating. Brian, that’s what I’m hearing. You probably heard this, too. They’re being somewhat negotiable on the rate caps, which are these awful things that are really causing a lot of strain on a lot of owners is these rate cap, which just an insurance policy you got to buy to keep your rate artificially lower than what it really is. I’ve heard that there’s that.
And I’ve heard that the banks are cooperating with owners that can show that they’re doing the right thing. And they’re not so far into the hole that there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. Brian, I’m curious what you’re hearing on that. And again, this is my inner optimist. I am not sure if you want to access that part of the outlook or not. You’re more than welcome to give me the other view.

Brian:
Yeah, the other view is that they can postpone this stuff all they want, but what they can’t eliminate is the day of reckoning. Sooner or later, something has to happen. They either have to refi, they have to sell, they have to foreclose. Something is going to have to happen sooner or later. Because even if the borrowers have to pay higher interest rates and delay rate caps, sooner or later, the borrowers run out of cash. And then the borrowers have to go to their investors and say, “Can you contribute more cash?”
And the investors are going, “I’m not throwing any more good dollars after bad. No way. I’m not sending you any money.” And then something has to happen. The lenders can do what they can do initially, but then the lenders will start getting pressure. And so here’s what a lot of people don’t realize is that lenders aren’t loaning their own money. Lenders are loaning other people’s money as well. And that might be money that they’re borrowing from a warehouse line, money that they’ve raised from investors, money that they’re getting from depositors. Wherever that money comes from, they might be getting pressure, saying, “You got to get this stuff off your books. You’re not looking so good.” Regulators are putting on pressure. So eventually, lenders have to say, “We can’t just kick the can down the road forever. Something’s got to give.” And that day has to come.

Dave:
Brian, you seem very convinced that the writing is on the wall and a day of reckoning is coming, but Matt, you seem to be more of an optimist. So I’m curious to hear from you. Do you see the same thing? But before we get into that, we have to hear a quick word from our show sponsors.

Matt:
There are a lot of folks that believe that the Feds saying that they were going to cut rates three times this year that read that. I mean, I talked to one person and said, “Well, they said three, so that probably means nine, right?” Like “What?” We’re not going back to the party time of interest rates being 2.5, 3%. That’s not going to happen again. And if the Fed really does cut rates three times, it’s going to be a dent compared to what they’ve done already. So there are folks that believe that by banks cooperating with borrowers, that will allow some time for rates to get down to where the borrower needs them to be. Probably back down to 3.5, 4%. I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Brian:
Okay, I’ll take that.

Matt:
Oh, what you got?

Brian:
I’ll take on that argument. So you’re saying that interest rates aren’t going to get back down to 2%. I agree with you. Now, when interest rates were at 2%, people were buying multifamily properties and all kinds of commercial real estate at extraordinarily high prices. And those high prices means that they were low cap rates. And cap rate is a mathematical formula that’s used to take the temperature of the market. Some people say, “Oh, a 4% cap rate means you get a 4% return.” That’s hogwash. We can have a whole show on that. But the bottom line is that very low cap rates, this mathematical formula that we’re talking about, it means that the market is extraordinarily hot. The market is not extraordinarily hot anymore.
So a 4% cap rate, that’s now a 6% cap rate, what that means is that’s a 2% difference. Doesn’t sound like much, but going from a 4 to a 6 is a 50% haircut in value. Mathematically speaking, you have to cut the price of the property by 50% for the income to go from a 4% cap rate to a 6% cap rate. And that’s what we’re seeing now. So when these loans finally do come due, and the property is worth half of what it was at the time the loan was originated, what may happen? The lender is really going to force their hand when the value can climb just high enough for the lender to get their money back. They don’t care about the owner, they don’t care about the borrower. They don’t care about the investors that put their hard-earned money into that deal. All the lender wants is their money back. And as soon as that moment comes, the bank is suddenly going to become that much less cooperative.
And when that happens, that’s the day of reckoning. It has to happen sooner or later. Now don’t get me wrong. I mean, I have a lot of this pessimism and stuff, but fundamentally, the fundamentals of housing are extraordinarily sound. People need to have a place to live. There’s a housing shortage across the US. Right now, there’s a little bit of a glut of construction. That’s going to work its way out, because nobody can afford to get a construction loan right now. Banks aren’t lending. Pretty soon, all the new deliveries are going to stop. The fundamentals of housing are sound. Housing is a good investment, but timing means something. Buying at the bottom of the market and riding the wave up is so much different of an outcome than if you’re buying before the market is finished falling, and you have to ride through a three or four-year cycle to get right back to even. That just doesn’t work. So I’m bullish for maybe 2025, 2026, 2027, but short-term bullish, no. I can’t get there. The fundamentals are there, but the rest of the equation just doesn’t work yet.

Dave:
So now that we’ve heard your takes on both last year, 2023, and what might happen this year, what advice would you give to investors who want to be in the multifamily market this year?

Matt:
Great question, because unless you’re Brian Burke, you can’t just hang out on the beach and play golf, I mean, in that. So let’s see how Brian handles that one. For what I think that investors should do, if they really want to get into the multifamily market, if they want to get involved in what I think is going to be a changing market, and there will be opportunities that are going to come up, what I believe you should do is to do what we did, which is stay super-market-centric. If it’s Atlanta, because according to Brian, 30% of the multifamilies in Atlanta are going to be refinancing or with debt coming due, just for example, and that’s probably true in most markets, if you stay market-centric, pick a market. Not 2, not 10. A market. And get to know all the brokers in that market. There are deals that are going to come up of that 30% that are likely going to be sold at a significant discount off the market.
Is market pricing where it’s going to be a big solid yes to get in? No, I don’t think it is. I don’t think that the market itself, where all the properties going to be trading or what sellers are going to be asking is going to make sense. So I think that you need to be the riches in the niches, so to speak, to find a market. And then get networked and look for opportunities that may come up. You could also do what we did, which is continue to monitor multifamily, make bids, rebid, something like 280 deals last year, or at least analyzed 280 deals and bid most of those as well.
But we also looked at other asset classes as well. Our company’s looking at everything from flagged hotels, and that is a solid asset class that makes a lot of cashflow, to other asset classes, including loans. Our company’s getting into issuing loans for cashflow. And the bottom line, guys, is whatever you get yourself into this year, it’s got to be a cash-flowing asset. It’s got to be something that produces regular measurable cashflow on a monthly quarterly basis, because cashflow is what got my company, DeRosa Group, through 2008, ’09, ’10. And it’s what’s going to get folks through 2014, ’15, and into the future, is cash-flowing assets. And not 2, 3, 4% cashflow. Significant, high-single-digit cashflow is what you’re going to need to go after. So that’s what I say you pursue.

Brian:
All right, well, challenge accepted, Matt. So not everybody has to sit on the beach for the next year. I can’t make that claim. I might, and I might not. There might be some opportunities out there to buy this year.

Matt:
You’re too itchy, man. But I don’t see you sitting on the beach.

Brian:
Yeah, probably not.

Matt:
You’re going to be doing it, too.

Brian:
I got to do something. I got to do something. There’s no doubt about that. So here’s my thoughts on this are, if you’re just getting started in real estate investing or you’re just getting started in multifamily, you actually have an advantage over Matt and myself. And that may seem awful interesting to make that claim, but here’s why I say that. I think that you’re going to find more opportunity in small multifamily now than you will in large multi. Now I’m not going to go out and buy anything less than a hundred units. For our company, it just doesn’t make sense to do that. Matt is probably somewhere in that zone, too. We’re not out in the duplex, fourplex, 10-unit, 20-unit space.
But if you’re new to multi, that’s really where you should start, anyway. You want to get that experience and that knowledge, and figure out how it works. That helps you build an investor base. It helps you build broker relationships. And frankly, in that space, in those small multi space, I think that’s where the needles are going to be found in the haystacks. Because it’s the small deals where you have the mom and pop landlords, that quintessential, as they’ve called, the tired landlord that wants to get out. That’s where the people are searching eviction records to talk to the owner to see, “Hey, I see you have all these evictions. Do you want to sell? Because it’s a pain in the neck.”
And people are like, “Yeah, I’m out.” You’ve got retiring owners that want to get out. That’s where you’re going to find opportunity in my view. I don’t think you’re going to find opportunity in 100 and 200-unit deals, because number one, those buyers are very sophisticated, generally well-capitalized. But even if they’re not, they’ve got sophisticated lenders, they’ve got all kinds of challenges, prices are down. They probably haven’t owned them all that long. They have a ton of equity, versus the mom and pop landlord that’s owned it for 50 years that has the thing paid off. They could even maybe give you seller financing.
If you want to get started, I would suggest getting started right now on two things. One, build your business. Build your systems, build your investor base, build your broker relationships, because those are all things there’s plenty of time to do. Brokers will return your calls right now, because no one else is calling them. You might as well give them a call. Build that stuff now, because when you are busy and the market is taking off, you’re going to be running a hundred miles an hour with your hair on fire. There’s going to be no time to do that.
The other thing, build all of your systems. Get together your underwriting system, learn how to underwrite. Take Matt’s classes and BP’s seminars, and all this different stuff. Learn how to analyze deals and get ready. And then go out and look for smaller multi, where all the deals are. That’s going to be a great way to start. Then when all the big multi comes back in a year, two, three, however long it takes, you’ll be more ready for that, because you’ll have all this experience and you’ll have all the systems. You’ll have the relationships. And I think that’s really the play right now.

Matt:
Well said.

Dave:
So Matt, tell us just briefly, what are you going to do in 2024?

Matt:
Great question. What DeRosa Group, our company, is going to do is we’re going to continue to monitor multifamily in the markets we’re already invested in, so we can continue to scale out geographically in those geographic markets. We’re going to pursue new asset classes. Like I said, flagged hotels is an asset class that we’re going after aggressively. And we also have a fund that just puts money into hard money, just a debt fund. That’s just an easy way to turn money around and produce easy cash flow. So we’re keeping our investors’ funds moving in other asset classes, while we monitor multifamily very, very closely, continue to bid it, and hope that we find something that makes fiscal sense for our investors.

Dave:
And what about you, Brian? Is it just golf this year?

Brian:
Yeah, I’m not that good of a golfer. So I’d like to say that, yeah, I could just play golf all year, but I’m really not that good. So I think, no, we’ll do more than that. Just like Matt, we are watching the multifamily market extremely closely. We’re looking for the signs and signals that we’ve reached the bottom, and it’s time to invest. Meanwhile, we’re investing in real estate debt. We have a debt fund where we’ve been buying loans that are secured by real estate to professional real estate investors. I think right now, the play for us is we’re more of watching out for downside risk than trying to push upside. So that’s going to be our play for 2024. And then as soon as we see the right signal, then it’s full speed ahead on searching for upside again.

Dave:
All right. Well, thank you both so much for joining us. We really appreciate your insights and your friendly debates here. Hopefully, we’ll have you both back on in a couple of months to continue this conversation.

Brian:
Can’t wait.

Dave:
On the Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kailyn Bennett. The show is produced by Kailyn Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico Content. And we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

ATTOM’s Year-End 2023 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows that foreclosure activity increased last year from 2022 levels, but is this a cause for concern for investors? 

The ATTOM report shows that foreclosure filings, which include default notices, auctions, and repossessions, stood at 357,062, up 10% from 2022 and 136% from 2021. These figures look much less alarming, however, when set in the context of pre-pandemic foreclosure levels. Foreclosure activity in 2023 was still 28% lower than it had been in 2019 and down a massive 88% from its peak in financial crisis-ravaged 2010. 

At its 2010 worst, U.S. foreclosures represented 2.23% of all U.S. housing units. At the end of 2023, this percentage stood at a mere 0.26%, a slight increase from 0.23% in 2022. 

ATTOM CEO Rob Barber commented in a press release that the 2023 rise in foreclosure activity should be viewed as ‘‘a market correction rather than a cause for alarm. It signals a return to more traditional patterns after years of volatility.”

It’s worth remembering that there was a foreclosure moratorium in place on federally-backed mortgage loans between March 2020 and July 31, 2021. This explains why foreclosure activity hit an all-time low of 0.11% of housing units in 2021. Inevitably, once the moratorium ended, foreclosure filings began climbing up. 

What Do the Numbers Mean?

Fortunately, what we’re not seeing is a nationwide wave of foreclosure activity that could signal systemic problems with the housing market and wider economy. Barber is confident that ‘‘while foreclosure activity may fluctuate, it’s unlikely to approach the highs seen in the last decade. Instead, we foresee a market that is more reflective of broader economic trends, with foreclosure filings becoming a more predictable aspect of the housing landscape.’’

Real estate investors on the ground appear to support the view that the rise in foreclosure filings at the current level isn’t worrisome. Yancy Forsythe, owner at Missouri Valley Homes, told BiggerPockets that the rise in foreclosure filings should be interpreted as ‘‘part of a market correction rather than a worrying trend.’’ In addition, while Forsythe is seeing ‘‘a similar trend of rising foreclosures in the Missouri real estate market,’’ it isn’t ‘‘alarming.’’

Still, a rise in foreclosures means that more people are unable to pay their mortgages. Investors should familiarize themselves with regional foreclosure trends. It’s on the regional level that the disparities in housing markets are beginning to show themselves. 

According to the ATTOM data, five states in 2023 saw foreclosure levels actually increase from pre-pandemic levels:

• Indiana (+73%)
• Idaho (+70%)
• Michigan (+15%)
• Nevada (+10%)
• Minnesota (+9%) 

However, these weren’t the states with the greatest overall foreclosure numbers. Those were California (29,180 foreclosure starts), Texas (28,533), and Florida (27,427). To put these numbers into context, these are all densely populated states (California has a population of 39 million), whereas Indiana is relatively sparsely populated (population of 6.8 million), and the rise in foreclosure activity here is dramatic. 

Investors need to take note of these numbers because a sharp rise in foreclosure activity means that, on the one hand, local homeowners are really struggling with affordability, and, on the other, they are having a hard time selling. Rachel Blakeman, director of Purdue Fort Wayne’s Community Research Institute, told the Fort Wayne Media Collaborative that in a thriving housing market like Northeast Indiana, ‘‘if you can sense that you’re starting to get behind on your mortgage and you need to get out of the house, you can probably sell the house relatively quickly. Depending on how long you’ve owned the house, you’re probably not underwater.’’

Redfin data for November 2023 shows that while home prices were continuing to grow in Indiana (2.2% year over year), the number of home sales declined by 9.34%. A stagnant housing market, combined with ongoing unaffordability, is bad news for local populations, and it’s not great news for investors. 

The Bottom Line

While foreclosure investing in hot markets can be lucrative, it is much riskier in areas where selling or renting out a property may present challenges. That said, high foreclosure numbers in large states are not to be taken as a sign of an unhealthy housing market. 

Take Florida, for instance. Yes, it is the state with the highest number of foreclosures, according to the ATTOM report. Yet even a rookie investor will know that Florida continues to be an attractive location for investing in real estate. 

Florida is experiencing a population boom, with nine of its largest metros expected to grow 10% or more in the next decade. Demand for Florida homes will continue to outstrip supply. What this means is that even homeowners who find themselves in a foreclosure or pre-foreclosure situation will have no trouble finding a buyer. If someone can’t afford a home in Florida, someone else will buy it.

As the Indiana example demonstrates, there will be housing markets that display different patterns within the same state. Investors should take note of this and only invest in an area with high foreclosures if it is also experiencing a population influx and has a healthy labor market. Before investing in an area, always investigate it for signs of a possible housing market decline: high foreclosure rates, high local unemployment, and high numbers of underwater mortgages.

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Jay McCanless, Wedbush housing analyst, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss how the ‘purchase-centric’ housing market will play out, whether changing yields move the demand for mortgages, and more.

Flipping houses can be extraordinarily profitable, which is one of the reasons why it’s a popular real estate investment strategy.

You go in with a competitive bid, invest some funds making repairs and sprucing up the place, and then sell. It’s rewarding, and when done well, it can be extremely lucrative. 

And while many people know about the potential expenses and risks that come with the actual acquisition, remodeling, and sale of house flipping, some investors are surprised to learn about the taxes involved.

In this guide, we’ll discuss everything you need to know about house flipping taxes, including what to expect, when you’ll pay, and the types of tax you can expect to incur. 

Understanding Tax Implications of House Flipping

Real estate is a capital asset, so profits from home purchases are taxed under capital gains rules when investors purchase a property and do not live in it as their primary residence. 

There are two types of capital gains tax: short term and long term. 

Short-term capital gains taxes are taxed the same as your income tax rate and are for profits on real estate that are held for under a year.

Long-term capital gains taxes are for assets held over a year and are charged at more favorable rates (which may range from 0% to 20%, depending on the bracket your profit falls into).

If charged a capital gains tax, buyers will typically be experiencing short-term capital gains tax, since flippers are often motivated to flip and sell quickly to maximize profit. 

That said, individuals who purchase and remodel real estate for profit on a regular basis—aka house flippers—are classified as “dealers” rather than “investors” by the IRS. Investors typically hold properties for longer, like purchasing a property and renting it out for income for several years. 

Because flippers are often considered “dealers” and not “investors,” they often do not pay capital gains taxes. The properties are considered to be inventory. 

As a result, profits on the sale of these properties are treated as ordinary income and will be subjected to the self-employment tax, which is 15.3% in 2024.

How to know if I’m a dealer or an investor?  

The IRS looks at the following criteria to determine if you’re classified as a dealer or an investor:

• The frequency and amount of real estate purchases and sales, with dealers having more purchases and sales regularly 
• Whether the purchase was ever listed as your primary place of residence
• Whether the property was purchased for the purpose of resale
• The amount of advertising that went into the property’s sale
• The extent of improvements made to the property
• The general activities of the individual flipping and selling the property

If you’re unsure what category you may fit into, you can talk to a licensed certified public accountant (CPA) with real estate experience. 

Pre-Flip Planning and Tax Strategies

Setting up business structures like an LLC or an S-corp can provide different tax benefits for house flippers.

Starting an LLC, for example, can offer multiple tax options while offering a layer of personal liability protection. They also allow for pass-through taxation, which means that the income is declared on your personal return to avoid the “double taxation” that corporations face. 

S-corps are another popular option. There’s a lot more paperwork involved, but they allow you to have “business income,” and you can choose to pay yourself as a W-9 contractor or as a W-2 employee with a salary. If used to regularly flip real estate, profits and losses aren’t treated as capital gains or losses, but as ordinary income. 

If deciding between an LLC vs an S-corp structure, some house flippers choose to set up an LLC that elects to be taxed as an S-corp, which can give you the best of both worlds. 

When in doubt, talk to a trusted advisor or CPA to help you determine what structure is best for you—ideally before you get started. 

During the Flip—Tax Deductions and Credits

Good news for house flippers: You don’t just subtract the purchase price from the sale price and call it a day for taxable income. You can also leverage both tax credits and deductions on house flips that can reduce your overall tax burden. 

Capitalized costs and common deductions for house flippers  

Common deductions and costs associated with running your business include:

• Expenses from professional services like lawyers, accountants, and consultants  
• Office expenses, including a lease and office furniture (or, alternatively, a home office deduction if working from home)
• Costs of software used to manage the business, including invoicing software, contract software, or accounting software

In some cases, the costs to renovate the property may be eligible to serve as business deductions. In many cases, you’ll need to leverage them as capitalized costs, which means that the cost is added to the original value of the property. 

These costs may include:

• Renovation costs, including materials and labor 
• Interest on loans taken to acquire the property
• Property taxes paid during the time of ownership
• Costs of obtaining permits and inspections
• Cost of utilities, like electricity and water, which are needed to perform work on the home

Keep careful track of every expense you incur, including receipts and purchase orders. 

Possible tax credits 

Some house flippers may be able to take advantage of tax credits, which is a dollar-for-dollar amount they can claim on their returns to lower the amount of taxes paid.

The most common tax credits flippers may experience are energy-efficient improvements. Examples include:

• Adding owned solar panels to a home
• Adding a heat pump to an air conditioning unit
• Upgrading to more energy-efficient appliances 

The Tax Events of a House Flip

The biggest tax events of a house flip are at the point of sale and the 1031 exchange.

Point of sale 

When you sell a property you’ve flipped, you’ll need to keep track of the profit and likely pay taxes on it. You only pay taxes on the income when the goods (aka the property) is sold. 

With a point of sale, you’ll subtract the original sales price from your resale price. That’s your gross profit, which you’ll declare on your income taxes if capital gains and losses don’t apply to your business. Business deductions will then be calculated and can reduce total tax owed. 

1031 exchange

Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code allows taxpayers in certain circumstances to defer recognition of capital gains—and its related liability on your federal income tax on the exchange of certain types of property in what’s appropriately called a 1031 exchange. 

A 1031 exchange, however, primarily applies to investors, not dealers, meaning the home was held primarily for sale as opposed to a long-term investment. 

If you do flip a house and leverage it as a rental property for an extended period of time, however, a 1031 exchange may be an option. 

Filing Taxes After a House Flip

When filing taxes after a house flip, there are a few things to keep in mind. 

First: You’ll report all income paid in the previous year on your annual return. You may need to file a business and personal return if you’ve incorporated. In the U.S., everyone needs to file a federal return, though many states also require you to pay state income taxes. 

When your annual return is filed, you will be expected to pay whatever is owed that hasn’t been paid throughout the year, with the infamous deadline falling on April 15 most years. 

You can file your personal return with Form 1040. Business return forms depend on your incorporation structure. 

You may also need to pay quarterly estimated payments throughout the year, which you’ll ideally pay through the year to pay self-employment tax. You’ll need to pay if you’re expected to owe $1,000 or more when your return is filed, or $500 or more if you’re a corporation. Quarterly taxes are typically owed on days around the 15th in the following months:

• April 
• June
• September
• January

You can pay quarterly estimated payments with Form 1040-ES. 

If you must pay capital gains taxes, you’ll typically need to pay that tax after you sell the asset, though it may only become fully due when you file your annual return. You may be required to pay quarterly estimated taxes. 

State-Specific Considerations

As discussed, federal taxes apply to all house flippers, but individual states may have their own tax laws, too. It’s important to keep these in mind. Each state may also have their own income requirements. 

Connecticut, for example, has a graduated individual tax with ranges from 3% to 6.99%, depending on your income bracket. They also have a 7.5% corporate income tax rate. 

States like Florida, New Hampshire, and Wyoming, meanwhile, do not charge personal income taxes. Some of these states do have corporate tax rates, however; Florida has a corporate tax rate of 5.5%. 

Leveraging Professional Help

Flipping houses can be complex, and it’s no surprise that taxes on flipping houses can be equally complex. For this reason, we strongly recommend working with an experienced CPA. 

A CPA can advise you about the benefits of different incorporation options and ensure that you’re paying all the taxes owed when you need to. And in many cases, CPAs can save you more than what you pay them by finding potential deductions while avoiding penalties. 

For best results, we strongly recommend opting for CPAs with real estate investment experience. 

Final Thoughts

Taking the time to ensure that you’re paying the right taxes when they’re owed is essential for house flippers. No one wants to find out they owe an extra $10,000 (plus penalties) when April rolls around. 

When you’re ready to start flipping houses, make sure you consider how you want your business to operate. That will determine what types of taxes you pay, how much, and when.

Dreading tax season?

Not sure how to maximize deductions for your real estate business? In The Book on Tax Strategies for the Savvy Real Estate Investor, CPAs Amanda Han and Matthew MacFarland share the practical information you need to not only do your taxes this year—but to also prepare an ongoing strategy that will make your next tax season that much easier.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.