Dave Meyer:
Everyone, welcome to On the Market. I’m your host, Dave Meyer, joined by Henry, Jamil, James, and Kathy. How is everyone?

Jamil:
Great. Fabulouso.

Kathy:
Doing well.

Dave Meyer:
Good. Well, it’s good to have you all here. Jamil, we missed you while you were gone. It’s great to have you back.

Jamil:
Thank you.

Dave Meyer:
For everyone listening, we’re going to have two parts to this show today. We’re going to play a game called, Hot or Not, where our panelists are going to tell us whether they like certain strategies for this type of market, and then we’re going to go into what we call our correspondent show, where we’re going to be talking about some of the more important, and relevant news stories for real estate investors that are going on right now in February of 2023. Hey guys, ready to play Hot or Not? I feel like this could get mean. I feel like it’s like a middle school game. I have some repressed feelings about a game called Hot or Not.

Jamil:
A past trauma?

Henry:
Flashbacks of rejection.

Dave Meyer:
Yeah, just being notted a lot.

Jamil:
But is that website still up? Should we all put our pictures up on it?

Henry:
Absolutely not.

Dave Meyer:
I am on my work computer, and I’m not going to type in hotornot.com on my work computer.

Jamil:
Do they track keystrokes there on your work computer? Like what’s Dave typing today?

Henry:
Scott Trenches just watching you type all day.

Dave Meyer:
Yeah, sorry [inaudible 00:01:26] .

Jamil:
Although just to say I think if Dave was looking at Hot or Not, in my world, all that would appear would be sexy, or not sexy numbers.

Dave Meyer:
Oh yeah. Yeah.

Jamil:
It’d be like pie charts, versus line graphs.

Henry:
Look at that IRR. Mmm.

Dave Meyer:
It’s true. It’s just data visualizations, and people talking dirty about them. All right, well, enough of that. Let’s get on to our show, where we’re going to be talking about different strategies. I want to hear from each of you, is this strategy right now hot or not? And I guess it’s not like hot, like are people doing it? Is it, would you do it? So let’s start with short term rentals. Henry, hot or not?

Henry:
I’m going with nyet.

Dave Meyer:
Nyet? Okay.

Henry:
Not, not hot. I say that with a caveat. I’m doing it with a couple of deals, but I think what you’re starting to see with the Airbnb kind of slow down, both seasonality obviously is playing a role, but also the increased inventory of Airbnbs is causing demand to go down, which is causing pricing, nightly rates to come down.
And I think you saw a lot of people who had gotten into the Airbnb space because they were just like, “Oh, I can make five times what I’d get long-term rent. I just got to throw some furniture in there, and stick it up on Airbnb? Heck yeah.” Right? So, you’ve got a lot of people in this space who are truly running a business, who are truly looking at the metrics, and setting their properties apart, providing the amenities necessary in their particular regions.
They didn’t do that kind of market research. They’re not true operators. And so I think that if you look at Airbnb from that perspective, in 2023, you’re going to see a lot of those people who just kind of came in hoping to capture a bunch of cash, they’re going to fall to the wayside.
I still think buying properties at deep enough discounts that you can afford to pivot, and you can put those on Airbnb, I still think there’s some benefit there and you can make decent money with Airbnb. But, you have to operate it properly. Do the proper market research, offer the right amenities, have the right business practices in place, be able to do the proper marketing.
You didn’t have to market before, you just had to have it out there, and now you have to market, and set yourself apart. And so, it’s a more… I don’t even want to call it a more difficult strategy now. It’s what it should have been in the first place, is it’s a business, and you should treat it that way.

Jamil:
Hospitality.

Henry:
Yeah.

Jamil:
It’s hospitality. We got to get back to hospitality, right Henry? I mean let’s… There’s a Airbnb here in Phoenix, Arizona, it’s always booked because they have llamas.

Dave Meyer:
There. Everyone go out and get a llama, just go get a llama.

Kathy:
Llama. I never thought about it.

Dave Meyer:
Put a llama on it.

Kathy:
There’s one here that has a giraffe, so yeah.

Dave Meyer:
What? That seems illegal.

Kathy:
It’s a famous giraffe. It’s the one from…

Henry:
It’s the Toys “R” Us giraffe?

Kathy:
No.

Dave Meyer:
It’s Geoffrey? It’s Geoffrey.

Henry:
He retired from Toys “R” Us?

Kathy:
It’s the one from the Bachelor one, the Vegas one. What am I trying to say? The movie.

Henry:
The Hangover?

Kathy:
The Hangover. Yes, yeah, it’s the one from The Hangover. It’s that one. Yep. It’s a rescued giraffe from Hollywood.

Dave Meyer:
Honestly, you know what? I would stay there. I’m curious now. All right, so everyone, it’s short term rentals are hot if you have an obscure farm animal, but if you don’t, be very careful about it, is apparently the lesson. Does anyone else disagree? Anyone else want to give me hot or not for this? Jamil, it sounds like not? Kathy or James?

Jamil:
Yeah, not.

James:
Not.

Kathy:
Not. Not right now. I keep reading stories that actually it’s increasing now, and that vacation properties are kind of back in style, but I could tell you in our own case, we’re down 50% from last year, if not more.

Dave Meyer:
Same. Yeah, mine mine’s down a bit too, and I don’t know, I feel like it was a gold rush, and now it’s back to just grinding it out, like any other business. It’s not like the easy money any more like it once was. But maybe it’ll rise again. We’ll see. All right, let’s move on to buy and hold. Kathy, I’m just going to give you a layup right now.

Kathy:
Hot. So hot. So, so hot.

Jamil:
I mean, can anyone disagree with that?

James:
Yeah, I’m a, I’m going to disagree with that.

Dave Meyer:
You are?

James:
I’m a not on buy and hold.

Dave Meyer:
Really?

James:
But it depends on what you want to buy. Like the BRRRR properties I think are really hot. That’s a hard to buy. But for us, at least in our market, the lower income stable ones where you’re just putting 20% down, like a traditional rental property, and that’s kind of how I’m defining that the, you’re still competing against first time home buyers, and that market is competitive. Yes, the market’s down, but we’re moving stuff, and so it’s hard to get a good, stable, just buy and hold. And again, I’m classifying this as single family rentals. I think there’s a lot of multi family, a lot of BRRRR opportunities, but if you just want that straight base hit, single-family rental deal, not a good yield right now, I would get something else.

Dave Meyer:
Yeah, that’s interesting. So you’re saying basically you like rental properties, but it needs to have some sort of value add component.

James:
Yeah. It needs to have value add. I just don’t think the opportunities are there. If you want your base hit rental deal, 20% down, carpet, paint, release, the margins are not good. Not with the rates right now. And you have to put more money down, and I think you can get into buy and hold, but you got to get the ones that no one wants, or the ones that are a little bit hard, and then those deals are substantially better than they were 12 months ago. So there’s opportunities, and holdings, but just not for your straight base hit deals. This is thought… I think for me, you can get 3x your return in the other spaces.

Kathy:
It’s funny, I would’ve thought that, but I just had a conversation with our Indianapolis team at Real Wealth, and they said the cash flows today are the same that they were before, because rents have gone up so much in those areas, and now there’s more inventory.
Last year you couldn’t even get anything, and if you did you’d have to outbid other people. You’re not having to do that now, but the rents have gone up, and they’re holding. So he said it’s no different, and in so many cases the sellers are actually paying points to bring your rate down, and so you’re probably getting the same, if not better rate than you could get last year. So, I thought that was really interesting, and we had looked at the proforma, and tore it apart, and he was right. It’s similar.

Jamil:
Right now. I like buy and hold as a short term strategy. I know that kind of sounds crazy, but I think that if… Because I’m allergic to holding stuff, and I’m going to continue to be that way, because of past trauma, 2008, and getting my hand burnt when I was trying to buy a multi-family.
But what I’m going to say is, I am still seeing opportunities to buy really, really deeply discounted property out there, and if I can hold it just this period of time of pain where I think things start to stabilize, and once we come around the bend, if I can at least break even between my purchase, until my exit, which I think will be 18 to 24 months from now, I am looking for substantial returns on that. So, I just want to buy, hold. I don’t even care if I cash flow, just break even until I can take my exit, and cash in my chips at the casino.

Dave Meyer:
All right, so that’s like lukewarm, lukewarm, not hot or hot. It’s like-

Jamil:
Yeah. Yeah.

Dave Meyer:
Yeah. Okay.

Henry:
I mean, I agree. I think James and Kathy are both right, honestly. It’s similar to the Airbnb conversation. There was a gold rush when the market was super hot, and you could get 2% interest rates, and things were going up in value so quickly. So, you could buy something at a slight discount, and all of a sudden you’re renting it out, rents were going up, so you can make the cash flow work.
You’re not going to find those easy opportunities as much, the ones James was talking about. You’re not going to be able to make those pencil. But if you can, and are good at looking, and finding undermarket value deals, I mean, the discounts that we’re able to get, and then the rents that we’re able to get from, after we renovate those properties, man, we’re cash flowing just as much as we were before.
And a lot of the times it’s making more sense, because typically in my business, we keep the multis, and we sell the singles, but right now, the way we’re deeply getting the discounts on these singles, it makes more sense sometimes for me to just keep them as rentals, even if I do it in that short term timeframe, like Jamil is talking about, when I can sell them at more of a discount.
So even if it’s not something I want to keep in my portfolio forever and ever, the cash flow makes sense right now, because if I do turn those deals, like for example, I have a deal right now, I’m closing today, I’m going to make a $17,000 profit. It would’ve made more sense for me to just renovate it a little bit, stick a tenent in, and cash flow it every month until the market changed. So, the numbers are just making more sense as rentals on single families, depending on the type of discount you’re able to get, and how much you got to spend on that reno.

Dave Meyer:
For sure. All right, well let’s do one last one. Let’s talk about flipping here. James, hot or not?

James:
I think it’s hot. If you find the right opportunities, but it has to be ones that… Where we’re having success in flips right now is going in the spaces that everyone’s freaked out by. There is a lot of opportunities in there. When we’re buying an average price of seven to 950,000, the discounts are about 15% cheaper than the flips that we’re looking that are 300 to 500 on the acquisition.
And so, it can be hot if you get into the right space. I think the overall investor demand is that the not right now. No one’s really looking for flips, which is another good thing for us. We can go find those opportunities that are there. I mean, I just bought a house, we contracted it yesterday. I would’ve paid 600 for this at the beginning of the year, or at the beginning of 2022. We just contracted over 435.

Jamil:
[inaudible 00:12:08].

Henry:
Wow.

James:
And not only can I flip it, I can also build a daddy with a backyard.

Dave Meyer:
Oh, nice.

James:
But because it was a full permit job and it’s going to be a 12 month project, everyone’s like, “Nah, I don’t want to deal with this right now.” So, the margins have… Starting to really increase on the ones that are tougher. So if you can hang in there, and actually go after… Go where no one else is going, and you can absolutely crush it right now.

Dave Meyer:
Anyone else have thoughts, hot or not, on flipping?

Kathy:
I would’ve said not hot, but James is so hot that it’s making flipping sound hotter. But he makes a really good point that, I mean really, I wasn’t flipping when it was super hot for everybody, because I’m just not good at it, but maybe it’s time to start. But there’s a lot of belief that rates are going to go down in May, because the inflation numbers are going to look so much better year over year, and the average is year over year, and that may is really the month that that’s going to happen. And so, if you were to get something now and try to sell it in May, that could be really good timing, now that you mention it. It makes a lot of sense if you get it now with the discount, and then resell when mortgage rates are better.

Jamil:
Personally, of course I flip houses on TV, and so A, I have to for a part of my life, but secondly, the price point really matters. And for me, I’m staying away from the luxury, or, I’m not super luxury, but that between 750 and 1.5 million kind of price point, I’m staying away from flipping anything in that range. I’m really liking manufactured homes. I’m really liking really, really, really, really entry level fix and flips with minimal repairs, that that product is still moving. It’s profitable, and as long as you can acquire at a good price, it’s safe.

Dave Meyer:
All right. Hot. Enough said. Flipping is hot.

Henry:
Yep. I got two deals. I got two deals I’m going to net six figures on at flips right now, in this crazy market.

Dave Meyer:
Nice.

Henry:
And we’re talking six figures in Arkansas, so the margin is… That’s huge for here.

James:
Yeah. What kind of cash on cash return is that? Is that like two, 5000%?

Henry:
Yeah, well, I literally have no money in either one of the deals, so it’s infinite for me.

Kathy:
Smoking hot.

Dave Meyer:
James, those are the type of numbers I look at on hotornot.com, just those types of IRRs. All right, well we’re going to take a quick break, but then we will come back with our correspondence show.
Okay. Serious time everyone. All right, that was fun. Now, let’s talk about the news. James, you have a story for us about how the housing market is performing. Can you share something with us?

James:
Yeah, so this article is from Fortune Magazine, and it says, “Well, we are in a bifurcated housing market correction. Just look at these four charts,” was the title, and what it references a lot. It talks about how John Burns, which is a great data source in general, was predicting at the beginning of the year, a big decline, versus what they were saying at Zillow, where Zillow was actually predicting a 24% increase this year, year over year.
And John Burns came out pretty negative at the beginning of the year, thinking that there was going to be a fairly big decline, and it turns out he was not wrong in a lot of the major cities, and what it looked like was, in the top 150 major housing markets, 100 of them declined pretty drastically. San Francisco was down 10.5%, Austin’s down 9.5%, Reno’s down 9.3%, et cetera. And then there was 50 that were really just flat.
And what it comes down to, we’ve all been talking about it for the last couple months, is just the affordability in the market, and the markets that have been the biggest decline also had the furthest appreciation, but they were already at the top of the market going into this last… Like in 2018, things were at the top, and people were hitting their affordability. Once rates dropped so low, it spiked everything up again. But once those rates started increasing, it just had to get back down to the affordability.
And so, it really talks about how they believe that rates are going to continue to increase for next year, and that you need to watch, in these… As you’re investing, or how I read it is how you’re investing, you can look at the markets, and where their affordability ranges are, and that has a huge, huge impact on whether that market’s actually going to decline.
It’s not about that fad of a market anymore, or like… Some of the novelty in the markets have worn off, and it’s really just comes down to straight affordable. Can the buyer pay this with what income that they’re making? And so, as a flipper, or an investor, how I kind of read that is we think rates are going to go up, then yes, we could see further decline, like in Seattle. Seattle was a big drop.
I know in Jamil’s market too, in Phoenix, we saw a big drop, and it all had to come in with that top end of the market. And so, if you think rates and affordability are going to continue to climb, that those could actually deflate even further. But, it is talking about how it really just made two different markets. You have your affordable markets, and your expensive markets, and the affordable markets have seen very, very little, to zero decline. Like in Charleston, they were saying, has saw zero, and the expensive markets are deflating down.
And I did think that was the interesting point. Yeah, it comes down to affordability, got two markets, and I actually think there is going to be a third market though. It’s not just going to be two. I think you’re going to have your affordable markets, like tech, and that’s what we’re seeing right now. Seattle, San Francisco, Austin, the markets have deflated about 10% from last year, and I’m seeing it about 25% down from peak pricing.
But now we’ve kind of hit this affordable market, and we’ve sold a ton of houses in the last 10 days. I was running about 35 to 40% pending on all of our… At any given time we have about 60 to 70 listings. We were running about 35 to 40% pending for the last six months, and now we are up to 55 to 65% pending, and I’m getting offers regularly on all product, not just affordable.
We listed our farmhouse flip for $3.25 million. We were anticipating to be on at 60 days. We got an offer in 10 days. And so, things are moving again. So, as a flipper, I’m going, “Okay, well if the rates are going to spike up, I just need to undercut my values a little bit.” But there is this sweet spot where things are trading, and it also leads to big opportunities in these deflated markets.
Because what this is saying, is it’s all based on affordability, if we all think rates are… I think rates are going to drop in the late quarter, that means I’m going to see some appreciation there, too. And that’s what you can check for to get those massive equity pops, and really change your whole trajectory in real estate, for me. So I’m looking for those opportunities that I’m going to see those equity pops, because it makes it kind of more of an equation. Like, “All right, if we know where it’s going to sell on the affordability factor, then we just got to watch rates, and we can run with the rates, and kind of watch those equity positions rise or shrink.”

Dave Meyer:
Are you saying, James, that you think it’s picking up in Seattle because prices have fallen so far that they’re now affordable again?

James:
Yeah, it just got out of reach for people, because there’s still a ton of buyers in our market. We listed a couple homes last week, or we have a listing coming up right now in Mount Lake Terrace. Mount Lake Terrace is… So it’s north of Seattle, good commuter city. We saw massive appreciation in this neighborhood the last two years. I’m talking about 50, 60% appreciation. Huge, because just location, development, and the city also being improved.
And it definitely shrunk about 10% from where it was in the peak, but I pulled up, or [inaudible 00:20:34] get into list, there isn’t one home for sale in the entire city of Mount Lake Terrace that I saw that would be… So I’m going to be the only house for sale.

Dave Meyer:
Whoa.

James:
And what happened is, there was a lot more inventory in the wintertime, which I do think the seasonal slowdowns are coming back. Seasonal slowdowns were always a real thing, until COVID hit. Wintertime, you’re always going to sell your… It is going to take longer to sell, it’s going to sell for a little bit less. And then with rates increasing, it got the inventory increased more. But I mean, we’re talking about, their inventory increased like 35, 40% in these areas, if not up to 80%, and it got absorbed in the last two weeks, very, very quickly.
And we’re actually starting to see some multiple offers again too, where things are getting actually bid up, as well. So, I feel like it had this sudden drop, we’re on the shelf, and now the consumers are… They have to buy it. There is so many buyers in our market, they just can’t get in reach with what’s coming to market. And now, with the pricing getting down to that sweet spot, things are getting consumed again. I mean, there is a substantial amount of buyers in our market, even with the high rates, and no inventory.

Dave Meyer:
Wow. Super interesting. Yeah, I’ve heard a lot of that. I was just talking to my real estate agent in Denver who was saying something similar, and I guess Seattle and Denver are probably those types of tech markets. What you were talking about, that tier of tech markets that are high priced, and have seen some of the furthest drops, peak to current, so far. Jamil, given you’re in a pretty pricey market there, what’s going on with you in Phoenix?

Jamil:
Well, we had a very seismic type report by the New York Post, where Goldman Sachs predicted a 2008 style crash in Phoenix, Austin, San Diego and San Jose, and they’re predicting 27% or greater price decline for 2023. So, this obviously created just a massive ripple effect of conversations amongst the investor community, and real estate agents, and whatnot. So, my phone was blowing up, and so of course I start doing some digging, and looking at how true is this prediction.
And looking at the corrections, of course, each of these markets have seen declines, and what I’ve seen so far, from peak to present, we’re looking at about a 9.9% peak to present drop in Phoenix, Arizona, San Jose. And again, data is varying between different sources, but it’s all relatively close, from in San Jose I’m seeing about 8.9% peak to present, San Diego, 6.7% peak to peak to present decline, and in Austin, 14% peak to present decline, which is… I mean that, to me, if I’m looking at a possible market that could have that type of depression, or that type of crash, it could potentially be Austin.
But again, the fundamentals in each of these markets are really strong, and you still have very, very strong lending criteria. Days on market on average is like 30 days, or less in each of these markets. You’re also seeing these surges in first time landlords, which is an increasing thing, which is an interesting thing to think about, because people who have cheap debt in these markets, rather than just go and throw their house on the market, and sell it at a steep discount, they’re deciding to turn into landlords, and they’re going to hold that house, and keep that cheap debt, and possibly remove that from creating inventory increases.
The other interesting piece, because I have KeyGlee in my world, we’re in one of the nation’s largest wholesale operations, and I’m looking at buying, and what the institutional buyers are doing, and it’s just interesting timing that we see a report like that come out, and the institutions that we’re working with are all turning up, they’re buying in those markets.
And then when I say turning up, I mean they’re reaching back out to us. They’re emailing saying, “Hey, send us everything,” but our buy boxes have changed dramatically. So now, they are decreasing substantially where their offer number would’ve been. And so, it’s like they’re looking at a report like that as their justification for coming in, and trying to purchase that 25% below where they would’ve been purchasing, say, three or four months ago.
So it’s like this, is report creating movement which will actually fulfill the prophecy that this situation could potentially occur? So, that’s interesting. But, on the other side of that, after the holiday season, we looked at our pendings, just here in Phoenix, Arizona, and I mean, it’s spiked, just like James was reporting, in the last little while his flips, he’s at what, 50 or 60% pending, where normally he’d be at like 35, 40% pending.
We’re seeing something very similar here in Phoenix, Arizona as well. So, how does that happen? How is a 30% decline supposed to occur, when we still have low inventory, when building has screeched to a halt, when we’ve got home locked buyers, because interest rates were low for all that time, and they do not want to let go of that asset?
I mean, I don’t know. I don’t see it. I don’t see it. I don’t see it naturally happening. But again, everything that we’re looking at, and working with right now, are not natural real estate cycle phenomenon. This is all manipulation. It’s all so many different factors, and agencies, and institutions, and doing things. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, I’m just looking at the writing on the wall and I’m like, “Who’s controlling? Who is the puppet master here, and how do I become friends with that person?”

Kathy:
I could tell you one of the puppet masters is the one we’ve been talking about for a year now, and it’s the Fed, and what they’ve been doing. And this isn’t my article, but it’s an article that’s really good, and I’ll just share it really quickly. It’s from National Association of Home Builders, and I think you guys also saw this, how many households were priced out by higher mortgage rates in 2022.
And it shows these graphs of when interest rates went from 3.25%, to percent to 7% in a matter of months. I mean, what a shock to the system. This is doubling the payment in just a matter of months. And in that process, it went from 44 million people who could afford to buy a home, down to 26 million in a matter of months. We’re talking 15 million people priced out, boom, just like that, in a matter of months. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Now, recently, we went from that 7% rate down to about 6.4%. So this article is basically saying in the last few months that brought 2.6 million people back into the market. Now, as over the next few months, most people are assuming, and seeing that with inflation going down, so will mortgage rates, mortgage rates follow inflation, and that we will probably get into the high fives. And that brings in a whopping almost 8 million more people who can afford to buy.
So, a lot of what, again, James was saying earlier, and what you are saying now, Jamil, of like there’s this change, it’s because now there’s more people who can come back in, and they’re learning, and they’re being educated by their mortgage broker that, “Hey, you’re going to pay a little bit more to get your rate down maybe to the fives, maybe a point or two.”
I just talked to a mortgage lender yesterday who said, “It’s just like a point or so to get you into the fives.” And again, that’s bringing in 8 million more people, and paying that one point is a lot less than the higher prices that they were paying before. And you have a lot of people who are sitting on cash, ready to buy, and suddenly couldn’t, but had the down payment. So, it’ll be a lower down payment, but the difference goes towards paying down the rate. So, that may be one of the reasons you’re seeing more people coming back in, and sales picking up.

Dave Meyer:
And people are coming in with FOMO. They missed the opportunity.

Kathy:
Yeah.

Dave Meyer:
Because rates spiked, and now they’re back in it, and they are moving right now. They are really jumping on stuff. They don’t want to get priced back out again.

Kathy:
Yeah.

Dave Meyer:
When you put it that way, Kathy, it’s pretty amazing. The housing market has been as resilient as it is.

Kathy:
Yeah.

Dave Meyer:
The fact that we’re seeing, I think the Kay Schiller came out the other day, in a seasonally adjusted manner. It’s just 2.5%, peak to trough, to peak to current is 2.5% declines, and that’s with what, 30% of buyers being priced out? It is pretty remarkable, and I think why, to your point, Jamil, 30% declines. Maybe in a few markets, who knows, but it just seems unlikely, especially with what’s happened in the last couple weeks with there’s a lot of activity going on.

Kathy:
Yeah. And it’s important to note that with sales down, sales down 30%, you’re getting a smaller pool of properties to even look at, and averages to even look at. It was kind of like in 2009, when everything was a foreclosure that was on the market, then prices seemed really low, but it wasn’t a real price, it was just foreclosure prices, because that was the main what was on the market, and that’s what we’re seeing. What’s on the market is maybe being discount, but that doesn’t really state the whole, it’s sales are down so low, it’s just a small percentage of what’s out there.

Dave Meyer:
Yeah, absolutely. Well it’s interesting what you said Jamil. I’m curious to hear how it evolves with these institutional buyers, because you’re sort of at the forefront of it in Phoenix. I think it would be interesting to know, in some of those other markets that you mentioned, you said like San Jose, I don’t think that’s a big institutional buyer area, or San Diego, it’s so expensive.

Jamil:
Not a huge institutional buyer area, but they do buy there, and it’s some of the… Also those smaller portfolio buyers, which are still… It’s still in the hundreds of millions of dollars when we’re talking about access to capital, and their ability to purchase. So, I mean, they’re still buying, they’re turning on the taps.

Henry:
I am with you Jamil. I get it. I also, not a conspiracy theorist, but I mean, you can put pieces together of a puzzle, and if it makes a picture, it makes a picture. But what you’re saying is echoed in my market, it’s also right in line with the article that I brought to share, which is that mortgage demand has jumped 28% in one week, as interest rates are now at their lowest point in months.
And so, the highlights of the article are just saying that the average interest rate for a 30 year fixed is around between 6.2 To 6.4, and more people are applying for mortgages. It’s up 25% week over week. Now, putting that into perspective, that’s still down 35% from 12 months ago at this same time. But when you look at rates being at their lowest point since September, that’s significant.
And I think what you’re starting to see is that people are realizing that the two and 3% interest rates, that ship has sailed. I think people are finally starting to get it. We’re not going back there. We’re not going to get that low again. I mean frankly, a lot of people don’t want to get that low again, because what does that mean for what’s happening in the economy, if we have to get there again?
And so, people are just starting to realize that this is what you pay for an interest rate now. Life happens, and things move on. Yes, people are… There is a subset of people who are priced out of the market, but that’s going to happen, no matter what interest rate you’re at. So, there are some people that can afford to buy, some people that can’t. I think people are starting to… I think the sticker shock is wearing off, and it’s just now this is what rates are, and life continues to move on.
People need to move for different reasons. People want to move for different reasons. And when you have two income households who have stable jobs, and are making a decent salary, it’s easier for them to afford homes. And what I’m seeing in my market is echoing that. It’s echoing what you’re saying as well. We listed a flip, which would be considered for a luxury flip in my market, and that’s a “risky” strategy right now unless you’re James Dainard. So, those luxury flips, we put it on the market, we had it on the market for 24 hours, had 10 to 12 showings, and got four offers, all over asking price.

Jamil:
Over asking.

Henry:
Over asking. One of them… We listed it at 550, and we are under contract at 570.

Dave Meyer:
And what’s the median home price in your area, Henry?

Henry:
The median home price in my area is like 300.

Dave Meyer:
Oh, so this is really upscale.

Henry:
275 to 300. Yeah.

Dave Meyer:
Okay.

Jamil:
I think I want to move to northwest Arkansas, man.

James:
Yeah, I think we all should move there.

Dave Meyer:
We keep saying that, but I don’t even know if they have an airport. How do you even get there?

Henry:
We have an international airport. You have to remember-

Dave Meyer:
Sure.

Henry:
That the Waltons funded this place. Do you think the Waltons aren’t going to have an international airport built here, where they can get in and out?

Dave Meyer:
I think they have an airport that they use. I don’t know if we’re allowed to use it.

Henry:
Private.

Jamil:
Henry, was that 20% spike in mortgage applications national, or just in the-

Henry:
National.

Jamil:
Region… That’s nationally?

Henry:
Yes.

Jamil:
Guys.

Henry:
Mortgage applications are up. More people are entering the market because I think they feel a little more comfortable that these are what the rates are going to be, and people are applying for home loans. And also, to echo what Jamil was talking about, the money is starting to be in demand again.
I’ve had two conversations in the last seven days. One with an institutional buyer, just like Jamil was talking about, called me and said, “Hey, send me anything. Send me what you have, we want to buy.” And one a bank, yesterday, a banker, small local bank literally reached out to me and said, “Hey, we need your business. I can still do loans with a six in front of them,” which is, when you’re talking about commercial lending, we’re usually paying a higher rate, so that’s solid. So he’s like, “Bring me what you got. I can do loans with a six in front of them. I’m willing to be flexible with the rates and terms.” So, they’re wanting to lend, more people are buying, and so I kind of see what you’re saying, Jamil. I see what you’re saying.

Dave Meyer:
I like it. All right. Well, that’s super interesting. I mean, I think that we’re in this really odd spot with mortgage rates, where people don’t know if they’re going to go up or down. And so, anytime there’s this… Like over the next year or so, where if there’s these short term fluctuations where they go down, people are jumping in.
And I think this just goes to show something that people overlook from a housing market perspective, is just demographics. There are just a lot of people who want to buy homes, and they are willing to wait for a little bit for a mortgage rate, but most people aren’t like us, where they’re sitting around looking at the interest rates, and forecasting what they’re going to be in May, and then October, and thinking about their strategy. They’re like, “I want a house. It went down half a point, and I’m going to jump in now.” It just goes to show, that’s how homeowners who make up 70% of the housing market make their decisions. It’s not what we’re talking about. All right, Kathy, let’s round it out. What do you got for us?

Kathy:
Well, this is actually a blog from the JP Morgan website. It’s JP Morgan Chase. The Economic Outlook for 2023, Trends to Watch. This was actually written in December, but I really think they’re pretty spot on so far. They said, “The US economy likely will slow this year, but the economy will grow.” So, it’s like half a percent to 1%. So, super slow growth, but that’s not a recession. That’s important, I think, for a lot of people who are hearing… I mean, all you have to do is type in recession on Google and you might want to get a handkerchief, and just cry a little bit.
But yes, the economy is slowing, but it doesn’t really look like a recession is coming quite yet, and they kind of predict it would be maybe towards the end of the year, or 2024, but mild. So, we shall see. It depends a lot on what the Fed does. Now the Fed just raised rates another 0.25%, and it looks like they’re going to do it again probably in their next meeting, another 0.25%.
And they’ve been saying for a long time they’re shooting for about a 5% fund rate, Fed fund rate, and they’re almost there. So, it could just be one more. A lot of people are in agreement that it would just be one more quarter percent rate hike, and then it just holds there for a bit.
And based on what we’re seeing, where we keep seeing job growth, and we keep seeing jobless claims declining, in spite of everything that’s happened this year, that could be true. That could be true that it’s a very mild recession at the end of the year. So those thinking that it’s going to be a 2008, it’s different. It’s different. Totally different dynamics this time around.
And then, as far as the housing market, you guys all said it all, I think we know it may be better than JP Morgan. I don’t know their lenders. They might probably need to know what to expect too. They’re expecting residential investment could be down 10 to 12% in 2023.
So again, that’s not a 2008 housing market crash, and that’s an average, meaning that some areas would do worse, and some areas would do better. And that’s what we were talking about, these different markets. I’ve been following John Burns Real Estate for many, many, many years, and that was always his message is that every single market is different. And there, again, no national housing market, and some are going to be more affordable, some are going to be less affordable, some are overpriced, some are underpriced. You’ve got to know your market in the end, when it comes to housing, but the overall economy really doesn’t look as bad as some people want to tell you it will be.

Dave Meyer:
I’m so glad you brought this up, Kathy, because I think that there is this overwhelming media narrative that there’s going to be a recession, and I think that is very unclear still. Economists, I just saw this poll by Bloomberg that said, I think it’s like 65% of economists think there’s going to be recession. So two out of three, that’s not a sure thing.
Goldman Sachs is the first bank that just upwardly revised their forecast. So, now they’re feeling more optimistic. They just said there’s going to be no recession in 2023. So, there’s some really interesting stuff here. The labor market is holding up surprisingly well. We just saw that GDP grew almost 3% in the fourth quarter. There’s interesting stuff here.
But I do want to say, that for the housing market in terms of appreciation and prices, narrowly avoiding a recession could be the thing that pushes housing prices down further, because that’s probably the only scenario I see where mortgage rates actually go up from where they are right now. Right?
Because if there’s a recession, that pushes down mortgage rates, and the only way I think mortgage rates go up is if the economy, if the yield curve kind of normalizes, and bond yields go up, and then we start to see mortgage rates closer to seven again. So, I don’t think they’re going to be crazy, but it’s just interesting that the overall economy doing well might be the thing that makes the housing market do worse.

Kathy:
Well, it wasn’t saying that the economy’s going to be robust, or again, growing. Normally you’d want to see a two or 3%, or 4% growth, and they’re saying maybe a 0.5% to 1%. So, I’m kind of still in the camp that mortgage rates are going to decline this year, based on the fact that the economy is slowing.
But this is, again, these are the headlines people see is, “Oh, the economy is down,” but oftentimes what they’re not seeing is, it’s the rate of growth that’s slowing. And that’s the same with housing prices. Like, “Oh, it’s down.” Yeah, the rate of growth is down, and that’s good compared to last year. So, again, read articles fully, because the headlines are meant to scare you, and unfortunately, too many people only read the headline.

James:
Does anyone else think that this is more of a slow squeeze, rather than a… It kind of had its jolt, now it’s like this slow squeeze that we’re going to be in for the next 12 to 24 months, but also, this slow squeeze could actually make rents go through the roof. As housing is just kind of out of reach, because if the economy’s not growing rapidly, that’s what we also saw. It wasn’t just rates, of why the housing market exploded. That was a huge portion of it, but it was also stock growth, investment growth, where access to liquidity was through the roof for people.
People were just printing money, and they could put money down. It’s like, “Oh, the house is up at 200 grand. Well, I’ll just put that down as by down payment.” And so the liquidity’s been squeezed, and so, right now, the cost of housing and the rent, it’s still a way out of whack. And so, I’m actually really starting to dig into some of these rental markets like, “Hey, I still see… Whereas I thought it was going to be stagnant, I’m actually starting to think that there could be some growth in some certain neighborhoods for sure.” Because the cost to own is just so out of whack still, and the slow squeeze is just going to make it harder to absorb that. Things will sell for pricing, but it’s going to be slower. So, in my opinion, rents are going to climb at that point.

Dave Meyer:
Interesting. Just because in markets, especially like in Seattle, just does not make sense financially to buy a house.

James:
No. Or like in Newport Beach. I mean, my rent payment’s a third of what my mortgage payment would be.

Dave Meyer:
Wow.

James:
No, it’s My rent payment is 50% less than my mortgage payment, if I put 50% down.

Dave Meyer:
What? That’s crazy.

James:
Oh, it’s crazy.

Dave Meyer:
Wow.

James:
I’m like, “It doesn’t make any sense to me. I’ll go buy an apartment building instead.” I don’t know. It just doesn’t… But yeah, so I could see some growth in that sector. The slow squeeze will actually, I think, get runway on the rents.

Dave Meyer:
All right. Well, I think that’s great advice. Don’t assume, just because people are saying that there’s a recession, and it’s a foregone conclusion that that is true. It’s actually a much more complicated, and nuanced economic situation, and that’s why there’s not really a real definition of recession. We’re just in this gray area.
I think Mark Sandy, the guy at Moody’s called it like a slow session. It’s like, it’s just going to be slow, and the economy’s going to be lame, but it’s not actually going to go backwards. So, there’s some nuance to it, and listen to shows like this, so you can understand it.
All right. Well, thank you all for being here. This was a lot of fun to have everyone back together. If you guys enjoyed this show, we would really appreciate some reviews. We get tens of thousands of people listening every week, but we only get like one review a week. All it takes is what? Five seconds. Go, give us a five star review on Spotify, or Apple. We really appreciate it. If you enjoy this type of show, and this type of content, it would mean a whole lot to us. Thank you all for listening. We’ll see you next time for On The Market.
On The Market is created by me, Dave Meyer and Kailyn Bennett, produced by Kailyn Bennett, editing by Joel Esparza, and Onyx Media, researched by Pooja Jindal, and a big thanks to the entire Bigger Pockets team. The content on the show On the Market are opinions only. All listeners should independently verify data points, opinions, and investment strategies.

By Nilay Mehrotra, founder and CEO at Kindly (YC W22).

The stock market peaked in February 2020 before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. As many of us know, the pandemic ended up having a significant impact on the world economy, leading to unprecedented volatility and uncertainty that lingers to this day. It is undeniable that a few key trends and developments have emerged as a result.

One of the ways in which the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted the stock market is through dramatic fluctuations in stock prices. Despite best efforts, it has been difficult time to predict market trends.

My company was one of many that had to leverage its online presence and adapt to the changes in the stock market during the pandemic. By pivoting to offering online consultations, home delivery of supplements and at-home diagnostics, we were able to continue serving customers and generating revenue. This focus on online services can help you weather a stock market dip and reach your revenue targets.

Background On Covid’s Effects

The S&P 500 index, which is widely regarded as a benchmark for the overall performance of the stock market, fell more than 34% between its peak in February 2020 and its low point in March 2020. The Economic Times of India reports that traders are now losing hope after suffering a year of rolling losses and a situation that could end up worse than the economic climate of 1977.

When governments and central banks worldwide took steps to support their economies, including through the implementation of massive stimulus packages, stock prices began to recover. The S&P 500 index eventually recovered much of its lost ground, and by the end of 2020, it had reached new all-time highs only to slip into losses in the current year.

Effect On Various Industries

Despite the overall recovery, Covid-19 has also led to significant sectoral shifts in the stock market. Some industries, such as healthcare, technology and e-commerce, have thrived during the pandemic as consumer behavior was altered and more people turned to online pharmacies, home-based diagnostics and online shopping over traditional stores. As a result, the stock prices of companies in these sectors have soared.

On the other hand, industries that have been hit hard by lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions, such as travel, hospitality and retail, have seen their stock prices suffer. Many companies in these sectors have been forced to lay off a vast number of their workforce, while others went bankrupt, leading to further declines in stock prices.

Stock Culture And ‘Meme Stocks’

There have also been major changes in the way that stocks are traded. In the early stages of the pandemic, as markets became increasingly volatile, some investors turned to “safe haven” assets. This shift in investor sentiment also contributed to the decline in stock prices, yet in many respects, these safe havens didn’t provide investors with the buffer against beat-up securities that they expected.

However, it goes without saying that as the pandemic dragged on, investors have become more comfortable with the idea of a “new normal.” In particular, the popularity of “meme stocks,” or stocks that have gained attention on social media platforms such as Reddit, surged. This trend was partly fueled by retail investors who were attracted to the stock market to try to make money during the pandemic. It is now being said that meme stocks are soaring again.

In addition to these trends, there have been some critical changes in the way that companies communicate with investors. Since more executives and leaders work remotely now, many earnings calls and other investor relations events have moved online. This has made it easier for investors to access information about the performance of the companies that they have invested their money, time and effort in. It has also led to some challenges, though, including technical difficulties and, in some cases, lost nuances from a lack of in-person interaction.

Effect On Daily Business

Transformations in the stock market affect daily business dealings through changes in access to funding, consumer behavior and competition. As already described on a larger scale, it also makes forecasting more difficult.

To mitigate these impacts, I believe companies should monitor the market, diversify revenue streams and focus on building trust with their customers, partners and employees. It is more important than ever to find ways to build resilience and adaptability and to show how you are building these things with shareholders as your company responds to inevitable stock market changes.

During times like this, business leaders must also focus on maintaining a strong financial position. This may include implementing cost-saving measures, diversifying revenue streams and investing in new technologies. Building a strong, resilient and adaptive culture will help you face the challenges and uncertainty of today’s stock market.

Overall, it is undeniable that the Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the stock market. It has led to unprecedented volatility and changes in the way that stocks are traded across the globe. The past few years have certainly been a wake-up call for anyone who was conditioned to the success strategy of buying in the dip and selling in the rip. As the world continues to grapple with the pandemic and its economic impact, it is likely that we will witness the stock market continue to be affected in a variety of ways.

Before the pandemic, co-living as a housing solution was already gaining popularity as urbanization caused rents to rise in major cities. Now, the concept of living in accommodations with communal spaces is making a comeback after the pandemic left a rental affordability crisis and loneliness epidemic in its wake.  

Early this year, the largest co-living operator in North America, Common, announced a merger with Habyt, the largest co-living operator for Europe and Asia. The result is a global leader in co-living that will operate 30,000 units worldwide, many of them co-living spaces. It is estimated that there were 74,000 total co-living bedrooms either for-rent or in development in the U.S. in 2022. At the end of 2019, real estate investment firm CBRE found that there were about 5,000 beds in only about 150 co-living communities around the country. It’s a rapidly accelerating trend, and research shows it may have staying power.

What Is Co-Living? 

Co-living has always been a way to save money on rent—groups of friends, especially young single people, often rent shared spaces to save money on their monthly housing costs. But modern co-living spaces are different. Buildings constructed or renovated with the intent of unrelated individuals sharing the same living space often come with top-of-the-line amenities. Think of higher-end decor and furnishings, fitness and yoga studios, expansive co-working areas, and perks like cleaning services and high-speed WiFi. People typically live in individual, furnished bedrooms but share common areas like kitchens, bathrooms, laundry facilities, and living areas. 

There are variations in how these spaces are operated. Some companies, like Outsite, use a membership model, where digital nomads can book spaces for as few as three nights. Others, like Bungalow, work as a tech platform that connects roommates seeking housing in major cities and subleases homes to them. Companies like Common offers a combination of private units with co-working spaces and shared units with private bedrooms. 

The rising popularity of co-living spaces has also created a market for co-owned units. For example, the Co-Own Co. in Denver allows homebuyers to purchase a share of a unit with a private bedroom and bathroom. It’s a way for individuals to start building equity for a fraction of the typical cost of buying a home in the city. Some developers are also applying the co-living concept to single-family homeownership by building communities with a common house and other amenities and providing programming designed to foster community. 

A Solution to Two Distinct Problems

Skyrocketing rents 

The rent-to-income ratio in the U.S. is now 30%, an increase from 27.2% in 2019. In some cities, the problem is far worse—in New York, the ratio is 68.5%, and in Miami, it’s 41.6%. High rents are making it difficult for residents to afford elevated prices on gas and groceries and to stash away enough savings to hope for homeownership. 

The surge in rental prices, which hit 17.1% year-over-year growth at its peak in February of 2022, was mostly due to limited inventory and high demand for more space during the pandemic. In some pandemic boomtowns, such as Austin, Texas, rents more than doubled within a year. 

The rental market is starting to cool—national average asking rents are declining, according to Zillow. Multifamily inventory is forecasted to increase in 2023 as well. But rents remain elevated at 8.4% higher when compared to the same time last year, and apartment homes are still out of reach for many residents of urban areas. In 2022, there were 16% more chronically homeless individuals than there were in 2020. Since limited space relative to the number of residents seeking apartments is a significant part of the problem, co-living is a natural solution. 

Even before the pandemic, local governments were examining the prospect of shared living spaces as a potential fix for unaffordable rents. Through SharedNYC, New York City’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development selected three proposals for shared housing developments with various models designed to provide housing to low-income residents. And in San Jose, California, lawmakers adjusted the local zoning code to include co-living, allowing a new development with 800 units to begin construction. 

For decades in the U.S., boarding houses prevented homelessness for low-income urban workers. In the 1960s, it’s estimated that there were about 2 million “single room occupancy” units, similar in concept to modern co-living units. The National Alliance to End Homelessness sees the return of shared housing as a solution that would end homelessness for most people. Most modern co-living spaces rent for just slightly below market rate, but there’s an opportunity for multifamily developments that use a co-living model to bring even more affordable units to market. 

The epidemic of loneliness

Renters who choose co-living may get more bang for their buck—luxury apartment amenities at below-market rental prices—but that’s not the primary reason most people rent a modern co-living unit, according to a survey co-organized by IKEA’s research and design lab. Respondents said the best benefit of co-living was the opportunity for social interaction. 

Co-living spaces offer numerous opportunities for community building through both incidental interactions and intentional programming. Digital nomads can take a moment to socialize at the “water cooler,” just like employees who work in offices. Families can get support with child-rearing. Solo seniors can gather for meals. And everyone can have someone to call if they’re injured or need help. There are additional benefits for transplants who may need to move quickly without support—not only does co-living offer easier access to furnished spaces, but it also delivers an instant social circle. Some co-living companies even work to place roommates with common interests. 

That’s kind of a breath of fresh air for the astounding percentage of Americans experiencing “serious loneliness.” A report from the Harvard Graduate School of Education puts the figure at 36% of all Americans, including 51% of mothers with young children and 61% of young adults. Social isolation can increase your risk of several serious health issues and is a risk factor that rivals even smoking when it comes to premature death. Loneliness is correlated with higher rates of anxiety, depression, and even suicide. 

Issues with the Co-Living Model

Some co-living companies have yet to work out the operational kinks. For example, residents of Common’s co-living spaces complained of unsanitary conditions, poor security, hostility among roommates, and poor communication from the support team. Residents of Bungalow properties in New York reported finding strangers in their bedrooms, which were kept unlocked due to local law. They also complained of poor communication and sudden lease terminations, calling the operation a “scam.”

The complaints are drawing the attention from local lawmakers, who could respond by cracking down on this form of rental housing rather than relaxing regulations to make it more viable. For example, allowing locks on individually-rented bedrooms in New York might solve the problem in part, but if tenant complaints point to other unfair practices, the co-living model might be banned in the city altogether. 

But in some cities, like Philadelphia and Minneapolis, lawmakers are embracing the idea of “single room occupancy” rentals, bringing legislation to allow the units in multifamily and commercial zones. 

A New Asset Class for Investors

Co-living isn’t just a solution for loneliness and unaffordable rents. It’s also an emerging asset class for real estate investors. Despite some problems with the co-living business model, co-living companies generally report the higher rental income per square foot than traditional rental models. For example, in New York, earnings for co-living units are reported to be 40% to 50% higher than traditional apartment rents. 

A report from students at MIT also suggests that co-living buildings should be more resilient during an economic downturn than traditional multifamily housing. Indeed, during the COVID-19 pandemic, co-living spaces continued to earn a 23.2% premium per square foot over rents per square foot for traditional studio apartments in comparable markets, according to research from real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield. 

The MIT report also indicates that co-living is on the verge of becoming more widely accepted, both among lawmakers and the general public. Early signs show that co-living will become a “fundamental asset class within residential real estate,” the report states. While the model is still in its infancy and comes with some potential headaches, it may become a welcome alternative to traditional long-term multifamily rentals for some investors, especially in urban areas where housing prices are making it more difficult to yield positive cash flow.

New! The State of Real Estate Investing 2023

After years of unprecedented growth, the housing market has shifted course and has entered a correction. Now is your time to take advantage. Download the 2023 State of Real Estate Investing report written by Dave Meyer, to find out which strategies and tactics will profit in 2023. 

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

CNBC’s Robert Frank joins ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss why New York rents are remaining high even as rates in the rest of the U.S. drop, increases in the flow of people moving into New York City and the housing deficit there.

With advanced technology like virtual reality (VR), it can sometimes be difficult to fathom all the potential applications it can have in the business world. However, nearly every day there seems to be new and exciting innovations in the VR space that can impact both businesses and their customers.

Below, several members of Young Entrepreneur Council discuss some of the cool, unique ways they’ve seen virtual reality being used recently—from immersive training experiences to global collaboration—and how these use cases might inspire any entrepreneur to leverage virtual reality for their own business.

1. For Mental Health And Wellness

Virtual reality has been slowly making its way into the mental health and wellness sector. Recently, employers investing in the mental health of their employees have been in the spotlight as well. There are businesses today using VR to help people with anxiety, PTSD, depression and other mental health ailments. Through this type of therapy, people can work through trauma and train their minds by utilizing guided VR meditation. Businesses often offer benefits to aid in their employees’ physical health; however, I’m sure all places of work would be able to utilize these kinds of mental health benefits. – John Hall, Calendar

2. For Immersive, Interactive Training Experiences

Using virtual reality to train first responders is one of the most interesting use cases I’ve seen for virtual reality. It’s hard to mimic a situation where you’re being put in harm’s way. Virtual reality allows you to adjust a simulation in ways that you may not be able to in real life. Plus, it is less dangerous than other methods of training. Organizations issuing the training are then able to capture relevant data about the progress of their candidates and make more informed training decisions. – Michael Fellows, Solidity Beginner

3. For Collaboration On A Global Scale

The pandemic has ushered in a new era of digital events, conferences, training and meetings. With innovative VR platforms and applications such as meetingRoom, it is now possible to bridge time zones and collaborate with global clients or teams just like you were all together in the same room. Presenters can give presentations in a simulated environment, which can be helpful in training or coaching sessions with clients. The capacity to hop on a call with someone in London and collaborate as though I am in the same room opens doors for better training with my coaching and digital marketing clients, not to mention better workflow with our global team. VR could also be used for team-building exercises, market research, sales presentations and product demonstrations. – Tonika Bruce, Lead Nicely, Inc.

4. For An Enhanced E-Commerce Experience

Virtual reality is transforming the way customers explore and compare products. Some e-commerce shops today are utilizing this technology to allow their shoppers to get a better sense of what the product will be like in person by exploring it virtually first. This technology presents a valuable opportunity for brands to create an even more rewarding, one-of-a-kind experience for their customers. In addition to enhancing their experience, it also has the potential to significantly reduce the costs of more traditional methods. For example, the more shoppers can take a look and explore a product before purchasing it, the less likely they will be dissatisfied, need customer service and initiate a return. – Blair Thomas, eMerchantBroker

5. For More Enticing Marketing Efforts

The most popular way to market tourist sites is through videos showcasing the beauty of the areas. Companies that use VR take the experience to the next level by giving potential visitors the chance to visit a place virtually. The excitement of the people treading on white-sand beaches or walking around magnificent structures is incredible. It’s astonishing that not all travel and tour companies are doing this now. Lowe’s too is utilizing VR well with the Holoroom How To experience. More people prefer DIY home improvement projects to save money and personalize designs. The AR/VR experience at Lowe’s gives DIY homeowners the confidence to start a project. There is so much potential in VR in marketing that it’s surprising it isn’t mainstream yet. – Bryce Welker, Big 4 Accounting Firms

6. For Bringing Fantastic Experiences To Life

The Franklin Institute and other Philadelphia museums allow visitors to immerse themselves in historical settings using virtual reality. A child can explore a shipwreck underwater without ever getting wet, or walk around Impressionist art exhibits. They will engage their senses and remember the experience. Entrepreneurs, especially those working with children, could use VR to bring fantastic experiences to life. When you create such an experience, you also build positive associations within the brain and customers will remember your personal branding. For example, if you are selling a B2B service about team building, you can use VR with remote team members so they can engage better than they would on a video call. You have multiple possibilities for engagement. – Duran Inci, Optimum7

7. For Speeding Up The Sales Process

One of the coolest and most unique ways I have seen virtual reality used recently is by a company that makes manufacturing and material processing equipment. A significant challenge this company faced was the extremely long lead times their clients encountered during the sales process. This was due to the complex nature of the quotation process, not to mention the inability to accurately demonstrate the end product to the decision makers. To overcome these challenges and drastically reduce the length of their sales cycles, the company chose to leverage virtual reality software displayed on tablets. With this software, they could demonstrate their products to clients remotely and quickly create configurations for quotes, cutting sales cycle times dramatically. – Richard Fong, Trustable Tech

Another day, another contradictory economic data point. For the last several months, the U.S. economy has been throwing off confusing and often conflicting signals about what is to come. Some indicators show that the U.S. economy is performing relatively well, while others are flashing ominous signs of a recession. So which is it? Is the U.S. heading towards a recession in 2023, or can the Federal Reserve actually pull off the “soft landing” it has been aiming for?

For most of the last year, I have been firmly in the “there will be a recession” camp, and I haven’t necessarily changed my mind, but it’s impossible to ignore some of the better-than-expected economic data that has been released recently. I am not saying a soft landing will happen, but I do think it’s more likely now than it was just a few months ago. Below, I will provide evidence for and against a recession, and you can decide for yourself what you think will happen.

The Case for a Recession

Rising interest rates

Any conversation about a recession has to start with the Fed’s actions to raise interest rates. Since March, the federal funds rate has risen from near zero, to about 4.5%, in an effort to combat rampant inflation. Rising interest rates make it more expensive to borrow, which can reduce borrowing, spending, and investment. It can take months, or even years, for the economic cooling effects of rising rates to take effect, and it’s very likely we have not fully felt the impact of rate hikes that happened months ago—let alone the fact that they are still going on.

That said, there are already signs that economic activity is slowing down. Notably, consumer spending has been down for the last two months.

Declining consumer spending and sentiment

Consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy, as it makes up roughly 70% of the gross domestic product (GDP). After years of high inflation, a bad year for the stock market in 2022, and a lot of economic pessimism, it seems like Americans are cutting back on spending and bracing for difficult times ahead. 

It’s worth mentioning that although consumer sentiment has rebounded slightly from summer 2022 lows, it is still extremely low. Meaning it’s not looking likely consumer spending will pick up anytime soon.

A puzzling labor market

The labor market is a puzzle right now, but there have been some major high-profile layoffs over the last several months. The tech sector has been hit particularly hard with companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Spotify, and many more laying off large swaths of highly paid employees. We’re also seeing layoffs in some financial and professional service sectors. 

While these layoffs haven’t impacted the unemployment rate just yet, there is a general sense that this is just the tip of the iceberg, and more layoffs are forthcoming. Additionally, continuing unemployment claims (those who have been looking for work for a while) have ticked up modestly of late, indicating that it’s taking laid-off workers longer to find a new job. Of course, any significant increases in the unemployment rate would greatly increase the chances of a recession. 

An inverted yield curve

Lastly, there is the yield curve, one of the most reliable predictors of a recession over the last 40 years. It predicted all but one recession accurately over that time. An inverted yield curve happens when long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds yield higher than short-dated bonds. 

This is unusual because long-dated bonds usually offer higher yields due to the higher risk of inflation and default over a long period. The yield curve only inverts when investors are betting on a decline in long-term interest rates (due to an economic slowdown). We all know the Fed is currently raising interest rates, but the yield curve tells us that investors are betting that there will be a recession and the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates. 

There are plenty of other economic signals that indicate a recession, but these are some of the clearest and most reliable datasets we have. 

The Case for a Soft Landing

For months now, the Federal Reserve has been telling us that they are aiming for and believe a “soft landing” is possible. A soft landing basically means that the economy would cool off sufficiently to reduce inflation but not enough to cause a recession. As I wrote above, I thought this was pretty far-fetched a few months ago, but some data suggests a soft landing is still feasible. 

Declining inflation

First and foremost, inflation is declining, as I’ve written about extensively. It’s still very high (last reading at 6.4% year over year), but the downward trend is clear, and the monthly readings have been very encouraging of late. 

Since the primary recessionary pressures on the economy are inflation and the Fed’s actions to tame inflation, any reduction in the inflation rate is positive news for the economy. If the Fed stops raising rates, it will remove a lot of uncertainty from the economy, which could help it stabilize. 

A confusing but resilient labor market

The second encouraging factor is the labor market. Yes, I know I wrote that the labor market is showing signs of recession, but it’s all showing signs of resilience. It’s very confusing. Despite the high-profile layoffs that are making headlines, there are signs the labor market is doing quite well. After rising over the summer, the number of initial jobless claims (people who claim unemployment benefits for the first time) has been ticking down over the last couple of weeks. 

There are still over 10.5 million job openings in the U.S., which far outnumbers job seekers. As a result, the unemployment rate remains extremely low, at 3.5% (as of December 2022). Of course, there is a big question of whether the open jobs line up with the job seekers, and as I mentioned above, more layoffs could be around the corner. But whichever way you look at it, the labor market has shown tremendous resilience up to this point. 

GDP growth

Lastly, GDP is growing, even in inflation-adjusted terms. Real GDP grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q4, which is basically the antithesis of a recession. The most commonly accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline (even though that’s not technically how recessions are determined). By that measure, the U.S. is definitely not in a recession. 

It’s worth noting that most economists calling for a recession in 2023 are saying it will come in the second half of the year, so GDP growth in Q4 of 2022 is not exactly surprising. That said, GDP growth is a good sign for the economy, in my opinion.

What Do The Experts Say? 

Despite some relatively good economic news of late, over 70% of surveyed economists still believe a recession will occur, according to a Bloomberg poll. Every economist does have a different opinion. Still, the general consensus of those who believe there will be a recession is that we haven’t yet felt the full impact of high interest rates. We’ll see further declines in consumer spending and higher unemployment throughout 2023. 

That said, even some detractors admit that a soft landing is feasible. Jason Draho, an economist and Head of Asset Allocation Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, recently said, “The possibility of getting a soft landing is greater than the market believes. Inflation has now come down faster than some recently expected, and the labor market has held up better than expected.”

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics recently coined the term “slowcession” to describe what he thinks will happen: a slowing of the economy to a near halt, but without actually going backward. 

What Does This All Mean? 

Of course, no one knows for sure what will happen over the coming year, but I think it’s increasingly likely that we will see a relatively modest outcome—either a soft landing with very minimal growth or a recession that isn’t too deep. We often like to look at things in black and white and say that it’s “recession or not,” when in reality, there are many shades of gray. 

It’s likely we will land in a shade of gray. 

Of course, things could change. There are many geopolitical risks, and if the labor market truly breaks or the stock market dives even further from here, there could be a deep recession. 

For real estate investors, it’s important to know that economic slowdowns tend to come with lower mortgage rates. So while no one should be rooting for a recession, there is an interesting dynamic at play for real estate investors. 

It’s often said that housing is “first in and first out” in a recession. Because real estate is a highly leveraged asset, during a rising interest rate environment, housing activity tends to slow down first. Housing makes up about 16% of GDP, so when housing slows, it can pull the rest of the economy into a recession. Once the economy is in a recession, interest rates tend to fall, making mortgages cheaper, and houses more affordable. This can lead to an uptick in buying among homeowners and real estate investors, and that uptick in housing activity can help pull the rest of the economy out of a recession. First one in, first one out. 

We’re already starting to see this in some ways. Housing has slowed down over the last couple of months. Mortgage rates are down from where they were in November, but if we see a recession, they could come down even more. Combined with falling housing prices, this could create great buying opportunities that could pull the economy out of the recession. 

Of course, this is just one scenario, but it’s the one I see as the most likely at this point.

More from BiggerPockets: 2023 State of Real Estate Investing Report

After years of unprecedented growth, the housing market has shifted course and has entered a correction. Now is your time to take advantage. Download the 2023 State of Real Estate Investing report written by Dave Meyer, to find out which strategies and tactics will profit in 2023. 

What do you think will happen in 2023? Do you think we’ll see a soft landing? A recession? Or something in the middle. Let me know in the comments below. 

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

By Subbu Viswanathan, CEO of Disprz, an enterprise skills acceleration platform, 3-time tech entrepreneur, former McKinsey consultant, ITT and ISB alumni.

Conducting corporate learning with a generic approach often fails to capture the learner’s interest. One of the best ways to motivate employee learning is by embracing personalization. A personalized learning approach gives dedicated attention to employees’ personal growth to ensure development and career advancement.

Recent research found that “93% of high-performing organizations agreed personalized learning supports an employee in reaching professional goals more efficiently.” Before we see how to develop a personalized learning strategy, let’s get to the basics and understand what this learning and development (L&D) technique really is.

What Is Personalized Learning?

Personalized learning is an employee-centric L&D approach that tailors training to an individual’s job role, needs and interests. This smart L&D strategy aligns skilling with a learner’s skill gaps and career path.

In a world where everything from e-commerce platforms to movie streaming apps is personalized, providing the same “just for me” experience is pivotal to grabbing employees’ attention. Making personalized learning a part of your L&D strategy can be very beneficial for your organization. Those potential benefits include:

1. Boosting employee engagement

2. Improving knowledge retention

3. Maintaining a competitive edge

4. Boosting career development

5. Increasing employee retention

5 Steps To Develop A Personalized Learning Experience

Many companies, like Netflix and Amazon, have tapped into personalization to enhance user experience. But how can L&D leaders like you implement personalization for employee learning? Here are five steps to develop a personalized learning strategy for your organization.

1. Set Learning And Business Goals

Before you commence your personalized learning journey, it is crucial to set learning and business goals that act as a benchmark to measure progress. You must be clear about what you want to achieve for a department/role before investing time and effort in creating their personalized learning journey.

To effectively set goals, work with the business heads to understand the objectives for each department and coordinate with the team leads to establish goals for each individual. For instance, a business aims to achieve a 30% increase in revenue in the next year. To link this goal with the teams, you want to set business goals for each department and learning goals for each individual within that department. This can ensure personalized learning efforts are aligned with business outcomes.

2. Create A Skill Inventory

One of the most crucial steps of personalization in learning and development is to bridge the individual skill gaps and improve employee performance. That’s why it is imperative to have a skill inventory that defines the skills needed for each role in your organization. This can give you a bird’s eye view into what skills matter for different roles in your organization.

Here are a few steps to building a skill inventory.

• Based on industry standards, list the skills for every role.

• While creating the list, consider your business objectives, variety of projects and key areas of the specific role.

• Categorize them into technical, functional and leadership skills.

• Use a number scale to grade every skill level. For example:

1. Novice

2. Advanced Beginner

3. Competent

4. Proficient

5. Expert

• Manually perform the skill research, or leverage advanced learning technology, like a Learning Experience Platform (disclosure: my company offers this product), that can assist you in identifying and benchmarking skills for each role.

3. Assess Employee Skill Gaps

Assess each employee’s skill level using your previously created skill inventory to detect gaps that are affecting performance. Through self or manager assessment, find out the grade for every skill. This can help you determine which skills are missing and which need to be strengthened. For instance, a bank associate could be graded three on a one-to-five scale for account management skills.

Once you have a grade for every role, connect with the team lead and guide them to have a one-to-one conversation with the employees to give them a visual representation of both the existing capabilities with the skill score and the details of the required skills.

Encourage the team lead to collect information about the employee’s needs, aspirations and goals they want to achieve. This data can help you in mapping out a personalized learning journey that can be embedded into the employee’s flow of work.

4. Tap Managers In The Learning Process

Managers have a wealth of information about their teams. This makes them an often-untapped resource for developing personalized learning journeys. It is important to gain the cooperation and participation of the manager to be successful.

As per LinkedIn’s Report, 49% of talent developers globally reported that “getting managers to make learning a priority for their teams” is one of the top challenges they encounter.

Coordinate with managers and bring them into the flow of learning. Take their input on employees’ strengths and weaknesses. With their help, identify the right courses for creating impactful learning programs that employees would willingly complete to enhance their skills. Unlocking employees’ potential and designing personalized journeys that facilitate career progression can be much easier with their help.

5. Identify The Right Technology To Personalize The Learning Experience

To simplify the learning process and make it more accessible and engaging, you can leverage personalized learning technology, like a Learning Experience Platform (LXP). An LXP links skilling and business impact by benchmarking where individuals stand and tracking their skilling progress—allowing you to make real-time amendments to the learning approach.

The market is flooded with many learning technologies. So how do you determine the right tool for your business? Below are the top three features I recommend keeping an eye out for when choosing learning tech:

1. Capable of identifying and benchmarking role-based skills

2. Includes abundant assessments to evaluate current employee readiness

3. Able to auto-generate a personalized pathway

Personalized learning is an engaging experience that allows employees with a growth mindset to enhance their skills. To fulfill this expectation, L&D professionals should develop and implement a personalized learning strategy by setting the right goals, assessing the company skill gaps, creating a skill inventory, incorporating the right technology and ensuring the manager’s buy-in to drive maximum impact. By following these steps, your employees can receive a personalized learning experience that captures their interest and bridges their skill gaps.

David:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show 724.
If you don’t learn lead, you never get to scale. You will always be managing the people that you have leveraged. You will have a high paying enterprise that is probably doing very well financially, but you are still very much involved in. When you get to leadership, you actually are able to influence large amounts of people over shorter amounts of time. You can scale to something like what Chick-fil-A has or you can scale to something like what Ken McElroy has with his real estate portfolio. You can get really good at whatever it is you’re doing and do it and mass if you can learn the skill of leadership.
What’s going on everyone? This is David Greene, your host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast here with a special episode for you today where I get to talk more. In today’s episode, Rob is actually interviewing me about scaling a business. Rob, I’m going to hand it over to you.

Rob:
That’s right. We interview you, thy David Greene, the titular host of the BiggerPockets podcast. Man, I’m excited. Like I said, the roles are reverse. I got this pseudo power, I had all this pressure to succeed. But I’m excited, dude. This was a really good episode where I feel this is a masterclass on scaling. We talk about so many good things for people that are really at that level where I guess they can’t get to that next level, they can’t expand their portfolio and we really dig through a lot of the concepts that might help people do that, right? We talk about your three dimensions of success, which break down to learning how to do your job, leveraging other people and leading. This is really, to me, the golden nugget of the day. So I’m excited for people’s mind to be unlocked on air today. What was some of your favorite parts?

David:
Well, everyone listening to a podcast like this, you and I, because we listen to our own shows, the goal is to make more money, have more success, have a better life than what we have right now. It’s very simple. A lot of us have that drive to get there, but we don’t have a direction of understanding how to do it. Or what’s even worse, we don’t understand the factors that are working against us in trying to accomplish it, which just leads to frustration and shame and guilt and this feeling like you could be doing more. So in today’s show, we’re really trying to get deeper into what stops people from having more success as well as layout a clearer path of step one, step two, step three, what it takes to start learning something and then what the next step is and then the next step is. Some of my favorite parts was your commentary. I thought you were very funny today and you did a very good job getting stuff out of me that other people don’t.

Rob:
That’s right, man. Well, it’s always really fun to get into your mind because I’m always exposing how unorganized and not where I want to be. So this is a very inspirational episode. So we’ll get into it here, but before we do, today’s quick, quick, quick tip is brought to you by David Greene.

David:
Today’s quick tip is, if you’re having a hard time figuring out why you’re not making more progress in real estate investing, in business, in anything, it might be because you’re taking the wrong path. Start asking yourself the question of what feels heavy and what feels light. Typically the things in life that we are good at, that we have skills, that fate has blessed us with doing feel light, we don’t mind doing them. And the stuff that we are not good at that we should be leveraging out to other people feels heavy and we can’t stand it. I noticed this is often the case with very seemingly insignificant tasks that I just put off forever because I hate them. Those are the first things that should be leveraged out. Rob, what do you think?

Rob:
I got a bonus quick, quick, quick tip, and that is to pre-order your newest book, David, SCALE. If you pre-order it before February 16th, you’ll actually be entered to win one of 10 seats on a coaching call with you, David Greene, right?

David:
That is right. And a little bonus there, if you order all three of your books and the Top-Producing Agent’s series SOLD, SKILL, and SCALE on the BiggerPockets bookstore, you’ll also get a free month of your exclusive Wealth building Mastermind, which is just like the craziest deal of all times. So if you guys want to be entered in to get all those good bonuses, head over to biggerpockets.com/scale right now and use code SCALE724 for 10% off of checkout. Remember, that’s SCALE724. And if you stick it around until the very end of the episode, you’ll understand why we chose that promo code.
Very good. Rob, you’re getting much better at these intros.

Rob:
It’s called a callback. I read it on Wikipedia. I think it’s supposed to be important.

David:
All right, well let’s get into it.

Rob:
David Greene, you have written five books with nearly 500,000 copies sold. That’s a lot of investors and agents here helping. You’re also the titular host of the BiggerPockets podcast, the biggest real estate podcast in the world. We know you, but David, who are you and why are you here today?

David:
Well, that’s the first time I’ve ever been called titular, I can say that. Well done.

Rob:
I’m pretty sure I used that correctly. I honestly don’t know.

David:
I mean it sounded intriguing at least. People are Googling right now, like how do you spell that and what does that mean. We should let you host more often. You’re going to come out big words like this.

Rob:
That’s my SAT word of the day right there.

David:
Who am I? I am much more like our average listener than I am like your average influencer. So I was a blue collar guy. I started working in restaurants when I was young. I went to college, didn’t know what I wanted to do, got a psychology degree. My very last year in college, I switched to a criminal justice minor, ended up getting into law enforcement. Did that for a while. Kind of saw how negative the relationship between law enforcement and the public was going. Realized I didn’t want to do that until I was 50. Started investing in real estate.
I had just been really good at saving money for a long time and then I started learning how to invest that money. Caught a wave of inflation that really helped with rising rents and increasing property values. Learned strategies like the BRRRR method and long distance real estate investing. Built myself some wealth, became a millionaire through real estate and didn’t even know it until I was around like 30 years old when I actually started to track my net worth and then said, “Okay, this was really hard to figure all this out. Let me start writing books for other people to teach them how to do it.” So I got out of law enforcement, became a real estate agent, learned the hard way how to just make money being an agent at all. Then I became a top producing agent. So I was the top in the office and I was one of the top in the country. And then I built a team to take over the agent business I had called the David Greene team and I wrote three books for BiggerPockets on those.
So I’ve written SOLD, SKILL, and now this newest book, SCALE, which is teaching real estate agents how to be good at their job. And then we mentioned the BRRRR book and Long-Distance Real Estate Investing.

Rob:
I’m glad you clarified that because initially we were talking about I thought this book SCALE was about how to scale a fish and turns out not that I was like, “Wow, that’s a big pivot, David.”

David:
You know what’s funny, a big part of the SCALE format is comparing fish, catching the fish, cleaning actually within business. That is an analogy I rely on heavily in the book. So it’s funny that you came up with that.

Rob:
So I’m not completely off. We’ll, we’ll get to that analogy a little bit later because I’ve heard you talk about it. That’s always a really good one. But tell us, how does it fit in with your other two books? Because you have written a couple of books here. Is this sort of the final one? Is there more in the series? Is this the culmination of your grand catalog of books?

David:
Not of books, but for the top producer series with BiggerPockets that was written for real estate agents it is. So the dirty secret in my opinion, subjectively speaking in real estate sales, is that most agents are terrible. I don’t think it’s that big of a secret because you hardly ever find a person who says, “My agent crushed it.” Even the best agents, you’re frustrated the whole time. Just it’s hard to be good at it. People don’t understand what the industry is like as a real estate agent. It’s not really architected or engineered to be beneficial for both parties. So it turns into a much more adversarial relationship with the investors or the clients and the real estate agents that it should be.
So the book SOLD was written just to teach agents what I wish that when I had had a broker that would’ve told me. No one tells you how to start a business, how to work a database, what scripts to use, what your job is. They don’t tell you how to use the MLS, they don’t explain anything. Let me tell you how to open a lockbox, you got to figure it all out. So SOLD is written just for the new agents who aren’t making money and don’t know why. That’s just to get you profitable.
SKILL was written for the agent who knows how to be an agent but wants to become elite. They want to be a top producer, they want to make good money. No one becomes an agent to just make average money. You just keep your W2 job if that was the case. So SKILL is all about excelling at your job, delivering a really good listing presentation, having a buyer’s presentation, how to talk to clients, understanding what I call the sales funnel, which is the five steps of taking a person and leading them down a process of becoming a lead and then a client, and then an escrow and then a closing, and the actual work you’re doing in between every step to just give some direction and doing really well.
And then SCALE was written for the person who wants to take a job they’ve become very good at and turn it into a business. And at that point, you can either turn it into semi passive income, much like owning investment property. You own a business and other people are doing the work and you are managing that business. Or, scale it huge. Now that I’m not having to actually write the contracts and talk on the phone to the buyers, I can open up expansion teams in different parts of the country. That was probably the most fun book to write because the principles in this apply to not just real estate agents, but to business owners everywhere including real estate investors.

Rob:
Yeah, I’m excited. We’re going to dive into your writing process a little bit and actually ask you a little bit of the nuts and bolts of what it’s like to be such a prolific writer. But before we get into all that, I do want to ask, I know that you are a man of many businesses. You’re a renaissance man of real estate, you got a brokerage, you’ve got an agent team. The book may seem like it’s framed for agents, but knowing you and how you are so prolific with your metaphors, I just wanted to ask, how are we going to tie this to investors who don’t care about scaling their agent business? There are other people that this applies to, I’d imagine, right?

David:
Yes, it’s absolutely true. The reality here is I only learned how to create a real estate agent team out of a job using the principles that I had done with my portfolio. So long before I had ever created a real estate agent business, I had created an investment portfolio that is a form of owning a business. Being a real estate investor is being a business person. You are gaining assets that produce income. You’re trying to control expenses. Instead of looking for clients, you’re looking for properties. You’re constantly leveraging the workout and trying to find a better team. You’re looking for better property managers. You’re looking for better lenders, you’re looking for better loan opportunities. You’re looking for better locations to invest in, for better agents to help you, for better handymen.
So much of our lives, like for you, focusing in short term rentals is controlling expenses and controlling the customer experience and trying to systemize the things that come up a lot without handing complete control over to another human being that can run it into the ground without you seeing it. You could call it a game, you could call it a challenge. There’s different words to use there, but it’s a pattern that pops up in any form of business. If you’re Alex Hormozi and you’re starting gyms, if you’re Rob Abasolo and you’re buying short-term rental properties or running courses to teach people how to do it, or you’re David Greene starting a mortgage company or buying my own rental properties, these patterns reappear over and over and over, and the books are written to help the people who are just starting to get into this to recognize the pattern when it first comes and get a head start on creating a process to systemize these challenges that come up so that you can run a profitable business.

Rob:
Business. Yeah, I think one of the things I’ve learned over the past couple years is that without systems, scaling is effectively impossible. Or I guess, scaling efficiently cannot be done without systems, right?

David:
That’s absolutely true. If you don’t understand how to implement systems, and then the next step is actually make the step forward to fail at it. No one starts a system and immediately has the perfect system on the first try. Nothing in life works that way, but yet that stops a lot of people from doing it because they know they can do it better themselves and if they do it with someone else. If you don’t do that, you never get to the point where you can own more than a handful of rental properties.
So take you as a short-term rental investor, I’m a short-term rental investor. Actually, this is a really good analogy. If you’re someone who starts off like you did Rob and you’re managing them yourself, full-time, you quit your job, you don’t have a family, the ideal situation, how many of those suckers can you effectively manage at one time in a portfolio?

Rob:
Five to 15.

David:
Right? There you go. Depending on the area.

Rob:
How good you are.

David:
Depending the guest is and how good you are, right?

Rob:
Yeah.

David:
But even then, if it’s just you, even 15, if you have no help, no admin help, you just have software and you, it’d be very difficult to manage 15 short-term rentals, coordinating all the cleaners yourself, not having any form of administrative support. To do a good job, you’ll probably capped somewhere at that, like five. A stud could maybe do 15, right? So you cannot scale if you do things yourself.
When I bought mine, I had watched the process that you were going through and that other people had went through, and I just said, “I’m never going to manage these. I’m going to hire a property manager right off the bat to deal with this type of stuff.” And I put a strategy together to accumulate them in a way that I could rely on property management to run it effectively. You can’t just leverage any property to a property manager and trust they’re going to do a good job. The location, the asset type, the type of tenant that’s going to be visiting the property manager themselves, they all go into this.
So I was able to buy about… I have 12 functioning short-term rentals right now that I forget exists most of the time unless I’m talking to the bookkeeper and looking at the numbers right out the gate versus the process that someone else who doesn’t understand business scaling would have to go through. It would maybe take years of managing it themselves, trying to get someone else involved, failing, trying again, buying too many, selling a couple off. It’s this very slow process to get to the point where what they want is financial freedom in a big portfolio.

Rob:
Yeah. Yeah. Well, let’s just dive into a system really fast because I think we say this word a lot. We say systems, processes, and automations quite a bit on the podcast. I think a lot of people probably just who… There’s like two types of people, right? The really organized type A person and then there’s like the creative, everything floats in the ether kind of thing. So for me, when I hear system I freeze up because I’m like, “Ugh.” But it’s really not that complicated of a concept, right? So what exactly is a system as you define it?

David:
A system is made up of two pieces, and I talk about this in SCALE. Everyone gets the first one and then they mess up on the second piece. This is why people have a hard time with systems. The first thing that makes up a system is an order of tasks or a checklist of things that need to be done. It’s that simple. So if I’m selling a house, a system would be a list of all the tasks involved in getting a listing. First I guess it would start with getting the listing presentation ready for the client. And then once the listing agreement is signed, there’s a process of getting the house ready for the market. And then once it’s on the market, there’s a series of tasks for keeping the seller updated and marketing the property to buyers. And then when it goes into escrow, there is a series of tasks involved with completing all the paperwork, negotiating and bringing it to close.
Okay. So there’s like four steps to the system of selling a house. Every single thing in business has a series of repeatable steps. If you owned a restaurant, I could outline for you the system involved with what the cooks are doing to cook the food, who’s ordering the food, the waiters have a process of how they’re supposed to put the order in and make sure it goes to the table and bring the customer their check. It’s a series of tasks that are repeated all the time.
The second piece to a system is what everyone gets wrong. Most of us understand we need to write out all the tasks that are involved in the job. The second part is having a person that can execute it with skill. What I see is people make the task and they hand it to an admin who doesn’t have skill in that area and it all falls apart and they say, “Yeah, systems don’t work.” When you’re the person doing it, you’re usually doing it well, which is why if you have a series of tasks and you then follow them, you’re your own system. In order to scale, you have to take those two pieces and you have to bring other people in to do the job. And that’s what I found the challenge in business has been.
I’m very good at outlying a series of operations that need to be done. I’m very good at anticipating where things will go wrong and even putting training in place to prepare, but it doesn’t matter if I don’t find a person who’s good at accomplishing those tasks. You actually still have to be good at things in life if you want to be successful. And that’s the second part of a system.

Rob:
Yeah, man, you really nailed that on the head. I mean, it’s two things, right? It’s delegation of this kind of written out system you talked about, but it’s also some level of management is still needed to that person because a lot of the times people tend to empower employees too much at the very beginning and they sort of leave. They come back and then they get mad that the employee failed, but there was no oversight to make sure that the system was perfected.

David:
Yeah, and that the person who was working through the system understood the importance of it. So let’s say for you, you own an Airbnb, you’re managing it yourself and you get a customer who’s unhappy because the hot water isn’t coming out of the shower, okay? You are not just thinking your job is to get the hot water turned on. That’s how a person who’s not taking responsibility thinks.
A person who is taking responsibility thinks, “My job is to make the client happy so they leave a good review when they come back. And a part of that is getting the hot water turned on, but that my responsibility is to not just solve a problem or check a box, it is to achieve a result.” And that’s the best way I can describe what responsibility within business looks like. If you take the approach of, “My job is to accomplish a result, to find a cash flowing property, to add equity to a property, to keep a guest happy, to increase rents,” you take a much different approach than when you’re just working off a series of checklists where the client calls and says the hot water’s not working.
Well, you call the handyman, they go out there, they fix a thing, you check the box, you pat yourself on the back and you say, “Hey, I did my job.” But you don’t ever talk to the client, you don’t apologize, you don’t see how they’re feeling, you don’t dig in. And then they leave a one-star review and the employee says, “Well, not my fault. Not my problem. It’s not my house. I did my job.” That is what’s hard about scaling, is you have to have, it’s funny, a system in place to check the people that are working your system, and you have to make sure that their heart is in the right place so that they are perceiving their responsibilities with the same level of responsibility that you as the owner would have.

Rob:
Yeah, so effectively you’re basically saying you want your employees to not look at things so binary, so black and white. There has to be a little bit of, I guess compassion or empathy for the employer or for the owner of that business to make sure, I don’t know, that your vision is being executed correctly, right?

David:
Yeah, they have to care. They have to give a crap would be another way to put it, because the person visiting your Airbnb isn’t going to think, “Well, this was an amazing experience except for the hot water. That’s only chalked up due to one employee that works at the company. I’m not going to punish the owner by leaving a one-star review because of one bad apple.” All they know is they’re not happy and they want to let everybody else know, “Don’t stay in this place because you might have a similar experience.”
A lot of the advice I’m writing about in books like SCALE is for the person working in a company that wants to get ahead, that wants to own their own business someday, or wants to make more money within that business and they don’t understand the power of responsibility. Every business owner out there has given us a hallelujah amen as they’re listening to this, right? Every person who’s an employee might be baffled or confused. So many human beings have come under this delusion that avoiding responsibility is winning. I don’t know that our industry as real estate investors has done much to help. There might have even been… It might hurt it because a lot of the time real estate investing gets sold as the alternative to hard work, the alternative to working for the man and being a slave for someone else. It paints this picture that if you get out of that world and you come into this one, you just buy a couple houses and you’re done, you can do whatever you want. It’s actually the opposite.
Responsibility increases when you take over the asset that you’ve invested your money into. It is more pressure that is on you to perform better at this job. And the best way that people can prepare for making more wealth themselves is to take on additional responsibility where they’re at. It’s kind of like adding more weight to the bar when you’re working out. Building up your strength, learning how the systems work, not just what your job is to do, but why your boss put that system in place, what problem they’re trying to solve. Understanding that will equip you way better when you start building your own portfolio, you start buying your own houses, you got to take the call from the unhappy guest and you realize, “Oh, there’s more to this than just getting that water turned back on.”

Rob:
Sure. Yeah. Well, I think that begs a really important question, right? Obviously knowing your strengths are important, but knowing your weaknesses is probably even more important. So how do you evaluate that as someone that’s looking to scale in the real estate business?

David:
Understanding your weaknesses is the biggest thing. So your weaknesses not only will… We tend to look at that and think, “Well, that’s where I’m going to make mistakes.” That is true, but that’s not the most dangerous thing in a weakness. Your subconscious is very aware of your weaknesses even if your conscious isn’t. And so what happens is we will avoid putting ourselves in situations that we know will expose a weakness even if putting ourself in that situation might be very profitable.
So if you’re a human being who knows I haven’t really done enough research on this topic like I should have and you’re invited to speak at a meetup, that might be very beneficial to your business, you’re going to get all the eyeballs on you. You’re going to opportunity to teach the people what you do. Let’s say that you’re a loan officer, that’s a chance you could pick up some clients that you could close loans for and make money. But you’re not paying attention to what’s going on in the market. You’re just checking boxes for someone else working a system they made and you’re not actually making an effort to learn how the whole process works. You will have an insecurity that comes from your weakness of not having enough knowledge. And what will happen is you’ll decline the invitations to speak at the meetup and you won’t ever realize how much money you lost by not taking action.
We always notice the money that we lose that was already ours. Something goes wrong, you got to fork over a guest another five grand. It sucks. You hate that. But you never realize the money that you could have made had you taken more action or been more decisive or had more confidence. That’s where your weaknesses are really hurting you. So understanding what they are, being honest with yourself, and then finding other people or other software or other systems to accommodate those will sort of allow you to take the steps that you need to take to scale and make more money.

Rob:
Yeah, that makes sense. So one of the big, I guess, pillars or one of the big topics and fundamental philosophies of SCALE is the purpose of leverage. I know that that’s obviously important, right? If you want to scale, if you want to get to millions of dollars in real estate in your portfolio, leverage is going to be a very necessary thing. So talk about a little bit. What does that mean? What is leverage? And how does leverage fit into the grand scheme of real estate?

David:
Well, if you think about just using a lever to pry something open, it’s really a… What’s the word I’m looking for? Like a physics type of a concept. You take a really long bar and that can be used to generate more energy than if you just try to use your hand to pry it open. If you think about the Pirates of the Caribbean quote with Johnny Depp, that, “Leverage! Leverage!” And they use it to do things that normally one person couldn’t do. There’s different ways that you can utilize that same concept in your business. The one we talk about all the time kind of become synonymous with the word leverage is money. I’m going to buy a $500,000 property, but I’m only going to use $100,000 of my money or my strength. I’m going to use $400,000 of the bank’s money or the bank’s strength. And there the leverage of the bank allows me to buy a property five times bigger than what I could have bought on my own.
The same thing is true of human capital. You get administrative assistance, you get property managers, you get real estate agents that are working with you and growing your business. You get handyman, you do contractors. If you had to do every single thing involved in buying real estate just on its own, no one would ever buy a house. We’d have to learn how to read title reports. We’d have to learn how to secure financing on our own. We’d have to know all the rules and regulations and paperwork involved in a transaction. We would have to be able to inspect a house on our own. You see where I’m going? No one could ever buy a property if you had to do everything yourself. So you’re already using leverage when you buy. When you become a business owner and when you’re scaling, you are getting intentional about learning how to be better at using other people, other software, or other money to do things you could not have done on your own.

Rob:
Okay, so it sounds like the way you’re breaking it down is leverage is two things effectively, right? There’s leveraging money, which is like you said, taking $100,000 and using that to get a $500,000 loan with the bank. You’re using other people’s money to help you scale your portfolio that way. And on the second part, what it sounds like is you’re really leveraging time, right? That’s what it comes down to. You as a single operator cannot physically do everything that it takes to run a 5, 10 unit portfolio, but you can leverage other people’s time to help you leverage sort of an infinite amount, right?

David:
You can use other people’s competence to help you do things. So if I use a home inspector, I’m not just getting the time back of inspecting a home. I’m saving years and years and years of experience that I would need to be able to do what that person does. You can leverage other people’s skillset, right? I might have you have a phone call for me instead of me because you can get to the end result faster. You can leverage other people’s knowledge. That’s what we’re doing on this podcast. People are listening to us and learning things that they would normally have had to lose money to learn. But by listening to us, they’re saving themselves the money, the pay and the time, the heartache of having to do it themselves. So we are all leveraging all the time. It’s nonstop, right? I’m leveraging the convenience that Google creates and allowing me to search for things quicker or store things in the Google Drive. Scaling is just about recognizing we’re already doing it and becoming better and more purposeful about ways you can do it more efficiently.

Rob:
So it kind of goes back to the strengths and weakness thing, right? Because you understand what you’re good at, so what you’re good at is going to give you the most leverage whenever you’re using your strengths to, I guess, run towards your goal. And if you’re really weak at something, if your weaknesses are, let’s say like you said, your skillset may not be needed on the phone call but you bring someone else’s skillset on there to get you to that end goal, then you know that it’s important to leverage someone’s competence. So really it seems like strengths and weakness identification is a pretty pivotal moment for you, right?

David:
Yes, that’s a great point. Some of the tools I use for that that I talk about in the book and in other places are the DiSC profile. So that’s a personality assessment trait that will help you identify what people tend to value in communication. Because what I found is what you communicate is what you value, and it’s almost always your strength. We don’t communicate in areas of our weakness, we communicate in areas of strength. So when I can identify somebody else’s mental makeup via the use of a tool like DiSC, I give myself a huge advantage in knowing what area of my business they would be better in. There’s certain profiles that work better for sales or for management or for analysis or for driving a project forward. That’s just a tool that can be used as you’re trying to understand what strengths and weaknesses are with different people. And the wise investors out there that are trying to grow a big portfolio, they’re already doing this even if they don’t recognize it.

Rob:
Yeah, definitely. So it sounds effectively like systems, identifying weaknesses and strengths, leverage, they all sort of tie into the end result that we’re all trying to get to, which is success. I know that one of the big things you talk about in the book is that there’s three dimensions of success, right? So walk us through that concept and what does that mean for the everyday investor?

David:
So this was something I had to learn the hard way. I became a real estate agent and my immediate frustration was there’s no one to teach me how to do this job. I actually had my license, went to the office, met with people, came in and had a question on how do you run a, we call it a comparative market analysis, just like how do you look at what the act of pending and sold properties are, nobody would help me. And I was so disenfranchised I spent six to eight months after that never going in the office again. I was just pissed. Like, “This is no point. My broker sucks. Nobody’s supporting me here.”
I finally had a cop friend who came to me and said, “Hey, do you want to sell my house?” And I had told him I would. I almost felt obligated to go take this listing, which as an agent is the best thing ever. We fight mad to get listings. That’s, “Anyone listening, please come to me if you want to sell your house.” So I had to call a friend and have him show me how to use the MLS to even run a CMA to figure out what I should sell his house for. It was not a good experience for me. And then once I learned that, now I had to learn how to negotiate.
I remember on that first deal I made this really big mistake where I got the buyers to waive their appraisal contingency, but they still had an inspection contingency. And then the appraisal came in low. I was really new, and so I just thought like, “Well, they have to pay what they said they were going to pay for. They don’t have an appraisal contingency.” But the agent made something up about poop in the backyard from the dog as the reason they were backing out of the deal, but then told me, “Hey buddy, you don’t know what you’re doing. We have an inspection contingency, we’re going to use that to back out.” And I was like, “Oh, that’s evil. You’re lying,” right? But I just was naive. I didn’t understand how the game got played. So I went through this process of having to learn a lot of things the hard way.
I first started reaching out to my database of people in my life that I hadn’t talked to for six or seven years and my first conversation was, “Hey, I’m a real estate agent now.” Bad mistake That’s like when your friend that you haven’t seen since high school wants to talk with you about a multi-level marketing opportunity, you’re immediately just like, “Ugh, I don’t want to talk to you. I don’t like you anymore.”
So I went through this process of learning. This is the first dimension of success. If you just consider a spectrum with zero on one end and 100 on the other with 100 symbolizing perfection, all of us are in some capacity learning how to be good at our job. It’s knowledge and the execution of that knowledge. So learning how to be a good basketball player, learning how to be a good snowboarder, learning jiu-jitsu, learning how to be a good barista, whatever it is you’re doing, there’s people that go to work every day and give a half-hearted effort and don’t really move along that spectrum very far so they don’t make more money. And there’s people that go to work every single day and push it as far as they can trying to get to 100.
So for you, Rob, I don’t know because we’ve never talked about it, but I would be willing to bet when you were a copywriter or you were in advertising, you showed up every day trying to learn from the people that were good at it, trying to gain as much knowledge as you could from the mentors that crushed it there, really giving your best effort. If you’re in the gym, you’re working out to failure every single day because you want to get stronger and you got better and better and better and better at the job and gain more skills. The first dimension of success is just committing to the process of being good at what you do.

Rob:
Yeah, it seems like there’s also a little bit of… It’s sort of like this funny juxtaposition of success is learning how to do your job. But a really big part of learning how to do your job is failure, right? It is the failures that make us successful. So that was a big part of my advertising career where I would always see the rock stars at the agency and I would go and sit next to them and, “Hey, what’s up? What are you guys talking about? You guys got any ideas? Can I share my ideas?” And they always say in advertising to fail big, right? So it is a very awkward and very uncomfortable thing to walk into a room and present a really crazy idea that you know will never get accepted, but you still do it anyways just to gain a little respect with the peers in the room that you put it out there. And it’s through that that you kind of get better.

David:
Yeah, through failing you get feedback, which is something in the next book I’m writing about, I talk about the feedback learning cycle, where the quicker that you put something into process or you start something, there’s a process, then you get feedback on how it went. The quicker you can get to feedback, the quicker you can adjust the first two steps. And you actually improve how quickly you can learn by proactively putting yourself in a position like you just mentioned, right? So these are all stuff I read about in books that are about, “Hey, you want to be better and get more money? It starts by getting better at your job.”
Money doesn’t just come to you, you’re not owed it. No one’s going to go find a great deal and hand it to you because they feel bad for you. That’s not the way the world works. You want to get better at learning. Well, what I realized as an agent was I got to a point where I was selling probably 40 houses a year and I could not do anymore. It was barely hanging on to be able to sell 40 houses a year. And I realized I had to get other people to help me, but I didn’t realize that that was a completely new process where I would be starting over at zero.
So I talk about the second dimension of success is leverage. Leverage is all about developing the skill of creating systems and managing other people to get them accomplished. I knew I needed to use people. What I didn’t understand is I had hit the hypothetical 100 on the learned dimension, so now I have to go in a new dimension. I’m going up. If you imagine Mario running across the screen left to right, that’s the first dimension. Now he can jump, that’s the second one. But no one told me I’d be starting at zero, that I would hire people and fail, and hire people and fail, and hire people and pour and pour and pour into them and continue to fail.
It’d be similar to if you were running a rental property and you were managing it yourself and you got to the five short-term rentals and you couldn’t do anymore. And so you just hired someone and said, “Hey, here’s what you do,” and they ran it into the ground and you just thought, “Oh, leverage doesn’t work.” It’s because you don’t understand that there is a skill to leverage also. You start at zero and you have to build up to 100 on this new dimension. Nobody tells you that. So a lot of people get to that point and they quit. They’re like, “Well, I tried it. It didn’t work. Not for me. I’m just going to quit.” But you didn’t quit when you were learning. You made tons of mistakes when you were learning. You just expected that that was part of the process of moving along that dimension. You have to go and humble yourself from being at 100 to starting over at zero and making a lot of mistakes as you learn the skills of leverage, the second dimension.

Rob:
Now you mentioned that you capped out at 40 properties as an agent, right? Understandable, right? We only have a finite amount of time. But as an investor, is there a cap there as well on how many properties you could buy? Is there any kind of bottleneck on that end as well?

David:
There is, and that’s why the government created the 1031 kind exchange because I had a similar thing happen to me in my investing portfolio. I was using the BRRRR method in northern Florida and I was acquiring properties sometimes at the point of four to five a month. I was able to get that done with the construction crew I had and the agent that was finding me the deals. I had a bank in place that I had a line of credit where I could fund these and I knew how to analyze the deal to make and buy them so that I was pulling 100% of my equity pretty much out of these deals. I had a property management company to manage them, but when I hit about 50 single family rentals, there came a point of diminishing returns. Every day it was some email of something that went wrong with one of these 50 properties or several of them.
The cash flow on single family houses is not what you hear people talk about. It’s maybe 300 a month, 350 a month on most of these, but then it just takes one bad tenant having to be evicted, that two years of cash flow can immediately be gone. So you’re not making nearly as every time you think you’re getting ahead, something goes wrong and breaks and it comes back and I realize, “I’m not getting the cash flow that I want out of this.” The properties are not appreciating as much as they would be in other parts of the country. It’s not fun because every day I’m coming in, I got to solve some new problem. Property managers can take some of the sting out of maybe 10 or 15, but when you get to 50, you’re still making decisions and following up and all of a sudden now I didn’t want to own the portfolio.
So I sold those homes and I reinvested. I probably sold half of my portfolio, reinvested it into half as much real estate that costs four times as much. That’s a great example of using leverage and capital as well as leverage in business to get out of a situation that was not able to scale any further and into a new one, these short-term rentals that I mentioned earlier, that are much easier to manage.

Rob:
Yeah, well it is kind of funny you’re talking about leverage or I guess your bottleneck here on the real estate side. Capital is a part of it, but there’s also just the actual organization and operations that can really cap you out too.

David:
Yeah. And so at a certain point, I’ll probably keep scaling up on short term rentals. Maybe when I get 50 of those, then I’m going to sell on 1031 into some mega properties or an apartment complex. But yes, you hit this ceiling. Whether you’re investing, whether you’re a real estate agent, whether you have a pool cleaning business or an auto repair shop, there is a limit to every single person where you hit a ceiling and you can’t go any further. The principle that repeats over and over and over is you now need to learn a new skill. You cannot keep doing the same thing you’ve been doing and keep getting good at fixing cars or repairing them or cleaning pools. You have to learn a new skill in leverage to get into the second dimension. The people that do that get ridiculously, exponentially better returns. You make a lot more money when you can have six or seven people out there doing the work that you were only able to do yourself as you manage them, but there is a ceiling that you hit and leverage as well.

Rob:
Yeah, leverage is hard. This is a tough one. I finally unlocked it for myself. But I think where the trap that people tend to get into is with leverage, you’re talking about leveraging other people a lot of the time, right? And so what it means to have other people on your team is one really big thing. You got to pay for them. You got to pay for their time. You got to employ them. And that means when you’re first getting ready to scale and you’re turning that corner like I am right now, you are going to make less money by hiring those people. But as soon as those systems are in place and everything starts churning, you’ll actually make a lot more money in the long run because they will be able to effectively do everything that you could never do by yourself, right?

David:
Yeah. But the point I just want to highlight, that’s how we tell people, that is how it works when it works. The process of getting there is not as simple as we made it sound describing it. And it never is. We tell people, “Here’s how you analyze a property” and they’re like, “Cool, I got the calculator. I got the information. Let me just go out there and analyze properties.” And they do it for three months and they can’t find a cash flow property. Well, that’s the reality, is it’s hard to execute on the information that’s being given unless you figure out a skill. You learn an area where properties are more likely to work. You figure out how to add value to a property, add rental units to it that will make a duplex into maybe three or four units instead of two.
Now, that’s a skill that you figure out that now opens up doors and allows you to scale faster. So leverage is the key, but you’re going to start over at zero. It’s okay. You just have to have humility and know just like I sucked when I was learning how to do it, I’m going to suck at leveraging how to do it as well, but if I stick with it, I will learn this just like I learned how to do it myself.

Rob:
Yeah, yeah. Okay. That’s a very beautiful way to put it. I think it is important to say easier said than done. You got to sort of fail at this, right? You got to learn the job of leveraging to do that well as well, right? So it all kind of ties together. So we’ve got learn how to do your job, leverage, which is maxing out and sort of using other people to help you scale your operations, and then we’ve got the last one here, which is lead. Tell us about that.

David:
Lead is the third dimension that you have to learn if you want to scale a business. So if you look at learn is running left to right on a spectrum on a plane, and then leverage is going up and down, lead would be going further out. It’s literally the third dimension of a cube. Leading is probably even harder than leverage. It’s the hardest of all of them because leaders have to anticipate things where other people can just respond or react to something going wrong. Leaders have to literally influence the emotions and the psychological state of the people that are working for them. That becomes their job.
So you know what this is like Rob. You’ll have a person who’s very good, they’re trained in what you need them to do. You’ve learned leverage, you’ve executed it. You have a person on your team that’s handling let’s say all the customer complaints or they’re analyzing the deals that you might want to buy. You’ve gone through all the growing pains of teaching them how to do it. You finally hit a rhythm and now they say, “Hey, I think I want to go start my own business. Hey, I think that I want to start a family. Hey, I just don’t feel like my heart’s not in this. I was listening to Simon Sinek and he was telling me that there’s more to life than just a job, and now I want to know what are you offering me to give me purpose in life.”
That’s the type of thing leaders have to now deal with. Or when I’ve got several different people that are all doing the same thing, but this one’s doing it better and making more money and this one isn’t making as much money but they don’t think that they’re not as good, how do I keep everyone happy and working on what they’re doing? It’s very difficult. You need to learn psychological skills. You’re going to be taking on problems that no one in the company wants. So the only problems that make it to the leader are the ones that every single other person has looked at and said, “Nope, I don’t want any part of that. I’m passing that one along, okay?”
If you’re a UFC fighter, you are only fighting the toughest people in the world. You don’t get easy ones anymore. And leadership is a dimension a lot of people never get into because they’ve already started over after learn, they’ve gotten leverage down and now they got to do it again. That third dimension is huge, and so they just don’t want to. The problem is if you don’t learn lead, you never get to scale. You will always be managing the people that you have leveraged. You will have a high paying enterprise that is probably doing very well financially, but you are still very much involved in. When you get to leadership, you actually are able to influence large amounts of people over shorter amounts of time. You can scale to something like what Chick-fil-A has, or you can scale to something like what Ken McElroy has with his real estate portfolio. You can get really good at whatever it is you’re doing and do it and mass if you can learn the skill of leadership.

Rob:
David, you make me a better man, my friend. I love this. I really, really, really do because it’s three things, the three dimensions of success. Learn how to do your job, leverage, lead. It’s so simple, but as you explain it, it’s so funny how I can see all the fundamental cracks of my business. I’m like, “Oh, that.” It’s because I’m trying to do it all at once, but it really is starting over from the top. And I think the reason it’s hard to ascend to that next dimension or getting to lead is exactly what you said, which is humility, which is like, “Why do I need to start over? I’ve already cut my teeth on this. I’ve already perfected my skills. Why do I have to go back to the very beginning and sort of suck again?” right? So I really appreciate that. This makes a lot of sense. So help us contextualize this because I can see how this makes sense from a practical business standpoint, but what would it look like for a wholesaler to implement the three dimensions of success?

David:
So the first thing they have to do is learn, “How do I find motivated sellers?” Because you’re not going to get a wholesale deal in a contract if you don’t have a seller that needs a quick sale or they’re willing to sell for less than market value because there’s so many people involved in needing a profit that the margin has to be really big for there to be enough to go around. Once you finally find out how to get the sellers, now you got to learn a new skill. You got to learn how to talk to them. You got to have a really good mouthpiece. Pace Morby well-known for this. We just interviewed Brent Daniels, Jamil Damji. You’ll notice all three of those guys got a silver tongue. They know how to make you feel good. They are very, very, very skilled communicators, okay? The typical wholesaler that’s like, “I have no money, so this is the strategy I’m going to use,” doesn’t have communication skills, they’re not going to do well in the business. So that’s a thing that has to be learned.
Once you’ve got those two things, now you have to learn how to create a funnel where deals keep coming in and you keep putting them in contract and you find an end buyer to give them to. So you have to have the skill of building up a buyer’s list. You’re probably going to need to be able to explain to your buyers what the ARV is and you’re probably going to have to solve some of their problems. You’re going to need construction, handyman crews, different referrals, lenders that will work on properties that don’t qualify for conventional financing. You probably have to accumulate all these pieces to hand to your end buyers so that they’re going to be willing to work with you to close the deal.
Then you got to learn how much money to spend on whatever your marketing efforts are and how to read a P&L to make sure that you are selling for more than you’re spending, okay? That’s a lot of crap that a person has to get good at to just be a good wholesaler. The leverage side would come in where now you are teaching other people how to have the conversation with the sellers at close to 80% of as good as you did, which is hard. It was hard to learn how to talk to sellers. Now you got to convince an employee who doesn’t have an ownership in the business and maybe just wants a job, they don’t want a business like you, how to be good at doing that to effective.
Now you got to teach other people the marketing techniques that you’ve used and hold them accountable to making sure they’re getting the phone ringing as much, okay? You have to leverage off the pieces of that business that you got good at. You got to train a bunch of other people to be as close to as good of it as you were. But if you can do that, you can probably be wholesaling a couple hundred deals a year instead of 10 to 12.
And then the last piece would be leadership. For a wholesaler that wants to get into leadership, they now can franchise their model and say, “I’m going to teach…” Like this is a… What was that? We Buy Ugly Homes. I think that’s one of those, right? They turned their model of marketing and getting properties under contract that were ugly into something that you could now pay them to be a part of this group and they get a chunk of your profits, but they can do this across the country. Or you can take your whole selling technique that works in Houston, Texas where you’ve crushed it, and you can go to Miami, Florida or New York or Southern California and you can use the same systems but adapt them to another market so you can have five wholesaling enterprises all with a bunch of leverage in each one. That’s like a practical application of how these three dimensions would work in a normal business.

Rob:
Love it, dude. I want to ask you how it applies to a flipper because it’s really cool to just hear you break it down so quickly like that. But I know we’re getting to the end of time. Not the end of all time, the end of the time on the podcast. Anyways, before we end here, I actually did want to ask you about your fish cleaning versus fish catching analogy, because I remember when you told me this, you kind of melted my mind a little bit about it because it’s just kind of a really cool way to sum up what business is and basically how one scales, right? So walk us through that and how it applies to scaling your business.

David:
So this is a mystery to people that just have had jobs, they’ve never owned a business, because to them all tasks are the same, okay? Like getting a sale, completing the sale, administrative work, sweeping the floor. It’s all just stuff that has to get done and they go through it with varying degrees of enthusiasm. But when you own a business, you start to see very clearly, “Oh, there’s actually two completely different parts here.” There is a component of catching a fish, getting it out of the water and into the boat that involves a set of skills, knowing what lures to use. This is sales and this is marketing, okay? The skill of setting the hook, that’s sales, like being able to close. Then once it’s closed, the ability to reel it in and get it in the boat without the hook coming out or the line breaking. That’s like your follow up once you’ve got a verbal commitment. And then getting it out of the boat and into the live well. Okay, now like the money’s in the bank.
Once you’ve done that… Or maybe not the money’s in the bank, but the contract has been signed, right? Now, you have to go clean this fish and turn it into a filet that can be sold on the open market because nobody wants to just go buy raw fish, okay? They want a dinner, they don’t want to buy a fish. So when you own the business and it’s just you doing the job, you’re doing all of that. You’re gassing up the boat, you’re spending your capital to buy the boat, you’re launching it, you’re trying to figure out where the fish are. You’re figuring out your own bait. You’re trying to get the fish to bite. You’re setting the hook, you’re getting it in the boat. You catch a couple of them. Now you stop fishing. You got to go all the way back to the dock, launch your boat, get out, clean these four fish, figure out some way to get them to market, get your money for the fish, and then go all the way back and start catching fish again.
The key to business is understanding there are certain tasks that you do that are inherently more valuable than others. So if you look at this fishing example, catching a fish is by far the most lucrative thing you can do. Cleaning the fish, gassing up the boat, sending the fish off to the market, that is something that is easier to leverage because it’s less valuable. So if you had a fish cleaning business, the goal would be to learn how to be as good of a fisherman as you could to where you’re catching so many fish that you couldn’t keep up with it.
The first position you hire for is fish cleaning, which is what I call operations. You split it into sales and operations. Sales is getting a fish in the boat. Operations is getting that fish cleaned and turned into revenue. Your first hires are on the administrative side, they’re on operations for any business. It doesn’t matter what it is, you hire people to do the easier task and they get paid less money because those tasks are less challenging and don’t require as much skill. As your fish cleaner has so many fish to clean, they can’t keep up, maybe you hire a second one and you give them two different tasks. “Okay. Your job is to cut off the head and the tail, your job is to filet.” And you sort of create this assembly line, which is what Henry Ford figured out on the operation side to be efficient.
And then you also simultaneously want to scale out your sales side. So there’s you fishing, but what if you brought another fisherman with you and they fished on the back of the boat and you fished on the front of the boat and you could theoretically catch twice as much fish and you gave them maybe 25% of the total catch or something, right? So they have some incentive here to try to be good at catching fish also, but that person’s going to make more than the fish cleaner.
There’s a couple lessons there. If you’re trying to get really good at operations and fish cleaning, don’t expect to be really wealthy. It doesn’t mean that it’s bad. Not everybody in the world cares about wealth. We need fish cleaners in the world. But if you’re listening to this podcast, you’re trying to figure out, “How do I get out of the place I’m at? How do I get more money?” It’s learning how to catch the fish. It’s learning how to find the deal. It’s learning how to put it in contract and own it. It’s not learning how to be a good manager or a good bookkeeper or a really good… I don’t know. I can’t think of another example of what happens in real estate, but not all jobs are the same. But you do create an org chart as you get better and better at catching fish. And then the more people that come in, the more specific those jobs actually become.

Rob:
Yeah, there’s a reason that sales and the people that bring in the money to the organization tend to make really the most, right? They tend to be the most compensated, right? Because they’re the ones catching the big fish. So thanks for breaking that down. And that ultimately brings us back to the very reason that you titled the book SCALE for fish scales.

David:
That’s it.

Rob:
I knew. I knew. I knew there was a reason, man. Well, before we go, I want to do a very fast author deep dive. I’m going to ask you three questions, fire round style, and I just want you to answer them very quickly for everybody at home. Is that cool?

David:
Yes.

Rob:
Okay. Starting with question number one, who are your book heroes?

David:
Jay Papasan, Gary Keller, Cal Newport, and John Eldredge. They all write so succinct and so solid that every time I read my old books I’m like, “You suck because you’re not nearly as good as them.” With each book I write, I become a little better at being succinct and clear. I think my writing style now is remarkably better than when I wrote long distance investing in BRRRR. But I compare myself to the best of the best of the best that I can find to always be trying to grow in my… On the learn scale, I’m still learning how to be a better author.

Rob:
Well, if it helps, when I read your books, I actually do feel like it’s you narrating the words. So you’ve got that down. I think that’s the most important trait right there.

David:
So you’re saying I’m just as long-winded when I talk as I am when I write?

Rob:
That’s what you said. You’re extrapolating that from what I said.

David:
I appreciate that.

Rob:
Go clean a fish. What is your favorite writing food or beverage?

David:
All right, so writing is actually incredibly difficult. It’s easy to write a book, it’s very hard to write a good book. And so it is very important to be caffeinated for me when I’m writing if I want to maintain the levels of focus that you have to continue to try to articulate points in a clean way that is persuasive and actually conveys nutrients or knowledge. So I started drinking, these are much better than just a normal energy drink, they’re these Sparkling Ice+Caffeine. Of course, the people that are health nuts out there are going to be screaming, “That’s still not healthy!” I know. It’s not, but I can’t stop and go to Starbucks in the middle of writing. That’s like an hour of time wasted. I have to have something in the fridge here in my office.
So I’ll drink those to stay. I’ll just kind of sip on them all throughout the day. I don’t hammer it all at one time. I will often eat corn nuts. I’ve got these right here because there’s not too much sugar and not too many calories in those things. But if I have to stop writing to go get food, it is very hard to get back into it. It’s kind of like when you stop running to tie your shoe and the last thing you want to do is start running again.

Rob:
All right. Or whenever there’s like a stop light and you have to stop, and so you just jog in place just waiting for it to turn green.

David:
Yes, it’s the work, right?

Rob:
And everyone’s just like, “We get it, bro. You run. Just chill.” All right. Lastly, what is your process? Run? Write? Cry? Repeat?

David:
Yeah, something similar to that, man. My writing process, I’ve done this enough times now that I’ve created a system for it, right? And now I am much faster at writing most books. This one I’m working on after SCALE has just been a humdinger. It’s a very difficult book to write, but I think it’s going to be the best book I’ve ever. It’s going to help more people than anything. I’m really excited about it.
But the process is basically I brain dump every single thing that I think should be in the book onto a Google document. So for SCALE, I’m thinking about everything that a person would need to turn a job into a business, and then everything that a realtor estate agent would need to know to do that well. And a lot of it is not just the information what they should do. It’s actually highlighting the enemies that are going to make it hard to do it. Because telling people what to do is not hard. You could tell someone how to go get a short-term rental. It’s very simple. The execution of getting it is completely different because there’s things that pop up over and over and over that prevent us from succeeding. It’s not hard to know how to have a six pack, it’s hard to eat the right food. That stuff is what you’re really trying to master when you’re trying to get good. So I will dump all of it out.
I will then go through this big old list of stuff and I will group it into categories like, “Okay, all these concepts are kind of the same. Let’s create that.” And I create these buckets or categories that are all somewhat related. I then take those and I turn them into chapters. I then look at all the chapters I have and say, “Is anything missing?” Once I decide there’s nothing missing, I put them in the order that I think will have the strongest emotional impact. So you don’t want to start the book off right away telling people how to set the hook on a fish. You got to have them understand the idea is that there’s fish catching and that there’s fish cleaning is the difference.
Once I’ve got the chapters in place, I then break it into all the subpoints that I want to make in that chapter. I’m actually pretty, pretty thorough with my outline. And by the time I have an outline, I basically have a book. It’s then very easy to just go through my outline. I don’t hit writer’s block if I’ve done it well and I just turn every little subpoint into a paragraph or two.

Rob:
Wow. Well, a peek behind the green curtain. As a reminder everybody, if you go to biggerpockets.com/scale, you can pre-order the book right now and use promo code SCALE724 for 10% off at checkout. Remember, that’s SCALE724. And that is the amount of scales that are on a fish. That’s how we got to that promo, SCALE724.

David:
That’s pretty funny. And if you have a real estate agent in your life that you want to help, these books can be a lifesaver for them because they’re struggling and they just don’t know it. It’s very frustrating turning the job. There’s a lack of mentors. There’s a lack of direction. These books are written to be the mentor I didn’t have, as well as all the information I’ve used teaching David Greene team agents how to do their jobs accumulated for other agents. If you buy all three of the books in this series, we’re also offering a one month free membership into my Wealth Building Mastermind. So that is worth way more than the cost of the three books.

Rob:
That’s a crazy deal. That’s a crazy good deal. So go over to biggerpockets.com/scale and use promo code SCALE724. David, before we get you out of here, where can people find out about you on the internet? Where can people connect and do all that good stuff?

David:
They can find me @davidgreene24. Also, if you’re kind of on the fence about the book, I would recommend that you just go to Amazon and read some of the reviews of my other book, see what people think about other things. Or they can follow me on YouTube, also at youtube.com/davidgreene24. You’ve got me much deeper into the YouTube world, Rob, and I appreciate you for that.

Rob:
Hey. Hey, happy to be here.

David:
Where can people find out about you?

Rob:
Oh, you can find me @robuilt on YouTube or on Instagram. But honestly, I think if you heard this podcast today and you were like me where you were sort of your mind was melting and you’re like, have a more clear understanding of how to scale, do me a big favor. Go leave us a five-star review on Apple Podcasts or wherever you download your podcasts so that our podcast can be served up to millions more people to help them scale their real estate businesses. Do that for me and it would mean the world to me and Dave.

David:
Amen.

Rob:
Well, awesome. Well, I’m not even going to try the call sign. So do you have a call sign? Can you close this out? I know I’ll fail miserably.

David:
All right. This is David Greene for Rob, my favorite fish, Abasolo, I’m glad I caught you brother, signing off.