January 2024

Hamptons La Dune mansion once listed for 0 million sells at auction

Hamptons La Dune mansion once listed for $150 million sells at auction


Hamptons mansion on auction block

A Hamptons estate that once listed for $150 million before falling into bankruptcy was sold at auction Wednesday for $88.5 million.

The four-acre estate in Southampton, New York, known as La Dune, was sold by Concierge Auctions at a starting bid of $66 million. The property was sold in two parts — one house sold for $40.5 million and the other for $38.5 million. The buyer premium brings the total sale to $88.5 million.

The property, once the most expensive listing the Hamptons and famed for an appearance in the Woody Allen film “Interiors,” had been on and off the market since 2016. It was most recently listed in 2022 at $150 million.

Last year, the two properties on the compound were put into Chapter 11 bankruptcy after a foreclosure judgement.

The Atlantic Ocean offers a stunning backdrop for a pair of mansions for sale on Gin Lane in Southampton.

Liam Gifkins

The previous owner, Louise Blouin, purchased the property in the 1990s for $13.5 million. She spent millions building a second mansion on the property in 2001, adding to the existing mansion, which was built in the 1890s.

The compound includes 23 bedrooms, two pools, a sunken tennis court, a home theater, spa, sauna and two gyms. Located on coveted Gin Lane, the property has 400 feet of oceanfront and lush landscaping.

Blouin, a Canadian art magazine publisher, owned Art+Auction, Gallery Guide, Modern Painters and other publications before the business started to falter. The loans on the La Dune property reached $40 million, according to media reports, and the estate was placed into Chapter 11 bankruptcy last year to avoid a foreclosure auction.

The pair of beachfront homes with two pools and a tennis court in the foreground of the photo are the La Dune estate.

Liam Gifkins

Real estate sales slowed in the Hamptons last year, largely due to a lack of inventory, according to industry analysts. Yet prices and demand at the high end of the market remain strong.

Two properties sold in the Hamptons last year for over $50 million each, including a 6.7-acre compound in East Hampton that went for $91.5 million, more than double its sale price three years earlier.

La Dune is among the most expensive homes sold at auction. In 2022, Concierge sold an estate in the Los Angeles area at auction for $141 million.

Concierge auctioned La Dune in partnership with Harald Grant of Sotheby’s International Realty, Tim Davis of The Corcoran Group, and Cody Vichinsky, president and founding partner of Bespoke Real Estate.

The sale is pending approval from the bankruptcy court.

Go inside the most expensive home for sale in the Hamptons: $150,000,000



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Fannie Mae Expands Allowance for Attorney-Opinion Letters Instead of Title Insurance. What Is the Backlash All About?

Fannie Mae Expands Allowance for Attorney-Opinion Letters Instead of Title Insurance. What Is the Backlash All About?


As part of its goal to increase affordable mortgage access for homebuyers in the United States, Fannie Mae announced in December that it would accept attorney-opinion letters (AOLs) in place of title insurance with more mortgages. While AOLs have been allowed by the government-sponsored enterprise on select mortgages since 2022, the decision expands eligible mortgages to include condo units and properties with homeowners association (HOA) restrictions, potentially assisting more first-time homebuyers with the high costs of homeownership by trimming about $1,000 off their mortgage closing costs. 

The Community Home Lenders of America expressed support for the alternative as a way to tackle homeownership affordability challenges. But the American Land Title Association (ALTA), the nation’s largest title insurance trade organization, has consistently pushed back against attempts to allow title insurance alternatives, citing gaps in protection for homeowners and lenders. 

The association joined lawmakers from both political parties in criticizing an earlier pilot program that may have eliminated the title insurance requirement altogether on select mortgages. Fannie Mae abandoned the pilot program last year based on guidance from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). 

Though AOLs will now be an option for lenders originating many government-backed mortgages, critics claim lenders will need to sacrifice essential protections to make the alternative available to borrowers, which may limit the impact of Fannie Mae’s decision. 

What Is Title Insurance?

First, it’s helpful to understand what title insurance is. This type of insurance protects against defects in the title that were present before the home sale but may threaten the buyer’s ownership rights or cause monetary losses in the future. 

The vast majority of mortgage lenders require borrowers to purchase a lender’s title insurance policy with a limit that covers the mortgage principal. This means buyers must pay a sizable one-time premium at closing, which provides coverage until the mortgage is fully paid or the home is sold. 

If issues with the title arise that challenge the buyer’s right to ownership, such as boundary disputes, unpaid real estate taxes, contractor claims, errors in property records, or fraud, these issues could put the lender’s security interest in the property at risk. The lender’s title insurance policy protects the lender against monetary losses in the event a third party successfully claims ownership of the buyer’s home. It does not cover the buyer’s legal fees or protect their home equity. 

That’s why most attorneys recommend that buyers purchase an owner’s title insurance policy as well. These are often sold as a package. The owner’s title insurance policy typically covers the homeowner as long as they own the home. 

Is Title Insurance Necessary?

Title insurance critics contend that attorney-opinion letters, which are now allowed on many mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and, in more limited circumstances, Freddie Mac, provide sufficient protection against title risks.

According to Fannie Mae’s guidance, attorneys issuing the letters must have errors and omissions insurance, which can protect against losses the lender incurs due to attorney negligence during the title examination. For example, SingleSource, which provides services to mortgage originators, now offers an Attorney Conclusion of Title that includes a transactional liability insurance policy that lists the lender as a third-party beneficiary and covers the loan principal for the length of the loan. 

But if the buyer discovers title issues that are not due to attorney negligence, any resulting losses may not be covered. And foreclosure may need to occur before even filing a claim. It’s also not clear whether the buyer’s or lender’s legal fees would be covered in a title dispute or whether an AOL provides any protection against title issues related to fraud, according to ALTA

For these reasons, lenders and buyers may opt for title insurance to get access to broader coverage for a wider range of title defects, even if a cheaper alternative is available. Some members of Congress have expressed concern about how AOLs will be marketed to homeowners and have asked the FHFA for clarification on what disclosures will be required to prevent consumer protection violations. Without proper education on the differences between title insurance and AOLs, homebuyers might not understand the protections they’re giving up to save money on closing costs

That said, title issues are relatively rare. In fact, of the more than 10,000 AOL-supported mortgages that Fannie Mae has purchased since 2009, none have resulted in losses for the mortgage company. While title defects have caused homeowners to lose their properties in rare cases, mechanics’ liens are more common and not as catastrophic, according to the Urban Institute

Reducing Title Insurance Costs

Despite the broad coverage that title insurance policies provide, many people criticize the high costs to consumers and how that money is spent. With most insurance products, providers spend about 70% or more of the premium dollars they collect paying out claims to policyholders. Title insurers, by contrast, only put about 5% of premiums toward covering losses. 

Title insurance agents retain about 70% of buyers’ premiums, according to a report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). While the role of the title insurance agent is sometimes labor intensive, in other instances, it can be mostly automated, with the title search and examination taking as little as 60 seconds. 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau encourages homebuyers to shop around for a title insurance company since research shows comparison shopping can save consumers as much as $500 on title insurance. However, some people question whether real estate brokers or lenders may be steering homebuyers toward title companies with which they have Affiliate Business Arrangements (ABAs) that provide financial incentives. 

For example, The Denver Post investigated 2,200 home sales for which real estate brokers had profitable partnerships with title companies and found that most homeowners chose the title insurance company that financially benefited their broker. Agents are required to register ABAs with the state of Colorado and disclose those relationships with homebuyers, but the investigation revealed at least three dozen agents with unregistered ABAs. 

And there was evidence to suggest that even some brokers with registered ABAs weren’t giving their clients options. For example, 100% of three brokers’ home sales used their affiliate title insurance company. If brokers had provided homebuyers with three options to compare with each other, as industry protocol suggests, that outcome would be highly unlikely. 

Title insurance typically costs about 0.5% of a home’s purchase price, which is more than $2,000 on a median-priced home. Even in the absence of affordable alternatives that provide sufficient protection for homeowners, the Urban Institute notes there are ways to control excessive costs. Self-insurance by secondary market entities, like the pilot program Fannie Mae dropped after backlash from the title insurance industry, could be one potential strategy. 

State regulations can also make an impact. For example, the state of Iowa, which prohibits the sale of commercial title insurance, operates Iowa Title Guaranty, which provides similar coverage as a commercial title insurance policy to both the lender and the owner at a flat fee of $175 for properties that sell for $750,000 or less. Any surplus profits go toward Iowa’s housing program fund. 

Iowa’s homebuyers are also required to pay for an attorney-abstract opinion, but they still pay far less than the typical title insurance premium in other states. Additionally, Iowa Title Guaranty won’t insure titles that haven’t been thoroughly examined by an attorney. Because this system has been in place for decades, the state is well known for its clean titles

The Bottom Line

While $1,000 in savings may seem minor relative to the cost of buying a home, homebuyers today need any edge they can get. Research shows that even an extra mortgage payment’s worth of post-closing reserves can dramatically decrease the risk of default. 

The FHFA requires Fannie Mae to make efforts toward advancing housing finance equity, which is a challenging task given high mortgage rates and high housing prices. Expanded acceptance of AOLs in place of title insurance is one aspect of Fannie Mae’s plan, but in some situations, forgoing title insurance could leave homeowners vulnerable to unaffordable costs down the road. Lawmakers and title industry advocates have been vocal about their concerns, and their criticism may impact lenders’ decision to allow the alternative. 

Real estate investors may also continue to purchase title insurance, even if more affordable alternatives are available, in order to secure the broadest possible protection for their investments. But regardless of the impact of Fannie Mae’s decision, there may be room for further innovation and cost control measures related to title insurance.

Ready to succeed in real estate investing? Create a free BiggerPockets account to learn about investment strategies; ask questions and get answers from our community of +2 million members; connect with investor-friendly agents; and so much more.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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Home sales dampened by severe winter weather, Redfin says

Home sales dampened by severe winter weather, Redfin says


A “For Sale” sign stands outside a home following a snow fall in Geneseo, Illinois, U.S., on Monday, Jan. 20, 2020. The National Association Of Realtors is scheduled to release Existing Homes Sales figures on January 22. Photographer:

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Severe winter weather is hindering home sales across the country, according to a Thursday report from real estate company Redfin.

The median U.S. home-sale price has been steadily increasing, rising around 5% in the first four weeks of January, alongside asking prices, Redfin reported. While low inventory – down 4% year over year – and increased purchasing power have contributed to the high price tags, Redfin said winter weather has also factored into sluggish sales.

Pending home sales are down more than 8% year over year, which Redfin reported as the biggest decline in four months. With potential homebuyers in areas facing severe winter weather staying home, that number has continued to climb.

The winter season has been plagued by an arctic freeze, dangerous snow and ice storms across the country and even heavy rain across drought-stricken California. The Midwest experienced near-record lows holding steady at subzero temperatures.

“Real estate is usually slow in the Midwest in the winter, but this year it’s even slower than usual because the weather has been so extreme,” Redfin agent Christine Kooiker from Michigan said in a release. “Casual house hunters are staying home to avoid the roads — but inventory is low enough that serious buyers are finding a way to see desirable homes. I also believe we’ll get busier as we approach spring.”

Real estate agents from warmer climates reported more active buyers and sellers, even with the mortgage rates stable in the high 6% range, Redfin added.

For the first month of 2024, the median home sale price was around $360,000, according to Redfin. Metros with the biggest year-over-year price increases included Anaheim, California, which saw a 13.6% jump; New Brunswick, New Jersey, at 13.5%; and Miami, Florida, at 13.3%.

Home sales in December slumped to close out the worst year since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors.



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Investing in Commercial Real Estate for Beginners

Investing in Commercial Real Estate for Beginners


Choosing between commercial and residential real estate is a big decision for investors. If you choose the wrong strategy, you could be in over your head and potentially lose money. 

We’ve created an investing in commercial real estate for beginners guide to help you understand what it means to invest in commercial real estate and what it requires.

Understanding Commercial vs. Residential Real Estate

When you think of commercial real estate, you likely think of retail stores, office spaces, and medical facilities. It can also include properties with more than five units, such as apartment complexes and hotels. 

Residential real estate refers to properties strictly for living in. This includes any buildings with fewer than five units, such as single-family homes, condos, and duplexes.

Commercial and residential real estate may both earn landlords rent and require property owners to manage and maintain them, but the similarities end there.

Key differences

Knowing the key differences between residential and commercial real estate can help determine which investment strategy is right for you.

  • Types of tenants: Commercial real estate tenants have specific needs. For example, you may get retail tenants, medical practitioners, or tenants needing office space. Residential real estate tenants strictly need a place to live. There is generally a larger pool of residential real estate tenants.
  • Lease terms: Commercial real estate has much longer lease terms than residential leases typically have. Most residential leases are for one year or less, making the income less consistent and risking a higher vacancy rate than commercial real estate, which usually has leases ranging from three to 10 years.
  • Income potential: Commercial real estate typically offers higher and more stable income because tenants sign longer leases. The risk of vacancy with residential properties makes the income more volatile, and rent prices are typically lower.
  • Regulations: Commercial real estate faces much strict zoning and use guidelines. This may narrow your pool of available tenants. Residential properties have a single use: a place for tenants to reside.
  • Initial investment requirement: Investors need much less capital to invest in residential real estate than in commercial real estate. This can sometimes be a barrier to entry for beginners in commercial real estate.
  • Volatility: Commercial real estate is more prone to market downturns because businesses are usually the first to struggle when the economy struggles. On the other hand, everyone needs a place to live, so residential real estate isn’t as volatile.

Benefits of Investing in Commercial Real Estate

When investing in commercial real estate, it’s important to consider the benefits of choosing it. Like any investment, commercial real estate can be a solid choice when things go well.

Here are some of the benefits investors enjoy:

  • Higher income: Commercial real estate rent prices are usually much higher than residential rent, so investors have higher monthly cash flow.
  • Longer lease agreements: The peace of mind that comes with a commercial property lease can be worth its weight in gold. Knowing you have a tenant for the next 10 years versus one year can make investing much less stressful.
  • Triple net leases: Under a triple net lease, commercial tenants pay real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance plus rent. This lowers the investor’s costs in owning the property and increases potential profits.
  • Diversification: Putting all your money into one investment is never a good idea, so diversifying into commercial real estate ensures you get the best of both markets when they do well and have each market to back up the losses when one market struggles.

Risks Associated With Commercial Real Estate

All investments have risks, and the higher the risk, the greater the potential returns. Here are some of the most common risks to be aware of before choosing to invest in commercial real estate for beginners:

  • Market sensitivity: When there is a market downturn, businesses can be the first to struggle, especially those in nonessential industries. Lower sales can mean missed rent or broken leases.
  • Property management challenges: Commercial real estate investments typically require hiring reputable property management companies. Hiring a deceptive property management company can cause you to lose tenants and money.
  • Higher initial investment: Commercial properties require 30% to 40% down payments and have much higher price points. This can mean you need hundreds of thousands of dollars for the down payment.
  • Liquidity issues: Residential real estate is much easier to sell when needed, and often at a price close to or higher than what you invested. Commercial real estate doesn’t have the same benefit. It’s often much harder to sell quickly, and you likely won’t get what you paid for it, depending on the current values and economic cycle.

Beginner Steps to Get Started With Commercial Real Estate Investing

Investing in commercial real estate for beginners requires several steps to ensure you get started on the right foot.

Market research

Before investing in commercial real estate, market research is essential, as is knowing the economic and employment health of the area. Not all commercial properties will be profitable. It depends on the health of the overall area and the demand for the type of commercial property you’re considering.

Assemble a team of experts

Investing in commercial real estate requires a solid team of experts who are there for you every step of the process. This team includes real estate agents, lenders, accountants, property managers, contractors, and lawyers. The right team will oversee purchasing and managing commercial real estate to help you earn profits.

Financial analysis and budgeting

A property financial analysis is the key to ensuring you make a solid commercial real estate investment. Like residential real estate, consider the rent history, property management expenses, taxes, and insurance. But you must also consider the number of units, vacancy history, zoning regulations, the property’s net operating income, and cash flow.

You must also determine your personal budget and if you’ll qualify for financing. This requires an extensive down payment and the ongoing funds to operate and manage the property.

Secure financing

Securing financing for commercial properties differs from residential investment financing. As mentioned, you’ll need a larger down payment, but you must also show you have the experience and knowledge to manage a profitable commercial real estate investment.

In addition to standard financial documents required for residential real estate investments, you must prove you have the experience necessary to run a commercial real estate investment with documented proof, such as profit & loss statements.

Due diligence

Research is the key to successfully investing in commercial real estate. Consider the property’s cap rate, cash-on-cash return, and net operating income. Compare these numbers to your overall investment plan to see how they fit.

Common Strategies for Investing in Commercial Real Estate

Investing in commercial real estate for beginners offers many options, from direct investment to crowdfunding; there are opportunities at every income level.

Direct investment

Most people think of direct investment when investing in commercial real estate. This means purchasing a commercial property and renting it to tenants. This requires large down payments, qualifying for financing, and understanding how to manage the property for the duration of ownership.

REITs

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are real estate holding companies that purchase commercial real estate properties and sell shares of their companies to investors. The investors become real estate investors by default and earn a prorated amount of the portfolio’s return. This is a hands-off approach to real estate investing.

Real estate syndication

If investing in commercial real estate alone seems overwhelming, you can join a real estate syndication, a group of real estate investors who pool their assets and resources to invest in real estate properties. This gives you more power than investing in REITs and decreases the capital required and your overall risk. The profits, appreciation, and ownership percentages directly correlate to the size of your investment.

Crowdfunding platforms

Crowdfunding real estate platforms make commercial real estate investing possible for more investors. Some crowdfunding platforms have low investment requirements—as low as $100. This commercial real estate investment strategy is 100% passive, meaning you don’t have to do any work to manage the property. You invest money and collect your portion of the profits as they occur.

Managing Your Commercial Real Estate Investment

A major component of investing in commercial real estate is managing it. Consider these factors when deciding if commercial real estate investments are right for you.

Property management

When investing in commercial real estate, you must determine whether to manage the property yourself or hire a professional property manager

Property management includes running the day-to-day operations of owning commercial real estate, managing the property’s maintenance plan, tenant management, handling vacancies, collecting rent, and budgeting and reporting.

Hiring a property management company increases your expenses but decreases the time and effort you must use to manage the property.

Improving and upgrading properties

Improvements and upgrades can help you save money in the long run and earn higher rents. Tenants are always looking for upgraded spaces with the latest amenities. Upgrading commercial spaces also decreases repair costs and makes the property last longer.

Handling tenant relations

The most significant part of commercial real estate investing is developing tenant relationships. You’ll negotiate lease and lease renewals, collect rent, discuss rent increases as allowed in the lease agreement, and handle any tenant needs within the lease agreement.

Legal & Tax Considerations

Taxes and legal considerations are significant in commercial or residential real estate investing. 

Generally, residential real estate properties have lower property tax rates than commercial, but commercial real estate properties have shorter depreciation periods than residential properties (27.5 years versus 39 years).

It’s vital to have a powerful real estate team to ensure you understand your legal and tax requirements, both before choosing a real estate investment and while owning it.

Final Thoughts

Investing in commercial real estate for beginners requires a strategic plan, due diligence, and a solid real estate team. With the right people by your side and adequate research, you can diversify your real estate investment portfolio to include residential and commercial real estate investments.

2024 Live Virtual Summit

Struggling to invest or feeling unsure about the 2024 real estate market? Our first-ever BiggerPockets Live Virtual Summit was created just for you! Led by your favorite experts, dive into four mind-blowing nights of pure real estate inspiration and make 2024 your year for real estate success.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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How to Get a Home Loan as a House Hacker, Investor

How to Get a Home Loan as a House Hacker, Investor


If you want to start investing in real estate, you’ll need to know how to get a mortgage. But with so many home loans available, which is the right one to pick? Do you go FHA or conventional? Do you work with your local bank or call a broker? How much can you even afford? These questions alone might put you into analysis paralysis, so today, we’re breaking down what it takes to get a home loan, how much YOU can qualify for, and the best real estate investment for beginners.

To demystify the home loan process is David Mackin—the third David in today’s episode—mortgage broker, house hacker, and home loan expert. He knows what you need to qualify for a mortgage in 2024 because he qualifies buyers all day long. David shares how YOU can determine how much home you can afford, why you’re getting different mortgage rates from different lenders, and how to find cash flow in your market by reverse engineering your real estate calculations.

And, if you’re looking for the easiest, lowest cost, and arguably best way to get into real estate in 2024, this episode is for you. We’ll break down why house hacking has become the new norm and why skipping out on it can cost you BIG in your real estate investing journey.

David:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show, 880. What’s going on, everyone? This is David Greene, your host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast. Joined today by Dave Meyer. It’s always a good day when Meyer is in town. How are you doing, Dave?

Dave:
I’m doing great. I’m excited for this episode, but I also think we owe our audience a little bit of a disclaimer because our guest today is also named David. So we’re going to have Dave, David, and another David joining us, and we’ll try and use our last names when we’re talking during the podcast, but that’s just a little disclaimer before everyone gets really confused.

David:
Yeah, it does get fun. In the Mighty Ducks, they had a move called the Triple D, and today’s show is a bit of a Triple D with a lot of David going around, but it’s a really good one. So if you’re somebody who’s ever been struggling with getting into the housing market as it’s becoming increasingly competitive, curious about house hacking, want to know what’s going on when you’re getting pre-approved for a mortgage or qualified for mortgage, or are not sure which lender you should be choosing, we get into all of those topics in depth and give a really good breakdown of what the lending industry looks like and how that can apply to real estate investing. Was there anything here, Dave? Oh, by the way, you’ve got a book releasing today, your Start with Strategy book. So let everybody know where they can go get that book, and then as your strategical mind looks through things, let us know what you think people should keep an eye out for in today’s show.

Dave:
Well, first I’ll just talk about the show so then I can talk about the book. Thank you. Appreciate it. But I do think what you were talking about with lending makes a lot of sense and it’s more practical and more important now than ever to really have your financing lined up because the number one thing that is impacting the housing market that is impacting investors is affordability. And it’s really important to understand what kind of deals you can afford, what kind of loan products are going to be best for your particular strategy. So definitely make sure to stay tuned and listen up for those nuggets that are going to be in there in our conversation today.
But I appreciate you bringing that up, David. This episode will come out after the release day, but the day we’re recording is the day my book comes out. It’s called Start with Strategy, and it’s basically a step-by-step guide to help investors of all experience levels develop a business plan or an investing plan that will help you figure out what your specific goals are, what real estate strategies are going to help get you to those goals, and even develop a buy box and action plan to help you achieve your long-term financial dream. So it’s a really good book, I’m really proud of it, and if you want to check it out, you can go to biggerpockets.com/strategybook.

David:
All right, let’s bring in Dave Mackin. David Mackin, welcome to the BiggerPockets Podcast. All right, to start the show, tell me a little bit about you as a lender. How big of a broker do you work for?

David:
We’re actually a pretty small broker, mom-and-pop shop per se here in Colorado. We have about eight employees at this point working on growing and such, but we have about 70 investors that we’re signed up and talking to. So yeah, super awesome being a broker, love doing it.

David:
So are investors your main clientele or do you work with other people?

David:
I guess I should clarify when I say investors, I use that, that’s a term I should be careful with. Different banks and financial entities that we can go to for funding, and that’s what I mean by investors that clients can shop around to see what kind of pricing and programs that they can use.

David:
So then who’s your main clientele? Who are you typically servicing?

David:
Well, I got into it starting off with house hackers, of course, I started house hacking myself and through speaking to my own lender when I started house hacking. I got super intrigued by the financial side of things. What intrigued me the most was that I think a lot of people go into the home buying process thinking, okay, I go to a bank, they tell me how much I can buy and then I go get a loan. What piqued my interest was, wait, there’s so many options, right? It’s not just, okay, tell me what my monthly payment is, how much I need to bring to the table and let’s get it. It was the, wow, there’s so much to consider here on all the options I have. I wanted to learn more about that. Curiosity took me in the direction of falling backwards into the mortgage space.

Dave:
David… And David, can I call you Mackin? Can we just go by last name, guys? This is going to be very confusing if we all call each other David.

David:
Call me Mackin. I’ve been called Mackin my entire life, so you can go ahead and call me Mackin.

Dave:
All right, Mackin.

David:
You can call me Batman.

Dave:
Mackin, what we want to talk about today and are excited to get your take on is what it takes to afford a home and how much a person can afford. So can you just give us some of the basics of this equation? How do lenders think about how much they are willing to lend to an individual?

David:
The high level I’ll start with is that the way that a lot of real estate agents and lenders go about pre-approving in the first place leads into this. A lot of times it’ll say, “Hey, you’re pre-approved up to 500,000 or you’re pre-approved up to 600,000.” The way that I like to think about it is, you’re actually just pre-approved for a monthly payment. Everything about being pre-approved comes down to debt-to-income ratios and therefore comes down to what your monthly payment will be on a particular property. And then when you go even further into it with house hackers, it’s what numbers actually make sense, not necessarily just what you’re approved up to, right? If you’re going to the high end of the ratios, that property might not make sense for the potential for cash flow. So there are so many things that go into it. It’s the principle of your loan, the interest on top of it, the insurance on the property, the mortgage insurance you’re getting for what product you choose, the taxes, all those things are going to go into what you can actually afford and actually get pre-approved for.

Dave:
So for our audience who doesn’t have the full equation and breadth of knowledge to take each one of those things and come up with what house they can afford, where should they start thinking about? Is it income, is it the property? What is the determining factor that people should be considering?

David:
I think it’s a combination of one, their income and finding a basic price point for what makes sense for them. There’s a lot of rule of thumbs you can start with until you actually go work with a lender and the rule of thumb for approval is going to be just around 50% of your debts plus what your housing payment is going to be to your income. And that’s a rule of thumb because it’s a lot more specific than that depending on what program you’re going with right there. If you go FHA, you can go up to 56.99% on the backend, 46.99% on the front end, right? I’m already going too far there. So a good rule of thumb is to think, okay, take 50% of my gross income by the way, and what I’m looking at properties, doing my own calculations on what the monthly payment might be on that house. That’s what I’m going to be approved for. But then as a house hacker, you need to go further and understand, does that monthly payment warrant the potential for cash flow at some point.

David:
You know, David, one of the things that I notice with our brokerage is that people think that the credit score is what’s going to determine how much money they get. There’s an obsession with credit score. Everyone’s like, I have great credit, or I don’t have great credit, or I’m trying to get my credit up another four points and there’s all this effort looked at it. But debt-to-income ratio is a way bigger piece of how much you’re going to be approved for and therefore what neighborhood you can get into. And that has a huge, huge impact and ramifications on the future wealth when you look back 20 years, if you buy into a terrible neighborhood versus a great up and coming neighborhood. And that’s one of the things I covered pretty heavily in my book Pillars of Wealth was debt-to-income ratios are based off of your debt and your income, right? Keeping your debt low and saving money, playing defense is very important.

Dave:
So ratios work.

David:
An income is how much money you make. So you could just simplify everything by saying, how do I go to work every day and become better at my job and to make more money. And how do I remain disciplined and avoid lifestyle creep by keeping my eyes on the prize, which is buying investment properties, which is the third pillar, right? And if you just follow those principles, I find it amazing that everything starts to fall into place. It also, you don’t ever have to worry about your credit score, because if you’re managing your money well, you don’t ever get yourself so into debt that you can’t make your payments. What’s your thoughts on that?

David:
Well, I’m glad that you said that because there’s also a lot of people that get into house hacking look at conventional versus FHA, and if you end up looking at the FHA strategy, FHA allows for credit scores in the mid 600s. If you’re somebody that’s starting at that point, you can look into the FHA option. And by the way, FHA is the option that allows for a higher debt-to-income ratio. So the credit score part of it more determines what option you may end up going with for a particular deal. But like you said, if you are somebody that is in tune with personal finance in the first place, things take care of themselves, like you said with credit score and things like that.

David:
Another common problem that I’ll see is people think that if I go to lender A, they’ll pre-approve me for this much, but if I go to lender B, they might pre-approve me for more. That’s very, very rare because almost all of these loans eventually go to the same investor, like you said, that has hard and fast rules that are put in place because they’re all insured by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, where the companies that aren’t doing those loans, they use those guidelines to underwrite. Is that something that you’ve seen as well, that shopping to different lenders, you may get different service, they may have different loan programs, but you’re not necessarily going to say, well that one pre-approved me for a million even though this one only pre-approved me for 500,000.

David:
That’s a rabbit hole. That might be another episode on shopping different lenders and why you might see different pre-approval amounts from the different lenders, but the end result, you’re right, ends up being the same. I think it’s important to shop multiple lenders for the sake of making sure you’re working with someone that will help you plan for the future in your investments and someone that you like talking to and someone that knows what they’re doing as far as helping you with the investment side of things and finding the right lender and shopping lenders to do so is smart in that way, but shopping just for the sake of trying to get a bunch of lenders to nickel-and-dime their way down to approve you for more quote unquote is a waste of time.

Dave:
All right. So we’ve covered some of the basics. We now know that the debt-to-income ratio is the most important thing lenders look at when figuring out how much they’re willing to lend to you. And in that regard it’s actually more important than credit score, but how can you get the best possible rate? David Mackin breaks that down right after this.

David:
And welcome back, everyone. We’re here with lender David Mackin, talking about the ins and outs of lending.

Dave:
When you think about the pre-approval process, like you said, for each individual debt investor, let’s just call them the people who actually provide these mortgages, they have similar underwriting processes, but when it comes to rates, does that change? Because I’ve seen personally pretty different rates when I shop around between providers.

David:
There’s a couple of different factors that go into why different investors are going to give you different rates. For one, as a broker myself and David Greene knows this as having a broker shop himself, you’re going to get different interest rates from all the different investors that you might or banks that you might send the loan to, right? They have different equations and algorithms for what they need to make before they might sell it to another servicer. They have more employees maybe, and they need to make more on the upfront interest to pay those employees to do their work. It all comes down to margins. And by the way too, when you’re working with different brokers, brokers have their own margins for commissions involved in the rate that you’re seeing as well too, and they can defer. So you are going to see different rates and what the cost for rate is when you shop for different lenders, different mortgage brokers as well as them actually going out and shopping to different banks and financial entities that are going to finance your deal.

David:
Yep, that’s a great point. So I think what you’re getting at there, David, you said something earlier I wanted to cover. I think what you were saying is, there are lenders that will tell you, we will pre-approve you for this much to get your business. And then once you’re in contract and they’re actually talking to the underwriters, they’re like, “Actually it’s not going to be that, there it is.” And by that point, you’re already halfway into the escrow, what are you going to do? You’re just going to be pissed, but you close with them. So sometimes finding the person that tells you what you want to hear is not wise. It can be bad, and the same come with rates.
In general, the lower rates are lower because the loan officer is going to be making less money or the brokerage makes less money. And while that, no one’s going to be mad about that, oh, I get a better rate because you make less money. You may find yourself working with a person who doesn’t know what they’re doing. They’re new, they’re inexperienced, they’re going to mess things up, they communicate terribly, that same thing you found.

David:
You have to consider how much is this person worth, right? For investors especially, is this person worth the money because they’re the person that’s going to help me buy multiple properties and build my portfolio and I don’t have to call another lender to do so. I have them on speed dial. And typically you might find a middle ground where someone’s offering really good rates and their service is incredible and what their knowledge is super incredible and great, that’s the person you found and stick with them.

Dave:
I just wanted to ask a clarifying question to you both, because we are talking about rates and the difference between rates and you both talked about something that’s very important that getting a good loan officer is super important, but from my understanding, there’s no reason why a good loan officer should have any higher rates. So it’s cost the same for an investor or a home buyer to work with a good loan officer as a less experienced or less high quality loan officer, right?

David:
It is different between lenders who you’re working with. There is a margin, the amount that a loan officer is making on a loan actually factors into what you are being offered as far as rates. If a loan officer is making more, let’s say for example, you’re looking at, let’s say the same rate across two lenders, you have 7% with one lender, 7% with the other, maybe 7% is costing half a point with one lender and it’s costing zero with another. That means that the lender that it costs half a point is making half a point more on the loan amount than the other lender where it doesn’t cost anything. It’s as simple as that. And so you as a buyer, as a house hacker have to determine is this person worth half a point to work with, because this transaction is going to be smooth, they’re coaching me on my future goals, et cetera, et cetera. And that’s where the difference really comes into play for most situations.

David:
Yeah, that’s a great point. So I’m sure a lot of people here are wondering why would I ever, ever want to pay a half point if I don’t have to, right? My advice there, if you’re a really easy borrower to work with, you have a good job, you have a good debt-to-income ratio, you’re using normal run-of-the-mill loans, you’re going to get approved. It’s not going to be anything tricky. You probably don’t need a rockstar superstar lender. Those are the people that can maybe find the online, click here for a 2.99 rate or whatever and they can roll the dice on that gas station sushi and they got a strong GI track, so they’re probably going to be okay.
But for the people that are listening that are buying investment properties that want to get multiple properties, maybe you’re self-employed, that’s the person that can find themselves in big trouble. If they use the basic loan officer, that’s the cheapest one they could find that does not understand how to read those tax returns, how to argue the case with the lender for why this income should be included or even how to package it together to give it to the underwriter.
I’ll tell you guys what goes on behind the curtains. A lot of the time when you hire the cheapest loan officer you can find, the reason your loan took three extra weeks to close is they did not know how to give the underwriter what they needed and the way they needed it. And every time the underwriter looks at it and says, “I need this thing,” you get bumped back in the queue another week. So would you agree that if somebody has goals of owning more than one property or they’re an entrepreneur, anything that would complicate their file, that’s when they want to get the more skilled professional loan officer?

David:
I couldn’t agree more. In our market, especially two, three years ago when the competition was super high, one of the biggest factors in going under contract was how quickly you could close. If you go and search an article on the internet, at the bottom it says apply now and you end up at some online lender that you don’t even know who you’re talking to, they’re probably not going to be able to guarantee that you’re going to be able to do a 14-day close, sometimes a 10-day close. So in a market like that where there’s a lot of competition for your loan officer, your lender to call the listing agent and say, hey, we can get this done in 10 days, that sometimes is a make or break for being the one that actually goes under contract in a competitive environment.
That means that you are going to be working with somebody that isn’t just a salesperson, isn’t just a intake at a call center. There’s someone that knows what they’re doing on the underwriting side, the processing side, the planning side. They understand all the options that are available to you. There is so much that goes into it and typically that takes more time and knowledge. I can’t remember where this quote is from, but it’s like I heard a story where someone was having a plumbing issue. All these people came in, they couldn’t figure out what was going on.
And then finally they had this guy come in that was a master, been doing it for a long time, comes in, spots it in a second, fixes it in 15 minutes and slaps a $500 bill down on the table. And they’re like, “Wait, what the heck? You did 15 minutes of work. Why are you having me pay $500?” He said, “You’re paying me for the time it took for me to get all this knowledge. You’re not paying me for the 15 minutes of work that I just did there.” And I think the same thing is true in any service industry and especially in real estate.

David:
So on that point, one of the things that we do at our brokerage is, we’re sort of a coach, we are going to coach you through what the best loans would be and how you should pursue if you’re trying to buy more properties, if you just want to buy one property, that’s different than if you’re looking to try to scale. If you’re going to use the BRRRR Method, if you’re looking the house hack, if you’re buying a second home, if you’re getting into short-term rentals, there are different loan programs that work better for those. And sometimes you have to think ahead, once you got four of them, this isn’t going to work, so do we have a plan to switch to something different? For you in the business that you’re running, how is it you’re coaching investors on purchasing properties? Do you talk them through the purchase and make recommendations or are you more of the person who says, you just tell me what you want and I’ll go do what you say?

David:
That’s a great question. The way that I go about coaching, especially house hackers is, here is every single option that you have. We’re going to get on a screen share, we’re going to get in person, whatever, and we’re going to put every option that you have for this next purchase and future purchases on the screen. And together through our conversation, we’re going to break it down into the one that makes the most sense. And the reason we do that is because say, write on paper, FHA makes sense. In our market, we’re a super high purchase price market, right? Cash flow is pretty hard to find in Colorado right now. And the enticing thing that people see is when they’re looking at an FHA loan versus a conventional loan, typically it’s about 10 grand more to go 5% down conventional with closing costs and everything, but the monthly payment is exactly the same as an FHA loan where you’re putting 10 grand less at the closing table, and that’s super enticing.
But then someone has to take into consideration, “Okay, I got this FHA loan. If I’m going to stay in the same market, then I’m not going to be able to use FHA on the next one.” Maybe it makes more sense for them to go, they have more cash in hand now. Maybe they want to go conventional first and then be able to utilize FHA when they turn this property into an investment property and buy the next one as a primary. And so there’s a lot to consider there. And I would say the biggest struggle right now is that difference between FHA and conventional, ever since FHA decreased their factor on their mortgage insurance. It’s a very enticing product now for a lot of people, but there’s a lot to think about with the FHA one.

David:
All right, David has walked us through the debt-to-income ratio and interest rates, but what other variables should investors focus on? Stay tuned for more on that after this quick break.

Dave:
And we’re back. David Greene and I are here with our third David, lender, David Mackin. Okay, so we’ve talked about the main thing about how much house you can afford being your income and the debt-to-income ratio. Obviously rates matter where they are, market rates and what rates that you’re getting offered by your loan officer. Mackin, are there any other variables that people should be considering when thinking through how much they can afford for an investment property?

David:
Definitely the other factor is going to be the insurance that you might get on the property and then the taxes on the property. Those are all going to be considered as part of the debt-to-income because that’s going to be a part of your monthly payment, right? And it actually goes even further. Right now in our state, we had a reassessment period this year for taxes rather last year. It’s early January, I keep doing that. And taxes went up 40, 50% for a lot of people, which is insane. And so they might be able to afford the house that they’re in right now, but when they get hit with that new tax bill and escrow reaches out for them to start increasing their contribution to their escrows, all of a sudden they might be in hot water.
And the same goes for anybody closing on a property before that new tax bill takes effect because we pay taxes in the arrears. They may be buying a property right now and the numbers make sense right now, and then very quickly that tax is going to go up and all of a sudden it changes their numbers completely.
So much like we were talking about working with a good loan officer, working with someone that foresees that and says, here’s what your taxes are probably going to look like in the future, make sure the numbers make sense for those taxes right there. And then the insurance too. I’ll speak on that real quick. You can choose different deductible amounts, things like that. You could have a very low deductible, but your monthly contribution to your escrows for that insurance policy are going to be higher and may affect your affordability. So some people really just want to get into a house and may opt for a higher deductible on their insurance so that their monthly contribution is lower because that might be the make or break for them even getting into the house. So there’s a lot to consider outside of just interest rate and what your principal balance on the loan is.

Dave:
That’s great advice, David. I think it’s something that doesn’t get talked about a lot, especially for newbies. You just look at the price of the house, you look at interest rates, but there are these other costs, and particularly right now as you mentioned with insurance and taxes going up so much that will impact your affordability, I kind of think about states like Texas. I actually thought about investing there because there’s a lot of good fundamentals going on in those markets. But Texas has no state income tax, but their property taxes are super high and it can actually really impact your debt-to-income ratio, it could impact your cash flow. And so that’s something everyone should be thinking about when they’re analyzing deals or approaching a loan officer to talk about what they can afford.

David:
Couldn’t agree more. And, Dave, if you’re someone that’s investing from out of state and you’re not in Texas, cool, there’s no income tax, but that doesn’t really change anything for you as an investor. Higher property taxes absolutely changes.

David:
It actually works against you if you don’t live in Texas, but you invest there because you’re still paying the state income taxes like me in California that are high and I’m paying higher property taxes when you go to Texas, right? So it is wise to be looking at different advantages and on that topic, how you look at your investing will make a big difference on the choices that you make. So there are some people who think buying cheaper properties is inherently better, so buying a house for 500 instead of 550 is wise just because it’s cheaper. But if you’re a house hacker or if you’re an investor, I don’t think that the actual price of the house is what you should be looking at. What you want to be looking at is how much income does it bring in versus how much does it cost.
We’re back to that whole offense defense debt income. So for instance, if you borrow another $50,000 to buy a property at a 7% interest rate, so the house you were going to buy one for 500 instead, you buy one for 550, your principal and interest on that extra 50 grand is about $333. But what if that house that has for $50,000 more has an extra bedroom that you can rent out for $700, right? In that scenario, the more expensive house is the smarter financial option, especially if it’s in a better neighborhood and the price of all your bedrooms, they’re all going to be raising. And so now not only are you getting an extra bedroom, but when rents rise, you have the rents rising on an extra bedroom every single time. What’s your thoughts on when you’re working with house hackers kind of creating that framework for them to be looking at this purchase through?

David:
I think it’s working backwards, right? When you’re looking at a particular property or you’re looking at multiple properties, do a really good analysis on what you think you can make for rent and the strategy that you’re going to use for making rents and work backwards with it. Okay, I go to this property, maybe it’s a five bedroom home, which you can find and I can rent out four of the bedrooms. And some houses in Colorado, you can rent out these rooms for a 1000 bucks, right? Okay, cool. I’m making four grand on this property and in order for me to be cash flowing, then I need to go and make sure that the mortgage on this property is going to be less than and therefore cash flow.
I mean, that’s the simple equation of doing cash flow. I just think that it just needs to be worked backwards, and that’s going to help you not waste your time going and seeing too many properties because you’re analyzing the rents on it first as a house hacker, right? Your typical home buyer’s going to go, “Okay, I want 30% of my income to be my housing expense.” Cool. Simple, right? It’s a little bit more complicated for a house hacker, but not too complicated. Start with the rents, work backwards, see what the payment’s going to be.

David:
What’s your experience been like with the type of people that are crossing your desk that are looking for real estate? Are you seeing more primary home buyers? Are you seeing more house hackers? I’m wondering because with rates going up, cash flow is getting a lot harder to find, so I’m wondering if you’re seeing less investors and more creative approaches.

David:
I’m seeing in my market is that house hacking is no longer investment only strategy. I actually think that for the new wave of home buyers, that house hacking is simply just the way to buy a home right now, especially in higher price markets. The word is out, everybody. House hacking isn’t just this secret sauce or anything like that. I’m not sure people are necessarily knowing the term house hack, but they’re going in and considering, “Okay, I’m someone that is young. I already have roommates that I live with at a rental property, I rent myself. What if I can ask them to come and move with me into a house that I buy, rent out the other rooms and I’m not paying nearly as much as I am right now in rent.” You may still be paying something out of pocket, but I’m seeing more people that are your normal home buyers doing the house hacking method to simply just have a lower housing payment. That’s it.

Dave:
One thing I want to call out about house hacking though, is that I think sellers are catching onto this. I don’t know if you guys have noticed this, but I’m seeing that sellers are pricing duplexes outside the realm of reason for a non-owner occupant. And so if you look at a duplex and the cash flow that it can generate or the rent to price ratio, they’re getting a little bit outsized, at least in the markets that I’ve been looking at over the last couple of months. And I noticed that on the listings, all the listing agents specifically pitch them as house hacks because as you guys said, the numbers work for house hackers, but they don’t work for investors. And so that’s good for a house hacker, but it also means you might be paying up a little bit.

David:
Something interesting happened with multifamily homes recently, and that was when Fannie Mae came out and said, “You can put 5% down on multifamily.” That announcement alone increased the value of multifamily homes, in my opinion. I mean, all you did was increase demand, right? You brought more people interested in multifamilies because of that, right? And so I agree that there’s a bit of a… I don’t want to say bubble button overpricing on the duplexes, the triplexes, the quadplexes, but if you go buy a 2-1, 2-1, you can find single family homes that are four bed, two bath, and you can rent out all the rooms and you’ll probably cash flow more on just buying that single family home and not have to pay a premium because it’s simply a duplex.
A lot of people that I work with that start to analyze the multifamily start to realize really quickly that potential for increasing cash flow is not as likely as they thought it was, right? And it depends on the property, but I do not blame the listing agents and the sellers on those multifamilies for marketing it that way and trying to get a higher price point. Of course, they’re going to do that. That’s what their job is to do. And people will go buy it with that strategy in mind. But don’t underestimate the single family home when there’s a shiny element to a duplex or a triplex, right?

David:
Yeah. I remember as a kid that people who own duplexes, there was sort of some pity for them. Like, oh, you’re poor, how sad. Too bad you can’t buy a real house, and you had to buy one of those pretend houses. It was like you didn’t have a motorcycle, you had a Vespa. It looks kind of like one, but we all know that that’s not anything that anybody wants, right? The duplexes were the Vespas of the housing industry and now they’re the Ducati. Everyone’s fighting to get those duplexes. And I think that it’s worth noting the reason that small multifamily is so popular is because housing’s so damn expensive. When you really don’t want to pay that full four grand a month and you can get a duplex or a triplex and take a big edge off of it, it makes a lot of sense. It’s going to put them in demand that they’re going to sell for more.
But the reason that housing is so expensive is we don’t have enough supply. Things can change if they figure out a way to incentivize home builders or technology improves to where 3D printing of houses becomes a thing that can happen all the time and boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, housing just starts to go up all over the place. Those people that really wanted that duplex are going to find it’s very difficult to sell, because someone’s going to say, “Why would I pay all that money for a tiny little duplex that’s 90 years old, when I could go buy the big brand new shiny house that just was 3D printed for half as much money?” And as investors, we always have to be aware that the trends change and what is popular now may not be popular in the future, and what nobody wants right now might be something that people wants in the future. But what doesn’t change is financial responsibility. Making more money was always going to be a result of increasing your value to the marketplace, and that’s going to encourage personal growth, and I’m here for it.

David:
That’s certainly a perspective thing too, of understanding where you’re at and enjoying it as well. Not everything is about what money can buy you, it is about freedom. It is about independence. And money goes, when all is said and done, you die. But the independence that it can give you while you’re still here is where the value actually is. So I couldn’t agree more with that.

David:
Dave Mackin, anything that you’d like to say before we get you out of here?

David:
One thing I will say is that anybody that may not be buying a property right away, or they’re really in the analysis period or they’re just interested in real estate, if you have any inclination to get into real estate as a career, that is something that is super powerful for me. You can buy deals and you can have as many deals as you can, and you’ll learn from all of those. But the opportunity to work with a lot of investors and go help them and be a part of their transactions, the knowledge that you gain from it is exponential, as compared to just doing your own. And so anybody that has any interest in it, I would highly encourage getting into it. Making sure that you can still qualify for homes when you get into it is another conversation, that is the danger of it. So I will asterisk with that. But if you’re someone that has that time, two years to get into it and get going, I would recommend it.

David:
But a good loan officer will help you find a way to make income and find loans that you can use, whatever income you make to qualify as opposed to a mid-one. So don’t go mid. You heard us mention on the show, my book, Pillars of Wealth: How to Make, Save and Invest Your Way to Financial Freedom, and Dave has a book out as well, Start With Strategy. You can find both of our books at biggerpockets.com/storemine. Woo woo.

Dave:
Woo woo. Yeah. Today is the day.

David:
Right on. If you want to learn how to make and save enough money to buy a house, and then once you’ve got it, you’re like, “Well, what should I do with this money? I need a strategy.” Those are two books that you should go pick up. I’ll let you guys get out of here. This is David Greene for Dave, my Stratego Amigo, Meyer, signing off.

 

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China’s financial institutions urged to support property developers

China’s financial institutions urged to support property developers


An artwork juxtaposing Chinese yuan cash bills with the China’s flag

Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty Images

China’s financial institutions should provide strong support to the country’s beleaguered real estate sector and not “blindly withdraw” financing for projects facing difficulties, according to a senior Chinese financial regulatory official.

His strongly worded comments follow the Chinese central bank’s largest cut in mandatory cash reserves for banks since 2021. Beijing also recently released a fresh policy mandate aimed at easing the cash crunch for Chinese developers, which have struggled under the crackdown on the sector’s bloated debt.

“The financial industry has an unshirkable responsibility and must provide strong support,” said Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration, at a press conference in Beijing on Thursday, according to a CNBC translation.

“We all know the real estate industry chain is long and involves a wide range of areas. It has an important impact on the national economy and is closely related to people’s lives,” he added.

China’s real estate troubles are closely intertwined with local government finances since they typically relied on land sales to developers for a significant portion of revenue.

HAIAN, CHINA - JANUARY 24, 2024 - A staff member of the personal finance business area of a bank counts and arranges the RMB deposited by customers in the daily account in Haian city, Jiangsu province, China, Jan 24, 2024. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough?

The property market slumped after Beijing cracked down on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth in 2020, weighing on consumer growth and broader growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

“For projects that are in difficulty but whose funds can be balanced, we should not blindly withdraw loans, suppress loans, or cut off loans,” Xiao said. “We should provide greater support through extending existing loans, adjusting repayment arrangements, and adding new loans.”

Still, Xiao cautioned the latest relaxation of funding guidelines, which is only valid through the end of the year, is designed to be targeted.

“China’s state banks will issue operating property loans to real estate companies on the basis of controllable risks and commercial sustainability,” Xiao said.

“Eligible property developers may then use these loans to repay existing loans of real estate companies and open market bonds they have issued,” he said.

China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting Friday morning that emphasized again that local regions could adapt the newly release property policy guidelines as needed, according to official reports.

While not new, the meeting is among several this week — pointing to official efforts to speed up implementation of recent policy announcements.

Bank of America and KraneShares strategists discuss the impact of China's PBOC easing on its markets

Beijing’s stimulus announcement on Wednesday also marked a rare decision to release news at a press briefing, suggesting the Chinese government is signaling its intent at a time when the country’s stock markets are teetering on the edge of capitulation.

Such policy moves are typically only published online and disseminated via state media. But the People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the forthcoming reserve ratio requirement cut and real estate policy in person.

Last week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced the country’s annual GDP growth figure in his address at the World Economic Forum in Davos — a day before China’s National Bureau of Statistics was scheduled to release the country’s official GDP print and other data.

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.



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8 Reasons to Add Turnkey Real Estate to Your Portfolio in 2024—And 3 Red Flags to Consider

8 Reasons to Add Turnkey Real Estate to Your Portfolio in 2024—And 3 Red Flags to Consider


This article is presented by REI Nation. Read our editorial guidelines for more information.

Are you searching for your next big wealth-building strategy? Looking for ways to strengthen your portfolio? If so, it may be time to add passive investments to your portfolio if you haven’t already, specifically through turnkey. 

Turnkey real estate is an increasingly popular option with a range of benefits, making it an appealing choice for individuals seeking passive income and long-term wealth accumulation. Typically speaking, a turnkey property is fully renovated and ready for immediate rental or occupancy, often managed by a property management company, either affiliated with your turnkey partner or a trusted third-party vendor. 

Compelling Reasons to Go All-In on Turnkey Real Estate

Produce income faster 

Turnkey real estate provides investors with the advantage of immediate income. Since the property is already renovated and typically has residents, you’ll start earning rental income on day one. 

This is particularly appealing for investors looking for a steady stream of passive income without the delays associated with buying, renovating, and marketing a property. When you already have residents, there’s no interim where you’re without rental income. 

Time efficiency 

Turnkey investments save investors significant amounts of time and effort. The biggest time saver is the fact that many of the intricacies that you must learn in order to be an active real estate investor require time and commitment. 

With turnkey real estate, finding, purchasing, and renovating a property, which are each of the most time-consuming aspects of real estate, are handled for you, so you bypass the stress. Additionally, investors won’t have to do so much heavy lifting on the front end. Your provider has already hand-selected rental properties for their market. 

Professional management 

Turnkey real estate investments often come with the added benefit of professional property management services. Property managers handle day-to-day operations, such as resident relations, maintenance, and rent collection. This relieves investors of the burden of managing the property—making it as passive as possible! 

We can’t stress enough just how valuable skilled property managers are. They keep things running smoothly so you can focus on the big picture. Since no passive investment is ever 100% passive, your biggest responsibility here is managing the relationship with your property manager. As an investor, holding a management company accountable is your top priority. 

Mitigated risk 

The risks associated with turnkey investments are generally lower than those of traditional real estate ventures. The property has already undergone renovation, reducing the likelihood of unexpected repairs or maintenance issues. Additionally, having residents in place at the time of purchase or, at a minimum, the property on the publicly available list minimizes the risk of extended vacancy periods. As you acquire more properties and diversify the income in your portfolio, this risk diminishes further. 

Diversification 

As an asset class, real estate has a low correlation with traditional financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds. That makes it a choice addition to your portfolio if you’ve relied on more conventional options. For investors, the addition of turnkey real estate—easily the most passive strategy involving full ownership of a property—hedges against inflation, generates passive income and grows in value over time. When done right, turnkey real estate is a phenomenally low-risk strategy to diversify your total portfolio. 

Predictable returns 

The stability of turnkey investments stems from the predictable returns associated with rental income. With a property management team in place, investors can anticipate a consistent flow of income without being directly involved in day-to-day operations. This predictability can be especially attractive for those seeking reliable long-term returns. 

Market access 

Turnkey real estate investments offer investors the opportunity to participate in real estate markets that may be geographically distant. This is particularly advantageous for individuals who want to invest in markets with strong rental demand or potential for appreciation without the need to be physically present. Your local conditions may or may not be conducive to successful rental investing; however, if you choose to partner with a turnkey provider, they will unlock market access with conditions better suited for immediate and lasting success. 

Hassle-free entry into real estate 

For individuals new to real estate investing, turnkey properties provide an excellent entry point. Professionals handle the complexities of property acquisition, renovation, and resident management, allowing novice investors to participate in real estate without the steep learning curve. You can reap the immediate benefits and take the time to acclimate to real estate investing without being left to make novice mistakes.

Red Flags to Consider 

At the same time, investors should consider these red flags when investing in turnkey real estate.

What does “turnkey” even mean? 

The biggest tripping point for many investors is defining and understanding what they are getting into when purchasing a turnkey property. Two decades ago, there was one definition, and only a handful of companies offered the service. Today, it is the Wild West when it comes to using the word “turnkey” for marketing, and there are as many variations to what turnkey means as there are companies. There is even a cottage industry that has developed involving turnkey promoters.

In other words, the word “turnkey” has evolved into a marketing term, meaning many different things to many different people. This means it pays to do your homework and exercise patience. As with any real estate transaction, there is no need to rush as you are learning and gathering information. It’s important to make sure you are speaking with a company that owns the properties they are selling and not simply marketing the strategy with a lesser definition than the full service you expect. 

In-house vs. third-party management 

When we first started marketing our company and used the phrase “turnkey real estate” in 2007, having in-house management was a value-added proposition. The point of having in-house management managing a home purchased and renovated by the seller was to prevent the typical finger-pointing that occurs when different companies handle different parts of the transaction. 

What is the motivation of a sales company to assist with an underperforming property six to 12 months after the transaction? Often, there is none. The same goes for a management company that inherits a poorly renovated or overpriced property that can’t possibly meet the expectations set by the sales company. What motivation do they have to improve the situation? 

I am adamant that the best approach for an investor is to work with companies that keep all the services and responsibilities under one roof. Over the past two decades, about the only thing 

One thing I can say with 100% certainty about real estate is that property management is the single most important element to your future success. 

Am I prepared to be passive? 

I love meeting with other investors, especially those who like to share and discuss all things real estate. As a property manager with a $2 billion portfolio under management, I have had quite a number of these conversations, and I am always amazed at how quickly I can turn an investor away from buying turnkey. 

I know that sounds backward, but I see it as my job to attract ideal clients—not clients who are never going to be able to be passive. If you love the day-to-day hunt for new properties, meeting with contractors, or even swinging a hammer or slapping paint, then you must ask yourself the serious question: Will you be able to give up all those decisions to someone else?

The color to paint the walls has already been decided. The flooring has already been picked out, and the resident has already been qualified and signed the lease. There is nothing left for you to do but connect with your management company each month and make the deposits match. 

It is not much, but it is important, and I have met two kinds of investors who don’t match up well: those who think that there is not enough decision-making for them and those who don’t understand why they need to manage the manager. If you can accept the limited but important role, then turnkey, passive investments may be a great route to take in building and diversifying your portfolio. 

Final Thoughts

While no investment is entirely without risk, turnkey properties provide a relatively headache-free way for investors to benefit from real estate investment. As with any investment decision, thorough research and due diligence are essential to ensure that the chosen turnkey property aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance.

This article is presented by REI Nation

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Ready to add turnkey real estate to your portfolio in 2024? If so, now’s the time to invest with REI Nation. Where you invest, and they handle the rest.

Discover stress-free real estate investing with the largest family-owned turnkey investment company, REI Nation. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, they are dedicated to helping you achieve your financial goals in the world of real estate investing. Visit our website to start your turnkey real estate journey, where your success is their commitment.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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The “Frozen” Housing Market Reignites in 2024

The “Frozen” Housing Market Reignites in 2024


The “frozen” housing market is about to get blowtorched as competition is set to heat up in 2024. With lower mortgage rates, bigger investor tax benefits, positive economic sentiment, and tight inventory, homebuyers will need to act fast unless they want to make the same mistakes of 2021 and 2022. Are the bidding wars and price hikes coming back? Will we look back at 2023 as an “affordable” time to buy a house?

Welcome to the first On the Market Headlines Rumble Show! We’re putting Dave, Henry, James, and Kathy in a metaphorical cage match as they each bring hard-hitting headlines to knock each other out with bigger and better news. No physical punches will be thrown, but psychological piledrivers will be aplenty in today’s show.

We’ll talk about the “frozen” housing market reigniting in 2024 due to stiff competition, low inventory, and falling mortgage rates. Next, why Americans are giving up on college degrees and going straight into employment. A MASSIVE investor tax write-off could make a comeback as bonus depreciation goes BACK on the legislative table. Plus, why Blackstone, everyone’s favorite hedge fund, is buying BILLIONS of dollars in housing in the US and Canada. 

Dave:
Hello everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I’m your host, Dave Meyer, and today we’re going to try a new format for the podcast, and we’re calling it the Headlines Rumble Show. And to help me out with that, we have Kathy Fettke, Henry Washington, and James Daynard joining me.
Did any of you guys watch WWE or WWF when you were a kid or now maybe you still watch it.

James:
Huge fan.

Dave:
Currently? Currently a huge fan?

James:
No, when I was a kid I had matching outfits with my buddy and we had our own tag team. I’m not even going to go what the name was, but it was something else.

Dave:
Please don’t. We’re going to have to bleep it out.

Kathy:
We need these photos.

James:
Yeah, I was a big Bret, the Hitman Heart fan.

Dave:
Oh, yep, of course.

Henry:
Dude, I was so into WW, it was WWF back then. But yeah, my dad used to always order the pay-per-views and we’d sit there and watch them. And every place I went to that had face painting, like for little kids and girls, I would get Ultimate Warrior face paint every time.

Dave:
Oh, that’s awesome.

James:
The greatest.

Dave:
Just by the fact that you called it Pay-per-view, because that’s what it was, just dates us all so much that we remember what Pay-per-view was.

Henry:
Now everything is Pay-per-view. FYI.

Dave:
Yeah, I guess that’s true. Well now James and Henry for being fans and anyone else listening, you might recognize this format. We’re calling it the Headlines Rumble Show.
It’s kind of like the Royal Rumble from professional wrestling. And basically the way it’s going to work is each panelist is going to bring a headline and we’re going to put two of them head to head.
So we’re going to start with two different headlines, vote which one is best, and then discuss that one for three minutes. And then after three minutes, a new headline will be presented and we can decide do we want to bring in the new headline or do we still want to continue talking about the first one?
Perhaps because more important or you have more to say. The idea behind this is to narrow down all the headlines we brought to the most important topical information about real estate, about economics. So that makes sense to you guys?

Henry:
Yeah.

Kathy:
I feel like I’m in a disadvantage because I had three sisters and we weren’t watching WWF, but hey, let’s do it.

James:
Let’s rumble.

Kathy:
Let’s rumble.

Dave:
All right, let’s rumble. All right, Henry, you are getting tagged in first. So what is your headline?

Henry:
Yes. First headline I have here is, Three Reasons Why The Frozen Housing Market of 2024 is actually more competitive than before the Pandemic, Zillow says.

Dave:
Okay, and that’s going up against Kathy. Kathy, what is your headline?

Kathy:
Mine is Invitation Homes to Pay 3.7 million in California Rent Gouging Case.

James:
I’m going with Henry’s.

Dave:
I’m also going with Henry. I don’t want to hear about invitation homes.

James:
And also what’s new? California over-regulating the landlords. This is not a new story, this is just what it is.

Dave:
Well we can’t talk about that.

Kathy:
This is why it matters to the listeners.

Dave:
You can’t talk about it Kathy.

Kathy:
See, I told you I don’t know this rules.

Dave:
Henry, your turn you win. Why do you bring this headline Henry?

Henry:
Well, I brought this headline because as we all know, the Fed said they were going to lower rates this year. And as investors, all of us, I think we’ve all shared the sentiment that as rates come down, more buyers are going to enter the market.
And so we know that that’s going to create another pandemic-y pre-pandemic kind of rush into the market. And so I thought this kind of fit along those lines, but what this article is saying is that the U.S. Housing market, despite having low inventory levels and high mortgage rate and rising home prices, remains super competitive.
And that it relates this to three factors. The first factor being faster home sales. So it says now that homes are selling 50% faster than pre-pandemic norms. So if you think before the pandemic, what did the market look like when we all thought it was a very normal market and now homes are selling faster than that.
The second point it brings up is that there’s stiff competition due to limited inventory. And we all have been talking about this since the inception of this show. We know there are not enough houses, particularly single-family homes for the amount of people that want to either buy or rent homes. And so that creates competition because everybody’s bidding for these same homes. I’m starting to see even more headlines of hedge funds buying single-family homes again.
So the rates are coming down and everybody’s starting to start to snap up what’s out there right now. And so the limited competition, but that’s going to drive prices up. And then the third point is the impact of increased home values and mortgage rates.
So as we all know, all of these things are going to lead to home values rising, but what the article is saying is that the typical mortgage payment was up 7.5% year over year in December 2023 and 106.5% higher than the pandemic average.
So I don’t know that we’re going to see any cooling anytime soon if rates drop or continue to drop, because they’ve already dropped some.

Dave:
That’s something interesting you said Henry, I hadn’t really thought about that. That days on market, which is how we measure how quickly home sales have fallen a lot over the last couple of years. And I wonder just absent of normal market dynamics, if that is now embedded into the psychology of home buyers, that even if the market, there’s more inventory or more supply coming online, if people are still going to act with quickness now and try and bid because the last couple of years that was necessary and people now think that that’s normal.

Henry:
Yeah, that’s actually a good point. And I think a lot of people have, what’s that when you slap someone’s hand and they get to their points and pull it away.

Dave:
All right.
Henry, we’re cutting you off unfortunately. Maybe we have an opportunity to keep talking about this unless James’s headline beats you out. James, what’s your headline?

James:
My headline is mortgage applications for new homes soar year over year despite a seasonal dip.

Dave:
Okay, Henry, Kathy, what do you want to talk about?

Kathy:
I agree that that’s a good headline, James, but it kind of falls into Henry’s. So I think we just have to stick with Henry’s like what is going on?
The bigger picture. It’s not just new homes, existing homes, sales are definitely down from where they were, but it’s really interesting to look at before the pandemic and are we really selling more homes than we did then We get so used to just the last few years without looking at the bigger picture a lot of times.
So I’m sticking with Henry’s.

Dave:
I’ll just stick with Henry’s too. I want to hear, hear what Henry was about to say. So we’re just going to vote you down, James, and Henry, you’ve got the floor once again. And remember who voted for you Henry, because me and Kathy have more headlines come up.

Henry:
All right, yeah, Dave, to your point, I think a lot of people, I would say the majority of first time home buyers don’t know what it was like to buy a home pre-pandemic, right? And the majority of second time home buyers are now hitting a time period where they probably bought their first home around pandemic time, maybe just pre-pandemic. So people don’t really know what the market was like before everything got crazy.
If they’re only buying their first maybe their second home and if they’ve gotten their hand slapped every time they were putting in offers before, that’s probably the way they’re going to treat this new market. Even if their seasoned agent is telling them, Hey, we don’t have to do that right now.
They don’t want to get beat out if they fall, and remember, home buyers who are not investors are not buying based on numbers like investors are. They’re buying based on emotion and on what fits their family and that’ll always cause them to want to maybe bid more than maybe what the house is worth because they don’t care what it’s worth. They care, this is what my family needs.

Dave:
Do you guys think we’re going to get in this situation where if a house sits on the market for more than seven, it either goes within seven days or it’s going to sit on the market for a really long time because people think it’s spoiled and we’re going to have this polarization of how long houses stay on the market?

James:
Yeah, I think right now when you’re listing properties, if they sell on that first weekend, they’re actually getting very, very competitive multiple offers. But I do find this article kind of funny because it’s a frozen market that’s kind of hot at the same time, it’s competitive.
So it’s like what does that even mean? Talk about confused buyers. But I feel like in today’s market we saw the rates skyrocket, the market did not collapse, median home price went up, and now the buyers are that great migration that goes on in Africa where the buffaloes are just kind of hurting and that’s what’s happening.
And every time you see a sale on the market, the buyers get a little bit of FOMO and it gets hot real quick. It’s like every data point that absorbs and there’s so little inventory, it only takes one. And we’ve seen this pretty consistently, even on our town home sites we’re selling, they’ll sit on longer than seven days, but then one clicks and they all go.
It’s a domino effect. And so I think if you hit that seven-day window, you’re good, but if not, you reposition your listing and they still come back as well.

Kathy:
Yeah, and it just depends on price point and affordability in the area. If it’s priced right, it’s going to go quickly and if it’s priced wrong, people are going to have to adjust. There’s still some people who think their houses or the property’s worth more than maybe it is, but properties, again, if they’re priced right, they’re going to go really quickly. And affordable housing is what’s needed most.

Dave:
It’s funny because back in the day I feel like it was 60 days is when a house would start to get a little bit stale. So now it’s just funny to think that if the house has been sitting on the 10 days, you’re like, oh, there’s something wrong with it, I don’t want to even touch that.
Or at least like a home buyer would. An investor’s probably like that’s what I want. But it’ll be interesting to see if supply comes back, if some of the other parts of the market return to normal dynamics or if we’re permanently now in this very altered state.
All right, the next headline is mine. I wanted to switch it up and not talk about the housing market. So mine is that Americans have lost faith in college. So do you guys want to keep talking about Henry’s or do you want to talk about Americans losing faith in college?

Kathy:
Well Dave, I just don’t know what that has to do with on the market. So I’m going with Henry’s.

Dave:
That’s fine. James?

James:
I think we can beat this frozen market to death at the end of the day, there’s nothing for sale. I’m going to go with, I want to switch the conversation. I want to hear some college, why people don’t want to go to college.

Henry:
Yeah I do. I want to hear about college because this is kind of a hot button topic for me. I’ve had some opinions about this myself, so definitely want to hear about this.

Dave:
Now I definitely want to do it. I want to hear your opinions. Well there was a recent article in the Wall Street Journal called Why Americans Have Lost Faith in the Value of College. And personally I just found this interesting just being a millennial, I feel like growing up you were just hammered into your head that you had to go to college and that was the only way to get ahead.
And now people’s opinions of that are really changing. In the last decade, the percentage of Americans who say they have confidence in higher education fell from fifty-seven percent. So the majority, down to thirty-six percent in just 10 years, which is a lot.
What’s crazier to me is nearly half of parents say they would prefer not to send their children to a four-year school after college. And two-thirds of high school students think they’ll be just fine without a college degree.
So to me that just sound crazy because I grew up in a different sort of environment I guess. But I’m curious what you guys think because personally college was very valuable to me and what I learned and matured a lot.
But was it valuable? $250,000 valuable? I don’t know. I think that the price has gone up so much that even though you learn something, these sort of cost benefit analysis has really, really changed. So curious what you guys think.
If you can get a good job, have a good career without college or you still need to go. Henry, you teased your opinion so I got to hear them.

Henry:
Oh man. Oh man. Look, I think that what was valuable about college before is that most of the employers who were going to offer jobs saw value in that person having a degree. And so it made it very difficult to get a high paying or a well paying job if you did not have a college degree because that was one of the first things, some employers wouldn’t even consider your application if you didn’t have a degree.
And it used to be that they wanted a specific degree, your degree had to be in whatever field that that job was in. And as time has moved on, and access to information has become more convenient with the internet and online. And one thing a lot of people don’t talk about is the pandemic forced everyone to get comfortable with online education. Right around the time of the pandemic, not everybody was comfortable going to school online.
There were some institutions who had online classes and some didn’t. There were weren’t as many online gurus “teaching things,” because not everybody was comfortable paying somebody some money to teach them something. Well, the pandemic forced everyone to have to learn online. It kind of fast forwarded that industry quite a bit.
And so now you can get an education as valuable or if not more valuable than college for a fraction of the price if it’s concentrated in one particular industry. And so all that to say, is that businesses have now started to notice that some of my best employees don’t have a college degree.

Dave:
Oh god, this is so ruthless. I wanted to hear what Henry had to say. Henry, now you have to propose another one. So what’s yours?

Henry:
All right, the headline I’m proposing is Congress Proposes Tax Breaks and Significant Limits on the ERC.

Kathy:
Oh yeah, yeah. I want to talk about this. This is good. I want this.

Dave:
I’m going college. James, what do you think?

James:
I’m kind of sticking on college.

Kathy:
Oh man.

James:
I think there’s important things people need to think about about attending college.

Kathy:
Oh, but the tax breaks, man. The tax break. Wouldn’t you like to get the hundred percent right off back, find short-term rentals.

Dave:
Henry, do you want to finish your own thought or do you want to move on? This is going to come down to you.

Henry:
Oh, okay. Let me take my own bias out of it. Our listeners are probably seasoned real estate investors and so they would probably care more about the tax benefits, but man, I would love to talk about the college. Maybe we needed to have a whole show dedicated to this so I can get on my soapbox.

Dave:
You can’t talk about it anymore. Henry. Forget it from your mind. Talk about tax breaks. Go.

Henry:
Oh man. So the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways means committee have proposed a bipartisan tax legislation framework with significant changes to the tax code. This includes modifications to the employee retention credit, and in the article they break down what each one of these major changes are.
But let’s be serious guys. There’s only one of them in here that we all want to talk about.

Kathy:
Yeah, let’s talk about it.

Henry:
And those are the changes to the bonus depreciation Section 168K. It extends the ability for businesses to claim 100% bonus depreciation for investments. So we were losing bonus depreciation slowly year over year with it supposedly being phased out by, what was it, 2026 or 2027. We weren’t going to have bonus depreciation anymore. And now this proposal would bring back 100% bonus depreciation retroactively for 2020.

Kathy:
Bring it back baby.

Henry:
We can go back to last year and get a hundred percent bonus depreciation. And I don’t know about you guys, but I need that.

Dave:
So explain bonus depreciation, what it is. So if people don’t know.

Henry:
So bonus depreciation, in a nutshell is every asset has a useful span. Everything is returning to the dirt essentially, right? So everything is depreciating and so there is a scale at which each individual item depreciates, some depreciate over longer periods of time, some depreciate over shorter periods of time. What the 100% bonus depreciation does is it allows you to take all of that depreciation and use it as a write-off in year one.

Dave:
Got it. And so it was being phased out now it seems. Has it been voted on or is this just there’s bipartisan support for this?

Henry:
I don’t believe it’s been voted on. I just believe it’s been proposed and yes, and I would argue that everybody who would be voting on this owns assets. So we’ll see how it goes.

Kathy:
It does say bipartisan in the article so that yes, I agree with Henry that I think the politicians would like this too.

James:
I think the big thing about the bonus depreciation is it will bring a more surge to the multifamily market. The big benefit of bonus depreciation is on your big income years you can drive down. I know for me when I’m having large income years, I’m chasing that bonus depreciation. I’m trying to get my tax liability down.
And so I think it could be bring another surge of investors trying to place money, offset their gains and it could actually grow the multifamily space pretty rapidly again.

Dave:
James, have you ever had not a low income year?

Henry:
If he did, I would argue that the number, he would say that low-income year would not be considered a low-income year for me.

Dave:
Still better than my best year, probably.

James:
2008 was definitely a low-income year.

Dave:
Okay, fair enough, fair enough. So we have to move on to our next headline. Kathy, can you unseat Henry please?

Kathy:
Okay, we’ll just go with U.S. single family housing starts plunge in December.

Dave:
I’m voting for you Kathy because Henry’s on a roll and we got to take him down a peg.

Kathy:
Thanks guys.

James:
Yeah, I’m voting for Kathy’s just because we started a bunch of new construction projects, so we got it ripping.

Dave:
All right, Kathy, why’d you bring this story?

Kathy:
Well, I brought this up because we need new supply for prices to come down and stabilize. And so when you see headlines like U.S. single-Family Housing starts plunge in December, that exacerbates the problem.
And I know that California’s coming out with a lot of new legislation to make it easier for new homes to be built, and specifically affordable homes. It’s so hard to build homes cheaply these days. And for the average person who really needs it to not be a multi-million dollar home.
But starts did plunge. And right here the article says, single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of home-building fell 8.6%, to a seasonally adjusted rate of one million twenty-seven units. So twenty-seven thousand units. So this is well below where it needs to be.
Multi-family starts have come down as well. And a lot of this has to do with the high cost of borrowing. It’s so expensive to get construction financing that builders just backed off, but hopefully in 2024 this will change now that we’re seeing a reversal, a Fed reversal, the Fed pivot potentially cutting rates next year and hopefully the cost of borrowing coming down as well.

Dave:
James, you said you’re building though, so you, you’re bucking the trend.

James:
Yeah, I think the big key to this stat is, I mean the reason housing starts are down, is the permit timelines have taken a lot longer when you’re trying to do density. When you’re a builder, the more density you’re putting on, the longer your permitting takes.
And with the cost of money being at it’s all-time high for developers, or not all-time highs, but all-time highs in the last 20 years, people have avoided those projects, and what’s happened is the confidence has been coming back and builders are selling their product off. The sellers have also changed their mind on how they’re negotiating terms.
And so what’s happening is as a developer, you can get permitted sites closed, which adds more in the pipeline. And so there’s this gap in time, but that gap in time is going to make the market rip because there’s going to be a shortage for this nine-month window.

Henry:
I think one of the things that’s been holding up new home construction is the high interest rates which make the holding costs on the land. So if you’re building density, you got to buy a big swath of land and it takes a long time from purchase of that land to when you’re actually selling homes and making, and getting some money.
And so those holding costs are eaten up builders. I’m buying two single family homes right now from a builder because he needs to take the money from these two singles and use it to hold onto another more large scale project that they’ve got going on.
So as interest rates come down and the holding costs come down, you’ll start to see more builders enter the market because they can afford to hold onto some of that land and they’ll be able to sell off their existing projects and put more capital in their pockets so they can continue to build.

Kathy:
And this article also shows that-

Dave:
Oh, all right. Well then this is an opportunity for James to get on the board. James, what’s your second headline?

James:
Second headline is Blackstone is back. Blackstone is moving back into the rental homes.

Kathy:
I vote for this one.

Dave:
Okay, Kathy, you’re satisfied with your own one headline run. James, you’re voting for yourself. I’m just going to vote for this too, but Henry, just for the record, which one would you have voted for?

Henry:
I don’t really care about Blackstone, so I would’ve voted to stay on topic.

Dave:
All right, well then you’re going to have to listen to us talk about something you don’t care about. James, go ahead. What’s this headline?

James:
All right, so I think this is a fairly big headline because Blackstone acquired Triclone, which is a huge single family housing investment company. They’re public and now they’re taking them private again, they paid $3.5 billion because they just can, and…they just write the check, no big deal.
And the thing is they are taking over a billion dollars in development pipeline, and to where they’re going to be bringing it to market. So this purchase of the portfolio is not only in the US but it’s also in Canada, which I think makes them the largest single family home buyer and owner in North America because they’re also picking up $2.5 billion in apartments from Canada.
And the reason I think this is so important is, I will say I can confidently, I feel confident that the guys in the back in Blackstone are much smarter than me, and they know how to read data better, they know how to forecast better. And when they can move that kind of money, they can also move things.
They can kind of change the market and it’s a big sign if they feel confident in the single family housing market that we could see. I think we’re seeing a drastic improvement because they did cut off, as far as I know, they were not acquiring for the last 12 to 24 months, and that’s a huge faucet they just turned on.

Dave:
Well, I’m sort of with Henry saying he doesn’t care about these things. It’s not like it’s not interesting. I just think people really overestimate how important this is to average investors because they own one to 3% of houses.
So if you’re in a market where they’re actively buying, it certainly matters, but it’s never really impacted me and it’s not going to impact I think investors on any sort of national scale.

Henry:
Yeah, I agree with you Dave. And what I do think it means for the average everyday investor is you’re supposed to follow the whales if you want to make money. And if you remember before interest rates started to go up on this show, we were talking a lot about how single family homes are the new cool asset class.
They weren’t cool before, but now that inventory is so limited, they were starting to become cool again and then all these hedge funds started to notice that and started to snap them up.
So this should just be your sign as an investor that hey, these whales are buying these properties. So holding onto something that is of limited inventory is always going to net you some money in the long term.

Kathy:
Yeah, if the headline said, Blackstone’s dumping 38,000 US rental properties, that would give us all a moment of pause, but it’s the opposite. And that was always a fear is that these big hedge funds would just dump all their properties all at once, which they would never do.
Why would they do that? That would only hurt them and the value of the properties. But this is evidence that that’s not what they’re doing. They’re back in.

Dave:
All right, last headline is mine. And again, I just did something not housing related. It is, Americans are suddenly a lot more upbeat about the economy. You guys want to talk about Blackstone or the economy? Henry, what’s your vote?

Henry:
The economy.

Dave:
James?

Dave:
I’m going to go with the economy.

Kathy:
Yeah, Dave, you got a hundred percent here. You are the winner.

Dave:
Okay.

Kathy:
Look at you.

Dave:
The fact that I just won on this is very surprising because at least on Instagram or YouTube, anytime I talk about anything positive, it never gets any views. People only want to hear something negative. So I appreciate you guys giving some space to hear something positive.
And that is that the consumer sentiment index has really spiked up over the last couple of months. We’ve talked about this a little bit on the show, but the University of Michigan takes a consumer confidence poll, consumer sentiment index every month. And for a while it was really low.
So just for an example, in June of 2022, it’s the lowest it’s been since the year 2000. It was at a reading of 50, which is like half of where the index is set to, now it’s climbed all the way back up to almost 80. And it’s important to note that this is still below where the index was from 2012 to 2019, but is a big improvement of where we’ve been over the last two months.
And this tends to be a good sign for the economy because when people are feeling good, they spend more money, which spurs the economy. Obviously that could mean more inflation if they spend too much money.
But what do you guys make of this? Is this good news in your opinion?

Kathy:
Yeah, I was kind of surprised to hear that because there’s been so much negativity and so much fear that there’s a recession looming that recession didn’t happen in 2023. They’re talking about 2024, but there’s really no sign of it yet.
There’s been wage growth and now inflation is down. So the wage growth is above inflation. So maybe that’s it. They’re making more money than the prices are going up now, just recently. So maybe they’re spending more.

James:
And we like that they’re spending more, especially if you’re a flipper or a developer, because the more positive people are about the economy and the outlook and what they’re feeling. I mean, one thing I have learned since this pandemic is our economy is very emotional, and it goes in waves.
If the general sentiment is that everyone’s feeling good, you just see a lot of competition people, I hate to say this, but get a little bit more careless with their spending. And then for us as investors, it allows us to sell them for more. And so anytime there’s a positive light, it’s just good. It makes things transact more. We might see more inventory out of this because people think they can actually go onto another house and they don’t feel trapped.
And so it can loosen up the inventory as well. Perception is key. And I think this is a very positive sign, at least in the short term. It is a very 30, it’s very surgy, so who knows, they might hate it next month, but as of this month, that’s a good sign.

Dave:
I think we’ve been talking about it for a while that at a certain point people just get used to the new reality and inflation was really bad. It’s still a little bit higher than the Fed wants it to be, and it’s still painful for people because inflation was way higher than wage growth for a while.
And so people were losing power, but people get used to it. And as Kathy said, that has reversed for the last couple months. It’s just a little bit above it, but it does make a difference. And the article also does point to gasoline prices going down, which always has a big impact on business, but a lot on consumer feelings is how much they’re paying at the gas pump.
And since those have come down, that’s probably contributing to some of this positivity.

Henry:
I’m looking forward to it. Not because, well, obviously I’m looking forward to it because I feel like my homes that I’m selling will sell for more and sell faster, but I’m also looking forward to it because I believe it’s going to open up access to money. I think people are going to want to have their money out there and working as they feel more confident in what’s going out there.
And so I want to use it as an opportunity to start to secure private money funds that I can use on rainy days. And I want to start securing more local bank funds and deploying those so that I’m able to build up access to money in a time where people feel confident so that if things change, I’ve now built up my buying power.

Dave:
Now that’s just a good idea. Get some dry powder when people are feeling good. All right. Is that the end to a rumble? That was the most peaceful end to a rumble I could imagine. We were all just like, yep, we’re done.

Kathy:
I think we have to learn to fight more, you guys.

James:
You know, maybe we should be allowed to a counter argument to change everyone’s mind, so it’s little bit more, a little bit more rumbly.

Henry:
A little bit more funny.

Kathy:
Yeah.

Dave:
Someone has to play devil’s advocate. That might be fun.

Kathy:
Oh yeah. You know what? That’s actually something we do at Real Wealth is you have, everybody wants to be so agreeable, so you have to assign somebody to disagree with everything and poke holes in everything because yeah, it’s too easy to do the group agree.

James:
That’s what they call the heel in WWF. It’s the bad guy.

Kathy:
The bad guy. All right.

Dave:
I have a few friends who would be perfect for that job who just disagree with everything in front of them. They would relish that opportunity.

Henry:
And for those of you listening right now and you’re wondering, is this really how they come up with show ideas? The answer is yes. This is literally us figuring out, we’re going to have new show ideas. You’re welcome for the behind the scenes look y’all.

Dave:
Okay, so next episode, we’re going to have someone play the heel. We’re all going to be wearing Luchadore costumes and it’s going to be an actual physical brawl.
Well, in reality, we would love to know what you think about this episode. We are always trying to think of new fun ways to share information with you. So if you like this episode and you’re watching it on YouTube, shoot us a comment below or leave us a good review on Apple or Spotify if you like what we shared with this episode.
We really do appreciate those positive reviews. Kathy, Henry, James, thank you all so much for joining us and thank you all for listening. We’ll see you next time.
On The Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kailyn Bennett. The show is produced by Kailyn Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at Bigger Pockets for making this show possible.

 

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